Odds ‘n Sods:

In Texas, they wouldn’t call this a “weapons cache”, rather they’d describe it as a “a good start at a gun collection”: Weapons Cache Found Near Home of Former N.J. Cop (A tip of the hat to Hawaiian K. for the link.)

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Florida Guy sent us this bit of anticipated news: Zimbabwe abandons its currency. So it seems that that via hyperinflation, Comrade Mugabe and his cronies have effectively fleeced the entire life savings of virtually everyone in that once-prosperous nation. The only value the Zimbabwean dollar now has is as a novelty item for currency collectors. (A crisp new Z$100 Trillion note might fetch a few US Dollars on eBay. But on the streets of Harare, a Z$100 Trillion bill might buy a few cigarettes.) The nation has plunged into utter hopelessness.and despair.

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In case you missed the announcement, the WRSA is offering their excellent yet inexpensive Grid-Down Medical Course again this year. Classes are scheduled in Lancaster, Pennsylvania – (February 7-8), and Peyton, Colorado (February 27-March 1)

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Camping Survival (one of our advertisers) is having a big seasonal Blowout Sale. Check out the many bargains, including one of my favorites, Dr. Bronner’s Peppermint Castile Soap!

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Just as I warned you, more hedge fund redemption suspensions: Fortress Blocks Redemptions as Shareholders Lose 96% Since IPO. (A hat tip to Scott N. for that link.) In other economic news, Bank Bailout Could Cost Up to $4 Trillion. And, naturlich, Cheryl sent us another big stack of links: Stocks Extend Slump as Investors Fear Worsening Economy — Japanese Economy Hit by the “Perfect Storm” — Honda Shuts UK Factory for Four Months — Toyota Posts First Net Loss Since 1963 — A Professional Run on Banks has Begun — Brown Warns of Void Left by Collapse of Global Financial System — Gold Rally Fills Vaults with Bullion as Bank Stimulus Increases — Some Credit Card Companies are Financially Profiling their Customers

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“I figured out when I was a little kid that it was better to be a pessimist than an optimist. You see, when you’re an optimist, the best that happens is that things go as you planned, and half the time you’re bitterly disappointed. But when you’re a pessimist, the worst that ever happens is that things to exactly the way you were prepared for them to go, and half the time you’re pleasantly surprised.” – Massad Ayoob , January 1, 2009

Note from JWR:

Because we phased out our old Earthlink e-mail address, we’ve had to update our PayPal account. Our new PayPal account address is: james@rawles.to

Please use this new PayPal address for any 10 Cent Challenge voluntary subscription payments or advertising payments. (I’ve updated the relevant links.) As I’ve mentioned before, I strongly prefer AlertPay or GearPay because they don’t share PayPal’s anti-gun political agenda.
Our AlertPay address is: rawles@usa.net
Our GearPay address is: rawles@usa.net

We are also gradually transitioning to our Tonga (.to) domain for our primary e-mail address: james@rawles.to. Please update your address books. Thanks!

The New Washington, DC Paradigm Does Not Bode Well for Economic Recovery or Gun Ownership

Wednesday’s news of passage of the “supplementary” TARP II $900 billion stimulus and bailout legislative package in the House of Representatives is noteworthy. The fact that it passed with hardly a whimper is evidence that Congress cannot be trusted to show any fiscal restraint. According to the Wall Street Journal only about 12 cents of every dollar appropriated in that legislation will go for something that can be considered a growth stimulus, yet there was no lengthy or substantive debate on the bill. The floodgates of the Treasury have been opened! The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) is now sure to further expand, to heretofore unimagined proportions. Henceforth, each time that there is a new “crisis” or “emergency”, or a “threat” to a vital industry, Uncle Sugar will dump veritable truckloads of magically-created money on the problem. What will be deemed a “vital” industry? Car makers have already been deemed vital. So why not truck and heavy equipment manufacturers? And the steel mills? And the airlines? And the aircraft makers? Ship builders? Why not yacht builders? The newspapers? (“They’re really hurting, so let’s just print more money!) Despite the fact that every Republican congressman voted against it, the bill was passed by the Democratic majority.

The passage of this bill is an ominous sign, and it is a dangerous precedent, especially when we consider the other legislation that the Obama-Reid-Pelosi cabal may have in mind. I suspect that they have plans for a panoply of socialist programs including universal (taxpayer-funded) health coverage, the so-called Fairness Doctrine, expatriation controls, enormous welfare and public works programs, and, of course new civilian disarmament (“gun control”) legislation. Perhaps our only hope on the latter is expansion of the Heller and Lopez Supreme Court precedents, in new court decisions that affirm the Second Amendment as both and individual right and a collective right, and that further constrain Federal jurisdiction on firearms manufacture and sales. In light of Heller, any law, agency directive (or “interpretation”), or executive order that infringes on the Second Amendment will quickly be stricken down. (But then there is the nagging issue of Federal court packing by the BHO administration. This is possible, depending on how many SCOTUS justices retire in the next four to eight years.)

Getting back to the economic morass, the key point again is that the floodgates have been opened. There is now no limit to the MOAB. Rather than allow the natural market cycle to work malinvestment out of the economy, the Federal government and the Federal Reserve banking cartel will do their best to reliquify and and re-inflate the Big Bubble. What will come of this is anyone’s guess, since this is truly Terra Incognita. A liquidity crisis this enormous is without precedent. Will the deflationary spiral be unstoppable? Will mass inflation emerge? Stay tuned. But don’t look to me for answers. I didn’t write the script. Or then again, maybe I did.

Business Week recently reported: “New Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner is exploring the creation of a government-funded ‘bad bank’ to buy up mortgage-backed securities and other troubled assets from banks in hopes of boosting their capital levels…” This is all aimed at breaking banks out of their fear of lending. Bankers are currently so petrified that the credit market has essentially dried up. Even ostensibly credit-worthy companies can’t get loans. So the MOAB expands, yet again, using taxpayer dollars to buy up the toxic debt. Talk about a losing proposition! Only a government would embark on such a venture. Of course, they’ll be doing what governments do best: spending other people’s money.

The government’s response to the credit collapse could best be described as a “horrible spasm”. (I mean that in the McNamara sense of the term.) The Feds and the Fed are flailing about, throwing money around in gargantuan quantities, hoping that something, anything works to get credit flowing and the economy jump started. They won’t dare admit that they have no idea what they are doing. Parenthetically, do you remember Jim Cramer shouting “He has no idea!”, back in August of ’07? Perhaps that public meltdown on CNBC was a foreshadowing that The Powers That Be still have no idea. Again, we’ve entered Terra Incognita. As I warned in July of ’07 and again in March of ’08, things could get very, very bad before they ge any t better.

To monitor the economic situation, I recommend watching some key figures:

The first is the US Dollar Index. (After testing the critical 72 level, the Dollar has gained strength in foreign exchange. (Not because of any inherent strength, but rather because European banking is even more badly broken than American banking, and the Euro and Pound have taken a beating)

Next is the spot price of gold. (Can you spell “suppression”?)

This Adjusted Monetary Base chart released by the St. Louis regional Federal Reserve Bank sheds further light on the “Big Picture”. (Look closely: Don’t miss the upright spike that is hidden behind the gray bar at the right end of the chart, showing the enormous growth of the monetary base in 2008.)

And lets not forget the bank reserves statistics published by the Federal Reserve.(These show a banking system that was until recently starving for reserves, but is now gorged with reserves that the bankers refuse to lend, out of fear.)

For even greater detail, see Dr. Gary North’s “Charts to Monitor” links.

In conclusion, I must repeat my long-standing advice to SurvivalBlog readers: Get prepared to ride out a lengthy economic depression with accompanying civil strife, massive economic dislocation, and the destruction of the dollar as a currency unit. Self-sufficiency, self-defense, and charity may very well be the bywords of the coming decade.

Letter Re: A Handy Book for Boys

I’ve only recently become a SurvivalBlog reader, but I thought I’d share some info about a book I’ve had sitting on my shelf for quite some time. I’d never really put any thought into its usefulness until lately.
It’s called The American Boy’s Handybook. I first caught sight of it several years ago, way back in Elementary School, when I was just a little cuss, not the full sized cuss I’ve grown up to be.
Like the title says, the book itself is geared toward the younger generation, ages 8 – 18+. But there is a wealth of information that even the oldest of us kids can make use of.
Originally published in 1890, the book is packed, cover to cover, with projects and activities that require no electricity, no high tech spare parts, and perhaps most important, no advanced tools. Nowhere, in the entire book, will you find a single request for a band saw, circular saw, arc welder, hammer drill, or power tool of any sort. I would say that 75% of all the projects inside can be built with a hand saw, hatchet, hammer, and some simple elbow grease.
All four seasons are covered, with different projects (both FUN and FUNctional) appropriate for each. Without my copy to reference (it’s currently on loan) I can’t give a complete rundown of all its contents. Some subjects include, but are far from limited to:
– Spear Fishing
– Small Boat Construction
– Dead Drop Traps
– Build a Kite from scratch
– Make and Use a Bow and Arrow
– Basic Taxidermy
From hunting and trapping, to games and toys to keep the younger members of your family occupied, this book has something for everyone. Kids too little to be out checking the snares with Mom or Dad? Why not have them put together a Shadow Puppet Show for after dinner entertaining? Fresh snow on the ground? Teach them how to build their very own Snow Fortress. Bullets in short supply? (I hope not, but you never know.) Fashion a spear thrower or bola for taking down small game. Always wanted your own fishing boat, but couldn’t justify (or afford) the expense of a special purpose boat? Build your own flat bottom watercraft.
These are just a few of the things I can remember off hand. IMHO, this is one of those books that should be on everyone’s shelf. Even if The Schumer doesn’t Hit The Fan, you can still keep the kids off the couch, learning to do for themselves, like people used to, before we all got our McLobotomies.
Thanks for All You Do, – C.M., Maine

Two Letters Re: More Predictions for 2009, by Roger Wiegand

Good Morning, Jim!
This is a response to “More Predictions for 2009”:
We can’t make other peoples’ choices for them, but we can be affected by them. We are our brothers’ keepers, but not their masters. Governments will always do what they always do. You need to be concerned with your “mini government” – your own household. Wherein the adults are the governing body and are also constituents (along with any dependents). I choose to focus on what I can control and not toil and spin about the stuff I can’t control.
My predictions for 2009?
– My wife and I will finally take an NRA rifle safety course (already in the works).
– Depending on how our marksmanship and safety progresses, we might hunt for food.
– We will evaluate how much wood we burned through winter and adjust accordingly.
– We will increase the size of our (tiny) gardens with knowledge from last year.
– We continue to diversify our income streams and savings (between the two of us we have five incomes: two main, one moderate, and two minor).
– We will reduce expense by finding cheap alternatives to everything and continuing to make our house efficient.
– We will unashamedly get all we can for free. Fruit from public land, materials from Craig’s List, wood from a friend, etc.
– We review home security, vehicle capability, bug-out-bag readiness, and take budget-appropriate actions
– We will finally repay the rest of college loan debt and live truly debt free!! (remember: a mortgage is an investment in equity)

Our mindset is that being “in the world but not of the world” makes a lot of sense for every aspect of our personal existence, not just religious influence. While there are a lot of frightening and depressing aspects to be aware of, we will not be frightened or depressed by our awareness of them. I wrote not to criticize Mr. Wiegand’s excellent analysis, but to simply reinforce focus on what we can do because of these signs.
– Carl H.

 

Jim,

I must say that Wiegand is another huckster that has had his hat handed to him over the last two years: the S&P has done better than his portfolio. He is another guy that can’t make money in good times or bad. If you followed this guy’s advice, your account would be friggin’ destroyed.

Here are the four theses of Jimmy Rodgers, Peter Schiff, Wiegand, and all the other hyperinflation guys:

1.) US Equity Markets Will Crash.
2.) US Dollar Will Go to Near Zero (Hyperinflation).
3.) Decoupling (The rest of the world would be immune to a US slowdown.
4.) Buy foreign equities and commodities and hold them with no exit strategy.

They got #1 right, but their investments related to that were a disaster– 2, 3, and 4. Big flops. Why promote people who have been wrong for 30 years?
FYI, there has never, ever been hyperinflation with deflating real estate prices. There has never, ever been hyperinflation when one’s debt is denominated in their own currency.
You may find this article about [Peter Schiff] interesting: Regards, – Jeff K.

Odds ‘n Sods:

“The Survivalist” mentioned this article: More than a million wait in icy darkness across US

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As most SurvivalBlog readers surely deduced long ago, I am an inveterate scrounger. I scan through Craig’s List with the same regularity as the Bald Eagles that cruise up and down The Unnamed River here at the Rawles Ranch do, at this time of year. So I was delighted that while doing some web wandering today, I found a link over at Keep and Bear Arms to this inspirational article: Praxis: Scavenging as a Guerrilla Art Form.

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Eric flagged this update: Peanut butter recall expanded to two years’ worth of products. Here is an FDA web page with a searchable list of hundreds of recalled peanut butter products.

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The latest huge dose of gloom-‘n-doomage from the Economatrix: Global Unemployment Nears 50 Million — OPEC Warns of More Oil Output Cuts — BP Sees Further Crash in Oil Demand — Can the Market Avoid a February Fold? — George Soros (the Billionaire) Selling Off Sterling — Europe’s Winter of Discontent — More Job Cuts (Boeing 10,000; Starbucks 6,700, etc.) — Billions More Needed for Bank Rescues — Millionaires Crisis Plan: Return to Bartering — IMF: British Slump will be Worst in Developed World — Sony’s Quarterly Net Profit Tumbled 95% — Record Number in US Getting Jobless Benefits — Despair Spreads Amid Mounting Job Losses — Florida Beans and Corn Destroyed, Potatoes Delayed (Expect higher prices)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“One aspect of the red state versus blue state dynamic of the country which is often overlooked, is that while the Blue States have come out on top politically, the red states are much more self-sufficient in resources and infrastructure. In a time of crisis this underlying dynamic would become painfully obvious, as overpopulated and undersupplied states in the North and Midwest began demanding resources from politically disenfranchised states in the South and West where most of the agricultural and energy resources are located. When the force of the federal government is turned to massive redistribution of wealth and resources, those who are on the losing end of that redistribution are going to be very disgruntled. When a central government which you feel does not represent you comes to take the food from the mouths of your children and give it to someone else, suddenly concepts like secession and civil war seem more appealing than they might under ideal conditions.” – Dave Nalle

Letter Re: Mini-14s as Battle Rifles?

Hello,
Is a Ruger [Mini-14 .223] Ranch Rifle a good low cost battle rifle choice? Apparently they are not for anything past “medium range”. (Honestly I don’t know what that means.) Although the new Mini-14s [with] 580[-prefix] serial numbers are supposedly more accurate at longer ranges than previous Ranch Rifles. I am interested in going to an Appleseed event sometime later this year and was wondering if this might work for their program. Also if it is a good gun I was going to go ahead and buy the 20 round factory Ruger magazines. Thanks, – Clint C.

JWR Replies: In my opinion, even the latest production variants of the Ruger Mini-14 Ranch Rifle are a marginal compromise choice for a .223 battle rifle. But they might be a good choice for folks in California, where many other semi-auto rifles are already banned by state law. But be advised that they won’t be exempt from the proposed Federal ban. (Yes, “Ruger Mini-14” is on the updated ban list. They made it under the radar back in 1994, but they won’t in 2009.)

The drawbacks to Mini-14 Ranch Rifles that I can see are:

1.) The fragile flip-up rear sights on the earlier-production guns. Buy a couple of spares, even if you plan to use the provided scope rings.

2.) Their expensive magazines. (Buy only original Ruger-made 20 or 30 round magazines, and get at least eight of them. (The after-market magazines are most often junk that often do not feed properly.) AR-15s are inherently more accurate than Mini-14s, but they do require more frequent cleaning. It is noteworthy that magazines for AR-15s cost less than half as much as original Mini-14 magazines.

3.) They lack a flash-hider. But this can of course be quickly remedied with an aftermarket flash hider (such as those made by Choate), most of which do not require gunsmithing.

4.) Their marginal accuracy, compared to ARs. From what I’ve heard, with the possible exception of the new 580-series (et sequitur), Mini-14s shoot groups that average nearly twice as large as an AR with the same barrel length. This is a function of the barrel-to-stock contact at the lug at the front of the handguard. (Design demerits to the late Bill Ruger!) Yes, they can be tinkered with, but why pour money into a rifle to make it shoot straight, when you can get the same accuracy “right out of the box” with an AR?

5.) They lack the ubiquity of the AR-15 series. This has implications to everything from availability of magazines, to spare parts, to accessories (you can get anything imaginable for an AR), and to even training. Anyone that is prior US military service from around 1966 onward will likely already know how to handle, shoot, zero, and field strip an AR, because they are mechanically almost identical to M16s and M4s. In contrast, Mini-14 mechanical training is something that is well-known by former prison guards, more than anyone else.

So, all in all, I’d opt for an AR-15 clone or M4gery rather than a Mini-14. The AR’s accuracy, profusion of available spare parts, and readily-available magazines gives them the edge.

But again, for someone living in one of the gun-deprived states, a Mini-14 might make sense. The other notable exception is in tropical climates, where if you buy the all-stainless steel composite-stock Mini-14 variants, they’ll have better long-term resistance to corrosion than ARs.

As preciously discussed in SurvivalBlog, the next step up from an AR or AK would be an HK91 clone, such as those made by PTR91 Inc. (Formerly JLD), and up until some recent legal trouble, by Vector Arms. The 7.62mm NATO cartridge is far more capable than 5.56mm NATO, especially beyond 250 yards. The magazines for HKs are also dirt cheap. (As little as $5 each for German surplus G3 alloy magazines. That might make a big difference in the near future, since another 11+ round magazine production ban looks very likely.) I’d recommend buying an HK91 clone if you can afford it–that is if you can even find one, is today’s frantic market.

Letter Re: Handy Uses for Thermite

James:
I followed a link from your site and ended up at the DBC Pyrotechnics site, looking at a lot of 10 Thermite “all weather fire starters”.

It seems like a very handy tool to have – cold weather fire starters like that. I wonder if any other readers of your novel might find them useful. A lot of 100 of those might be just a very useful thing to add into someone’s retreat supplies.

Now if I can just find a place that offers pre-mixed bulk thermite, I might build some nice #2 can-size thermite devices, in case I ever have a need to do some “off grid welding”, or whatever. A smaller [one quart] can [at the bottom of] a larger can filled with sand (along the sides) tends to direct more of the molten metal down through the bottom. Just the thing if you need to put a nice, fairly round hole through some steel plate for a special construction project. – Bob B.


JWR Replies: I describe how to “mix your own” thermite as well as how to make thermite igniters in my novel “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”. Thermite itself is quite easy to make, with black iron oxide and aluminum powder. But the igniters are a bit harder to improvise. So it might be easiest just to buy the small readily-available DBC Pyrotechnics fire starters with integral igniters, and use them to start larger containers of home-made thermite powder for those big cutting and welding projects.

Three Letters Re: The Gray Man in the Coming Storm

Jim:

On Tuesday Jan. 27th, SurvivalBlog readers found 12 [follow-up] letters concerning the recent “Gray Man” letter. I believe the writer’s of the majority of those letters need to go back and re-read the original Gray Man post. That post included several suggestions for “surviving” within an area of control of a repressive government. They included putting pro-government bumper stickers on your car, checking out pro-government library books, accepting with a smile the government ID chip, gladly taking and using a government credit card and thanking the government for doing a good job. These are not “Gray Man hide in plain sight” activities. These are all actions that actively support the government. These are all activities that say to your neighbors that you support the government and that you think it’s actions are proper. Whatever your secretly held thoughts might be, your actions are what your children and friends will see and it may add to their own doubts about their yearnings for freedom.

Please consider, if you choose not to openly fight repression, at least choose to not support it. You don’t need to quickly line up to get a chip or credit card. Don’t get it until you feel you have no other choice in order to survive. You don’t need to put a government bumper sticker on your car. If you are afraid to proclaim what you really believe, say nothing at all. Don’t give support to your secretly held enemy. Simply ignore them in every way possible. At the least, by complying as slowly as possible, you will slow the government machine down.

Several of the 12 letters spoke about spies of WWII and how they engaged in activities to gain favor with the enemy, in order to gather information for the Resistance. One letter spoke about a soldier alone behind enemy lines, who did as much as he could to avoid detection and detention, in order to return to his own lines. These are not examples of so called “Gray men”. They were soldiers doing an assigned job in order to defeat the enemy. The villagers who secretly fed the partisans during the War in Europe were not Gray Men displaying happy faces. They were patriots supporting the war behind the front lines. Any of them that were caught were summarily executed. The so called “Gray Man” of the original post would do nothing to cause his arrest or worse.

It is said that during the American War for Independence, about a third of the population of the colonies put their lives, their families, and treasure at risk to gain Freedom. A third were blackguards who supported the king, and a third just stayed home and hoped somebody else would do the right thing. I would hope that in the coming days, we Americans can do at least as well as our ancestors. I pray that, at the least, there be one Patriot for every miserable “Gray Man”. – Jim in Ohio

 

Mr. Rawles:
This “Gray Man” mini-controversy has prompted me to weigh in on the matter. I am mildly surprised at the strong reactions to it, although I suppose I shouldn’t be. To be frank, this is precisely the survival mindset as taught in military SERE schools. The younger, and more passionate among us are mildly amusing in their rants against it. I suppose they need to really scrub down your mission statement, as it were, before spouting off about such things. Is your goal the survival of your family, other retreat members, and yourself, or, are you out to fight against the outlaw gangs, UN troops, T-1,000 [Terminator]s, etc.

Yes we would love to do both, but obviously(?) depending on what happens, you may have to choose one or the other. In many scenarios, it may be necessary to hunker down and just survive the initial chain of events before even considering venturing out to right wrongs and slay evil-doers. So in theory, the Gray Man concept may be necessary to live to fight another day.

Would I submit to the indignities described or defiantly say hell no and go down in a blaze of glory? The timing of your defiance would certainly seem to be critical. If you waited too late and found yourself in a corner and had to submit to it, hopefully you would be able to escape at some point and head for the hills. If you saw it coming in time enough to escape and join with other like-minded individuals, then you may be in a position to resist.

There are so many variables here, to sit and argue over such things is pointless. You may be on reconnaissance from your retreat and get policed up in a sweep and in end up in a camp. You may have to become the Gray Man to facilitate your escape.

The world is not so black and white. In unconventional warfare, being the Gray Man aptly describes many skill sets necessary to fight a stronger opponent. You only need look at recent history to understand how this works. You can get on-line and frontal assault the machine gun nest, or you can wait till they are marching back to camp and ambush them.

Seems kinda obvious to me, but it’s gonna take more then pure hearts, raw courage, and hard work to defeat your enemies. It may also take swallowing your pride, being beaten and humiliated, and biding your time for when you strike back. If you are captured and maintain this overtly defiant attitude, likely as not you will be shot outright, and do no one any good.

So I think each man needs to do some soul-searching here. Are you really doing what’s best to accomplish your goals, or is this your pride, or ego talking? Semper Fi, – Diz

 

Dear Jim,
After following the “Gray Man” debate, I have to say that I agree that the; “They can kill me, but I’ll die a free man.” position sounds great, but is a prime example of testosterone toxicity. However, that still leaves the issue of capitulation vs. effective resistance. The problem being that no one to date has presented any compelling suggestions as to how an effective resistance can be mounted. Anyone who tries to start is with the idea of becoming a rallying point, winds up cheered, jailed and forgotten; anyone who has a the right strategy seems to be silent. My problem is that we all know and understand the problem; there is no real need to keep chewing on it.

E-mail, Forums, Blogs, Broadsheets, Shortwave radio shows; [is just] talk, talk, talk. The Tyrants are perfectly content to let us rant, and rave, and even spout the truth about how they are enslaving us all. Just so long as we comply with each and every edict, and with each one, we are lead inexorably, to accept ever heavier chains.

What we need is some ideas on effective resistance; solutions to the problems of creeping enslavement? Please don’t tell me, or anyone that “dying a free man” is useless, unless you can tell me also what else I might do, besides surrender.

Who then will provide us with solutions? Who can answer the question: How do you effectively resist the Tyrants without going to prison, or getting killed? Political action is a waste of time, “We the People” are ignored. I admit that I am not smart enough to know the answer. Where is our V, our Danneskjöld? Without such a leader, or without such ideas, I see only the ability to throw more bodies in front of the Juggernaut, until it is starved for a lack of slaves, and victims.

So my question is not; “Who is John Galt?, but rather ” John Galt; Where are you?”

Happy Trails – Fanderal

Odds ‘n Sods:

Thanks to Laura H. for this link: California prepares to stop paying bills: Come Feb. 1, tax refunds, welfare checks replaced with IOUs

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From The Appenzell Daily Bell: U.S. ratchets up pressure on UBS. Banking privacy may indeed be another casualty of the global economic crisis.

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Bill N. suggested a short article on using the shotgun for defense.

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More economic news, starting with this from Scott N.: Thousands stuck in property funds as Standard halts exits. (Does this sound familiar? As I’ve been warning people for two years, hedge fund and insurance redemption suspensions will become increasingly commonplace as the credit market and overall economy continue to deteriorate. Matt L. found this: English Town Establishes New Currency. Luddite Jean in England sent this: Taxes to soar by £20 BILLION per year as IMF warns Britain faces deeper recession than any other country: And from Cheryl (aka The Economatrix): Fed to Leave Interest Rate Near Zero for Some Time — Postmaster General: Mail Delivery Days May Have to Be Cut — US Houses Spiraling Down and Down — Warning Over Collapse of Capital Flows — Millions of Chinese Set to Lose Jobs — Senator Warns White House Will “Create Crisis” and “Panic” to Push Stimulus Bill — Hedging Your Investment Portfolio by Buying Firearms — Bankers’ Fear of Unemployment — Bad News for Food Eaters (The Mogambo Guru) — Everybody’s Business: Deep in Debt and Now Deep in Worry

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Craig W. recommended this “Gray Man” Urban Camouflage Gun Bag. (OBTW, I’ve also seen guitar cases and golf bags used to the same effect.)

Notes from JWR:

The current high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is at $1,160. This auction is for a large mixed lot, which includes::

1.) A “be ready to barter” box of 36 full-capacity gun magazines, from my personal collection in JASBORR. This box includes: 12 – Used original Bundeswehr contract HK91 (G3) steel 20 round magazines, 6 – Used original Austrian FN-FAL steel 20 round magazines, with cartridge counter holes, 10 – Used AR-15/M16 USGI (all Colt made!) alloy 20 round magazines, 6 – Excellent condition original Glock Model 19 9mm 15 round pistol magazines (early type, with “U” notch), and 2 – New and very scarce original FN (Belgian-made) US M1/M2 Carbine blued steel 30 round magazines (marked “AYP”) . All of these magazines are of pre-1994 manufacture (and hence legal to possess in New York.) These magazines have a combined value of approximately $710, in today’s market. Note: If you live in a state where full capacity magazines are banned, then you must choose to: refrain from bidding, or designate a recipient in an unrestricted state, or re-donate the magazines for a subsequent auction.

2. ) A brand new-in-box Hot Jaw Bag Sealer and a box of 10 Mylar bags . (Every retreat group should have one these, since they are a tremendous labor saver!) This is a $200 retail value, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

3.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

4.) A NukAlert compact radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value). 

5.) A gift certificate for $100 worth of books, courtesy of Back 40 Books.

6.) A case of 12 cans of recent production nitrogen-packed storage granola (mixed varieties) This is a $96 retail value, courtesy of CampingSurvival.com.

Thus, this auction has a combined value in excess of $1,565.

This auction ends on February 15th. Please e-mail us your bid. Your bid will be for the entire mixed lot.

—

Today we present a guest editorial from Roger Wiegand. He is the Editor and Publisher of Trader Tracks Newsletter. Roger is co-editor of WeBeatTheStreet.com and he writes a weekly column, “Rog’s Corner,” For J Taylor’s Gold and Technology Stocks Newsletter. He has had an interest in precious metals and futures since the commodity rallies of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Roger is a voracious reader, reviewing several domestic and foreign newspapers and wire services daily for economic, political, and monetary news. His commentary is frequently featured at KITCO.com.

More Predictions for 2009, by Roger Wiegand

Our new president was inaugurated and we wish him well for the sake of our nation and others throughout the world. We do not want to be cynical but must be realistic. We think this year will be the worst one of this longer recession-depression cycle and our new leader, we suspect is going to take a merciless pounding from a heap of troubles domestically first and foreign later.

Thankfully, the spending of TARP #2 and whatever billions-trillions are added for emphasis, should give us the Obama Market Bounce lasting perhaps 90 days or so. While this economics plan has no chance in our view, the herd psychology of markets should give us a nice relief rally almost across the board. The dollar is flat to down on the intermediate cycle and bonds are the same. We forecast the balance of our favorites to rally along with shares in both the mainstream and precious metals.

However, with spring flowers in April we are expecting a quintuple smash of:

Wave one of commercial real estate foreclosures and loan failures. Some of the biggest of the big buildings will be foreclosed and those planned but not built will never see daylight. Meanwhile, vacancies skyrocket while budgets are busted with dropping rents. One analyst estimated the New York City Financial district buildings will see 66% occupancies with break even budgets being much higher. You will see some major shopping malls shut down.
The second wave of residential foreclosures and loan failures arrives dragging down all real estate values both commercial and residential. They will sink like a rock in over-built states and within those regions previously hit the worst. This is related to the next mortgage failure cycle. Some of those formerly upscale, McMansion subdivisions will turn into ghost towns.
Wave one of auto loan failures containing billions in bank, credit union and auto finance company loans will smash credit markets. The reaction will be stunning and probably stop most vehicle lending temporarily for weeks paralyzing automakers and those lenders still doing car and truck loans.
Wave one of several future waves of credit card failures estimated at $40 billion by bank credit analysts will be an April smash. Normally card failures are in the 1-2% range annually. This larger event opens doors for a historic new number of non-payers and delinquents. This cycle is mostly job loss related but most of it is due to overspending by cardholders.
Wave one of the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) will hit markets like a Tsunami. These failures will be so overpowering, those in charge will be stunned and flabbergasted by the numbers. The figures are so large we cannot even imagine the amounts. One analyst said it was estimated between $500 and $750 Trillion dollars! There is no margin or deposit money on these trades.

Most See A Crisis Of Liquidity. We See A Crisis Of Insolvency.
Here is the difference: For those in a crisis of liquidity they have a temporary shortage of liquid cash but do have a positive balance sheet with a viable longer term business plan. Insolvency is something entirely different. Those personally or corporately insolvent have both a shortage of cash but worst of all do not have a reasonable and viable plan to grow themselves out of trouble. No matter how many billions are tossed to those insolvents, they will crash anyway while taking billions in TARP and replacement cash down the tubes with them.

An excellent example is the American auto industry. Even with enough cash to get by for say three years, the overwhelming debts and their whacko budgets eliminate any hope of recovery. The automakers are insolvent. When compared with their European and Asian competition, the Big Three continue to operate on the old paradigm with overly generous benefits, wages and perks. Further, the work ethic in America is not the same as with most other auto manufacturers.

There are exceptions of course but the money deck is stacked against the Big Three even having any chance. In addition to out of kilter budgets, the Big Three has an extremely heavy load of legacy costs related to retirees. The Asian companies do not have this burden for the most part. The Big Three are paying big bucks for many more retired workers related to pensions and health care.
A comparison might be the U.S. Social Security system. We already have too many retired folks collecting benefits compared to those working and making contributions. This relationship is going the wrong way very quickly. Real worker contributions are not keeping-up with payment demands and further, those worker contributions are deposited to the U.S. Treasury General Fund where they are open to abusive spending for other things. Those contributions should be in a segregated fund and not commingled. We suggest that when the younger workers catch on they will rebel against this idea thinking they are tired of feeding the oldsters and not keeping enough set aside for them selves.

Other Events Dragging Down World Economies
World trade is in a state of collapse as seen in tumbling Asian manufacturing and export numbers along with ships parked to the extent global docks are nearly silent. Historically when this happens, nations turn inward to save themselves. Asia will stop buying and investing in our crappy paper meaning the U.S. is no longer financed. Further, trade wars and protectionism will appear to protect internal and domestic economies. Nasty tariffs are born and international trade anger rises. Mutual cooperation so necessary to move all the global goods goes very bad.

Unemployment is rising swiftly throughout the world. In the U.S. we see 500,000 jobs per month going down the drain. Those are the losses reported. We would strongly suggest the actual monthly loss is near 1,000,000 per month. If this is true, America will shed 12mm jobs this year as our new administration proudly announces they will create 2-4mm new ones. They will be going backwards at the rate of nearly -80%, which is astounding. Worse yet, any new ones will be make-work government jobs creating a further drain on the treasury. We see next to nothing for new private employment. Obviously with all the joblessness, bills are not paid relative to autos, housing, miscellaneous loans, education, health care, travel, taxes, entertainment, etc. Lost jobs create a cascade of failures across the entire spending-investment spectrum. Further, when fear sets in as in today’s situation, those still working stop spending. Spending losses encourage a Catch-22 and the whole cycle-episode feeds on itself in a downward spiral.

While we remain in a primary deflation mode world-wide, we think inflation followed by hyperinflation is very real and possible in later 2009. The Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury are just about at the end of their rope. They are out of rate cut running-room and those moves are mostly ineffectual now anyway. All they have left is a phony game of printing dollars and bonds while moving them around in a circle within our country. Foreign USA paper buyers take less and less at new auctions. We know they are dumping dollars and other papers assets at a furious pace paying bills and investing in honest-to-goodness hard goods with real value. Watch out for big time inflation in the second half of 2009.

As we write this on January 20th, England’s Pound Sterling is taking a historic dive as their central bank has been printing recklessly to fund illiquid-insolvent disasters. One analyst expects the Pound to fail and this monetary crisis to go into a Trustee Receivership with the IMF and Euroland authorities in charge.

We’ve been saying for months the monster U.S. bond short just ahead will be the mother of all bubbles. Others agree and we see more and more discussion relative to this topic. Timing is difficult but more than one analyst suggests using the ET’s for trading this longer term event.

One top analyst from Canada suggests this current economic cycle might resemble the 1873-1896 depression in the U.S. Maybe, but with think its more like 1929-1939 as today is 1938-1939 with stronger negatives. After 1939 only war got the global system on track again. Expect a repeat.

Remember Sir Alan delayed the 2000 event with low interest and free housing money. He has only delayed the inevitable disaster giving it a bunch more nasty power. The overshoot on the downside is already crazy and we have long, long way to go headed down to the lower than low finish line.

Towns, Cities, States And Municipalities Losing Tax Income
Pensioners are a dominant investor group in municipal bonds for retirement income. Real estate taxes are the primary driver of cash-in for these groups. With tax values sinking and taxpayers defaulting, your local township, village, county or city is not receiving enough income to pay bond interest. We think there is a distinct possibility California goes bankrupt!

We see a series of rolling defaults. Look at California. The announced they will be mailing income tax refunds late as they are broke. Further, some creditors are either getting or, about to get payments from the State of California in IOUs. This state is $40 Billion short on their budget and realistically have no way to escape. Their lender of last resort will be Uncle Sam. This means other states that behave themselves and pay their bills will have their residents tapped to cover California messes.

In Michigan, the Cities of Highland Park and Flint went broke and Lansing (our capitol) and Detroit are next. We cannot imagine what life will be like in Wayne and Oakland counties in Southeastern, Michigan when our Big Three disappear in bankruptcy. Hundreds of thousands of high pay jobs will vanish-suppliers and associated employment constitute thousands more lost forever.

It has been said that whenever a nation’s debts exceed GDP by over +6%, there is no recovery. The U.S. crossed that threshold last year and is headed for +10% on debts over GDP. There is no turning back and the recovery could be a decade or more away. We are going broke nationally for certain.

Being Poor Is A Hardship. Being Poor In The Middle Of Social Violence Is Untenable.
The U.S. has resources to provide enough food and shelter for the poor, and newly jobless with little strain. They won’t do it because the government is always a reactor not an initiator in solving problems. This means there is a social upheaval ahead worse than ten Katrina’s. The sad part is it could be avoided if the authorities would just get busy and get the aid out and delivered. They won’t because they are too stupid and disorganized. Watch the fallout from this mess!

Families, singles, children, and pensioners are going hungry for lack of adequate nourishment many times trading food money for utilities or rent; not being able to afford all necessities. Here we sit with millions of vacate homes and more coming yet we lack adequate housing for the poor.

The food banks are overrun with demands while millions of others throw food in the garbage. The food situation is one of transport and distribution rather than a lack. Governments are not even close to being prepared for the crushing demands of the cold and hungry we see in 2009-2012. Then, to make it all worse, when the US weather warms-up and gets hotter this summer, heat drives out the jobless and they go hunting on the streets. They will be on the prowl for free food, food to steal and committing crimes for other necessary goods they cannot afford.

The terrible, old Los Angeles and Detroit riots and those of other larger urban areas will re-set new records for fires, destruction and mayhem. People read of the billions stolen by crooked bankers and their sleazy associates and anger is swiftly rising. We have no idea how crazy wild this can get but in our view meeting violence with more violence is not the answer. For those with limited resources it’s simply better to just get out of the way. For those with money and an obviously good lifestyle in the city, we expect you will be a daily robbery target. Better think about it.

Back in the 1930s depression, our population simply suffered in silence. While I suppose there was some crime, it was modest compared to what we see on the 2009 horizon. In this spoiled generation of me first-you last, there will be no time for suffering in silence. When an unemployed father needs milk for crying babies, he will get a weapon and go get the milk and food.
We get second-hand reports of huge gangs in South Central L.A., and Chicago on both the north and south sides and others. California gangs are reported to outnumber the police 3 to 1 and worst of all they have automatic and heavy weapons. This is not going to be pretty.

Even in the rural parts of the country, there are steady reports of thieves stealing farm equipment, robbing houses and taking fuel. Unattended property is a target. We think living in a small quiet town with good neighbors, being nondescript and blending in will provide a better life. If you can’t move, better make provision for a spot to land if your neighborhood goes bad overnight.

Another ugly part of depression life is a clash of cultures and religions. The have-nots will turn on the haves perceiving them to be part of the reason the poor are poor. Obviously this is ridiculous but that is an easy perception to embrace. Look for new nastiness among those cultures most prone to argue and pick-on each other and targets generally having a good life style with plenty of money.

A new mindset is necessary to curtail higher, former lifestyles. I have friends who spend like they did ten years ago but do not have ten years’ ago resources. Inflation is insidious. It grinds away on your income with no raises or increases being few and far between. It grinds away with taxes, as cost increases constantly slide higher at a gradual but relentless pace. It takes away little pleasures like eating out more often or taking nice vacations. It tightens the belts of kids in high school who want more expensive stuff while school systems offer less and charge more. It bites on us with repairs and on things that break too often and cost too much. Once tiny, annual fees like a dog license or, auto registration keep going higher and higher.

If most people took a real hard look at income and spending I think they would make tighter budgets, curtail old pleasures and get rough with letting a nickel go out the door. Most keep on keeping on, doing the same old stuff relative to spending and wonder why they are broke. Americans probably have the worst savings record in the world. They always spend far beyond their means, for the most part; living from check-to-check. I see it in Michigan in upscale neighborhoods where thirty-somethings living in McMansions have a husband-wife income of $250,000-to-$300,000, being basically broke. They have multiple leased cars and trucks, a house payment that would choke a horse and plenty of extras including private clubs, special training, fancy vacations, private schools, and overdone holidays. Watch how this comes to a screeching halt!

The chickens (vultures) are coming home to roost. Bye-Bye $150,000 per year auto engineer’s salaries, and here comes rising taxes as our esteemed governor takes more and spends more even in these distressed times. She thinks your earned money is her money. She never had a real job or met a payroll in her life. Let them eat cake she says; all is well. Watch where that goes. Taxpayer revolts are born of situations like this one.

I’ve got some bad news for her. The tax income is skidding, big painful state lay-offs are just ahead and when schools begin to close, homeowners send in house keys to the bank and leave our state. There is going to be lots of jingle mail sent to the bankers this spring. Mark my words it’s going to be beyond ugly. Maybe Michigan will revert to the forest emulating Detroit where wildlife abounds and not the kind you think either.

The USA War Machine Will Shrink.
We Can’t Pay For It And Most Americans Are Tired Of Feeding Defense Companies To Manufacture Stuff That’s Blown-Up And Wrecked.
Global economic calamities redistribute national power. The survivors have independent energy sources or, they steal it from others. The Middle Eastern struggles with Israel and the Arabs will continue we think until it heaven forbid goes nuclear. NATO is going weaker in Europe as Putin closes in for the kill. South America has several newly-bent left-leaning commie countries courtesy of Hugo Chavez. His antics in his country and with neighbors, and Cuba and Mexico tell us this dude is on a rampage to spread big trouble right at the door-step of America in Mexico.

We sincerely hope our new president is a tough guy with the bad guys. They will lend no quarter and are simply lying back in the weeds to take control by force. We suggest if the truth be known, Mexico is far out on the stability ledge as we speak. Our border guards and even the U.S.’s Border States’ National Guard are no match for those criminals in Northern and Central Mexico. New reports tell us they caused more deaths in Mexico last year than were counted in Iraq. This is very serious, indeed.

New Currencies, Bretton Woods And T-Bonds
Our New York global trading and investment banks will require constant infusions of new cash to stay afloat. The TARP funding and still more to come is tossing cash into a bottomless pit. One of the world’s bigger banks is going to fail this year and it will be a disaster.

Next, one of the larger insurance companies will go bankrupt and create another shock to the core of our system and that of the world. This insurance company crash will be matched by a monster blue chip American company failing and shocking Wall Street.

The U.S. Bond bubble is the mother of all bubbles and has tragic consequences for the entire world. These markets are 70 times larger than the shares markets and form the lifeblood of capital for global finance. When this one breaks, the reverberations slam the world’s financial systems to the bone.

The old Bretton Woods system of having our USA dollar as the backbone of the world’s currency system could break down. The Asians and those in the Middle East are already forming new currency and trade platforms based upon brand new trading ideas. The U.S. Dollar is headed to .4600 on our forecasts; roughly a -50% haircut. We are all entering a brand new world. The old world is a goner and those who cannot change will wither and fail.

Get with a new program and be busy moving in the right direction. The time is now and the time is short. We think after May, 2009, several chances to implant new trades, investment ideas, personal events and other things will be too late.

Imposition of government capital controls can impede moving your business, cash, funds, and retirement in or, out of the U.S. It might be very expensive and difficult; or impossible.

Survivors and Those Who Win Buy Gold And Silver
We think the secret to getting through this is to hunker down, eliminate debts, keep a low profile, trade in gold and silver shares during this first quarter along with futures, and then adjust in April when stocks sell off. Gold topped out near $850 years ago right where our price is today. We forecast 80% of the gold upside is still ahead in these markets. Silver is behind gold for now but will catch-up. They never trade like twins most of the time. We think the worst silver could do is $50; but expect much higher prices.

We look forward with anticipation to some great fun in these markets. If you are not in a position now, hurry-up and get it done. The door is open for all the shares’ markets including our precious metals. Futures traders in gold and silver have been trading this past week in large size. It seems the new trend is established and our long awaited rallies are underway.

In Trader Tracks, we provide weekly guidance and extra e-mail alerts to report our best new trades and offer suggestions for trade management. Visit our web site at WeBeatTheStreet.com for more information on our spectacular futures and commodities trading record.

Whatever you do, make a concerted effort to stay with our trend and hang onto your core holdings of favorite shares, cash, and coins. Physical gold should never be sold or, traded but rather accumulated steadily on a monthly savings plan.

Recent news says you cannot find any [bullion] coins or small bars. We see delays and back-orders but some dealers have goods in hand right now. Go shopping. Should you have difficulty buying physical metals, we suggest placing an order and being patient. Big traders are always ready to buy the dips and normally never sell their gold and silver. You would be amazed how quickly your physical gold and silver will accumulate using this strategy.

Roger Wiegand
Editor, Trader Tracks Newsletter & The Rog Blog at WeBeatTheStreet.com