Note from JWR:

The high bid in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $600. This auction is for a mixed lot that includes:

1.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

2.) A custom-made, fully-stocked EMS Medic Bag from Cajun Safety and Survival (a $212 retail value)

3.) A NukAlert radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value)

4.) A case (6 cans) of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 (96 ounce) cans donated by Ready Made Resources (a $160 value)

5.) An autographed copy of “Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse” ($24, retail)

See the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction page for complete details on these items. This auction ends on November 15th. Please e-mail us your bid.

Letter Re: Retreat Locale and Firearms Selection Questions from a Newbie Easterner

Jim,
I am a new reader of SurvivalBlog but I am already hooked. I realize that I am woefully unprepared to defend and care for my family if and when TSHTF. I live in New Jersey and commute to New York City every day, and work in finance. After 9/11, when I lost several dear friends, I took some steps to prepare for a short (several days to a week) disruption or an attack. I purchased a generator, several hundred MREs, bottled water, and iodine pills. I even applied for a firearm purchase permit but never bought a weapon.

Working in the capital markets, I have see firsthand over the last few month show how close we have come to a complete breakdown in the monetary and payments system. As a person who is generally a free market advocate and non-interventionist it troubles me deeply that the government has had to step in to try and salvage the banking system. However, I can say that in the days before some of these programs were announced, we were probably much closer than people think to a severe systemic financial collapse. I saw firsthand the panic and fear that prevailed on Wall Street in those few days, and it was real.

Hopefully we will be able to pull out of this current crisis. But in the spirit of preparing for the worst, I realize that I have much to do in order to get ready for TEOTWAWKI. So I do have a few questions that I hope you can answer. While I am sure some of these have been answered for previous newbies, I would greatly appreciate your opinion and advice.

What is your suggestion for a retreat location for someone living in New Jersey? I have read your “Recommended Retreat Areas” section and it looks like most of us east of the Mississippi are in some trouble. However, I am tied to my current location in terms of my employment and extended family. I am relatively blessed in terms of financial resources, so it is potentially feasible for me to purchase an out of state second home to use as a retreat. I do worry about access in a SHTF scenario. Highways potentially clogged, gas in short supply, etc. Is a 2-to-3 day drive by car or longer escape location feasible? There are relatively rural areas within 2-5 hours by car that we could choose, but none approach the remoteness most on this site seem to favor.

This also seems to be a common question but what about firearms? New Jersey is quite restrictive. The permit I got after 9/11 expired so I recently reapplied and should get my new permit in a couple months. I am not a complete neophyte but pretty close. I have hunted a few times with friends and have done some target practice at the pistol range. I know I need training. I also fear that the new administration may impose even more restrictive legislation limiting access to firearms so I want to move relatively quickly in assembling what I need. Here is what I am thinking:

handgun: there is no concealed carry in New Jersey so for home defense I am thinking something on the larger side, maybe a S&W Night Guard in .357 Magnum? Or does an autoloader with a higher capacity (maximum 15 round magazines in New Jersey) make sense? Maybe the SIG P220 in .45 ACP?

.22 rifle Suggestions? Id like something I can also teach my son on (he is 7) in a few years. What do you think of the US Survival .22LR? How big should I go? I don’t think I’m going to need something for very big game but who knows. Is a .308 sufficient or should I look for something heavier like a .338 Lapua or a .30-06? Should I also have a tactical rifle? Remember that New Jersey has a pretty broad definition of “assault rifles” that are banned.
Shotguns: Likely would like to have at least one “riotgun” type and at least one for hunting. Suggestions?

Ammunition: How much is enough?I have seen that Cabela’s sells reloaded/remanufactured rounds in bulk. Are these a good deal or are factory rounds superior to the point that the bulk reloads should not be considered?

Training: I am planning on taking several of the NRA courses that are available in my area for each of the weapons types I purchase. I have read the glowing reports on Front Sight and will try that as well if I can get the time. Any other suggestions?

I know I have a lot to learn in many areas such as food gathering/storage and basic survival. I have learned a lot from you already. I appreciate all you do on this blog, Jim. You provide a great service.
God Bless. – S. in New Jersey

JWR Replies: You are in a difficult locale, but I quite regularly get similar questions from consulting clients in Washington DC, Baltimore, and New York City.
I recommend that if you can afford it, that you buy a rural retreat, and stock it very well. If you prefer a warmer climate, then I recommend eastern Tennessee. If you don’t mind cold and snow, then consider the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Pre-position 90% of of your tools and logistics at your retreat. If you are worried about burglary, then rent a commercial storage space that is near your retreat.

As I’ve mentioned in blog many times, I recommend that you keep always enough gas in cans on hand for one trip “Outta Dodge”–to get you to your retreat. (This ties in with the need to pre-position nearly everything at your retreat.)

In answer to your question on handguns: In New Jersey, your best bet is probably either a Springfield Armory XD in .45 ACP or perhaps a Glock Model 21 ( also .45 ACP.) BTW, you should take advantage of Front Sight’s Gun & Gear & Training offer–that includes essentially free XD pistol. BTW, low cost firearms training is also available from the RWVA in the east and the WRSA in the west.

In answer to your other questions:

>.22 rifle Suggestions? I’d like something I can also teach my son on (he is 7) in a few years. What do you think of the US Survival .22LR?

The US Survival .22 LR–like all of it predecessors including the original Armalite AR-7–has a tendency to jam. It also has a fairly rudimentary peep sight that in my opinion has an overly-large rear aperture. I recommend that you instead buy a Rogue Rifle Company Chipmunk .22 single shot rifle for your son. Depending on his maturity, you can probably start training him with it under very close supervision at age 7. (The Chipmunk is a tiny rifle. It is made to the minimum dimensions allowable under Federal law.) For the rest of the family, buy a stainless steel All-Weather Ruger 10/22. Once your son is about 10 years old, you can buy a spare stock for the Ruger and saw off about two inches from the butt to provide a shorter length of pull, for transitional training. Slightly used “takeoff” standard birch wood stocks are readily available for under $15 each, since Ruger .22 rifles are often used as gun rebuild platforms, typically using fancy laminate target stocks.

> How big should I go?…

The .308 Winchester will suffice for everything two-legged or four-legged in North America with the exception of grizzly bears and moose.

> Should I also have a tactical rifle?…

Keep an inexpensive .308 bolt action in New Jersey and .308 battle rifle (as well all your magazines over 15 round capacity) in a wall cache at your retreat in a free state. As previously noted in SurvivalBlog I generally recommend the FAL, L1A1, HK91, AR-10 or M1A. And, FWIW, up until a week ago, I would have also recommended waiting for the about-to-be-released Kel-Tec RFB .308 or the Rock River Arms (RRA) LAR-8 .308 Caliber, in Mid-Length. However, in today’s market, beggars can’t be choosers. Buy whatever .308 battle rifle you can find, but be sure to line up at least eight spare magazines first. (You don’t want to be stick with a rifle with one magazine!)

> Shotguns: Likely would like to have at least one “riotgun” type and at least one for hunting. Suggestions?

Buy a Remington 870 Express 12 gauge Combo set. (These come with both a bird barrel and riotgun barrel. It takes less than two minutes to switch barrels. BTW, Mossberg also produces a quite similar “Combo” set, that is very reasonably priced. The only drawback is that the Mossberg 500 Combo’s bright blued steel is more prone to rust than the phosphate finish on the Remington Express models.

> Ammunition: How much is enough?

“Enough” is a subjective term, depending on the depth and duration of the situation that you anticipate, how much bartering you plan to do, and how much trouble you expect to encounter. (In an urban or suburban area, you might have to fire hundreds of warning shots to repel looters. But here at the ranch, we are in the process of filling at least five deer and elk tags this season, but we’ll likely fire less than 10 cartridges.) If anything, err on the side of larger quantities. Any ammo that excess to your needs will be worth its weight in gold for barter and charity.

>…I have seen that Cabela’s sells reloaded/remanufactured rounds in bulk. Are these a good deal or are factory rounds superior to the point that the bulk reloads should not be considered?

Bulk reloads are fine for target shooting but only can be depended on for self defense shooting situations if they come from a reputable maker, such as Black Hills Ammunition.

Letter Re: HF/VHF/UHF Amateur Radio for Preppers

James,
First, thanks for all that you do for the preparedness community. I have been a reader since [the early 1990s] when you had the early draft of your novel available for free download. I did send in my the $5 in shareware you asked for I believed it to be excellent fiction.

Second, I want to write you concerning an aspect of preparedness which is often overlooked. I know that in the last few months I have seen more posts on your blog and am grateful. I want to talk about communications equipment.

As has been previously noted there are really two major types of communication which are readily available to civilians. Naturally, I am speaking of the ham bands which consist of the VHF/UHF and HF spectrums. In reality the modern radio is mostly a computer or computer driven (hence the need to have a spare protected in a Faraday Cage).

It would behoove anyone [in the US] who is prepping to first get your Technician ham license. Any number of internet sites have the exact question pool which you will be quizzed from. You can prepare one of two ways – buy a book on the fundamentals of radio communication or simply go to a web site such as QRZ.com and work through the question pools. Currently, there is no code to learn as there once was – therefore you will not be tested on Morse Code. However, I would recommend that as soon as possible that one begin to become fluent with CW (Continuous Wave, i.e. Morse Code). At times the nature of the HF bands are such that people can communicate with one another using CW and not via voice.

Once you have your Technician license you will want to either get involved in an amateur radio club or begin to monitor the VHF/UHF bands. The VHF/UHF band covers 50, 144, 220, and 440 MHz (6, 2, 1 1?4, meters as well as 70cm respectively). Most often the easiest way to monitor the VHF/UHF is through a handheld unit. I have had a number of different models but for my retreat we use the Yaesu VX 7R. This model is built to mil spec standard – waterproof and shockproof – as well as easy to operate. It is about the size of a small paperback and has the longer lasting lithium-ion batteries. It is presently selling for around $270.

The VHF/UHF bands are limited to line of sight communications and for long range communications in these bands you need the services of a local radio repeater. I will not go into the technical aspects of a repeater here suffice to say that it boosts your signal strength and resends you signal to others monitoring the same frequency. I often work a repeater some forty miles from my house – but I sit atop a hill.

The HF frequencies are truly worldwide communications. You can with little equipment work stations as far away as the South Pacific on good days. However, to open these frequencies up you need to have either your General or Extra license. The next step is to get your General and then lastly your Extra license. With each further step you gain more band privileges – the Extra basically being an unlimited ticket to ham radio communications.

HF transceivers can be expensive but don’t necessarily have to be. I have two different types of HF radios currently in my ham shack – modern radios (Yaesu 857D (HF/VHF/UHF radio), ICOM 718 (HF + 6m), and an old tube rig (Yaesu FT 101E). The HF frequencies covers 160, 80, 60, 40, 30, 20, 17, 15, 12, and 10 meters. Presently with the [pitiful] shape of the sunspot cycle only from about 20 – 10 meters is active depending on where you are and the time you are monitoring.

Space and time preclude an in-depth examination of HF transmitting – I would recommend a good beginner’s book such as the ARRL Amateur Handbook for Radio Communications. This work will give you more information than you really want to know about HF communications. It is truly fascinating to listen to different stations on the HF bands. You get to such a worldwide spectrum which is largely absent from the VHF/UHF side of the hobby.

Lastly, with the HF radios you will have to have a quality antenna. “Quality” does not necessarily mean expensive. I have a G5RV Jr. antenna which is hooked up to my ICOM 718 and I have picked up stations all over the world. This particular antenna cost me a whopping $38 less than a year ago. A word of caution – antennas have to be tuned to each specific frequency which you want to listen or transmit on. Some HF radios have built in tuners while others you must buy an add – on tuner. (Essentially you are really tuning the antenna to match the band frequency which you wish to transmit). Antennas can cost as little as my G5RV to thousands of dollars for tall towers. If you are wanting to keep a low profile I would suggest erecting a dipole cut to the specific frequency length which you wish to transmit on.

Much more could be said – however, IMHO your communications will be much more operational with ham equipment than with CBs or the like.
With Kind Regards – Dr. Joe

Letter Re: Some Changes in American Wholesale Food Distribution

Hi James
You’ll recall hat I wrote to you a while back, forewarning of increasing prices for canned tuna, as I am in the import food business.
I read Buckskin’s message with interest, as I sell to food distributors, of the type that he is referring to. What many of your readers may or may not know, is that a huge amount of our food
products are imported. I don’t have exact figures on it, but there are certain categories of food products that are almost exclusively imported, as they either cannot be produced here at all or cannot be competitively produced here. An example, is organic canned beans. While they are packed in the U.S., most of the organic beans are actually grown in China, Peru and other countries. You would never know this when buying a can of beans that is packed by an American company. Another good example is frozen vegetables. There are companies here that import frozen vegetables from other countries, then mix them in blends and sell them. They don’t necessarily say on the package that the vegetables are imported because they are further-processed here in the U.S. In addition, many of the ingredients for foods produced domestically are from imported sources. Chinese milk powder is used extensively by American food producers.

My main point is that, while I am in a different part of the distribution chain than Buckskin is referring to, I do sell a lot of imported products that go to food service (restaurants, prisons, hospitals, fast food, etc.). What I have been observing over the last couple of months is that as demand slackens in the U.S., prices have been going down. The U.S. is one of the largest food consumers in the world and as a result of the economic implosion, people are eating out less and while they are cooking at home more, they are trading down at the supermarket. Chains like Whole Foods are suffering as a result of this, as well as the larger supermarket chains.

Earlier in the year, a lot of my suppliers overseas started increasing prices because of increased raw material costs, increased tinplate costs, increased fuel and energy costs, etc., coupled with increased freight costs to the U.S. However, as demand started waning here, my customers refused to accept the price increases, as their sales volume has dropped off and in many cases, their inventory started backing up. Now, prices are going down. Canned tuna, for example, has dropped about 20% and will probably drop further. This is certainly not happening to all products that we sell, but I expect to see more price declines in the future. Another reason for this is that raw commodity prices have collapsed and this has had an impact, too. Oil is way down and this has reduced transportation costs. One more factor is the recent strengthening of the dollar against most other currencies, which means that a dollar buys more overseas than it did earlier in the year.

Although I expect this decline to continue for some time, it may or may not have a big impact on food prices in the U.S. This depends on whether or not the price decreases are passed
along down the distribution chain.

One thing to keep in mind is that in the long term, the dollar is toast. When all of the bail-out money and other giveaways that the government has printed money for, hit the economy,
the dollar is going down and all imported products are going to get a lot more expensive. All the best, – Kurt

Odds ‘n Sods:

Abraham”s new blog on suburban survival looks like it is off to a great start. His most recent post selecting “Get Home Bag” contents was excellent. (A hat tip to the gents over at Total Survivalist Libertarian Rantfest (TSLRF), for the link to Abraham’s blog)

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Our friend Commander Zero up in Montana recently had a very well-reasoned post on handgun proficiency that quotes my mentor, Mel Tappan: Standard Controllability Test

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Bob at Ready Made Resources mentioned that after some record sales, they are now down to just 30 of the used water-tight Hardigg gun caching cases left on-hand. These have been selling very quickly since the election. (There is little wonder why! One customer called them “my Obama Gun Grab Insurance” ) Bob also reminded me that their 25% off sale on Mountain House and AlpenAire freeze-dried foods ends in just four days. Don’t miss out!

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News and commentary, courtesy of The Economatrix: Watch Out For Gift Cards this Holiday Season — The Banks Don’t Just Get It, They Are Lucky to Be Alive — Wall Street Turns To Consumer To Gauge Economy — GM’s Beleaguered Shares Could Go Lower — Central Bankers Fear Deflation — Economic Downturn Marches Toward Main Street — Berkshire Hathaway Profits Fall 77%

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There are several new retreat properties listed at our spin-off web site, SurvivalRealty.com. One of these listings is for parcels that are being broken up from the old Rawles Ranch, near Stites, Idaho. Disclaimer: I no longer own that ranch, but I will indirectly benefit, since any parcels that sell will pay off the remaining mortgage note that I hold.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“God forbid we should ever be twenty years without such a rebellion. The people cannot be all, and always, well informed. The part which is wrong will be discontented, in proportion to the importance of the facts they misconceive. If they remain quiet under such misconceptions, it is lethargy, the forerunner of death to the public liberty. … And what country can preserve its liberties, if it’s rulers are not warned from time to time, that this people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to the facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time, with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure.” – Thomas Jefferson

Letter Re: Deflation Followed by Mass Inflation?

Dear Jim
I agree with Michael that deleveraging, the reduction in credit, means falling price levels in the short run – but not for 4 or 5 years!
He wrote: “Credit can be destroyed. If the value of your house goes down by $100,000, then that $100,000 is just gone. It doesn’t exist any more. It is not in the money supply. This is deflationary”
Back to basic definitions – inflation is an increase in the money supply, deflation is a decrease in the money supply. Generally inflation leads to rising prices, and deflation to falling prices. The price of houses is the symptom of deflation, but does not affect the money supply.
“Now there is dwindling credit, severe unwillingness to lend, and a Fed that is contracting the ‘money’ supply.”
Whoa there! Check the latest M1 money supply chart which shows a ~45% increase in just two months! This is an exponential “hockey stick” chart that Al Gore did not need to fudge the data on!

Bernanke and the Fed were keeping inflation low, 2% or less, (trying to clean up Greenspan‘s irresponsible inflations). But now the massive bailouts have blown that plan out of the water. Thanks to Gary North to help us to “follow the money”.

Unless this horrific, banana-republic-style inflation of the money supply is corrected, inflation of prices will be back with a vengeance. Remember that in the Great Depression the money supply was anchored to gold – not a good comparison to today’s fiat money that can be created at will.

Of course the timing will be tough to predict as the velocity of money determines prices, as well as just the supply of money. (I.e., how fast is money spent – 10 times per year or 100). And Fed decisions are political and psychological in nature, not just economic, and hence not easy to predict. But overall, in the race between the deflationary effects of deleveraging, and the unlimited ability of the Fed to succumb to political pressure and inflate, I’m betting on Ben Bernanke‘s helicopters. Regards, – OSOM

Five Letters Re: Full Capacity Magazine Price Increases are Already Here

Sir,

Be advised, Cabela’s here in Fort Worth, Texas is sold out on all ammo except 22 LR and shotgun shells. A friend who went there today was amazed to find all ammo shelves emptied. The last time I went there (shortly before the election) the place was a mad house. Standing room only, many people turned down on their background checks (or delayed). I considered myself lucky to get in and out of there in an hour. I got my new toy, no problem and plenty of ammo “at sale price”. Cheaper Than Dirt’s prices have doubled or tripled. They will not honor their printed catalog prices and I consider them as garbage now. They have lost my business.

Thanks for your outstanding book. I am a Viet Nam veteran and have gained additional insight in what is to come and preparations to make. I lent my original copy to some younger Marines and it is still making the rounds. I bought two additional copies later. I check your site almost daily as do most of my friends who have awakened. Keep up the good work and God Bless you Sir! – Robert A.

 

Jim:
Reader David B. may boycott Cheaper Than Dirt for raising prices on full capacity magazines. But he has little understanding of basic economics. CTD would be stupid not to charge what the market will bear. Thanks for your great blog. I check it every day. – Ira W

Jim,
For many months, I have been imploring family and close friends to get prepared by stocking up on items likely to be banned under and Obama Administration. Folks like Diane Feinstein will be energized and empowered under an Obama Administration to do what they tried to do but couldn’t with the 1994 Assault Weapons Ban.
The chickens have come home to roost and as you pointed out in your recent post (11/7), supplies of ammo and magazines are drying up fast. I purchased a few “top-off” items late last week and even today. But what I’m seeing from some of the traditional suppliers is truly frightening. For example:

AIM Surplus – 10-to-14 business days for them to process orders received today. Who knows what will be left by the time they get around to the newest received orders.
Natchez Shooters Supplies – Rationing Glock full/high capacity mags.
Several local friends have told me of long lines at traditional brick and mortar stores that sell these items.

In order to help out fellow SurvivalBlog readers, may I suggest they and their friends look at alternative source suppliers? For example, there is a goodly supply of ammo being sold on forums such as AR15.com, GlockTalk.com and similar forums. Find a nearby seller that has what you want and buy it. Similarly, online suppliers like LA Police Gear, 44Mag.com and OMB’s Express Police Supply are excellent and dependable sources. I bought 10 Glock M18 33 round.mags for under $27 each delivered from OMB today. That won’t last long! On AR15.com, there are a number of reliable suppliers advertising in the Ammunition forum. For past experience, I have found G2GTactical.com to be a fast, reliable supplier with reasonable prices.

I could go on but you get the idea and I hope your readers will to. The clock is ticking and some folks are way behind the power curve.
All the best! – Jay in Florida

 

James–

My gun show report for today is as follows.
As a friend and I pulled onto Highway 2 from 9 heading to the Monroe [, Washington] fairgrounds we hit a terrible traffic stoppage. It took 35 minutes to travel the last six miles. Every east bound car was pulling into the fairgrounds–all of them. We get there and my friend who is not a club member has to wait to pay to get in the gun show. It was a 45 minute wait line to get in. The membership enrollment section was bang up packed.

I fought my way to the ammo department for X’s AK ammo. It was all gone except for some soft point. I called him to see if he wanted some and when I went in to get it.But it had already sold. When I left the show, all battle rifle ammo was gone. It sold out in one hour.

I did not see many sporting rifles for sale for the first time in a long time.[ The dealers brought] nearly all battle rifles and semi-auto assault style rifles.

Magazine prices have already climbed by about 7 bucks per magazine with the average price now around 25 bucks. They were $13.50 each in June of this year.

There was a general air of urgency. You could feel it and it was hard to resist. It was soon evident that all the important stuff was going to be off the shelves and into closets around the county. I suspect it will be more then a month before factories can make up what has been sold around the nation in the last few days.

Even though magazines and ammunition was off the shelves and at inflated prices the rifles themselves. They were not marked up at all. I was happy to see that..

My friend C. bought an original late 1700s flintlock from middle eastern origin. Looked like it was on a camel’s back many times… It had an integral folding bayonet the length of a short sword. I told him the ATF would be grinding that bayonet off next year because it makes the old musket an assault rifle and the weird curving stock could be mistaken as a pistol grip –another evil feature that will call for men in black coming in the windows and doors next winter. He looked a bit like he was having a stroke and I remembered I should not speak to men in there 80s in so a casual and dry mouthed way. Think so? he asked.
I said let’s hope I really am joking and he sincerely agreed. So did the 20 guys who stopped to listen to the quick exchange and admiration of the ancient piece of machinery.

It was still a good day even though I bought almost nothing because everything I wanted was gone.

I found only two AK magazines made from steel, in acres of guns. I saw plenty of plastic mags but X. did not want any of those for his AK.

All the PMAGs in the world must be sold out now…. If it said “Magpul”, then it was soon sold.

Got some good books from the Militia Of Montana (MOM) table

All in al, this served as a first hand look at what is being reported on the news every night. Every round of battle ammo is now gone. Thanks Mr. Obama:. Look what you made us do! Think of the money being made. Let’s all hope our new supreme leader is busy messing with nationalizing the auto industry rather then dreaming of ways to pave streets with our liberty. – KT

Hi Jim,
While I completely agree that one should stock-up on full capacity magazines, I don’t think you should read too much into the “Cheaper Than Dirt” (CTD) prices. The company is just poorly/inaccurately named. It may simply be a coincidence, but MidwayUSA has many magazines on sale now.
Here are Midway’s prices for the items you listed:
Glock Model 20, 21, & 22 full capacity factory magazines: $23.99

Glock 33 rd. 9mm magazines: $34.99

I went directly to the Beta CMAG web site and found the Mini-14 drum for for less than CTD’s price–$260 directly from the manufacturer.
Deals can still be had if folks search around and act quickly. Regards, – James S.

 

JWR Replies: There are still a few bargains out there, but supplies are obviously getting spotty. The folks at CDNN mentioned that they have sold out of all of their Springfield XD magazines, with the exception of the .40 S&W magazines. Adam at HKparts.net said that they now have 200+ orders pending, yet they still have good quantities of HK USP pistol magazines on hand. I heard that .44Mag.com has had a huge volume of sales, yet they have not yet noticeably increased their prices. (But I did note they now have their CMI M14 magazines and all of their Saiga magazines on back-order.) Supplies are definitely drying up! I hope that people took my advice back October, 2007: The Falling Dollar–Sheltering Your Assets in Steel and Alloy Tangibles. In today’s world, any top quality full capacity magazines are a fine investment.

Odds ‘n Sods:

A correction to yesterday’s post: There were actually two bank failures announced by the FDIC on Friday. Here a link to the announcement of the second one.

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Lead bullets under fire

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Lee C. sent this: On Concerns Over Gun Control, Gun Sales Are Up

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The latest reading selections from Cheryl, our Economista: Automakers Struggle to Survive Past Mistakes — GM Could Be Bankrupt in a Matter of Months — China May See Severe Economic Slowdown — Latvia takes over 2nd largest bank as crisis hits — US Jobs in Full Recession Mode — Shoppers See Prices Slashed Up To 70% — Corporate Bankruptcies Rising Fast — Sheep Rustling Soars as Economy Fails

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“For a quarter century, those who recalled Charles Mackay’s [non-fiction book] Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds and its many successors, and pointed out that uncontrolled speculation always ends the same dismal way, were told that they ought to shut up until they learned something about economics. Sober warnings from distinguished scholars were drowned out by a chorus of cheerleading, while less prestigious voices were pushed out to the fringes of the blogosphere. What is now painfully clear is that those marginalized voices were right all along, and their warnings could have spared us a massive economic disaster if the pundits and politicians who dismissed them had listened instead.” – John Michael Greer

Notes from JWR:

We are pleased to welcome four new advertisers: Mara Helland & Co., P.C., PreparednessChristmasGifts.com, Carter Cutlery, and Milk on the Moove: Here are brief introductions:

Mara Helland & Co., P.C. – Mara is a CPA that specializes in discreet accounting and tax services for clients throughout the US and for Americans ex-pats abroad. She works from her home in western Montana.

PreparednessChristmasGifts.com – Offering a wide range of preparedness products.

Carter Cutlery – Murray Cater is an Oregon-based master blade maker, who had 18 years of training in Japan. His knives are both eminently practical and pieces of art.

Milk on the Moove. Makers of retort packaged (shelf stable) milk products that are ideal for supplementing food storage programs. And yes, I checked: All of their products are made in Logan, Utah. All of the milk comes from local farmers, and is free of hormones such as BST. Nothing they sell comes from China!

Be sure to take a look at the web sites for each of our advertisers. By giving them your business first, you’ll help support SurvivalBlog!And of course if you do place an order, then please mention where you saw their ad.

Letter Re: A Suggested Checklist for Preparedness Newbies

Here’s a beginner’s list I made for my [elderly] father today:

Food
{Brown pearl] rice does not store well. Neither does cooking oil so that needs to be fresh. No, Crisco doesn’t count.
Coconut oil would be your best bet.
Wheat berries – 400 pounds – bulk order at your local health food store
Beans – 400 pounds – bulk order at your local health food store
Mylar bags
Spices
Salt
Country Living grain mill
propane tanks, small stove and hoses to connect
freeze dried fruits, vegetables, eggs and meat if you can find them.
Water
500 gallons of water [storage capacity. Rainwater catchment is a common practice in Hawaii]
Water filter

Cooking
Cast Iron Cookware

Firearms
FN PS 90

10 PS 90 magazines

5.7 handgun

10 FN 5.7 handgun magazines

5.7 ammo

Training: Front Sight four day defensive handgun course. (Note: eBay sometimes has course certificates for $100!)

Body armor: Nick at BulletProofME.com

Medical
Personal medications
Augmentin antibiotic
Up to date dental work
Painkillers
Bandages
Iodine
Anti-fungal spray

Finances
$10,000 cash in small bills
100 one-ounce silver coins (GoldDealer.com or Tulving.com)

Transport
Gasoline in 5 gallon cans or better yet, this.
Gas stabilizer
Mountain bikes
Air pump

Miscellany
Flashlights
Rechargeable Batteries
Battery charger
Hand held walkie talkies
Topographical map of your area
Spare eyeglasses
Shortwave radio
Home generated power
12 volt battery system
Good backpack
Good knife
Good compass
Good shoes
Bar soap
Toothbrushes
Dental floss
Toilet paper
Fishing kit
Salt licks
Connibear traps

Regards, – SF in Hawaii

JWR Adds: The following is based on the assumption that SF’s father also lives in Hawaii: Because of the 10 round magazine limit for handguns, I recommend that Hawaiians purchase only large bore handguns for self defense–such as .45 ACP. Both the Springfield Armory XD .45 Compact or the Glock Model 30 would both be good choices. The “high capacity” advantage of smaller caliber handguns is not available to civilians in Hawaii, so you might as well get a more potent man stopper, given the arbitrary 10 round limitation.

Letter Re: Deflation Possibly Followed by Mass Inflation?

Jim,
I believe that we are in for deflation, not inflation. A simple error that most people make when considering this topic is language related: When discussing actions of the Fed they talk about ‘printing’ money. Well, the Fed (actually the Treasury) hardly ‘prints’ any money at all. In Zimbabwe they print money. Lots of money with lots of zeroes. Here, they just increase the number of zeroes in a computer. The difference is profound. When there is a lot of currency floating around then people use it to buy stuff. More currency with higher values means more currency chasing the same amount of goods and that means inflation. The currency does not go away. If fewer goods are on the market, the same amount of currency is there chasing it and prices go up. The currency doesn’t get destroyed.

In the US the amount of credit used is orders of magnitude more than the amount of currency in circulation. Credit can be destroyed. If the value of your house goes down by $100.000, that $100,000 is just gone. It doesn’t exist any more. It is not in the money supply. This is deflationary. Further, if the bank repossesses your house and then sells it to someone else, the difference in sale price has an effect on the banks ability to lend. If they lose $100,000 on your house then they have effectively lost the ability to lend $1 Million because of the fractional reserve system. That $1 Million is not in the money supply any longer. That is deflation. And, of course, the amount of money that will vanish in exactly the same way as part of the derivative mess is orders of magnitude larger than the amount to be lost due to housing.

As can be seen by looking at virtually anything in the last few years (gas, oil, corn, gold, wheat, houses, cars, the Dow, etc.), prices for everything have gone up while there was credit in the system and banks wanted to lend. Now there is dwindling credit, severe unwillingness to lend, and a Fed that is contracting the ‘money’ supply. Value/dollars/money is vanishing at an unprecedented rate. Prices on everything are coming down hard. This is deflation. Your dollars are becoming more valuable, not less. Hold on to cash.

I know this is counterintuitive, and I am an abject Austrian regarding economics. But, the majority of people (including many Austrians) are fooled by the difference between an expansion of cash and an expansion of credit. Weimar Germany, Argentina, Mexico, Zimbabwe – these places all created lots of currency and had rampant inflation. We cannot use that as a model. In the Great Depression we had deflation because the Fed contracted the money supply. This is well documented, as are the effects. This is the model we need to use now. The effects this time around will be much worse, they have the same genesis and the same result. People will need/want/hoard cash.

Now, once we are near the bottom of a deflationary cycle (I predict 4-to-5 years from now), who knows what the government will do? At that time they may crank up the printing presses because everyone will want dollars and no one will trust the banks. Then all bets are off. Then we could have inflation. But for now, your dollars are getting more valuable not less. Get what you need in order to get through hard times, but, short of a societal collapse a la your novel [“Patriots“].Some FRNs in a fireproof box in your gun safe (and not in some bank that may fail) are your best bet. – Michael W.

Odds ‘n Sods:

“Nines” sent us this: Another Friday, Another Bank Collapse.

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You probably saw this announcement last month: Bush Calls Economic Summit for November 15. This could portend a new financial order announcement by the G20, either at this meeting or at their next one, early in 2009. I suspect that the US Dollar will lose its primacy as a reserve currency. As the Chartist Gnome told me “this will likely go far beyond ‘a new Bretton Woods.'” A country with these numbers, and these numbers, and these numbers, and these numbers cannot negotiate from a position of strength. The handwriting is on the wall for the US Dollar. Get out of your US Dollar-denominated investments, ASAP! Invest instead in tangibles.

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Tom, who operates CampingSurvival.com mentioned his new educational site: Urban Survival Stories. It looks interesting.

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Bob sent us this article: Dems Target Private Retirement Accounts: Democratic leaders in the U.S. House discuss confiscating 401(k)s, IRAs

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More news and commentary from our Economatrix: Running On Fumes: GM Could Run Out Of Cash — Jobless Rate Bolts to 14-Year High — Main Street Sucked into GMAC Junk Bonds — Financial Meltdown Worse to Come — Across Economy, the News Just Gets Worse — How to Survive the Coming US Dollar Collapse — First Full-Year Slump Since 1940s, Says IMF — Ford Posts $129 Million Loss; Will Cut More Jobs — Cash or Gold? — Just Three ‘Superbanks’ Now Dominate Industry

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

‘If we find our government in all its branches rushing headlong… into the arms of monarchy, if we find them violating our dearest rights, the trial by jury, the freedom of the press, the freedom of opinion, civil or religious, or opening on our peace of mind or personal safety the sluices of terrorism, if we see them raising standing armies, when the absence of all other danger points to these as the sole objects on which they are to be employed, then indeed let us withdraw and call the nation to its tents. But while our functionaries are wise, and honest, and vigilant, let us move compactly under their guidance, and we have nothing to fear. Things may here and there go a little wrong. It is not in their power to prevent it. But all will be right in the end, though not perhaps by the shortest means.” – Thomas Jefferson, Letter to William Duane, 1811. ME 13:29