Economics and Investing:

Roddy sent this from the Guatemala Times: The Great Depression Analogy

R.S. forwarded this from The Financial Times: If China loses faith the dollar will collapse

A recent column by Libertarian commentator Vin Suprynowicz: Light at the end of the tunnel: They only need another $20 trillion

DS liked this piece by Karl Denninger, over at Seeking Alpha: Independent Analyst Numbers Far Uglier than Official Stress Test Rumors. JWR’s comment If we take into account that most US residential real estate will likely fall another 30%, and most commercial property by another 50%, then the “official” stress test results will be downright laughable. All those “underlying assets” are little more than sinking sand.

Dave L.sent us this piece at Bloomberg: Bank of America, Citigroup, GMAC Need More Capital (Billions more in the MOAB!)



Odds ‘n Sods:

Rhett mentioned the AOPA “Pinch Hitter” course. (Imagine that you are the passenger in a friend’s private plane,when suddenly he suffers a massive heart attack. What will you do?)

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Some places you have to go well-armed, to share the Gospel. Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition.

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Eric sent us this: Montana sovereignty bills have national scope

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Reader Don E. spotted this: Homeland agency pulled back extremism dictionary. Why haven’t the biased authors at the DHS been fired?

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Another item for the “Home invasion robberies thwarted” file: College Student Shoots, Kills Home Invader. (A hat tip to Tamara’s View From the Porch blog for the link.)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Why should taxpayers who live in apartments, perhaps because they did not feel that they could afford to buy a house, be forced to subsidize other people who could not afford to buy a house, but who went ahead and bought one anyway?" – Thomas Sowell



Note from JWR:

Today we present a brief but very practical entry for Round 22 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The contest prizes include:

First Prize: Two transferable Front Sight  “Gray” Four Day Training Course Certificates. This is an up to $4,000 value!
Second Prize: A three day course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses.
Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing

Round 22 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Zero Your Rifle with Just Two Rounds, by Pete C.

What makes our rifles fun? Shooting them! However, we have all seen first-hand the spike in ammunition prices since the 2008 Presidential election. American’s in fear that they will soon not be able to get ammunition because a possible government bans, smart bullets schemes, etc; citizens have been stockpiling ammunition causing a stress on the market. This in turn causes shortages and prices rise.

Here I will discuss a simple and inexpensive way for you to stop wasting ammunition and money; and zero your battle rifle (or any that you might “come across” during a TEOTWAWKI situation) with only two rounds. If you have been in the military, you know that the current procedure for zeroing the M16 type of rifles wastes time and ammunition. The military will allow up to eighteen rounds of ammunition (in three round shot groups) to be fired per soldier in order to zero their weapons. This allows several variables such as breathing, trigger squeeze, stock weld, etc. to affect the zero.

Borrowing techniques from expert hunters, everyone can easily streamline their zeroing procedures and only use two rounds of ammunition to quickly zero their weapon. This method works whether zeroing iron sights or scopes, and it will work on many different kinds of rifles with reliable adjustable sights (AR-15s, AR-10s, M1As, FN/FALs, etc). The purpose of this method is only to provide the shooter with a weapon that places rounds on target. It does this while saving time and ammunition.

Required Items:

  • A safe shooting location (range) providing at least 25 meter shooting distance.
  • One solid bench rest (many ranges have these for use, or they can be purchased from many gun shops or on-line, ranging in price from $50 – $150 or more, but then it is yours.
  • Your chosen weapon (for example, an AR-15 using iron sights)
  • 25-meter zero target (for example, an E-type silhouette)
  • One extra E-type silhouette (cut out from another zero target)
  • Staple gun and tape
  • Eye and hearing protection

Zeroing Method
Place the mechanically zeroed weapon (See FM3-22.9 at the link below on mechanical zero) securely in the bench rest and use the adjustments on the rest to put the rifle sights directly over the center of a 25-meter zero target, or the desired aim point and fire one round at the target. To compensate for the weapon’s recoil, you should (if needed) again use the bench rest adjustments to move the rifle sights back over the desired point of impact. Make sure that your weapon is on safe.

Now walk downrange with the extra cut out E-type silhouette and tape it directly over the impact point of the round fired. Walk back to the weapon (still secured in the bench rest) and carefully move the sight picture directly over the taped-on target. To do this, simply raise or lower the front sight post for elevation corrections and turn the rear-sight (windage) knob either left or right to make corrections.

You should now have your sights aligned precisely over the actual point of impact on the target. If you have been careful not to make the rifle slip within the bench while making the adjustments, it should now be zeroed. To confirm the zero, simply move your sights back over the original target (using the adjustments on the bench rest) to the desired point of impact and fire a second round. If the rifle is zeroed, this round should hit the desired point of impact. Get up and move again downrange to confirm the hit. If the round is not at the desired point of impact, simply repeat the procedure from the second round’s point of impact on the zero target. This simple procedure allows you to zero a rifle quickly by moving the point of aim to the point of impact.
The use of a bench rest eliminates the need to fire three rounds of ammunition to obtain a shot group before making sight adjustments. If the first round is not true, the second (confirmation) round will alert you to this fact, and you could than repeat the process.

Yes, there are other items that you can purchase that will assist you with getting a weapon zeroed. Laser bore sights for example are great and easily obtained from gun shops or on-line sites and range in price from $40 – $150 or more. With these items, you can zero your rifle quickly without even firing a single shot saving both time and ammunition. However, if you do not have the correct caliber laser or insert sleeve to change to a different caliber; or the mini-watch batteries run dead and you have no way to replace them, the laser bore sight will do you no good. If you already have one though, don’t get rid of it. Sometimes there may be a situation in which you are in an area where discharging of a firearm to zero may not be possible.

In addition, there is a wonderful company called Shepherd Scopes that developed a patented dual reticle system that gives you a point of reference inside the scope allowing you to zero the scope/weapon with just one shot from a bench rest position. These scopes however range in cost from $700 – $800 apiece. I would rather spend funds on purchasing more ammunition, as we all know from reading SurvivalBlog.com, that ammunition could one day be more useful than silver for the purposes of barter.

In closing, zeroing your rifle makes it more effective. This expedient two-round method will give you confidence that your sights and bore are aligned even if you happen to “pick-up” or borrow a weapon from a friend; have limited time or limited ammunition. Understand that different positions, body armor, winter clothing, etc. will change your head position, but your bore and sights will be properly aligned/zeroed. Having a zeroed weapon is a fundamental you can build on. The rest is up to you. Good-luck and God Bless!

References:
Ammo Price Hike Has Many Biting the Bullet
– WorldNetDaily, There was ammo on these shelves …Nationwide shortage leaves gun owners scrambling, paying extra, Zahn, Drew, March 31, 2009.
FM 3-22.9 Rifle Marksmanship M16A1, M16A2/3, M16A4 and M4 Carbine
Shepherd Scopes



Odds ‘n Sods:

From the Dr. Housing Bubble blog: The Paradox of Spendthrifts – Government Offering 0 Percent on I Savings Bonds and Creating Incentives to Spend. Punishing the Prudent and Savers. $115 Trillion in Total U.S. Debt

It is nice to see that the spot price of silver has bounced back. I hope that you folks took advantage of the recent dip. (I did!) It may not occur until after inflation kicks in, in the aftermath of overspending on the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB), but I stand by my long term prediction of $50+ silver.

Great Recession’ Will Redefine Full Employment as Jobs Vanish (Thanks to Eric for the link.)



Odds ‘n Sods:

Eric sent this from New Scientist: Regional nuclear war could trigger mass starvation. One billion dead?

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“Word” forwarded a NRA Institute for Legislative Action bulletin link: BATFE Reform Bill Introduced in U.S. Senate. Please ask you senator to support this much-needed legislation.

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I heard that the folks at The Old Schoolhouse magazine (on homeschooling), are offering their latest issue (Spring, 2009) for free download.

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S.H. spotted this from the New York Times: Fearful Brazilians Keep Armored Car Sales Booming



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all — security, comfort, and freedom. When… …the freedom they wished for was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free." – Sir Edward Gibbon (1737-1794)



More About Depression Proof Jobs–Consider the Three Ks

In these perilous economic times, marked by increasingly frequent corporate layoffs, I’m getting a correspondingly large number of question from blog readers and consulting clients about “recession proof” jobs. I’ve already mentioned quite a few possibilities, but there is one whole category that doesn’t require much (if any) special training:

In Japan, these are called the “”Three-K” jobs: kitsui (“hard”) , kitanai (“dirty”) and kiken (“dangerous”). If you are willing to take on any of the Three K jobs, do cheerful and hard work, and have exemplary attendance, then you will likely have a job that will carry you all the way through a deep recession or even a depression. If times get truly Schumeresque and you get laid off, then please be willing to “think outside the box”, and consider taking a Three K job. Some of these are low level city and county payroll jobs. And by low level, I mean things like sanitation worker, animal control officer, sewer technician (BTW, when did that become “technical?), solid waste transfer station worker, highway maintenance worker, and so forth.

Think about it: If you get laid off and can’t find work in your chosen field after several months of searching, then you ought consider taking a cut in pay, to take a far less glamorous job. When corporate layoffs are happening recurrently, a steady job beats no job. Don’t let your family starve, or end up homeless. There is no shame in accepting good old-fashioned hard work. If you take a job that brings in only one half of your existing income, consider that you’ll actually come out ahead of any of your contemporaries that are laid off more than half of each year. Further, you will have uninterrupted benefits, such as health insurance, that they will also lack. A menial and low-paying job is better than no job.



Letter Re: Gun Show Report–A Window of Opportunity?

Jim,
On Sunday, I attended what is billed as the largest gun show in North Carolina and thought you and your readers might appreciate an update.
What I saw lead me to believe that supplies of black rifles and magazines are catching back up to demand but that ammunition and reloading components remain in short supply — especially primers.

When I attended the November show, I had to wait in line 30 minutes or so just to get in. I heard the March show had a two hour wait. Today, there was no wait at all. It was crowded inside, but not jammed like the first post-election show. Still, a healthy amount of business was being conducted, far more than two years ago when I last attended as a dealer.

My first stop was to pick up the smokeless powder that I use to load .223. It was sold out at my normal dealer. They had a big sign that said “No Primers.” I found another dealer and bought two pounds. The price was reasonable. He had only magnum pistol primers in stock. He told me the price as $48 per thousand, but he expected it to settle back down in three months. I did not see any other primers in the entire show. Several folks were selling bags of 100 pieces of brass, but no one was selling 1,000 piece bags of it or other large lots, and prices were up. So brass and primers remain in short supply. Possibly it is all going to commercial ammunition production.

I was surprised to see that there were lots of new black rifles available — more than I had expected. There were plenty of AR-15s well as AR uppers and lowers. Despite wider availability, prices remain high. The cheapest plain vanilla AR-15 that I saw was $1,080, with most guns starting at $1,200 and anything with an adjustable buttstock and rails instead of the older forearm starting at around $1,600. In fact, I would say $1,600 was the average price for a Bushmaster or a S&W M&P. Of course, there were still $3,000 guns for sale, but no one was showing much interest.

Stripped lowers from the lesser-known manufacturers were going for about $139 and full lowers with an adjustable buttstock from Rock River Arms were $359. I was looking for a spare bolt and bolt carrier, but never found one. I also saw that part kits for lowers were in short supply. So if you are planning on piecing together a gun, it might make more sense just to buy one complete. You could wait weeks for parts and possibly spend even more when all is said and done.

AK-47s were widely available, as were the Ruger Mini-14 and Mini-30. AKs were running in the $600 and up range while SKSes were closing in on $400. A CETME rifle with a Century Arms receiver that cost $300 five years ago was not going for a shockingly high $1,295. I only saw one Springfield Armory M1A. It had a stainless steel barrel and was $1,695. FALs were scarce and at least as pricey.

Based on this show, magazines seem to be back to reasonable availability. Used AR-15 magazines were $9. New .223 alloy magazines from C-Products or DPMS were starting at $15 at most sellers. MagPul polymer magazines were $25 to $29, depending on the model. They were some available, but limited quantities.

Pistol dealers were doing a very robust trade. I saw many more people buying pistols than I did long guns. There were dealers with 20 tables just lined up with Glocks, Springfield Armory pistols, SIGs, Smith and Wessons, Kahrs, Kel-Tecs and just about anything else you could see. Every pistol dealer had people sitting in chairs filing out paperwork.

Rifle ammunition was in decent supply. I saw at least three dealers that had stacks of 1,000 round cases of new, commercial .223/5.56 from Federal XM193 and/or PMC for $459 and up. Many others had Wolf, Bear or other Russian or Eastern European ammo. There were also folks selling “remanufactured” ammo — 500 in a .30 caliber ammo can for $275. Since this was the second day of the show and near the end, I was surprised at this availability — all the anecdotal evidence I had heard lead me to believe cases of .223 would be sold out. .308 ammo was harder to come by, with very little domestic production available. There was a moderate supply of Russian calibers and one guy had a pallet of 8mm [Mauser] that didn’t seem to be selling.

Pistol ammunition was much more scarce than rifle ammo, especially in common calibers. I saw only one dealer with .380 (for $35 a box) and only a few with 9mm. Dealers had signs saying “No 9mm” or “No .45 ACP.” Self defense ammo with a good hollow point, such as Gold Dot or Ranger SXT were going for $45 or $50 for a box of 50 rounds. There was more .357 and .40 [S&W] and good supplies of less common calibers like .44 Special. I only saw one dealer with bricks of 1,000 .22 LRs, but plenty were selling the small 50 or 100 round boxes.

If this one show is any example, I would say that the industry is doing a good job or meeting the increased demand for firearms, albeit at the expense of the secondary market. Demand remains high, but is down from the surge in the months immediately following the election, and supply is now catching up. The threat of additional legislation, assault weapon bans and magazine bans remains and is likely to grow rather than recede. As a result, this may be a good window of opportunity to buy a new firearm. While it is possible prices will drop if we reach an over supply situation, I personally think that is unlikely in the next two or three years unless the Republicans win an awful lot of seats in the next congressional election.

The strong sales of pistols and lack of availability in pistol caliber ammunition leads me to believe that many people are worried about rising crime and are arming themselves. This is consistent with the up tick in people taking concealed carry courses. One has to wonder if the same lines that produced pistol ammo have been converted over to rifle calibers and if we are destined to see shortages in one or the other for some time to come.

Finally, the recent sales explosion in firearms and the sudden lack of availability in the market should be a lesson to anyone sitting on the survival fence. Do not put off your preparations any longer. A sudden change can suck all the supplies out of the pipeline and result in months of backorders for long term storage food, water filters, medical supplies, etc. The just-in-time supply situation is a precarious one and any small shock can upset the balance, resulting in shortages and price increases. – Captain Dave



Bicycles in War, a Book Review by by Michael Z. Williamson

I just finished reading the book “Bicycles in War” by Martin Caidin and Jay Barbree. Caidin, of course, is a phenomenal writer, and does a great job of presenting the material. There’s not a lot of technical how to, though there are some useful pictures, and comments about how the Viet Cong, for example, reinforced their bicycles to carry up to 500 pounds of cargo while pushing them.

During WWI, entire regiments moved more quickly than marching troops, and quite a few clandestine operations in both World Wars used bicycles, including some by the British Commandos and the SS, behind enemy lines.

Summarizing from the book’s conclusion, the bicycle’s efficiency can be explained as allowing a man to move up to fours times as fast or far than
on foot
, while carrying two to four times as much gear, for less calories expended–1/5th to 1/2, depending on load. A bicycle can go most places a walking man can, and can of course readily use roads as well. – Michael Z. Williamson



Mexican Flu Update:

As the H1N1 flu spreads across the nation and around the globe, the key question seems to be: It the flu is spreading this quickly in warm weather, then what will it do next winter, when people are generally in closer proximity, indoors? The CDC has vowed to “…continue to get ready for a possible pandemic in the fall.”

Clearly, prudence dictates that we be well-prepared, so stock up!

The latest flu headlines:

Jim S. suggested a video from an academic on the implications of H1N1 hitting Phase 5.

Chan hits back at WHO critics. (Thanks to Greg C. for the link.)

At Bloomberg: Swine Flu May Merge with Other Flu Viruses, CDC Says

Linked at Drudge: Mexico to resume business, pork row erupts



Economics and Investing:

CPK mentioned a great piece over at Seeking Alpha: The Worst Case Scenario (Someone Has to Say It)

Reader Allan G. sent this: Robert Gibbs: No bailout for newspapers

Tamara, over at the excellent View From the Porch blog, mentioned an article that might be of interest to anyone who is considering setting up an offshore retreat:: Obama to introduce tax reforms that target overseas loopholes. Tamara’s comment: “Ah, Chicago politics writ large: Punish your foes and reward your supporters.”

U.S. Home Prices May Be Lost for a Generation: John F. Wasik



Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader GKD sent this: Pakistan Strife Raises U.S. Doubts on Nuclear Arms

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Writing at Lew Rockwell.com, SurvivalBlog regular Bill Buppert asks more than just rhetorically: At What Point is a Traitor a Patriot?

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Ignatius Piazza (of Front Sight) ponders: 40,000 Lives Lost Per Year Must Be Worth It…

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Reader Tom W. said that we shouldn’t miss the May 4, 2009 “Monty” comic strip. It has SurvivalBlog written all over it! OBTW, about a week ago , I mentioned a Dilbert comic strip with a similar theme. It seems that the survivalist mindset struck a chord in popular culture.