Letter Re: The Reactive Culture, or 20 Years of Greater Depression

Dear Jim,
America, and modern industrial democracy, is a reactive culture. We wait for disaster to strike, then we talk about it, vote, and throw money at it until it goes away. That’s what we’ve been doing since the deficit spending initiated by FDR, socialist that he was. Now we’ve reached the end of deficit spending, having exported our jobs, currency, and control of our economy overseas and become a great big lazy balloon floating over the glass recycling bin at the local dump. Gasoline, food, and other essentials are in a tight 18% inflationary spiral and the public is only just now starting to complain, to shift their behaviors. Carpooling is becoming more common and accepted. Smaller cars are replacing SUVs and large pickups for solo commuting needs.

The trouble is, this is too little, too late. The disaster is already upon us. Oil prices are $140/bbl. Financial opportunists claim “oil price correction next week” then exploit the delusional optimism for profit. Gasoline is $4.50/gal, diesel $5.30/gal. Thieves (most of them methamphetamine junkies) are stealing the copper wiring running irrigation pumps, gutting houses abandoned by foreclosure (an irony if ever there was one), taking the farm diesel from unguarded tanks and equipment. Farmers are angry, but basically helpless to stop this. The Chinese pay top dollar for “salvage copper” and ship it back to mainland China to grow their own economy, meanwhile gutting US infrastructure. And its probably even worse in the Third World. Then again, lose enough infrastructure and the USA will be the Third World (again).

As a Republic, we are ill-positioned to deal with proactive efforts. There’s no percentage in the risk associated with planning out a solution you may not be in office to reap the political capital for. Instead, our representatives vote for pork that benefits their constituents and wins votes now or in the next few months. Stuff that people remember at the polling station.

Trouble is, Peak Oil isn’t going away. It’s getting worse. And solutions need to be developed 5 years ago to have any value today, to help with this situation. What can be done today is grassroots carpooling, use of mass transit (often slow, smelly, and expensive, as well as impractical), and eventually the highly unpopular but inevitable: fuel rationing. I know that’s terrible, but that’s inevitable too. If you don’t ration, you get hoarding and the US economy collapses faster. What’s worse, it’s terribly unpopular politically and no Rep who wants re-election will vote for a national fuel rationing plan. We, as citizens, are going to have to beg for fuel rationing just to make sure we get some fuel as things get more dire. Even with that, America only produces 7 million barrels per day of oil, and our demand is 21 million barrels. Libya and much of OPEC is responding to the threat to seize assets of terrorist sponsoring nations by cutting production to the world, which then pressures the world to squeeze the USA to back off. So expect trade tariffs, first as warnings, then as punitive measures. That means our inflation rate will worsen.

We’ve seen protests and riots over fuel prices in Portugal, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, and the UK over the last few weeks. This is only the beginning of troubles. As the prices rise thanks to production falling, the blame game will continue, and further irrational public behavior will worsen. The public have resolutely refused to grasp that oil is ancient energy and it will run out. Right now, our leaders here in the USA point fingers to delay tactics, like offshore drilling, domestic discoveries (which would have already been exploited if they were remotely as big or easy as these non-geologists like to claim). The oil under the ANWR? That’s 45 days of [global] oil supply. That’s it. If you saved it for US-only consumption, you can stretch it to around 6 months of oil supply. Better than nothing–only it takes five years to reach the marketplace. All those pipelines and wells and sideways drilling takes time, and by five years from now, the price of oil will be around $500/bbl. and gasoline something like $20/gal, well beyond the means of humble lower and middle class users to buy. Only the rich will be burning $500 per barrel oil.

And at some point, your fuel ration and carpool won’t get you to work, or it won’t get most of your co-workers to work so your operation/job ends. It doesn’t have to be your fault, it just happens. Some few businesses will relocate, but they may leave your area and offer you a job if you follow–if you can sell your house and convince your family to join a company town somewhere in the Midwest (assuming that’s where they go, not overseas). Rinse and repeat and the conservative estimate for job loss due to Peak Oil is around 20%. Public works programs, hiring the unemployed on contract for physical labor is very likely, a return of the WPA. Roads must be maintained. Railroads need to be rebuilt, with spurs reaching every town in the USA (and other nations would be wise to do this too). That’s a high demand for steel, so all those useless SUVs can be turned into 3 feet of heavy rail apiece. Rail is cheap transportation, very cheap with energy. Frugal. We like that.

Smarter and wealthier towns will also install streetcar railing and overhead wiring for electric operation. And then police that wiring for thieves looking to steal it or the power generated. That returns mobility to the local population so they can get to school, get to work, get from their neighborhood to the job on the other side of town instead of bicycling. But it may take 5 or 10 years before the economy can support that. It’s cheap to do it now, but nobody cares enough to make it happen while they can still afford it on Chinese-supported bonds. And that’s the real tragedy of Democracy.

None of this happens until after the disaster, after people can’t buy gasoline, after they’ve lost their jobs and the unemployment rate jumps 20% in a week. Only after disaster will things change. And when you proactively Hurry Up And Wait and Just In Time, you get slow improvements, shortages of critical infrastructure supplies so you can’t rebuild fast enough to save all those businesses. Unlike the Great Depression, your gasoline, the fuel that runs the recovery, isn’t going to cost four cents a gallon. Its going to be “out of reach”, “can’t buy it here”, and “sorry Mister, we’re out.” With no interim solution, those jobs are going away for good. And the general public is going to shift from Middle Class to Poverty with no way around it.

Both candidates for US President are funding a contest to invent a new car battery for all electric cars. Good move. Doubt we’ll see it anytime soon, as the laws of physics and chemistry are laws for a reason, but maybe we’ll get lucky. It would be nice. Even with a crash program like the Manhattan Project, you’re still looking at years before a product hits the shelf, years with a collapsed economy is decades of Greater Depression and generations of mistrust and sore memories of our suffering. You don’t recover from that easily or quickly. Children today are going to have to grow up in a time that’s worse than the Great Depression was, and it will last longer, too.

We still need to face facts that the Saudis have promised us $200 oil this year, and that’s $6.30/gal. gasoline. Think about how you’re going to operate your life on $6 gasoline. My commute is now two miles. I could walk if I had to. How many people can do this? Not many. If you own a house, or are leasing one from a bank, you probably don’t have the option to just move closer to work. If you take a job you hate or aren’t suited for to have a commute, your pay will decline and your job security too. Not a good move for most people. And businesses won’t move to keep their employees until after they stop showing up for work and they realize they have to close their doors. It only pays to be Proactive if you’re smart enough to look ahead. The fact that you’re here reading this means you’re smart enough. But are your neighbors? Your coworkers? Your boss? Your congressional representative? Probably not. And we get to live with their mistakes and ignorance as a consequence. Best, – InyoKern

Letter Re: Advice on Getting Started in Precious Metals Investing

Jim,
Your reader TheOtherRyan wrote asking about how to get started in precious metals investing, especially the challenge of purchasing only a small amount each month. First, Ryan is wise to realize that you want to buy in small amounts, and not wait until a big “buy,” which might be at an unlucky price spike. Investors call the process of buying a little each month with a disciplined approach “averaging in.” It means you’re buying more on the months when the price is low than when the price is high, lowering your average total cost. Unfortunately, it can be difficult to do this economically. Many good mail order sites have significant minimums of thousands of dollars per transaction or more. Or the shipping costs kill you for small orders. Some states actually charge sales tax as you turn paper money into “real money” (silver or gold bullion) so retail shops are out of the question. Gun show sellers may offer some, but it will be hit or miss, unless you are looking for very popular items like 1-ounce gold bullion coins.

But there are some easy solutions. One is to open an ordinary brokerage account at any service like Fidelity, and use this to buy the funds that precisely track the price of your commodity. SLV tracks silver, and GLD tracks gold, each fund actually holding the commodity. The transaction costs are low, and it allows you to put in a small amount at a time, until you have accumulated enough to make a mail-order purchase from a reputable dealer. Meanwhile, you are secure against future price increases, and are averaging out the spikes and dips. It also lets you wait until the moment you choose to “buy on the dips.” However, this is harder than it sounds, because while a dip on a chart shows up as a drop followed by a rise, all you get to see in the real world is the drop, and you don’t know whether it will drop more, or rise. (Jim, I’d advise telling people to “buy on the drops” as a more helpful guidance). Of course, your stock fund will do no good in a crisis, so you need to cash it out when you have enough to make a mail-order metal buy. Research in advance for how you will make a fast withdrawal and transfer to the bullion supplier, and don’t forget the several day waiting period for liquidating securities. This option can suffer if you monthly investment is small, because the transaction fee to buy may be a large percentage of your cost. But maybe you can deposit $50 each month, then buy SLV when you accumulate $250, then sell and buy bullion when you reach $1,000, for instance.

Another option, especially for small purchases, is to buy on eBay. If you know your prices, and watch for reliable sellers with a track record of selling the kind of product you want, you can buy right about at spot price. (Try searching 90% silver rolls – or “silver dimes” or “silver quarters”). There are lots of choices at or around $100, and the eBay market generally knows the spot price. Be careful not to bid early, because a price drop may mean you overpaid by the end of the auction. Use a “bid-bot” like BidTamer.com to place a bid at the last minute, so your bid does not encourage others to outbid you. Halves and dollars tend to price higher relative to their silver value, so look for dimes and quarters. Liberty dimes can be worn down to reduce their weight, so look at Roosevelt dimes, or at least check the photos for an idea of condition. Know the spot price, and that there is 0.715 ounce of silver per dollar of face value. There are 50 dimes in a standard roll (or 40 quarters). Don’t try to get a screaming deal, because you will always be outbid. Look at completed auctions, and know what things went for relative to spot price at the time. You should be able to buy several rolls of coins shipped for about spot price. Of course, there is a small risk of fraud, so don’t put all your eggs in one eBay transaction, and don’t bite when it’s “too good to be true,” because the savvy bidders probably see the flaw you are missing. Figure 2% lifetime loss to eBay fraud, but you are still getting a good deal.

For comparison, if you were buying $500 face value of junk silver coins ($9,000 cost today) from an established mail order house (like Tulving.com) you’d get free shipping, and be buying pre-1964 coins at $0.10 per ounce under the spot price. Auction sites like eBay can come close to that (sometimes better), so don’t sweat a few percent of the price, because that can paralyze you. Remember that buying the quantity of silver coins you need is like buying beans for your survival storage. You aren’t buying them as an investment to make money, you are buying them as a means to survive. Best Regards, – Ben L.

Two Letters Re: The Five Minute Bank Run

Dear Mr. Rawles,
Read the letter from W.D. in Texas with great interest. I have been a recent visitor to your blog and read the postings on the banking system with great interest – and shared them with immediate family. As a Florida resident, even though in the less vulnerable northeastern part of the state, it is prudent to be ready for adverse weather as the ATMs and banks could be closed in an emergency. Good luck trying to get cash at that point in time.

I strongly suspect that most people nationwide have about as much cash on hand as they do ammunition – in other words very little. A weather related or other emergency will likely catch most of the sheeple unprepared. The articles in your blog have hit home with me. I visited a branch of my local credit union and withdrew several thousand to supplement cash already on hand. I certainly didn’t get the runaround W.D. in Texas got but I did have the senior teller come out to approve the transaction and ask why I wanted so much cash. While tempted to politely reply that it was none of her business, I mentioned coming into a bit of an inheritance (truth) with plans to share (also true but not via this withdrawal).
My credit union hires local off-duty police officers for on-site security. The police officer watched me as I departed – no doubt alerted by the bank staff. Oh, I forgot to mention: I also withdrew $20 in nickels! I’m planning to do that every week or two.

My wife has been very understanding of many of my other preps as well. Thank the Lord for this wonderful woman! I am also very blessed by your advice and that of other contributors to your blog. Sincerely, – Jay in .Northeast Florida

 

Sir:
First of all, I would like to thank you Mr. Rawles for all of your hard work to keep those of us who choose not to keep our heads in the sand informed. I work for a medium sized credit union in Maryland. I know first hand what a bank run would do to our office. Our policy is to limit cash withdrawals to $3,000 per day per member. We can on occasion accommodate a member’s request for more, but most of the times we require 24-to-48 hours advance notice for any large withdrawals. Even with a $3,000 limit we could only accommodate 100-125 withdrawals of $3,000 [each] before we would be out of cash. I keep an eye on the dollar index regularly throughout the day and plan to take a long lunch once the run begins. (Since Maryland is a gun-hater state I’m not permitted to protect myself.)

If you keep most of your money in financial institutions, there is a very good possibility that you won’t be able to get it when you most need it. And even if you can there will probably be additional limits set in place. More than likely all financial institutions will be ordered to close. Please don’t be foolish enough to believe that once the banks and credit unions reopen that the nice government men will just let you waltz back in to retrieve your money.
Keep up the good work and many blessings to you and your family. Yours in Christ, – Vernon <><

Odds ‘n Sods:

Russ in Georgia sent an article link from Israel that reminds us that the threat of bulldozers should be considered when planning for defending your retreat. It doesn’t take much welding know-how for a miscreant to add a few armoring plates to a Cat. With this in mind, have you laid in a small supply of AP ammo? Let me clarify about the Federal law here in the US: There are no Federal restrictions on most “rifle” AP ammunition, but things get complicated for ammo that can also be fired through some pistols. Pre-ban manufactured AP “pistol” ammo is legal for private parties to buy, possess, and shoot (in most states), but only if it is not newly-loaded, or bought from a FFL holder. That makes the small quantities still available on the secondary (private party) market scarce and expensive.

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Ready Made Resources now stocks the Technon “Breath of Life” protective mask. I’m planning to pack a couple of these whenever I travel.

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SF in Hawaii recommended a new book from Hesperian Publishing (the publisher of the “Where There is No ..” books). It is titled: “A Community Guide to Environmental Health.”

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Cliff H. mentioned this NPR story from Beirut, Lebanon about hardening houses: Not your average home improvements

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"I have little interest in streamlining government or in making it more efficient, for I mean to reduce its size. I do not undertake to promote welfare, for I propose to extend freedom. My aim is not to pass laws, but to repeal them." – Barry Goldwater

Letter Re: Feedback on Training at Front Sight

Dear James,
Just wanted to say thank you for letting your readers know about the Front Sight Gun + Gear + Training special offer. My husband and I attended the four-day defensive handgun and the one-day CCW courses last week, and are expecting delivery of the [Springfield Armory] XD40 [pistol]s we used during the courses, in two days.

Neither of us had any real experience with guns before the course. To be honest, when I read your book and in reading your blog, I always skimmed through or skipped the “gun sections” altogether.

Well, the course was a blast (pun intended). They took us from knowing virtually nothing to being able to hit the “stopping zone” on targets that flipped around in 1.5 seconds. (Okay not every time, but enough that we impressed ourselves!) We learned how to recognize and clear malfunctions in a matter of seconds, and do emergency reloads in the middle of “gun battles.” They took us through mazes with pictures of bad guys and good guys and hostages and we had to shoot the bad guys, not shoot the good guys, and rescue the hostages. There was a night shoot, and shooting at close range and while moving. (The close range and moving were part of the CCW class.)

I can’t say enough about the caliber of instruction. We had a main instructor and two to three coaches helping 18 students at a time. Each was very patient with this newbie. I felt that when I needed it, I was able to receive one-on-one help. Most of the students were already very experienced (law enforcement, military, and gun enthusiasts), and they also felt they were making valuable progress based on their experience levels.

We are looking forward to our continuing practice and education. And since we have recently moved to “The Wild West” (very rural Mendocino County [,California]) we have a new-found sense of being able to take care of ourselves.

Thanks again, – Pat in Northern California

Ten Letters Re: Help With a Non-Preparedness Minded Spouse

JWR’s Introductory Note: The recent reply to a an e-mail from Trevor by The Memsahib inspired ten replies. Note that many of these were written by wives with non-prepper husbands! The final letter comes from a family that had their house nd barn blown away by a hurricane. Some sobering stuff.

Mr. Rawles,
You are truly blessed with your wife’s level of discernment and ability to communicate!. I would like to share our similar situation. Understand that I am an old Girl Scout whose former leaders took us camping from New Mexico to Old Mexico and from the beaches to the mountains. I am also the oldest of ten living children, so my life has been one of survival, therefore this “new” way of living is not unknown to me.

In contrast, my husband was an only child with limited Scouting experience. We joke about “the Boy Scout” way of starting a fire (liquid charcoal starter) versus “the Girl Scout” , “a la natural” way (tinder, kindling, firewood). Nevertheless, we have both read a lot and have felt the pressure of preparing for the future for a very long time. Two of three grown children are immersed in preparing with us, with the third one beginning to unobtrusively tune in to what’s going on. They are a blessing to us.

Not long ago, my husband ran into an old buddy who had other buddies moving into survival mode. We have all formed a solid group working together on common goals. However, I am the only wife who relates to this “survival” stuff. The men have been very frustrated with the situation. I have been very lonely for the female companionship. I jokingly told them we needed a “Ladies’ Auxiliary”. I tried to think of a way to do this at an introductory level that was meaningful and real and the inspiration came. Since we live near a coastal area, I proposed to the men that the ladies get together to create a plan for hurricane preparedness for their families. The men talked to their spouses, who were very receptive, as this is a threat we live with every summer. I am now putting together information for binders I will give them at our first meeting on Sunday, in hopes that this will be a jump off into deeper issues of preparedness for the unknown future.

As a former teacher, I had to find ways to personalize subject matter to reach my students. It could be exhausting, but necessary. The key was making the issues meaningful to the individuals. We still have a long way to go to be completely prepared, but hopefully this might give your male readers some ideas and encouragement. Even though the future looks scary, we live in exciting times! – Charlotte R.

Dear Editor:
I have to completely agree with Memsahib’s reply. I never looked at it from that perspective before. For my wife, she knows and understands why we need to prepare (that part has already been taken care of). She, like Trevor’s wife, does not want to hear any more about it. I, unlike Trevor, do share these opinions with a few buddies. An older buddy of mine explained it to me like this:

“Women (generally) want to know that they and the kids will be taken care of. They want to feel safe and secure and they want to know that their children will also be safe. By divulging into all of the issues you bring doubts into their minds that you will not be able to handle it.”

So basically, you are best off letting your wife know that you are preparing in case something happens in the future so that she and the kids will be safe. If she asks for an explanation then give her one, if not then leave it for the buddies. Most women, like Memsahib’s reply stated, just want to feel secure knowing that her man will take care of them.
Take care, – KJP

Jim:
I’m really glad a thread started on this issue. It is a major issue for many people!

I’ve been very happily married for 34 years, having lived through three kids, getting through and paying off medical school, many academic job changes before starting a private medical practice, and health issues of various types. My wife has supported me in every thing I’ve ever done, but when it comes to preparing, she basically says, “don’t tell me all the scary stuff, I’ve got two more kids to raise through high school and college. Just let me know what I need to do when the time comes.” Now, that’s basically okay, as she does not begrudge me the ammo, storable food, et cetera. She views it as my eccentric hobby. Fortunately, money is not a major issue at this point in our lives, so she doesn’t really pay attention to what I buy. But, friends who didn’t give up their 20s and 30s for medical school and residency have a different situation; their wives begrudge all extraneous purchases. Also, the nurses at my clinic, without exception, all, actively refuse to discuss any of the Peak Oil or “long emergency” type future scenarios that might require preparation. These are otherwise strong, intelligent, highly organized women who run my medical practice, and run it well. But when it comes to prepping for a scenario of future change (involving less availability of food, fuel shortages, and less availability of other needed things) they do no want to talk about it. When the other doctors and I are discussing prep (whether its in relation to Peak Oil, climate change, the ongoing banking crisis, the food crisis, etc) the nurses will literally leave the room. One recently told me “I can’t work and slave, if I think what you guys are talking about might happen. I want my son to go to college, and I want to have grandchildren, you guys are talking about Road Warrior again. That makes my ulcers act up.” In reality we were discussing the banking crisis and its likely effects on the US dollar and the spin off effects on oil prices and their spin offs to food availability and costs. Literally every female nurse and doctor I know has the same attitude (as is also the case with far too many male doctors and nurses, but not as many).

Recently, I was reading about the [WWII] German invasion of Poland, and the aftermath, and was surprised to learn that in the early stages, many men wanted to move away but didn’t due to their wives’ refusal to discuss the issue. Same thing happened when Castro took over Cuba, and the same with many of the Chinese who failed to relocate to Taiwan when Mao took control.

Theory: putting all notions of political correctness on hold (where they belong), women are genetically programmed to give birth and raise and nurture children and families. Their evolutionary role is to nurture, to give hope, and be positive about the future. Talking about prep requires that one face a potential future radically different from the ongoing linear progression from here to a future that is assumed to exactly like things are now. Violating the assumption that things are going to be very similar to now is apparently not fully compatible with being a mother and maintaining a positive focus. Perhaps if we start talking about helping our grandchildren survive and thrive in a very different world (think of the book “World Made By Hand“, by Howard Kunstler), then female spouses might be more receptive. My two cents worth, – DW

Dear Memsahib and Jim:
I read the posting from Trevor in regards to his wife and your response back to him. I have empathy for Trevor concerning his wife and trying to prepare. I agree with you, Memsahib, that at least his wife is willing to let Trevor spend money on preparing and that her mind frame is just let me know when it’s time to go. That being said, it is too bad that she hasn’t come to the reality “yet” that this will happen and will open up to her husband and talk about it and help him with the preparations.

It took me awhile to realize what was going on, I didn’t wake up right away. But, when I did, I was onboard. Because, even though it wasn’t a pleasant thought and yes, dreams and hopes might be lost, in order to survive what is coming you have to prepare for it.

With everything that is happening now and at the rate that it’s happening, I’m hoping that Trevor’s wife will realize, hey, things are happening, which aren’t good, and I really need to help my husband more with this.

I don’t want to categorize all women, because I know that it’s not this way, but it is hard to find where both spouses are thinking the same way and are trying to prepare for the future. I only know a couple of women, besides myself, that realize what is going on, and is 100% with their husband and preparing for what is coming and soon to be here.
I too read James’s novel [“Patriots”] and I rather enjoyed it. It’s one of the things that really helped me open my eyes. I read the first version, many years ago and then also the new version that was released fairly recently. We even bought a “six pack” and loaned them out to friends to read. It’s a very useful tool. (Thanks, Jim!)

I just wanted to add my two cents and say that hopefully Trevor’s wife’s eyes will become fully opened and she’ll realize the magnitude of what is coming at us and will talk to her husband about it and will help him prepare. Thanks, – Susan

James:
The Memsahib has spoken the truth as powerfully as the gospel itself it rings as loudly as only the truth could. Thank you from a guy who had the same problem. I’m glad to know the problem was on my side all along, which means I can fix it by keeping my mouth shut and talking doom and gloom with my father and brother who see things from the same perspective as me. What a bonehead I have been to force the issue all this time. I too have been blessed with a wife who puts up with my need to prepare and should have been happy to have that much all along. Thanks – Russ in Oklahoma

James Wesley:
Hmm. Converting the non-survivalist spouse. Difficult, but do-able.
Have you taken her backpacking? Not car-camping. Not RV-parking. Just good, old-fashioned, carry-what-you-need-to-live backpacking. Start with a day hike, then an overnighter, then longer trips. It’ll give her—and you—a chance to see what she’s made of.

Clip stories from the newspaper and off the Internet about Americans who have faced inconvenience—hurricanes, floods, snows, tornadoes, riots, earthquakes, volcanoes, cryptosporidium in the water supply . . . you get the drift. Supplement your clipping service by strewing and viewing a few carefully chosen disaster movies and novels. Remember that attitude change is a process, not an event. Create a climate for consensus.

Make sure your 72-hour preparations are in flawless order. Should you become “inconvenienced,” your preparations will cast you in the role of The Wise and Provident Hero. Explain to your wife that preparation is (a) a form of insurance, (b) one of the many ways you show her how much you love her.

I’m not sure what sorts of folks make up the “we” to whom you refer, but if your survival buddies are wild-eyed fringe-dwellers, you might have some difficulty persuading the Missus that you’re not “a bunch of nuts.” To paraphrase Forrest Gump, “Nutty is as nutty does.” Delay exposing her to the more extreme members of your group—the Conspiracy Theorist with a truckload of fertilizer and diesel fuel, the Rambo-Wannabe who bathes once a week whether he needs to or not, etc. Refrain from bringing Weapons of Mass Destruction into the house. Don’t use her nice dishtowels as [firearms] lube rags.

Is your wife an observant Christian or Jew? Perhaps you can reach her via the many Old Testament and New-Testament Biblical prophecies about the immediate future.
I speak as the sole Preparer in my household. I have earned tolerance and respect for behavior that is, quite frankly, outside the mainstream. The fact of the matter is this: Most people do not prepare, and most people are profoundly uncomfortable with the survival mindset. If you truly love your wife, you will bring her along as gently as possible, with hopes that, when your worst nightmares come true, she will regard you with loyalty, understanding and cooperation. – Mrs. Semper Paratus

Mr. Rawles,
Have your wife read any of the books on the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita (about the hospitals and lack of supplies at the Superdome), it is scary and it does happen. The plus on some of these books is that they do show some of the good that came out of the hurricanes. So the reading isn’t all bad. Plus if she’s a health food nut getting her into the herbs and all natural remedies should be easy.

The same can be said for the [recent] levee [break]s in the midwest, no insurance, no real help from our government and a lot of misinformation. Combine that with a very real lack of food and supplies for the general public and you have a recipe for disaster. In a week without supplies people were panicking, how will they be in three weeks?

In Alaska they send home a list of supplies they want you to send to school with your children, just in case they get snowed in for any length of time (even on the military base) and a list of what you should have in your car, just in case. While we were there I read a book called “Death Stalks the Land“, it is horrible in parts and it is all about bad judgment, being ill prepared and not knowing your surroundings or the dangers that are inherent.

In most places you will not have to deal with some of the problems I am talking about here. Where you live, what is the worst possible natural disaster that could happen? Here it’s easy – hurricanes and floods, we live 50 feet above sea level to well below sea level and in the Gulf [of Mexico]. If your spouse can’t see through to TEOTWAWKI then get her started on what happens now and then in your area. Maybe you don’t have to go all worst case, but tell her she needs to learn just in case you’re not right there when something happens and you want her to be able to get your family to safety or keep them safe.

Right after [Hurricane] Katrina, a 13 year old girl was raped and her mother couldn’t help her. Children died as a result of their parents not having a good plan or the wherewithal to follow through. There were regular attacks in one of the New Orleans hotels over food and supplies.

I am like-minded for my children, I want them to be like minded so they can carry on. The survival skills they learn from us make them stronger, more self-sufficient, confident and better people. The same can be said for me, the more I learn the better I feel about my abilities to handle any situation, with my husband or God forbid, without him. Most women don’t realize how empowering this knowledge is. I mean, it’s a trip knowing I have more skills than most of the men I know.

There are some things I didn’t want to learn and my husband found some ways to get me to try them. We traded off – if I wanted to go riding, we would also do something he wanted to do and he would go riding with me and I would freeze while ice fishing. Make what you want her to learn fun or interesting. Encourage her to read some of the posts on SurvivalBlog. Have the kids help get her interested. Don’t push her but don’t give up on her learning either.

Good luck and have her post on here too, Memsahib can tell you, I haven’t stopped since my husband introduced me to the SurvivalBlog site. – Mrs. TD

Dear Jim (and Trevor),
I thought for the longest time that I was in a similar situation, save for the fact that I am the woman, and my husband is the one who never wanted to help with preparedness nor seemed to want to talk about it. For me, it seemed that my preparedness ideals came from a basic nesting instinct, a need to nurture my family in an unseen future. Although, I have to admit, it was mixed with the romantic remembrance of being on my grandfather’s homestead. However, while my husband never spoke about it, I never got the feeling that he resented it, just as Memsahib had written to you that some spouses do. My husband always trusted me in what I was doing, so I never pressed him about it.

Then one day, he nearly blew my mind. He actually mentioned getting a firearm (a real one as opposed to the air rifles we currently own). Then he looked right at me and said, “for the end-of-the-world type situation.” Since that time, he is still somewhat closed mouthed on the situation. He will talk more about the latest technology (it is his field of work) or one day “striking it rich” (yes, I married a dreamer), but at the same time, there is a father inside of him with many old-fashioned ethics and ideals, and every once in a while, he will make a simple statement, such as the one I mentioned, or we might have a simple conversation about future preparedness. Last night, we had our longest conversation about future preparedness while sitting on the porch swing, enjoying the evening air. It entailed gasoline prices, global warming versus a new ice age, and a Mad Max future versus reality.

Take The Memsahib’s wise advice. Allow your beloved spouse to trust your judgment. One day, she might surprise you, too, and make an off-hand comment. The wisest teacher (we all know who He was) never pushed and pressured. He allowed others to come to him of their own free will.

As for preparedness from a female perspective, Sharon Astyk has recently finished writing a book on Peak Oil, “Depletion and Abundance: Life on the New Home Front”, [which will be] available Fall, 2008. However, her language can get a bit raunchy at times, so be cautious if you look down upon that. In case you have never heard of Mrs. Astyk, there is an excellent article written by Sharon for women at this web site. I don’t know why, but when it comes to preparedness, the Peak Oil movement tends to attract women more than the other sub-sects.

Until then, might I suggest [the novel] “The Long Winter” by Laura Ingalls Wilder. It’s a bit more subtle than you might wish, but there is the constant theme running through it of the expectation that the train will come, bringing supplies, but never does. If you have children to read aloud to, so much the better (and less suspicious). The Little House series are excellent books for children, although with sons you may wish to read, or have them read, “Farmer Boy” first. My oldest son thoroughly enjoyed it, and when I started reading the other books aloud to the younger children, he immediately recognized Mrs. Wilder’s writing style, and was happy to listen in as well. – Mama Squirrel

Mr. Rawles,
I too have had the experience of attempting to ‘bring into the fold’ an eye-rolling spouse. She read “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse”, and felt that she could not identify with a preparedness minded group on the other side of the country. We live in Florida, and have weathered four hurricanes, two going directly overhead. Even after three weeks of no power (two weeks with the first, one week with the second, one day with the third), she still resents my storage of gasoline and propane.

Until recently. I love so-called ‘apocalypse’ fiction, and a like-minded friend of mine turned me onto a series of books by Terri Blackstock, the first of which is called “Last Light“. This four book series follows a group of suburbanites after an EMP-like event cripples the country (not to spoil the story, but the event is actually global). These people were absolutely not prepared at all, and suffered quite a bit. Also, the book is considered Christian Fiction, and focuses on the Blessings of God and faith in His power and love to get the main characters through their various trials.

My wife was only three chapters in when she began to ask “what would we do about water” and “what would we do if this happened while the boys were at school?”
Thankfully, she has began to support my various efforts more (less eye-rolling) and has actually made some great suggestions that I had not thought of. We now have a G.O.O.D. plan, and have laid in more supplies.

Thanks for your SurvivalBlog site. I read it daily and spread the word. – DT in Florida

Dear Jim and Memsahib,
I must agree with you Memsahib that many people are not mentally capable of accepting that things are about to take a turn for the worst.

We live on the Gulf coast and even after living with the devastation that Hurricanes bring, it was extremely difficult when we lost our home and barn to Hurricane Ivan. We had hunkered down next door in my Uncles home to ride out the storm. We never imagined that when the storm had passed that our home would be gone. My husband, myself 7 months pregnant, our 15 year old twin boys, our 12 year old daughter walked over the hill to go home and we were all devastated. We didn’t have a home, or a barn. Our goats and horses were standing there looking at us in a daze. We were homeless. I had read about it, heard about it, and now I was about to live it. And live it we did. We survived the nightmare.

It was quite humbling to turn around and go back to Uncles and ask to stay a little while. After a week, we borrowed my uncle’s 1970 something travel trailer that slept two. A neighbor loaned us another travel trailer that slept another two . My daughter slept in the kitchen/dining area on a cot. And, being pregnant, my hormones were not real happy. Bringing another child into this world to nothing. I didn’t want to face it, but I didn’t have a choice.

Now, I am the survivalist [of the family]. I have survived the worst, and if and when I face the next hardship, you can bet your full tank of diesel that I will never ask anyone for help again, I wont have to.

I have to agree that when ones spouse isn’t able to face it, then you must prepare quietly and understand.

My husband just chuckles at me when I bring home 50 pounds of sugar when it is on sale.
Thanks to you Jim for such a wonderful site. I have learned so much. – Roxie

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader Ben M. recommended a BBC article on the international banking crisis. They talk about UBS, announcing further losses on top of their $37 Billion worth of losses that were already announced. A key quote: “We haven’t hit the bottom yet,” warned Zhang Xiuqi, from Guotai Junan Securities.

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Eric found this article: Ethanol-free gas outlets growing daily. Eric’s comment: “Having just hoisted six 5-gallon gerry cans into the e-85 vehicle I drive – as I’m rotating my storage fuel – this article is making me concerned. Guess we’ll see in the next few days.”

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From the AIDG Blog – Sam Redfield on Pico-hydro at La Florida. (A hat tip to MSJ for spotting the blog piece.)

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KAF sent this bad news for anyone that plans to park some money offshore: IRS wants millions hidden in Swiss accounts

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"There is nothing which doth more agreeably concern the Senses, than in the depth of Winter to behold the Fruits so fair, and so good, yea better, than when you first did gather them…….You will taste your fruit with infinite more gust and contentment, than in the Summer itself, when their great abundance, and variety, rather cloy you than become agreeable. For this reason therefore it is, that we essay to teach you the most expedite, and certain means how to conserve them all the WInter, even so long, as till the New shall incite you to quit the Old." – John Evelyn, The French Gardiner, London 1675

Letter Re: Advice on Communications Scanners

Dear James,
I was talking to my neighbor today and he showed me his Uniden Bear Tracker 800 scanner, a now discontinued model. That got me to thinking that I probably should get one for emergencies. But the thing is I don’t know what you should look for in a police scanner. Also I’m on a budget and I’m not willing to spend more than $100 on a scanner, but most cost quite a bit. That’s why I’m looking for a reasonably priced scanner, though I’m having problems finding one. Any recommendations or help would be gladly accepted.
Regards, – MG Mikael

Mikael:
Since you are on a budget, your best bet is to find a used scanner on eBay, hopefully for $80 to $120. (This may take a few diligent weeks of putting low bids on successive auction, to have a winning low bid.)

From the SurvivalBlog archives, here are a couple of useful references with scanner model recommendations:

General advice on communications monitoring.

and,

A “trunked traffic” capable scanner.

Letter Re: Simulation of Pandemic Influenza – Preparedness Implications

Jim,
I appreciate everything that you and your readers are doing to help change the mindset of people around the world.
I was reviewing the May/June issue of a health care trade magazine that contained a report on a simulation carried out in Philadelphia at the start of this year dealing with pandemic influenza. While much of the discussion was relevant only to health insurers, the scenario that served as the simulation is detailed below. Readers can draw their own conclusions of the type of things that they should prepare for.

The following is exerted from: Raymond, A.G. (2008). Pandemic Influenza. AHIP Coverage. 49(3), 18:

A Simulation: Twelve “All-Too-Real” Weeks of Pandemic Influenza
After years of warnings a deadly flu grips the city [Philadelphia]. As the simulation begins, 2,000 suspected cases of pandemic flu have been reported in the Greater Philadelphia area, with at least 13 deaths. State and local health officials are starting to carry out the CDC‘s recommendation to isolate and treat with antiviral medications anyone with confirmed or suspected pandemic influenza, and encourage people to reduce contacts that might spread the virus. People who are infected can be contagious for a day or more before they develop symptoms, which range from fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches, to severe respiratory diseases and other life-threatening complications.

Soon, doctors’ offices and hospitals are inundated with the sick and “worried well”. Hospitals report ER waiting times as high as 15 hours with few beds available for new admissions. Medical personnel are stretched to the limit, and some are showing signs of infection.

Businesses are experiencing high rates of absenteeism, and schools are closing. Domestic and international travel and shipments are slowed or cease entirely. Groceries and pharmacies are quickly emptied of essential supplies and restaurants and malls are empty.

The medical, economic and social consequences are devastating.

After nine weeks, the number of cases in the Philadelphia area has escalated to more than 100,000, deaths are in the thousands, and the city’s hospitals and clinics are overwhelmed as they try to provide adequate care for huge numbers of victims along with their usual patient population. Morgues, hospital mortuaries, and funeral homes are challenged in their ability to care properly for the soaring number of dead.

Public safety and sanitation are major concerns, critical medical and food supplies are running low, and much of the economy has come to a standstill because of high employee absenteeism and a lack of customers. Internet and cell phone service is disrupted as home workers create system overload, and service workers are unavailable to respond. Normal everyday activities end as people avoid shopping, dining out, and social gatherings of all kinds.

The first wave is ending; attention turns to recovery and preparation for a second.

At week 12, the number of new infections is subsiding, but a second wave of pandemic flu is spreading overseas. In the USA, an estimated 40 million people have been infected and nearly one million have died, including 25,000 in the Greater Philadelphia area.

The economy is in free fall. As consumers limited their spending, business have cut back production and laid-off workers, and small businesses are closing altogether. Antivirals and antibiotics are scarce, vaccines for the pandemic strains are still months away, and the medical system is still short on staff, beds and supplies. Fear and isolation have taken a heavy toll on the public, with increasing accounts of depression and other signs of stress. Can the city begin to recover and also prepare for a second-wave pandemic?

For now, this is only a simulation. – Dave in Alabama.

Letter Re: Ammo Types and Storage Ratios for a Precision .308 Rifle

James
I have a friend wanting my advice. He has a Glock [Model] 22 [.40 S&W] , an AR-15 [5.56mm NATO], a Ruger 10/.22 [rimfire] and a Remington 700 VTR [bolt action .308]. He has 5,000 rounds for the Glock, 10,000 rounds for the AR and 6,000 rounds for the 10/.22.
He has no .308 semi-auto rifle and [says that he has] no plans to acquire one. He wants to lay in a supply of around 2,000 rounds for the Remington 700 VTR. It shoots under 1/2 MOA with 168 grain Federal Gold Medal Match, and around 1 to 1-1/2 MOA with assorted hunting rounds we’ve tried.

I told him he should have some 168 grain Federal Gold Medal Match for precision work, some hunting ammo and some ball ammo.

In your opinion, what is a good percentage of each to have on hand? Thanks, – Craig W.

JWR Replies: For a precision rifle, I’d recommend this laying in an ammo supply at this ratio:
60% 168 grain Federal Match
20% 165 grain hunting load, such as Winchester silvertip. (Pick a brand/bullet weight with a trajectory that is close to the Federal Match, so they’ll be no need to re-zero.)
15% Ball
4% Tracer
1% AP and/or API, if you can find any. A large gun show in an unrestricted state such as Nevada or Kentucky would be your most likely source. Bring a wad of cash, since you can expect to pay $4 to $6 per round!

Note: Keep in mind that the tracer and incendiary bullets will leave a residue that is hygroscopic (and hence corrosive)–so set that ammo aside for just WTSHTF and clean your rifle thoroughlyfor three successive days after shooting any! Just like when shooting corrosively primed ammunition, a rifle’s bore and the face of the bolt are at risk of getting pitted if you don’t clean it scrupulously and repeatedly.

I recommend that you zero the rifle with the Federal match ammo, and then do bullet drop comparisons with each of the other loads. Work up a bullet drop and wind drift card for each load, all the way out to 1,200 meters. Laminate those cards to make them weather resistant, and keep them with the rifle at all times. (A stock pouch is handy for this purpose.)

Consult your state and local laws before purchasing any tracer, AP, or API ammunition.

OBTW, a good place to watch for ammo on sale is GunDeals.com.

Odds ‘n Sods:

WB in Texas mentioned a book review of the now-classic $50 and Up Underground House Book, written from the perspective of a reviewer that has actually built one of his own.

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Jack B. flagged this article from Pakistan: Oil-fired budget to skyrocket inflation. Jack’s comment: “Economic woes in Pakistan are just another red flag in the soon to be world wide crunch! Like ripples in a global pond, country after country reverberates with like stories.”

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Eric found this article from the UK: It used to be deer poaching, now rural gangs move into the oil business.

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Eric also found this article at Der Spiegel: The United States Federal Reserve Bank faces a general audit by the International Monetary Fund