Odds ‘n Sods:

Krys in Idaho spotted this: World Bank’s Zoellick: Food prices high until 2012

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Cheryl sent us this troubling article over at The Market Oracle: Fannie and Freddie Credit Implosions Are Too Big to Bail Out

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Anyone that owns both an AR-15 and an FN 5.7mm pistol might be interested in the new 5.7 AR upper receiver groups made by FN. Apparently FN is finally now shipping them –unless this seller is marketing vaporware.

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Some Deep Schumer: IndyMac ‘Bank run caused by Senator comments’

Note from JWR:

Today, with permission, we present a guest article by economist Richard Daughty (a.k.a. “The Mogambo Guru”). I have been a fan of his columns for many years. He has a hilarious writing style, with articles that are often peppered with The Mogambo Guru’s Gloriously Insightful and Articulate Whilst Jovial Acronyms De Jour (TMGGIAAWJADJ). I should also mention that I unashamedly filched one of his acronyms for my own use, changing it slightly to: Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR).

Banks Are Suffering From Their Own Stupidity, by The Mogambo Guru

The first half of the year is over, and now all those brokerage accounts and retirement accounts will be sending out statements to hapless account holders, and it is bad news in spades. This is why (I assume) the Plunge Protection Team (composed of the Federal Reserve, the Treasury and bank insiders) tried to drive the stock markets up on Monday, June 30 – to make those account statements look not quite as bad, and, hopefully, prevent people from dumping all of their stock and bond holdings in a desperate attempt to save something before the whole idiotic, fiat-currency, unlimited-fractional-banking thing just collapses.

Perhaps this drop in the market averages (as demand overwhelms supply) is what prompted John Williams at Shadowstats.com to write, “Overhanging the markets for a number of years has been the question as to when the major holders of excess U.S. dollars in the global financial system might look to dump those holdings. An opportunity for that dumping is at hand.”

The reason is that “Most central banks know that their unwanted dollar hoards are going to generate long-term losses, but the oil markets have opened up an opportunity to mitigate some of those losses. For the rest of the world, dollar dumping now would reduce inflation risks outside the United States.”

This means that “Over the longer term, U.S. equities, bonds and the greenback should suffer terribly, while gold and silver prices should boom.”
And it is not just him and me that are so gloomy, but a new study from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) noted that a plunge in the dollar “may happen”, as the dollar has slid 14% against the euro (EUR) in the past year, handing foreign investors in U.S. dollar assets “big losses measured in dollars, and still bigger ones measured in their own currency”, and which is making people so nervous that “a sudden rush for the exits cannot be ruled out completely.”

Bob Janjuah, analyst at the Royal Bank of Scotland, has also advised clients that “A very nasty period is soon to be upon us – be prepared,” which goes along with that bank’s warning that inflation has paralyzed the world’s central banks, and that of a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months looks more and more likely.

And the stupid banks (always the cause of all of economic troubles) are suffering from their own stupidity, and Bill Buckler of The-Privateer.com newsletter notes that “US Banks have suffered $US 391 billion of losses and write-downs from mortgage- related securities since the start of 2007, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg. US banks could lose another $US 300 billion on real estate loans during the year ahead.”

What makes this $691 billion loss so special is that “such losses could jeopardize balance sheets because the US banking system had only $US 1,350 billion of equity capital”. Hahaha! They’ve lost two-thirds of the banks capital! Hahaha! Morons!

Since all things are connected to all things, he says, “the sum of it all is that the entire US banking and financial system is so threadbare, fragile and short of capital that a collapse or crash in one place could knock the underpinnings out from under several other US financial sectors which would take even more down with them. A systemic crash – at any time – is today a distinct possibility.”

This is all in addition to the fact that morons who have kept investing in the American stock market are suffering losses, proving once again that the majority of investors must lose money over the long term. Spengler at atimes.com notes that when he says, “American equity markets show no real capital gains since 1997. That is, an American who bought the equivalent of the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index at $954 in January 1997 and sold today at $1,278 would have exactly the same number of inflation-adjusted dollars.”
Mr. Spengler concludes, “My advice to individual investors? Invest in some popcorn, because the next six months will be something to watch.”

Jim Sinclair of jsmineset.com is more humorously laconic when he says, “You can be sure something really stupid is about to happen.” He might have been referring to me, but I am usually stupid to start with, and so why would he just be mentioning it now? So, I think he means something more sinister. Much more sinister. And ugly. – July 7, 2008

Editor’s Note: Richard Daughty is general partner and COO for Smith Consultant Group, serving the financial and medical communities, and the editor of The Mogambo Guru economic newsletter – “an avocational exercise to heap disrespect on those who desperately deserve it.” The Mogambo Guru is quoted frequently in Barron’s, The Daily Reckoning and other fine publications. Click here to visit the Mogambo archive page.

Letter Re: Advice on Relocation–A Reader Concerned About Local Racism

Mr. Rawles:
I’m a single mother of an 11-year-old living in rural Colorado, with good food and supply stores. I share a house with another single woman who owns it, in a duplex apartment. We have wood heat and national forest out back. We have no firearms. I have no family and I’m on disability, but I have a registered nurse license and keep it up. I honestly do have a very hard time working a job, but would if I had to and realize it may come to that. I have been disabled since a car accident in 2004.
My question is related to race. I’m black. I feel horribly isolated out here and sad all the time. Even church people are cold and distant. I’m afraid to go out and take a walk with my child as people have screamed and thrown things at us. And Colorado isn’t even as bad some other areas. If something happens fast versus a slow emergency and people panic, I think these people would easily seek to hurt my daughter unless we keep hidden.

I want to move to Atlanta (my child was born there and her father is there who would help also), where I could make friends, have Christian fellowship with real Christians, and have some support (emotional) from others and have a chance of doing normal things such as dating.

The problem with Atlanta, is not a worry about gang members, who are actually people too–and in a minority, they would be quickly put down by people such as the Muslims and regular folk if they decide to be aggressive to their own (unlikely other than to other criminals and drug users, and even more unlikely that they’d travel)–but if it is a SHTF situation I worry that areas such as that would simply be cordoned off without supplies and the people within them left to die. I see the average Americans quite capable of this sort of evil (I equate them to Germans in the 1930s and early 1940s) because they don’t seem to think of us as truly :”people” unless we are “exceptions” in their eyes. As a Christian, I think these very prideful, affluent and braggart-type people are the sorts who will be destroyed by the Lord, no matter where they live and how safe they’ve tried to make themselves, not the majority in the inner city as their wisdom has it. The meek will inherit the earth.

My question is whether I should trust in the Lord and move to Atlanta or stick it out in what is an adequate retreat in rural Colorado given my circumstances? Ideally, I would prefer to leave the country, but don’t have the resources to do that.

JWR Replies: Colorado probably won’t be good for you, unless you can join an established “retreat” group there. I am sorry to read that even church people you know are cold and distant. (I would pray that most Christian retreat groups are essentially color blind. They’d be happy to have a member that was of any race if they had years of practical experience as a nurse.)

The Memsahib Adds: Your neighborhood sounds horrible! Is it just one horrible person who screams and throws things? Or are most of your neighbors awful? Whether you stay or move, as a single person without family, black or white, you ought to have as your highest preparedness priority to develop a support group. This may not be a full blown survival group. But it could be people who you could count on if you got snowed in, or your car broke down, or you ran out of firewood. I think that rural people expect mutual aid in times of trouble. Although because of your accident you are not able to work full-time as a nurse, can you volunteer part time as a ministry? For instance could you volunteer at a crisis pregnancy center, at a Vacation Bible School or Camp, or part time at a Christian school or daycare, as a nurse? This would be a way to serve the Lord and let the local community see your value as a nurse. If people in your community are made aware of your skills and training, race might become less of an issue. As for the ugly, ugly, ugly, individuals who don’t think of blacks as truly people, as you say, unless you are “exceptions” in their eyes, maybe they will see you as the exception, which will make you and your daughter safer. Perhaps in the course of volunteering you will develop friendships with the other volunteers. Helping others will help you with feelings of isolation and sadness. (But I have to say, I do think the church today is really failing in hospitality. For example, we have had people in our church say to us that they “would love to have over for a visit”, yet more than a full year has gone by before they set an actual date for the visit!) Another thought is: attend the Bible studies your church offers. When people get to know you as a person, maybe they will not see the color of your skin. It is really a shame that you have to work so hard just because your race. That isn’t the way it ought to be! But, I think this advice applies to any single person. The single person must work extra hard to immerse themselves into the community. You must go out of your way to attend all the community activities and do works of service for your neighbors and church members. Eventually they will start reciprocating. And maybe they will even come to rely on you for certain things. Bit by bit, you will become a part of their social network. And when things go bad they will feel compelled, out of their reciprocal relationship with you, to aid you in your time of trouble. God bless you and your daughter in your upcoming decision on relocation.

JWR Continues: If you do decide to move out of Colorado, then I’d recommend that you move to a more rural portion of the southeastern US than Atlanta! The city of Atlanta and its suburbs will likely be a war zone if and when bad times come. North Georgia is rural and has a lower population density than the communities around Atlanta, but it is already so impoverished that it might not do well in an economic depression. Rather, you should pick a more prosperous yet still agricultural area (preferably with mostly “truck farming”) and with a low population density, that is well away from urban sprawl. It should be well inland to be safe from hurricanes, but no in the primary Tornado Belt. (For example, western Tennessee would be a bad choice.) Just as important is finding a good church home–somewhere that you can be with like-minded folks, of any race.

One clue: Look for small towns (250 to 3,000 population) with one or more church that has a mixed race congregation. Those are the places where people will likely work together rather than divide along racial lines, in the event of a disaster.

Another clue: Look for churches with “Reformed” in their church name. They tend to have a high ratio of preparedness-minded individuals. (And usually sound doctrine, too!)

If you would consider relocating to join an existing retreat group that would value your skills as a nurse, then see the “Finding Others” static page at my site:

With current high food prices, truck farming areas are likely to do well in the next few years. You might consider some of the more rural counties in eastern Tennessee, Missouri, South Carolina, or perhaps north Alabama.

In your situation, since you are unarmed, you are probably best off joining a group where you can benefit from mutual security, and where you can put your medical skills good use with folks that will appreciate them and benefit from your knowledge and experience. Proceed with prayer!

Odds ‘n Sods:

Eric flagged this one: Britain urging return to wartime food frugality

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In doing research on dry climate gardening, Eric also came across a fascinating gardening technique called “Keyhole Gardening“

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SurvivalBlog warned you that this was coming: Fannie, Freddie shares in meltdown on insolvency fears

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Nate sent us the link to some commentary by Mark Gilbert at Bloomberg: Granddad, Tell How Capitalism Committed Suicide

Letter Re: Has Family Preparedness in the U.S. Declined Since 9/11/01?

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I first learned of your blog site through a New York Times article that ran back in April. Since then, I have spent a lot of time on your excellent site, and have followed many of your suggestions. I think the best you’ve made so far is that people read the book “Boston’s Gun Bible“. Mine is now a well thumbed rag doll, but the amount of knowledge contained within is impressive. My larder and defensive cache are coming along nicely.

I want to point out another New York Times article to you: Are You Ready for the Next Disaster? What’s most disturbing [about this article] is that there are actually people out there willing to admit that they are less prepared now then they were before 9/11! That really crystallizes the sort of folks I would include in the term “Golden Horde“–or as we call them in my house, “the zombies”.

Keep up the good work, and thanks for all of your efforts! – Archimedes

Two Letters Re: Some Transceiver Antenna Questions

Jim,
A few pieces of additional information about antennas: Quarter wave antennas are traditionally used for portable radios as they match the radio’s output impedance of 50 Ohms. By matching this impedance with an antenna of 50 Ohms you get maximum energy transfer. A 1/2 wavelength long antenna (twice as long as a 1/4 wave) has an impedance of several thousand Ohms and is not a suitable radiator unless you add some sort of impedance matching between the radio or the antenna. This can be in the form of a coil and capacitor or an antenna tuner. One advantage a 1/2 wave antenna (with a matching section) has is that it is less reliant upon a metal ground plane to function efficiently. VHF marine antennas are almost always 1/2 wave antennas.
Now, this is not to be confused with a 1/2 wave dipole which is really two 1/4 wave elements attached to each side of the coax (impedance = 75 Ohms and usually close enough to 50 Ohm to not create a problem). If mounted vertically, the lower element attached to the shield of the coax acts as the ground plane portion of the antenna. In fact, by adding a couple of additional elements to the shield side and positioning them at a 45 degree angle, this creates a 1/4 wave ground plane that has an impedance of 50 Ohms.
Sometimes you can get over an impedance mismatch by simply using a longer antenna with more capture area thereby delivering better reception. When transmitting though you should keep the antenna close to 50 Ohms to avoid damage to the radio’s transistor final amplifiers.
For more information that you could digest at one sitting, see the links at this site. — Rob at MURS radios

 

Jim,
Concerning the letter from “SF in Hawaii” on the topic of “Some Transceiver Antenna Questions”: Another factor in antenna selection is the impedance of the antenna at it’s resonate frequency. Almost all 2-way radios are designed for use with a 50-Ohm antenna system. Select the correct 50-Ohm impedance coaxial cable to connect your radio to an external antenna. Typical 50-Ohm coaxial cables are RG-58, RG-8, and RG-213. Do not use 75-Ohm coaxial cables designed for regular TV or cable television (CATV) systems! Typical 75-Ohm coaxial cables to avoid for 2-way radio use are RG-59 and RG-6. Special co-phasing harnesses made with RG-59 coaxial cable are used in special applications, such as dual CB antennas on a tractor-trailer truck, so that the resulting impedance between the two antennas is 50-Ohms at the connection to the CB radio. But for a single CB antenna, you need to stick with 50-Ohm coaxial cable.

Then there is the antenna itself. The 5/8-wavelength, 1/2-wavelength, and 1/4-wavelength antenna design tends to have an impedance close to 50-Ohms. A full-wavelength or other fraction thereof antenna is no where near 50-Ohms. That is why you never hear any other type of antenna mentioned. Because the radio is designed for a 50-Ohm antenna system, 50-Ohm coaxial cable is used along with either a 5/8, 1/2, or 1/4-wavelength antenna. For the maximum radiated signal, all three components (radio, coaxial cable, and antenna) must be near the same 50-Ohms of impedance. An impedance miss-match results in wasted power and possible damage to the transmitter section of the 2-way radio due to reflected transmitter power coming back down the coax from the antenna and going back into the radio.
Your correspondent in Israel may not be familiar with the American Citizen’s Band (CB) radio service. Various countries have created similar “CB” radio services, but the allocated frequencies can vary depending on each country. The CB radio band in the US is a range of High Frequency (HF) radio frequencies that lie between one of the shortwave broadcast bands and the Amateur Radio Service 10-Meter band. These frequencies are divided into 40 channels, separated by 10 kHz steps, from 26.965 to 27.405 MHz. The term “Meters” is a measurement of the wavelength of a radio signal at a given frequency. The 27 MHz CB band is 11-meters. The 28 MHz Amateur Radio Service (ham) band is 10-meters.

The length of an antenna is directly proportional to the radio wavelength used. The shorter the wavelength, the shorter the antenna. Convert 11-meters to feet and you end up with one wavelength being about 36-feet long at the 27 MHz CB frequencies. This is why a 1?2-wave CB base station antenna is typically 18-feet long, and a 1?4-wave mobile whip antenna is 9-feet long. The measurements of frequency, wavelength, and antenna length are all interrelated.

A general rule of thumb for mobile 2-Way radios is not to use ridiculously short antennas and not to mount them right next to the car body! A transmitting antenna needs to be free and clear of obstructions in order to radiate a signal effectively. As previously mentioned, a traditional 1?4-wave whip antenna for the CB band is 9-feet long (102-inches, plus a 6-inch shock spring). It is naturally resonant on the 27 MHz frequencies used by CB radios and contains no loading coils. But at highway speeds the long whip antenna tends to lean far back due to wind resistance, reducing the effective range of the signal being transmitted. Various CB antenna designs utilize “loading coils” to reduce the physical length of the antenna, while maintaining the equivalent electrical length of the 1/4-wave 9-foot whip. These designs are a compromise, since it is the whip portion of the antenna that radiates most of the signal – not the loading coil. The shorter antennas do a better job of staying vertically upright at highway speeds. The performance of a 60-inch CB antenna with a base loading coil is usually an acceptable compromise from the far more awkward 9-foot whip antenna. A variety of 4 to 7-foot long 5/8-wave fiberglass antennas with a wire “wrap” are also available and provide another good compromise over the full size whip antenna. Their thick fiberglass core does a better job of keeping the antenna vertical at highway speeds. The better ones have a “tunable tip” feature that allows the antenna to be fine tuned without having to use a hacksaw to cut off excess length. (Plus, once you cut it off – you can’t put it back!)

Whatever you do, don’t buy a cheap 19-inch long magnetic-mount CB antenna and expect it to equal the performance of the full size 9-foot whip! Those antennas have so much of the antenna length replaced by a loading coil that their effective range is usually measured in yards instead of miles. Those who prefer the performance of the 9-foot whip antenna for CB radio sometimes use fishing line tied between the antenna and the vehicle body to hold the antenna in the vertical position when driving down the highway. The appropriate strength or “test” of fishing line will keep the whip upright while going down the road, but still break if the antenna strikes an overhead obstruction such as a low tree branch. Quality CB antenna brands include K-40, Wilson, and Firestik.

A base station directional antenna (or “beam” antenna) such as the Yagi or the Log Periodic design not only needs to be correctly mounted with the correct polarization – it also has to be pointed at the direction you want to talk. This requires an electric antenna rotator with sufficient rating to handle the size of your antenna (TV antenna rotators are usually unable to handle a large directional “beam” antenna). If you only need to communicate between two specific locations, a properly oriented (polarized) beam antenna will be very effective. But for general purpose use, an omni-directional antenna, such as a 1/2-wave [vertical] base station antenna would be your best choice. – Sarge

Odds ‘n Sods:

Jesse and Eric both sent us this link to a WorldNetDaily article: Congress warned: U.S. risks ‘catastrophe’ in EMP attack. Eric asks: “Is your vehicle EMP safe? Do you have spare solid state bits stored in a Faraday Cage that is properly grounded? If you don’t then you could find yourself walking or pedaling. “

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The folks at CGW (one of our loyal advertisers) just launched a new updated web site, with more than 300 new products added to their already large inventory of gun parts, optics, knives, and tactical field gear. Some of the new items include Bushnell Elite Scopes and Red Dots, Glock Barrels, Leupold Mark2 & VX-L scopes, Maxpedition Versipaks, and AR-15 products from ARMS, Troy Industries, and Daniel Defense. I can vouch that CGW also does amazing gunsmithing. (We have three L1A1 rifles that were custom built by them, here at the ranch.) Check them out, and please mention SurvivalBlog when you place and order.

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Ben M. mentioned this article that refutes a recent assertion by sci-fi writer Robert Silverberg, over at Asimov’s: Analysis: recent panics over rare metal scarcity overblown

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Rob A. and Rick D. flagged this article: IndyMac Seized by U.S. Regulators Amid Cash Crunch. The piece begins: “IndyMac Bancorp Inc. became the second-biggest federally insured financial company to fail today after a run by depositors left the California mortgage lender short on cash.” As I’ve said before: The ongoing global credit collapse will lead to lots of bank runs. Be ready.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“And did they get you to trade
your heroes for ghosts?
Hot ashes for trees?
Hot air for a cool breeze?
Cold comfort for change?
And did you exchange
a walk on part in the war
for a lead role in a cage?” – Roger Waters, lyrics to Pink Floyd’s “Wish You Were Here” (1975)

Note from JWR:

There are just four days left in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction. The high bid is now at $370. This auction is for two cases (12 cans) of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans donated by Ready Made Resources, valued at $260, a course certificate for a four-day Bushcraft & Survival Course valued at $550, 25 pounds of green (un-roasted) Colombian Supremo coffee courtesy of www.cmebrew.com valued at $88.75, and a set of 1,600 U.S. Military Manuals, Government Manuals, and Civil Defense Manuals, Firearm Manuals on two CD-ROM disks, valued at $20. Please e-mail us your bids soon, in $10 increments. The auction ends on July 15, 2008.

Surviving an Age of Greed and Envy–Criminal Looters and Looters Under Color of Law

Several SurvivalBlog readers recently sent me a link to an article that ran in Britain’s The Independent newspaper: Britain declares war on food waste. So it seems that The Powers That Be have figured out a way to ration food under a novel pretense–the wastefulness of bulk packaging. (I guess they’ve never heard of freezers, dehydrators, and vacuum packing machines. We hardly waste a morsel, here at the ranch. The subtle subtext to this new “war on waste” article ties in to the Fabian Socialist mindset that is so pervasive in England. (And sadly, here in America, as well.) They want to control the masses. The very thought of self-sufficiency offends them. After all, they statist model thrives on the dependency of the electorate.

This discussion naturally leads a larger issue for those of us that are well-prepared. It is the issue of the haves and the have-nots, when times get tough. I’m a big advocate of charity. I stress charity in all of my writings, and I have stocked extra food here at the ranch just to dispense as charity. I have a “give until it hurts” attitude toward charity. But I’ll fight to my last breath deterring anyone that attempts to rob my family’s sustenance by force. That includes both lawless looters, and bureaucrats who might choose to illegally loot under color of law. Both sorts of looters have a common bankruptcy of morals and ethics. And, to my mind, both deserve the same reaction from those that they attempt to rob: the force that looters apply should be immediately met with proportional force.

With that said at the intellectual level, there comes the practical aspects of defending your property from looters. Obviously, there is a continuum of force and resultant continuum of fear. Force can be applied by either party. To use force righteously, you must not be the one who initiates the use of force. If someone breaks into your home and you genuinely fear that they have intent to do you harm, then you have the the right and responsibility to defend your life. In some jurisdictions, this right extends to the right to defend your property, and often there is no requirement to give ground to an intruder. Part of this is the much-debated “Castle Doctrine“, which is in effect in some of the United States. (One caveat: These laws vary considerably, so take the time research the peculiarities of the law and its application in your own jurisdiction. Do not consider anything I’m presenting here legal advice!)

Let’s face it, no matter what the law says, some people in positions of authority may misuse their authority and deprive other people of their rights and property, under color of law. This happened in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and it could happen again, regardless of legal protections under the Disaster Recovery Personal Protection Act of 2006 (and other laws.) History has shown that in extreme situations, laws are simply ignored and rights get trampled. How you will react in this event is up to you. Just don’t do anything that you would be embarrassed to stand up and testify to in court, later. (And keep in mind that it might come down to that!) I recommend that you prepare yourself, prayerfully, about how far you are willing to go to stand up for what is right and lawful.

BTW, speaking of legalized looting, I heard that Ayn Rand’s monumental novel Atlas Shrugged is finally being made into a movie, scheduled for release in 2009. Somehow, I have my doubts that Angelina Jolie can handle the role of Dagny Taggart. But who knows? She may surprise us with a stellar performance. If it results in more people “Gulching“, then I’ll consider the movie a success.

Letter Re: Learning from the Price of Canned Tuna

Hi Jim,
A while back on the blog you had a letter from a reader regarding the price increases that are coming down the pike (pun intended) for tuna. I was in a Wal-Mart the other day, and it looks like those increases are coming sooner rather than later.

Two weeks ago, I purchased a bunch of Wal-Mart house brand tuna packed in oil, 6 ounce cans, for $0.53 per can. Yesterday, I was in Wal-Mart again, and the same product is now $0.74 per can. That is a price increase of 39% in a fortnight! I’m happy to say that I laid in my three year supply (over 300 cans, mostly from Costco) before the price jump. Thanks for your counsel on this.

I have been stocking up on everything, because I figure it’s not going to get any cheaper. I have amassed in two months, starting from no food storage, a 1-year supply of “regular” rotatable food, and a three year supply of 30-year storable food. It wasn’t easy or cheap, the time required was like having a half-time job for the last two months) but I did it. I strongly encourage everyone to stock up now, while there is still food to be had. All of the major [long term storage food] canneries are running on 8 to 12 week backlogs. And I think those will only get worse as the number of people who decide to start preparing increases. Best, – A.L.

Real Estate Market Update for Northwestern Montana, by Viola Moss

We have, just in the past six months, transitioned from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market in northwestern Montana. Much of this is due to the impact of stricter bank mortgage lending requirements. Many [previously commonplace ] investors and types of loans are now nowhere to be seen. I heard just this week that the lenders are requiring the appraisers to go back only two months (instead of six months) for comparatives. This is nearly impossible with the sales spiraling downward. This is quite a reversal from just two years ago, when we didn’t have comps because the prices were going up so fast due to demand and lack of inventory!

Also contributing to the “Buyer’s Market” transition is that many buyers have to sell their home from whence they are coming as their market has long become stagnant.
Those who can afford it and have been “shopping” for a retreat the past two years have been way too picky in their expectations for their money and privacy. Many have been shopping for several years and now realize the pickings are few, especially for properties without restrictive covenants to raise animals and have a little farmstead. We have a lot more inventory but only about 5% is covenant free for such use.

The other thing is that those who want waterfront or surface water will pay more as it is primo and getting more scarce, especially without restrictive covenants. Maybe one would want to address having a well with a hand pump and consider that the water is more easily protected from contaminants (but I will leave this recommendation to Mr. Rawles). Many good properties at dropping prices are passed up for this one reason.

Those who are demanding total privacy and can’t afford a lot of land to allow such need to understand that only about 8% of our land is privately owned. (The good news to this is that the wildlife is abundant and one could easily bug out to the woods.) Therefore, parcels are usually grouped together for private purchase and use. So if you can get a property with a forest boundary or near bigger parcels for privacy that is as realistic as one will get. There may be a very few rare finds of “totally surrounded by forest” properties; but, then they are not accessible year round and may have to deal with US Forest Service road agreements. Would this cause one to be blocked in or out in the near future? I think looking for a good sustainable neighborhood could be of benefit if lieu of that perfect private piece, especially for those who can’t afford a lot of acreage.

Also, larger parcels, even if you could afford them are getting fewer and fewer because they have been subdivided for more affordable land for buyers. These usually come with the new restrictive covenants and have caused the off balance of covenanted lands versus non-covenant.

Don’t be fooled by the pictures on the MLS. There is nothing like actually looking at a piece and seeing how the “lay of the land” is. One could get 47 acres with creeks at the end of the road but it may not be always accessible or where you would want to build is on the corner of the property right next to the abutting owners summer cabin! The terrain and lay out can make all the difference in what you think you might want or not want.

Another warning: If a property is priced really well, then there is usually a reason. Yes, sometimes a seller actually prices something to sell. But be sure to know what the well depths are and especially, in this country, find out how much the normal the spring water run-off/melt will be and affect the property. Your 20 acres may only have 5 acres of useable land year round.

Many have not made the moves and changes in location and lifestyle needed for what’s coming and are finding it is now “almost too late.” They wanted their cake and ice cream too. One foot in both sides of reality and disillusionment. I envision that many will bail out of their current places and take what monetary resources they can squeeze out of to get to refuge areas, like here [in northwestern Montana]. They will abandon what they have in the cities and coastal areas when they realize it is too late; but, maybe think they can get out by a hair’s breadth. Hopefully, they can settle for 2nd, 3rd, or 4th best before disaster strikes!

Another problem we see are buyers and their significant others not agreeing that something has to be done! One will know and want to move now or acquire a bug out retreat; yet, the spouse or children or parents don’t! I implore those who can foresee what is coming, to go ahead and do what they know is needed. Otherwise, your loved ones will have nowhere to run to. They will be grateful. The worst that could happen, is that everything turns around and you live a more crime free, pollution free, healthier lifestyle and environment for you and your family. You can always go back to Egypt — wherever that may be for you. Yes, you may sense a bit of personal prejudice towards this part of the country. I left my comfortable “Egypt” in 2004. <grin>

For others, they have actually lost almost everything due to job loss, natural disasters, et cetera. They had a boat come by to rescue them and said, “God will send me help.” They finally realized they don’t need a helicopter to get them out and they need to move now! They know they need to move in faith regardless of the obstacles now: though with much less than they had anticipated but thank goodness they are here or on their way.

Again, this is a prime location for people to nestled into and hunker down for the days to come. Even if you have to have a neighbor or community, you will find that the majority of these mountain people are prepared much more so than other locations in the United States. Viola Moss. E-mail: mtnmama@vmre.net Web site: www.vmre.net

JWR Adds: Be sure to take a look at the growing list of properties and agents available at SurvivalBlog’s spin-off web site: www.SurvivalRealty.com.