Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“God forbid we should ever be twenty years without such a rebellion. The people cannot be all, and always, well informed. The part which is wrong will be discontented, in proportion to the importance of the facts they misconceive. If they remain quiet under such misconceptions, it is lethargy, the forerunner of death to the public liberty. … And what country can preserve its liberties, if it’s rulers are not warned from time to time, that this people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to the facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time, with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure.” – Thomas Jefferson

Letter Re: Deflation Followed by Mass Inflation?

Dear Jim
I agree with Michael that deleveraging, the reduction in credit, means falling price levels in the short run – but not for 4 or 5 years!
He wrote: “Credit can be destroyed. If the value of your house goes down by $100,000, then that $100,000 is just gone. It doesn’t exist any more. It is not in the money supply. This is deflationary”
Back to basic definitions – inflation is an increase in the money supply, deflation is a decrease in the money supply. Generally inflation leads to rising prices, and deflation to falling prices. The price of houses is the symptom of deflation, but does not affect the money supply.
“Now there is dwindling credit, severe unwillingness to lend, and a Fed that is contracting the ‘money’ supply.”
Whoa there! Check the latest M1 money supply chart which shows a ~45% increase in just two months! This is an exponential “hockey stick” chart that Al Gore did not need to fudge the data on!

Bernanke and the Fed were keeping inflation low, 2% or less, (trying to clean up Greenspan‘s irresponsible inflations). But now the massive bailouts have blown that plan out of the water. Thanks to Gary North to help us to “follow the money”.

Unless this horrific, banana-republic-style inflation of the money supply is corrected, inflation of prices will be back with a vengeance. Remember that in the Great Depression the money supply was anchored to gold – not a good comparison to today’s fiat money that can be created at will.

Of course the timing will be tough to predict as the velocity of money determines prices, as well as just the supply of money. (I.e., how fast is money spent – 10 times per year or 100). And Fed decisions are political and psychological in nature, not just economic, and hence not easy to predict. But overall, in the race between the deflationary effects of deleveraging, and the unlimited ability of the Fed to succumb to political pressure and inflate, I’m betting on Ben Bernanke‘s helicopters. Regards, – OSOM

Five Letters Re: Full Capacity Magazine Price Increases are Already Here

Sir,

Be advised, Cabela’s here in Fort Worth, Texas is sold out on all ammo except 22 LR and shotgun shells. A friend who went there today was amazed to find all ammo shelves emptied. The last time I went there (shortly before the election) the place was a mad house. Standing room only, many people turned down on their background checks (or delayed). I considered myself lucky to get in and out of there in an hour. I got my new toy, no problem and plenty of ammo “at sale price”. Cheaper Than Dirt’s prices have doubled or tripled. They will not honor their printed catalog prices and I consider them as garbage now. They have lost my business.

Thanks for your outstanding book. I am a Viet Nam veteran and have gained additional insight in what is to come and preparations to make. I lent my original copy to some younger Marines and it is still making the rounds. I bought two additional copies later. I check your site almost daily as do most of my friends who have awakened. Keep up the good work and God Bless you Sir! – Robert A.

 

Jim:
Reader David B. may boycott Cheaper Than Dirt for raising prices on full capacity magazines. But he has little understanding of basic economics. CTD would be stupid not to charge what the market will bear. Thanks for your great blog. I check it every day. – Ira W

Jim,
For many months, I have been imploring family and close friends to get prepared by stocking up on items likely to be banned under and Obama Administration. Folks like Diane Feinstein will be energized and empowered under an Obama Administration to do what they tried to do but couldn’t with the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban.
The chickens have come home to roost and as you pointed out in your recent post (11/7), supplies of ammo and magazines are drying up fast. I purchased a few “top-off” items late last week and even today. But what I’m seeing from some of the traditional suppliers is truly frightening. For example:

AIM Surplus – 10-to-14 business days for them to process orders received today. Who knows what will be left by the time they get around to the newest received orders.
Natchez Shooters Supplies – Rationing Glock full/high capacity mags.
Several local friends have told me of long lines at traditional brick and mortar stores that sell these items.

In order to help out fellow SurvivalBlog readers, may I suggest they and their friends look at alternative source suppliers? For example, there is a goodly supply of ammo being sold on forums such as AR15.com, GlockTalk.com and similar forums. Find a nearby seller that has what you want and buy it. Similarly, online suppliers like LA Police Gear, 44Mag.com and OMB’s Express Police Supply are excellent and dependable sources. I bought 10 Glock M18 33 round.mags for under $27 each delivered from OMB today. That won’t last long! On AR15.com, there are a number of reliable suppliers advertising in the Ammunition forum. For past experience, I have found G2GTactical.com to be a fast, reliable supplier with reasonable prices.

I could go on but you get the idea and I hope your readers will to. The clock is ticking and some folks are way behind the power curve.
All the best! – Jay in Florida

 

James–

My gun show report for today is as follows.
As a friend and I pulled onto Highway 2 from 9 heading to the Monroe [, Washington] fairgrounds we hit a terrible traffic stoppage. It took 35 minutes to travel the last six miles. Every east bound car was pulling into the fairgrounds–all of them. We get there and my friend who is not a club member has to wait to pay to get in the gun show. It was a 45 minute wait line to get in. The membership enrollment section was bang up packed.

I fought my way to the ammo department for X’s AK ammo. It was all gone except for some soft point. I called him to see if he wanted some and when I went in to get it.But it had already sold. When I left the show, all battle rifle ammo was gone. It sold out in one hour.

I did not see many sporting rifles for sale for the first time in a long time.[ The dealers brought] nearly all battle rifles and semi-auto assault style rifles.

Magazine prices have already climbed by about 7 bucks per magazine with the average price now around 25 bucks. They were $13.50 each in June of this year.

There was a general air of urgency. You could feel it and it was hard to resist. It was soon evident that all the important stuff was going to be off the shelves and into closets around the county. I suspect it will be more then a month before factories can make up what has been sold around the nation in the last few days.

Even though magazines and ammunition was off the shelves and at inflated prices the rifles themselves. They were not marked up at all. I was happy to see that..

My friend C. bought an original late 1700s flintlock from middle eastern origin. Looked like it was on a camel’s back many times… It had an integral folding bayonet the length of a short sword. I told him the ATF would be grinding that bayonet off next year because it makes the old musket an assault rifle and the weird curving stock could be mistaken as a pistol grip –another evil feature that will call for men in black coming in the windows and doors next winter. He looked a bit like he was having a stroke and I remembered I should not speak to men in there 80s in so a casual and dry mouthed way. Think so? he asked.
I said let’s hope I really am joking and he sincerely agreed. So did the 20 guys who stopped to listen to the quick exchange and admiration of the ancient piece of machinery.

It was still a good day even though I bought almost nothing because everything I wanted was gone.

I found only two AK magazines made from steel, in acres of guns. I saw plenty of plastic mags but X. did not want any of those for his AK.

All the PMAGs in the world must be sold out now…. If it said “Magpul”, then it was soon sold.

Got some good books from the Militia Of Montana (MOM) table

All in al, this served as a first hand look at what is being reported on the news every night. Every round of battle ammo is now gone. Thanks Mr. Obama:. Look what you made us do! Think of the money being made. Let’s all hope our new supreme leader is busy messing with nationalizing the auto industry rather then dreaming of ways to pave streets with our liberty. – KT

Hi Jim,
While I completely agree that one should stock-up on full capacity magazines, I don’t think you should read too much into the “Cheaper Than Dirt” (CTD) prices. The company is just poorly/inaccurately named. It may simply be a coincidence, but MidwayUSA has many magazines on sale now.
Here are Midway’s prices for the items you listed:
Glock Model 20, 21, & 22 full capacity factory magazines: $23.99

Glock 33 rd. 9mm magazines: $34.99

I went directly to the Beta CMAG web site and found the Mini-14 drum for for less than CTD’s price–$260 directly from the manufacturer.
Deals can still be had if folks search around and act quickly. Regards, – James S.

 

JWR Replies: There are still a few bargains out there, but supplies are obviously getting spotty. The folks at CDNN mentioned that they have sold out of all of their Springfield XD magazines, with the exception of the .40 S&W magazines. Adam at HKparts.net said that they now have 200+ orders pending, yet they still have good quantities of HK USP pistol magazines on hand. I heard that .44Mag.com has had a huge volume of sales, yet they have not yet noticeably increased their prices. (But I did note they now have their CMI M14 magazines and all of their Saiga magazines on back-order.) Supplies are definitely drying up! I hope that people took my advice back October, 2007: The Falling Dollar–Sheltering Your Assets in Steel and Alloy Tangibles. In today’s world, any top quality full capacity magazines are a fine investment.

Odds ‘n Sods:

A correction to yesterday’s post: There were actually two bank failures announced by the FDIC on Friday. Here a link to the announcement of the second one.

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Lead bullets under fire

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Lee C. sent this: On Concerns Over Gun Control, Gun Sales Are Up

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The latest reading selections from Cheryl, our Economista: Automakers Struggle to Survive Past Mistakes — GM Could Be Bankrupt in a Matter of Months — China May See Severe Economic Slowdown — Latvia takes over 2nd largest bank as crisis hits — US Jobs in Full Recession Mode — Shoppers See Prices Slashed Up To 70% — Corporate Bankruptcies Rising Fast — Sheep Rustling Soars as Economy Fails

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“For a quarter century, those who recalled Charles Mackay’s [non-fiction book] Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds and its many successors, and pointed out that uncontrolled speculation always ends the same dismal way, were told that they ought to shut up until they learned something about economics. Sober warnings from distinguished scholars were drowned out by a chorus of cheerleading, while less prestigious voices were pushed out to the fringes of the blogosphere. What is now painfully clear is that those marginalized voices were right all along, and their warnings could have spared us a massive economic disaster if the pundits and politicians who dismissed them had listened instead.” – John Michael Greer

Notes from JWR:

We are pleased to welcome four new advertisers: Mara Helland & Co., P.C., PreparednessChristmasGifts.com, Carter Cutlery, and Milk on the Moove: Here are brief introductions:

Mara Helland & Co., P.C. – Mara is a CPA that specializes in discreet accounting and tax services for clients throughout the US and for Americans ex-pats abroad. She works from her home in western Montana.

PreparednessChristmasGifts.com – Offering a wide range of preparedness products.

Carter Cutlery – Murray Cater is an Oregon-based master blade maker, who had 18 years of training in Japan. His knives are both eminently practical and pieces of art.

Milk on the Moove. Makers of retort packaged (shelf stable) milk products that are ideal for supplementing food storage programs. And yes, I checked: All of their products are made in Logan, Utah. All of the milk comes from local farmers, and is free of hormones such as BST. Nothing they sell comes from China!

Be sure to take a look at the web sites for each of our advertisers. By giving them your business first, you’ll help support SurvivalBlog!And of course if you do place an order, then please mention where you saw their ad.

Letter Re: A Suggested Checklist for Preparedness Newbies

Here’s a beginner’s list I made for my [elderly] father today:

Food
{Brown pearl] rice does not store well. Neither does cooking oil so that needs to be fresh. No, Crisco doesn’t count.
Coconut oil would be your best bet.
Wheat berries – 400 pounds – bulk order at your local health food store
Beans – 400 pounds – bulk order at your local health food store
Mylar bags
Spices
Salt
Country Living grain mill
propane tanks, small stove and hoses to connect
freeze dried fruits, vegetables, eggs and meat if you can find them.
Water
500 gallons of water [storage capacity. Rainwater catchment is a common practice in Hawaii]
Water filter

Cooking
Cast Iron Cookware

Firearms
FN PS 90

10 PS 90 magazines

5.7 handgun

10 FN 5.7 handgun magazines

5.7 ammo

Training: Front Sight four day defensive handgun course. (Note: eBay sometimes has course certificates for $100!)

Body armor: Nick at BulletProofME.com

Medical
Personal medications
Augmentin antibiotic
Up to date dental work
Painkillers
Bandages
Iodine
Anti-fungal spray

Finances
$10,000 cash in small bills
100 one-ounce silver coins (GoldDealer.com or Tulving.com)

Transport
Gasoline in 5 gallon cans or better yet, this.
Gas stabilizer
Mountain bikes
Air pump

Miscellany
Flashlights
Rechargeable Batteries
Battery charger
Hand held walkie talkies
Topographical map of your area
Spare eyeglasses
Shortwave radio
Home generated power
12 volt battery system
Good backpack
Good knife
Good compass
Good shoes
Bar soap
Toothbrushes
Dental floss
Toilet paper
Fishing kit
Salt licks
Connibear traps

Regards, – SF in Hawaii

JWR Adds: The following is based on the assumption that SF’s father also lives in Hawaii: Because of the 10 round magazine limit for handguns, I recommend that Hawaiians purchase only large bore handguns for self defense–such as .45 ACP. Both the Springfield Armory XD .45 Compact or the Glock Model 30 would both be good choices. The “high capacity” advantage of smaller caliber handguns is not available to civilians in Hawaii, so you might as well get a more potent man stopper, given the arbitrary 10 round limitation.

Letter Re: Deflation Possibly Followed by Mass Inflation?

Jim,
I believe that we are in for deflation, not inflation. A simple error that most people make when considering this topic is language related: When discussing actions of the Fed they talk about ‘printing’ money. Well, the Fed (actually the Treasury) hardly ‘prints’ any money at all. In Zimbabwe they print money. Lots of money with lots of zeroes. Here, they just increase the number of zeroes in a computer. The difference is profound. When there is a lot of currency floating around then people use it to buy stuff. More currency with higher values means more currency chasing the same amount of goods and that means inflation. The currency does not go away. If fewer goods are on the market, the same amount of currency is there chasing it and prices go up. The currency doesn’t get destroyed.

In the US the amount of credit used is orders of magnitude more than the amount of currency in circulation. Credit can be destroyed. If the value of your house goes down by $100.000, that $100,000 is just gone. It doesn’t exist any more. It is not in the money supply. This is deflationary. Further, if the bank repossesses your house and then sells it to someone else, the difference in sale price has an effect on the banks ability to lend. If they lose $100,000 on your house then they have effectively lost the ability to lend $1 Million because of the fractional reserve system. That $1 Million is not in the money supply any longer. That is deflation. And, of course, the amount of money that will vanish in exactly the same way as part of the derivative mess is orders of magnitude larger than the amount to be lost due to housing.

As can be seen by looking at virtually anything in the last few years (gas, oil, corn, gold, wheat, houses, cars, the Dow, etc.), prices for everything have gone up while there was credit in the system and banks wanted to lend. Now there is dwindling credit, severe unwillingness to lend, and a Fed that is contracting the ‘money’ supply. Value/dollars/money is vanishing at an unprecedented rate. Prices on everything are coming down hard. This is deflation. Your dollars are becoming more valuable, not less. Hold on to cash.

I know this is counterintuitive, and I am an abject Austrian regarding economics. But, the majority of people (including many Austrians) are fooled by the difference between an expansion of cash and an expansion of credit. Weimar Germany, Argentina, Mexico, Zimbabwe – these places all created lots of currency and had rampant inflation. We cannot use that as a model. In the Great Depression we had deflation because the Fed contracted the money supply. This is well documented, as are the effects. This is the model we need to use now. The effects this time around will be much worse, they have the same genesis and the same result. People will need/want/hoard cash.

Now, once we are near the bottom of a deflationary cycle (I predict 4-to-5 years from now), who knows what the government will do? At that time they may crank up the printing presses because everyone will want dollars and no one will trust the banks. Then all bets are off. Then we could have inflation. But for now, your dollars are getting more valuable not less. Get what you need in order to get through hard times, but, short of a societal collapse a la your novel [“Patriots“].Some FRNs in a fireproof box in your gun safe (and not in some bank that may fail) are your best bet. – Michael W.

Odds ‘n Sods:

“Nines” sent us this: Another Friday, Another Bank Collapse.

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You probably saw this announcement last month: Bush Calls Economic Summit for November 15. This could portend a new financial order announcement by the G20, either at this meeting or at their next one, early in 2009. I suspect that the US Dollar will lose its primacy as a reserve currency. As the Chartist Gnome told me “this will likely go far beyond ‘a new Bretton Woods.'” A country with these numbers, and these numbers, and these numbers, and these numbers cannot negotiate from a position of strength. The handwriting is on the wall for the US Dollar. Get out of your US Dollar-denominated investments, ASAP! Invest instead in tangibles.

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Tom, who operates CampingSurvival.com mentioned his new educational site: Urban Survival Stories. It looks interesting.

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Bob sent us this article: Dems Target Private Retirement Accounts: Democratic leaders in the U.S. House discuss confiscating 401(k)s, IRAs

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More news and commentary from our Economatrix: Running On Fumes: GM Could Run Out Of Cash — Jobless Rate Bolts to 14-Year High — Main Street Sucked into GMAC Junk Bonds — Financial Meltdown Worse to Come — Across Economy, the News Just Gets Worse — How to Survive the Coming US Dollar Collapse — First Full-Year Slump Since 1940s, Says IMF — Ford Posts $129 Million Loss; Will Cut More Jobs — Cash or Gold? — Just Three ‘Superbanks’ Now Dominate Industry

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

‘If we find our government in all its branches rushing headlong… into the arms of monarchy, if we find them violating our dearest rights, the trial by jury, the freedom of the press, the freedom of opinion, civil or religious, or opening on our peace of mind or personal safety the sluices of terrorism, if we see them raising standing armies, when the absence of all other danger points to these as the sole objects on which they are to be employed, then indeed let us withdraw and call the nation to its tents. But while our functionaries are wise, and honest, and vigilant, let us move compactly under their guidance, and we have nothing to fear. Things may here and there go a little wrong. It is not in their power to prevent it. But all will be right in the end, though not perhaps by the shortest means.” – Thomas Jefferson, Letter to William Duane, 1811. ME 13:29

Note from JWR:

The high bid in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $600. This auction is for a mixed lot that includes:

1.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

2.) A custom-made, fully-stocked EMS Medic Bag from Cajun Safety and Survival (a $212 retail value)

3.) A NukAlert radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value)

4.) A case (6 cans) of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 (96 ounce) cans donated by Ready Made Resources (a $160 value)

5.) An autographed copy of “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” ($24, retail)

See the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction page for complete details on these items. This auction ends on November 15th. Please e-mail us your bid.

Full Capacity Magazine Price Increases are Already Here

Regarding my recommendation to stock up on full capacity magazines, reader David B. noted this in an e-mail yesterday morning: “[The discount mail order dealer] Cheaper Than Dirt [is] already gouging us based on our fear of Obama being elected. Overnight, their price for Mag-Pul [brand AR-15/M16] magazines went from $15.97 each to $29.97 each. Wow. They just lost my business forever.” David’s note intrigued, me, so I just spent some time at the Cheaper Than Dirt (CTD) web site and compared their new prices with their latest hard copy catalog (dated November, 2008). Here is a brief sampling:

Glock Model 20, 21, 22, 31, and 32 full capacity factory magazines were all $19.97. Now some are $29.97 and others $39.97 Ouch!

Glock 33 rd. 9mm magazines were $44.97. Now $49.97 (Note: I bought a pile of these for $26 each, about a year ago, and I’m glad that I did!)

Ruger factory 20 rd. Mini-14 magazines were $59.97. Now $69.97

Beta CMAG 100 rd. double snail drum for Mini-14 were $299.97. Now $399.97

LR .308 19 Round Blued Steel mags made by DPMS (for their flavor of AR-10 rifles) were $39.97. Now $49.97 (But out of stock)

M14 and M1A .308 20 Round Parkerized “Military Style” [commercial copy] were $11.97. Now $29.97 (But out of stock)

AR-15 .223 30 Round, Bushmaster factory mags were $29.97. Now $49.97

FN P90/PS90 5.7x28mm 50 rd. magazines dropped from $69.97 to $59.81 (At least a some good news!)

All in all, I have doubts that the aforementioned price increases were all triggered by CTD’s suppliers. But I wouldn’t go so far as to call the increases “gouging”. Pricing is a function of supply and demand. In a free market, prices eventually reach equilibrium. And I’m sure that the current demand is skyrocketing. I certainly know that my personal demand is! For example, I just placed a “top off the inventory” order with one of my favorite suppliers, CDNN Sports. I was pleased to see that as of yesterday, none of their prices had increased. I did notice however, that they are now sold out of many magazines, including quite a few SIG, HK, and Springfield Armory XD pistol magazines. My advice: Stock up now, while magazines are still available at fairly reasonable prices. I anticipate that there will be some significant shortages for the next few months. But after BHO‘s inauguration in early 2009 all bets are off. If, (as I’ve predicted), an executive order banning importation of so-called “assault weapons” and “high capacity” magazines is enacted, there could be some huge price increases!

Letter Re: Some Changes in American Wholesale Food Distribution

James,
I have a good friend who is an executive in the "food distribution business". They supply restaurants, schools, hospitals, day care centers, nursing homes,,,,,the large quantity food purchasers.

This past week at their annual sales meeting, they were informed of coming changes.

#1–Most food has been delivered in #10 [96-ounce] or one gallon size cans. [The rolled steel for] most of these cans[is] made in China and the cost has increased dramatically in the past several months because of rising steel prices. Effective December 1, the price on an individual empty #10 can is increasing by about 75 cents per can. This means that whatever is in a case of food (six cans) the price will be going up by about $4.50 per case just because of the can price. On some products, the price increase will be as much as 25% because of the can price increase.

#2 In an effort to offset the rising price of cans, many food distributors are making a concentrated effort to switch customers over to buying frozen foods instead of canned foods. The big move is for customers to install commercial food freezers (costing between $3,500-to-$7,000 per location) where they can store frozen food instead of canned foods. The feeling is that with increasing prices on "canned" goods, there will be a long term savings by going to frozen products.

This could have a major impact on the folks that wish to store or stockpile "survival" supplies in cans if emphasis moves to frozen foods. It will also present an interesting situation if we have a major problem with the grid, tons of food would go bad in a very short order.

#2 Small customers and customers in remote locations will be gradually phased out of the delivery system. Delivery costs and diesel prices have made it impractical to service this type of account. I wonder if the same decision will be made about small rural and remote general grocery stores.

#3 Sales people were told to inform their customers that they need to plan and be ready to deal with rapid and un-expected price increases on food products, this is going to become a way of life.

Please pass this on to your readers. – Buckskin in Texas

Letter Re: Did Western Civilization Actually Peak Around 1970?

Jim,
I wanted to comment on something that was mentioned near the end of the Utah home break-in article: The author hit on the idea that TEOTWAWKI already took place in the late 1960s. Possibly some gifted insight.

I’m a member of a regional Peak Oil group. (I originally joined this group a few years ago, in order to learn food-growing skills: You’ve always suggested getting with various groups, in order to learn skills), we’ve begun a spin off group meeting–a ‘meeting of the minds’ so to speak, involving predictive analysis, regarding the collapse of the current civilization.

We were all encouraged to present our own theses, with the material to support it. In my case, I presented the idea that our civilization actually peaked sometime in the early 1970s, for the following reasons ( based on the “fusion” [an MI term] of the open-source analysis of several theories, in addition to my own historical observations):

– The last manned Apollo mission to the moon took place in 1972 (we have not seriously entertained the thought of going back there since).

– Domestic US oil production peaked at roughly 9.5 mbl/d (million barrels per day) in December, 1970, and has since gone into irreversible decline (without going into detail, we now produce roughly what we once did during WWII. In other words, US energy independence is a fantasy). This includes the North Slope of Alaska, which previously peaked in the late 1980s at roughly 2 mbl/d, and now produces roughly just over 700,000 bl/d.

– Nixon’s decision to remove the last aspect of the US Dollar being tied to anything tangible, in 1972 (DeGaulle wanted France’s loans repaid in gold bullion. This was in part a result of the Vietnam War).

– The Arab Oil Embargo of 1973, which permanently devalued the US Dollar.

– The US withdrawal from South Vietnam, with Saigon being overrun by 1975, marking the US military’s first “defeat” (For the real reasons as to why the US got involved militarily in Vietnam, I suggest Googling ‘Geneva Conference’: By international agreement in 1956, Vietnam was supposed to be split in half for only two years, while the country took a popular vote.)

– A lower living wage for the average US worker, since the 1970s.

There are other examples. In my opinion the best author specializing in this area of predictive analysis is John Michael Greer in Oregon, who is critical of Jared Diamond‘s research. (Diamond avoids the Roman Empire, and skims over the Mayan civilization). Greer has concluded that a civilization takes roughly 150 years to collapse–something akin to Winnie the Pooh being dragged down the stairs, hitting his rear end on each step, staying there a brief moment, then hitting the next one

OBTW, I’m reading “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” for a second time, this time flagging it with Post-It notes. – CPT J.E. .(A prior service 96B)

Odds ‘n Sods:

Three readers sent me this noteworthy blog piece: Over 1 Trillion Dollars Worth of Credit Default Swaps Against Governments. The article mentions that there are still $33-to-$47 Trillion (notional) in CDS derivatives still outstanding. This skunk won’t be washed clean until the real estate market bottoms, and all the “Marked to Mystery” paper gets marked to the real market. And, BTW, that bottom may not be for another five years. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The fallout from the nascent derivatives collapse may topple some national governments.

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The latest huge download from Cheryl, our kindly volunteer Economic Editor: Oil Prices Up As Saudis Cut Production — Credit Continues to Tighten in US — Two EU Banks Warn of Tougher Market Conditions Ahead — Naked, Short Failures (from The Mogambo Guru) — Scrap Steel Buyers Cancel Orders As Prices Tumble — Dow Tumbles 443 On Weak Economic and Corporate Data (Post-vote losses = 10% in two-day rout) — Holiday Outlooks Grimmer After Dismal October —Oil To Shoot Back Through $100 — US Long-term Jobless Benefits at 25-Year High —Global Recession, Country By Country — Investors Running Out Of Places To Hide —1,000,000 Jobs Lost This Year (And this is the beginning of a recession?)

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Reader Henry S. mentioned: “The Swiss have produced a free guide to every type of toilet you can imagine. The guide is very Swiss and proper”: Compendium of Sanitation Systems and Technologies (PDF)