Economics and Investing:

Reader HPD mentioned this article: 24 States Borrow Money To Pay Unemployment Benefits. HPD’s comment: “Don’t worry. The Fed sees signs of recovery… Besides, Barney Frank and Nancy Pelosi are on the scene to fix it. “

Another missive from Dr. Housing Bubble: Wall Street and Housing Neurosis: The Real Cost of California Homeownership. Extreme Foreclosures, Option ARMs, Renting Utility Costs, and Breaking the Financially Twisted Psychology.

Noah C. spotted this: Heh, I Thought Dubai Was a Non-Event. Here is a quote: “Refusal to stand-still means there’s an immediate default, which means the [credit default swaps] go boom”

Items from The Economatrix:

Chinese Official Slams Western Banks Over Derivatives

Gold Will Reach Mind-Boggling Levels

High US Jobless Rates Could be New Normal

Japan’s Recovery Stumbles

China Wary of Gold “Bubble” Danger After Doubling its Reserve
. [JWR’s comment: At least it beats leaving their assets in the stinkin’ US Dollars!]

Recent World Events Indicate Impending Market Chaos. “All those who value truth, liberty, and an honorable society, should be ready not only to save themselves, but to save each other, and to save their country. The time for readiness grows short.”

Taxpayers in 29 States Hit With Higher Taxes

This is Progress? Jobs Data Optimism Obscures Harsh Reality



Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader “Hope in the Northwest” stumbled across a good basic web site with articles on common health issues, with pictures included. Some useful topics covered are bugs, eye diseases, foot problems, etc. There’s also basic info on treatment for common illnesses.

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The Californization of Colorado continues: Colorado State University bans guns on campus. (Thanks to Chad S. for the link.)

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The folks at DNS Down announced that they are now giving away their software free of charge, as a public service. Be sure to check it out!

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Glade was the first of several readers to point us tthis Washington Post article: The $700 billion man – The FedGov’s former TARP administrator is now hunkered down at a rural retreat in the foothils of California’s Sierra Nevada mountains. Glade’s comment: “Probably a good idea for some more bankers to head for the hills, but not real good OPSEC.”



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The only thing that can stop a bad man with a gun, is a good man with a gun” – Major Lars Laine, a fictional character in the forthcoming sequel to “Patriots: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse”, scheduled for release in 2011. The working title is: Veterans: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse. Its storyline will be contemporaneous with that of JWR’s first novel, and will have a few cross-over characters. This novel will be set primarily in the southwestern United States.



Note from JWR:

Tommorrow, December 7th, Americans remember the Imperial Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. On a Sunday morning, 68 years ago, we were the recipients of a well-planned and executed raid. According to an Internet history page: “The attack sank four U.S. Navy battleships (two of which were raised and returned to service later in the war) and damaged four more. The Japanese also sank or damaged three cruisers, three destroyers, and one minelayer, destroyed 188 aircraft, and caused personnel losses of 2,402 killed, and 1,282 wounded.” This day is a reminder that the price of liberty is eternal vigilance.

Today we present another entry for Round 26 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 26 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Solo Survival in a Societal Collapse?, by Wry Catcher

When it comes to natural and man-made disasters, I’ve seen my share, and each was a learning experience. Although diverse in type, all of them shared a common factor: a dire impact on the human populations they affected. That impact, in turn, led to dangerous encounters with some rough criminals. Some people cannot cope, so they turn to ruthless behavior. Other people are selfish opportunists. While we may have pity for those who can’t cope with the stress of a survival situation, we should nonetheless remain vigilant for those who would do us harm in any way and for any reason. As my niece says, “It only takes one creep to ruin your life.” She is so right!

We preppers and survivalists know by now that being part of a trustworthy and cooperative community will dramatically increase the odds for our survival. Whether surrounded by family, friends, or like-minded neighbors, having a support system in place during hard times is universally considered vital.

Suppose, however, that circumstances preclude you from enjoying the benefits of a protective community. Perhaps your friends and family live out of town. Some of you reading this right now don’t know your neighbors, and don’t want to know them. Many of you live alone by choice. Or perhaps an event forces you to become isolated from your community. Bottom line: you’re on your own. You need to ask yourself some questions now, before the bogey man arrives.

How can I maintain my sanity when chaos reigns around me?
Physical well-being is not enough. Besides the requisite beans, band-aids, and buckshot, a lonely survivor will need emotional and spiritual comfort, and a reason to live. Accumulate some mementoes of loved ones and happier times – photographs, voice recordings, a vacation postcard – anything that will abate the inevitable sense of aloneness and isolation. A few photographs and a small tape or MP3 player will fit easily into a Bug Out Bag (BOB).

Strong faith in an entity greater than yourself is a true comfort in times of trouble. Having faith in someone or something will help you endure the solitude.

As a sole survivor, how can I defend my living space?
The old adage goes, “there is safety in numbers.” Through projecting a sense of multiple occupants, your living space can be defended. If you have a source of electricity, use your radio, scanner, or tape recorder to produce vocal sounds. Set timers to turn on and off lights throughout the house. If electricity is unavailable or sporadic, quietly move about within the building. Keep any would-be intruders guessing as to where you are. Before the SHTF, place decorative glass objects on windowsills, so that anyone attempting to enter through a window will be encumbered. Plant knee-high, thorny bushes under windows and around all entrances. Whether or not actually you have a dog, place used dog dishes where outsiders can see them. Install a burglar alarm with battery back-up. Please note that burglar alarms and cluttered windowsills are not going to stop a determined intruder, but the noise these safety precautions make will alert you to trouble so that you can react accordingly.

Consider having 3M Safety & Security film installed on the inside of all windows so that “smash and grab” is more difficult. Perimeter fences should be sturdy and climb-proof. Landscaping should discourage fires from reaching the residence. Turn a basement bathroom or a laundry room into a bunker and a well-supplied defensive stand. Abandon rooms that cannot be easily defended from within. Another old adage, “don’t put all your eggs in one basket” is good advice when it comes to stashing weapons and water.

If you venture out, keep a low profile and don’t betray your location. A car can be a retreat in desperate times. It can also be a betrayer. Concealment makes the difference.

Will I be able to survive without electricity if my “strength through imaginary numbers” plan cannot be implemented without it?
If it is impossible to project a sense of strength, project a sense of abandonment. Make no noise. Cooking odors and smoke must not be visible. Venture outside of your sanctuary with great stealth and only when necessary for survival. Keep a low profile at all times.

Can I convince those who know or learn that I live alone to leave me alone?
I ask myself regularly:

  • Can I prepare without alerting others to what I’m doing?
  • Does my home look deserted or securely occupied?
  • Or both, depending on the situation?

Perhaps the best defense is to pretend to be absent. I have known people who hid in a secret closet or a basement bathroom while scavengers rummaged through their homes. When the thieves left, the homeowner returned to living as if nothing happened because their survival gear had been stowed with great forethought. Contemplate adding an underground or subsurface bunker to your home. If that is impossible, remodel an interior room to serve as a defensive position.

Present an impenetrable exterior and a well-defended position so that those will ill intent will be inclined to go elsewhere. Your goal should be having a home and property that appears occupied, when that is your best defense, and unoccupied, when that serves your needs. The balancing act is a tricky one, to be sure.

When at home, during times of trouble, keep a low profile. As you plan for survival, downplay each change to your home and your purchase of supplies. Your caches should only be known to family and trusted friends. Loose lips don’t just sink ships, they could sink your personal safety and security. Never hire the same contractor for two separate survival projects – don’t divulge the real reason or purpose of the work you are having done.

Could I use a weapon against another human being, if necessary? Can I train to do so? Are your knives sharp? Can you keep them that way? Is your 4×4 always ready for a quick getaway if you must abandon your home? Most importantly, Do you have a G.O.O.D. plan if things get too dicey? Your weapons should be familiar to you so that using them is second nature. Ammunition should be securely stowed until needed. If your weapons use common calibers and gauges, bartering will be easier.

Can you project a defensible exterior to your home while still presenting a comfortable residence during times of normalcy? This can be problematic unless carefully thought out. Landscaping can be defensibly practical and simultaneously attractive with little effort. Fencing, however, may have local restrictions and aesthetic considerations. Check local codes for current limitations, then work within those limits to create the best perimeter barrier. With a little work now, you can make a fence that can be easily reinforced at a later and more dangerous time. What you do to the interior of your house should be your business, so long as you keep it private and non-hazardous to your neighbors, you shouldn’t have much trouble. [JWR Adds: See the blog archives for my admonitions about liability issues, including chemical irritants and trap guns.] Filled sandbags line the walls of your garage? Why not!

The Bottom Line
Under many worst-case scenarios, odds of solo survival are less than 50-50. The odds get worse as sustained hardships persist. This you must know and accept, if you don’t accept those odds then you need to become part of a like-minded group of trustworthy people who will work with you to survive. If, however, you accept the odds, you must commit to not rolling over and dying without a fight. No human parasite will find an easy victim at your place. Many have survived while alone. You can, too, if you take stock of your vulnerabilities and prepare accordingly. Ask yourself the tough questions and answer them truthfully – your life may depend on it.



Economics and Investing:

More Friday Follies: U.S. Bank Failures Continue Apace. “Cleveland-based AmTrust Bank, with 66 branches and roughly $8 billion in deposits, was closed by regulators Friday, as the ongoing credit crunch continued to claim victims.”

Financial institutions urged to make banking accessible

UN says global economy will bounce back in 2010. [Again, one for the Economic Humor section.]

Items from The Economatrix:

Goldman Sachs December Party Ban: No Groups of 12 Or More. So, 10 lords a leaping, nine ladies dancing is totally OK. But if you see 12 bankers — they’d better be banking!

Most Americans Not Confident About Financial Future

Stocks Mostly Rise as Fed Sees Improving Economy

Senator Moves to Block Bernanke Confirmation

BofA to Repay TARP, Raise Cash

Ample Supply of Oil Drives Prices Below $77



Odds ‘n Sods:

Joe H. mentioned a site with an animated map of global air traffic patterns that was linked once before on SurvivalBlog. Joe’s comments: “Two key things to note are that you can see the ‘sunny side’ and air traffic seems to increase by a factor of five as daylight arrives, and there is not much air traffic routing around Cuba– a hole in the traffic.”

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C.B. was the first of several readers to mention this Popular Science article: How to Build a Propane-Fired Metal Forge

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Reader Michael G. wrote to mention that he noticed that Springfield Armory is having a 30% off sale. Mike commented: “I’m buying several XD-M .40 magazines saving $10 on each one, amongst other things. Time to stock up!”



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Search me, Oh God, and know my heart. Try me, and know my thoughts. And see if there be and wicked way in me, and lead me to way everlasting." – Psalm 26:2



Letter Re: Observations on Hand-Powered Tools

Sir:
I’m 60-ish. My old man had a lot of projects using “recycled” lumber and nails, and you know who did the nail recycling. As an electrical engineer and general artificer, I would pass along some thoughts if I may.

I was involved in a demonstration at a Navy base in the 1980s where a bicycle was coupled to an alternator and sealed beam lamps were attached for a load. One would pedal the bicycle up to speed, and the MC would switch on a lamp. Then two. Then the third. Very few could maintain output for two lamps, and only a couple could maintain all three; they looked like SEAL types. The lamps used were 35-watt sealed beam headlights. 70 watts is a day’s work for even a healthy young man.

Not only do I have several braces, various sizes, with the appropriate “ship augers”, but also some “egg-beater” geared drills. I would tackle a hole in steel or aluminum with my teeth before trying it with a brace. Of course, in a desperate situation, you do what you gotta do.

The geared drill is for drilling metal. I have one that actually has two speeds. The crank slides in a slot, to engage different gear ratios. It and another, are what is known as “breast drills”. Instead of a handle at the top, there is a curved plate of some 8 square inches. In use, the operator presses down with his chest to provide pressure while cranking. With a properly sharpened drill, it will cut 1/4″ mild steel fairly quickly.

What is more important is that you know how to sharpen a drill by hand, and by eye. I still do on small and very large drills that won’t fit my “Drill Doctor”, which only goes down to 1/16th inch. There are about 35 sizes that are smaller than that. And, of course, a Drill Doctor only goes up to 1/2″. I also sharpen by hand my paddle and spade bits, Forstner, carbide impact drills, and so on…

Cold chisel work is essential to metal working. It is easier than power tools in some applications. Also, learn filing technique and how to protect a good file, and how to restore a dull one.

Now, the most important part: Know-How!

For general construction, I recommend the Navy SeaBee BU-3&2 manual, post WW-2 era. It is declassified and reprinted by Dover Publications. I keep 2 copies. One well worn for day to day usage and another nearly new for when WTSHTF. Actual Dover title is “Basic Construction Techniques for Houses and Small Buildings”, ISBN 048 620 2429

Also, the electrical equivalent, Navy EM-3&2 Manual. That is the definitive text on how to work with electrical equipment. Also from Dover, also two copies. Dover title “Basic Electricity”, ISBN 048 620 9733

For using hand metal working tools, the best I have seen is from the Henry Ford Trade School in the 30’s. I have an original, it is reprinted by Lindsay Publications. Look them up or go to www.hudsontelcom.com and find the link on the “stuff I like” page. Just look for the model engines.

Matter of fact, you might find some of my other stuff interesting. I have a number of projects where I have had to devise unconventional solutions to problems. Gets one to thinking, you know…

I still occasionally find Audel’s Books on eBay. They cover just about every thing and do it by hand. Just be sure to get older versions. I don’t trust much of anything printed after about 1964. Most of my Audel’s books date from the 40’s or earlier.

BTW, you don’t need all those measuring tools. A 3-4-5 triangle will give you a square, and almost all measurements are relative to something else. A string or stick and pencil will work just fine. Look up the “storey board” as used by the old time carpenters. I use a plumb bob, string, dividers, and a 3-4-5 when I want to play primitive. The square and the plumb will give you level. Anything else is a convenience.

And, probably just like your Pop, don’t even think of touching one of my saws. – Bill H.



Economics and Investing:

From reader J.D.: Rural America Surprisingly Prosperous, Study Finds

Reader Ben M. suggested this article: How to Tell if You are Saving Enough.

Items from The Economatrix:

Retailers Report Surprise Drop In November

Poor Report On Services Saps Stock Market Gains

Services Sector Activity, Retail Sales Disappoint

Weak Demand Puts Natural Gas Prices At 52-Week Low

North Koreans In Shock As Cash Banned

US Loses Another 169,000 Private Sector Jobs

UN Economists Fear Hard Landing For Dollar

Yen And Dollar Both Weaken

US Service Industries Unexpectedly Contract

Charting The Great World Trade Collapse

As Housing Goes, So Falls The Economy

European Banks Growing Bigger “Sowing The Seeds” Of Next Crisis

Dubai Debacle Just Tip Of Iceberg

More Evidence Gold Being Hoarded As Comex Fulfills Gold Contracts With Paper







Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 26 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 26 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Planning Ahead for Your Family Pets, by Margaret

Many of the very informative articles that have been written, talk about Getting Out Of Dodge (G.O.O.D.), plotting alternative routes, allowing for problems along the way, practising packing the vehicle and having fuel and supplies at en route stop-over points.

May I suggest that another plan that needs to be thought out ahead of time is for the family pets?

When people go away for the weekend or go on holidays, quite often a neighbour or family member comes in to feed and check up on the pets and this works out fine.
Alternatively an ice-cream container of dry food is left out for the cat or both the cat and dog go into boarding kennels. But when the Schumer occurs, these arrangements become null and void.

I’m sure animals have some form of ESP and changes can cause them to become either super-excited and uncooperative or they hide themselves away. Both possibilities will cause delays that no-one wants.
I no longer have a dog but the cats know that when their routine changes even slightly, “Something is Going to Happen.” And if you do decide that it’s time to G.O.O.D. it would be great to have reasonably calm and cooperative animals.

Some issues to address ahead of time:

  • Do your animals need medication from the vet when travelling? Do you have that medication?
  • Do you have restraints for the dog in a packed vehicle? There would be nothing worse than a vehicle full of gear and children with an excited dog bouncing off the roof. You will be stressed enough.
  • Do you have emergency food/water for your pets while travelling?
  • Have you practised packing with the cat carry-cages in place? No doubt there will be lots of last minute things from the house that get tossed into the vehicle, but please don’t make the carry-cages one of those. A cardboard box will not do.
  • How are you going to carry the gold-fish, the budgie and the guinea pigs? Are you going to take these pets with you? If you are, you will need to work out where and how their containers will fit into your vehicle. If not, I suggest that you decide now who will be given these creatures. It would be plain cruel to leave them to starve.
  • It may be possible to practise taking all of the family pets with you on your next visit to your retreat so that you can see how things work out and while you still have time to implement changes.
  • As cats in particular are territorial, you may need cat harnesses to walk them for the first week at your retreat until they realise that “This is the New Home”.

The suggestions above will probably need to be modified because every pet is different, but thinking ahead and having a plan will make your life and that of your pets less stressful in a worst case scenario.



Letter Re: Distilled Spirits for Barter

James:
First, thanks for the blog useful information is so hard to come by nowadays. With regards to alcohol I would add a few bits

First, Everclear 190 is a great addition it any backpack or bail out bag, This wonder bottle has a subject all its own. If for barter purpose you choose booze there is a bit of an OPSEC point to make. Trading liquor has risks especially if you are dealing with someone who may be looking for a lucrative target. Trading a sealed bottle of bourbon or even worse taking said bottle from a visible case can leave the impression of plenty which is simply dangerous in TEOTWAWKI. If you have liquor on hand to trade it will be important to disguise it so that you do not appear “rich” [in tangible goods]. Personally, I am not going to place a lot of faith in liquor jumping in value there are a lot of things I do use that I will need to stock up on (namely, the three Bs–Beans, Bullets, and Band-Aids). But if I were to invest in liquor I would go with no more than a case of pints of a popular brand (Jack Daniels or Jim Beam come to mind) and when it came to trading I wouldn’t bring new sealed bottles, instead I would use a small amount out of one bottle (say for a cake or sauce) and use the now not quite full bottle to trade. So now I am trading something that looks like my last bottle.( This can apply to anything being used for trade.)

Appearing like you have little, but that little will be very is hard to take can mean the difference between having a robber problem or not. – Stephen from Idaho

JWR Replies: Thanks for those important barter OPSEC tips. As I’ve mentioned before in the blog, in addition to storing denatured alcohol for external use (and as a fuel), high grade medicinal ethyl alcohol (sans denaturants, such as Everclear) is important to keep on hand, for creating your own herbal infusions and decoctions. These are described in detail in the book The Complete Medicinal Herbal, by Penelope Ody. (This was one of the late Memsahib‘s favorite books.)