Odds ‘n Sods:

Charles V. recommended this editorial by Craig R. Smith, the CEO of Swiss America: In the eye of an economic storm

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Readers Jerry S., OSOM, Korey, Nick, and Rob A. all sent us this: The Fannie and Freddie doomsday scenario–It’s time to wonder what would happen if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac failed. Here is a telling quote: “‘If Fannie or Freddie failed, it would be far worse than the fall of [investment bank] Bear Stearns,’ says Sean Egan, head of credit ratings firm Egan Jones. ‘It could throw the economy into depression or something close to it.'”

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Brent F. suggest this article from The Age, down in Oz: $8 a litre tipped for 2018

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Frequent content contributor Hawaiian K. recommended a PDF of a good, basic primer on responding to NBC incidents, available from Richard Fleetwood’s outstanding SurvivalRing site.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“We are thus in the position of having to borrow from Europe to defend Europe, of having to borrow from China and Japan to defend Chinese and Japanese access to [Persian] Gulf oil, and of having to borrow from Arab emirs, sultans and monarchs to make Iraq safe for democracy. We borrow from the nations we defend so that we may continue to defend them. To question this is an unpardonable heresy called ‘isolationism’.” – Patrick J. Buchanan

Note from JWR:

Special thanks to Bruce C., a US Air Force officer that kindly volunteered some if his spare time to re-edit the SurvivalBlog Glossary. He helped flesh out a number of entries, and made some corrections, particularly for some radio and aviation terms. Gracias!

Two Letters Re: Amassing Copper Pennies–By the Ton!

Dear Jim:
I enjoy and appreciate your site. I am concerned about the gentlemen [TRK, who stated in a recently-posted e-mail that he is] amassing tons of copper pennies. I understand his desire to hedge against inflation, but it seems risky to do so with a $60,000 investment in copper pennies. I didn’t want to see your readers get wiped out by following his bad advice.

Let’s remember, you can’t fill your belly with pennies, nor can you bandage your wounds with them. While pennies are certainly tangible, preparedness is all about useful tangibles. Beans, bullets, Band-Aids. Preparedness is first about having the immediate means of [preserving] life on hand, second about having the knowledge and means to adapt to changes, and third, about protecting what you have. (Which might include your monetary wealth, including protecting it from inflation).

First lesson: What this gentleman is doing is last priority. You can do without money, you can’t do without food for your family or the means to provide it in the future. Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he has his priorities already squared away.

The Problems With Pennies

The Government has made bulk melting down coins illegal [, per] 31 USC 5111 allows the Secretary of the Treasury to prohibit melting of coins (which he has). The penalty for violation of it is five years in federal prison. I realize that the prepper, TRK, said nothing about melting them down, but, see my next point:

Which is more likely?: The entire US will come to a rapid, screeching halt, or the prepper will have an unexpected event happen in his life: the loss of a job, an illness, et cetera.

If something happened (which it always does), and he needed the to cash out his notional gains into real cash, the only place he could really do it would be a scrap metal shop – and they’re not going to buy his pennies if the penalty is 5 years in the clink.

So, if he needs the money, he’s going to have to cash the coins in at face value. Actually, probably a discount to face value, because no bank is going to accept tons of pennies, he’ll have to find some way to get paper money.

If he was able to cash out, he’d wouldn’t be “assured” of getting what he paid for them as he suggests. He’d take a full body punch of inflation. If, as he says, inflation runs at 20% a year, and he has to cash out after five years, he would have lost 80% of his “face value”. His $60,000 would only purchase $12,000 worth of goods [in real terms].

Okay, you say, I’ll melt it myself and deliver the melted down metal to a scrap metal shop. No good. Copper melts at 1,984 degrees F. No big deal if you’re melting one or one hundred pennies, but if your melting over 14 million pennies, like someone who has 40 tons of pennies would have to, it’s gonna take quite a bit of time and energy, as well as specialized equipment.

Miscalculation of Future Value

The prepper in question may assume that, in the future “after the collapse,” copper will be worth more than it is now. Is that necessarily true? In the event of a wholesale collapse, who exactly, will be buying copper? Further, he assumes a global market. But, in a collapse, he will only be able to sell to buyers near where he lives, and they will determine the value of his copper. Since copper can’t be eaten, and, as a soft metal, it isn’t good for machining or armoring or the like, he’d be damned lucky to be able to sell it at any price.

While copper isn’t an unlimited resource, it is fairly abundant and is easily recycled. In a collapse, it will have near zero value. Long term, it’s value is still likely to be lower than it is today, a time when China’s overheated economy is driving up prices from equilibrium.

The uncertainty of the future value of copper puts this prepper and his family in significant jeopardy. He can’t count on his copper to provide for his family in a crisis.

The Bartering Boondoggle

Again, in a collapse situation, copper is also worthless for bartering. First, it will be difficult to convince people that your pennies are 95% copper. Yes, the date indicates that, but they only have your word to take. There is no Internet that they can consult to ascertain the veracity of your story. So, your probably out of luck. People have jars of pennies lying around their houses.

More importantly, copper isn’t gold or silver. I might very well sell you a dozen head of cattle for such and such amount of silver (or gold), but not for copper. The reason is familiarity. People are familiar with silver and gold as money. They know it’s worth. They know that they will be able to trade it to someone else for what they need. It has a deeply-ingrained cultural acceptance, even in this age of credit cards and toilet-paper money.

Not so with copper. People are familiar with it (if at all) as plumbing and wiring. There’s no impression of worth, no trust that it can be exchanged for other goods and services. Further, people have no way to value copper, absent a global market, and, as as the dozen head of cattle example suggests, even if they would accept copper, it’s far to bulky for large-value transactions.

So, as we’ve seen,
1. Copper is not a survival prep
2. It is far more likely that you’ll need access to your money than it is that the country will quickly and immediately collapse
3. Copper will be [in a collapse] probably worth pennies on the dollar. (Heh, heh)
4. Copper doesn’t have barter value

I’m sorry to have to tear apart this scheme so thoroughly, but people could get hurt by following TRK’s example. I envy the author’s creativity and zeal for fighting back against the evils of inflation, but this is not the way to do it.

[As you’ve stressed in SurvivalBlog many times:] Beans, bullets, band aids first, then tools and knowledge for future employment. Last priority is protecting your assets. Readers should remember that you may need your money sooner rather than later, so it’s not wise to lock up all you have in “survival” assets. You still need cash, money in the bank, T-bills, even stocks. Land is a great investment, but only at a good price and only if it’s only a relatively small percentage of your wealth.

If there’s an overall lesson here, it may be that we must prepare for the absence of collapse, just as we prepare for other eventualities.

Miscellaneous errata from the author’s letter:

His math assumes that all 20 tons is copper. 5% is zinc which is worth only $.78 per pound. The real problem would be separating the zinc from the copper if you had to melt it down yourself. Also, I don’t know if scrap metal shops might refuse pennies for similar reasons (in addition to the illegality).

A semi-truck load is 40 tons, not 20 tons. That is gross weight, so total payload capacity is less. Also this is a DOT rule, and carriers obviously load whatever they want.

Note: 20 tons is about 14.5 million pennies. That is an amazing figure. – Tom A

 

Jim:
See this law reference: Five Cent and One Cent Coin Regulations
[The current Federal law states:]

“Except as specifically authorized by the Secretary of the Treasury (or designee) or as otherwise provided in this part, no person shall export, melt, or treat:
(a) Any 5-cent coin of the United States; or
(b) Any one-cent coin of the United States.”

Regards, – PNG

JWR Replies: Your concerns are well-founded. In my piece about saving nickels, I make the same point: The U.S. Treasury ban on melting 1-cent and 5-cent coins went into effect in April of 2007. So it is indeed currently illegal for any “person” in the US to melt penny and nickel coins. It is also illegal to export more than $100 face value of pennies of nickels. (This intended to thwart salvage coin melting overseas, outside of US jurisdiction.) There is, however, a bill before the US Congress that would mandate the issuance of copper-plated steel pennies and that will likely result in the eventual rescission of the the penny and nickel melting ban. The bill, H.R. 5512, was authored by Congressman Zack Space, of Ohio. Space’s bill has already passed in in the House, and will most likely pass in the Senate and be enacted, but there are no guarantees.

At this juncture, I should repeat a couple of important provisos: Any speculative investing should be seen as a potential total loss, and hence should never account for more than 5% of one’s net worth. And, as I’ve stated dozens of times, any such investing should be pursued only after getting your key logistics, tools, training, and retreat property squared away, and only after eliminating all of your debts. These constraints put this sort of investing outside the reach of 95% of the SurvivalBlog readers. Sure, I advise going ahead and collecting a few rolls of nickels, but don’t go hog wild in amassing copper pennies and nickels as a primary hedge against inflation. That would be a foolish venture.

Two Letters Re: The Mil-Spec AR-15 Makers–Parts Chart

I imagine you are going to get a lot of e-mails stating the chart [posted on an Internet Forum] that you cited is inaccurate. At least in the case of the all-factory Bushmaster, I own I can say there were at least a couple of missing “X”‘s [in the chart]. Likewise, I question who exactly was the metallurgist who placed a “1” in the barrel steel column.

Also, Bushmaster has a lifetime warranty. It’s right on their web site and I can assure you they honor it. When I had a parts breakage issue after thousands of rounds put through the rifle, I received prompt, courteous no-hassle service.

Internet commando reports need to be taken with a pound of salt. It’s hard to tell how many so-called “factory” rifles discussed in online forums are little more than parts kit guns [that were] assembled at home [that started out] with no more than the stripped lower receiver being the only real factory part.

I have run into this a lot at gun shows with even FFL dealers selling complete guns as “Bushmaster brand” and quickly finding that the rifles did not even have chrome-lined barrels (this is standard in their mil-style civilian knock-offs) and/or had the stamps of brands from the parts kits seller right on them.

I’d like to note that many of the parts dealers here in the midwest do not even sell chrome-lined barrels for the most part because the home [AR] builders are more
interested in saving $35. At the last large show I attended there were only two complete [barreled] upper [receiver]s out of 40 [seen there] which had chrome-lined barrels. The parts dealers were at least honest about which were which, even if the re-sellers were not always honest. Buyer Beware! – Chris S.

James:
The rifles from Colt’s Manufacturing have some undesirable features like pinned, non-retractable stock and are lacking a muzzle device and bayonet lug. Colts Manufacturing is the same operation that makes the M1911-style pistols and single action revolvers.

The rifles from Colt Defense have all the desired features (except of course no [full auto] “fun switch” for civilians.) Colt Defense has the M4 contract for the military and also make the “Law Enforcement” rifles which may also be purchased by civilians.

I’m not sure but I don’t think either segment of the business (and both sell [indirectly] to civilians) uses the old screw-type front receiver (pivot) pin at this point.

The Colt Defense Model 6920 is the carbine that is closest to the military M4. Using a 16″ (versus 14.5″ for [government contract] M4) chrome-lined government profile barrel with M203 cuts, bayonet lug, flash suppressor, removable carry handle, railed flat top upper, fully shrouded bolt carrier and collapsible stock. It is the weapon most likely to be chosen by someone wanting an all around, lightweight accurate AR-style carbine from Colt.

I have recently purchased several Colt Model 6721 carbines (similar to the Model 6920 but with a heavier barrel) and both came with the fully shrouded bolt carrier. See this post for details. Neither of these carbines have the “now perennial two screws-in-place-of-a-front-pivot-pin design” [you mentioned] although they do have the oversized [hammer and trigger] pins.

Although I am more of a FAL 7.62 mm NATO guy, I have owned a number of AR-15s including ArmaLite, CMMG and Stag Arms. I find the Colt carbines, which I regularly use for three-gun competitions and occasionally for tactical training, are fine weapons and if needed I would certainly trust my life to them. In addition, I had no problem finding guns available for purchase (I’m neither a LEO or in the military) and contact with Colt has been excellent in regard to questions.

Keep up the good work with your informative and enjoyable blog. There wouldn’t be enough intelligent info across the spectrum relating to preparedness without your remarkable web site. – John E.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Readers Josh W. and John M. both sent us this article link: Black Box Warning for Antibiotic

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Eric found this: As food costs soar, it’s back to basics for meal planners. Eric’s comment: “What a wonderful chance for folks to start learning about eating their food storage foods and saving money! I think about my friends who have hundreds of pounds of red winter wheat put up and no idea what to do with it – they have no [grain] mill and don’t eat whole wheat bread or whole wheat anything. As someone who has been eating commercially available whole wheat products for decades it took my metabolism a while to become accustomed to 100% whole wheat bread made from our storage wheat – and I’m better for it. Now store bought bread tastes fake to me – it lacks flavor.”

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Kevin A. flagged this piece over art The Silver Bear Cafe: Understanding Bernanke, by Rolfe Winkler.

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RJ spotted this news article from England’s Financial Times: Widespread alarm is rattling at castle gates. The current real estate collapse is hitting the entire English-speaking world, and beyond. This is all tied to the global credit collapse that I’ve been shouting about since the summer of Aught Seven. And this collapse is nowhere near over. Methinks things will get a lot worse before they get better.

Note from JWR:

Please mention SurvivalBlog whenever you phone into a talk radio show or podcast where the discussion touches on preparedness. Thanks!

Letter Re: The Pulp Hook–A Labor Saving Device for Moving Firewood

Hi Jim,
Several years ago I was hunting black bear in the boonies of Canada. As I came out of the bush I could see a native cutting fire wood. As I walked towards him I watched him at work and he did something completely out of my experience. He had what I thought was a hay hook which he proceeded to snap into a cut piece of birch. He then turned towards his pickup and carried the piece of firewood stuck onto the end of the hook. He got to the pickup, swung the piece of firewood onto the truck, pulled his wrist back and the piece of wood landed in the back of the pickup.

What I have not mentioned is that the fellow was 74 years old at the time and he did not stoop over as he picked up the piece of firewood from the ground. He did not stoop over to pick up the piece of firewood. If you have cut much firewood at all that will make your ears perk up and your back stop aching.

Naturally I stopped to find out what this tool was. He had not spoken English in 18 years and I speak no French but we got things worked out. His tool is called a pulp hook. It does not have a straight point like a hay hook but is more wedged shaped with a small tip on the inside portion of the tip. You don’t have to bury the point in the fire wood 3?4” to 1” will pick up almost any wood. Pretty clever.

I purchased the type of pulp hook with a replaceable tip. There is a learning curve to using these, but let me tell you, it is well worth the time. Also when unloading the pickup you can almost clean off the pickup with out getting into the bed by using the pulp hook to pull the wood to the tail gate. Some hard woods like hickory sneer at the pulp hook as it bounces off but most other woods it will handle with ease. Whether SHTF or day-to-day, any tool that saves the back needs to be looked at.

Abigail and I heat the house and our hot water primarily with wood. I am in my 50s, and did I mention that using the pulp hook you did not have to bend over to pick up a piece of firewood from the ground? Yours truly, – John and Abigail Adams

Letter Re: Solar Flare Spike in 2012?

Jim:Regarding your recent interview on Fox Business about the significance of 2012: When I was a teenager, it was the Mayan 2012 [calendar] event that got me interested in preparedness. I ran with a bit of an impromptu Boy Scout like crowd (we weren’t Boy Scouts but our parents encouraged us to hunt, fish and camp). It was fun imaginary scenario when we were kids. I grew out of my Mayan 2012 phase. As an adult, I am preparing for a solar 2012 event. Essentially, a couple of years ago, I came across some research by a guy who was a major solar flare event about 2012 (plus or minus a year).

I did some digging, and found that he is predicting a “one every 250 years” event. These are solar flares big enough to terminate every [unprotected] electronic device on earth instantly. The researchers do not doubt it is coming, only that there is a 50% chance it is nullified by the earth’s magnetic field (depends on the polarity of each). If it is not nullified, all [unprotected] electronic equipment that is powered on will be neutralized. (This will include power relay stations.)

I’m a little vague on the exact numbers. What I do know is pretty simple, but clear. Between 2011 and 2013 the event will occur. When it happens, there is a 50% chance that all electronic devices [that have sub-micron gate dimension microcircuits] that are on, will stop working permanently.
Here is a link to an article regarding the research on NASA’s web site. (Dikpati’s forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011.) – Jeff C. in Canada

Letter Re: Amassing Copper Pennies–By the Ton!

Jim,
I read a recent blog of yours that was posted on “Gold is Money” regarding hoarding of 5 cent “nickels”. The penny is a much better deal (currently at just about 2.5 times their face value) and [as you’ve mentioned in SurvivalBlog, Ryedale has developed and sells a machine for under $500 that sorts by metal composition. [It sorts] 300 coins per minute.
I have been amassing copper pennies for a little over one year now. Here is a summary of my plan that I’ve posted on the”Gold is Money” forums:

I’ve got five tons of 95% copper and counting. I’m now adding another ton every four months. My goal is to amassing 20 tons on e. (That is one full semi-truck load (by weight). I expect to get 85% of spot [when I eventually sell it. I anticipate] when spot is well over $10/lb. This will likely happen inside of five years. Here is the math: 40,000 lbs x $10/lb x 85% = $340,000 on an initial investment of $60,000.

Copper is currently near $4/lb. Assume constant 15% to 20% inflation and it should easily more than double inside of five years. So, I think that $10/lb is on the low side.

This hobby/investment requires about 8 hours per week. 5 years x 52 weeks/yr x 8hrs/wk = 2,080 hours of labor. That is the same as one year of a typical full time job. So, $340,000 profit / 2080 hours = $163/ per hour. Even in a world of 15% – 20% inflation, that is outstanding pay. I also have a 100% guarantee [of my amassed pennies always] being worth face value.

Since everyone asks: One ton will fill an oil drum. So, storage space is not a big issue. Regards, – T.R.K

Odds ‘n Sods:

Hawaiian K. pointed us to an article by Robert Silverberg, over at Asimov’s: The Death of Gallium. The Peak Oil crowd may be interested to hear about disappearing elements. The crux of the problem: Infinite demand, and finite supply. Reading this makes me want to go out and invest in Gallium, Hafnium, and Indium–the elements themselves, or mining companies.) Or perhaps I should go for the speculative gusto and invest in a deep sea vent mining company.

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Tim P. mentioned this piece over at WorldNetDaily: Congress examines EMP threat–Iran believed to test missiles for attack on U.S.

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Arlyn sent us this article (also linked at The Drudge Report): With resources tight, Californians take on wildfires themselves. These folks sound a lot like SurvivalBlog readers! Arlyn’s comment: “Here is a story about rural California towns pulling together to fight the wildfires when the state government is out of resources to help them. I think this story shows that prepared Americans can fend for themselves when their government fails to help them. Improving one’s skills in self-sufficiency, fire fighting in this case, pays off when things get tough.”

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This Washington Times article describes something so ludicrous that only a bureaucrat could have seriously considered it: Want Some Torture with Your Peanuts? (A hat tip to KAF for sending the link.) OBTW, if this is such a great idea, then why not take it a step further and give each passenger a Running Man-type decapitation collar, so stewardesses can get prompt 100% compliance when they order “seat backs and tray table to their full upright positions.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Today Americans would be outraged if U.N. troops entered Los Angeles to restore order; tomorrow they will be grateful. This is especially true if they were told there was an outside threat from beyond, whether real or promulgated, that threatened our very existence. It is then that all peoples of the world will plead with world leaders to deliver them from this evil. The one thing every man fears is the unknown. When presented with this scenario, individual rights will be willingly relinquished for the guarantee of their well being granted to them by their world government." – Henry Kissinger, speaking at a Bilderberg Group meeting in Evian, France, May 21, 1992.

Note from JWR:

The high bid in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is at $370. This auction is for two cases (12 cans) of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans donated by Ready Made Resources, valued at $260, a course certificate for a four-day Bushcraft & Survival Course valued at $550, 25 pounds of green (un-roasted) Colombian Supremo coffee courtesy of www.cmebrew.com valued at $88.75, and a set of 1,600 U.S. Military Manuals, Government Manuals, and Civil Defense Manuals, Firearm Manuals on two CD-ROM disks, valued at $20. Please e-mail us your bids, in $10 increments. The auction ends on July 15, 2008.

Letter Re: Some Transceiver Antenna Questions

Jim;
By purchasing a 60-inch collapsible antenna, I was able to get a lot more range out of my hand-held transceivers, but that’s all I know. Can you give a short tutorial on antennas? What is a ground plane, when is it necessary? Would full wavelength be better than 1/4 wavelength? For a base system, would you recommend Yagi or something else? Thanks, – SF in Hawaii

JWR Replies (Updated): To begin, one-half wave antennas are theoretically the most efficient. Shorter fractional wavelength antennas (quarter-wave, 1/8th-wave, et cetera) are used primarily for compactness and lower cost. I was told by our correspondent David in Israel (an experienced ham operator) that a full wave antenna actually cancels out signals on its resonant frequency–the peak and trough energy is 1+(-1) = 0. To illustrate some practical aspects of wavelength: CB radio frequencies have a wavelength of around 10 meters (about 33 feet). It is possible to use a 1/2-wavelength CB antenna at a home or at a retreat, but not mounted on a vehicle. (On a vehicle, even a 1/2 wavelength antenna is often too tall.) The MURS Band (my favorite for short range communications) has a wavelength of around 2 meters, so using a half-wavelength antenna is much more practical. See this index page from the ARRL for a good basic understanding of how both transmitting and receiving antennas work.

A ground plane is a reflective flat surface that limits the downward radiation of an antenna. When operating a transceiver with an antenna mounted on a vehicle with typical steel body panels, the vehicle itself forms a ground plane. This is why the most efficient antenna mounting location is at the top-center of a vehicle. But, unfortunately, this also places an antenna at the greatest risk of impact damage. This explains why bumper-mounted antennas are more popular, despite their distorted transmission characteristics and inefficiency.

A log periodic antenna (LPA) or Yagi-type antenna can be very effective, but keep in mind that like other antennas, they need to be properly polarized. Most mobile two-way radios use vertical polarization. Hence, your LPA or Yagi will not have the traditional horizontal “TV antenna” appearance–rather, it will be flipped on its side, for vertical polarization.