Letter Re: When Unprepared Folks Show Up on Your Doorstep

Mr. Rawles;
With the current state of the country more and more people have been stepping up their preparedness. The question I get asked most is what to do with the people who say they will be over when everything falls apart.
I know you have addressed this in the past, but it is something people need to think through with the current state we are in. With my preparedness consulting I have had story after story from preparing people of family, friends and people who know they are preparing, but do not prepare themselves saying they will be there when everything falls apart.

I have used your novel “Patriots” as a guide for how to prepare for any scenarios and it mentions giving charity to those who show up and sending the unwanted on their way and keeping those who belong or can contribute to the group. For the transients or refugees this is a very good solution to the problem, but when it comes to family and people who know you are preparing it calls for a different solution or group of solutions. I hope you can give some advice to everyone facing this problem. We can go into OPSEC when it comes to not telling folks what they are doing, but there have been mistakes made and it is hard to hide from non-preparing family and for them to understand not to talk about it or you are trying to network with people to get a group together and the information spreads.

Some of the stories I have heard are:

There have been several version of this first one, but it is basically the same falling out in a group and the unwanted plan a unwelcome return.
“We had a member of our group and he turned out to be a slob, was not preparing and thought that a case of ammo and a rifle was all you needed and they would take whatever else was needed from the weak. They politely told him that he was not welcome and would not sharing in the preparations. This person is now contacting the group, saying if it hits the fan that they “will be over”.
The group believes they will have to defend themselves from this former member who will bring his spouse and children with him.”

“We have been preparing for several years and have been trying to get family members, both close and distant involved in a group.When things go bad they [declare that they] are all coming over.
We do not have the room for the extra people in our home. We do not have enough food for the extra people. We do not have other supplies they will need to live here. They do not have the mindset to endure a long term situation nor will they contribute to the survival of the group.We already have a small group of like-minded people we have networked with and are either leaving supplies here or will be bringing their supplies when they come and we have enough for only them.”

With our networking efforts we have talked to many people and have picked up some good people to be in a group. With the economy going down the tubes we are having past contacts talking to us and they plan on showing up if it hits the fan.”

“We have had someone gossip about our preparations and now we have people saying they will be over and we do not even know these people.
How may people know we are preparing and how many are going to show up and what are they going to do to us if we turn them away or will they just take our supplies?”

Respectfully, – Ron from Ohio

JWR Replies: Based on what I read in e-mails, nearly all SurvivalBlog readers–save a few that are utter recluses that have few (or no) family ties–all go through the same thing. This most commonly happens at holiday gatherings, when “Cousin Bob” first teases you for having “that mountain of storage food in your basement”, but then slyly adds “…but I know where I’ll go when things fall apart.” This is the same Cousin Bob that has frittered away his earnings on plasma big screen HDTVs, Jet Skis, and BluRay DVDs. My advice is to be blunt and forthright. Tell Cousin Bob that he’s had the same period warning that you have had, and that he’s had comparable resources available to prepare. Depending on your predisposition, you might say: “You’ve been warned. You must make adequate preparations for your own family. Period.” Hopefully that will spur your relatives into action.

Letter Re: Useful References on Metalworking

I recommend two books to help our readers understand metalworking. They might never need these, but they’re at least useful for understanding what’s involved:.

1. Wayne Goddard’s $50 Knife Shop

2. The Modern Blacksmith

And if you want to go a step further, there’s a nice compendium called “Useful Farm Implements”, though I suspect we’ll just focus on more immediate books like “Gardening When It Counts” though I personally recommend not using animal protein powder as a soil and feed amendment [as recommended in that book]. Prions, ya know?

On a more personal note, I remain stunned that the economic crash has driven down the price of oil instead of up to the stratosphere. Stunned, I tell you. Its funny that no matter how much education you manage, how much study you do, and calculation, you can still miss things. Good call on the economic crash, BTW. You pinned it down, 10 years ago. Must feel slightly queasy to find yourself right. The irony of course is that there’s been no civil uprising mess, so the strategy isn’t working yet. I try and stay fluid and adaptable instead of committing to a single strategy for success. But I don’t have a family to protect either. Keep well and don’t let reality get you down. Best, – Inyokern

Letter Re: The CDC’s Suggestions on Preparing for Future Flu Pandemics

Mr Rawles:
My sister-in-law works for one of the large food bakeries. They make a well-known cracker that is purchased by a large portion of the US population every day. She manages health and safety for a number of their bakeries and recently attended a conference on pandemics hosted by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The CDC is holding these conferences for companies producing staple foodstuffs as they say it isn’t “if” we will see a flu pandemic but “when”.
The conference was a real eye-opener for my sister-in-law. The CDC says that we will either have a flu pandemic or avian flu pandemic within the next 10 years (likely earlier rather than later). The following recommendations for key personnel of the bakery was provided by the CDC as they believe we will see absenteeism over 50% during a pandemic. They want food manufacturers to be able to continue production during a pandemic.
Here are the top three:
1. Have a supply of Tamiflu on hand. Roche offers companies a program that will store Tamiflu for them in advance for a fee. Roche will rotate the stock on a regular basis to guarantee freshness and ship it immediately to key personnel in the event of a pandemic. Individuals should get their physician to write a prescription and keep some on hand. Tamiflu will be in short supply during a pandemic.
2. Get a flu shot every year. The CDC is making a concerted effort to get flu shots offered to everyone, not just targeted groups anymore.
3. Get a pneumonia vaccination. Pneumonia is the actual cause of death in many flu cases. The CDC is now recommending that key personnel get this vaccine. Many flu shot clinics also offer the pneumococcal vaccine as well. You will have to be persistent in requesting it as they are hesitant to give it to the general population. The CDC is trying to limit it in order to keep it available for targeted groups.
It will be very difficult to limit contact to both other people and livestock in the event of a pandemic. By following these three recommendations, you should be able to reduce your chances of dying during a pandemic. – Rangemaster

Odds ‘n Sods:

More gloomage from Cheryl, our Economic Editor: Germans Freeze £21 Billion in Property Fund (“Nearly €30bn of German property funds were frozen between Tuesday and Friday last week in what industry experts fear could foreshadow a UK commercial real estate collapse.”) — The Federal Reserve is Inflating at 341% Per Annum — Cash Was King, Now Gold Is God — Fed Interest Rate Cut May End Up Making Matters Worse (“The Federal Open Market Committee’s half-point cut in its Federal Funds target does not address the leverage and credit issues in the banking system.”) — Gold, Faith And Credit (The Mogambo Guru) — Peter Schiff on Glenn Beck: Global Economic Crisis In Perspective

   o o o

Reader Jordan S. mentioned Wikipedia as a potential survival reference. He noted since the Internet won’t be available in a Grid Down situation, it is best to download a snapshot of the current Wikipedia articles, in HTML format sans pictures). Jordan notes: “You’ll get the current version of every article. It’s large – around 14 Gigabytes, but you can store it on DVD or an external hard drive.”

   o o o

“Luddite Jean” in England sent us these economic and news headlines: Interest rates may be cut by 1% and pundits start to recognise that their predictions were too optimistic — Government ‘spend our way out of recession’ — Faulty army-issue gun that is ‘too expensive’ to fix

   o o o

Author Michael Panzner has some follow-up commentary on the scope and implications of the next Depression: Repeat the Past (and then Some)?

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The liberties of our country, the freedoms of our civil constitution are worth defending at all hazards; and it is our duty to defend them against all attacks. We have received them as a fair inheritance from our worthy ancestors: they purchased them for us with toil and danger and expense of treasure and blood, and transmitted them to us with care and diligence. It will bring an everlasting mark of infamy on the present generation, enlightened as it is, if we should suffer them to be wrested from us by violence without a struggle, or be cheated out of them by the artifices of false and designing men." – Samuel Adams (1722 -1803)

Note from JWR:

There are just two days left in the pre-election 33% off sale for the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. This course only rarely goes on sale, so don’t miss out on the discount price!

Letter Re: Seeking Advice on Discreet Carry Money Belts

Hi James,
When I traveled in Europe, I found the inside-the-waist, in-front-of-your-crotch travel pouches sold by REI and the like to be very useful for passport, ID, etc., although they do get a bit hot and whenever they get out of position, it’s hard to avoid the urge to mark yourself by adjusting them. Trying to do so in public can also get you some very strange looks. Because of all this I’ve refrained from wearing them when at home in the States, but I’m missing the comforting feeling of having extra cash and essential documents discreetly hidden. I’m imagining a money belt would be more comfortable.

You mentioned in an old post that you always wear a discreet money belt when you travel. Do you recommend a specific brand? Dress money belts are relatively easy to find, but casual/Western money belts I haven’t seen. I’m also having difficulty locating a money belt, either dress or casual, that is big/stiff enough to serve as a pistol belt for concealed or open carry.
Best Regards, – David in Pleasanton, California
:
JWR Replies: The money belt that I’ve worn off and on for the past 15+ years was made by Hamley & Company of Pendleton, Oregon. (They are old-time holster and saddle maker, established in 1883.) It is a tooled western belt that was special-ordered with the “money belt option”. The belt was fairly expensive, so I’ve deemed it to be a “weight control belt”–meaning that I don’t dare gain any weight and outgrow it!

Letter Re: Building Strength for WTSHTF Preparedness

Dear SurvivalBloggers:

Modern images of strength conjure up big pectorals and biceps and perhaps a set of 6 pack abs but are these the muscles we need to develop for WTSHTF? No, not really.
Here’s some ideas of the less romantic parts that would be useful to work on now.

1) Hand and forearm strength: Gripping, grappling and weapon retention come to mind. Consider how many things we would have to use our hands for if there were no power (and no power tools). Kneading dough, screwing screws, pulling ropes. Do you have the grip strength to carry two 5 gallon buckets full of water 1/4 a mile at 8.3 pounds per gallon? Do you have any calluses or is your job cerebral and are your hands soft and unprotected.

2) Lower back strength: Lifting, gardening and carrying a pack come to mind. Can you carry your wife or buddy if he or she were injured? Can you drag them (hand strength again)? Try pulling 150 pound person a few times across the lawn and find out.

3) Cardiovascular strength: Okay, perhaps not a strength per se, but how’s your conditioning? Can you run an 8 minute mile without cramps and total loss of fine muscle control (meaning that you can still fire your weapon accurately)? – SF in Hawaii

Letter Re: A Useful Heated Steel Color Emission Chart

Dear Jim,
That chart that you posted on Saturday only applies to steel alloys. At a given temperature, oxidation will show those colors. The brighter colors are incandescent colors that are emission, not absorption colors. This is a good reference for heat treating metal, but only works if you know the alloy in question.

It is actually best to use that chart on overcast days or in shadow. Bright sun will generally cause one to excessively heat in the incandescent range, leading to red-shortness, cracks, decarburizing and burning. – Michael Z. Williamson

Odds ‘n Sods:

Congolese behind rebel lines try to return home. Once again, we see that the last thing you want to be is a refugee–or an “Internally Displaced Person” (IDP) in the modern parlance.

   o o o

Ted suggested this article over at Gold-Eagle, by Scott Wright: Commodities Bull Market?

   o o o

Reader Marsha U. asked about a good place to find full capacity magazines for her FN PS90 and HK93. (She notes: “I feel the need to stock up well before Bush leaves office.” ) For commercial vendors, I recommend CDNN Sports. For finding private sellers, I recommend Buddy Hinton’s Boards.

   o o o

Jerrold W. sent us this video link: Hack a Padlock

Note from JWR:

There are just a few days left in the pre-election 33% off sale for the “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course. This course only rarely goes on sale, so don’t miss out on the discount price! BTW, the demand has been so great that a rush printing had to be scheduled. There may be brief delay before some of the most recent orders are shipped.

Letter Re: A Useful Heated Steel Color Emission Chart

Dear James:
I came across this table in a reference book and thought it may be useful to everyone. Note: This chart should not be used as a guide to combating fires. Remember all fires are dangerous, and you should call the fire department, if that is a possibility, when you see flames. All degrees are in Fahrenheit below.

Yellow 450 degrees Fahrenheit
Brown to Purple 550 degrees Fahrenheit
Blue 600 degrees Fahrenheit
Faint Red 900 degrees Fahrenheit
Dark Cherry Red 1,100 degrees Fahrenheit
Full Cherry Red 1,400 degrees Fahrenheit
Salmon 1,600 degrees Fahrenheit
Lemon 1,800 degrees Fahrenheit.
White 2,200 degrees Fahrenheit
Sparkling White 2,400 degrees Fahrenheit

Regards, – Mikael

JWR Replies: Of course all the usual torch and metal-working shop safety rules apply.

That chart, BTW, is handy companion piece to the Combustion Temperature Reference that was posted previously in SurvivalBlog. I recommend printing out hard copies of both posts for your shop reference binders. Keep in mind the standard provisos that the true measurement of the volatility of a stored material is its “flash point”, which in most cases is considerably lower than the flame point figures noted in the Combustion Temperature Reference.

Also, when using color as a reference for gauging the temperature, keep in mind that the ambient light available can skew the color observed. Holding up a piece of metal in the dim light of a blacksmithy will not show the same color as holding up the same piece of metal heated to the same temperature in bright daylight. This can lead to heat-treating errors. This was best illustrated in the classic book “Hatcher’s Notebook.” In it, Colonel Julian Hatcher recounted the story of the “Low Number Springfields”, that many shooters in the current generation might not have heard: Here it is in a nutshell: The smiths at the Springfield and Rock Island Armories were manufacturing Model 1903 Springfield rifles. One of the steps in the process was heat-treating the receivers to a certain color of redness. This was before the days of precise industrial pyrometers–back when heart treating was judged “by eye”.) It was found that some of those receivers failed–due to the heat treating being of insufficient hardness. The Board of Inquiry discovered that some receivers that were heat treated on overcast days, lacked sufficient heat treating (and blew up dramatically when fired), while those made on sunny days had the specified strength. This was because on overcast days, the heated receivers showed the correct “color” when they had not yet actually reached the requisite temperature. This failure in process control was of course soon corrected, but ever since, “low number Springfields” have not been trusted for full-pressure pressure .30-06 loads. (The manufacturing transition BTW, was with Springfield Armory M1903 rifles that had serial numbers below 800,000 and Rock Island M1903 rifles with serial numbers below 285,507.) Just an interesting historical tidbit…

Letter Re: Prisons and Other Institutions Amidst a Societal Collapse?

Hello Jim,
I work at a Correctional Facility. It is a Corrections Corporation of America (CCA) prison with some 1,900 inmates currently housed.

Our facility is cross-fenced inside with a 12 foot fence topped with the military razor wire. Yes, you can get across it but you are going to pay a price. They have tried that here and the one that got across would have died in hours from the cuts without an emergency room.

I have experienced a full blown riot. This was only 98 prisoners but they trashed the whole mess hall and it spilled out into two of the fenced off areas.

These interior fenced in areas can be gated off to reduce movement.

It is just not possible that the staff could not get control if they have not exhausted their supply of CS [tear] gas. One of those large CS guns can fill a large outdoor area with enough gas to choke down the best of them.Then you cuff them all and they are contained. I have seen this happen.

All of the admin buildings have top positions from which the COs [Correctional Officers]–note they are not called “guards” anymore–can dispense from shoulder weapons canisters to any point in the yard to supplement the big foggers.

Is the potential for losing control a problem? Yes, of course…

Is anybody at our prison talking about it? Me… but not the administration that I know of.

My county sheriff (headquartered some 25 miles away) has discussed this with me in detail. He is prepared to protect this area if a general prisoner break takes place.

And when the electric locks fail they stay closed. You can only open them with a key at that point.

So, if the inmates take control of a few pods and some interior yard space: You retreat behind a series of doors and barred gates until you are all back beyond “central”. Central is the command and control center with all the electronics. If you lock [the facility] down and all the doors through to the admin area and leave by the front gate. The only way they can get out is under the fence or over the fence with the concertina wire on top.

Most will die inside once the water is shut off and they strip the kitchen. Most of the food is stored beyond the kitchen in separate security areas. Ultimately the smart ones will try to retrieve enough solid items to build a ramp up to the top of the wire; or dig underneath. After constructing a ramp they’ll probably throw a couple of mattresses over the top and try to get over the first fence. Yes, that’s right, the first fence. But then 15 feet away is the second fence just like the first one. But now they have to build another ramp by moving the objects up the top of the first fence and pushing them over. By this time the locals may be barbecuing just across the fence and shooting one or two now and then just for fun…

So, in my estimation, getting out of our Correctional Facility will not be easy.

I have sat in my car in the parking lot waiting for time to go in for my shift and looked at the security fence and thought “just how would the inmates get across this?” Given enough time, yes they will do it. But only under conditions where they are not opposed from the outside. But any locals who oppose them will keep them inside until they turn to drinking the blood of the weaker inmates. Cordially, – Joe in the Midwest

Odds ‘n Sods:

Ready Made Resources (one of our original advertisers) just launched an unusual 25% off sale on Mountain House and AlpenAire freeze-dried foods. Unlike many storage food dealers, they actually keep considerable stock in-hand. This is a limited-time offer, so don’t delay in placing your orders!

   o o o

They say a picture is with a thousand words. Well, these photos are worth 100 Billion: Chuck mailed us a link to a series of amazing photos from Zimbabwe, posted at blogoncherry. Make sure that you scroll all the way down to see the Z$100 Billion note. I suppose that next year’s “reform” in Zimbabwe will be mandating wider tapes for cash registers, to make room for more digits. Seriously, Comrade Mugabe and his band of fools need to be escorted at gunpoint to the airport. Oh yes, I should also mention that if you want to keep current on Zimbabwe, then read Cathy Buckle’s blog.

   o o o

Stephanie sent us a link to this US Army article: Blending used oil and vehicle fuel, that describes how to blend used crankcase oil with diesel fuel. Provisos are in order: All of the usual fuel and oil handling safety precautions apply. Avoid letting used motor oil contact your skin, since it is a carcinogen. I also have my doubts that USEPA would approve, but this is something to keep in mind for stretching your supply of diesel fuel in a post-disaster situation.

   o o o

The latest economic news and commentary, courtesy of Cheryl: Wall Street Bolts Higher To Add To Week’s Large Gains — Evidence Of A Recession Piles Higher With New Data — Japan Cuts Interest Rates to 0.30% — US Heads Towards Recession — Interest Rate Conundrum Heralds More Market Distress — US Fed Zero-Interest-Rate Policy Coming? — Financial And Geopolitical Forecasts For 4Q 2008 — Stock Market Forecast Current And For The Next 30 Years — Florida’s Freedom Bank Closed By Regulators; 17th Failure This Year — Panic Strikes Hungary, Poland Borrowers As Banks Cut Dollar, Franc Loans