The Ishapore 2A1: A Budget Battle Rifle, by JIR

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For budget preppers, I think the Enfield bolt action rifle is an excellent choice for a main battle rifle. Most of them are British weapons chambered for .303, which is an obsolete caliber. I don’t recommend a .303 weapon, but it would be perfectly adequate if you could get ammunition. A better choice is the Ishapore 2A1 rifle. It’s a redesigned Lee Enfield SMLE Mk III (one of the best rifles ever issued to an army) but chambered for 7.62×51 (7.62 NATO) and has a 10 or 12 round magazine. (The later production 2A1s have a 12 round magazine. Mine both do). This is a no-nonsense weapon in competent hands and fit for serious business.

A little known feature of the Enfield SMLE family of weapons is the speed sight, which also makes a pretty good night sight. These rifles have a U shaped post or frame around both the rear and front sights. If you paint these posts with white or luminous paint, you can quickly index the rifle in almost complete darkness. The posts are large and easy to see. It works as well as most night sights and it’s free.

Other than painting the night posts to increase visibility, I don’t suggest modifying this rifle in any way. It’s a fine weapon just like it is. One of it’s few faults is that mounting a scope is not very easy or neat because it was not designed for that. Most scopes also interfere with the capability to feed from clips. If you want to modify it much and “trick it out”, you will probably be happier with a modern rifle. Right out of the box, the SMLE is pretty nice, but it’s not easy to improve.

The 2A1 is fairly heavy at roughly 10 pounds loaded with a sling, and it kicks slightly harder than a .303 SMLE (or a M1A for that matter), but it feels and shoots almost the same as the SMLE. Here is why I love it:

  • It fires 7.62 NATO rounds. They are standardized and easy to get. Because it has a gentle bolt action, It will also shoot .308 civilian ammunition with no danger of a slam-fire. Some .308 rounds are reportedly a little hot for a 7.62 NATO rifle, but the tolerances of the Ishapores are pretty generous. I have never heard of an actual case of one being damaged in any way by firing .308 rounds. I routinely fire .308 factory loads and reload the brass. I have never noted any signs of too much pressure or deformed brass from the chamber dimensions.
  • All SMLE load from stripper clips. This is a very powerful feature that was once considered mandatory for a military rifle, but it’s mostly a forgotten loading method these days. The original SMLE uses 5 round charger clips, but you can get 10 round (M-14) clips for the nato rounds and they fit the Ishapore perfectly. NcStar .308 stripper clips are available on Amazon, cost 13 dollars for 20 clips and work well in the Ishapore. Once you get used to using clips, the 2A1 reloads very fast and the sustained rate of fire using clips and the Enfield action is excellent. While not as fast as an automatic, it is still pretty good. With practice an average shooter can maintain 20 rounds per minute of accurate fire until the rifle catches fire from the heat. You can shoot twice that fast for a short string. BTW, the speed record for a bolt action rifle is held by the SMLE. Check out this article. It’s not made very clear in this article, but the standard was 15 hits in one minute on a 12 inch round target at 200 yards (not 300 yards). Every recruit in 1914 had to be able to do at least that well. The real pros were twice that fast. In competent hands, this is a real killer.
    I have trained with these rifles and I am confident in their ability to hold their own in a gunfight. I can sustain well over 20 rounds per minute and hold every one within a E-silhouette target at 200m with absolute surety (I can’t do very much better with an automatic). This may not sound like very good shooting, but you should try it with your choice of weapons. I consider it more than adequate. I carry a 2A1 in preference to my M1A (which is also no slouch). After training with it for a while, the SMLE rifle just feels good to me.
  • 3. It is very accurate. If you take your time and really aim, you can hit about anything you can see using only iron sights. Most of the models I have fired are around 1 MOA right from the arsenal, which is better than I can shoot. The sights are excellent and adjustable out to 800 meters (and that’s no lie! It will reach out that far accurately enough to kill someone’ in a few rounds if they don’t take some serious cover.
  • 4. It’s super tolerant of dirty or old ammunition. It always shoots. If you reload, you can load light loads for small game. (Warning: Be careful to use a safe load , as very light cast lead loads can leave a bullet lodged in the bore, which might then cause a virtual detonation if followed up by another shot!). I use a 120 grain cast lead bullet and 5 grains of Unique and the report is about the same as an air rifle. If you don’t reload, you can buy a chamber adapter for .32 auto and shoot commercial ammunition with similar results. The 70 grain Speer loads sound like an air rifle and don’t destroy small game too badly.
  • 5. It’s cheap to own a complete weapon system. You can still get one for around 200 bucks and since you don’t have to buy scopes and rings to have a good weapon, there are no hidden costs. Clips are dirt-cheap and can be left loaded for eternity without damage. I suggest a shoulder bag to carry clips of ammunition. This is much cheaper than web gear and maybe more convenient and faster. You can use the money you save to buy more ammunition…you will need it.

So, what’s the catch? Here it is, and it’s a big one. You have to train with this rifle. It doesn’t shoot itself. You have to manually chamber each round and then get back on target. You also have to practice reloading from charger clips to develop any kind of speed. Get some dummy rounds (at least 20 if you are serious) and dry fire it until you can do it in your sleep. Load and fire thousands of times from the standing, kneeling and prone positions. Aim your rifle at a distant target each time you dry fire it and concentrate on marksmanship and speed. Then take it to the range and do it with live rounds. This is no M16 that can be trained using only a couple of hundred live rounds. You will need a thousand at least.

I wouldn’t feel under-dressed carrying a 2A1 in a gunfight unless it happens at extreme close range. Even then, it’s hard to feel too outgunned carrying a SMLE. It’s a very solid, reliable shooting platform that will never let you down. Having used a M16 and variants in the Army, I love the solid, feel of the SMLE. If you are on a budget and can’t afford a quality automatic, scope, and lots of magazines, the 2A1 (or even a .303 SMLE or No4 rifle) gives you the ability to buy a complete weapon system for a fifth the price. The 2A1 is (IMHO) a viable choice for a survival MBR. regards, – JIR

Letter Re: Some Observations on Fortifications Versus Camouflaged Retreats

Last night I watched Jesse Ventura’s “Conspiracy Theory” show which centered around the government’s cover up of the coming 2012 scenario. The show featured people converting missile silos to survival bunkers. Historical precedent will quickly point out a glaring problem with this approach.

Consider that relative to the technological level of their day, European castles were more heavily fortified than any bunker being built today (by virtue of the fact that your average monarch of Medieval times had far more resources available than anybody seeking to build a shelter). Still, no castle ever withstood siege indefinitely. No matter how much planning, preparation and defense was put into a stronghold, it was eventually overrun, and in these cases the incentive to do so was a fraction of what it will be in the coming scenarios. Today the ante has been upped; more tech exists to create these bunkers, but the same level of tech exists to break down their defenses and it all comes out in the wash. Bunkers will suffer the same fate that any medieval castle suffered, if people know they exist. Given the social chaos that’s going to hit well before the 2012 solar event(s), history will repeat itself. If people know a shelter exists, it’s going to become a target when they become desperate enough (which isn’t going to be long). Being holed up in one of these places, you just became a resource for every starving person who didn’t plan ahead. Hordes will gather in desperation to raid a shelter and retrieve whatever is inside. What’s actually inside doesn’t matter; what will drive these hordes will be what they think is inside.

The best possible defense is to be invisible. People won’t raid what they don’t know is there. My own plans are quite meticulous in the area of staying hidden. Nobody in town (a rural Central Georgia town) knows that I even know what a shelter is. The subject is never discussed. Building is done in secret. Rammed Earth construction is used for the shelter itself because I don’t have to go out and purchase an inordinate amount of materials which people will be wondering what I did with. What I do need to purchase is broken up among various hardware stores in the metro Atlanta area so that I don’t spend too much time or money in any given store.

What about covert power sources? Here is one theoretical approach: Milkweed grows just about anywhere; it grows very quickly and breaks down even faster in salt water. Since salt water is an excellent conductor of electricity, putting current through the water may help the milkweed break down even faster. The goal is to generate methane with the milkweed dissolving in an enclosed container. Methane can run a generator. Organic trash goes into this container as well.

Air filtration has outside air running through several stages of an algae-rich water system; exhaust air goes through the same system. Algae converts CO2 to oxygen quite efficiently. A very high voltage Tesla coil in the filtration water ionizes the water and breaks down impurities; this is applied in a later stage of filtration, after the incoming air has passed through the algae-rich water stage. Further filtering (charcoal, etc.) as a final stage completes the process.

Waste is recycled. Like a septic tank, solid waste is separated from liquid waste. The solid waste is dried (in an enclosed airtight container), pulverized, then burned to help heat the shelter. Handling of liquid waste is still being explored; ammonia and other chemicals need to be extracted but can be bonded with other elements to produce something useful.

Go too deep underground and you get into very negative biological effects on the human body. These are very subtle and gradual to start, but with prolonged, consistent immersion in a deep underground environment, they do intensify.

From the beginning of time, history has shown that unless you have a Mongol horde behind you, you’re going to fall if there’s any reason to attack you. The Maginot Line was simply marched around and France fell in a few days. The Normandy defenses took a lot of American lives but still fell in a matter of hours. Those attacking you will not be restricted to isolated individuals wandering onto your land. If it’s perceived that you have goodies inside (i.e. food), you’re going to face mobs and hordes that your little home defenses are not going to compete with. Staying hidden is your only real defense. The government thinks they’re going to be safe in their massive bunkers, but they hired countless contractors who helped build the things. These contractors, in desperate times, are going to gather together large assault forces (not difficult to do when everybody is starving) and go after what’s inside. My guess is, nearly every government bunker is going to be overrun well before the 2012 event(s) ever occur because social breakdown is going to hit well before that time and the necessity of raiding these shelters will be extreme.

Historical precedent says that you’re not going to fight your way through this, no matter what you do. If people know you’re there, they’re going to come after what you have, in droves. The best option anybody has is to avoid being attacked in the first place. The only way to do this is to remain hidden. – Chris

Letter Re: A Composting Hot Water Heater Experiment

Dear James Wesley,
The following is a method of obtaining hot water in an off-grid situation. Even more exciting than the 6.5 earthquake this week was our new hot shower! We still have “no” indoor plumbing on our rather recent homestead. Showers in hot weather consist of a hot garden hose. Cold weather requires heating water on the stove and pouring it over ones self while standing on the yurt porch. Or just a spit bath with a washcloth if it’s too cold to stand on the porch.

But I have seen what other clever off-grid folks cook up for showers, and so we now have a compost water heater. We built a pile about 8′ across and 2.5′ deep, then laid a 300′ roll of 3/4″ poly pipe in the center and piled on more leaves, manure, hay, coffee grounds and household scraps, leaving the ends exposed. Hooked one end up to the garden hose, and the other end to an outdoor shower
stand I bought some years back but never used. We set it up inside the greenhouse so it is private and weather protected.

Presto! After “cooking” for a few days, our water was up to the mid 90 degree range, and 300′ makes a decently long shower. By today,I found that it is hot enough to require mixing in some cold water! I have never built a compost pile quite this large before, but most of my big piles have been getting up to 150 – 160 degrees for a week or more, then gradually cooling back down. We expect to get a few
weeks worth of hot showers out of this pile. As it begins to cool down into the low 90s again, I will build another pile adjacent to it and use the second 300′ roll of pipe we bought on sale awhile back. By running the pre-warmed water through the second pile, we should have a great supply. Sheer luxury. And free, except for the labor, since all the equipment was purchased months or years ago and for other purposes. And when it is all said and done, I’ll still have the compost for the garden. Kinda helps balance out all the gray skies and mud. – Respectfully yours, T. & D. in California

Letter Re: An Interesting 19th Century Formulary Book

James Wesley,

About 40 years ago I bought a copy of the book ”Dr. Chase’s Third, Last and Complete Receipt Book” printed in 1887 at an estate sale. It was written by Dr. Alvin Wood Chase and published after his death. It is a how-to jewel filled with general information about just about every aspect of Civil War era American life. Food preservation, storage and preparation in a pre-electrical time, along with animal husbandry and general farming and medicine make it a very interesting and potentially helpful read. It can be viewed online at www.archive.org. The site is by Internet Archives. Unfortunately it cannot be copied. I did buy another original [hard copy bok] for backup a few years ago at Amazon for $18. Dr. Chase led an interesting life and was a promoter extraordinaire and his biography can be found online. God Bless and wishing you and yours a Blessed New Year. – Ken S.

JWR Replies: I love those old formulary books, too! But I must add this proviso: Keep in mind that 19th Century safety standards were considerably more relaxed than today’s, so old formularies and “farm knowledge” books often do not include any safety warnings. Use common sense around chemicals, flammables, unwarded gears and cutting blades, heavy objects, and so forth. Stay safe!

Economics and Investing:

Tim B. sent this: Dollar Crisis Looms if US Doesn’t Curb Debt

And in related news, GG sent us this: US must cut spending to save AAA rating, warns Fitch

GG also sent this one: The Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis, by Nouriel Roubini and Arpitha Bykere

Yet another from GG: A Season Of Discontent: The only alternatives for which majorities express “a lot” of trust to help manage financial risk are close family members (64 percent) and their own efforts (74 percent)

Items from The Economatrix:

Stocks Rise as Optimism Builds About Earnings

Retails Sales Fall Unexpectedly; Jobless Claims Up

Scariest Chart of the Day

US Has Record December Budget Gap of $91.9 Billion

Odds ‘n Sods:

News from across the Atlantic: Panic buying hits supermarkets as shelves stripped of essentials over snow fears. (Thanks to Chad S. for the link.)

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A SurvivalBlog reader took the initiative and had a small batch of subdued Battle of Bennington flag shoulder patches custom made. This is the same flag used on our OPSEC hats and T-shirts, but in subdued brown and black colors. He told me that he now has just 50 left, that he is now selling right near his cost, at $2.75 each. Contact:: opsecflag@verizon.net to reserve yours!

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Who’s running Haiti? No one, say the people

Note from JWR:

Today we present two entries for Round 26 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. both are on the subject of survival dentistry.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 26 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Dental Preparedness, by Pat

You and your group are sitting around a roaring campfire enjoying the end of a long days hunting. You bite down on some trail mix and suddenly get a shooting pain in your mouth. You’ve just broken your first molar and are four hours from the nearest dentist. Now what? Believe it or not, this happens more often than we would like to believe. In a survival scenario, it may be days or weeks or never that you get to a dentist. So, what do you do? 

The most important thing to do is to prepare for a dental emergency, just like you have prepared for food, electricity, shelter and self-defense. Prevention is the key to avoiding these situations.   What does that mean? We have heard it since we were kids, “Brush twice a day, floss, and see your dentist twice a year.” Routine visits to the dentist can often times prevent those emergencies from happening. Often times those small cavities can be taken care of before they get out of control requiring crowns, root canals or extractions.

Brushing and flossing regularly make the difference. When under stress the body will tend to develop inflammation more easily, including gingivitis, an inflammation of the gum tissue. So, when prepping for the worst-case scenario, be sure you have multiple toothbrushes and plenty of floss. In a pinch, you can use your finger or a washcloth to wipe the teeth clean.  Even a twig can be used to stimulate the gums and clean the teeth.

So, what should you pack in your medical kit for dental emergencies? Here are some basics that need to be included:

  1. Dental floss- also good for tying things down in a pinch.
  2. Dental wax- can be melted down and used to make a candle if needed. Should be a soft type of wax.
  3. Some type of Temporary filling material such as Cavit
  4. Temporary dental cement such as Den-temp for re-cementing crowns.
  5. Cotton pellets for use with;
  6. Oil of cloves, which is a substitute for Eugenol
  7. A set of dental tweezers
  8. Tight fitting latex or vinyl gloves. The mouth carries more bacteria than any place in the body.

What causes a toothache and what should you do about it? A toothache is the result of injury to the nerve of the tooth. This can be the result of trauma or a deep cavity. If the nerve becomes infected, it can result in an abscess, which is an infection of the bone around the tooth that can be extremely painful. Often times an abscess can cause swelling around the tooth. The infection can spread to other parts of the head and neck resulting in difficulty swallowing and even in the ability to breath.  This type of infection, if left untreated, can eventually cause an infection of the blood, which can lead to death. Don’t mess around with it.

How do we treat this on our own? First, figure out which tooth is causing the problem. Be sure the area in the tooth  is cleaned out.  Take a cotton pellet and soak it in Oil of Cloves, and place it in the cavity. Be sure you don’t get it on the soft tissue because it can burn.  Other products you can use include Dent’s Toothache Drops, Orajel and Red Cross Toothache Medicine. When you have the cotton in place, cover it up with some Cavit or other temporary dental filling.

For pain, I highly recommend using 400mg of Ibuprofen taken with 800 mg of Tylenol at the same time, every 4-6 hours. If that doesn’t do the trick then a narcotic such as Codeine or Vicodin can be taken every 4-6 hours. Be sure to take these with food. If infection is present, an antibiotic should be taken for 5-7 days. Under no circumstances should you place aspirin on or next to the tooth. It can cause serious burns to the gum tissue.

What about treating gum inflammation, commonly known as gingivitis? This is usually the result of poor oral hygiene. Proper brushing and flossing can prevent it. If pain and bleeding are taking place, increasing your brushing and flossing can often help.  Be sure that you are getting enough Vitamin C in your diet, a deficiency can also have a negative impact on the gums. A side note on gum inflammation: Studies have shown that people with bleeding gums have a substantially higher incidence of heart attack and stroke.

So, you bite into a nice leg of venison and break off a filling, what now? If you have access to a dentist, get to them as soon as possible. If that is not possible, you can use a small amount of temporary filling material such as Cavit to fill the hole. Be sure to bite down on the material while it is soft so it will not interfere with your bite after it hardens. In a pinch you can use some soft dental wax to fill the cavity.

Crowns (caps), inlays and onlays can come out when you eat sticky foods such as caramels or taffy. If the tooth isn’t sensitive, save the restoration and take it to a dentist as soon as you can. If that is not possible, or the tooth is sensitive, it may be necessary to try and re-cement the crown temporarily. To do this, clean out any material on the inside of the restoration.  Mix a thin layer of temporary dental cement such as Den-temp and place it inside the restoration.  Carefully align the restoration with your tooth and gently bite it down all the way to place. Since the crown is only in temporarily, be very careful about chewing on it, so that you don’t jar it lose and swallow it. See a dentist as soon as possible.

What happens to a tooth if you fall or get hit in the mouth? Usually this can result in injury to the upper front teeth. The teeth can be knocked out of position, either forward or backward. They can be loose or hanging out of their sockets. Or they can be knocked out completely. If possible, see a dentist immediately. If this isn’t possible, the tooth can gently be repositioned to line up with the other teeth. Be aware that this process can be extremely painful.  Biting on a piece of gauze gently can help hold it in position.  Get to a dentist as soon as you can so that the tooth can be splinted to other teeth. 
           
A tooth that has been completely knocked out is known as an avulsion.  The first 30 minutes of a knocked out tooth are the most important. If treated correctly, the tooth can often be saved. If the tooth can be replaced in the socket within the first 30 minutes, there is a good chance that the body will accept it. After about 30 minutes the body will treat it as a foreign object and reject the tooth. 
           
Once the tooth has been found, pick it up by the crown, not the root and gently clean it off using sterile water or milk.  Use gauze to stop any bleeding from the socket in the mouth.  Gently place the tooth back in the socket and using steady pressure, push it back into place.  Have the person use gentle biting pressure on some gauze and get to a dentist ASAP to have the tooth stabilized. If for some reason the tooth can’t be immediately placed back in the mouth, place it in a container of Hank’s solution, designed specifically for this situation. If this is unavailable, use a container of sterile saline or milk and get the person to the dentist immediately.

As with any other type of prepping, preparation for dental emergencies is extremely important and needs to be well planned out. The nice thing about preparing for a dental emergency is that it is not very expensive to do. See your dentist regularly, brush and floss, and Keep Smiling.

Survival Dentistry, by Dr. Dent

Introduction
There seems to be a lot of talk among the survivalist community regarding dental care and particularly dental extractions.  I am a practicing dentist at an urgent care facility and have addressed thousands of patients in varying situations that have had abscessed teeth that require extraction, and have subsequently extracted thousands of teeth.  I would like to provide some insight on dental care and in particular on the subject of tooth extraction and the materials required to perform a successful extraction without complicating the existing dental problem.  Also note that many medical problems particularly those relating to bleeding, stress, blood pressure, etc will additionally complicate things.

Prevention
First, I will point out the obvious due to a nagging sense of professional obligation.  Prevention is the best medicine.  Topical application of fluoride is critical to preventing a cavity that may put you in a bad situation.  Brushing your teeth with an abrasive (toothpaste or otherwise) that does not contain fluoride will be of marginal benefit, however, the real bulk of the cavity prevention will be significantly diminished.  If your retreat location is supplied by a natural water source (spring, pond, well, etc) it might be prudent to have it tested for fluoride content.  If your water is high in fluoride then you could utilize it as a topical mouth rinse (i.e. hold it on your teeth, the longer the better) .  If not consider stockpiling fluoride containing toothpaste or mouth rinse.  I know this is stretching it a bit, but flossing: would it really kill you?  The natural reduction in the amount of refined sugar that you consume will also benefit you.

Equipment
Now that that is out of the way, here is a list of the things I would consider necessary for taking out a tooth.

  1. Anesthetic-  Obviously this is not “necessary” but will make the experience must more enjoyable for all parties involved.  Lidocaine and septocaine are both common local anesthetics and sufficient for all dental work.  Septocaine is my preference because it comes in 4% formulations that just plain work better.  Upper anesthetic is applied to both the check and palate side of the tooth in question.  For the lower numbing is much more difficult.  Anesthetic must be applied high in the jaw bone.  As a general rule, have the patient open as wide as possible and you should see a fold on the cheeks posterior to the teeth.  Put the needle just anterior to that fold and aim toward the TMJ.  Injecting adjacent to the tooth is also helpful but will not be sufficient for complete anesthesia.  Assuming you have access and intend to stockpile these things (a syringe, needles, and anesthetic) I would recommend reviewing and perhaps printing for your survival library the following web pages (not mine, just nice pictures): http://www.fice.com/course/FDE0010/c12/p01.htm  http://www.fice.com/course/FDE0010/c12/p02.htm
  2. Dental mirror- being able to see is good.
  3. Bite block- This is just a piece of rubber that is designed to prop the person’s mouth open.  It will come in especially handy if you don’t have anesthetic.
  4. Straight elevators- One with a small tip (2mm-3mm wide), one with a medium tip (3mm – 4.5mm wide)
  5. Extraction forceps- #150 – Universal upper, #151 Universal lower, #23 Cowhorn

One additional thing you could do to potentially make your life easier.  Have every member of your retreat group obtain a copy of their latest panoramic x-ray from their dentist.  This is the big x-ray they take that images all of your teeth and the jaw bones.  In particular take note of any upper teeth that have roots that approximate the sinuses, any teeth with extra or curved roots, or any teeth with bulbous roots.  Don’t worry too much about keeping these records up to date.  What you are concerned with is the root structure of the teeth which doesn’t change over time.

With these basic tools you should have the equipment required to extract almost any tooth. 

Dental Assessment
When one of your retreat members presents with a dental problem first evaluate your situation.  Teeth with large cavities, cracked, or broken teeth will likely require extraction.  If you try to put off extracting a tooth because it “just isn’t that bad yet” it will likely be abscessed and be exponentially worse (with or without anesthetic) when you actually do get the tooth extracted.  As much as you won’t want to do it at the time, act early.  When a tooth starts to hurt and no dental care is available, take care of it before it gets infected and threatens your life rather than just your tooth. 

If, however, you miss the early action window and are presented with an abscessed tooth (and here be abscessed I am referring to draining puss/visibly swollen) consider a course of antibiotics or making a small incision into the swelling to allow the infection to drain before attempting tooth extraction.  Contrary to popular belief, this isn’t because there is an increased risk of infection (the chance of infection is 100% it’s already infected).  The real reason is twofold.  First, it will be a lot less painful to have the tooth extracted.  Second, if the patient is more comfortable it will make it easier for the operator to get the tooth out.

Once you’ve decided there is a problem (whether you are early or late) the first step is to decide which tooth is the problem.  Sometimes it will be obvious to the patient via pain when pressure is applied to a particular tooth.  Sometimes it is obvious to the operator via swelling or a small “blister” on the gums beside the tooth.  However if it is not obvious, the most convenient way to decide which tooth is the problem will be to apply cold to each tooth individually.  A tooth that is dying or dead will either give intense pain which lingers for ten or more seconds or will have no feeling at all.  Whatever the result of this test is, compare to known healthy teeth to verify your result is indeed abnormal.

Extraction Procedure
When you are ready to begin tooth extraction, get your tools ready by sterilizing them (in this scenario boiling may be the best you can do).  Always clean your mirror, elevators, bite block, and the forceps required for the particular tooth in question (for upper teeth you will be utilizing the 150 forcep only, for lower teeth that are incisors, canines, or bicuspids you will be using the 151 forcep only, for lower molars you will be using either the 151 or 23 forcep). 

All teeth extractions will begin the same way.  Prop the patient’s mouth open.  Insert the small straight elevator between the tooth and the gum in the space between the tooth to be taken out and the tooth in front of it.  While applying firm downward pressure, slowly turn the elevator and begin to move the tooth to be removed.  Do not use excessive force at any point.  When you can get no additional movement switch to the medium elevator and repeat.  The key to easy tooth extractions is getting them loose before you grab them with the elevator.  Be careful not to put pressure on other adjacent teeth, your elevator should leverage the tooth to be removed against the bone.  If the tooth does not loosen at any point you may consider peeling the gum tissue back on the cheek/lip side a bit and chipping away some of the bone on that side only (the small straight elevator can double as a half decent chisel).  When the tooth in question has a little movement to it you are ready for the forcep.

For removing an upper tooth: Use the 150 forcep and place it as far down the tooth as possible (well above the gum).  Slowly wiggle the tooth back and forth while putting pressure downwards (toward the bone).  Every few wiggles choke the forcep up on the tooth.  The tooth should be really moving at this point.  Rotate it towards the cheeks/lips with firm pressure and remove it. 

For removing a lower incisor, canine, or bicuspid: Use the 151 forcep and use the same technique described for upper teeth. In addition to the rocking motion described above you can also typically (meaning as long as these teeth have no extra roots) rotate these (twist rather than rock) to remove them more easily and less traumatically.

For a lower molar:  Examine the x-ray.  If the molar has two separate roots the 23 forcep would be appropriate.  If the roots of the tooth are fused together then use the 151 and follow the instructions for removing an upper tooth and disregard what follows.  Note that the vast majority of the time there will be 2 separate roots.  Place the points of the forcep in the middle of the tooth as far below the gums as you can get them.  The attempt is to get the points right into the area where the tooth roots separate.  Once you believe the forceps are in place, lightly squeeze the handles together while moving the forcep up and down.  If it doesn’t slip it is probably in the right place.  Next, continue light pressure on the handles together and move the forcep in a figure 8 [motion].  As you move it, you should naturally feel that every so often, the handles will close slightly.  This will slowly lift the tooth up.  Continue this motion until it feels like the handles are closed together, then rotate the forceps toward the cheek (twist) and remove the tooth.  If you have difficulty with the 23 try the 151 and follow the directions for removing an upper tooth.  Having said that, the denser bone in the mandible will be harder to chisel away, and slower to loosen the tooth.  Take your time and don’t break it.

Always examine the extracted tooth!!  Make sure the tooth looks like it does on the x-ray and that none of the roots broke and/or are missing.

Only one thing remains, what if it breaks?
First, don’t feel bad, you are in good company.  Even if you do everything right, you still have a decent chance at breaking the tooth.  If you act early and it’s a small portion that broke you may choose to leave it and see if it heals.  If the tooth is really abscessed when you act, the broken piece will perpetuate infection if not removed.  In order to remove a residual root, some bone may need to be removed.  If this is attempted it should be done from the cheek/lip side only.  Often a forcep (150 or 151) can be used to grab the bone adjacent to the root on either side crush it, grab the root, and remove it.  This is a difficult technique, but if it’s that or dealing with infection, give it a shot.

Post op
After 24-48 hours rinse with warm salt water a few times per day.  Don’t spit, smoke, or perform any serious chores or exercise for several days.

Note that in most jurisdictions it is illegal to do any of these things to another person unless you are a licensed dentist, but in TEOTWAWKI that probably won’t matter to you.

Economics and Investing:

Reader Pamela E. suggested this article: America’s vulnerable half-speed recovery

Frequent content contributors GG and Charley S. both sent this piece by Jim Kunstler: Economy has Six Months to Live

Items from The Economatrix:

Japan Airlines to File for Bankruptcy and Cut 15,600 Jobs

UK: Work Until 80 Under Plan to Abolish Retirement

Venezuela: Devaluation Sparks Chaos in Caracas

MyBudget360: The Capture of Our Government by Wall Street

Federal Reserve Seeks to Protect US Bailout Secrets

Wall Street, Politicians Still Don’t Get It

Odds ‘n Sods:

“N” mentioned this excellent YouTube video: “Concept U.S.K.” – Surviving Urban Disaster

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The latest from the White House: President Obama Signs Executive Order Establishing Council of Governors; Executive Order will Strengthen Further Partnership Between the Federal and State and Local Governments to Better Protect Our Nation. Hmmm… In Beltway speak “partnership” or “cooperation” often mean “control.” This could considerably degrade our 10 Amendment protections!

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Veteran economic and preparedness commentator Howard J. Ruff warns: Things We’ve Forgotten. (Thanks to GG for the link.)

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Attention Oklahomans! Tibbs’ law makes it illegal to ‘fortify’ a private home

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Survival begins not with guns, gold, and a garden. It starts with self-reliance, strong family and communal bonds, a plan of subterfuge, and clandestine acts centered in the refusal to be subdued. You can’t have it all so you had better spend the scarce time, energy and resources you have left to prepare.” – Tim Case

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 26 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 26 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

COA Analysis of Common Survival Strategies, by JIR

Having spent a lot of years on military planning staffs, I can’t help war-gaming scenarios. In short (as you know well) Course of Action (COA) development is a big part of Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) and is a fairly reliable way of looking at possibilities and choosing likely sequels, given scenarios. In effect, a way of war-gaming out the future. There are a number of horror scenarios that seem to me to be fairly probable and they keep going around and around in my head as I try to sequence them and assign probabilities to each one. I am haunted by the possible future, an occupational hazard for a professional planner. I sincerely hope our civilization outlives me because it’s failure could be truly horrible.

I agree completely with you on relocation to safer areas and stocking a remote retreat in the hinter-boonies. That’s the optimum solution and in worst case situations, it’s really the only solution likely to work long term. Any of your readers stuck in less than optimum situations are going to make a valiant effort to survive, but their odds are not as good. I am one of these folks. I worry about the golden hoard more than anything else. I would like to pass on some thoughts on the subject of what the unwashed masses will be doing after TEOTWAWKI. I am only guessing, but my guesses are made using history as a template. If anyone disagrees with my analysis, I would love to hear about it.

What about those totally unprepared? What are they going to do? There are many survival strategies open to the unwashed masses other than sitting down and starving to death. We all need to compare our own plans with these other strategies because I guarantee some of these strategies will be used by the teeming masses. When the power grid drops and the food shipments end, the average citizen is going to get a huge shot of reality. Guessing what they are going to do WTSHTF is central to all other survival planning, especially in the Eastern US or Europe.

ASSUMPTIONS:
I am talking here about a total collapse situation, not a slow slide decline or regional disruption. You can pick your own favorite cause from an EMP event to a finance system failure. They all cause roughly the same sequence of events. The results of any catastrophic collapse could easily be worse than any fiction you have ever read. The worst case scenarios all result in disruption of services and quick spiral into anarchy, but leave most of the population alive and hungry. This is the stuff of nightmares.

To recap our unprecedented bad situation: The vast majority of people live in urban or suburban areas near large population centers. They are poorly prepared for any emergency and completely unable to live self sufficiently. The food production systems that currently supply their food are fragile and subject to catastrophic failure. Most people’s very lives depend on a fragile triad made up of the transportation network, power grid and finance system. All three of these systems depend on the other two and they are all three unbelievably fragile. (There are many dependencies, but I see these as the three key points of failure.)

Most people currently live shoulder to shoulder in unthinkable crowding. Once the triad of services breaks down, the vast majority of people will suddenly be living on a very limited amount of capital in the form of the tiny amount of consumables on hand in each city. Once the Evian is gone and the toilets don’t work, they will have no way to get drinking water or even dispose of their own sewage. They are literally less than a week away from serious acute hunger.

This situation will not get better unless the government is able to restore critical systems very quickly. The odds of restoring order get worse the longer the crisis lasts as the teeming masses start migrating and civil order disintegrates. Assuming the government fails, the countryside cannot feed the population of the USA without modern fuel, finance, power and distribution systems in place. Using 19th century techniques (where that is possible), the farmland in the USA cannot begin to feed everyone. (Europe has the same problem). In short, people are living where there will be no resources and farmland (and farmers) will be overtaxed just to support locals. We don’t have the capital goods (horses, tack, hand plows, tools, seeds etc ) or skills to go back to old farming methods quickly. The math points to a die-off larger than anything recorded in history. Did I miss any main points?

People are not going to starve to death quietly. They never do unless there is a government to enforce it. Every last one of them is going to try something to survive or even just hang on one more day. Humans are survivors. They are intelligent, ruthless and deadly omnivores. We use the terms “sheeple”, or “Joe Six-pack” pretty flippantly, but even the most stupid human is very dangerous and many of the “sheeple” are not stupid or incompetent. They are, in fact, the most dangerous predators on earth. You are much better off surrounded by hungry tigers than hungry humans. On the other hand, these are real people that used to be your neighbors, mothers, fathers, daughters. When you look them in the face it’s going to be very hard to pull a trigger.

AVAILABLE STRATEGIES:
This is not an all inclusive list. People are going to try all of these concurrently. I expect to see a general sequence of strategy choices, but it’s not iron clad. While you would expect it much later in the crisis, you might run into a professional army on day one! The interplay of each strategy with the others is also hard to predict. People are going to try other things too (That I haven’t thought of). Local variables will effect how each strategy plays out and what events are likely to occur. The interplay of all these activities is where my analysis breaks down in complexity. You have to evaluate them with local variables, so generalizations can only go so far. I believe people will try all of these strategies. Some of them will work, but most of them will fail. There are only so many resources.

1. Begging/bartering. This is probably the first strategy you will encounter. Begging will go on until the very end. This strategy is open to everyone. It will work better for weak individuals, but ultimately, charity is going to dry up as resources get tighter. The vast majority of people who depend solely on begging will ultimately starve to death. (Unfortunately, most people will beg, barter, steal and kill, in that order. Even a single mother may cut your throat to save her children.)

PLANNING NOTE: In a total meltdown, the numbers will crush you if you let them. You have stored a finite amount of food, but there is an almost infinite number of beggars out there. Can you turn away a family with children who only want a bite to eat? You better think this out carefully and steel yourself for whatever you decide to do. If you give too many of your supplies away you will starve. If you turn everyone away, you may feel really bad. Think about it. How are your wife and kids going to react to begging? Watching a die-off is going to be tragic.

a. Bartering services. This could be prostitution or offering to act as security guard. This is actually a viable strategy for anyone with end-of-the-world useful skills. Find someone (or preferably a community) with food and sell yourself. If you have military training and equipment or specific skills, this could work. I don’t expect all the doctors to starve.

b. Bartering goods. Rich people may try to buy basic supplies at scalper’s prices. You might get a great deal on a Rolex or Mercedes.

2. Stealing/looting. This is a no-brainer once law enforcement breaks down. Even while there is some order, people are going to steal anything they can get their hands on, even at the risk of being hurt or killed. If we drop into anarchy, expect crowds of hungry people or “professional rioters” to sweep the city streets. As the public-access shops and warehouses begin to empty, crowds may move into residential areas for a while, but I don’t expect this to last long. Big crowds will probably disband completely when resources become more scarce or they have to travel further to get to them. A warehouse of food or shopping center near the inner city may support this behavior, but a suburban neighborhood 10 miles away won’t. Residential areas within cities may be in serious peril. The closer you are to densely populated areas and/or poor areas, the more peril you face. Once the big flash-crowds disappear or people start to forage in the suburbs,
small groups will splinter off and begin raiding (see item #5 below).

There will also be a lot of solitary (or small groups) burglars and sneak-thieves. If you keep chickens in your yard, watch your neighbors closely. If you plan to go to work and leave your house empty, it may be looted while you are away. Gasoline tanks without locks will be prime targets for night visitors. Suburban gardens are prime targets. This applies to slow-slide declines too.

Beggars can turn into looters quickly if nobody is watching. If nobody answers a door, they may try to break a window. The suburbs may be swamped with beggar/looters. As they get more desperate, looters will get bolder and more dangerous. The further out of town you live the safer you will be from this group. Of course, the more isolated you are, the more vulnerable you are to raiders.

3. Some people will sit tight and wait for things to somehow return to normal. Most people who have food and other resources will try to live on them and wait it out. If they stay in small family groups, they will be easy prey for mobs or raiders. Still, I expect most urbanites will do this until they are almost out of resources…then they will join the beggars and looters. This group will grow smaller every day and swell the numbers of looters.

4. Banding. Almost all people will band together for mutual protection and support. How well this works depends on many factors, but ultimately the only safety anywhere will be provided by numbers. Single survivors will get swallowed up quickly.

a. Banding by family unit. This is the basic family group and will be the the first and most common grouping. These groups are small in size but very cohesive. Most families will quickly band with other families into larger groups. The ones who don’t will be easy prey.

b. Banding by geography. Neighborhoods will try to form bands for mutual protection. Neighborhoods will try to do this, but historically, this is often not very effective, especially if the distance between neighbors is large. Sharing of resources within neighborhood bands is spotty and as individuals run low, they tend to leave. Rural neighborhood watches are doomed by small numbers, and urban neighborhood watches are doomed from having too many people.

Populations of small towns will band together to put up road-blocks and keep from being overwhelmed. This is the only way most small communities will be able to survive, even if they are capable of supporting themselves by farming. Unless they band effectively and very quickly, they are doomed to be overrun by refugees or raiders. Even the communities who quickly band together may get soft hearted and let in too many people to support. I think pitiful refugees are more dangerous than raiders. It’s a rare American who can watch genuine suffering and not try to help. This is especially dangerous if it looks as though the situation could improve and things go back to normal. If there is hope of getting help from outside the community, most people are inclined to save as many others as possible. I feel that this issue will doom many small communities.

PLANNING CONSIDERATION: If your plans include banding with a farming community, you must take steps immediately to close off the flow of refugees into the area. Convincing others to take steps this drastic will be hard or even impossible, especially early in a crisis. Closing your community and isolating it may very well be impossible. If it is, you are at the mercy of fate and geography. You had better have a plan-b.

c. Banding by profession. Cops, medical workers, emergency workers, soldiers, and perhaps factory workers may band with co-workers. You will especially see this behavior with professional military groups. Beware of military installations in a total breakdown! You have a lot of very young, very scared and highly trained young men with no families there. It might get very dangerous to be near a military town if the government totally disappears. (In a slow slide disaster or regional disaster Army Towns are perhaps the safest places to be, but once the chain of command disappears, watch out.)

d. Banding by religion. This is perhaps the easiest, most effective band to join, since the churches already congregate groups of like-minded people within a small area. Religious bands will probably be the basis for “small community group banding” and are usually the strongest bands possible to form on short notice. All the church groups in an area or a town will likely band together and put on the mantle of “local government”. I anticipate local churches forming the backbone of most local governments. They will be equipped with arm bands and represent “legitimate” government when they come to loot your supplies. Joining one of these bands will be a good survival strategy for many people, but in a total collapse, they are very likely to keep as many people alive as possible until they run out of resources and then starve together. Expect to see local polities formed from church groups going to war as resources get scarce. They will go
after both looters and hoarders. Fascism in America will probably arrive carrying a cross.

e. Banding by racial or ethnic group. You will see racially or ethnically pure groups in some regions. This could be very important factor in places like Los Angeles or New York almost immediately and may take precedence over geography or religion. It’s an ugly thought, but being the wrong color may be a death sentence some places. (Ironically, I don’t expect any serious racial tension in the deep South.)

f. Banding by gang or club affiliation. Not only urban gangs and bikers, but also gun-clubs, country clubs, and survival groups fall into this category. Some clubs will obviously not band effectively in an emergency (like a yacht club for instance), but you can bet the Aryan Brotherhood will cleave together like real brothers. Your survival group, can form a strong group if you have like minds and have clear plans for how to band, where to meet etc.

(PLANNING NOTE: Unfortunately, you are very unlikely to be able to form a survival group large enough to defend yourselves. You may have more success joining your survival group with a local church group or community group or some other band to increase your numbers. The only way you will be able to do that is to store enough food. Plan this out carefully. How big is your optimum band size and how will you feed everyone? Remember, you can use the same tactics other groups will use….like confiscation of warehouses, if your numbers are large enough and you are quick enough. But, If your ultimate size gets too large it will become unwieldy and impossible to control or feed. This is a conundrum you need to give some thought to now.)

Consider this topic well because your group belief system will vary depending on how you form the group and who you let in. A church group will have to use different tactics than a biker club or a neighborhood watch. This will limit or shape your options and set the tone of everything you do. No church group is going to seriously consider cannibalism, for instance.

5. Raiding/Banditry. Raider bands are going to spring up everywhere. Some will start as low level looters and graduate into larger scale violence. Some, however will start out as systematic raiders. There are some very bad perpetrators out there and there will be even more once the prisons empty. In the short term, violence will be very lucrative.

Raiders will take casualties over time. They will also replenish their numbers somewhat, but fortunately these are mostly anti-social types and may have trouble integrating new members. The further you are from them at the start, the safer you will be, but they can hit you anywhere, anytime. I don’t see a good solution for this other than sheer numbers or good OPSEC. They won’t attack an obviously hard target. and of course, they can’t attack what they don’t know about. They have to win to stay in business, so they won’t attack unless they feel they can win. Distance will spread out the number of groups and allow other survivors to thin their numbers in numerous gun battles. True raiders may not last long, but they are going to be a real problem in the short term.

I expect raiding to take two main forms. The roadside ambush and the home invasion. Home invasions are always dangerous and often brutal. If the raiders attack your home, they will try to take you by surprise and kill every combatant in the house before anyone can react. They will force every more at a very fast pace to prevent you from reacting. They may use some kind of distraction or disguise to gain surprise. Home invasion, carried out with professionalism and gusto is fairly
safe and easier than you would think. Expect to see some of them wearing body armor, dressed in police uniforms and carrying
badges. (Some of them will have professional entry training…like SWAT and military). Failing at a stack entry, they may use CS gas to drive out the occupants. Failing that, they will use fire.

Waylaying travelers on the roads is very easy and safe. Cars are just too vulnerable to gunfire. The roads outside small communities could be very dangerous to travel.

Don’t ever underestimate the vile depravity of human beings. Anarchy is the dirtiest word in the English language. Rape and torture may be common. I believe as food gets harder to find, many people will turn to cannibalism to sustain themselves. (I wish this were not true, but historically, it’s very common.) I am not advocating cannibalism in any way, but In all fairness, cannibalism can greatly extend a group’s supply base. There are a whole lot of people out there and people are made of meat. While easy targets are available, some groups may prosper for some months eating human flesh. It could be a fairly successful strategy for some groups. Beware. History of other collapses warns us that this may be common.

A longer term problem you should watch for is what I call “part time raiders”. Historically, most raids have been conducted by young men in one community raiding a nearby community. This phenomenon won’t happen overnight in most places but it will probably happen eventually unless somebody forms a central authority within a year or two.

6. Extortion. Outlaw bands will give way to professional armies in some places. Possibly with a core of military trained personnel, a hundred or more killers traveling together can extort more than smaller groups can steal. These groups will get larger as time goes by but they are doomed unless they can take over someone else s farmland and extort “taxes”. You may see groups like this move in to agricultural areas and set up shadow governments, taxing all the farmers nearby…or selling protection. Anyone who doesn’t play ball will be burned out. Expect them to use classic tactics like assassination, kidnapping, and terrorism to cow the locals. Local governments are going to probably hire many thugs and enforcers too. Telling the good guys from the bad guys might get difficult. Anyone trying to take your food is probably a bad guy, but it might be worth your while to pay him off.

7. Hiding. Some people are going to try to hide from the die-off.
Hiding inside a city or suburbs (in my opinion) is not going to work. People are going to systematically search every building for food. You could conceivably scare off or outfight wave after wave of looters and finally be looted by a local government or burned out by a large gang or rioters. The fact that you are living there will be impossible to hide when they try to search your building, If you are there, you will eventually have to fight or surrender your supplies. Hiding in the suburbs is just not possible and staying in an apartment building (even if you band with the other occupants for mutual protection) will eventually get you killed.

Hiding in a rural area is possible, just because of the distances involved. The number of hungry mouths will be less in the country, but local citizens are still going to confiscate your “Hoarded” food if they need it. Your best hiding place is in an area that will be defended by well-fed people. (but if you have a well-fed community defending you, you should really help them defend it, don’t you think?)

The second best hiding place is a wilderness area with no roads or natural resources that someone will want. A wilderness hide site takes a lot of skills to pull off. Also, it is not sustainable without some planning and a lot of discipline. Essentially, this is hunkering down in a remote place and eating supplies you brought with you while you wait patiently for the teeming masses to die off. Living quietly in the wilderness, mostly underground is a hard way to live, especially in bad weather, but it could be your best chance to miss the die-off if you are healthy and have a solid set of outdoor tactical skills.

8. Bug out (presumably to a safe place).
This is going to be very popular, even for people who have no place to go. Once the power is off and the sewage starts backing up, the cities are going to start losing people. The exodus may begin immediately or be delayed several days (depending on the scenario). Either way, the refugees will generally try to leave in family groups. They will mostly follow interstates, highways, state roads, and farm roads, in that order. Nobody (almost nobody) is going to just start walking in a random direction and go cross country. They will drive until they have to walk and try to re-supply along the way.

While there is order, the roads may be jammed with cars leaving the cities going nowhere. In practice, almost everyone is going to be driving out of the city with a definite destination in mind. Some relative, some small town they know of, etc. Most of these destinations are going to be just as bad as the ones they just left, but these will be desperate people. Many of them are going to seriously overestimate their vehicle range. (Traffic jams eat a lot of fuel, probably more than most people will plan for).

Most of those thousands of cars on the interstate are going to run out of gasoline in a matter of hours and wherever they finally run out, that’s where the occupants are going to start walking. Of course most of them are going to pull off the highways and interstates just before they run out and mob every town along the highway. (This is a historic fact, proven by every hurricane evacuation we have ever attempted). I expect people to turn very nasty when they run out of fuel. When they cannot buy fuel or food, the towns along America’s highways will be filled with armed, hungry desperate people who may kill for a gallon of gas or a drink of water. Sound like fantasy? Don’t bet on it. It’s happened even during regional crisis with help on the way. In a general meltdown, I expect lots of violence in small towns and strip communities along highways and especially interstates.

There may be long columns of desperate refugees walking the interstates, but I don’t foresee this. Most people will congregate in towns along the route. It’s difficult to predict what desperate people will do without knowing local variables. If there is a hopeful destination within perceived walking distance, I would expect a lot of foot traffic. Of course, there will be a large number of breakdowns, but probably no mass migrations on foot unless they are being chased by something like a fire or chemical spill etc.

PLANNING NOTE: If you wait too long to G.O.O.D. you won’t make it. I believe G.O.O.D. movement of any kind is going to be very dangerous. Moving vehicles are just too vulnerable, and there are going to be a lot of desperate, armed people stranded on the roads. This specifically includes law enforcement. They are not going to let you drive by with a load of gas cans in the back when their patrol car is sitting empty. Get out early or don’t try it.

9. Going on with your life and ignoring the crisis.
I think this will be a very popular early response. Some people will still try to make it to work, just like they always have. Until the crisis really gets bad, you will probably see shopkeepers, lawyers, bankers etc trying to commute to work. I really hope the police and firemen do this for as long as possible–and garbage collectors and power workers too! In fact, this is probably our best defense against a general melt-down. If everyone would stay calm and keep trying to make the system work, our society could survive almost anything. (I am betting on the exact opposite).

10. LaMOE (LAst Man On Earth) of the wilderness.
Some people will grab their outdoors gear and head for the woods planning to live out of a rucksack and forage or hunt for their food. I include fishermen in this category. I expect the wilderness areas to be absolutely stiff with “sportsmen” who are going to try to camp their way out of trouble. Maybe not, but I have heard a lot of people talk about it. This is a losing proposition, but that’s not obvious to everyone.

PLANNING CONSIDERATION: If you attempt to hide in a wilderness location, you are going to have to avoid these knuckleheads. Choose your hide site well.

11. Throw yourself on the mercy of the government.
Another VERY popular option. America has become the land of the entitlement. This generation seems to believe the government is there to take care of them from cradle to grave. I expect lots of folks to gather around anything even remotely resembling government. This will only last while government offices are open, but it might allow formation of groups or bands that will later loot and burn the city.

12. Go nuts and start burning everything in sight. It’s happened before and will probably happen again. For some reason, arson seems to be some kind of release mechanism for unstable personalities. These folks are yet another reason to avoid urban areas. They won’t last long, but they can cause a lot of damage in the short term.

13. Something else. This is only a partial list of all the possible strategies people will use. If you can think of something, expect someone to try it. Look at your local variables and think about it.

EXPECTED SEQUENCE:
Tricky, but in general terms, I expect urbanites to hang onto their city as long as supplies hold out and then attempt a bug-out. Some, of course, are going to bug out almost immediately. Some will never bug out.

Most people are going to sit tight until they get hungry and then either attempt a bug-out or try to barter/beg/or loot food.
Looters will start looting as soon as they can get away with it. Their numbers will be fairly small in the beginning, but will grow as more people get hungry. They will continue until there is nothing to loot…then they will have to change strategies. The next strategy up the scale is raiding.

Most people will never make that transition to violence, but I estimate up to 5% of the total population will easily make that transition and another 10% are capable of doing it if they have more time to get used to the idea (and get hungry). These numbers are not really supportable historically, but I feel that they are very close to reality…just personal opinion. If I am right, that means even a city of 100,000 people could produce 5,000 potential murderers in a few days. That’s a lot of bad guys.

Raiders, bandits and bad guys are going to prey on the weak until somebody establishes order or they run out of easy targets. This order will probably be in the form of locally formed polities (local governments and committees, neighborhood watches, and church groups.) Once we reestablish real order, most remaining raiders are going to try to change strategies. Some of them may join your church.

Unfortunately, the horrible die-off will encompass multiple years. It won’t end until local communities reach equilibrium and produce as much food as they consume. That could easily take more than two years. (The first harvest after a major crisis is going to be a disappointing time for some communities.) Some of the starving polities (probably after the first harvest) may choose war over starvation and attack neighbors. Sounds really grim, but I call em like I see em.

Livestock mortality the first two years is going to be astronomical. People are going to have to literally allow other humans to die while they feed livestock. Also, they are going to be very valuable commodities and prone to theft.

Wildlife and fish mortality will also be very high. Everybody who sees a deer will attempt to kill it. After a year or two, I expect deer, bear and wild hogs to be nearly extinct in the Eastern US. Small game will also suffer huge losses to poaching and so will fish.

SO, WHAT STRATEGY DO I PLAN TO USE?
I live in a nice suburban neighborhood of a small town within 45 minutes of a large urban area. The area surrounding us is a poor rural agricultural area in Southern Georgia. My town is near a secondary line of drift from Savannah. Not the worst place to live, but not good either. In a slow slide scenario, I will stay in place, participate in the neighborhood watch and go to work every day. I even have plans to set up a soup kitchen, field bakery and water purification plant at a local church if needed. My plan is to make myself valuable to the community. If things get really bad, I have the ability to arm up to 6 others. I have enough spare stored food, equipment and weapons to do this and still be postured for plan-B.

Plan-B. In the event of a TEOTWAWKI I intend to use several options. I intend to Bug out with a truck-load of supplies to a pre-selected wilderness area (within 15 minute ride of home), establish a hide site and wait out the carnage. (I have about seven months supplies for my family plus a couple of caches with extra food and weapons nearby for a total of roughly nine months of rough living. I believe our odds of remaining unnoticed for six or more months are very good while maintaining a fairly high standard of living. (Living this close to Savannah, this is the best plan I could come up with).

Why hide out? first, I have the skills, equipment and a good area. But mostly, I know myself. Having seen real hunger in Africa and the Balkans, I don’t believe I have the emotional hardness to watch people suffer and die without joining them by trying to help. Hiding out and missing the die-off will be hard, but watching it happen (for me) is just impossible. I can’t watch.

When things cool down, I will scout the area and attempt to barter my skills to local farmers or whoever is in power. (I have acquired quite a few barterable skills over the years). So, if I show up at your retreat door six months after a collapse looking for work: don’t shoot! It’s just me! – JIR