Economics and Investing:

Susan Z. recommended this piece by Bob Chapman: And All the Kings’ Horses and All the King’s Men…

GG mentioned Mish Shedlock’s latest piece: Weekly Unemployment Claims Portend Disaster

Also from GG: Federal tax revenues plummeting. I can foresee the reinstitution of pre-Kennedy-era marginal tax rates (more than 50%) in the next few years. This is just one more good reason to invest in tangibles. They’ll heavily tax interest income, but you don’t pay taxes on tangibles until you sell them.

Several items from frequent content contributor Karen H.:

Cathay Pacific to Park Six Passenger Planes After 27% Sales Slump ““We still cannot see any signs of any pickup in business,” Chairman Christopher Pratt told reporters in Hong Kong today.

Adidas Q2 Net Profit Falls 93 Percent

P&G Fourth-Quarter Profit Declines as Consumers Curb Spending

ADP Says U.S. Companies Decrease Payrolls by 371,000 “The estimated 371,000 drop, higher than economists forecast, followed a revised 463,000 drop the prior month, figures from ADP Employer Services showed today.”

Farmland Falls for First Time Since 1987 “Farmland prices in the U.S., which advanced for 21 years, couldn’t escape the worst plunge in real estate since the Great Depression.”

Items from The Economatrix:

Investors Nudge Rally Forward with Small Gains

Mortgage Aid Program Helping Fraction of Borrowers

Florida-based Mortgage Company Suspended A prominent U.S. mortgage company is being investigated by the Housing and Urban Development Department after allegedly failing to submit a required financial report, raising concerns of fraud. The Federal Housing Administration on Tuesday suspended Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp. from originating new FHA-insured mortgages, HUD said in a news release.

The Ultimate Suckers Rally: Record-breaking 50% Stock Market Rally in 5 Months; Extreme Market Volatility Occurs in Deep Economic Recessions and Depressions

Good-bye Dollar, Hello Gold

Fed to Strengthen Bank Examination with Expert Teams

American Incomes Head Down, Threatening Recovery in Spending

Banking Bonuses is Bubble Yet to Burst
“Even after receiving billions in government money to rescue the industry, whose bonus culture has been nailed as one of the causes of the crisis of 2008, the bankers have slipped right back into their old ways. And yet the one lesson we can draw from the last year is that all bubbles burst eventually. The bonus juggernaut is staying afloat on a wave of cheap money and taxpayer support. That will be withdrawn one day, and the fallout will be huge.”

Sotheby’s Sees Bottom for Art Market After Quarterly Profit Declines 87%



Odds ‘n Sods:

10 Things You Need to Know to Live on the Streets

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From Cheryl: Russian Subs Patrolling Off East Coast

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Outcry Causes Obama Administration To Change Language on Cash for Clunkers Website

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Hawaiian K. mentioned a piece by Jack Spirko, posted over at LRC: Modern Survivalism Tenet Number Five; Food stored is an exceptional investment. You simply can’t lose by storing additional food that you use on a regular basis



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Naturally the advance planning that we did on this thing belongs on the credit side of the ledger. So also does the venture into night flying, although in the final analysis the only real effect it had on this operation was to hold us in the area for one more night. Had we found the U-505 at night, there would have been no possibility of capture—that boarding idea was improbable enough in broad daylight, it was impossible at night.

This whole operation is an example of the fact that a military commander controls events only up to a certain point. He can anticipate certain things, perhaps even set the stage for them to happen, and can be ready to cash in on them if they do happen. But whether they will happen or not depends on many things over which he has no control. One is what goes on in the other commander’s mind and another is what goes on in his own. Both of these mental processes are subject to influence from above, or by Divine sufferance, from below. I am not trying to say that we have no control over our destiny on this earth. But I do say that in many things we control it only up to a certain point. Beyond that point nebulous things which occur inside men’s brains decide the issue. In this particular instance, I speak from firsthand experience when I say the stuff that ran through my mind for a week or so was all wrong, but the final result was very good….

The only moral I can see to all this is to plan your operations carefully, get the best advice you can from experts, fix it so that if certain things happen, you will not be caught flat-footed, and then, rely on the motto we have stamped on all our pennies—’In God We Trust.’” – From Twenty Million Tons Under the Sea, by Rear Admiral Daniel V Gallery . In June of 1944, Gallery’s Naval Task Group Task Group 22.3 boarded and captured the German submarine U-505, the first capture of an enemy man-of-war at sea since 1915, taken as a Prize of War and still on public display, at the Museum of Science and Industry in Chicago.



Notes from JWR:

I just heard that JRM, the author of the recent article “A Prepper Husband and a Stubborn Wife,” has been tapped for a special “Publisher’s Award” by Jake Stafford, the Publisher at Arbogast Publishing. JRM will receive a complimentary copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. Congrats!

Today we present another entry for Round 24 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) and C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $345 value)

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 24 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Incubating and Hatching Eggs for Self Reliance, by Jason C.

I recently decided to try to add to my skill set by doing something I had not tried before. Raising birds from eggs. I have included raising animals as part of my long term survival plan for TEOTWAWKI. And in my usual fashion I needed to try it first to feel comfortable in listing it as a skill to be used if the situation arose.

There are many reasons that would require the need to hatch birds from eggs. Even if you have your flock already, what would happen if they were to become sick and die leaving you with just eggs? Or if a fox got into the henhouse (literally) and ate all your adult birds. Or a neighbor barters with you for some eggs but doesn’t have enough adult birds to spare. I even thought about the wild birds and wondered if I were to find a nest with duck or goose eggs would I have the skills to utilize these resources.

With my limited knowledge on the subject my first stop was a few internet searches to get some basic information on supplies. What I found was the need for an incubator. This is a container that is made to maintain a steady temperature and humidity for the hatching eggs. This can be as simple as a converted cooler for a few dozen eggs, or as elaborate as a large commercial incubator to handle hundreds or thousands. With preparedness in mind I found plans for converting an old refrigerator into a suitable incubator. (There are many plans available on a variety of web sites for you to choose which might fit your needs) I also came across a commercially available incubator call the “Hovabator”. I was impressed with this model and decided to order it as the cost was minimal and included all the needed parts including a thermometer. When it was delivered I was pleased and impressed with the incubator as well as the detailed instructions and helpful hints. This unit uses standard household 110 volt power however it requires very little power and I did run it for a few days on a deep cycle marine battery hooked to a 750 watt power inverter. After three days there was almost no power loss shown on my volt meter. I would estimate that the battery would easily run this incubator for two weeks before needing to be swapped for a charged battery. However I did set it up in my garage with an average summer time temperature of around 88 degrees, so it required less heating than if running during a cooler season. The instructions suggested a temperature of 100-101 degrees for most species of game birds. Once I had the incubator set up, I ran it for a few weeks to check the reliability. After the initial trial it was now time to pick my eggs.

For my first shot at hatching I wanted to pick a species that would be common for my area but would also be something that I may come across in the wild. And of course cost would be a consideration as well. I first thought quail eggs would be interesting, but they are such a small bird that a large number would be needed to use as a food source. I finally decided on the Eastern Wild Turkey. We have a great population of these game birds on our hunting lease and I thought with their size that the food value would be high. I searched for a company that could supply me with a dozen eggs for the first hatch. I located several breeders but chose B&D Game Farm , based on their informative web site.

I would like to recommend this farm and their quality products. I ordered a dozen eggs online for less than I could buy two frozen turkeys at the grocery store. I did have to wait an extra week for delivery as one of the owners explained over the phone that their wild turkey flock had slowed down on their laying and that a lot of people had been ordering this breed from them. Once the eggs arrived I was pleased to see all the additional information that came along with these eggs. Including a detailed hatching booklet with specific care instructions.

Now it was time to begin the incubation. The eggs were placed in the incubator at 100 degrees. I also added approximately ½ cup of water to the bottom of the tray to keep the humidity high enough. Suggested humidity is 50% up until the last few days where a slight increase is desirable. Water was added every three to four days as needed. Each egg was placed on the tray and was marked with an “X” on one side and an “O” on the other using a #2 pencil. The instructions for the turkey eggs recommended turning the eggs 2-5 times per day and the X’s and O’s would help me to keep track of which side was up. I would recommend at this point that if you do want to hatch a large quantity that you invest in an automatic turner for your incubator. Turning the eggs by hand everyday was fun the first few days and after that become a chore I would pass on to the kids.

The turkeys hatched in 28 days. There are many birds that will hatch sooner and a few that will take longer, but most will be between 14-30 days. Chickens are 21 days, and quail are 14 days. It is best to find out what your chosen breed will be because it is recommended that you stop turning them 2-3 days before they hatch.

Small cracks and then small holes began appearing the morning of the 28th day. The turkeys were trying to get out. Unfortunately the kids wanted to try to help them and we lost one to slippery fingers. Another helpful hint: Do not try to help the chicks by breaking their eggs. They will do fine by themselves if the chicks are healthy. Out of the dozen eggs we lost one to a cracking early on and another to clumsiness and three did not hatch at all, but considering this to be my first try I felt good to have eight out of twelve successfully hatch out. For the poults (turkey chicks) it is okay to leave them in the incubator for up to 24 hours after hatching for them to stay warm and dry off, but then they need to be moved to a brooder or a warmed enclosure. Again with summer temperatures in the south being on the warm side I used a cardboard box and hung a light bulb placed 15” over the box for warmth at night. You may need to have a more elaborate set up in the winter months or in a cooler climate.

Feeding and watering is a simple process and commercially available feed or “scratch” is very inexpensive and available at any “feed and seed” store. Although it appears to be a mix of crushed grains with corn being the main ingredient. An older gentlemen at the feed store mentioned he used to take two handfuls of corn to one handful of wheat and grind until almost a powder when he was feeding his chicks. For those of you who require more technical information a meat bird is recommended to have a diet of at least 18-25% protein base to help it reach its full weight. The feeding trays and water trays should be very shallow as the birds will peck and get it all over themselves [or drown] if given to them in deep trays.

I lost two more birds in the first week but after that they have been growing nicely. I expect them to be full size in another 4-6 months. I have shot wild turkeys upwards of twenty pounds and with these birds being farm raised I hope they will be at least that weight.

I constructed a pen using hardware cloth nailed to poles. It is four feet high and approximately 20’x10’. I also added an old shrub and a three sided wooden box to help give them some protection for inside the enclosure. Right now a few handfuls of feed thrown in the enclosure is about all that is needed and of course a water tray. I do plan on raking out the enclosure each week and laying some straw or sawdust in the bottom.

This experiment has taught me several things. The most important of which is the confidence and basic techniques of raising birds for food in a TEOTWAWKI situation. I plan on doing several more test runs of a variety of birds. My wife has mentioned she would like a few peacocks to add color to our yard. But I’m thinking maybe a few guinea hens or regular laying hens for the next batch. At the very least we will end up with a few chicken dinners and eggs to go with the venison sausage that I made last fall.



Letter Re: Saving Clad Dimes and Quarters?

Sir,
I have accumulated ‘some’ pre-1965 silver. Not the $1,000 face value per family member as seems to be the benchmark but I do have a bit over $1,400 face value and a few gold coins (about two ounces of gold, in combined weight) for my family.

Someone told me that even post-1964 dimes and quarters (and of course pennies and nickels for their real metal value) would have ‘some’ value if the dollar went bust. I do not understand how this can be but I have been saving coins nonetheless.

My question is am I better to take the ‘too heavy to lift’ jar of quarters and dimes I have and buy more pre-1965 junk silver or more food with it rather then hold it hoping it will have value ‘after the fall’ ?
I have no problem holding it as is if that is ‘smart’ in regards to my total survival package. Thanks, – PW

JWR Replies: Depending on the situation the “value” of coins may someday be a matter of their base metal content, but they also have face value. A post-1964 US dime or quarter is a pitiful joke, because it is just a silver-plated copper slug. You are much better off with nickels, or pre-1982 pennies, in terms of face value versus base metal value. See www.coinflation.com for details.

Imagine a future currency reform. Say that inflation sets in and eventually a zero is lopped off the currency. So new paper Federal Reserve notes are issued, and the old notes are recalled for a 10-for-1 exchange. Typically, when such currency transitions occur, the old coins would still circulate at face value, So you’d have an overnight 10X windfall on all coins in your possession, based on their retained face value. (Paper money is relatively easy for a government to switch, but coinage is not!)

My advice os cash in your copper dimes and quarters, and replace them with pre-’65 silver, or perhaps nickels (of any mint date) if you have the storage space. This way you’ll have both a tangible hedge on inflation, and some insurance in the event of a currency re-issue.



Influenza Pandemic Update:

Reader Pete A. sent us a link to an updated interactive map: Tracking the global spread of swine flu

First Wave of Swine Flu Peaks in UK

Mexico registers big jump in swine flu cases

Swine Flu Strategy Under Revision “U.S. authorities will release within days other ‘community-mitigation”‘measures, intended to help keep businesses operating, help hospitals avoid being overwhelmed and guide local authorities in deciding whether to cancel public events, officials said.”



Economics and Investing:

Most of you have noticed the recent price action in silver and gold. Typically, the precious metals go through “Summer Doldrums” each year, with light trading and moderated prices. But not this year! One can only ask: if the market this strong in August, then how will it be in November, as the US Dollar Index (USDI) continues to slide? I hope that you took my advice and bought silver when it was recently under $12.50 per ounce. In my estimation even at $14.50 per ounce, silver is still a bargain. As I’ve often written, buy on the dips.

BusinessWeek says huge wave of corporate Bankruptcies coming. (Thanks to GG for the link.)

Rich suggest this: How Safe is My FDIC-Insured Bank Account?

While our politics are disparate, I’m only rarely disappointed by the analysis and commentary presented by Charles Hugh Smith’s Of Two Minds blog. Here is a recent post: “The Royal Scam” by Anonymous Correspondent

Items from The Economatrix:

Postal Service Considers Closings, Consolidations

Tax Revenues Post Biggest Drop Since The Great Depression

Mainstream Media Economic Recovery Propaganda, False Profits and Some Surprises

Do Not Be Fooled: Another Major Economic Collapse Could Be Coming Sooner than Many Think

Prolonged Aid to Unemployed to Run Out By Year’s End

Alabama’s Jefferson County Makes Massive Job Cuts Lays off 2/3s of 3,600 employees because of plummeting revenues.

New Stimulus? White House to Extend Jobless Aid?



Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader WW says: “Welcome to the Third World, America”: Horse slaughters have Miami-area owners on edge

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Beware march of the killer robots, expert warns
. (Thanks to FG for the lead.)

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Hey, I just noticed that I finally logged my first reader in Cuba! So it is time for an experiment: Fidel Castro is expected to die before the end of August, but will not be succeeded by Hermano Raúl Modesto. (I’ll bet that I suddenly get several more mapped hits in “Cuber”. But of course, they will all just be los escuchas –the DGI‘s Internet gnomes.)

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Highlighted by reader Adam D.: Bomb shelter industry sees spike in sales



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Every truth passes through three stages before it is recognized: In the first it is ridiculed, in the second it is opposed, in the third it is regarded as self-evident." – Arthur Schopenhauer (German Philosopher, 1788-1860)





A Prepper Husband and a Stubborn Wife, by JRM

Part 1 – Introduction

History will repeat itself, for history has shown, that history will repeat itself. Unfortunately my wife is not interested in history. She is, however coming around, and now I pass my knowledge on to others whose “significant others” might not see the picture. Understanding the situation is the first step to doing something about it.

As a young (25 and 22 years old) couple, attached to the US Navy, (entering my sixth year of service) my worst nightmare is a TEOTWAWKI event occurring when I am 2,000 miles away. There is little to be done about this possibility but, as my Marine Corps brethren tell me, adapt and overcome. Contingencies have been planned, but before I get there let me elaborate on how I made a breakthrough with my young, and stubborn wife.

We have been married for three years, and I was blissfully unaware of the possibilities that life as we know it might change. I was in high school when my parents prepared for Y2K, but saw decent planning and stockpiling take place. My wife’s parents planned as well, but they planned a holiday ski trip to Lake Tahoe [for December 31, 1999.]. That being said, when I joined the Navy and landed in Virginia I did not begin to take steps in preparing. That was my first mistake: I met my wife, I wasn’t preparing, and she had no indication that a couple years down the road that I would open my eyes and want to devote so much time and resources towards preparing as best I could.

I can’t pin down the exact moment when I realized that I had lost precious time and felt the urge to get ready. I think it was a steady stream of facts that I was able to put together, and the more I researched the more bleak the picture looked to me. I then began looking for a way to make my family’s situation better. The first thing I realized was that it would cost money to prepare. So, I dusted off the planned budget, took out a red pen and started making cuts and shifting priorities around. After I felt satisfied, I sat my wife down and proposed the new budget. Needless to say, my “radical” new budget was shot down.

Part 2 – The Wrong Way

I was not entirely discouraged, but a little disappointed that my wife didn’t just take my word that we needed to spend money and time on preparing. I suppose that an older (read: “wiser”) man would have known to ease his wife into a new lifestyle.

I then made my second big mistake. Feeling that I “knew better” and was doing it for “her own good” I began to run a “disinformation campaign” on my wife. (Note: I don’t endorse this method, as in my own experience it will fail in the end!) With spring starting, I began a dialogue with my wife about camping. It seemed logical to me, we devote money and time preparing for a few camping trips, I cross some of my items off the “need for preparation” list and she is none the wiser. It worked. We both had bug out bags, I mean “hiking packs”, some cooking gear, some camping knives, flashlights, a good tent, sleeping bags, first aid kits, and the like. I was even allowed to make most of the purchases for her (thus ensuring that we didn’t end up with a bright red tent, a hot pink pack and such.) We went camping, it was great, learned a few things about her ability in the wilderness (and my own) and several more things were added to my “preparation list” that I had never though of.

I felt great, stage one of my disinformation campaign was a success, and I felt ready to move on the next stage. The garden. My wife loves her flower garden. We started with a weed-infested back yard, and with a lot of hard work (on my part) and a vision (wife’s department) we ended up with a nice yard, with a lot of flowers and ornamental trees. I don’t intend on eating trees and flowers, so I just brought up the subject of a home vegetable garden. She liked the idea, but it was something that we really knew nothing about. We did some research on the internet, and she was immediately overwhelmed by the information and lost motivation. (I mean, c’mon we live within walking distance to the commissary.)

I was greatly helped by a new girlfriend she had made. Her friend opened her eyes to organic foods and sold her on the benefits of buying organic. I just had to wait for the right time, because I knew that the organic food store was much more expensive than the commissary. I would use my wife’s own argument against her, that organic foods cost too much, but I would compromise and “allow the expense” of growing our own organic garden, which would offset the cost of buying organic meats and milk. Stage two complete.

I continued with my disinformation campaign for months, and was able to cross a decent amount of things off my “preparation list”. But it was this very list that was my undoing. While cleaning she came across my list, and saw that very clearly, I had checked many things off. Then the light bulb clicked on and the gig was up. Understandably she was hurt. For months I had been less than honest about my intentions, and she viewed it as selfish and childish. Which it was. I won’t go into detail about how terrible that night was when I got home, but it’s safe to say that my plans for being ready were placed on hold.

Part 3 – The Right Way

As a uniformed service member I feel it necessary to keep my political beliefs private. Because of this, my wife became my outlet for venting frustration with policies I don’t agree with. At first my wife was uninterested in the happenings in D.C., because she felt that it would have little impact on her way of life. This was a blessing in disguise that brought my wife to a point in her life where she wanted answers.

My wife and I were invited to a friend’s house for dinner and drinks. Little to my knowledge, my friend’s wife is very passionate about politics. As drinks were made, discussion ensued, and before long politics was being discussed. My friend, a Marine, is a conservative through and through. He has no problems voicing his opinions on any number of topics and policies. His wife is as liberal a person as I have ever met. The debate was quite invigorating. My poor wife, knowing only the politics that I preach to her, decided to throw her two cents in, but could barely regurgitate the things I had said previously to her, let alone defend her “position” when pointed questions were asked.

The next day I came home to my wife watching the news, and reading headlines on her laptop. She would never get into another political debate without knowing what she was talking about. I was impressed, and engaged her in many long conversations. I showed her articles and stories, and allowed her time to come to her own conclusions, the same way I came to my conclusions. But in the end it was Glenn Beck’s show that prompted a question from her, “Is it possible that our economy could really collapse?”

Now I know, at 25 that I am in no position to give history lessons, but I did my best and pointed mostly towards the 1930s as an example. I talked at length about the increased danger we live in now, as modern day America is not what it was in 1930. The danger is not in the market, but in the fragility of our now intertwined systems. We talked for quite a while, and in the end talked how to protect ourselves. And finally talking about how to prepare for the worst, should it come.

Part 4 – The Plan

Again, we pulled out the family budget, and re-prioritized. In the end we were able to devote $200 a month for preparations. That was three months ago.

Simple. That was my number one priority, as it pertains to a plan. Mostly, because I knew that there is a decent chance that I could be across the world when/if an event happened.

My first purchases were paper, a few three-ring binders, and some shelving. I started by making lists of everything. Then I developed a set of SOPs, checklists and a commo plan. These are very much still in a beginning stage, but they get better every week. These binders serve three purposes. One, they allow me to think things though, and shoot holes in my plans. Two, give my wife an easy set of instructions to follow should I be deployed. Three, give me piece of mind when I am away.

Eventually, these binders will evolve into an all encompassing SOP. Set up similarly to a “choose your own adventure” book. Meaning that, you evaluate your current situation then flip to that section for a course of action. (For example, a Hurricane is rolling in, and it’s going to require an evacuation. Turn to page 16 for instructions. Or it is a G.O.O.D. situation and you have an hour to get loaded up and out of town, turn to page 74.) In conjunction with this, the shelving units in the garage are organized with the binder. Meaning, that for a hurricane, all items on shelves one and two have priority in the truck.

Most of the things we have done thus far are extremely cheap. Making plans for instance, are free. Aside from the cost of the 3 ring binder, paper and ink, planning for an escape was free. We live in a very densely populated area, and our tentative plan is to bug out early to a planned waypoint to reassess the situation. I do not want to risk waiting and “fighting” my way out of town, so we may have a few “unplanned camping trips” that turn out to be false alarms, but I’ll chalk it up to practice. As funds are available, I hope to store a cache of goods at this location to enable us to travel further west without needing assistance or gas stations. This first waypoint is just inside the range my truck can go on a half a tank of gas, with three routes already planned if needed.

I feel that at this stage we would be ahead of the hordes of people trying to evacuate the east coast. From this point we should be able to “camp”, assess the situation via radio, and decide on the next course of action. If it’s a false alarm, we pack our things in the morning and head home. If not we decide which preplanned route would be safest to get to our second waypoint. (note I have planned for a few waypoints for my second leg. Basically, if you drew a vertical line every 250-300 miles across the US there would be a few waypoints close to that line.) This will allow for flexibility in planning as we continue to assess the situation. If we must go north to get out west we will have a plan, if we can still use the interstate there will be a plan, of we need to go south there is a plan. All we have to do is chose at each leg. The hardest part of planning was having contingencies for natural barriers, such as the Appalachian Mountains and the Mississippi river.

Of course we have a destination in mind, and that is linking up with some like minded family members, who will hopefully be waiting for us when we arrive at grandpa’s house out in the middle of nowhere.

90% of our focus has been on bugging out, but we plan to start shifting some focus on maintaining the homestead. This would likely be limited to a high inflation scenario, where food storage would offset costs and impact us less, as well as securing the house for the rise in crime. However, it would be foolish in our situation to stay in our city for most foreseeable situations.

The other cheap way we have begun to prepare is mentally. This was difficult for my wife. I started by giving her my copy of “Patriots” and then a copy of The Road“. It allowed her to see a significant contrast in what could happen, as well as the difference between preparing or not preparing.

I will end with this. We are only three months into actively preparing ourselves. And in a short essay it is impossible to discuss all the things we have tried. But there are some fundamental things that have worked for us.

– You have to be a team. I have gotten much further working as a team than trying to “sneak around” and prepare.

– You have to prepare spiritually. I am not a fan of church, as every time I go I feel like I am being sold something. My wife and I go straight to the source for our spiritual guidance. Prayer and studying the Bible works for us. But you need to find what works for you.

– You have to stay motivated. Keep yourself informed, and do something every single day that makes you a little more prepared. 365 little things to prepare will get me much further than saving up and buying a bunch of gear at the end of the year.

– You have to look for support. Too many of my peers (20-30 years old) are happy being blissfully unaware. But many are opening there eyes every day, and just need a friend to help them. This is where my plan falls flat, for now. Establishing a network of people to count on is very high on my priorities, but with the ever evolving network of friends getting rotated to new duty stations every couple of years this has been hard.

– You have to have a plan, and expect it to fail. I’ve been on many military missions, and Murphy has been there every single time. But it is easier to adjust a plan or fall back on a contingency than it is to shoot from the hip.



Three Letters Re: Here Comes Winter!

Hello JWR,
In reply to LRM in Perth on winter gear, I agree with the idea of layering, and using the outer layers to create a waterproof and windproof shell. I disagree that cotton is the fabric of choice to do it.

If your activities are mostly sedentary, I think the cotton might work alright, as it is breathable, and you’re not perspiring much. However, if you are engaged in a physical activity, such as patrolling, doing chores, etc, you will need to both shed outer layers, and have a good hydrophobic fabric to pass the moisture created by perspiration.

My layering system, which I use for cross country skiing and winter camping, includes a base layer of a polypropylene set of long underwear, a fleece jacket or sweatshirt, a synthetic fill jacket, and a lightweight Gore-tex shell. For pants I have fleece pants over a light-weight Gore-tex shell. The advantage to this system is that I can shed layers as needed. When cross country skiing I regularly use only the long underwear and the shell, and quickly add the fleece when I stop.

In a system with high exertion or cardiovascular activity, cotton will soak quickly, and the fabric loses its insulation capabilities. In these cases, adding more layers may not be beneficial, as the water trapped in the cotton fabric is aiding the heat transfer from your body to the outside air.

So, that in mind, wisely choose your winter gear, and be sure to choose application appropriate things. I worked at a camping gear store for several years, and can say that your local camping stores are probably a wealth of knowledge in suitable outdoor gear. Go, ask questions, and learn what the products do. From there, you have the knowledge to choose what gear you may need. Whether it be consumer intent winter gear, or paramilitary intent gear, you’ll have the knowledge of what materials and systems to look for. In my case, my winter gear has all remained the same, but I invested in a winter camouflage pattern Gore-tex shell to keep my consumer-intent layering system dry. – DJ in Michigan

JWR,
I was a little confused to see the reader who posted that he prefers and recommends cotton clothing as the base layer in a cold weather situation. Especially the mention of jean pants. Under mild conditions and little exertion this may be ok, but cotton materials and especially jean fabric are very poor insulators when damp, which can happen quickly during even the slightest physical activity. The real downside to cotton fibers is once they are damp or wet they take a much longer time to dry out. And if they are sitting against your skin and they are damp it will actually suck body heat from you. Having spent many years in the frozen New England winters and with thousands of hours camping in the the middle of winter (thanks to my Scoutmaster who was determined to camp in all 12 months of the year who by the way was also my Father) I can tell you with certainty that today’s polypropylene or other synthetics are not only more comfortable but are easier to care for, last longer, and increase your ability to retain heat. IMHO the reader should try some of the new products and see what a difference they can make.
Sincerely, – Jason C.

 

JWR –

I appreciate the work you do each day in bringing us all to a higher level of knowledge through your blog. It is great stuff. So thank you!I am writing because I feel the need to add more to, and somewhat rebut, a posting on some advice provided by Chris G. on the Monday August 3 posting regarding winter clothing.

Good things mentioned in the posting:

1. You definitely want to wear multiple layers, no question

2. Your layers should include insulating layers beneath, with water and wind proof outer layers.

However, I find the recommendation for the under layers being “cotton” to be a very dangerous suggestion. Why you ask? Here are my thoughts on the matter…

I would first start with the question of “What is my intended activity in said winter weather?”

Reasoning: Cotton may be fine if in your intended winter activity you have no possibility of getting wet. Getting wet? Well, I have a waterproof outer layer you say – so I’m safe. Well, what if you were to fall through some ice, or get some snow shoved down/up your snowsuit after taking a spill on your snowmobile? Even if those are remote possibilities for you, the more important question is if your activity will involve anything that may cause you to perspire. Cotton may be fine if you are doing non-active work, play, or travel (non-cardio types of activities) and can thus stay dry and warm. Cotton is indeed very comfortable, no doubt. But please also think about your own perspiration.

Has anyone heard the phrase “Cotton Kills [in the cold]”? Hopefully so…

If you think you may be doing anything active, where you may sweat, think again about your under layers and if you want to be wearing cotton. The number one problem with cotton includes the fact that when it gets wet, it can and will stay wet for a very long time. Due to the fiber makeup of cotton threads themselves, cotton will absorb water, causing the fabric to quickly lose its ability to insulate when wet. Think about your sweat, your own perspiration – it is a hidden danger that some do not consider. Moisture against your body will sap body heat from you. You want to avoid any possibility of such as it may lead to hypothermia. Cotton also gets very heavy when wet.

Therefore, it is my recommendation that under layers should be synthetic or wool, with my preference being synthetic. Both of these materials will maintain their insulating qualities when wet – with synthetic being the one that is usually easier to “wring out” if ever wet, and wool being the fabric that will absorb some moisture. As synthetics never absorb the moisture, you avoid it becoming heavy with water. Some synthetic insulation such as polyester fleece is very comfortable and lightweight (Try Patagonia’s Capilene, or other similar outdoor recreation brands – very comfortable). If properly layered with an outer wind and water proof blocking layer, it is very effective insulation.

Synthetics such as polar fleece also have a great warmth to weight ratio, wet or dry, which can also allow you to carry more clothing in your pack from a weight perspective as you bug out of town. Some may be a little bulky – but they are lightweight bulk.

In the end – wouldn’t you just rather be prepared with synthetic winter clothing at all times? to be ready for any and all situations, active or non-active, and not risk being caught dead in cotton clothing?

Just a few thoughts from another Idaho outdoorsman/recreationalist. Keep up the great work JWR! – Kind regards, – D.R.



Economics and Investing:

“John Smith” sent this: Bailout Banks Buying Treasuries Help Keep Rates Low. John’s comment: “This article illustrates how the Fed has cleverly ‘deputized’ banks to do its dirty work. Through a combination of very cheap funding (due to Fed policies) and lack of other attractive places to deploy money, banks have been encouraged to buy huge amounts of longer-term treasuries, effectively doing the Fed’s Quantitative Easing for it. So Quantitative Easing is alive and well, even if the Fed is just playing the role of central planner, not buyer in chief. That’s some slick sleight of hand by Chairman Ben. But I think the end result will be the same, as long as the US still has more debt to issue – when banks can’t keep buying, either yields will have to rise massively (killing the “recovery”), or the Fed will have to step in and monetize the debt (sparking inflation).

The next four items are courtesy of Karen H.:

Obama Officials Eye More Jobless Aids, Weigh Taxes “The New York Times reported on Sunday that up to 1.5 million Americans will exhaust their unemployment benefits in coming months, pushing more into home foreclosures and destitution.”

Warning: Oil Supplies are Running Out Fast

In the Recession, Shoppers are Becoming Hagglers

Homeowners Facing Years of Negative Equity

Items from The Economatrix:

Marty Weiss: The “X” List: Weakest Banks and Insurers It lists s2,688 banks with “D” ratings or worse. Is one of them yours?

After $182 Billion Bailout, is AIG on Verge of Collapse Again?

US Jobs Cuts, Foreclosures Mount

Obama Says US “Many More Months” Before Recovery

Two Obama Officials: No Guarantee Your Taxes Won’t Go Up Geithner: “People have to understand we have to bring those deficits down” JWR’s Corrected Headline: We Guarantee That Your Taxes Will Go Up

Greenspan: Housing Could Take Another Turn Downward

Biggest US Banks Reward Stars with Huge Bonuses

For Retirement Savings, Employees Increasingly on Their Own 40% of 401(k) plans have stopped, reduced, considered suspending matches

Commodities Add to Recent Gains as Dollar Sinks JWR’s Comment: We can expect a drop in the US Dollar Index (USDI) below the magic 72 level in the next few months. Spot silver and gold will benefit, correspondingly.

Day Labor Centers Threatened By Economy

Next Great Bailout: Fixing Social Security

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Over $45,000 Per Car