Letter Re: Some Thoughts on Practical Preparedness — Things That Work

Jim:
To follow-up on the last two e-mails that you posted from me, here are some random thoughts that I’d like to share on preparedness for when the Schumer Hits the Fan (WTSHTF):

Use an eyeglasses “leash” (lanyard) to prevent the loss of glasses and reduce the risk of damage.

Buy janitorial-size rolls os toilet paper, without perforations. Each roll is 1,000 feet long, and a box of 12 rolls measures about two feet square. These take up just a fraction of the room required to store the same length of toilet paper in standard household rolls.

Use a kiddie-type pool to collect water from rainwater downspouts. The pools with hard-plastic sides and vinyl bottoms are fairly durable. A six foot diameter pool that is 15 inches deep holds 211 gallons of water.

Light-emitting diode (LED) lights are superior to traditional [filament] bulb designs. They last much longer and are much more resistant to impact. When used LEDs, batteries last much longer. LED headlights are close to ideal for doing chores, since they keep your hands free. Tactical use requires a hand-held or weapon-mounted light [with an intermittent switch.]

Krazy Glue [cyanoacrylate adhesive] is great for closing small cuts [after they have been properly cleaned.] Steri-strips are the next step up in holding ability.

Water Filters – Culligan’s new EZ-change Level 4 [under-sink] filter [cartridge] is rated to treat 500 gallons. That is five time the volume of most compact backpacking filters. With a self-contained design, it would be easy to attach a pump. The are available for $38 through Amazon.com. Most [other] under-sink filters could be used the same way, but the Culligan design is preferable because it is fairly compact.

For “ready made” backpacking filters, I prefer the First Need brand filters. These are rated to remove viruses and radioisotopes.

Ball-shaped pin on magnetic compasses are compact, but they are more fragile that the type designed to clip on to a watch band, such as the Brunton and Suunto brand compasses.

Dental health is very important for long-term survival. Wal-Mart now sells a dental kit including a mirror with scaling tool and pick, from Dentek. They also sell Temparin temporary filling repair kits. These come in three-application containers. Temparin is far superior to the old standby of packing a lost filling void with zinc oxide.

A big part of survival is preventing injury. In a post collapse word, an injury will reduce available manpower, and something that would be considered just relatively minor in the present day could prove fatal. Proper safety equipment and training in the safe use of hand tools is crucial. Gloves, eye protection, preventing falls, fire safety, and so forth should be stressed. Hygiene and proper sanitation are equally important.

I believe that a good foundation for long-term family preparedness is learning the basics of wilderness survival. Having a solid understanding of the first four critical basics–water, food heat and shelter–helps set priorities in developing a larger plan for long-term preparation. It is also the final “fall back” position [in the event that you are forced to abandon your retreat or in case you never make it there]. These basics are also foundational in making important decisions.

Odds ‘n Sods:

I hope that readers took my advice and bought precious metals during the recent dip. The bank credit crisis seems to have woken the gold bull from his short nap. (Gold had one of its best one day gains ever, on Wednesday.) I believe that the bull’s charge will resume, shortly. Because the consumer economy now looks weak, I predict that gold will probably outperform silver in the next run-up. (Since silver is more of an industrial metal, whereas gold as seen as a safe haven when currencies are in turmoil.)

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Tim T. mentioned that any SurvivalBlog readers with an interest in farming with draft horses should check out The Small Farmer’s Journal. BTW, they also have a great book catalog,

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Bill N. recommended a blog piece by Bayou Renaissance Man about his local Neighborhood Watch on Steroids.

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A puzzling article from Der Spiegel was flagged by reader Jack B.: ‘Certain Mistakes Just Can’t Be Allowed to Happen’–“Hundreds of millions of euros from a German government-owned bank went down the drain with Lehman Brothers on Monday after a strange deal that has left many people scratching their heads. Why would a German bank transfer €300 million to an American Wall Street firm after it filed for bankruptcy?” JWR’s comment: I suspect that they were hoping to limit some massive outstanding counterparty risk from derivatives contracts with Lehman Brothers. If they can help keep them afloat by chipping in €300 million, then they might avoid the far bigger risk of a disappearing derivatives contract counterparty. The stakes in the global derivatives casino are almost too huge to imagine.

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The Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) grows a bit more: Fed announces $180 billion cash flood to fight crisis. Eric (a frequent SurvivalBlog content contributor) alerted me that as of Thursday, $105 billion had already rolled out the door of the Fed (electronically). Meanwhile, we read: Morgan Stanley Said to Be in Talks With China’s CIC. The global credit collapse is completely out of control, folks. Be ready to hunker down, if and when things get ugly.

Notes from JWR:

It seems that we are now all in the insurance business. For a mere $85+ billion “loan”, the Federal Reserve–backed by the full faith and credit of the US Treasury–just became a 80% stakeholder in AIG, the nation’s largest insurance company. Hmmmm… Just as I warned, the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) has grown again. Methinks this is going to get a lot worse, before it gets better. Who will we bail out next? Chase Manhattan Bank? General Motors? United Airlines? Chuck E. Cheese? Hey, no prob, we’ve got a big checkbook. The sky’s the limit. We’ll just create the money out of thin air, and “owe it to ourselves.” Let’s face it: The nation is already functionally bankrupt. And as the MOAB continues to grow, we can expect that foreigners will one sad day declare our once-proud nation literally bankrupt, and refuse to take our paper. At that point the game will be over. Move over, Comrade Mugabe. There’ll be a new inflationary wizard in town.

The high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is now at $750. The auction for a large mixed lot that includes: A Special Mixed Vegetable Case-Six #10 Dehydrated Food Cans (Retail Price $105.95) This special Mixed Vegetable Case contains six #10 (96-ounce) cans–one can of each of the following: Mixed Vegetable Blend, Green Beans, Sweet Garden Peas, Mixed Peppers, Potato Dices, and Sweet Potatoes and a EZ-Towels 10 Pack Combo (10 bags of 50 towels. Retail value: $99.95). These items were donated by Jan at Healthy Harvest Foods. An assortment of world class loose leaf teas, and a box of Bellagio hot chocolate (25 individual packs), with a combined value of approximately $100. These items were courtesy of Charlie at CMEBrew.com. A NukAlert radiation detector (a $160 value), donated by at KI4U.com. And, a Katadyn VARIO water filter, donated by Ready Made Resources. (An $89 retail value.) The auction ends on Monday October 15, 2008. Please e-mail us your bid.

Letter Re: Silver Canadian Leaf Bullion Coins

Jim,
I’m getting ready to add to my collection of gold and silver coins and wanted to bring up a perhaps significant point: American Silver Eagles have a face value of $1, whereas the equivalent Canadian coin (the 1 ounce Maple Leaf) has a face value of $5 Canadian – about $4.65 USD at the current exchange rate. The face value represents a built-in stop-loss should silver prices fall through the floor for any reason. At current prices, the face value of the Canadian caps your potential loss at slightly higher than 50% whereas with the U.S. coin you could potentially lose more than 90% of your investment. Granted, a fall to such low prices is extremely unlikely; nonetheless, a stop-loss is an important component of any investment position and should be carefully considered when buying coins.

And, patriotism aside, I think the Canadian coin is prettier [than the U.S. Silver Eagle] 🙂

Best, – Matt R.


JWR Replies: Your point is well taken. Although the chances of a collapse in the price of silver below $5 per ounce is quite small, it doesn’t hurt to hedge your bets. Another “stop-loss” approach like yours is buying US silver half dollars that were minted between 1965 and 1970. Unlike the pre-1965 US coins (that were 90% silver), these later half dollars were minted with just 40% silver content. The beauty of investing in these is that if the price of silver were ever to collapse, you could simply spend them. The only downside is that because they are only 40% silver, they are a much bulkier and heavier way to invest in barterable silver. The 40% silver half dollars are available in $500 and $1,000 face value bags, from coin dealers. Here is some data that you should jot down, for calculating the bullion value of circulated US coins:

1964 or earlier 90% dime, quarter or half-dollar bags ($1,000 face value) contain approximately 715 ounces of silver
1965-to-1970 40% half dollar bags ($1,000 face value) contain approximately 296 ounces of silver

So, for example, to determine the bullion value of $1,000 face value in 40% silver quarters, simply multiply the current day’s spot price of silver ($10.85, as of this writing) x 296. Thus, $10.85 x 296 = $3,211.60 per bag. Based on that you can estimate that these coins are presently worth 3.21 times their face value. (A 40% silver 50 cent piece is worth $1.60 in FRNs. Meanwhile a 90% silver 50 cent piece is worth $3.88 in FRNs.) Silver would have to collapse to below $3 per ounce before it would make sense to spend 40% silver half dollars as regular pocket change. But, even then, given the long term trends for the value of the US Dollar, it would be crazy to do so.

Letter Re: A Recent Gasoline Shortage Underscores the Need to Be Low Profile

Sir:
I’ve been a reader of your site for only about a year and consider myself a beginner-level survivalist. I’ve got the mindset and start of some basic short-term survival gear and knowledge, but haven’t been able to convince the wife to go all out yet. A few months ago, you had posted an article about keeping your level of preparedness secret from neighbors and I wasn’t sure why until recently. I live in Middle Tennessee, and although we are hundreds of miles away from Hurricane Ike, we experienced a short run on gas and spike in prices. Probably close to a quarter of the gas stations in the city simply ran out. From past experience, I had already purchased a 50-gallon drum with manual pump (which I had filled in July), and I had three 5-gallon jugs that I used to fill up the day before [the hurricane’s] landfall. I could easily make that last for a month even without changing my driving habits as long as there is electricity and I don’t have to generate. Plenty of time for capacity to return to normal.

Not only did I get some evil looks while filling up at the pump [in July], but I was also scrutinized at work by a few people that I had told about my “cache.” Most seemed to think I was the reason for the shortage (or a part of it.) And while I agree that a hype can fuel a shortage, a shortage is still a shortage. My personal preparedness plays such a miniscule role in the big picture. But the comments are enough to have made me learn my lesson. If 65 gallons of gas is enough for people to question my intentions, then what would they say if they discovered a much larger level or preparedness and the problem was much worse? Suddenly I’m not the guy trying to survive — I’m the stingy hoarder who won’t share with people in need and in some way contributed to the shortage. Thanks for all you do. – Wes B.

JWR Replies: In my opinion, the modern American citizenry has been badly misinformed by the mass media about what constitutes “hoarding.” By filling your gas drum and cans several months ago, you did not contribute to a shortage of fuel in the present day. In normal times, chains of supply are continuously replenished. By buying and storing supplies well in advance, you actually helped to alleviate the current short-term supply disruption. By having a pre-existing stockpile, you represent one less motorist queuing up at the gas station. The same logic applies to any other shortage. It is only people that attempt to buy a disproportionately large supply during a crisis that could legitimately be called “hoarders.” But people in your category–that bought far in advance–are not part of the problem. In fact, by having extra on hand, you can dispense charity, which makes you part of the solution.

Maintaining a low profile is just common sense. The “need to know” rule— that was constantly drummed into me when I was in the intelligence community–is time-proven. There are great advantages in being circumspect.

I enjoy giving charitably. But there is no reason why it has to be done with a high profile in the midst of a natural disaster or other crisis. By anonymously leaving parcels on doorsteps or by using an intermediary–such as your local church–you are far less likely to attract unwanted attention from either government officials or members of your community with a twisted sense of ethics.

The other reason for being secretive about charity is Biblical: In Matthew 6:3 (King James Version) we are taught: “But when thou doest alms, let not thy left hand know what thy right hand doeth.” Essentially, this means that when giving charitably, we should do it without any fanfare, lest it be a source of pride. Give generously, but do so very quietly.

Letter Re: Tropical Storm Ike’s Devastation Works its Way North to Ohio

Hi Jim,
We live in Columbus, Ohio and had 76 m.p.h. winds on Sunday. We have been without power until late today. Our neighborhood looks like a war zone. Many trees on homes and in yards. There is some good news in that we shared our generator with neighbors. Others in the neighborhood were doing the same. Some of the kids set up a barbeque stand and were selling hot dogs and hamburgers for cost. This helped many to have meals. Everyone helped to clear trees and limbs from the roads and yards. Schools are still closed for Wednesday and many intersections still have no signals. The majority of people are using common sense. In general the west side of Columbus seemed to get hit the worse.

Let me say that we rode this out without much trouble. We had plenty of gas for the generator and batteries for all of the flashlights and push on lights. We had water stored but it was not needed. We had the right tools such as pots and pans etc. that could be used on outside fires.

This was not the case for many. I went shopping for a few things and while at the store a family was there buying emergency supplies. The mother commented to me that she didn’t know what she was going to fix to eat since she had no power. I asked if they had a grill and she said yes. I told her to either buy or use some cheap pots and pans and use the grill to cook. She looked at me and was so surprised and said she would not have thought to use the grill. I could have told her a few other ways to make meals but she moved on. I saw so many people trying to find ice as well as generators. Camping items such as lanterns were all sold out in stores. I did notice that several stores had raised prices on these items but most were sold out.

I have never been one, however, to own guns and always felt that I would not need one. Well that has all changed as of last night. We had the generator chained to the deck with heavy chains and locks and thought it was safe. We had been watching television using rabbit ears and I got up to go to the other room. When I returned I saw a car pull up in front of the house. We were the only house [in the neighborhood] to have lights and it could be seen from the road. You could also hear the generator from the road. The car moved on when the driver saw me standing and looking out the window.

We decided we needed something in case they came back trying to take the generator. The only thing we found was a length of heavy pipe. We got it and then did not sleep for fear of losing the generator. I will be getting a gun and taking safety classes to ensure proper use so that our property will be defended if needed.

We thought we were prepared but now have found a few items we still need to get to be better prepared for next time. We have you to thank for helping us to prepare as well as we did. Sincerely, – Melanie & Rick

Odds ‘n Sods:

Krys in Idaho flagged this one: Ike Holdouts To Be Forced From Home. Some comments from Krys: “This story shows the importance of two things: 1) Proper retreat location and2) Having multiple plans in place for multiple scenarios WTSHTF. Just because you plan to stay in place, doesn’t mean you’ll be able to.How many of these folks were perfectly able to weather the storm in place, but are being forced to move anyway, possibly at gun point? Food for thought.”

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Reader “M” sent us this: Money Market Fund Says Customers Could Lose Money. Money market accounts have long considered “ultra safe. But when even these are in peril, you know that something is horribly wrong with the financial markets. My advice: If you have any deposits in accounts that are not FDIC insured then shift them elsewhere, even if it means earning substantially less interest. In today’s economy you should be focused on safety, rather than maximizing your returns. (You should worry “not so much about return on investment as return of investment.”)

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Any SurvivalBlog readers that own a M1919 belt-fed (semi-auto or full-auto) have probably been feeling the pinch from the sharply higher ammo prices in recent months. It is well-known that you can convert these guns (originally designed to fire .30-06) to shoot 7.62mm NATO, .303 British, or 8mm Mauser (a.k.a. 8×57). But as I was wandering the Web today, I found a company called BarrelXChange. They now offer M1919 conversions to the Russian 7.62×39 and 7.62.54(r) chamberings! BTW, they also offer Uzi SMG conversions in some unusual calibers. Their Model 1919 conversion kits ar available via mail order, but to save on shipping, they’ll also be available at the Knob Creek Machinegun Shooting Event (October 10th 11th & 12th, 2008), at Dolf Goldsmith’s table. (Dolf is the gent that wrote the three volume book on Browning machineguns.)

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The crisis on Wall Street is now being felt all around the world: These four articles are just a brief sampling: China paper urges new currency order after “financial tsunami”, ECB doyen Otmar Issing calls crisis “extremely dangerous”, Panic as Russian market suspended , and Panic grips credit markets.

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Eric sent us several interesting economic news links: House prices to fall on liquidity concerns—U.S. Mortgage Rates May Wreak Havoc After Libor Gain—Pimco real estate fund tanks, and Americans Should Worry About Bank Deposits. Meanwhile Cheryl (our Economic Editor) sent us these links: Will AIG File $1 Trillion Bankruptcy?—AIG Death Would Be Far Worse Than Lehmans—A Global Fight Over Pieces of Lehman Bros.—FDIC Says Banking System “Safe and Sound”—Greenberg-Led AIG Investors Consider Taking Control, and Why the Fed Didn’t Cut the Funds Rate.

Notes from JWR:

Prompted by the clamorous economic headlines in the mainstream media, I’ve had numerous e-mails and phone calls from relatives and consulting clients, asking me “Is this it, Jim?” Please keep in mind that I’m not a prophet. I’m just a former spook that makes some empirical observations and draws some logical conclusions. But I can safely say that “it” appears to be a lot closer than it ever has been in my adult life. Be ready.

Thanks to the generous folks at KI4U.com, the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction package in the auction that just started this week has been expanded, to include a NukAlert radiation detector (a $160 value). The high bid is now at $150. See the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction Page for a full list of what is included. Our thanks to the many generous vendors that donated merchandise!

Our special thanks to Melanie S., Mike M., and “Secret Squirrel” for their very generous donations toward The Memsahib‘s recent huge medical bills. She is now out of the hospital and doing better but still needs your prayers for miraculous healing. She is greatly uplifted by your prayers!

Letter Re: Advice on Get Out of Dodge Vehicles

James:
I have a question about cars: In making your G.O.O.D. vehicle, which would be considered safer, a modern car with front and side airbags, a modern car with airbags and a roll cage, a modern car with airbags disabled/removed and a roll cage, or an old muscle car without airbags but with roll cage? – SF in Hawaii

JWR Replies: To begin, from what I’ve read, most of the professional drivers in the executive protection business drive with only the driver’s side airbags disabled.

Based on what I’ve heard regarding what models are driven by the winners at demolition derbies, a late 1960s to very early 1970s station wagon with a big block engine would be ideal. They get pitifully low gas mileage, but they have lots of cargo room, and they have clearance for a roll bar behind the bench-type front seat. You can also add a roof rack for relatively lightweight items such as spare tires,.tentage, and camouflage nets.

To my mind, perfection in a G.O.O.D. station wagon would be a flat brown-painted 1970 Buick Estate with a 455 cubic inch four-barrel V8 engine. What a ride: Plenty of power, very tough in collisions, easy to maintain, EMP protection even when near ground zero, and even a touch of class. (They are starting to be considered classics, so your neighbors probably wouldn’t object to one in your driveway.) But I’m not sure how many rust-free 38-year-old vehicles are still available in the tropical climate of Hawaii. 😉 I suppose that you could find one in Arizona or New Mexico through the ads in Hemming’s Motor News, but then subsequently transporting it to Hawaii would probably be prohibitively expensive.

Letter Re: Some Thoughts on Fuel Conservation WTSHTF

Jim:
To follow-up on my last e-mail, here are some random thoughts that I’d like to share on fuel conservation, for when the Schumer Hits the Fan (WTSHTF):

Water Pasteurization Indicators (WAPIs) – Often used in the Third World to save fuel and time when treating drinking water. Water that is heated to 149 degrees for a short time is free from living microbes. Water does not have to be boiled for 10 minutes. A WAPI is a simple, small and low cost tube with a special soy wax that can show that water has reached a safe Pasteurization temperature. These are available from SolarCooking.org. (By the way, they also several nice solar oven designs.)

Solar ovens and Solar Showers – For cooking, water Pasteurization, and hot water for hygiene needs. There is also a “solar puddle” design available on the Internet for large scale water Pasteurization.

Oven and Meat Thermometers – Prevents waste of fuel [and nutritive value] by cooking foods to higher temperatures than necessary.

Pot Cozys – These are insulated wraps for cooking pots. You heat the pot and contents to a desired temperature and then set the pot off to the side, wrapped in a pot cozy. Thus insulated, the food continues to cook until done. [JWR Adds: For more on this topic, see KBF’s article in SurvivalBlog on Thermos cooking.]

Reflective Wind Shields – When used for cooking on a stove indoors or outdoors, these will shorten the time [and hence reduce fuel use] required to reach the desired temperature. – Doc Anonymous

Letter Re: Tropical Storm Ike’s Devastation Works its Way North to Ohio

Good Morning, Jim,
And yes it is a good morning at that. I’m here in the suburbs of Ohio between Dayton and Cincinnati. Our power has returned. I read Larry in Cincinnati’s post this morning, and I know his thoughts and feelings all too well. Like him, we had the preparedness mind set already in place, and fared a bit better than some of our neighbors. I only caught the tail end of your interview on AM 700 WLW in Cincinnati in my truck as I was heading to work ( the company I work for is on a different power grid and was up and running) Monday, and I could not help but think of some of the posts since I have been coming to SurvivalBlog, and some of the things that you have discussed on the site.

Like Larry, I hope this will be a wake up call to folks, but sadly, I know that only a small portion of them will get it. One of the things that I found to be spot on, was the part about the things that were stripped from the shelves of the few stores that were open. I did not see them first hand, but a few of my neighbors had gone to them, and they were an exact carbon copy of the list. One even told of folks heading to the toy department, to snap up all the Hannah Montana kids’ flashlights. Yep, batteries, camping stoves, lanterns, canned goods, candles, etc; Like I said, the list was so dead on it gave me a shiver. As I stated earlier, we were a bit better prepared, so we had no need of anything to get us through this minor inconvenience left over by the storm.

Folks down in Texas are going to be without power, water, food, and other needed supplies in some areas for many weeks to come, so our prayers go out to them more than the folks down the block who lost a small bit of food in their refrigerator because the power has been off for a little less than 48 hours. There was some talk of the possibility that it could have been out for a whole week, and this would have been a pretty bad thing for sure, but the thing that I voiced the most concern to my neighbors about, and the one that none of them had thought of was, that if it did take that long, there was a good possibility that the water tower that sits on the hill above our house would run dry, and without power to run the pumps to refill the tank. But, we were okay here, because we had filled half of our five gallon water cooler jugs a few days before this happened, and I had gone to the grocery on Friday, and had bought a case of 20 oz. bottles for my son to take in his school lunches. Cooking was not a problem, we have a charcoal grill,and I have a Coleman white gas fuel stove and a good supply of fuel for emergencies such as this. Plenty of flashlights, a battery powered lantern, spare batteries, oil lamps and oil, and candles with good sturdy candle holders for light, and a couple very good multi-band radios, and plenty of batteries for them as well.

I hope that others here in our tri-state area that were affected by this will see the need to prepare for things like this. I know that a few of my neighbors will be a bit better prepared for things by talking to me, and seeing how we were set up at my house for this. Now this is not to say that I was totally prepared. I saw a few “flaws in the slaw “, but preparing for these types of things is a constant and on-going process, and we do the best we can with the hand we have been dealt. The rest, we can adapt if we put our minds to the problems and keep a cool head. – Dim Tim

Odds ‘n Sods:

If you feel like you’ve waited too long to Get Out of Dodge, and you need to buy a complete, turn-key retreat, then listen to this: I’ve personally visited a northern Idaho retreat that just went on the market, through our spin-off site: SurvivalRealty.com. This retreat has some very special features (most of which I’ve seen) that will be revealed only to qualified buyers.

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Eric sent us this: Japan Stocks Dive to 3-Year Low on Lehman, AIG Capital Concern. “[The] Nikkei closed early as the volume was approaching their load limits…”

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A bunch more more economic gloomage gleaned by Cheryl, our Economic Editor: How the [Financial] Masters of the Universe Ran Amok and Cost Us the Earth—Card Debt Up 8.5%; Delinquencies Rise—HP To Cut 24,600 Jobs in EDS Integration—No Jobs Make Mean Streets—More Financial Turmoil to Come—The Social Imperative of Sound Money—The Final Destruction of the Middle Class—The Danger Is Not Fully Appreciated (US Under Financial Attack?)—Stocks End Higher After Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged—Barclays Agrees To Acquire Lehman Assets—Money as Debt—Money-Market Rates Double Amid Global Credit Seizure—Report on AIG Rescue Boosts Wall Street—AIG Shares Swing Amid Crisis—Goldman Sachs Down 70% in 3Q—Fed to give AIG $85 billion loan and take 80% stake–and, Is the US in Recession? (You think?)

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And for a little levity on the ever-encroaching Nanny State: City uses DNA to fight dog poop

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Lehman Brothers Holdings has gone bankrupt. Here is a firm that was founded in 1850. It survived the Civil War and the Great Depression. It did not survive the current breakdown. Anyone who thinks this crisis is some minor affair is not paying attention.” – Dr. Gary North