"No state or policy can prosper unless the groundwork is moral." – Thomas Masaryk (1850 – 1937), founder and first president of Czechoslovakia
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Notes from JWR:
I just noticed that we are nearing the milestone of six million unique visits. Thanks for making SurvivalBlog such a great success! Please help spread the word about SurvivalBlog. Links to SurvivalBlog in your personal web page and/or in your e-mail footer would be greatly appreciated.
The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $1,000. The auction is for a large mixed lot that includes:
1.) A large “be ready to barter” box of full-capacity gun magazines, from the JASBORR. This box includes: 12 – Used original Bundeswehr contract HK91 (G3) steel 20 round magazines, 6 – Used original FN of Belgium-made FN-FAL alloy 20 round magazines, 6 – Used AR-15/M16 USGI (a mix of Simmonds & Colt made) alloy 20 round magazines, and 2 – New and very scarce original FN (Belgian-made) US M1/M2 Carbine blued steel 30 round magazines (marked “AYP”) . All of these magazines are of pre-1994 manufacture (and hence legal to possess in New York.) These magazines have a combined value of approximately $450. Note: If you live in a state where full capacity magazines are banned, then you must choose to: refrain from bidding, or designate a recipient in an unrestricted state, or re-donate the magazines for a subsequent auction.
2. ) A brand new in box Big Berky Water Filter, with your choice of either four white ceramic filter elements or four black filter elements. This is a $329 retail value, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.
3.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com
4.) A NukAlert compact radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value).
5.) A desert tan SOG Trident folding knife, courtesy of Safecastle. (a $92.99 retail value.)
6.) A case of 12 recent production full mil-spec MRE rations (identical to the current military contract MREs, but without the civilian sale restriction markings). This is a $90 retail value, courtesy of CampingSurvival.com.
Thus, the combined retail value of this combined lot is at least $1,275. This auction ends on January 15th. Please e-mail us your bid for the entire mixed lot.
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Fear and Loathing in America’s Age of ZIRP
You’ve surely heard by now that the Federal Reserve has effectively lowered interest rates to zero. Obviously having learned nothing from the mistakes of Japans’s decades-long recession, Ben Bernanke & Company have instituted their own Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP). By artificially lowering interest rates, many economists predict that the Fed will actually delay economic recovery for many years. ZIRP was a failure for Japan, and I predict that it will be a spectacular failure for the United States.
The Fed could, in fact, lower interest rates below zero, to the so-called “Super Zero” range. Such absurdities are not impossible in this wacky age. Just look at what is already happening (much as I predicted): Using Trillions of taxpayer dollars, the Federal policy wonks and their bankster buddies are attempting to reanimate a collapsed housing marked, defrost a globally frozen credit market, and turn several Detroit auto manufacturers that are bankrupt into corporate zombies. Any shred of fiscal restraint has be thrown out the window. And if you are saying to yourself “super zero rates will never happen”, then ponder this: If you factor in the prevailing inflation rate, then the ZIRP has already created super zero conditions, for all intents and purposes.
Deflation, Then Inflation
We will soon be living in some uncomfortably interesting times. As I’ve mentioned before, we could see simultaneous inflation and deflation. But, in general, I predict that in the US 2009 and 2010 will be sharply deflationary, but that the subsequent years will be distinctly inflationary. You need to be watchful and ready for these sea change shifts. Don’t hesitate to restructure your investments accordingly, once the changes becomes evident. Anyone that hesitates–the proverbial “deer in the headlights”–will surely become investing road kill, wiped out by the onset of rapid inflation.
Where does the Hunter Thompson style “Fear and :Loathing” come in? The fear will be an almost universal visceral reaction to declining stock prices, declining real estate values, and monumental corporate layoffs, in the unfolding deflationary short cycle. In the short term, cash will be king. People will fear getting laid off, they will fear making unnecessary expenditures, and they will consequently hoard their cash and try to minimize taking on new debt. This new mindset of deflation will soon become the norm. Dollars will be systematically hoarded. But not long after, to the surprise of many, cash will suddenly become trash. The citizenry will soon learn to loathe the dollar, since its purchasing power will wither with increasing rapidity as inflation escalates.
The Mass Inflation Trigger
The new mass inflation will be triggered by foreign creditors coming to the recognition that Federal spending for the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) has gone out of control and that the US Dollar is doomed. Once they do, it will start a cascade of events culminating in the utter destruction of the US Dollar as a currency unit. The first indicator will be the failure of US Treasury auctions. This will be accompanied by a sharp drop of the Dollar in foreign exchange. (Watch the US Dollar Index closely!) Then will come news of rapid monetization of the Federal debt. And last will be the rapid stair-stepping of consumer price inflation, well into double digits, and possibly getting out of control into triple digits, once the near hysterical psychology of inflation comes into full swing. (The perception of inflation becomes self perpetuating. This happened in dozens of countries in the last century.) The tidal shifts, first to sharp deflation, and then to rapid inflation will overwhelm many people. I can foresee that having the deflationary mentality suddenly inverted will be just too much for many people. It will be hard for them to mentally “switch gears”, and their net worth will consequently suffer, once stagflation begins.
In times of rampant inflation, holding cash will be foolish. Pensioners and anyone else on a fixed income will have their savings wiped out very quickly. So just a couple of years after getting used to hoarding cash, people will suddenly have to learn to hate cash, in deference to tangibles. Much like the situation I described in the opening chapter of my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”, more and more dollars will be chasing fewer and fewer available products. If the 20th Century taught us anything, it is that these situations can quickly spin out of control.
The Future for Precious Metals
The pendulum swings in manipulated markets tend to be very wide, making wildly exaggerated moves. Witness, for example, the meteoric rise in crude oil prices for the past two years, followed by a veritable crash in recent weeks. I predict that the precious metals market will continue to be in the doldrums for perhaps the next 12 to 18 months, making just modest gains. But then once inflation kicks in as confidence in the US Dollar vanishes, gold, platinum, and silver will skyrocket. My advice follows a simple age-old adage: buy low and sell high. You should begin buying precious metals now, while they are relatively low. If you wait until inflation kicks in, then it will be too late to shelter your assets.
If and when you decide to liquidate part of your precious metals holdings in the midst of a mass inflation, do not trade your metals for greenbacks or other paper currencies–since they all inevitably share the same fate. Trade them only for productive tangibles. Buckle your seatbelt for what will surely seem like a very bumpy roller coaster ride. For most Americans, it will be a ride to financial ruin. But for an astute and perspicacious small minority, it could very well turn out to be a ride to safety and perhaps even to financial independence. Be ready.
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Letter Re: My Preparations are Fairly Complete, So What Next?
Dear Jim,
I have been saving money and selling some of my unnecessary items and toys for a while now and have amassed $42,000. I have plenty of firearms and ammunition, tools, a house that is semi-remote, and a stash of food (which isn’t enough I’m sure). I have paid off my credit cards and only have a house payment left. My job is relatively secure I feel, as I work at a power plant; though once the coal stops moving I wont be needed, I guess. I’m not sure what iI should do with the money I have saved. It would seem there is nothing secure anymore and with the government attacking its own money, the dollar wont be worth anything soon. I’m going to look into gold and possibly some land, but might I ask any recommendations you might have. Thank you in advance! – C.K.
JWR Replies: Your highest priority should be rounding out your larder of long term storage food. I might be biased, but I believe that my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course preparedness course is a good guide for that project. But after you have deepened your larder, you should further depression-proof your life.
Even though you consider your job fairly secure, keep in mind that entering some almost unprecedented perilous economic times. I expect massive layoffs and chronic unemployment in this nascent depression. As Sarah Connor puts it so succinctly: “No one is ever safe.” Anyone can get laid off. You can be an outstanding worker, in a presumably “safe” industry, yet in a depression you can still get laid off or fired on a pretext, for example just to make room for a nepotistic replacement.
I recommend that you take part of your nest-egg and invest it in developing a second stream of income. Ideally this would be a family-operated home-based business. Take a look at the community nearest to your retreat, and see if you can determine what would be a good “niche” business that would be depression proof. Part of the savings that you mentioned could be used for education (to develop a skill, trade, or even a second profession), or for specialized manufacturing machinery, tooling and/or raw materials, or for buying inventory to re-sell or barter. The bottom line is that it takes money to make money.
Keep in mind that if you choose publishing or another mail order venture selling something compact and lightweight, then you can take advantage of a national or even global market. But if you are selling a service or a relatively bulky or heavy handcrafted item, then your market will be essentially local. So choose your venture wisely.
If, after you’ve expanded your food storage program and have developed a home-based bushiness, you still have some remaining cash, Then it should be used to either pay down your mortgage, or invest in precious metals. If you expect chronic deflation, then apply it to your mortgage. But if you expect Uncle Sugar to inflate his his way out of the current economic morass (as I do), then put it in precious metals.
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Four Letters Re: Firewalls, Anonymity, and SurvivalBlog
Two notes about Some Call Me Tim’s excellent recommendation of JanusVM:
1) Use Decloak.net to verify that you’ve done everything right. It uses a whole host of very strong tests to attempt to locate your computer and will find out if you’ve slipped up somewhere. The place you’ve slipped up is almost always DNS but cookies and other things can give you away too.
2) Be aware that this encrypts the traffic you’re sending and receiving, it doesn’t make it go away. Someone listening in can tell when you’re sending/receiving and how much, they just can’t read it. Timing and bulk are circumstantial evidence, true, but they are there. So it is best to keep your subtle browsing small and not be noticed. – PH .
JWR,
As a network administrator. I generally find pleasure in “testing” networks. JanusVM works great when getting past firewalls, but its large size (~22mb) could be an issue. I have found UltraSurf works extremely well. It is fast, 50 times smaller than JanusVM, and most importantly, defeats web filtering and tracking software. It was developed to be used in a certain communist country with a rather large firewall, but is now used worldwide. Its small size and no need for an install make it ideal for quickly dropping onto a system in a cafe/library/school or just simply running in the background on your personal system. I personally have used it in each of those situations.
.
One drawback is that some network virus scanners have been notified to look for it and declare it a trojan to prevent its use on networks. I’ve encountered this once in an Indian Internet cafe (of all places) and once on a university network. To combat this you can do two things. First, keep up with the latest version, as their signatures aren’t tagged by the scanners. Two, rename the file to something like “stamp_collection.exe” to prevent simple name recognition.
All of this is great, but what if the user can’t download it in the first place? Many times the web site will be blocked, but the download itself is available, especially the “.exe” download as it is not linked from the front page. You can also find it on popular download sites (like this one), which will not all be blocked. Emailing it to yourself using a web mail account is an option, but the user will have to rename it to something like “file.txt” as .exe file extensions are usually not allowed attached to emails; just change it back to an .exe extension to use. Once downloaded, the clever user can simply carry it around on a USB [“thumb”] drive or floppy disk to pull out when needed.
Keep up the good work, – Blaze
Jim,
In regards to SurvivalBlog, I am still able to access it via NMCI as of this morning. They have been pretty strict lately due to a Navy/DOD wide virus getting passed around via thumb drives (which have since been banned from use). On the matter of privacy, anyone should know better than to think they will have privacy while using anything that belongs to the government! Before you are granted access to a DOD information technology (IT) asset you sign an “end user agreement” which prohibits the use of third party proxies to bypass firewalls, as well as downloading anything like privacy software. I can say from my own negative experience that the computer types keep track of anything and everything, including attempts to circumvent firewalls by various means. I think the email update idea does have much merit in this regard, especially for the shipboard folks. Keep up the great work Jim! – O.E.
Mr. Rawles,
Thank you for your tireless work in educating the masses about the importance of preparedness. I discovered your writings and your Survival Blog a few months ago and have enjoyed the treasure trove of valuable information that both you and your audience contribute. Fortunately, it has reinforced most of the preparations I have made to date, but it is nonetheless a wonderful resource to be sure. “Patriots” was a great read, by the way, and I have given five copies away to friends, both preppers and non-preppers. The “nons” have since seen the light and are getting started on their way to complete independence and self-sufficiency. While I have been casually encouraging them to do that very thing for a while, it was your work that finally opened their eyes, hearts, and minds. Thank you.
The reason for my correspondence is to make you and your readers aware of one of the most important tools available for the computer user who wants to maintain complete privacy on both his own computer and public computers that he may use while traveling or evading.
Iron Key is a USB flash drive, but it is unlike any other flash drive on the market today. It uses an onboard browser and proprietary hardware and software encryption so information stored on the device or sent or received while online, including web traffic, cannot be intercepted by any else. I will let the folks at Iron Key do the rest of the selling. I am nothing more than a customer of theirs, but I believe wholeheartedly in their product and recommend them without equivocation. Godspeed, – Jason in Central Texas
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Odds ‘n Sods:
Reader Tim L. suggested economist Roger Garrison’s lecture (MP3 file) titled “The Great Depression”. Time notes: “It is very illuminating since it explains why booms and busts happen and also why the Great Depression was much worse than it had to be.”
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David B. recommend this brief but telling article: Outrage in New Hampshire Over Power Outages
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Ron S. pointed us to a great post by Mike Vanderboegh on the importance of having enough ammo for an extended firefight close at hand, already on stripper clips. Those should of course be stored in ammo cans with gasketed lids, but Mike’s point is a good one–you don’t want to fumbling around with loose ammo from cardboard boxes once bullets start flying
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Three pieces of gloomy economic news, courtesy of Jean in England: Up to fifteen retail giants to go bust next month — IMF’s warning to Britain: Bailouts will need to double to prevent economic collapse — End of the Eldorado dream: A plunging pound and property crash have left thousands of expat Britons on the breadline
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This is the last day for BulletProoofME’s SurvivalBlog-only special. The 30%-off special is $580 for the mil-spec Interceptor Outer Tactical Vest. The similar sale that they ran last year for SurvivalBlog exceedingly large response. This special pricing is only available because of a military contract overrun. Note that they are running low on inventory this time around. All items will be first come, first served. The sale ends at midnight tonight. (December 22nd.)
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Jim’s Quote of the Day:
"Men of sense often learn from their enemies. It is from their foes, not their friends, that cities learn the lesson of building high walls and ships of war; and this lesson saves their children, their homes, and their properties." – Aristophanes (B.C. 448-380)
Note from JWR:
My special thanks to Jim in Ohio, who sent a multi-year “catch up” Ten Cent Challenge subscription payment in the form of a 1/2 ounce gold American Eagle coin. Thanks also to Chuck in Georgia, who sent a $300 contribution. That was very kind of both of you!
Two Letters Re: Firewalls, Anonymity, and SurvivalBlog
Dear Mr. Rawles
As a network administrator, I spend a fair amount of time making sure my end users cannot access certain web sites from company computers and data lines. I try to make sure we don’t get too draconian in our filtering practices, I do my best to make sure that not streaming audio or video, social networking sites, or other time killers make their way through the network.
Recently, a friend of mine told me about a tool called JanusVM, a combination of Internet anonymity tools (TOR, PRIVoxy, Squid, and VPN) that runs in a virtual machine. You basically run the VM in a VMWare player, connect a VPN connection from your PC to the VM, and open your web browser. Like a lot of anonymity tools, it isn’t very fast. It is, however, about as anonymous as you can get on the internet. I went to a web site that displayed my current IP address as well as your geographic location and found I was supposedly surfing from Paris, France. One page reload later and I was in Northern California, and then followed by Denmark, all without ever leaving my chair. According to the web site’s very brief write up, the DNS requests are so scrambled that even your internet service provider can’t tell where you’re surfing. That made me wonder if I could use this tool to get around my web filtering firewall as well. I tested my machine to make sure I was blocked out by our firewall by trying to visit Facebook, which is a big no no site around here. Sure enough, it’s blocked. Then I closed my web browser, established the VPN connection to the JanusVM, and re-launched my web browser. Bullseye! I had Facebook access. Not only was I anonymous, I’d also defeated my own web filtering software and firewall.
While this is a great tool, here are a few things to keep in mind.
1. I haven’t tested it on any other system, so YMMV.
2. You need a network with at least one available IP address for the VM. It can be an internal IP, but it still needs one. This keeps it from working with Verizon broadband cards. If someone out there gets it to work with one, I’d LOVE to hear about it!
3. Anonymity is not the same as privacy, or even security. Don’t count on this tool to protect your internet logins and passwords. Hackers have been known to sniff incoming and outgoing traffic on TOR nodes for unencrypted passwords. They may not know where they came from, but they can still read them. If they can figure out where they were headed, you’re in trouble.
4. Your workplace or branch of the military may frown on anyone trying to circumvent their firewalls and web filters, so use this information at your own risk.
– Some Call Me Tim
James,
A couple of notes about your post on [SurvivalBlog being blocked by the US Navy and Marine Corps Internet system]:
* with varied duty hours and multiple shifts, there’s no such thing as only blocking during “duty hours”.
* Anonymizers are just about the first thing blocked by any organization that filters net access. 🙂
* If you have scripting capability on a web host, CGI Proxy and PHP Proxy are both good alternatives. Of course, they’re going to be blocked, too…so you still would have to find an unblocked site that has it or an alternate ISP long enough to download the scripts. People also run services with these or other types of scripts, but they come and go, and as mentioned previously, will most often be blocked. You also never know who’s running them.
* An alternate site works for a while, but it will eventually get blocked, too. It also dilutes your “brand”.
* The XML RSS feed option is probably the best, as it doesn’t rely on working around the restrictions so obviously. I use Google Reader myself, through which I can read web sites blocked by the corporate firewall. It cuts you off from reading comments, but that’s not a problem with your site. Some may be concerned at Google having too much information and choose some other feed reader, but I’m not too concerned with it. [JWR Adds: To avoid trails of “cookie crumbs”, I’ve read that the best choices are the Avant Browser for PCs and the NewsFire Reader for Macs.]
The feed option is good for current reading and keeping up, but for searching on a topic or looking at items in a non-linear fashion a proxy of some sort is a better, more flexible, yet more complicated option. Hope this helps. – Robert
Four Letters Re: Survival Dentistry, by The Army Dentist
Sir:
At the conclusion of his article, the Army Dentist says, “I think this can at least organize a discussion or be a good stimulus for questions.” So (if it’s somehow possible to do this in SurvivalBlog format) I’d like to ask him, In case of an irreversible pulpitis or abscess, if professional dental care is not available, then what are the best tools and techniques to perform a “home extraction”? And how about anesthetics? – Charley S.
Hi Jim,
The Survival Dentistry article by The Army Dentist is a very informative and important piece. Home dental care i.e., dental hygiene, is essential in preventing decay, pain, potential loss of teeth and last, and perhaps least, halitosis. I might add, and am sure that the good Army Dentist will agree, that flossing your teeth, preferably daily, is nearly as important as brushing the teeth.
Something else that can be useful in killing oral bacteria is a mix of 1/2 hydrogen peroxide and 1/2 water for occasional rinsing and gargling. It’s cheap, and it works.
In addition, tooth decay can lead to heart problems, though it’s rare. – SLC
JWR:,
I just wanted to point out to the readers of survival blog that fluoride is a poison. There has been a lot of research done lately about this. Those of us that are health conscious avoid it. It is safer to use xylitol instead. Check out FluorideAlert.org and related videos on YouTube and Google Video. Your Fellow Countryman, – S.B.
James,
I would like to know what the dentist thinks about the use of peroxide as a mouth wash? I am far from a poster child for proper dental care, but since I have started using peroxide mouth wash the hygienist hasn’t found anything for the dentist to work on teeth or gums.- Keith S.
Odds ‘n Sods:
Vice-President Elect Joe Biden: US Economy in Danger of “Totally Tanking’. His solution? More “stimulus”. Just as I warned, the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) will continue to grow to gargantuan proportions that will inevitably spawn stagflation. Mark my words: Deflation in the short term, and mass inflation in the long term will be the hallmarks of the emerging Second Great Depression. Oh, speaking of inflation, SurvivalBlog reader Bill N. sent us this propaganda piece from the 1930s, archived on YouTube. Back then, just $4 billion was considered a massive economic stimulus. My, my! How times have changed.
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Thanks to KAF for finding this: Forget the economy: Killer asteroids could pose real danger
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KAF also sent this article, that ands some details to a previous post: Magnetic Field Hole Could Cripple Communications
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My old friend Sandy recommended this great sermon about America’s debt money system.
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The latest dose of GuD (Gloom und Doom) from Cheryl: Wall Street Sets the Stage for Next Big Heist — Bush Orders Emergency Auto Bailout (Gee, I thought the Constitution said that only Congress could appropriate funds?) — California Unemployment Rate Jumps to 8.4% — Bye-Bye Dollars, Bye-Bye Treasuries — Rescue Loans Guided by Raters Who Graded Subprimes AAA — Billionaires’ Ski Club Stiffs Vendors after Collapse — Glut of Oil Creates Short-Term Storage Problems — Stocks End Choppy Session Mixed — Gold Ends the Week Up Again
Jim’s Quote of the Day:
My son, fear the LORD and the king;
Do not associate with those who are given to change,
For their calamity will rise suddenly,
And who knows the ruin that comes from both of them? – Proverbs 24:21- 22 KJV
Note from JWR:
Today we present a guest editorial by the well-known global economics analyst J.R. Nyquist. I’ve always found his writings captivating. His archives hold some real treasures. This particular article meshes nicely with my observations on the fragility of our modern technological society.
Specialization and Decline, by J. R. Nyquist
Years ago, when the West entered onto a path of decadence, it became fashionable to deny the historical consequences of permissiveness and bad behavior. As the old standards fell away, new standards of “tolerance” and “acceptance” took hold. With the fall of colonial empires and the upsurge of student radicalism in the sixties, the notion of “barbarians at the gates” became outdated. Heaven forbid that anyone should be described as a “barbarian” or as “uncivilized.” The idea that some peoples were more advanced, that some civilizations had more to offer, was no longer an acceptable way to talk. The fall of the Roman Empire, therefore, had to be billed as a “transition.” The barbarians were not the bad guys, civilization did not collapse, and the Romans were hardly degenerate. One should not use words like “decline” or “fall.” Perhaps such words hit too close to home. Better to deny the very history of decadence. Consequently, Edward Gibbon’s magisterial History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire is no longer entirely respectable. In James J. O’Donnell’s expertly crafted, politically corrected version of the fifth and sixth centuries, The Ruin of the Roman Empire, we find Gibbon’s work described as the “long shadow of a short, fat man” darkening our understanding of the Roman world. It is not the fall of Rome that is dark, but Gibbon himself!
The American Heritage Dictionary defines decadence as: “A process, condition, or period of deterioration or decline, as in morals or art.” The fall of the Roman Empire involved an across-the-board decline. This included, as in our own time, a decline in population. Sizeable military defeats shrugged off by the Roman Republic were crippling to the Roman Empire. In the centuries between the battles of Cannae and Hadrianopolis there occurred a loss of vitality. Sophisticated manufactures in the west Roman world largely disappeared within a period of three lifetimes. Literacy, comfort and trade also collapsed. This was the greatest economic downturn in the history of mankind. According to the historian and archaeologist Bryan Ward-Perkins, “In the post-Roman west, almost all this material sophistication [created by the Roman civilization] disappeared. Specialized production … became rare, unless for luxury goods; and the impressive range and quantity of high-quality goods, which had characterized the Roman period, vanished, or, at the very least, were drastically reduced.”
Civilization doesn’t always move in an upward direction. Decline and fall is more than possible; such has actually happened. Over the last five hundred years we have come to think of civilization as barreling forward, plowing the ground for further progress. Nothing can stop the machine-like advance, the steady rate of accumulation. Today we take civilization’s continuance for granted. In this regard, the history of Rome is an irksome reminder.
But we’re smarter than the Romans, right?
The Roman economy began to move downhill around the fourth century. There was widespread enervation, a loss of intellectual acuity within the elite. Effeminacy had taken hold at a time when warfare was hand-to-hand. Incredible as it seems, the Roman Empire became vulnerable to a relatively small number of barbarian tribesmen. After penetrating the empire’s frontier, these tribesmen found easy pickings within a defenseless interior. When the legions were lost or decoyed, entire regional economies were plundered and ruined. In the fifth century, when the western half of the Roman Empire was invaded by barbarians, the city of Rome lost three quarters of its population. That is to say, Rome lost 600,000 out of 800,000 inhabitants. Such was the magnitude of the massive de-urbanization that occurred.
What led to Rome’s weakening? In describing the city of Rome in the middle of the fourth century, Ammianus Marcellinus wrote of the vanity and materialism of his contemporaries. Rome became great through virtue, he argued, and virtue had given way to vice. Decades before the barbarians broke into the empire, causing the economy to unravel, the Romans were focused on entertainment and self-gratification. “In this state of things,” wrote Marcellinus, “the few houses which once had the reputation of being centers of serious culture are now given over to the trivial pursuits of passive idleness…. Men put themselves to school to the singer instead of the philosopher, to the theatrical producer rather than the teacher of oratory. The libraries are like tombs, permanently shut; men manufacture water-organs and lutes the size of carriages and flutes and heavy properties for theatrical performances.”
To borrow a phrase from Neil Postman, the Romans were “entertaining themselves to death.” A great and prosperous civilization was about to disappear. Who aside from Marcellinus was worried about it? From every indication, the good citizen, the concerned citizen, was increasingly isolated and irrelevant. The Roman Empire lost the ability, the willpower and the inner toughness to confront the shabby little barbarian tribes that collapsed its delicate economic mechanism. According to Ward-Perkins, “The dismembering of the Roman state, and the ending of centuries of security, were the crucial factors in destroying the sophisticated economy of ancient times….”
You do not need atomic bombs to depopulate cities or empires. A foreign enemy, admitted inside an empire, can disrupt trade and stop the flow of revenue. Legions cannot be paid, cities cannot be sustained, civilized life disappears. The resulting economic downturn lasted for centuries. According to Ward-Perkins, “The economic change that I have outlined was an extraordinary one. What we observe at the end of the Roman world is not a ‘recession’ or – to use a term that has already been suggested – an ‘abatement,’ with an essentially similar economy continuing to work at a reduced pace. Instead what we see is a remarkable qualitative change, with the disappearance of entire industries and commercial networks.”
Civilization is fragile. Trade can be interrupted and peaceful industry can be knocked out of operation. It doesn’t take as much interference as you think. In his book, The Fall of Rome and the End of Civilization, Ward-Perkins describes the fragility of sophisticated economies: “to understand the full and unexpected scale of the decline – turning sophisticated regions into underdeveloped backwaters – we need to appreciate that economic sophistication has a negative side. If the ancient economy had consisted of a series of simple and essentially autonomous local units, with little specialization of labor within them and very little exchange between them, then parts of it would certainly have survived the troubles of post-Roman times…. However, because the ancient economy was in fact a complicated and interlocked system, its very sophistication rendered it fragile and less adaptable to change.”
Our modern economy is more complicated, more interlocked, and more fragile than the economy of the Roman Empire. Specialization has made our society wealthy. If the latter-day barbarians can accomplish what the Goths and Vandals accomplished in the fifth century, the descent into darkness could be rapid and last many centuries. “Comparison with the contemporary western world is obvious and important,” noted Ward-Perkins. “We would be quite incapable of meeting our needs locally, even in an emergency. The ancient world had not come as far down the road of specialization and helplessness as we have….” J.R. Nyquist Copyright 2008.
Two Letters Re: Comparing the Big Three Battle Rifle Chamberings in the United States
Jim,
[Regarding the tangent on pistol ammo that got started with the battle rifle cartridge discussion,].I just thought I’d point out for your readers that while it is indeed important to select a common caliber (for rifle or handgun) and one that fits your role/terrain/group, if weaponry isn’t your forte, don’t get paralyzed with “I have to pick the best caliber or I’m unprepared.” I know people who “think it to death” and never purchase anything because that “perfect” caliber isn’t in stock or they can’t make up their mind. Remember that it’s the user that makes the difference. You can be far more effective with a .22LR you’re trained and practiced with it than some couch commando who owns the ‘baddest’ assault/battle rifle but has not trained at all. One of the advertisers here, Front Sight, has a saying, “Any gun will do, if you will do!” That is very true!
And just because I can’t resist the allure of the caliber debate that’s going on, please note that while I acknowledge there are differences between calibers (both among handguns and rifles) in terms of effectiveness, velocities, penetration, and such… just maybe there is a reason that the 9mm Luger versus 45 ACP debate has lasted nearly a century! Could it be that there is no clear winner? From Corbon’s web site (a manufacturer with the tightest quality controls out there):
9mm Parabellum (Luger) +P, 115 grain, 1,350fps = 466 ft/lbs of energy
45 ACP +P, 230 grain, 950fps = 461 ft/lbs of energy
Both are +P, both are common grain weights for defensive loads and they are made by the same manufacturer. From that perspective the 9mm is slightly more powerful than the 45 ACP! I only say this to show that pure statistical numbers don’t matter as much as some of us (me included at times) would like to think. Shot placement and mindset win fights, not online statistics. Train until you can’t get it wrong! – PPPP
Mr. Rawles,
I am confused as to why there is an argument over relative energy at 50 yards. Having taught hundreds of courses and thousands of people how to shoot a pistol, at this point in my life I can say that unless you run across a very competent person – far better than the average police officer or weekend warrior – they are going to be lucky to hit a target at half that range.
Let me give you an example. The local PD where I am a reserve has their annual shooting qualification course set up so that the vast majority of shots are under seven yards. The longest shot is at 15 yards.
Each year I see officer after officer miss the man sized target, three shots out of three, at the 15 yard line. Only a few officers who also are on SWAT and some of us middle aged reserve guys actually hit at 15 yards.
So the argument over energy at 50 yards is absolutely a non-starter in my book unless and until we are talking about sub-machineguns which most of us don’t own. And then the energy figures would be for 10 inch barrels and not 5 inch pistol-length barrels.
You can argue until you are blue in the face over 9mm vs. .45 ACP and neither side will give an inch. Ditto .223 vs. 7.62×39 or .308. Let’s just say that all of them have their place. Personally, I carry a 9mm on a daily basis only because its light enough to wear comfortably. When I am expecting trouble its either .40 when I am on duty or .45 when I am off duty. And a .223 or 7.62×39 in the car where I can get to it …
Overseas I carry 9 mm and 7.62×39 simply because not being associated with a U.S. military unit, it is what I can get a re-supply of in short order.
Final analysis its not the tool, it’s the person. Or, if you look at [Massad] Ayoob’s priorities, gear is at the bottom of his list. – Hugh D.