Economics and Investing:

Steven L. sent this bit of good economic news: Cabela’s shares surge on gun sales

Eric S. sent this snippet from Bloomberg : “Gold is likely to more than quadruple from the current level of $986 per ounce currently to $3,500 in 2010, he said.”

Reader “Jericho Jo” flagged this article from New Zealand: European chiefs propose global rules (for world economies). A quote: “Even the global crisis and a change of Administration may not be enough to convince the US to hand over its autonomy.”I see the US as wary of giving away powers of oversight and regulation,” said Robert Brusca of Fact And Opinion Economics in New York.”

HPD set this item from Bloomberg: AIG Seeks More Aid, May Lose $60 Billion, CNBC Says (Apparently the $150 billion in taxpayer dollars already spent wasn’t enough…)

Items from The Economatrix:

Full Text of the Treasury Statement on Banks

UK: Top Economist Calls for 5-6% Inflation to Help Ease Crisis JWR’s comment: Sure! We’ll get 5% inflation, and then 50% inflation, and then…

Gold Hits Record Against Euro on Fear of Zimbabwean-style Response to Bank Crisis

US Cannot Go Back to Old Ways, Top Economist Says “Fixing the banks is not really the key to unlocking the demand side.”

Financial Job Losses Accelerating Says UN Agency ” …the combined New York metropolitan area expected to lose up to 100,000 financial services jobs…”

EU Leaders Back Sweeping Financial Regulations Any bets on whether or not private banking privacy will suffer, in the process?

US Gasoline Prices Edge Up to $1.94

Bernanke: Recession May End this Year; Stocks Climb JWR’s Comment: And tortoises may learn to fly later in 2009, as well!

Consumer Confidence Plunges to New Low In February

Home Prices Post Highest Annual Decline in 4Q

World’s Economies Tumbling Like Dominoes

The Long and Short of It

Food for Thought (The Mogambo Guru)

Warning for the West as Crisis Spills onto Streets

Odds ‘n Sods:

Thanks to Bryce L. for sending this: Expert: Climate Change Could Mean ‘Extended World War’. There is a huge divergence of opinion on this issue. But consider that even if there is no climate change, government over-reaction or misdirected “solutions” could cause some serious problems.

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This is one of those risks’ that I was warning about: Arkansas Times Publishes List of Arkansas State Concealed Carry Holders. (A hat tip to Scotty and Stacie in Arkansas for the link.)

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Pete in Florida sent the link to this piece by Glenn Beck; We Surround Them – The Unveiling

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Reader GRB mentioned that Cansolidators and Harvest canned food FIFO storage systems (recently reviewed by SurvivalBlog’s Editor at Large, Mike Williamson) are available at a discount at Costco online.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"He that suffers his life to be taken from him by one that hath no authority for that purpose, when he might preserve it by defense, incurs the Guilt of self murder since God hath enjoined him to seek the continuance of his life, and Nature itself teaches every creature to defend itself." – From a 1747 sermon given in Philadelphia, as quoted by C. Asbury in The Right to Keep and Bear Arms in America: The Origins and Application of the Second Amendment to the Constitution, (an unpublished doctoral thesis in history, available at University of Michigan Graduate Library), pp. 39-40

Product Review: Shelf Reliance Cansolidator – Addendum, by Michael Z. Williamson

After my successful test of ShelfReliance’s Cansolidator, I acquired their full-size Harvest system that holds up to 600 cans. The Harvest comes in two cartons, a tall heavy one with the metal structure, and a big, double-walled carton with the can racks. The instructions are included, and quite straightforward. One or two pictures weren’t as clear as they could be, but a look at the components straightened everything out.

While I was able to put the system together myself, I’d recommend have a second person to assist. It’s not particularly complicated, just large. The steel frame slots together with keyhole fasteners, and they’re quite snug. I used a rubber mallet to get them together. This is a good thing, in my opinion; it means it won’t come apart easily. The tracks are thick, rigid plastic. You’ll want to ensure you have plenty of space to assemble this beast: it takes access from at least two sides to get the racks locked in, lined up and properly spaced, and I recommend the caster upgrade–Once it’s in filled and in place, it is not going to move otherwise.

This system is well-designed. It takes most standard sizes of can, small, medium and #10, and can be customized to take various proportions of them. It adjusts for cans as short as tuna cans, and for the tall ready-to-serve size soup cans. It takes standard peanut butter and condiment jars, too. I would recommend a padded underlayer if you plan to store glass jars, just in case. Each rack holds about 15 standard cans (the larger racks being proportionally deeper), but I was able to bump the rear cans on the feed rail, and double stack a couple of extras. The tracks are very
strong.

Included is a set of magnetic labels for most common canned products, plus some blanks for making your own, plus some specialty ones for canned long term food (shelf life up to 30 years) that Shelf Reliance sells. (I haven’t tried these yet, but their prices are quite reasonable and competitive and their quality so far in my tests is excellent.) This, and the open design makes it very easy to find what you need, and keep track of the amount on hand. First In, First Out (FIFO) means all you have to do is see what’s low, buy more and feed it in from the front.

Pluses:
Well-designed, modular, adjustable for most cans and several other containers, sturdy, compact, easy to use, easy to assemble, fairly clear documentation, made in America, half the price of some competing systems. Shelfreliance is happy to customize parts for you if you want to store more #10-size cans, or more standard cans, or fit the unit into a narrower or shallower space. They also sell component pieces individually for expansion, and have “scratch and dent” sales for those on a budget.

Minuses:
No actual negatives so far. Just be aware that it takes a while (a couple of hours) to put together just because it’s so large–there are 31 racks on the standard model. You really should buy the casters if
you ever plan to move it. – Michael Z. Williamson

Letter Re: Christianity and Self-Defense

Mr. Rawles,
First of all, thank for providing the incredible resource of Survivalblog. I have only been a reader for a few months, but it has been an eye-opening experience. I was raised in a conservative, Christian home and my father was only a “casual” gun owner. At first, when reading the opinions on your blog, I was skeptical about owning firearms. I had never owned a gun in my life and only shot one a couple times. In actuality, I had never really thought too much about guns. However, after reading your reconciliation of Christianity and self-defense and my own study of the Scriptures, I determined that preparing to defend myself and my family is the right thing to do. I recently purchased my first gun, a 12-gauge Remington 870 Express Synthetic 18″ [barrel] shotgun, at a local gun show. I also attended the two-day shotgun course at Front Sight in January. I now feel fairly confident in the handling and defensive use of my shotgun.

I was hoping to get your opinion on something that still bothers me, however. While I now believe it is prudent to provide for my own self-defense, I have to wonder if there is a danger of putting more faith in guns than in God? For example, see the following:

Psalms 20:7-8: “Some trust in chariots, and some in horses: but we will remember the name of the Lord our God. They are brought down and fallen: but we are risen, and stand upright.”

Psalms 44:5-7: “Through thee will we push down our enemies: through thy name will we tread them under that rise up against us. For I will not trust in my bow, neither shall my sword save me. But thou hast saved us from our enemies, and hast put them to shame that hated us.”

Isaiah 2:22: “Cease ye from man, whose breath is in his nostrils: for wherein is he to be accounted of?”

Your blog seems to discuss guns, body armor, and hardened defensive structures pretty extensively. Is this something you have considered before? What do you think is the correct balance between guns and God? At what point does someone cross the line where they begin to put all their faith and trust in their guns and their own preparations? How do us Christian and otherwise religious Survivalblog readers avoid crossing that line? Thanks again! – DR

JWR Replies: Thanks for re-opening this topic. First, you mentioned Psalm 20,. It noteworthy that this psalm was an admonition to Israel’s kings to not raise too large an army rather than saying the nation should not have an army to defend itself. (That psalm ties it to several other verses that warn against “multiplying chariots”.)

Certainly, there must be a balance struck when preparing. It is foolish to trust just in just your own preparations. We need to trust in God’s providence and his protection for his Covenant people. But at the same time we need to heed the prodding of the Holy Spirit to prepare for our family’s safety, housing, nourishment, and security.

Trust in God is a wonderful and crucial aspect of preparedness (it is to me!) but we should not expect manna to fall from heaven, nor walls of flame to spring up between us and those that would do us harm. Some Mennonites, for example, eschew all means self defense and decry even the willingness to defend oneself or one’s loved ones. That, in my opinion is taking “turning the other cheek” (Luke 6:29) to an extreme that is not scripturally founded.

Exodus 22:2 provides Biblical justification for killing someone if he intends to forcibly rob or kill another man: ” If a thief be found breaking up, and be smitten that he die, [there shall] no blood [be shed] for him.” Exodus 22:2 (KJV)

And Jesus teaches that it is wise to be armed, in Luke 22:35-36 (KJV): “And he said unto them, When I sent you without purse, and scrip, and shoes, lacked ye any thing? And they said, Nothing.
Then said he unto them, But now, he that hath a purse, let him take [it], and likewise [his] scrip: and he that hath no sword, let him sell his garment, and buy one.”

In an article titled: What Does The Bible Say About Gun Control? Larry Pratt keenly observed the difference between self-defense and vengeance:

Resisting an attack is not to be confused with taking vengeance which is the exclusive domain of God (Rom. 12:19). This has been delegated to the civil magistrate, who, as we read in Romans 13:4, “. . . is God’s minister to you for good. But if you do evil, be afraid; for he does not bear the sword in vain; for he is God’s minister, an avenger to execute wrath on him who practices evil.”

Private vengeance means one would stalk down a criminal after one’s life is no longer in danger as opposed to defending oneself during an attack. It is this very point that has been confused by Christian pacifists who would take the passage in the Sermon on the Mount about turning the other cheek (which prohibits private vengeance) into a command to falter before the wicked.

Let us consider also that the Sixth Commandment tells us: “Thou shall not murder.” In the chapters following, God gave to Moses many of the situations which require a death penalty. God clearly has not told us never to kill. He has told us not to murder, which means we are not to take an innocent life. Consider also that the civil magistrate is to be a terror to those who practice evil. This passage does not in any way imply that the role of law enforcement is to prevent crimes or to protect individuals from criminals. The magistrate is a minister to serve as “an avenger to execute wrath on him who practices evil” (Rom. 13:4).

Jesus taught both to turn the other cheek and to be well-armed to defend oneself. The important factor is having the wisdom to know when to employ either approach depending on the circumstances. I pray, for wisdom, discernment, and discretion, daily. I don’t seek out trouble, and in fact I have moved my family to a remote, lightly populated region in good part to avoid trouble. But if unavoidable trouble comes my way, I want to have the option of resisting force with force. And I only have that option if I am armed and trained.

Some critics of armed preparedness cite Matthew 26:52-54 (KJV), which descries how Jesus responded when Peter cut off the ear of a high priest’s servant, using a sword: “Then said Jesus unto him, Put up again thy sword into his place: for all they that take the sword shall perish with the sword. Thinkest thou that I cannot now pray to my Father, and he shall presently give me more than twelve legions of angels? But how then shall the scriptures be fulfilled, that thus it must be?”

In context, Jesus is telling Peter that it would be suicidal to fight in that particular situation, since they were quite outnumbered. And of course Jesus knew it was in God’s plan for him to be arrested, tried, crucified, and resurrected. Jesus told Peter to put his sword in its place –which was back in his belt. Jesus was telling Peter in effect that “there is a time to fight, and this, my friend, isn’t it.” He didn’t command him to “throw that sword away”, or “surrender it”, or to “stop carrying it”. After all, according to Luke, Jesus had just recently ordered the disciples to arm themselves. The reason for the arms was obviously to protect their own lives when traveling–not to protect His own life, which He intended to sacrifice, to pay for our sins, once and for all.

The Old testament teaches both to be armed, and to be trained. We read in Psalm 144:1:

Blessed [be] the LORD my strength,
which teacheth my hands to war,
[and] my fingers to fight:

Yes, as Christians our battles are mainly spiritual, but we must also be prepared to defend our lives, and the lives of our loved ones, against evildoers.

Letter Re: A Source for Potable Water Storage Tanks

Jim,
I enjoy your blog. Recently a few friends and I started to look for potable water storage tanks for long term storage. Most tanks either were not designed for long term storage or the retailer does not have enough information. (Ever since the bottled water cancer scare, the composition of the plastic has taken on a new importance.)

Wanted to pass on to you a link to WaterTanks.com, a company that has really been great leading us through the process and willing to sell us 1 or 100 tanks. Our sales rep is James Opferman.

We are going to pick up the tanks ourselves and save on the sizable shipping costs. I thought your audience might be interested. They also have a cool rain barrel configured with a nice strainer on the top. Keeps out the roof debris and bugs.

I’m off, to read more of your site. – Jerry A

Economics and Investing:

Tamara over at the Books, Bikes. & Boomsticks blog mentioned Rick Santelli’s “rant of the year”, amidst cheers from the Chicago Merc trading pits.

Stock market slump: Major stock market indexes fall to 1997 levels. Hmmm, let’s see, now adjusting for infaltion,…

G.G. sent this: Foreigners Wary of Long-Term U.S. Securities. JWR’s comment: How long will it be before foreign investors start demanding higher rates of return.? Stagflation is coming, folks!

I spotted this Wall Street Journal article linked at The Drudge Report: ‘Nationalize’ the Banks, Dr. Doom says a takeover and resale is the market-friendly solution.

Several readers sent this article from The Guardian: Britain faces summer of rage – police, Middle-class anger at economic crisis could erupt into violence on streets

Reader “Jericho Jo” set us this: The noose around U.S. banks’ neck: the unknown. A quote: “Even prominent members of Congress, including Senate banking committee chairman Chris Dodd, acknowledge a seizure of one or more banks may eventually be necessary. The industry, already fighting for its survival, is now also fighting for its independence.”

Items from The Economatrix:

Soros Sees No Bottom in World Financial Collapse

Martin Weiss: Red Alert–Meltdown Imminent!

UK Could Crash Like Iceland

Greenspan: “Recession” Will be Worst Since 1930s

The Future of U.S. Banks

Fears For BofA and Citi Rattles Markets

This Financial Crisis is Now Truly Global

United They Fall: Post-Communist States Pull EU Into Red

US Seeks to Stem Nationalization Fears

April Gold Futures Settle Above $1,000

The More They Do the Worse it Gets

US Debt is Losing its Appeal in China

World Financial System Insolvent

IMF Emergency Fund Doubled to $500 Billion

Economic Crisis “Is as Bad as They Come”

Huge Protest Over Irish Economy

 Financial Foxes Guarding the Hen House

Miles of Idled Box Cars Leave Towns Singing the Freight-Train Blues

Odds ‘n Sods:

Heather flagged this for us: Sole revival for cobblers. Heather asks: “Perhaps this is a good Depression-proof trade to learn?”
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Reader “67” pointed me to HowAutoWork.com, a a site for learning the concepts and terminology of engines and motor vehicles. Knowing how a machine works is crucial to understanding repairs and maintenance. The site has detailed, informative, easy-to-grasp information. I’m bookmarking it for “curriculum enrichment” for my home-schooled kids. This sub-page on engine types is a good starting point.

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Several readers sent us thi from Glenn Beck’s site: The Survivors Club Quiz

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Brian F. sent this news article from Alaska: If you’re packing, flaunt it, group says

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

Wir versaufen unser Oma ihr klein Hauschen,
Ihr klein Hauschen,
Wir versaufen unser Oma ihr klein Hauschen,
Und die erste und die zweite Hypothek!
– Popular drinking song in the Weimar Republic of Germany, 1922 referring to the runaway inflation of the period

Loosely translated:
We are drinking up our granny’s little house,
Her little house,
We are drinking up our granny’s little house,
And the first and second mortgage!

Note from JWR:

Please keep spreading the word! Putting a link to SurvivalBlog.com in your web page or in your e-mail footer will mean that there’ll be thousands of new SurvivalBlog readers, and more importantly thousands of people that will be prepared in the coming hard times. Consider that each of your friends, neighbors, and relatives that get prepared will be one less person that comes begging on your doorstep, on TEOTWAWKI+1, so it is in your own best interest to wake people up.

The MOAB Expands Again–Another $1 Trillion Slated for Hedge Funds

The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) keeps growing. SurvivalBlog reader PhotoTom sent us this: U.S. Tries a Trillion-Dollar Key for Locked Lending. Here is a snippet: “The Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve plan to spend as much as $1 trillion to provide low-cost loans and guarantees to hedge funds and private equity firms that buy securities backed by consumer and business loans.”

I’ve been warning about the likelihood of hedge fund collapses for years. This first trillion dollars in bailout money for the hedge funds is little more than a kind gesture between banking buddies. But it won’t magically restore liquidity to a global credit market that measures in the hundreds of trillions. International liquidity is still frozen, asset values are still plunging, the level of opacity and obfuscation are nearly total, and the level of mutual trust betwixt bankers is miniscule. The current “Price Discovery” system is a joke. Most of the once-touted collateralized debt obligation (CDO) derivatives, for example, are so onion-layered that there is no effective method to judge their safety. And we cannot depend on “neutral third parties” to judge value, risk, and credit-worthiness. The so-called watchdogs at Standard & Poors, Fitch, and Moody’s, we have learned, were complicit in the subprime Housing Bubble swindle. They were on the take. Who wants to buy packaged debt instruments when they may contain toxic debt? Who is going to lend in that environment? I can foresee that the write-downs may eventually be as deep as 80% for many derivative instruments such as CDOs and credit default swaps (CDSs).

I stand by my prediction of massive hedge fund failures and redemption suspensions. The next wave will likely come in early April, when hedge fund earnings (or more likely the lack thereof) are announced at the end of Q1.

An aside: Two of my consulting clients are hedge fund managers. Both of them are looking for extremely safe, remote, and self-sufficient rural retreats. Who can blame them? More than most other observers and certainly more that the still clueless talking heads on CNBC, hedge fund managers can see the enormity of the economic crisis, its full implications and the most likely final outcome. And that outcome will be a lot more like The Road Warrior than it will be It’s a Wonderful Life.

Dollars and Real Money

Do you recall my mention that the US Dollar’s recent gains against the Euro are more of a function of banking weakness in Europe than it is of any real strength in the Dollar itself? This article with accompanying graph prove my point: Financial Crises And Public Finances: Where Is The Greatest Risk? (My thanks to veteran economist John Mauldin, who pointed me to the BCA Research web site.) According to Mauldin, Europe is just one small step from a total systemic banking collapse. I concur. If one European nation’s banking system fails, the rest may follow, like a house if cards. The American banking system may be precarious, but the situation is even more tenuous in Europe. My advice? Get out of paper currencies (both the Dollar and the Euro) and buy practical tangibles. Things like Silver, gold, stainless steel (handguns) and lead (the JHP variety). Forget fine art, vintage wines, and collectibles. Those are all headed into a downward spiral. But if by chance you do fancy any of those, just wait until we reach the depth of the Depression, and you’ll be able to pick them up for 20 cents on the dollar. Presently, you should be getting out of your dollar-denominated investments, and stuffing your home gun vault vault full of battle rifles, large bore autopistols, and full capacity magazines. A few bags of pre-’65 junk silver make nice ballast for the bottom of the vault. The current (and most likely short-lived) strength in the Dollar represents perhaps your last chance to pay down your debts and shelter your assets in tangibles.

Letter Re: Recommendation for Mara Helland

James-
I have started using Mara Helland [one of SurvivalBlog’s advertisers] as my CPA after finding her on your site. She is very helpful, very friendly, and very reasonable. There is also a major benefit to using her service as she understands the SurvivalBlog mindset and goals.

Thanks for your help, – D.C.

Letter Re: The Risk to Reward Ratio in Getting Concealed Carry Permits

JWR;

One option to consider for a Concealed Carry Permit would be to apply for a non-resident permit from the State of Florida. Florida’s Dept of Agriculture issues permits to non-Floridians and the application process and requirements are less restrictive than in my home state of Arkansas. The training requirements are very generous. Along with traditional types of training, they will accept firearms training courses conducted by your state or any NRA-certified instructor; a hunter’s education course, or even a Form DD-214 for military members or veterans. The cost is reasonable and Florida
has one of the best reciprocity programs in the nation. [JWR Adds: Florida concealed carry permits are recognized in 23 states!]

For OPSEC, holding a Florida non-resident permit in another state allows the holder a little anonymity against the release of public records. Just a few days ago, I came across an Excel spreadsheet listing names and addresses of every permit holder in my state plus the state of Tennessee. The list did not disclose the names of Arkansas or Tennessee residents that hold Florida permits. The application process is very straight-forward and can be requested on the Florida web site.
– RDC, Arkansas

Economics and Investing:

The Army Aviator notes: “Just a head’s up, perhaps a sea change of some sort: Bloomberg[‘s televised financial news on Sunday] started off by saying that several Asian countries had pooled together a fund of $125 Billion to fight FOREX attacks against their currency but it didn’t seem like enough. Then they described Hillary’s visit to [mainland] China in an unusual way. Their comment: ‘We thought she was a presidential candidate but she’s just a bond salesman.'”

From reader HPD comes this BBC news link: Is the US heading for a depression? The US economy is contracting sharply. Is there a danger that it will go from recession to depression?

Peter O. suggested this Reason magazine piece by Damon Root: “Milton Friedman Proud Father of Global Misery” (No, it is not a diatribe against Friedman–it is in his defense.)

Items from The Economatrix:

Fannie Mae Rescue Hindered as Asians Seek Guarantee

Jefferson Co., Alabama, Unable to Make $636 Million Sewer Debt Friday

Treasuries: Prices Fall as Treasury Set to Issue $94 Billion

Shenandoah Update No. 23: All News, All Bad

Examples: Confidence Destroyed

The Hijacking of America. A quote: “There is no longer any means of reversal of the final terminal phase of the downward spiral now solidly set in motion. It is coming whether you or I want it to or not. All you can do is take the positive approach and prepare for it, and profit from the debacle. The time to do so however is rapidly running out.”

Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader S.H. notes: Many good lessons here in this outstanding photo-essay on the recent devastating Australian forest fires. There are definitely some lessons to be learned here in many of the aerial views burned homes and structures about defensible space and the repercussions of not evacuating when you should. Some of these pictures are rather sobering reminders of the power of fire.

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I heard that for a limited time, Ready Made Resources is offering the Warrior Aid and Litter Kit at 40% off. This medic kit package includes a Talon II 90C folding handle collapsible litter, which normally retails for $560, just by itself. If you’ve been looking for a “full up” tactical trauma kit at a reasonable price, then this is it!

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Several readers mentioned that they saw Glenn Beck’s recent War Room television special edition on “worst case scenarios” for the near future. The first three segments are available on YouTube. Beck seemed flabbergasted by the two retired military men that spoke in favor of private citizen “Bubbas” standing up for the Constitution. (It was clear that Beck was expecting at least one of them to have a much different response.) OBTW, the show inspired a new discussion thread over at TMM.

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SMC found this wee bit of Survival humor: Wondermark #491; In which Wendy is prepared