Letter Re: An Amazing Closeout Sale

Jim, Memsahib, et al:
I just finished an order into LAPoliceGear.com they’ve had this clearance sale going on for about three weeks. And I didn’t take a close look at the boots section, until today.

Some of the Bates boots (women’s) are $9.99, regular price as much as $169.99. And the sizes available tend toward those with smaller feet. They also have a closeout on 5.11 pants, if you buy this stuff new it’s $50 a pair, on sale for $17. Lensatic compasses for five bucks (non-tritium). And some other nifty stuff.

Thought you might like to pass along the link to their boot web page. A little scrolling about and you can find the other closeout items listed on the left hand side of the page. – Jim H. in Colorado

JWR Replies: Thanks for the heads-up. We just just ordered two pair of boots for The Memsahib. At just $9.99 per pair for new American-made boots, that is a Hotel Sierra deal! Who cares if they are “cosmetic rejects”. If looks could kill, there would be dead bodies littering the streets.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Thirty years on, inflation makes global comeback. I’ve said it before: In many ways, the current economy is starting to resemble the 1970s.

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From a San Diego, California newspaper: Diesel shortage hits other cities. The article mentions Americans crossing the border to buy government subsidized gas and diesel.

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Hawaiian K. notes: “Awareness seems to be bubbling up across the political spectrum. See this article [from a left-of-center web site].”

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Bill in Wyoming was the first of several readers to send us this article link: Food brawls among Wisconsin flood victims

Note from JWR:

I occasionally hear from readers that some of the links to third party web sites in my older posts no longer work. Unfortunately, we live in an era where people change URLs and e-mail addresses almost as frequently as they change their socks. If you find any broken links in any of my static pages (the pages available with the buttons at the top of the main SurvivalBlog page) or if you find any broken links in any of the daily posts that are less two weeks old, then please let me know via e-mail, and I will do my best to update them. (I greatly appreciate hearing from you!) But unfortunately, I don’t have the time to continuously update the links in the SurvivalBlog Archives.

Letter Re: Low RPM Diesel Generator Availability

Dear James –
Thanks for the great article link on “growing fuel” and thanks again for all the information at SurvivalBlog!

Low speed diesels [that were recently mentioned in the blog] such as the Lister and Listeroid clones are fantastic, but sadly that ship has sailed. The anemic dollar, high metal prices, rising shipping costs and the hassle of US Customs have pretty much halted importation. Also, word is that [the US] EPA will soon (if they haven’t already) re-block importation of these marvels because they don’t meet emissions requirements for stationary engines. As to that, Listeroids are extremely efficient so they might just meet standards – it’s more likely that the cost of certification is prohibitive.

Sadly, the annual total emissions of these stationary power plants are meaningless in the grand scheme, and that’s obviously not the real purpose of such inane regulation. Anyway, there are emissions-legal alternatives (the Yanmar, Weichai, et cetera.) but they’re more expensive and not widely distributed. Also, they’re less suited to running vegetable oil fuels and may require a bit of modification for this purpose. To make matters worse, I’m told by the folks who sold me my Listeroid that the Chinese expeller presses that press the oil from seeds have likewise soared in price and are practically impossible to come by.
Yet another indicator of how late it really is [to prepare]. Regards, – Fred H.

JWR Replies: Lister clone engines do pop up on the secondary market here in the US. Watch for them vigilantly at Craigslist.com and in newspaper and “nickel” paper classified ads. Note that not all sellers will use the correct terms Lister or Listeroid in their ad titles, so also do searches on “low RPM Diesel” or “one cylinder diesel”. OBTW, SurvivalBlog reader Glenn recommends Central Maine Diesel as a source.

Letter Re: Economic Impact of Increasing Gas Prices and Declining Real Estate Prices

Mr Rawles:
I sent you a link awhile back about the old timer from Wall Street who is still working in the industry and lived through the first Depression – he was greatly worried about what was coming. I agreed with your assessment that he was wrong about staying in stocks. My own former husband is a Wall Streeter who has moved much of his money out of the country now. He manages part of my own retirement portfolio and has been saying that what’s coming is going to be horrific to bear. His grandparents arrived in the US at the start of the Depression and proceeded to buckle down and weather it out. He agrees that we just don’t have that kind of overall wherewithal left in our collective psyche to ride this out nicely.
I work in dual careers, one for a consulting firm. My other career is as a critical care RN – I went to business school on my employer’s dime, so no loans. No debt. I know now that I can never give up nursing altogether – it will be needed in any coming disaster on a large scale.

My husband and I now faithfully read your blog and are implementing more than our standard for hurricane weather, as we still spend so much time in Florida. Being debt free is God’s blessing because it allows more to be freed up for preps and emergency spending. (We are buying from your advertisers.) As I casually send links to friends and warn them of life changing on a massive scale, there are more in agreement, even if they don’t understand the economic lies being fed into the machine. One is on the edge of liquidating solid performing accounts to buy waterfront property that is about $300,000+ than they could be comfortable in. They own almost free and clear now, near the water. I told her to stay put.

People are already flipped out about $4.00 gas and it’s hitting the lowest tier of workers – they are fast being unable to get to work to keep the jobs they do have, never mind other errands. What happens as it creeps out further – violence will erupt.

Many of the patients I see (I work two weekends a month in a major city university hospital) are at the bottom of the barrel – fewer and fewer people are coming in with full insurance – almost all have great stress as to how to pay for the care they’re receiving. All of this: food/oil prices, corn diversion for ethanol, mortgage mess by crooks, stagnant wages/layoffs, now floods in the Midwest, have combined to give us the perfect economic storm. (As an aside, watch the CNN special this weekend titled “Out Of Gas” – it’s from a few years back, but still timely. James Woolsey, former CIA director, is probably a SurvivalBlog reader: The man has had his home and life prepared for years, and is interviewed in the piece. A CIA Director thinking ahead like that says that there was something in the mix years back that portended this…)

You also had a piece from Mike Morgan up this week – part of his real estate blog. I’m from Florida, still own a home there in Sarasota that is safely rented and cared for by family. Everyone in Florida listens to Mike Morgan – he’s the “E.F. Hutton” equivalent for real estate and trend casting. Now he can legally dispense investment advice having passed his Series 65 [license]. Here are a couple excerpts from the blog this past week that show he’s not mincing words about looming human disaster ahead: – Lisa, RN

Two Letters Re: Tomorrow’s Headlines? — A Nationwide Banking Panic

Hi James,
First, thanks for sharing Mike [“Mish”} Shedlock’s recent article with the SurvivalBlog.com community. Like you, I’ve grown to trust his observations and analysis and I read his work as often as I read yours – daily.

I wanted to add a couple of comments, which will strengthen both Mish’s and your viewpoints concerning your observations on the potential for a nationwide banking panic.

First – is that [as mentioned,] the FDIC is preparing for this crisis right now, by hiring back some retirees, with specific experience in dealing with bank failures, as they are expecting a large number of banks to fail. This is, of course, very big news and we all know the obvious reasons why this announcement was so poorly lit by the mainstream shills.

Second, FDIC is no longer capable of insuring all of the coming bank failures, so it is astonishing to me that they can actually raise their limits on how much they can insure. This seems like a desperate attempt to head off a panic state. At this point in time, I see very little chance that this crisis can end without at least several major failures. Once everyone learns that FDIC cannot insure all which they claim they can, then it may be game over and a gargantuan panic far beyond anyone’s wildest expectations could, indeed, unfold.

They will reap what they sow. Regards, – HHH

Sir:
I earn my income from two primary sources, one from a “dot.mil” source and the other from a “dot.edu” source. I have made moderate progress on preps and other issues, but have one external factor that I cannot control very much, short of an unrealistic change in jobs (I will have earned my retirement in another five years, for example, from one of the jobs).

Both of my income sources require the use of [payroll] Direct Deposit. I cannot change that without changing my employer. I have some savings, cash and precious metals, but my regular income flow is purely electronic. Are there reasonable steps in that area I can take to protect myself from a banking crisis? Are there special vulnerabilities I should be aware of for this type of pay method? Thanks! – Todd in Virginia

JWR Replies: Anyone trapped in a “direct deposit only” payroll system has limited options in the event of a banking panic. If the banking panic is widespread or if there is a nationwide “bank holiday” declared, I suspect that many employers will revert to paper paychecks within a few weeks after the crisis begins.

The best thing that you can do is to have your direct deposit sent to a checking account that is in a relatively safe bank that has minimal exposure to subprime mortgage debt. For many years, I have recommended Weiss Ratings (now part of TheStreet.com) as an information source for judging the safety of banks and insurers, for my consulting clients. Marty Weiss and his staff do excellent research and, unlike Standard & Poors, they are truly independent and objective.

The only other thing that comes to mind is keeping the equivalent of three months worth of rent and important expenditures on hand in greenback cash or in very liquid assets (such as precious metals), at home, as a reserve. I realize that A.) Few readers have that sort of cash available, B.) You will be foregoing any interest income on the cash, and leaving it fully vulnerable to inflation, and C.) It will be vulnerable to theft. To minimize that latter risk, construct a Rawles “Through the Looking Glass” wall or door cache, or something similar.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Matt Bracken suggested this economic commentary with a preparedness message by James Macfarlane: The Thin Red White & Blue Line. Matt’s comment: “Make sure to read to the “What to Do” section at the end of the essay.” Macfarlane’s essay ends with this: “The wisest words I heard lately are these: In the next few years it’s not going to be about where you live, but about whom you live with. Make friends with your neighbors.”

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Krys in Idaho found this ABC News piece for us: Everything Seemingly Is Spinning out of Control. A comment from Krys: “This article shows that even the mainstream press is no longer able to deny the truth. KYPD.”

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The floods in the midwestern US still aren’t over, but their end is in sight. Forecaster: End is near to Mississippi River rise. BTW the floods will make already tight grain supplies even more scarce in the next year. I hope that SurvivalBlog readers stocked up, many months ago.

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The Memsahib notes: This morning I was looking back through my farm journals. In the Fall of 1995 we bought grass hay for $75 a ton (delivered and stacked!) We bought 50 pound sacks of cracked corn for $8. My total feed cost per ewe (excluding what that ate at pasture) was $41.12 per year. Given today’s feed costs, I think that we are going to have to raise the asking price for our lambs and kid goats next spring.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Be not deceived; God is not mocked: for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap. For he that soweth to his flesh shall of the flesh reap corruption; but he that soweth to the Spirit shall of the Spirit reap life everlasting." – Galatians 6:7-8 (KJV)

Note from JWR:

Today we present a guest article from Mike “Mish” Shedlock, a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. I highly value his investing analyses and his “big picture” view of the global economy.

Two Trillion Dollar Reduction In Credit Card Lines Coming Up, by Mish Shedlock

Credit is drying up everywhere. Banks are now concerned (finally), about rising credit card debt. They have every reason to be. The bankruptcy reform act of 2005, which encouraged such reckless lending is now blowing up in lenders’ faces.

Banks and credit card companies wrote that bill. They got everything they wanted. It goes to show you two things:

1.) Be careful of what you ask, you might get it.
2.) Greed kills.

Furthermore, I expect many of the debt slave provisions of the bill to be undone after Obama is elected. That will increase defaults. Even if an unwinding of that “reform” does not happen, the writing is on the wall for lenders for the simple reason “You cannot get blood out of a turnip”.

Regardless of what the law says, unemployed people are not going to be paying credit card bills. A second point is that someone unemployed, with no income, will meet the strict guidelines for wiping away all their debt.

I talked about this in Bankruptcy Reform Act Finally Blows Sky High.
Banks have finally beginning to get the bleak message that credit card defaults are going to soar. In response, Banks are Trimming Limits for Many on Credit Cards.

The easy money that led Americans to depend on credit cards to pay their bills is starting to dry up. After fostering the explosive growth of consumer debt in recent years, financial companies are reducing the credit limits on cards held by millions of Americans, often without warning.

Washington Mutual (WM) cut back the total credit lines available to its cardholders by nearly 10 percent in the first quarter of the year, according to an analysis of bank regulatory data. HSBC Holdings, Target (TGT) and Wells Fargo (WFC) each trimmed their credit card lines by about 3 percent.

Among those four lenders, that amounts to a reduction of about $15 billion in three months. Over all, the amount of available credit for the industry appears to be about flat, with the three biggest issuers – Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citigroup (C) – slightly increasing their overall credit lines. But even they are trying to rein in risky individual accounts.

“This downturn is the perfect storm where the consumer is getting squeezed from all levels,” said Michael Taiano, a credit card industry analyst at Sandler O’Neill. He projects that credit card loss rates for lenders, now around 5.7 percent, could go as high as 10 percent in next 18 months. That would be higher than the peak levels reached after the 2001 technology bust.

Meredith Whitney, an Oppenheimer banking analyst, said the impact of the recent regulatory proposals on lender profits could be so severe that she expected the industry to pull back $2 trillion in outstanding credit lines by 2010. That would be a 45 percent reduction in credit currently available to consumers. Risky borrowers would be squeezed the most.


Direct Bottom Line Hit
Every default is a direct hit to the bottom line. And 10% chargeoffs would not be surprising in the least.

Furthermore, a reduction in credit lines by $2 trillion is not peanuts. Credit is contracting folks. Yes, this is deflation regardless of what energy and food prices are doing.


FDIC Bank Examiner Audits
From a source I consider reliable, I received this email the other day: A good friend of mine has a friend who is a Bank Examiner(BE) for the FDIC. The BE says the message he takes into every exam is “You must raise your loan loss reserves”. This is delivered directly to the Chairman, President and CFO of every bank visit, every time. No Exceptions!

I asked for clarification and was told no exceptions, literally means no exceptions. Note that an increase in loan loss provisions means capital will need to be raised or fewer loans will be issued, or both.

Zombification of Banks Accelerates
As I said in Regional Banks Spiral Towards Zero, I suspected Bank United (BKUNA) was raising money at $1.90 because it was told to. BKUNA was down another 11.58% on Friday, to $1.68. I do not see how it can survive even if it raises the $400 million it is seeking.

Much of the credit on the books of banks is worthless. It will be written off. There is nothing inflationary about this at all. The zombification of banks that I mentioned in Night of the Living Fed is now picking up steam. Consumers are being increasingly zombified as well. – Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Tomorrow’s Headlines? — A Nationwide Banking Panic

Since September of 2007, I’ve been warning SurvivalBlog readers about the potential for bank failures and bank runs in the US, spawned by the unfolding global credit collapse. I am now raising my warning to multiple red flags. There are certainly some ominous signs. These include: New banking scrutiny–especially for investment banks. Plunging bank reserves. A few more bank failures this year than in a typical year. A record increase in “bank owned” (foreclosed) houses. New FDIC rules on assessing risks at major banks.To be ready for bank runs, the FDIC has even re-hired some former employees from its division of resolutions and receiverships.

It is noteworthy that the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will soon announce that it is raising the limit on individual depositor insurance from $100,000 to $250,000. Could it be that the FDIC executives are expecting more bank failures in the near future and they want to give everyone a warm fuzzy feeling–just to head off a potential banking panic?

A key indicator is the level of bank reserves. Many US banks are now technically insolvent. These banks are on life support, courtesy of your tax dollars. Since February of 2008, I’ve been warning you about the “Non-Borrowed Reserves” figure at the Federal Reserve web site. Bank reserves are plummeting deep into negative numbers. When you look at the US banking industry in aggregate numbers, there are effectively no genuine reserves left. If the average bank depositor was aware of this, then there would already be huge bank runs in progress. But the Generally Dumb Public (GDP), is still blissfully ignorant, and continues to be lulled into a sense of complacency by the long-standing universal depositor’s insurance backed by “the “full faith and credit” of the US government. Seeing the alarming negative numbers at the Fed’s web site puts me at a loss for words. I don’t know which metaphor to use: House of Cards? Ponzi Scheme? Collision Course? Whatever you choose to call it, be ready, folks! Again, I predict some widespread and very ugly bank failures and bank runs in the near future that will make last September’s Northern Rock Bank debacle in England seem small, by comparison. It may take six months or more all of the FDIC claims to be paid out. Since ATMs and online banking will likely be shut down and virtually all bank instruments (including debit cards) will be disallowed or at least widely distrusted you will need plenty of greenback cash on hand to see to through a banking crisis. Withdraw some cash now, while you still can.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Hawaiian K. mentioned a glow-in-the-dark paint product. This could have numerous uses at a retreat, such as painting firearms front sights. In my experience, luminescent paint is quite useful for painting light switch plate covers.

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There are now just 10 days left in BulletProofME.com’s special sale on Interceptor Body Armor and Kevlar helmets, just for SurvivalBlog readers.

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Chris Laird predicts economic and political trends by following precious metals market behavior. In Dangers – Danger period 2008 and 2009 posted at the Silver Bear Cafe. Laird writes: “…the US, the world’s biggest grain exporter, is seeing widespread damage to its grain crops. Without the US ability to continue huge grain exports into 2009, the world will face new grain export restrictions by many other grain exporters. This will lead to a real world food crisis into [20]09. There is no bigger factor that will lead to world destabilization than food shortages.” (A hat tip to Kevin A. for the link.)

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Several readers in the US wrote to mention that another bit of our privacy is at risk: Senate Housing Bill Requires eBay, Amazon, Google, and All Credit Card Companies to Report Transactions to the Government. If this bothers you, then please contact your congresscritters.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"A nation is the more prosperous today the less it has tried to put obstacles in the way of the spirit of free enterprise and private initiative. The people of the United States are more prosperous than the inhabitants of all other countries because their government embarked later than the governments in other parts of the world upon the policy of obstructing business." – Ludwig von Mises