Economics and Investing:

The new class divide: Debt; In hard times, how much money you make matters less than how much you owe. Many of today’s have-nots are yesterday’s gotta-have-it-alls

Matt B. and Cheryl both sent a link to an animated map that shows job growth and losses for the past few years. Cheryl’s comment: “As the timeline progresses to August , 2009, it looks like a nuclear blast map.” Correlate that map with my Recommended Retreat Areas. Where will crime be higher in the next few years?

Items from The Economatrix:

Obama, Facing High Unemployment, Defends Stimulus

Betting The Fed

Bankruptcy Filings Rise to 6,000 a Day Due to Job Loss

Bankruptcy’s Hidden Toll: The Little Guys

Celente: Exclusive Interview

13 Cities Post Unemployment Higher Than 15% for April

Real Unemployment Situation 26,000,000 unemployed or underemployed, $10/hr jobs growing, $20/hr jobs disappearing
The article begins: “On Friday, we learned that the unemployment rate jumped to 9.4 percent from last month’s 8.9 percent. The BLS data surveys 160,000 businesses and government agencies that affect roughly 400,000 people so the data does cover a large portion of Americans and gives us a good sample size. The markets were largely moving sideways on Friday unable to make sense of the mixed data because we are still largely living through a highly volatile market.”

Gold At $2,000

Welcome to the Savage World of the Year 2009

“Welcome to the savage world of the year 2009”. That was the tag line of the 1992 sci-fi film Freejack , starring Emilio Estevez. Do you remember it? The movie that featured Cadillac Gage V100 wheeled APCs painted in bright colors? My old friend All-Grace-No-Slack-Really-Reformed Kris just reminded me about this movie. Kris noted: “It was a bit corny but it had some good scenes and characters such as Amanda Plummer as the gun-toting nun.” This film provides an insight on what futurists then thought 2009 would be like, as well as a retrospective on life in 1992.

Let’s look back at 1992: It is amazing how much the world has changed since 1992. To me, it doesn’t seem that long ago. In 1992 I was 32 years, old, and our first child was an infant. In 1992, .308 ball cost $180 per thousand rounds, a Colt M1911 cost around $350, and cases of MREs could be bought at gun shows for around $30 each. Back in those days, I was running a mail order business from home, selling magazines. I was buying M1 Carbine 15 round magazines in cases of 100, for $90 per case, and re-selling them by the onesees and twosees for $3 per magazine. (One of my “get rich slow” ventures.) In 1992, you could still buy a plane ticket for cash, and stroll right up to the departure gate without a ticket in hand. Yes, there was a metal detector, but you could board a commercial flight with a pocketknife with a single-edge blade less than 2-1/2″ long. (Remember when knife catalogs had “Airline approved” models?) In 1992, gasoline was $1.05 per gallon ($1.09 for premium), and a good loaf of bread still cost 49 cents. In 1992 you could take a car trip into Mexico or Canada, with a smile and the wave of your state driver’s license.

In 1992, I owned a small ranch near Orofino, Idaho. House prices there ranged from $39,000 to $155,000. (In 1989, we had paid $29,000 for an unfinished house on 40 acres.) Silver started that year at $4.20 per ounce, but drifted down to under $3.70 in December. (It was still in the midst of a two-decade long bear market.) A semi-auto AK-47 cost $179, an AR-15 was around $500, and an M1A was $800.

Fast forward to 2009: The local gun shops are chronically short of ammunition, and what little they do receive from their wholesalers sells out immediately, at an average of $1 per round. Today .308 ball costs $900 per thousand rounds, a Colt M1911 costs around $1,200. A case of MREs can cost upwards of $90, and a loaf of bread is anywhere from 99 cents for the dreadful “air bread” to $4.69 for the good stuff. Gas is back up to more than $2.50 per gallon. A semi-auto AK-47 costs around $700, a low-end AR-15 is around $1,200, and a standard grade M1A is $1,600 if you can find one. Today, people line up like sheep and remove their shoes before boarding an airplane, and opening a checking account requires umpteen pieces of identification. Now, thanks to “Homeland Security” regulations, they will turn you down if you don’t have a physical street address. (BTW, that gets a bit sticky here in The Unnamed Western State, where lots of my neighbors live so far back in the boonies that they don’t have a street address. The bankers get all befuddled if you start quoting the Township, Range, and Section numbers of your quarter-section.

In 2009, house prices are still plummeting from their 2006 highs, but still quite “spendy.” A house around Orofino with a good spring now costs around $400,000. Who knows? In the current bear market, the price of houses may not bottom until they are close to their 1992 levels. Oh, and wait a minute! Firearms manufactuers are now working around the clock, and prices are expected to soon come back down. In 1992, a Steyr AUG cost $800, but then they peaked in 2008 at around $4,000. But now new production AUGs (made by Steyr in the US) have hit the market for under $1,800. You gotta love a free market economy. Maybe the more that things change, the more they remain the same.

The “Freejack” script was loosely based on Robert Sheckley’s novel “Immortality, Inc.” The screenwriters had a few things right, but plenty of things wrong. For example, the “destroyed ozone layer” hasn’t wrecked our health. And I don’t feel at risk of my brain being hijacked. But, then again, I don’t own a television.

Letters Re: Advice for an M4 and AR-15 Newbie

Some tips to ad on to your good advice [in reply to the letter “Advice for an M4 and AR-15 Newbie”]:

The field manual is good, but these two books coupled with some classes from Front Sight, EAG Tactical, Magpul Dynamics, Viking Tactics, Vickers Tactical, CSAT (Paul Howe), or another reputable school are the most valuable.

Green Eyes and Black Rifles: Warriors Guide to the Combat Carbine  by Kyle Lamb.

The M16/M4 Operators Handbook by Mike Panone. Kudos to the writer for “buying right, buying once” with the LMT. That is a very nice rifle.

Regarding spare parts: The BCM SOPMOD Extractor Upgrade kit is a “must have” in the spare parts bin.

Regards, – Matt L.

Letter Re: Storing Paper and Envelopes

Jim;
After reading “Patriots” one thing that has stuck with me is the non-availability of writing paper: No paper, no envelopes. Now there won’t be any mail delivery either but envelopes have many other uses. One of these is garden seed storage. Keeping notes together in ones jacket etc.

So i have been taking the envelopes that come in my monthly bills ( I pay with my online banking) and those that come in all the various offers that you get for magazines, insurance quotes etc. and put them in a box.

They don’t take up much room and can easily be tossed if this proves a non-issue but if i need them , well , they will be here.

To top it off this is a no cost prep effort. – Paulette

Economics and Investing:

traded for crack, Syracuse police say

The Hardest Jobs to Fill in America: If you’re looking for work in any of these fields, you’re in luck.

Items from The Economatrix:

Weiss: Feds Giving “Lip Service” to Fiscal Responsibility “Weiss recommends everyone ‘make severe sacrifices in order to save money and to build up cash reserves for future bad times.'”

Appeals Court Upholds Sale of Chrysler to Fiat

Federal Jobs Lost in May: 345,000 Is “a little better” now the measure of success?

Securitization: The Biggest Rip-Off Ever; Financial Dereg Has Opened Pandora’s Box “The former head of the FDIC, William Seidman, figured it all out back in 1993 when he was cleaning up after the S&L fiasco. Here’s what he said in his memoirs: ‘Instruct regulators to look for the newest fad in the industry and examine it with great care. The next mistake will be a new way to make a loan that will not be repaid.’ (Bloomberg) ‘That’s it in a nutshell. The banks never expected the loans would be paid back, which is why they issued them to ninjas; applicants with no income, no collateral, no job, and a bad credit history.'”

The Most Important Economic Indicator You’ve Never Heard Of (The Baltic Dry Index, and yes, you’ve heard of it at SurvivalBlog.)

GM’s Dismantling Opens Doors for Foreign Carmarkers

New Bull Run Called By Tracker of Dow’s Historical Trends. [JWR Adds: My Barbra Steisand meter is pegging.]

Science Reinvents the Economy: Bubble Math

Biden: Obama to Ramp Up Stimulus Efforts “Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has lost a net total of 6 million jobs. “

Most US Stocks Fall, Led By Banks, On Interest Rate Concern

Odds ‘n Sods:

KAF found this: Hey Homebuyers, Beware A False Bottom Before You Make That Bid

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Bob at Ready Made Resources mentioned that they are offering special pricing on their photovoltaic (PV) power systems. They offer systems scaled for all budgets. Since I expect that the Federal 30% tax credit on alternative energy systems will soon be cancelled, I most strongly encourage SurvivalBlog readers to go ahead and install a PV power system soon.

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I noticed that the 2008 movie Defiance has been released on DVD. This film was based on the book Defiance: The Bielski Partisans by Nechama Tec.

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KT mentioned eh good news that Tennessee now has a “Made in…” Federal exemption gun law much like the ones that Montana and Texas have already enacted.

 

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Every collectivist movement rides in on a Trojan Horse of ’emergency’. It was a tactic of Lenin, Hitler and Mussolini.” – Herbert Hoover, Memoirs: The Great Depression (1951)

Letter Re: Thermostatic Switches for Wood Heat Forced-Air Room Heating

James,

[For for wood heat forced-air room heating], I recommend using one of these switches that opens when the temperature drops below 115 degrees, and closes when the temp rises above 130 degrees. Mount it where it will “see” the heat but not be exposed the maximum heater temperatures. On the support legs would probably be sufficient. This might have to run through a small relay that has contacts that can handle the motor starting and run currents. Depends on the fan motor ratings. Regards, – David H.

Letter Re: Advice for an M4 and AR-15 Newbie

Hello JWR:
I recently bought my first AR-15[-family firearm], a Lewis Machine and Tool (LMT) Defender Carbine. I was wondering if you had any advice as to a good starter “book” on the AR generally, but also one that would assist in my rifleman’s training. I am an intermediate shooter on rifle, but am finding the AR to be a beast unto itself as far as “how” to shoot it.

Can you recommend any text on complete takedown, best cleaning practices, replacement parts, and marksmanship with the M4 version of the AR would be very helpful. Thanks! – JB in Michigan

JWR Replies: In terms of field stripping and general maintenance, the Army’s old standby M16 User Manual (M16A1 Rifle Operator’s Manual TM 9-1005-249-10 ) will suffice, but it is so simplistic (small format, and little more than a glorified comic book) that it is probably not worth paying more than two bucks for one. Look for these in bargain bins at gun shows. OBTW, I noticed that it is also available as a Kindle book for 99 cents.

The US Army’s M16/M4 marksmanship manual is available for free download. FM 3-22.

Walt Kuleck and Scott Duff’s The AR-15 Complete Owner’s Guide: (AR-15 Guide Volume 1) is a bit dated but still quite good, and discusses spare parts. (Note: Although I authored the chapter about AR-15 magazines that is included in this book, I do not earn any royalties from the publisher. (That chapter was based, with permission, on my AR-15.M16 Magazine FAQ which I make available free of charge.) OBTW, Walt Kuleck and Clint McKee also authored a companion AR builder’s guide, which is particularly useful in these times of scarcity: AR 15 Complete Assembly Guide (AR-15 Guide Volume 2)

You might also look for a US Army armorer’s manual: Rifle, 5.56MM, M16A2 W/E/ Carbine, 5.56MM, M4 Unit and Direct Support Maintenance Manual TM 9-1005-319-23&P

Note: In hard copies, army field manuals (FMs) and Technical Manuals (TMs) are fairly expensive to mail order, but they are often available inexpensively in PDF format in compilation CDs from folks like Survival eBooks. As I recall, this compilation CD includes FM 3-22.

In terms of weapons handling and tactical use (fire and maneuver), I strongly recommend getting a copy of The Art of the Tactical Carbine DVD. (At first glance, this DVD might look like just a promotional piece for Mag-Pul, but there are actually some real gems included!) I also recommend the book “Some of the Answer: Urban Carbine” by firearms trainer and M4 guru Jim Crews.

Spare Parts:
Ideally, it would be best to a have a complete spare carrier assembly, to provide a quick “in the heat of battle” replacement in case you break a firing pin or extractor, or you have the misfortune to gall an ejector. In-the-field swaps are possible because 99% of AR-15 bolts are “automatic headspacing”, if the bolt and barrel are both made to proper specifications. Hence bolts or complete bolt carrier assemblies are drop-in replacements. If you are on a tight budget, get just one each of these critical high breakage/high loss subcomponents from the bolt carrier group:

  • Firing pin
  • Firing pin retaining pin
  • Ejector
  • Ejector spring
  • Ejector retaining pin
  • Extractor
  • Extractor retaining pin
  • Extractor spring (with nylon insert)

The only other parts that I’ve seen break (or get lost) are ejection port cover springs and buffer retainers. However, both of those are non-critical to the function of the rifle. Buttstocks and handguards also break. (Albeit, less frequently). If you have a generous budget, get spares of all of those in addition to a complete spare bolt carrier assembly, and perhaps even a complete spare lower parts kit (“LPK”).

Letter Re: A Useful Web Site on Government Auctions

Good evening, Mr. Rawles –
I always enjoy reading your site and find it informative, with plenty of links and good advise on just about everything.

One site I’d recommend for your readers is GovDeals.com. It has a wide variety of goods on an ongoing basis, with generators, trailers, tractors, and a
lot more.

I spotted one lot in particular that seems to be a kind of ‘starter barter kit’.

I’m not connected with this web site in any way. In fact, most of the best ones seem to be too far away for me to take advantage of. “Them’s the breaks”, I guess. – Mark

JWR Replies: Thanks for that link. A similar site that I’ve found useful is GovLiquidation.com. If you keep an eye out there for items like concertina wire, commo wire, sand bags, camouflage nets, medical freezers, and trailer-mounted diesel gensets, then you can find some real bargains. Warning: Government surplus auctions can be habit forming. Seek counseling and intervention if you become addicted. A key symptom: Your barn and shop begin to overflow with “bargain” military surplus.

Economics and Investing:

Reader Ken M. mentioned that the full text of the book When Money Dies: The Nightmare of the Weimar Collapse is available at the Ludwig Von Mises Institute web site.

Frequent content contributor KAF suggested a piece at the Fuelishness blog: Oil Prices Continue to Spike Despite Massive Surplus – Outpacing Economic Recovery

Items from The Economatrix:

Illinois Bank of Lincolnwood Fails, 37th For Year, 6th in State

Dr. Gary North: Stock Market Investors Mindset of Guaranteed Economic Destruction

“And when things turn out much worse than even most newsletter writers are forecasting, you will be hated. Are you prepared for this?
Do you have a real plan to deal with what is obviously an unfolding disaster: rising government ownership, massive deficits, rising unemployment, falling house prices, busted retirement pensions, rising interest rates (falling corporate bonds), and Federal Reserve inflation on a scale never seen in American history?
Or do you think you can delay. “No problem!”

Either Stocks Will Fall 37% or Gold Will Rally 60%

No US Bear Market Bottom Until 2011

US Housing Mortgage Market Meltdown, More Pain to Come

The Great Crash Not Over, Stocks Bear Market Rally Built On Sand

Stock Market Rally: Focusing on the Facts

Crude Oil Imminent Trend Reversal

Ending of Deflation Fears, Big Inflation Coming “In fact, per the US government’s own GDP data, since early 2006 the US economy has only grown 11.0%, a far cry from the 40.4% the Fed has grown MZM over this span. And since early 2008, GDP is actually dead flat at 0.4% while MZM money has soared 16.8%. In both cases the excesses are pure inflation, new dollars created out of thin air that are now chasing a relatively smaller pool of things. Higher general prices are the inevitable result. And boy, if you exist you know this! Over the past several years, have your costs of living risen or fallen? Is your food at grocery stores and restaurants getting cheaper or more expensive? Are your utilities bills and insurance costs rising or falling? Do you feel like you have more disposable income after necessary expenses or less? We all see this relentless and very real inflation no matter what the government statisticians try to tell us. The nominal cost for existence just keeps rising and rising thanks to the Fed.”

This Stock Market is a Fool’s Paradise

Odds ‘n Sods:

Grandpappy (a past prize winner in our writing contest) has posted a timely new article on low-cost ammunition at his site.

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Not surprisingly, this news story comes from Madison, one of Wisconsin’s most liberal meccas: Wisconsin City Cracks Down On Fake Guns. “Madison police are starting to tell children as early as first grade that the fake guns are dangerous and put both the holder and officers in dangerous positions.”

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JHB flagged this: Obama Now Wants Your Pocket Knife. Let’s nip this in the bud. Germany now has a ban on “ein hand messers“. If we aren’t vigilant, we could be next.

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From KAF: Can We Count on Native Bees to Replace Honeybees?