Economics and Investing:

HPD found this: Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis: Automotive Pension Disaster; $42 Billion in Pension Promises Completely Unfunded

Also from HPD comes word that another bank has bit the dust: BankUnited Bidders Said to Be Told Bank to Be Seized

GG sent this bit of MOAB expansion news in the Wall Street Journal: Fed Boosts Efforts to Aid Commercial Real Estate

Items from The Economatrix:

Geithner: Major Banks Have Raised $48 Billion (Under the new FASB accounting rules or the old?)

China Grows More Picky About Debt

Local Banks Face Big Losses “Study of 940 lenders shows potential for deep hit on commercial property.”

Big Changes in Store for US Credit Card Holders

John Deere Second Quarter Profit Tumbles 38%

US Housing Starts Plunges to Record Low

GM Bankruptcy Plan Eyes Quick Sale to Government

JPMorgan, Others, Line Up to Throw Off TARP Yoke

Gulf Currency Plan on Brink of Failure

Japanese Economic Decline: An Awesome Warning

Asian Shares Fall on Jitters Over US Recession

Gold: Investor Demand Soars Amid Inflation Fears

Dollar Hit as Geithner Hails Recovery Hopes

Fed: US Economy to Shrink 2% This Year

US May Create Financial Product Regulator

Day of Reckoning Looms For US Dollar “…a ‘serious case of dollar damage’ [is] underway.”

Former Head of Pension Agency Takes The Fifth

Very Bad … And Getting Worse (The Mogambo Guru)



Odds ‘n Sods:

Safecastle has announced a 25% Off Mountain House storage food sale that will be running from May 23 to June 5th. As a bonus, you’ll also get a free copy of the novel One Second After by William R. Forstchen if you purchase four or more cases of Mountain House foods

   o o o

Struggling Families Look at Adoption

   o o o

Peak Phosphorous? GG sent us a link to a summary of a new Scientific American article: Phosphorus: A Looming Crisis. (The full text of the article is not yet available on-line.)

   o o o

Brian H. was the first of several readers to mention this interesting wire service story about new ATMs that dispense gold: Gold To Go.





Notes from JWR:

Please keep The Memsahib (and her doctors) in your prayers. Her health is still quite precarious.

Today we present another entry for Round 22 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. Because I recently dropped Front Sight as an advertiser, the list of contest prizes for this round has been revised:

First Prize: A course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day OnPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 22 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Biological Threat Assessment and Containment, by Anon.T

When either you or your group is confronted with a biological threat [such as a pandemic or biological warfare], you must determine the following before making decisions either for yourself or for your group.

1) What is the threat?
2) What is the incubation period prior to showing symptoms?
3) How contagious is the threat?
4) By what means is the threat contagious?
5) What is the morbidity rate?
6) What is the mortality rate?

Once you have determined these things, you can make sound decisions that can get you and your group through a trying time.

Quarantine:
In the event that you are forced to deal with new members joining your group, [during a pandemic] you will need to quarantine them for a set period of time. This will assure you and your group that the new-comer’s presence does not cause harm within your group.

To set up quarantine you will need the following items which will be detailed below:

Shelter
Food & Water
Disinfectant
Communication equipment -or- Another pre-determined way of communicating with the quarantined.
Medicine
Symptom measuring devices and charts.
Rules that the quarantined must follow if they wish to become part of your group.
A plan should the quarantined not follow those rules.
A plan should the quarantined show symptoms and/or become sick.
A way for the quarantined to expel waste that does not pose a risk of infection to other members of the group.
There is not a single point above that can be neglected for any reason. Having to survive a biological threat has nothing to do with niceties or with comfort.

Shelter:
A place [that is downwind,] away from all group activity for the person(s) in question to be quarantined. How far away is far enough? Miles would be great but it is probably not economical so do with what you have to ensure that your group never gets within a 1,000 feet of the quarantined.

Food & Water:
Whatever the food and water that you supply or that your possible guests bring, they must have means of making it safe for human consumption.

Disinfectant:
You and the quarantined must be able to protect yourselves from the environment and the biological threat. A strong bleach solution, a rag and a bucket would be fine for disinfecting everything. Alcohol sanitizer and anti-bacterial soap are luxuries if you can afford them.

Communication:
The group and the quarantined must be able to communicate for numerous reasons. Humans get pent up if they are left in a confined place to their own devices for long and to limit the risk of the quarantined coming too close to the group, they must be able to communicate with the group from a safe distance.

Two-way radios with rechargeable batteries and a way to recharge them at the quarantine site make the best answer to the communication problem, the only problem is that they are expensive to have spares around and impossible to outlast the quarantine if power isn’t available to recharge them.

In the absence of two way radios, your group should have a pre-determined plan for communication should anyone be at risk for the threat, including any quarantined individuals.

The group should never risk entering a place of possible contamination if it can be avoided in any way, so a group should have a Communication Center set up some distance away from the quarantined and a further distance away from the group.

To allow the best ventilation, Communication Centers should never be indoors so a tree, a table or a large rock, all make adequate places.

Each member (the group and the quarantined) should have a pen and multiple sheets of paper (A dry erase board for each group would do fine) of their own to write on and leave at the communication center. Each member should understand the nature of the quarantine and the time at which the papers will be picked up, read and possibly replied to that is consistent with the length of time that the biological threat is thought to stay active on paper.
(e.g: Every 3 hours from __ a.m. – __ p.m.)

Medicine:
Your group should have medicine that can be used to treat common pains and injuries so that the quarantined can be comfortable and it will be easier to gauge their symptoms if they should have any.

Symptom Measuring Devises:
You should include devises that allow the measuring of all symptoms familiar to the threat. Some adequate symptoms measuring devices include a Thermometer, a watch for checking pulse and blood pressure and so on.

Rules:
Your group should have rules that everyone in the group must follow and separate rules that the quarantined must follow if they wish to eventually enter your group. These rules must include items like; Staying at least _00(0) feet away from every member of the group at all times, keeping the quarantine area clean and free of infection, following proper communication procedures, washing all contaminated clothing upon entering the quarantine area and being honest with the progression of any and all symptoms including minor symptoms that may or may not be related to the threat.

Contingency plan for symptoms within the quarantined:
This plan needs special consideration because the quarantined may be members of one’s own family or close friends and particular thought must be given to how they will handle the onset of symptoms and how the group must handle the quarantined should they become less than complacent including delivery of proper medication to treat the threat.

Contingency plan if the quarantined does not follow the rules:
This plan should be relatively simple. Anyone who puts your group’s health and safety at risk by not following the rules is not a valued member of any group and should be avoided like the threat itself.

Waste Expulsion:
Human waste is possibly a carrier of the threat and since it cannot be avoided it should be taken into consideration.

If there is a working toilet and sink at the quarantine site, by all means use it.

In place of a working toilet and sink, the quarantined will have to take special measures to not endanger the group. In an outdoor environment, the group will have to dig a hole at the quarantine site (Prior to the visitor’s arrival) at least 5-6 feet deep and mark that area with a flag easily visible to both the quarantined and the group. The quarantined will then need to expel all human waste in that hole and only in that hole (to limit the exposure of contaminants to the quarantine site) and then kick a little bit of the pre-dug dirt back into the hole covering the excrements.

This is the time where a little lime would go a long way. If at all possible to acquire, get some lime prior to the threat to have on storage for just such a need.

Quarantine Items:
2 – 5 Gallon bucket(s) or the equivalent.
Bleach
Rag(s)
Anti-Bacterial soap
Food that does not need cooking (Min. of incubation period worth of food if able to spare) and additional food left at communication center every day.
Water or a clean water source
2 way radios with rechargeable batteries and a battery charger
Paper and Pens should the 2-way radios give out
Gloves
Mask(s)
Flag(s) for marking human waste site
Watch for keeping time for communication and symptoms
Thermometer
Toilet Paper (If available)
Quarantine Item Set Up:
All should be able to fit within the 5 gallon bucket with the exception of food and water (Though a little will be placed in there in advance) including the following items placed on the top:

Rules of the group
Expected quarantine Time
Rules of quarantine
Rules of communication

Rules:
This will be a pre-printed or pre-written page that will be given to the prospective guests to read and decide whether they are willing to do the things necessary to join the group.

Hello,
We are very glad to see you healthy and well and are taking the health and wellness of our group extremely serious. In doing so, we have implemented rules that you must adhere to without exception if you wish to join our group.

These rules may seem tedious but we are not taking chances when human life is at stake just as we will not take chances in protecting your health or the health of any new members to our group.

Firstly, we will not be having any face to face communication. In place of this, we will provide, among other things, a 2 way radio, rechargeable batteries and a battery charger so that we may communicate with each other at all times (or another way of communicating as described later).

The current known incubation period of the threat that we face together is ____ hours or __ days. If you wish to join our group, you will be forced to quarantine yourself in a location that we provide or set for ____ hours or __ days to ensure your safety and the safety of our group. If you are not willing to follow these rules including duration of quarantine, kindly set down this sheet of paper now and walk away.

At no time will a group member come within 500 – 1,000 feet of you during your time in quarantine. This is for the protection of all members of the group and yourself. Do not violate this rule – Use the radio or the aforementioned way of communicating in it’s place.

Once you enter your quarantine location, you will be required to stay within _00(0) feet of your quarantine location until the time of quarantine is over. If you breach this _00(0) feet marker which we will set or determine, you will no longer be eligible for joining our group. Please follow this rule.

If you do not have food and water with you, food and water will be provided for you at a drop point that we will disclose later.

Human Waste:
There will be a pre-dug designated latrine that will be used for the disposal of all human waste. Human waste, which already poses a health safety hazard is not to be expelled into any container but dropped directly from your body into the designated latrine as you “go to the bathroom” after which you are required to kick dirt or shovel lime back into the latrine to cover the waste.

Food disposal:
Only prepare as much food to eat and you are going to eat. Any food that is not consumed is to be buried with the waste as noted above.

Self evaluation and symptom reporting:
We will provide you with the tools necessary to evaluate yourself. You will be required to evaluate yourself twice a day, once in the morning and once before bed. You must answer all items honestly. You are to report the following items to the group:

Appetite: None, Normal or Excessive
Vision: Clear, Blurry or Normal
Fluid Consumption: Normal, Heavy or Low
Temperature:
Physical Well-Being: Tired, Energetic or Normal
Medications taken within the last 24 hours:
Pain: None or on a level of 1 – 10 with 10 being the worst pain you’ve ever felt.
Stress Level: Low, Moderate or High
Symptoms: ________
Urine Excretion: Yellow, Cloudy or Clear (Was there a hot or burning sensation when urinating?)
Waste Excretion: How many times a day and; Loose, firm, normal or painful.
Staying Healthy:
We expect that you came to us healthy and we want to see you remain that way. Please eat 3 meals every day, drink plenty of liquids, busy yourself with items you brought or by writing a story (not involving the current situation but rather one that is purely fictional) and following the listed daily exercise recommendations:

Walking: Even in a confined area, walking moves the blood through your system and will provide a healthier you.
Arm and leg stretches: Stretching your arms and legs is a fundamental need that every body has.
Not staying in one spot or position for an extended period of time.
Brushing your teeth daily with or without toothpaste and brushing your body down (dry shower) with a rag are two essential ways of staying healthy.
Please do not perform any muscle building or muscle retaining exercises during this time. Muscle building exercises break down your current muscle to rebuild more and releases toxins into your system. Refrain from any such activity during this time so as not to confuse the symptoms of muscle breakdown with symptoms of the threat.

Positive Thought:
Negative thought will not be tolerated in our group. You are a strong person and you will get through this. Please do not let the dire nature of this threat overwhelm your sense of self worth or the free will that God gave to you. If the threat seems overwhelming, know that you are strong and pray for the endurance to see this through.

Carried Item Quarantine:
Please understand that the items that you brought with you may carry the threat on them for an unknown amount of time. The group will decide which items can be cleaned, used or disposed of without hesitation or regard to personal feelings. You may at no time keep an item that the group feels is dangerous.

That is it. Those are the rules required by anyone who wishes to join our group and anyone who leaves our group for any amount of time.

If you are not 100% sure that this move is right for you and 100% sure that you will abide by these rules, there will be no hard feelings between us. Please put this paper down on the ground, wave a goodbye and walk away now.

We thank you for your patience and understanding during these difficult times that we all must face.

If you are positive beyond doubt that you will abide by these rules and any rules that the group may impose in addition to these, please fold this paper up and place it in either your shirt or pants pocket. At this time we will disclose the location of items that we will be providing you and further our communication together.

Go on to Document #2

Document #2 – On a separate sheet of paper

Hi,

We are very glad that you have chosen to quarantine yourself from our group before joining it. This shows that you care as much about our well being as we do yours and proves your willingness to put the group’s needs ahead of your own. In no way does quarantine mean isolation, we look forward to communicating with you using the two way radios that we will provide or the use of a communication center that we will set up.

We know that this can be an emotional time. Please do not let your emotions run your self control, will for life or care for others. We are here to communicate with you throughout this entire time and we look forward to spending time with you once you join our group.

The location that you will be staying in during your quarantine is:

________________________________________________

We will provide the following items for you if you do not already have them on hand.
2 – 5 Gallon bucket(s) or the equivalent (for the cleaning of clothes and items.)
Bleach
Rag(s)
Anti-Bacterial soap
Food that does not need cooking (Min. of incubation period worth of food if able to spare) and additional food left at communication center every day.
Water or a clean water source
2 way radios with rechargeable batteries and a battery charger
Paper and Pens (In case the 2-way radios give out or for story writing)
Gloves
Mask(s)
Watch (for keeping time for communication and daily health evaluations.)
Thermometer
Toilet Paper (If available)

Radio Operation:
Provide instruction for radios here

Communication Center:
The communication center will be at the following location.

________________________________________________

We will be using the communication center for the supply or re-supply of all goods including the items that you will get once entering quarantine. We will also use it for communication if the radios fail to work properly. We will be checking for communication every ___ hours (1 hour beyond the time that the threat is thought to survive on paper) from ____ a.m. to ____ p.m. daily. Please flag a new communication by placing __________ over the paper or dry erase board for the group to see.

Proper Communication Etiquette:
As you can probably tell, we are limited by the items that we have on hand including paper. Please write legibly and please tear off the paper at the bottom of your communication so that the rest of the paper may be saved for later use.

To limit the risk of exposure, we will not be touching any communication items at the communication center. It will be your job to dispose of all paper used for communication by placing it in the latrine.

Emergency Communication:
A true emergency is something that is life threatening and that cannot wait until our next communication. We will never cry wolf to you so please express the same care and respect for us.

If the need should arise for emergency communication, the universal distress code that we will use is 3 of anything, 3 seconds apart. That means 3 loud whistles 3 seconds apart, 3 bangs on the bottom of a bucket, 3 shouts using the word “Emergency” or 3 blows on an air horn.

We will continue to use this code every 3 minutes until visual confirmation can be made of the person issuing the emergency code and the group.

Example use of the Emergency Distress Code: Whistle Whistle Whistle – Wait 3 seconds – Whistle Whistle Whistle – Wait 3 seconds and then finally Whistle Whistle Whistle now wait 3 minutes and repeat.

That covers it. We are so glad to see you well. Please fold this paper up, place it in your pocket and follow the schedule below:

Schedule:

Now:
Gather your items and bring them with you to the quarantine site.
Leave all items well outside of the quarantine site until proper decontamination can be fulfilled.
Before entering the Quarantine Site: Remove any outer clothing which may be contaminated and place all items inside the bleach/water solution that is in the bucket provided for you at the site.
Next, take a rag and rinse your body over with the bleach and water solution from head to toes. Bleach will not hurt you at the strength it is diluted to. Please wash well your hair, face, hands and all exposed body parts.
Dry off with clean rag provided.
Enter Quarantine site



Letter Re: Any Widespread Flu Will Overwhelm America’s Emergency Medical Services

Dear Mr. Rawles,
As an avid SurvivalBlog reader since ’05, I’ve got to say, the quality of your blog continues to go up and up. Just when I think I can’t possibly absorb anything more, new posts appear that make me think, plan, and act.

Upon your blog’s advice, I have begun taking an EMT class at a local college to expand my medical knowledge base. What the Paramedic teacher said today in class gave me the chills. We were discussing all manner of diseases and then he touched on H1N1, the Swine Flu and its possible affects upon the EMS system. He said that during the SARS crisis, which in our neck of the woods was just a brief scare, the volume of calls into the 911 center went up 10% for several weeks due to everyone that had a cold thinking they had SARS. The EMS crews were advised that if they transported a patient with symptoms consistent with SARS, that they were to disinfect the entire truck with a bleach and water solution from top to bottom and then allow the truck to air dry for three hours
before it was placed back into service. He noted that in our county of around 1/2 million people, there were 20 to 30 ambulances on duty at any one time. He dryly noted that it would not take much of a crisis in public health to bring the EMS system as we know it to it’s knees just based on the increase in call volume,not to mention the ambulance down-time to disinfect the vehicles.

One solution [that the instructor] hypothesized, was a system of 911 triage in a pandemic that said to callers, we will not transport you if you have the flu; you are on your own to get to the hospital. I think this point should be obvious to most SurvivalBlog readers but it dovetails nicely with the pharmacist’s postings regarding securing your anti-viral drugs now.
All the best to you and your family, – B.H.I.

JWR Adds: For anyone that missed my May 1st post about getting ready for an influenza panic, this portion bears repeating:

I recommend that SurvivalBlog readers seriously think through the implications of successive waves of Mexican Flu sweeping around the globe for the next three years. From what we’ve already seen of its virulence after the normal “cold and flu season”, then the next couple of winters could bring very high rates of infection and overwhelm the healthcare system. Please take the time to watch Dr. Henry Niman of Recombinomics discussing”Swine” flu. His projections are disturbing, to say the least! Think this through folks, on a macro scale: How would a pandemic impact your work? Commuting? Grocery shopping? Church activities? School? (If you are not yet homeschooling, then you should plan on it!) Your vacation plans? Summer camp? Family holiday get-togethers? Sports and cultural events? These implications are enormous. As SurvivalBlog readers, you are already accustomed to contemplating abstractions at this level and getting “ahead of the power curve.” You also likely have the benefit of superior training and a deep larder. And, hopefully, many of you took my advice three years ago, and began to develop home-based businesses. (Mail order businesses will undoubtedly flourish, as people shun face-to-face sales.)

There are no guarantees, but you have a better chance of getting through this unscathed than most of your neighbors. Hopefully, all of you read the backgrounder on family flu preparedness, that I’ve had posted here are SurvivalBlog for more than three years. But if not… Now is time to make the requisite adjustments to your daily routine and to top off your logistics:

  • Now is the time to order several boxes of N95 masks and rolls of bandage tape (for sealing any mask edge gaps )
  • Now is the time to buy a steam vaporizer (new, or used — Try Craig’s List for used ones)
  • Now is the time to approach your family doctor, and ask for a scrip for Tamiflu.
  • Now is the time to lay in a supply of Sambucol (Elderberry extract.)
  • Now is the time to lay in supplies of hand sanitizer (with aloe) and latex gloves–or nitrile gloves for those with latex allergies
  • Now is the time to stock up on Vitamin C, Vitamin D, and Guaifenesin expectorant
  • Now is the time to buy a couple of Bag Valve Masks
  • And lastly, for this and umpteen other contingencies, now is the time to acquire an honest one year supply of storage food (or more) for your family. Buy some extra, for charity.

If you wait too long, then those supplies will either be non-existent, or exorbitantly priced. By the time most of the sheeple think this through (or have it explained to them by the talking heads on the Idiot Box), you will have long since “topped off” your preps. But not if you hesitate. As my friend Bob in Tennessee is fond of saying: “Panic now, and avoid the rush.”

Mark my words: A true pandemic will disrupt supply chains, starting with relatively exotic items (such as antivirals), but eventually working down to basic commodities. Be ready.





Economics and Investing:

The Economy’s Search for a “New Normal” (Thanks to Richard S. for the link.)

Currie sent us this: Europe in deepest recession since War… “…The declaration was made as it emerged that Europe’s biggest economy has now suffered a worse “lost decade” than Japan and is deeper in recession than any other major economy.”

Also from Currie: Japan – Major banking groups report massive losses

Items from The Economatrix:

From the French think tank: When The World Steps Out Of A 60-Year-Old Referential Framework

As Detroit Crumbles, China Emerges as the Auto Epicenter

Don’t Count On China to Rescue the World Economy

Was The Bank Bailout Even Necessary?

BofE Makes 1 Billion Pound Profit Off of Financial Crisis Worst financial crisis in modern history = biggest profit in BofE’s 300-Year History

Companies Face Higher Derivatives Hedging Costs

Time to Get Out the Wheelbarrows? Another Look at the Weimar Hyperinflation
“It was horrible. Horrible! Like lightning it struck. No one was prepared. The shelves in the grocery stores were empty.You could buy nothing with your paper money.”

Goldfingers Wonder When to Switch to Assets

Japan’s Economy in Record Plunge



Odds ‘n Sods:

Mark A. sent a link to a LDS Preparedness Manual in PDF. This is a 222-page manual about food storage and some other topics.

  o o o

Farming and Hunting magazines among very few to increase advertising revenue. (Thanks to GG for the link.)

   o o o

The folks at the Ancient Pathways outdoor survival school mentioned that they have expanded the survival gear section of their web site and are now offering two new instructional DVDs.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." -President Theodore Roosevelt



Into the Maelstrom, and a Refuge on the Far Side

For the past few weeks I’ve let the news headlines speak for themselves, but I now feel convicted to comment on the deteriorating economic conditions. The global economy in general, and the economies of the English-speaking nations in particular are in deep, deep trouble. A massive credit bubble has popped, and all efforts to re-inflate it have failed. National congresses and parliaments, are throwing trillions at the problem, but they have done no good. The policy wonks in government, and their cronies at the central banks are essentially clueless. Their uniform reaction to each failed “stimulus” policy seems to be: “Well, that money creation didn’t work, so it obviously wasn’t enough!” This is something akin to a frustrated Emergency Room doctor, trying to resuscitate an obese cardio patient that has suffered a massive myocardial infarction. This fat blob lays torpid on the gurney, with a”flat-lined” heart monitor. The first three attempts to revive the patient didn’t work, so all that the doctor can think to do is keep increasing the voltage and slap on the paddles again. Whether the doctor is Ben Casey, or Ben Bernanke, doesn’t matter. All attempts to revive the patient with the tools at hand have failed.

As I mentioned in a recent interview with a German journalist, the central banks are using the public treasuries to attempt to re-inflate the credit bubble. This will only make the situation worse, and it will most likely turn the recession instead into a lengthy and deep depression. We are witnessing a complete meltdown of the global credit system. More credit is not the solution, and in fact loose credit via artificially low interest rates was actually the cause of the problem.

In my estimation, the only genuine long term solution to the continuing boom-bust cycle is to do away with fractional reserve banking. What we needed instead is traditional warehouse banking (without interest), and currencies that are fully-backed (1-for-1 redeemable) in gold and silver. (The only difficulty there might be the eventual drift in the ratio of the relative values of silver and gold.) Another part of the solution is in the creation of private credit clearing circles. It is noteworthy that private credit clearing has been done successfully by WIR Bank in Switzerland, for more than 60 years.

On a personal level, I recommend that SurvivalBlog readers get ready for the worst. Be prepared to hunker through a depression that may last a decade. As I’ve written before, we are are likely to see general price deflation for a couple of years followed by a nasty bout of high inflation. The latter will come once the huge cash injections work their way through the economy. Let me explain: Currently, bankers are terrified of risk, so they are refusing to lend. But eventually, realizing that because of Treasury loan guarantees that have come hand-in-hand with the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB), most bank lending will no longer have any risk or real consequences. So they will begin to lend money lavishly. The trillions of dollars in new “out of thin air” money in circulation will benefit from the multiplier effect, and mass inflation will ensue.

Given the misguided government intervention that is perpetuating widespread malinvestment, I can foresee many years of trouble ahead. Don’t consider any of the following to be firm predictions, but here are some possibilities for the next decade, in brief:

  • Declining residential real estate prices, perhaps as much another 50% in some markets
  • Declining commercial real estate prices, perhaps as much another 65% in some markets
  • A chronically weak consumer market.
  • Very few retail stores will prosper–mainly just “second hand” sellers.
  • A substantially higher personal savings rate
  • Huge corporate layoffs, resulting in a high unemployment rate
  • High property crime rates, characterized by waves of home invasion robberies in the cities and suburbs.
  • Further spikes in the foreclosure rate, most notably in 2011.
  • Higher taxes and fees at all levels, as legislators scramble to make up for lost revenue
  • Huge new “make work” programs similar to the WPA and CCC in the 1930s
  • Severe restrictions on expatriation of currency, precious metals, and gemstones
  • More frequent and larger bank failures,and possibly some bank runs
  • Major dislocation, as millions of out of work families move to find work or move in with relatives that still have reliable income
  • Crowded colleges and universities, as out of work young people gamble on increasing their marketable skills
  • The military “full up”, and turning away thousands of would-be enlistees
  • Huge pension fund failures, both private and public.
  • Huge municipal bond failures
  • Drastically scaled-back city, county, and state services–including police and fire departments
  • A stock market roller coaster ride, with multiple “sucker” rallies
  • Enormous over the counter (OTC) derivatives failures with many counterparty risks not revealed until post-facto (post-schumero)
  • Employment benefits and perquisites scaled back drastically
  • Collapsing prices for fine art collectibles, vintage wines, vintage cars, and other luxury goods.
  • Spectacular hedge fund failures
  • Traumatic bankruptcies for airlines, auto makers, newspapers, truck manufacturers, cruise lines, aircraft makers, and many other industries
  • Many major department store chains merging or going out of business
  • Consumer price deflation, followed by high inflation, with multiple currency changes
  • Wage and price controls
  • A nationalized health care system
  • Tighter immigration controls
  • A continuing and ever-expanding Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB)
  • A few bright spots in the economy may include entertainment, firearms, home security, precious metals, storage companies, some aspects of healthcare, and gardening/home canning products

In summary, we are headed into some very bad times. Be ready to hunker down and be able to fend for yourself.



Letter Re: Diverters and Pre-Filters for Roof Rainwater Catchment

Mr. Rawles,

Regarding the filter design suggested by “Dim Tim”: Consider replacing the modified stockpot with a sink. A deep stainless utility sink would be ideal, would require little alteration, and could be set up outdoors at the downspout to drain directly to a retention barrel or bladder. In a SHTF scenario, an existing indoor sink could be modified by removing the trap underneath the sink. Collected water can then be poured into the sink, filter through, and drain underneath (a food grade plastic five gallon bucket fits quite nicely.) Regards, – Tamara S.



Three Letters Re: Stocking Up on Prescription Medicines

Jim-

I want to publicly commend “SH from Georgia” on his excellent and concise article on stocking prescription drugs for a TEOTWAWKI scenario. I agree with just about every point that he has made. Adding metronidazole to the list is a great addition, and his comment about having medications on hand so that a physician might use them to your benefit is a point that I was contemplating, as well. Of course, the list of “med-prep” logistics that one could store is lengthy, and will be limited by 1. budget; 2. knowledge base, and 3. storage ability. SH’s list is very doable from all of these angles. If I were to make my own list, my only point of departure would be to emphasize again that these drugs will be quite precious. Most of the upper respiratory infections that are currently treated with antibiotics would resolve spontaneously without them, e.g., acute sinus infections, mild ear infections and a sore throat not accompanied by fever. I purposely left out amoxicillin because it is a wimpy antibiotic that is currently rarely effective for the sort of infections that will unequivocally require antibiotic therapy in an austere environment. A final recommendation: for anyone stockpiling prescription meds, having a current copy of the Physicians Drug Handbook (Not to be confused with the Physician’s Desk Reference (PDR)) would be indispensable. – RangerDoc, MD, FACS

JWR:
A quick note on one of the medications that SH from Georgia mentioned: Metformin does not usually work until you reach 1000-to-1500 MG dose. Also, it is important to note that the tablets [of this particular medication] should not be cut. Everyone should always double check everything concerning medications. All the drugs [in this family] are also now going to have black box warnings soon for possible heart problems! – Russell M.

 

Hello,
I am a retail pharmacist in Philadelphia. The letters with regard to stocking up on medication and medical supplies were great. I’m glad to see other Pharmacists into preparedness. There are a few other things I thought I would mention.

A good topical anti-fungal cream could prevent a lot of unpleasantness. Generic Lotrimin (clotrimazole) applied twice daily for a week or two can treat ringworm (a fungal skin infection), athlete’s foot and jock itch. Lamisil and Lotrimin Ultra are a bit more potent but probably aren’t worth the additional cost.

SH’s letter was great and he really knows his stuff. Another antibiotic that might be useful in people who are allergic to amoxicillin/penicillin, etc (those same people can also be cross-sensitive to cephalosporins (keflex, etc)) is azithromycin (z-pak) or erythromycin (ery-tab). They are broad-spectrum and are usually tolerated well (some G.I.side effects like cramping and diarrhea).
If someone is unable to find a like-minded prescriber there are plenty of veterinary medicines that can be used by people available at pet supply/agricultural stores. I have seen tetracycline, amoxicillin, and sulfa drugs which were to be used on everything from fish to horses. These would be fine to use in post-SHTF circumstances. They go by different brand names but are the same medicine. One would just have to take care to use appropriate dosing as they are usually in different strengths than human dosage forms. Ragnar Benson has some books on these topics.

Another thing is to have a good supply of natural medicines available(grow echinacea as an antibiotic and elderberry as an antiviral (flu prevention/treatment). There are many others.
Staying in good health and thinking “preventative” is a good way of decreasing the effects of some of the major killers. It seems as though the American way of life conditions many people to wait until a problem occurs to start thinking about their health, but you wouldn’t wait until your engine locks up to change your oil. Diabetes, heart disease and cancer risk can be reduced by proper diet, exercise, stopping smoking, etc. This will allow you to be free of any “maintenance medications”, insulin, etc. that might be difficult or expensive to stockpile.
I just finished reading “Patriots” , it is awesome work! Take care, – S.T. in Philly