Prepping: A Labor of Love, by Sparky

My preparedness journey began when my mother in law was dying, and we had to get out of the house for a while. At a flea market, on the bottom shelf, was a book titled “Making the Best of Basics”. The cover caught my attention, and before we went home that night, I had read and re-read the book. I am a union electrician, subject to layoffs, and my husband is a self-employed painter. The idea that I needed to prepare came easy for me. I thought I had done well, always buying extra for the pantry. But water? Oops. I hadn’t thought about that one. So, I started doing the things in the book, and my mind was always going, and the lists got longer.

When I started to realize that I had a lot to do, I shared my thoughts with my best friend. Instead of laughing, she got on board. We discussed my home as the retreat. Although it doesn’t fit every need, it has a lot to offer. We are on a gravel, lightly populated road, about 20 minutes from a medium city. We have a well, and two acres. Our home has a basement, where we are working to get things organized. We know most of our neighbors, and have a community here. One neighbor plows our drive when it snows, and has for two years now. We treat him to his favorite brew on occasion to thank him, and I have even taken him a bowl of hot soup when he arrives.

Worst case scenario, we could have as many as 30 family members here, with varied skills, but it is a momentous task to try to prepare for that many people.
Last spring, my friend and I built raised garden beds that are still producing. We used recycled bleachers for the boxes, old shelving and other “trash” for the trellises. An old hog waterer with the waterer cut out, set in the ground at the proper angle, with a double pane window on it, became a cold frame. We also have the supplies to expand the garden next year. It is actually a very pretty garden!
I have dried tomatoes, onions, cabbage, apples, mushrooms, eggs, plums; canned anything that I had time to, and jellied, with new recipes for dandelion jelly, zucchini jam, and cantaloupe jam. My three garage sale dehydrators run most of the time. I have studied new and old methods of drying. I keep sodium metabisulfite, but also use the older method of using salt and vinegar rinses to preserve color. I have learned a lot, and my family is scrounging for jars for me. The supply is dried up here, mostly due to the awakening of some of the sheeple.

After consideration of a generator, it was decided that the best route for us was to just ready ourselves to be off grid. Second-hand shops have provided hank crank blenders, food processors, meat grinders, and other kitchen helpers. A friend helped build an Amish [summer canning] kitchen from some table legs, wood, and a Freecycled propane cooktop. One plus to this that we didn’t consider—the stove is lower in height, which is helpful when working with canners. One thing that we did consider—a hundred gallons of propane will work this stove, or the propane stove in the kitchen, for a year and a half. A couple of extra tanks are on the list to obtain! By putting the cooktop outside, we don’t heat the house up, which now helps the air conditioning bill, and will definitely help later, when it is just hot, and there is no air conditioning. We can also use it in the barn or basement if the weather necessitates. We also have propane heaters, and for emergencies, canned heat. (The latter is a 1-quart steel paint can, with a roll of toilet paper with cardboard liner removed, 16 ounces of alcohol. Directions for making these can be found on the LDS preparedness sites [such as www.ProvidentLiving.org.].)

We have been learning to save our own seeds, and I have been studying some animal husbandry, expecting to get some small livestock. We also have laid in a supply of sprouting seeds, and use them.
I now store water, and using the PACE system means that we have several means of getting more. For now the well is primary, the hand pump is alternate, the stored water is contingent, and the rain water, pond water, etc. would be the emergency. However, we also have our eyes on a pump that would be inline, and pressurize the tank. This will happen soon if things hold out a while! Although I store drinking water, I also started saving detergent bottles for non-potable water. I don’t even rinse them. When we are without water, and have dishes or laundry to do, those bottles will work perfectly, even offering up the remnants of the soaps in them.

Solar and human generated power are ideas that I am investigating, and if time permits, we should have minimal power, with minimal outlay. I hope that my electrical abilities will help here! Several years ago I installed some solar powered flood lights on my parents’ home, and now plan to put some both on and in my home. I do understand that during the probable turmoil, their use would be limited to avoid the target on our backs. However, eventually things will settle, and they would be of great use. By eliminating the motion sensor and photo-eye, and direct-wiring a switch, these lights could work in the house as well, and would need only a path for the solar cell wire, i.e. through a window. This would be fine as a temporary fix until more permanent work could be done.
I was able to find a supplier locally for wheat, where I am the only customer. Not only do I grind flour, making our own breads when time permits, but we sprout it for both us and our dogs. Incidentally, our older dog was having some health issues, and I started adding sprouts to the dog food. Within a couple of weeks, he was acting like a puppy, and his chronic halitosis had vanished.
I also found a neighbor who grows corn, who took my order for about 10 bushel, when the moisture content is down and we can store it. Guess some cornbread with all those beans would be a welcome thought.

I found an article for a vacuum pump, which is worth sharing. I had seen build-it-yourself pumps, but with all the preps, building one was not in the time allotment. However, you can go to your local auto store, and get a brake bleeder, with a gauge and several attachments, very reasonably. I obtained the mason jar sealers, and now seal all my dehydrated foods with vacuum on them. Just put the conical end on the bleeder, press it into the jar attachment, and pump away. When you remove the pump, the jar seals. A mason jar will hold 20 inches (Hg) of vacuum, which, by the way, will collapse a five gallon bucket. Don’t ask me how I know. Seal your buckets with a little less vacuum!

My friend and her mom got on board early, and are both also prepping. We are in the process of getting a community inventory, so we know what we all need to work on. My mother was supportive, but not overly helpful until this month. Along with jars, tins, and the usual things on my list from garage sales, she has started getting winter clothes, socks, etc. She also gave me a nice check to help with whatever we need, and pledged to give more. My husband has become more supportive as the economy teeters, and is also now actively engaged in the OPSEC end of our needs.

Our children are like most kids, struggling to survive. However, they also pick up an extra bag of rice or can of beans when they can, and send it. I have given them ideas on putting things away when you can barely afford to eat. Every week, get at least one item. Even on a bad week, you can afford a box of salt, rice, beans, pudding, or a can of milk. They also know (thanks to SurvivalBlog) what they need to look for, and when to get headed home.

If you had told me 10 months ago how very many hours I could find in a day, week, or month, to do all these things, I would have laughed. Now I look at the garden, and see not only hours spent with my best friend, laughing as she learned to use a drill, but the many meals we ate, and will still eat, from our bleacher boxes. I walk to the basement, and see the supplies there. I see the full jars of home processed foods, and enjoy just looking at the fruits of my labor. I see the first aid box, and the many other medical supplies, and feel some peace. I look in the closet in my office, and find sleeping bags, blankets, and other items to help out family when they are forced here.

I don’t throw anything out any more, without asking myself if it has another purpose. My family has lists of things that they are to watch for, and I often come home from visits with the car full of goodies.
Remember, having all your supplies means nothing if you don’t know how to use them. Eat wheat, sprout seeds, grow a garden, learn to use the canners, and lay in a supply of jars and lids. Learn to cook with your essentials, stay warm with less heat, and amuse yourself without television.

Are we ready? Not by a long shot! The more I know, the more I know that I don’t know! But knowledge is power, and I do know that when things happen, I am much more prepared that most, and we have a plan. Your blog site has been invaluable, and as times become more unpredictable, you are the first thing I check when I log on. Although I struggle with the fears of not having enough done, I know that we will not panic. What we have begun is a new way of life that takes what we have today, and builds on it for tomorrow. Lists will be filled, and peace grows. God is good, and gives us much. It is our responsibility to use it wisely. He can only guide our steps if we start walking. Then we have to count on Him to take care of the things we can’t. Thanks again for what you do! Sparky



Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader “Mongoose” in the UK and Mark S. both sent us this: Iceland and the UK square off in a strange new financial Cold War

   o o o

Numerous budget shortfalls around the nation: States That Can’t Pay for Themselves.

   o o o

Katya sent us these links for your weekend reading displeasure: Iceland Teeters On Edge Of Economic Collapse; Banking Woes Spread Across EuropeCouncils fear for Icelandic cashBanking on gold.. And then Cheryl (our Economic Editor) sent all these: Wall Street Ends Worst Week Ever With Wild TradingDow’s Worst Week Comes To An End (Total Decline For Week 2400 Points, 22.1% Loss, Worst Ever) — Oil Falls To 13-month Low As Investors Grow More PessimisticEuropean Markets Slump FurtherMorgan Stanley Drops Into Single DigitsMorgan Stanley Credit Rating May Be CutGlobal Stock SelloffCompanies Hardest Hit By Credit CrisisLondon: Worst Ever Opening As Markets SlideAsian Stocks Plunge Again; Crisis DeepensUK Prepares For Mass UnemploymentFDIC Insurance Not A Sure ThingGlobal Auto Market May Collapse In 2009US Mint: Unprecedented Demand For Gold EaglesBush Forced Into Diminished Role In Economic CrisisFed Lends Record $431 Billion as of WednesdayPotential Economic Seizure Dead AheadCentral Banks Panic As Bailouts Fail To Halt Stock Market CrashGold Ready To Skyrocket?GE’s Profits Drop 22%G-7 Meets on Crisis as Italy Splits Over `Weak’ DraftDow Average May Be Poised To Fall To 7,000Berlusconi Reverses Claim Re Closing World MarketsUS To Buy Stake In Banks

   o o o

Eric flagged this one: Plug-In Hybrids Aren’t Coming — They’re Here



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“University of Maryland economist Herman E. Daly points out that the current crisis is really one of the “overgrowth of financial assets relative to growth of real wealth.” Daly believes that “financial assets have grown by a large multiple of the real economy” and that “paper exchanging for paper is now 20 times greater than exchanges of paper for real commodities.” Exploding debt liens have simply outgrown the wealth. The problem, in other words, cannot be bailed out. Historically, debt that cannot be redeemed has been repealed by inflation. The same inflation that wipes out debt will wipe out savings.” – Former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Paul Craig Roberts, in Can a Bailout Succeed?



Letter Re: Everyday Carry Pocketknife Recommendation?

Mr. Rawles:
I’ve seen your recommendations on guns for survival situations, but what do recommend for “Everyday Carry” kinda pocket knives? And what do you carry personally? Thanks, – H.Y.

JWR Replies: My general preference is for “low-end” stainless steel folding knives with a positive lock, and with tanto-style tips. In my experience tantos are less prone to getting broken tips. For versatility, I also tend toward knives that are serrated in the back half of the blade. (Commonly called “50/50” or “half-serrated”.) My everyday carry knife is an extra large (5″ blade) Cold Steel 29 XTH Voyager. On occasions when I need something smaller, I carry a CRKT M16 with a 2.75-inch blade. Again, it is stainless, half serrated, and has tanto style tip. During deer and elk season, a I substitute a Case clip-point folder.

It is noteworthy that I’ve never spent more than $55 for one of my pocketknives–and far less for most. (I buy a lot of used knives at gun shows and on eBay. Why pay full retail?) My philosophy is that a knife is is an everyday tool to use, not an object of art to admire. If I owned a really nice custom knife, then I’d probably baby it, fearing that I might somehow damage it. And if I were to lose it out in the field, a $300+ Chris Reeve folder, it would be a heartbreaking experience. But by buying mass-produced knives, I avoid both of those issues. I don’t abuse my knifes, but I don’t shy away from giving them honest, hard use. I’d also much rather own six $50 knives than one $300 knife. That fits with the SurvivalBlog preparedness philosophy of “two is one, and one is none.”

OBTW, when shopping for used pocketknives, one trick I’ve discovered to use when searching eBay is to search on the desired brand name AND knives AND TSA, by searching both titles and descriptions (or alternatively, the desired brand name AND knives AND confiscated. These searches will show you lots of used knives that were confiscated by airport screeners. These are often name brand knives sold in groups of 2 to 10, typically resulting with winning bids between 10% to 30% of normal retail.



How to Buy in Quantity When on a Tight Budget, by Robert in Arizona

Let me start out, with the simple fact that we all need to prepare. And with that in mind, you must have asked yourself a million times, how can I achieve my goals for survival and food preparedness for my family on a very low or tight budget?
Well the answer is simpler than you think!
Think thrifty. Yes, thrift stores and Mom and Pop outlets are a true blessing in disguise.
All of the things you might want to buy for home canning, food prep, food storage, Camping, Cooking, Clothes, Boots, Sleeping bags, etc. can be found right under your nose in these stores.

When you are there, make sure you get to know the employees, this will give you the upper edge to a bargaining Bonanza, as I have done with all of my local stores and shops, and you also want to make sure you keep the donations coming into them as well! Just by cleaning out all of your unwanted items in your closet and garage. Also, when certain employees help you, return the favor somehow. Believe me they will always remember you, and they give you the best deals each and every time you return to their store. They will actually place stuff that you are looking for and want, in the back of the store and hold it there for you, until your next visit. This saves you the time and money and the trouble and hassle of buying the items new. And, well over a 75% savings from retail prices.You can even write out lists of items that you are looking for, for each shop, and still keep a low profile to your activities.

Here are some examples of the different things I have requested from and purchased:
If you notice I request different items from different stores, depending on what they stock and there inventories. (This will keep your profile low, because, when they are purchased at different locations it doesn’t raise eyebrows!)

Store #1. Golden Valley Swap Meet, and Rummage sale, (Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays) State Rte. 68, Golden Valley, Arizona. There are a lot of old timers here, willing to barter, trade, and give you an old time lesson on everyday things we take for granted. The shops range from household items to clothes, homemade candles and lanterns, canning goods, including fresh Honey and salsa’s that are hand canned. made from peppers and honey from farms in Arizona. There are also gold prospecting tools, old and modern tools, and clothes.

Store #2. Salvation Army , Bullhead City, Arizona 86442 , Located on Palma Drive, this store caters to the Homeless so they get a lot of fishing, camping gear, to include backpacks, stoves, lanterns, mess kits, canteens, duffel bags, backpacks, sometimes even military rucksacks, water filters, home filters, chlorine powder, heavy winter clothes, boots.

Store #3.Treasure Island Thrift Shop, Bullhead City, Arizona. Only caters in factory seconds, and Auctioned New Items. This is where I purchase Food Saver [vacuum packaging] equipment and food dryer racks. I also scored on 16 brand new mercury thermometers, for two-for-$1 and three brand new Camelbak 1-liter hydration bladders for $5 each.

Store #4. Dave & Fran DePuy, Auctioneers, 551 Christy Plaza Kingman, Arizona. 86409, lots of cool stuff almost each and every weekend, 55 gallon water drums new for $5 each. propane tanks for $1, to $5, chain saw for $10, every week it’s a bargain for lots of stiff, I have even bought beyond my personal needs and resold the extra items on eBay and Craig’s List to recoup some cash, and sometimes even made a profit.

Store #5.Marina Thrift Store, Marina Blvd., Bullhead City, Arizona. Since construction went belly up in Mohave county, the thrift stores are overwhelmed with construction tools, paint, nuts bolts. Thousands of items for pennies on the dollar. I picked up a $50 framing hammer for $4 there, as well as two kegs of nails for $10 per keg.

Store #6. Freedom Military Surplus, Mesa, Arizona, it’s not local and is a drive for me, but the deals are fabulous, and worth the trip, every time I go there–roughly once a month, to see what is new there, last trip I scored on US military Gas masks with a 2007 date, new in the box for $25 each mask with two filters.

Store #7.Palace Pawn Shop, Bullhead City, Arizona , simply the best for my two-way, MURS, CB, GPS and other communication needs. Pawn shops are the best, and the cost is 1/3 of the new store prices. last week I picked up a Garmin GPSMAP 60CSx for $100 bucks out the door, and it was brand new in the box. These are normally $329 in the big stores. This saved me $229 plus tax!)

I have purchased many duplicate items, for trade, barter and for my family.
Goodwill and the Salvation Army are two of the best stores and they cater to the locals, and will give you great deals, and you can feel confident that your purchase dollars are going right back into the community to help people and families that are less fortunate than you or I.

As it has helped me to be more frugal and cost minded when I shop, especially for bulk food items at the “big” warehouse stores. And the savings have offset my budget to be able to stock up on more Beans, Bullets, and Band-Aids!

So in closing, you do not always need to buy the newest, biggest, and top of the line stuff when it could possibly be right under your nose, in new, like new, or used (but not abused) condition, for pennies on the dollar. – Robert in Arizona.



Letter Re: Buying Just One Gun?

Good Morning:
In response to the gentleman who wants to own just one gun: Obviously, his mindset is biased against gun ownership. Nothing wrong with that, to each his own. But, I would suggest that he really needs to get his mind squared away before even considering buying anything. Once the bias is corrected, and he has made the decision that he really needs a firearm…..then have him go to his local gun store where they have a range, rent a 38 revolver, a box of shells, some ear plugs and muffs and have at it. I wouldn’t recommend starting with anything smaller. He would need to feel the power of the instrument to resolve his indecision. Most gun store owners will be glad to give him an introduction to the rented piece and show him how to point it downrange and pull the trigger!

Gun ownership is a responsibility not to be taken lightly. He should know this. He also should know that wanting a weapon “just because I think I should have one” is not a viable reason to assume responsibility for a piece of gear that can be used at the discretion of the owner in both a positive and a negative way.

From the sound of his letter, and not being derogatory, [I am making an assumption here]; he lives in a large city, has never hunted in his life, and doesn’t know the first thing about firearms. In that case, my recommendation for a “first ” firearm would be the Ruger GP-100 357 revolver. No bells and whistles, American quality, won’t blow up in your hand like some of this cheap imported cr*p will (I’ve been there), and when push comes to shove (life and death), there are no thoughts of releasing a safety , magazines or other buttons to push. Ammo is cheap, the ladies like shooting it with .38 [S&W cartridges] s chambered. Some even like it loaded with .357 [Magnum cartridges]. It is also very accurate. I recommend that he purchase the weapon legally at the local gun store, just in case he ever has to use it. Any time there is a weapon used in self-defense, the finger of blame is pointed at the shooter first and the shooter needs to be blameless in all aspects of the engagement. This is another topic in itself. [JWR Adds: That advice only applies in localities where there is mandatory registration for handguns. If it is legal to buy a gun from a private party without registration, then by all means avoid the paper trail!]

The most important thing he has to remember is once the trigger is pulled, you can’t ” take it back” . Ain’t no ‘do-overs’ when the primer gets slapped by the firing pin. Once he buys his weapon of choice, then he assumes responsibility for the use of the weapon.
Now, for the good stuff: If you have never used a firearm; take a course! [JWR Adds: I highly recommend Front Sight. I have witnessed how exceedingly patient and gentle they are with newbies. They turn even total incompetents into safe, well-trained, efficient shooters.] It is like driving a car. You just didn’t jump in one day and start driving down the expressway at the age of 16, or , if you did, you soon paid for the lack of training. Get trained to use the piece of gear. A firearm is simply another piece of gear that performs a specific task. – Bob in South Georgia.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Norman in England mentioned one consequence of the global credit collapse, as reported by The Financial Post: Grain shipments stalled in credit drought (“There’s all kinds of stuff stacked up on docks right now…”)

   o o o

Bill N. sent us the link to this “must see” video from a DEFCON hackers’ convention: No Tech Hacking

   o o o

James B. sent us this “signs of the times” news story: National Debt Clock runs out of digits. Speaking of digits, several times in the last six months, I’ve mentioned the Federal Reserve cartels’ web page where they post updates on aggregate bank borrowings. Last summer, IIRC, I called the “Nonborrowed” column numbers “alarming”. The latest figures are absolutely horrendous. (A hat tip to Tanker, for reminding me to check the Fed’s latest tally.)

   o o o

More economic gloom und doom from Cheryl: US government may take part ownership in banksGlobal auto market may “collapse” in 2009: J.D. PowerFinancial Crisis: Who is going to bail out the euro?Time Is Up Congress — And America (A sober prediction) Here are a couple of key quotes: “There is chatter circulating, apparently, that “global equity markets will be closed after the emergency G7 meeting this weekend.” and ” …the Indonesian market was just closed again this evening, after literally imploding – down by more than 10% – within an hour of starting to trade.” – Bernanke, Paulson Seek Global Help – Crisis Swamps USLIBOR Holds Central Banks Hostage As Credit FreezesFear Tops Greed – Market Woes Paralyze EconomiesLatin American Countries Tap Reserves To Save CurrencyComing Next: InflationPaulson Warns More Banks, Businesses Will FailBrit Banks Rated Less Solid Than Botswana’sStaring Into The Abyss (UK Economy)Third Iceland Bank FailsHome Safe Sales Soar, Trust in Banks Collapses (UK)China Lashes Out At US Monetary PolicyMetLife Tanks 26%, BofA Falls After Offering PricedDow Plunges 678, Below 9,000GM Shares Hit Lowest Level Since 1950Press Release: Joint Statement By Central BanksA Dozen Companies Which Should Layoff 10,000 Each This YearDow falls below 9,000 as stocks extend declines

   o o o

The latest from Nanny State Britannia: Gardener Ordered to Remove Barbed Wire Fence on Grounds It Could ‘Wound Thieves’. In my opinion England is a lost cause. It is time for prepared families there to Take the Gap!







Letter Re: Water Storage and Crash Course Advice

Jim,
First off let me say I continue to enjoy everything you post on SurvivalBlog. I believe that, given, recent events, my extended family is coming around and is wanting to finally start getting prepared (let us hope its not too late).

Second, in reference to the WaterBOB that someone cited recently: what preferred method of treatment do you recommend in storing the water in the mentioned device for long term?

Third, what ‘crash course’ advice can you offer for those who may be too little too late in getting prepared for WTSHTF? Or for those recently converted who want make it through the tough times ahead?

And lastly, I am sure myself and others will continue to look for your insight and input in the days ahead, as events unfold and the Schumer really does hit the fan.
Please expect a long and very overdue 10 Cent Challenge voluntary] soon. God Bless, – Zach

JWR Replies: The WaterBOB is not designed for long term use. But it is food grade, so if you find a used bathtub (perhaps through Craig’s List) and can store it someplace dark (like in a basement), then a WaterBOB in a bathtub should work fine. About 2 teaspoons of plain (unscented) Clorox bleach would be about the right amount to add for that amount of water. Inspect it once every six months (visually, and a sniff test). The water should store for several years.

I may be biased, but I recommend that you get a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. Coincidentally, for the first time in nearly a year, it will be offered at 1/3rd off, starting on Monday. The course is centered around the concept of stocking up for a family, by making well-planned trips to a “Big Box” store.



Letter Re: Cheap is Good, But Free is Better

Mr. Rawles,

I’ve noticed there have been several letters lately about getting prepped on a budget, and several people have suggested watching Craig’s List for good bargains. I’m surprised that no one has recommended Freecycle as a place to find good deals, because everything listed is free. I’m sure it’s been mentioned a few times in Survivalblog over the years, but I think it deserves as much emphasis as Craig’s List, if not more.
I think there may be some misconceptions about what is found on Freecycle. There can be a lot more than just old baby clothes and blenders. It will depend on your area of course.
In the past 6 months, I have gotten through Freecycle:
* Enough wood framed windows to build a good-sized greenhouse
* Several car loads of firewood (I don’t have a truck)
* About 150 – 200 canning jars in various sizes
* Spare blankets and linens
* A small plate steel wood stove
* Window screening
* Chicken wire, several rolls
* Rolls of woven wire fence, with T-posts
* Loads of scrap wood, good for burning or building tables or shelving
* Lengths of garden hose
* Sleeping bags
* Air mattresses
* Many rolls of carpet (for garden and indoor use)
And my treasure from yesterday (which prompted me to write this), a used 30-quart canner. An All-American model #930. It’s filthy but appears to be in good shape. To buy this new would be over $200, plus some serious shipping costs due to its weight.
I have seen every possible kind of furniture and appliance being given away, as well as garbage bags full of clothing.

My point here is to illustrated that many very useful things can be found on Freecycle, if you take the time to watch your local sites. It may not be a frequent find, but worth a minute or two each day to check. I rarely post any “wanted” items, I just sit and wait to see what is offered.
The main site is Freecycle.org, and you can find local groups from there. Each site is run by volunteers, and certain areas may have more groups than others. I am member to several, even though they do overlap a bit.
Rather than take up more space here, I would refer you to a short article I wrote about using Freecycle. It’s not written from a prepping perspective, but does explain the posting process.
I’m a single mom thankfully just moved to a 5-acre mini farm. I can’t afford anywhere near all the “stuff” that I need around here, and Freecycle has really given me the chance to pick up some great things I would otherwise not have been able to get my hands on… like my beautiful new canner. 🙂
I hope these ideas are helpful to someone. Keep up the good work with the blog site. Thanks, – Terri, in Canada



Odds ‘n Sods:

Finally, the much-anticipated Kel-Tec RFB bullpup .308 carbine will begin shipping in December! If I were to buy a bullpup, then the RFB Carbine would be it. Looking for a hedge against a future ban? I recommend that you buy a couple of these before the White House changes hands. If a new ban is enacted, they will likely triple in value.

   o o o

More economic news and commentary from Cheryl: Wall Street Fluctuates After Emergency Interest Rate CutIMF: World Economy Will Slow Sharply, Led By U.S. “Recession”Asian Stocks Fall AgainUS Economy Rapidly Sinking Into Economic DepressionFixing The US Housing Market And Housing PricesUS Stocks Retreat As Recession Concerns Outweigh Interest Rate Cuts; Alcoa Drops 52%Ford Will Triple Jobs Cut At Volvo, Slash 6,000 Jobs As Demand SlumpsBuffet’s Paper Profits On GE, Goldman Sachs Erased By Stock Market PlungeMetLife Profits Fall Prompts Stock SaleJapan Market Down 9.4%Banks In For Ugly QuarterCramer: When Do You Need Your MoneyThe Strongest Banks Out ThereWorld Markets Return To Selloff After Rate Cuts700 Auto Dealers Could FailWhere The Pros Are Putting Their CashMorgan Stanley Plunges; Mitsubishi May Pull Out Of DealLegg Mason DowngradedFidelity, Vanguard, T. Rowe Price Joining Treasury’s Guarantee Program For Money-Market FundsStocks Zigzag, End Lower After Emergency Rate CutPelosi Says $150 Billion Second Stimulus NeededCentral Banks All But Stop Lending Bullion (“Central banks have all but stopped lending gold to commercial and investment banks and other participants in the precious metals market, in a move that on Tuesday sent the cost of borrowing bullion for one-month to more than twenty times its usual level.”) — US Banking Losses Estimate $1.4 TrillionECB Sees “Crisis of Enormous Proportions” (“The European Central Bank has dramatically changed its tune over the last twenty-four hours as the credit freeze worsens, acknowledging for the first time that the world faces the gravest crisis since the Great Depression.”) — Asian Markets Plunge To New LowChina’s Billionaires Lose 1/3 Of Their WealthSevere Bull Market For GoldStock Market Crash: Where’s The Bottom?UK Taxpayers Stuck With $1 Trillion Bank BailoutGlobal Markets Dive Despite UK Bank “Rescue” PlanRun On Royal Bank Of Scotland Knocks 10 Billion Pounds Off Share Price

   o o o

Reader KBF sent this from The Los Angeles Times: Plunge in markets brings another kind of depression

   o o o

Philip N. mentioned a follow-up article from Glenn Beck: What’s Coming. As you can see, Glenn is just as concerned about hedge funds as I am.

   o o o

Reader H.E.T. e-mailed me to ask for a recommendation for an inexpensive source for infrared (IR) filters for flashlights such as a Surefires. I recommend Trading Expert, in Hong Kong. Yes, they are in Hong Kong, but in my experience they actually (and quite promptly) ship what they sell. OBTW, they also have inexpensive white LEDs that are useful in constructing low-current 12 VDC retreat lighting systems.





Note from JWR:

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $770. The auction for a large mixed lot that includes: A Special Mixed Vegetable Case-Six #10 Dehydrated Food Cans (Retail Price $105.95) This special Mixed Vegetable Case contains six #10 (96-ounce) cans–one can of each of the following: Mixed Vegetable Blend, Green Beans, Sweet Garden Peas, Mixed Peppers, Potato Dices, and Sweet Potatoes and a EZ-Towels 10 Pack Combo (10 bags of 50 towels. Retail value: $99.95). These items were donated by Jan at Healthy Harvest Foods. An assortment of world class loose leaf teas, and a box of Bellagio hot chocolate (25 individual packs), with a combined value of approximately $100. These items were courtesy of Charlie at CMEBrew.com. A NukAlert radiation detector (a $160 value), donated by at KI4U.com. And, a Katadyn VARIO water filter, donated by Ready Made Resources. (An $89 retail value.) The auction ends on Monday October 15, 2008. Just e-mail us your bid.



Like Something Out of a Novel–Some Predictions for 2009-to-2019

The economic headlines in the past couple of weeks have sounded like something out of a disaster novel that I once read wrote. The international financial and equities markets are spinning out of control, with seemingly wider and wider gyrations with each passing day. Since there are so many variables, the end result is difficult to firmly predict, but one thing is clear: It will be neither easy nor pleasant. My current prediction is that the governments of the English-speaking nations and Europe will co-conspire with the banksters to concoct the most grandiose Mother of All Bailouts (MOABs) yet. This will be even bigger than the MOAB that I predicted, early in 2008.

The multi-trillion dollar multinational MOAB will inject liquidity–in the form of magically-created Dollars, Pounds, and Euros–in such enormous quantities that it will calm the markets, at least for a while. But the by-product will be consumer price inflation that has never been witnessed in modern times except in the region north of the Limpopo river and south of the Zambezi river. In the long run, the fractional reserve banking and fiat currency regimes used today are doomed to failure. Both are lovely fictions that can only persist in expanding markets and when guided by the most altruistic managers. Any serious contraction of the underlying economy will inevitably bring both to a crashing halt. Perhaps, in the aftermath of te ongoing credit collapse, wiser heads will prevail, and private credit clearing circles will develop, instead of re-creating the same government-sanctioned fractional banking scheme that created the current crisis.

What Happened?

The last few years have been an anomaly. Led by Ben Bernanke and his predecessor “Easy Al” Greenspan, the Masters of the Universe that headed many of the central banks in the First World attempted to forestall a recession by artificially reducing interest rates, thereby creating bubbles in both real estate and equities valuations. All their meddling has made matters worse. They have formed mountains of debt that is classic malinvestment of the worst sort. This debt creation was like winding up an enormous clock spring. Debts were taken on by unworthy borrowers that never had a hope of repaying them, and then those same dodgy debts were re-packaged and re-sold to unwitting dupes–like pension funds in Denmark. This explains the umpteen foreclosed and abandoned tract homes that stretch from around the DC Beltway to the heartland of Ohio, to southern California. Inevitably all debt–whether good or bad–must be un-wound. And the more malinvestment there is, the uglier and protracted this unwinding process gets. Instead of a recession, we will probably witness the worst economic depression since the 1930s.

That is the big picture. Now for some predictions on the next 10 years with some possible implications for prepared families. Note: I don’t claim to be a prophet. These are just logical extrapolations of trends, based on previous swings of the macro scale market pendulum. So don’t gather up stones for the event that things don’t play out exactly as I predict:

Simultaneous Deflation, and Inflation
As I’ve previously posited, we are likely to see a wave of asset deflation at the same time that we have consumer price inflation. How is this possible? See the article that I posted back in February for an explanation. The bottom line is that leverage works both ways. The multiplier effect on fractional deposits works in reverse whenever bank deposits decrease.

Derivatives

I’ve been warning SurvivalBlog readers about derivatives, since late 2005. The multi-trillion dollar derivatives “casino” may soon be in crisis. Thursday Is D-Day: For Derivatives, as billions of dollars worth of contracts on defaulted Credit Default Swap (CDS) derivatives from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual (WaMu) are settled. On Thursday, we’ll find out what a CDS derivative contract is worth in the real world! Something tells me that these once-touted “assets” are going to suffer quite a haircut.

Bank Failures and Bank Runs .

As I’ve said before, more bank failures seem inevitable. There may also be more bank runs–most likely invisible ones, where banks get cleaned out by their creditors via margin calls by large depositors via wire transfers, and by small depositors via electronic banking. There may not be a a line of customers in front of the banks doors. If you wait for that as an indicator, then you will probably be too late. I’ve written this before, but it bears repeating: Be sure to check your bank or S&L’s safety rating at least once a week. If it drops below a “C” rating, then transfer your funds to a safer bank, ASAP. And, needless to say, never keep more than the FDIC limit in any one institution. Thankfully, the FDIC just raised the deposit insurance limits substantially, as did their counterparts in much of Europe.

Hedge Funds

I’ve discussed hedge funds at length in SurvivalBlog articles for more than a year. Suffice it to say, the risk with hedge funds is huge. I expect large quarterly waves of hedge fund redemptions–and redemption suspensions in the next few months.

Real Estate

The real estate market–both residential and commercial–will very likely continue to decline in the US for several years. The market will be flooded with more and more foreclosed properties, in a downward spiral. One downside to consider is that the thousands of abandoned houses will become nests for criminals.

In my estimation, the only thing that will stop te decline in nominal dollar figure declines will be the eventual mass inflation of the US Dollar. Hence, it will appear that real estate prices have “stabilized”, and then “turned around” in a couple of years. By in real terms (adjusted for inflation), the genuine bottom of the market probably won’t be for another five years. By that time, American homeowners will have lost an average of 60% of the “coulda-woulda” value of their homes. I expect he declines to continue as long as the credit drought persist, and until the massive glut of inventory is purchased. For the next few years it will be a buyer’s market, and cash will be king. Anyone sitting on cash will be able to buy up assets at ridiculously low prices–as the economic pendulum swings beyond the point of logical price neutrality. Sit tight, watch the listings closely, and buy at the bottom. You can find distressed properties–including some good rural survival retreat properties–at Foreclosures.com. If you plan to do some “bottom fishing”, a subscription to this service is money well spent.

Unemployment and Dislocation

Large corporate layoffs are a fact of life in any recession. Be ready for them, by minimizing your debts. A family food reserve is insurance for unemployment just as well as it is for natural disasters. If the recession turns into a depression, we can expect some huge layoffs. This will mean lots of families will be moving–either to seek work elsewhere or because they can no longer meet their monthly house payments. This however, might create some opportunities. Storage companies, estate auction firms, relocation services, rental property managers, home security companies, locksmiths, relocation specialists, and contractors that specialize in home renovation might all prosper. (After all, someone has to refurbish all those abandoned houses for the bankers.)

Stocks

It has been said that “a rising tide lifts all ships.” Sadly, the inverse is true, as well. I expect substantial further declines in stock prices. Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios might drop to as low as 7-to-1. (Where many manufacturing stocks have traditionally bottomed in major recessions.) In my estimation most of the current P/E ratios are still much too high for these troubled times. When I last checked (after the recent 800+ point two-day drop in the DJIA), I found the following P/Es quoted, in a quick, quasi-random sampling of big names that jumped out at me:

Amazon — 42.56-to-1
Apple Computer — 17.43-to-1
Caterpillar Inc. — 7.78-to-1
Coca-Cola — 19.95-to-1
eBay — 43.31-to-1
Google — 22.73-to-1
Lockheed Martin — 13.06-to-1
Microsoft — 12.44-to-1
QQQ (which is like buying the entire NASDAQ) — 19.79-to-1
Real Networks — 81.73-to-1
Unilever — 14.24-to-1
Xerox — 13.17-to-1

Do the math. It isn’t a pretty prospect, but many stock prices have a lot farther to fall. My advice is to sell on the market rallies, and buy tangibles with the proceeds.

Cars and Trucks

Again, like real estate, you’ll have the opportunity to buy at the bottom of the market, perhaps in five of six years. Have you ever wanted to own a classic car? This may be your chance, especially if it is a gas-guzzling big block classic car. I predict that in 2015 you’ll be able to buy a fully-restored late-1960s Muscle Car for perhaps 1/8th of its current price. (Well, in dollars adjusted for inflation, that is.) But of course to make that a practical tangible investment, you should instead get a classic military vehicle, such as a Dodge Power Wagon. (Or, for our european readers with a retreat in North Karelia, make that a Unimog DOKA.)

Cash Will Be King, and then Cash Will Be Trash

Once inflation starts to kick in, it will be absolutely essential for you to parlay all of your remaining dollar-denominated investments into durable and liquid tangibles. Do do before the dollar evaporates. If you haven’t done so already, now would be a good time to start.