The Grand Illusion: G8 – 1 = Cold War II?

Perhaps Anatoliy Golitsyn was right. He was a high level Soviet defector that predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union, claiming that perestroika and glasnost were charades that had been planned for decades by the Soviet-era KGB leadership to strategically deceive the West into thinking that we had “won” the Cold War. Some evidence: the recent Russian invasion of Georgia, Russia’s nuclear threats against Poland, and Putin’s hints of positioning ICBMs in Cuba. (As I’ve written before, history doesn’t exactly repeat itself, but it often rhymes.) Was Golitsyn right? The West may have been the victim of the greatest dezinformatisaya (disinformation) campaign in world history. If they’ve pulled off an illusion this grand, Sun Tzu would be proud. (Some 25 centuries ago, he wrote: “I will force the enemy to take our strength for weakness, and our weakness for strength, and thus will turn his strength into weakness.”)

I can foresee that the recent Russian campaign of brinkmanship will continue for months or perhaps years. This may very well escalate, degenerating into a renewed cold war of tit-for-tat escalation–including both diplomatic moves and military posturing. Likely maneuvers for the West might include further demands, economic embargoes, troop redeployments, offshore asset seizures, and diplomatic sanctions. One crucial sanction might be removing Russia from the G8 — reverting it to the Group of Seven (G7) Nations. We might even soon see something similar to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. And from there it is no great stretch of imagination to envision the cold war tipping over into a genuine hot war–nothing short of World War III.

I believe that western intelligence analysts spotted the Russian troop buildup on the Georgian border many months ago and predicted an invasion. It is noteworthy that the majority of the US “advisers” in Georgia were Special Forces (SF or “Green Beret”) troops. Their premier specialty is training guerilla fighters. (Although they are better known publicly as counter-guerilla trainers.) There is a high likelihood that the SF were training Georgian “stay behind” guerillas, in anticipation of a total invasion and takeover of Georgia, by Russia. So things might even get worse in Georgia. Instead of just South Ossetia, the Russians may want the whole enchilada.

But stepping back from these tumultuous events for a moment, it is more likely that we are simply witnessing a spate of Russian saber-rattling. This may pass, and the international scene may regain normalcy. However, I don’t rule out the possibility that the recent events could presage something far more serious.

What then, are the implications for well-prepared American families if this escalation were to continue into a new cold war? Based on the experience of the War on Terror (WoT), I predict that any of the following could occur:

  1. Even greater shortages of storage food and other key preparedness logistics.
  2. Increased border security and scrutiny of Americans leaving or reentering the United States. This may have a profound effect on anyone that has, or is considering establishing an off-shore retreat.
  3. A rapid escalation in the price of gold and a coincident collapse in confidence in the United States Dollar.
  4. A new draft or other some form of forced universal military conscription.
  5. Widespread shortages and rationing of food, fuel, and other key goods.
  6. Demonization of anyone making substantive logistical preparations for their families (under the mischaracterization of “hoarding”), regardless of when and how someone stocked up. (Don’t let the mass media’s twisted Orwellian logic fool you. By stocking up well in advance, you have actually helped to mitigate any future shortages.)
  7. New laws or executive orders covering a plethora of nouveau ‘crimes’ including: private possession of a huge list of chemical “precursors”; bans on exotic “paramilitary” ammunition (such as tracer, AP, and incendiary); bans on owning unlicensed amateur radio equipment, night vision equipment, and body armor; criminalization of private hard encryption; banning of large caliber rifles, and so forth.

I urge all SurvivalBlog readers to redouble their efforts to keep a low profile in their communities and their presence on the Internet. If the Cold War reemerges with the same intensity as the Cuban Missile Crisis, we may very well soon enter an age of deception and betrayal that could sweep up innocents as well as malefactors. It is both wise and prudent to avoid creating a ‘paper trail’, ‘electronic footprints’, or ‘cookie crumbs’ when acquiring storage food, ammunition, night vision gear, controversial books, and various logistics. Avoid using credit cards and avoid making purchases from major Internet vendors such as Amazon.com and Buy.com. These are the ones most likely to keep detailed records and also the most likely to be asked to turn them over to authorities.

You should concentrate on making your purchases from small “Mom & Pop Operations”, and from private parties. Pay cash and pick up merchandise personally, as much as possible. If you are buying other than face to face, then pay via money order rather than by personal check or credit card. Don’t leave your name or address. If it is legal in your state, buy guns only on the secondary market, directly from private parties. (Be sure to consult your state and local laws!).

I also encourage all SurvivalBlog readers to use Anonymizer Safe Surfing Suite , Scroogle.org (for web searches), TrueCrypt, PGP, and other Internet privacy software and services to lower your profile. All of this might sound slightly paranoid, but in my estimation a higher degree of privacy is, again, wise and prudent, even if times aren’t likely to get any worse than they already are.

I’d appreciate input from readers about what they would consider an essential checklist of preparations for a new international crisis, or, may God forbid, for World War III.

Letter Re: Advice on Preparedness for Travelers?

Mr. Rawles,

I just picked up two rugged 4GB USB memory sticks at a rather good price of $15 each. ($19.99 less a mail-in rebate of $5.) Your readers might consider them for their emergency kits to store scanned in copies of their legal documents, insurance, investments and personal records and photos.

This isn’t bullets and butter but might just prove more valuable than both when trying to get a replacement social security card or passport. The 10 year warranty is awfully nice so keep your receipt. Maybe you should scan that and save it on the memory stick too!

If your readers would also be interested in a free encryption software they should consider trying TrueCrypt for Windows, Mac and Linux. – Neal

Odds ‘n Sods:

“Bee Prepared” sent us this article from The Guardian: Honeybee deaths reaching crisis point. One in three of UK’s honeybees did not survive winter and spring. Pollination of fruit and vegetables is at risk.

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From a farm bulletin, courtesy of reader MK: ShadeTreeConversions.net.

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Cheryl N. found this: Merrill Lynch: Credit Crisis is Broad, Deep and Global

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Cheryl N. also sent this, from Trident Military: World Camouflage Catalog. It makes handy reference.

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Also from Cheryl N.: US Home Foreclosures Increase 55% and Estimated 1,300 Houses Foreclosed in California Every Day

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Almighty God…I yield thee humble and hearty thanks that thou has preserved me from the danger of the night past, and brought me to the light of the day, and the comforts thereof, a day which is consecrated to thine own service and for thine own honor. Let my heart, therefore, Gracious God, be so affected with the glory and majesty of it, that I may not do mine own works, but wait on thee, and discharge those weighty duties thou requirest of me. Give me grace to hear thee calling on me in thy word, that it may be wisdom, righteousness, reconciliation and peace to the saving of the soul in the day of the Lord Jesus. Grant that I may hear it with reverence, receive it with meekness, mingle it with faith, and that it may accomplish in me, Gracious God, the good work for which thou has sent it. Bless my family, kindred, friends and country, be our God and guide this day and for ever for His sake, who lay down in the Grave and arose again for us, Jesus Christ our Lord, Amen." – The Prayer Journal of George Washington

Notes from JWR:

Congrats to Tom H., the high bidder in the recent SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction. Today we start a new auction for another mixed lot that includes: Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried foods in #10 cans, (donated by Ready Made Resources–a $320 value), a NukAlert radiation detector, (donated by KI4U–a $160 value), a Wilson Tactical COP tool, (donated by Choate Machine and Tool Company, a $140 value), a DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books–a $25 value).

The auction ends on September 15, 2008. The opening bid is just $50. Please e-mail us your bid.

Today we present a guest editorial from Craig R. Smith, the president and CEO of Swiss America Trading Corporation. His firm has been one of SurvivalBlog’s most loyal advertisers. They have a great reputation for trustworthiness, reliability, and responsive customer service. This article also recently appeared in WorldNetDaily.

Connecting the Dots on Our Fragile Economy, by Craig R. Smith

Recent events in the financial markets have renewed concerns that should be considered by any American who has worked, paid taxes, invested and saved for the future.
It is no secret that America is swimming in debt. Currently the U.S national debt is $9.6 trillion. That is $47,000 for every adult or $94,000 for couples. One can only imagine the future burden that will put on taxpayers as the politicians continue to print money to pay off everything from health care to foreclosed mortgages. No level of taxation will support this kind of unbridled spending.
We are now spending money at a rate that is ridiculous and there is no end in sight. Predictions are that by the end of 2008 America will be running a $500 billion deficit and soon the national debt will exceed $10 trillion. And while this level of debt should have every American demanding the immediate halt to most spending, it has not. In fact, more and more Americans are looking for the government to spend more money fixing their personal problems.

In an unprecedented move, the Federal Reserve, in cooperation with the Treasury Department, bailed out the investment bank Bear Stearns in March. For the first time ever, the Fed opened the discount window to an investment bank issuing $35 billion of financing for the beleaguered institution. Then in the dark of Sunday night, the Fed, with the complete cooperation of the Treasury, set up a sale of Bear Stearns to a commercial bank, JP Morgan, with all assets being applied to JP Morgan’s balance sheet while only increasing liabilities for the first billion in potential losses.
But it gets worse.

Within weeks, the confidence in the financial system and American banks in particular had so dramatically deteriorated, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission adopted a rule that forbade naked short-selling of financial stocks such as JP Morgan, Wachovia, Bank of America, Citibank, HSBC and Well Fargo, just to name a few. This meant an investor who had no confidence in a financial stock could no longer sell the stock in a short sale expecting its value to drop – at which time they would buy it at a lower price and fill the sale.
Keep in mind, this was still a perfectly acceptable practice with other stocks – just not the “financials.” If that single move did not send shivers up every American investor’s spine, then it’s hard to say what would.

The market was so vulnerable to a massive sell-off and further deterioration of bank-stock values that the free market was abandoned for a government-controlled market and the folks were almost grateful that a crisis had been averted.

Grateful? We should have been outraged. But then again, many in America don’t really want free markets. They want the government to protect their assets. Do we believe the government has been so successful in managing the finances of government that we now want them to manage the financial markets?

Weeks later, Congress passed H.R. 3221, “The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.” This allowed Congress to bail out the 400,000 homeowners who are facing foreclosure, while saving Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs – the same companies that arguably caused most of this mess to begin with.
The president, who vowed to veto the bill, caved and signed it. It allows, by statutory limit, the spending of as much as $800 billion, which will bring the national debt to potentially $10.6 trillion.

Again, more government spending to save whom? Homeowners who fell on tough times? Or speculators who were trying to play the game and the banks that financed them? You got it. The banks and the speculators.

This bill will do nothing more than bail out the very people who created the mess – at taxpayer expense. What homeowner in their right mind, if given the choice to walk away from a home that has dropped by 40 percent in value or refinance it at the original value, will opt to refinance? This bill will directly place billions of dollars into banks in order to clean up and rehab foreclosed properties which will be put right back on the market at reduced prices. Once again, all at the taxpayers’ expense.

It will be a virtual repeat of the Resolution Trust Corporation bailout in the late ’80s – with one difference. There was a standard held for credit in the ’80s. This last loose-money binge was created by lending anyone who could breathe and sign the paperwork cheap money to buy a home – regardless of the reason why.
The bottom line: To “save” the system that was clearly melting down as a result of plummeting real estate values and frozen credit markets, the Fed and the Treasury Department will allow the creation of billions and billions, if not trillions, of dollars which will be added to the national debt. This will further deteriorate the long-term value of the U.S. dollar and ultimately threaten Americans’ quality of life through increases in the cost of living. Once again, the American taxpayer and saver will foot the bill – all the while watching the price of everything from food to college tuition increase at an alarming pace.

The markets are well aware of the effect these moves will have on the dollar and have prepared accordingly. The international markets have long ago lost their appetite for American debt. The days of foreign countries and businesses lending us the money necessary to survive have ceased. Now they look to buy our businesses, our real estate and other assets. They are not willing to take a promise to be paid in the future with dollars that are constantly diminishing in value.

With the stock market having experienced six minus-300-point rallies, it is clear we are in a bear market for stocks. Bull markets never experience such rallies according to the chief economist at Merrill Lynch. Such rallies are inherent in bear markets and this market is clearly in a bear mood. Earnings are shrinking, unemployment is increasing and raw material costs are through the roof. Not to mention skyrocketing energy and healthcare costs.

The once-free American markets that were the envy of the world have become government-controlled markets, out of necessity for the time being. The powers that be at the Fed and Treasury can ill-afford a breakdown of the system. News reports of runs on the Indy Mac bank were reminiscent of the 1929 crash and were quickly bandaged to stop the bleeding of public confidence. And while the immediate symptom received treatment, the underlying disease was ignored. All shareholder equity, for those who invested in Fannie and Freddie, should have been wiped out. The market should have been left to heal on its own. But instead, the Fed placed the government version of a Band-Aid on a hemorrhaging wound. Real treatment of the problem would have been more than the market could bear.

In the last week or so, we have seen the U.S. dollar strengthen against most world currencies. Oil prices have subsided back to the $116/barrel level, but make no mistake about it: It will not last. The long-term prospect for the dollar remains tenuous at best and the moment the factories go back to work in China after the Olympics, oil consumption will return and the lower dollar and higher oil scenario will be back in full swing. Any relief in either of these areas is an opportunity to get out.

So don’t go out and pop the corks on the champagne bottle just yet. Remain vigilant. In the 1990s, one could place profit ahead of liquidity and safety. Today, that would be financial suicide. Liquidity should be the No. 1 priority: Can I get my money if I want or need it? Second is safety: Are my investments in a relatively safe area of the market? Are they insured if they are in the bank? Third, look to see a profit. Low interest rates are a sure loss, but then, you are paying for safety and liquidity.

The best advice I can offer right now is to stay very well diversified. The long-term portion of one’s money can be in stocks. A portion in real estate. A portion in mutual funds. A portion in bonds and cash. However, a key investment component would be holdings in gold, knowing this is an investment in your control, not a bank’s, one that’s private, portable and potentially very profitable, and one that has long been a reliable anchor in a financial storm and insurance against an uncertain future.

As Will Rogers once said, “I am not as concerned about the returns on my investment as I am the return of my investment.”

Future writings in this space will discuss the geopolitical events that may change things at a moment’s notice. For instance, the threat of Iran taking control of the Strait of Hormuz – and 30 percent of the world’s oil supply – is real. Russia, China, India and Brazil (the so-called “BRIC” economies) and their growing economies are fully ready to compete and win in the battle against America for world customers.
Are we prepared for all this, and more?

These are very uncertain times, most of it out of your control. That is why the only investment strategy that will provide a good night’s sleep is one strictly based on a well-diversified financial portfolio. (Please feel free to speak to one of the representatives at Swiss America, who can help inform you on all the latest trends and options, so your hard-earned dollars are protected against all possible scenarios.)

Odds ‘n Sods:

I was recently interviewed by Kayleen Schaefer of Details magazine. She is looking for other preppers that would be willing to be interviewed. In particular, she’d like to find someone living in tech Baltimore, Maryland or Washington DC area that would not mind having one of the magazine’s photographers photograph of their food storage shelves. They’ve promised not to publish anything that would reveal identities or locales. Please contact Kayleen via e-mail if you’d like to be interviewed.

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Thanks to Chris W. for spotting this: Ready for Disaster? ‘Preparedness Movement’ Members Say They Are

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From reader Tim P.: Researchers fear other [H9N2] bird flu virus may cause pandemic

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If you haven’t seen it yet, be sure to check out US Army “Ranger Rick” F. Tscherne’s web site. He has some great survival tips and tricks.

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Cheryl sent this: The outrage in your credit card’s fine print. Cheryl predicts that credit card debt will trigger the next big crisis.

Notes from JWR:

Today is the last day in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction. The high bid is now at $580. This auction is for a big mixed lot: a NukAlert radiation detector, donated by KI4U–a $160 value), a DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books–a $25 value), and the following package of survival gear all kindly donated by CampingSurvival.com: One case of MREs, one pack of water purifications tablets, a bottle of colloidal silver, a fire starter, a bottle of potassium iodate tablets, an emergency dental kit, a pack of “Shower in a bag” bath wipes, and one messenger bag to pack it in. The auction ends at midnight (eastern time) tonight–Friday, August 15, 2008. Please e-mail us your bid.

Letter Re: Questions on Root Cellaring

Hi Jim,
I don’t recall reading a specific article about root cellaring, specifically long term storage of vegetables. Is there a point and time when potatoes go to sprout that you can no longer safely eat them? What about the best overall temp to store in and yes or no to burlap bags? What about other veggies?
Another tidbit was on Fox and Friends house call portion of the show they talked with an expert and outlined the extreme benefits of eating broccoli and broccoli sprouts with their extreme cancer killing properties and the vitamins in the vegetable. On a side note, I did not realize that broccoli ounce for ounce contains more calcium than milk! Can broccoli be kept in a root cellar for an extended time?
What about rodent control in the root cellar? Is there an optimum humidity level for the cellar?
(on a personal note, have you ever done or heard of anyone whom has bought a Bison brand hand pump? The company is located in Minnesota. They offer a pump that goes into the existing well casing without removal of the original pump.) Was curious if these were quality. www.bisonpumps.com
Thank You So Much – The Wanderer

JWR Replies: To start, I highly recommend the book Root Cellaring, by Mike and Nancy Bubel.

In answer to one of your questions: Broccoli and cauliflower do not generally store well in a root cellar unless the ai temperature is in the 30s, and even then, it storage life is limited–perhaps a few weeks at most.

In a root cellar, root crops, nuts, and fruits such as apples store the best. The temperature should be as low as possible, without dipping below freezing. The ambient ground temperature will dictate the cellar’s air temperature. Unless someone lives in Alaska or inland Canada, I recommend digging root cellar quite deep (with at least three feet of soil for insulation) , putting it on the shady side of your house, and installing a double set of (“airlock”) type doors with plenty of hard foam insulation.

Fairly high humidity (90 to 95%) is actually a good thing in root cellars. Without it, many stored food will gradually desiccate. Very high humidity is not a major issue unless it high enough, and the temperature low enough for the air to condense each time the door is opened. In places where the humidity is that high (near 100%), it is probably best to have the entrance to the root cellar inside a house (by way of an interior basement door, rather than an exterior entrance.) In many parts of the country, you will want to supplement the natural humidity by placing a thin layer of gravel on the floor, and a occasionally sprinkling it with water. You should monitor both the temperature and the humidity (the latter with a hygrometer) in your root cellar.

I don’t have any personal experience with the Bison brand pumps. Perhaps a reader that has used one would care to comment. OBTW, they should be available from Lehmans.com

Letter Re: Advice on M1A Rifle Scopes and Scope Mounts

Mr. Rawles,

Thanks for the great articles. I have been able to check out your web site for several months, and have recently been able to purchase thru private channels an M1A (Smith Enterprise receiver) battle rifle. It came with a McMillan fiberglass stock and two 20 round”W”-marked magazines. I have purchased four more of the same magazines through Cheaper Than Dirt, and wanted to know if you had any recommendations on scopes and scope mounts. There seem to be a lot of cheap import scope mounts, but many customer reviews are mixed. Also, with this type of weapon, a poorly made scope will show fast. Most US military scopes are designed around the .223 (5.56mm NATO) round. Any idea on where to start with this?

I should let you know that I have land that will be used for my retreat. I will be putting a cabin together come Spring of 2009, and the land is lightly treed rolling hills. I plan to use this firearm as a fixed defensive weapon, since it is fairly heavy compared to my other firearms. I have the heavy steel bipod for this, and with the soon to be compliment of six 20rd magazines and 22 stripper clips, this should make for a decent piece. I have seen Yukon night vision scopes, but have no idea about the quality. Any advice would help a bunch. Best Regards,- J.M.R.

JWR Replies: I recommend that you buy at least two more, and preferably four more magazines, to be ready for truly Schumeresque times. The original “W” stamped magazines were made by Winchester. But be advised that there have been some reports of faked “W” and “BRW S-1”–marked M14 magazines currently on the market. Because the markings on these replicas area almost identical to the originals, the only way to be absolutely sure that you are getting the genuine article is if you buy ones that are still in the original government issue VCI paper wrapper, with military contract markings. The good news, however, is that the functional reliability of the replicas is just as good as the originals. But collector-purists would be incensed to find that they bought fakes. (For details on M14/M1A magazines, see my FAQ on the subject.)

I highly recommend the ARMS #18 scope mount. The Springfield Armory (commercial) steel scope mounts are also excellent. In my experience, even their early generation (single thumb screw) mounts are “bomb proof” at holding zero. I’ve owned each, and I have no complaints about either of them. I’ve heard that Smith Enterprise M1A mount is also excellent, but I’ve never tried one.

Avoid the cheap imported M14 scope mounts .I have read that many of them have either inconsistent quality control (dimensional) problems, return to zero problems, or both.

For scopes, I recommend any of the following:

Leatherwood ART scopes.

Leupold Mark 4 (PR LR) 4.5-14×40 Mil-Dot scopes. (These require 30mm diameter rings.)

Trijicon Trophy Point scopes (with tritium-lit reticle)

AN/PVS-4 Starlight scopes, such as those remanufactured by STANO Components, Inc. (Get an original USGI M14 Starlight scope mount.)

I do not recommend most of the inexpensive starlight scopes made in Russia. They have notoriously uneven quality control and poor image quality. For more details on night vision gear, see this letter in the SurvivalBlog archives.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Pete in New Hampshire found this web site while preparing to test his Bug Out Bag equipment in the field. Pete mentioned “It allows you to build customized topographical maps of the area you pick and if you pay $20 they will mail it to you laminated, ready for field use.”

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This latest bit of Nanny State meddling doesn’t bode well for those of us that like to formulate our own soap or otherwise do any home chemistry: Home Science Under Attack In Massachusetts. (A hat tip to “Crusher” for sending the link.)

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Merry sent us this article: Crime-ridden Arkansas town expands 24-hour curfew

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Cheryl found this one for us: Banks’ Subprime Losses Top $500 Billion on Writedowns

Note from JWR:

There is just one day remaining in the current SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction. The high bid is still at $500. This auction is for a big mixed lot: a NukAlert radiation detector, donated by KI4U–a $160 value), a DVD of 480 E-books on Alternative Energy (donated by WK Books–a $25 value), and the following package of survival gear all kindly donated by CampingSurvival.com: One case of MREs, one pack of water purifications tablets, a bottle of colloidal silver, a fire starter, a bottle of potassium iodate tablets, an emergency dental kit, a pack of “Shower in a bag” bath wipes, and one messenger bag to pack it in. The auction ends tomorrow–Friday, August 15, 2008. Please e-mail us your bid.

Note from The Memsahib:

Many thanks for your e-mails of love and encouragement. Your prayers are greatly appreciated. I am now feeling better each day, and am uplifted by your heartfelt prayers!