Three Letters Re: Lessons Learned From an Ice Storm

Dear Editor:
With regards to the battery powered carbon monoxide (CO) detector, I just want to second that. When my family went through the Nov. 2007 ice storm that took out the power to half of Oklahoma, we were running off our generator for two days. The first night I put it outside, but close to the house to help shelter it from winds. Our CO detector went off in the middle of the night. We ended up having the fire department come out and check things. It was determined that the CO came in through either the dryer vent, which was close to where the generator was, or through the attic. Our home was built in the 1960s and has attic vents on the sides. We ended up moving the generator about 10 feet farther away from the house and didn’t have any problems after that.

We’ve also found that one of the plastic kid pools works well with some duct tape to provide a temporary shelter for a generator in case of rain. Thanks for running the site, it’s a wonderful resource. – Chad in Texas

 

James;
I really enjoyed reading “Lessons Learned from an Ice Storm”, by G. in the Zarks. I went through a similar experience when I first moved to the hills, and resolved to buy a generator so I wouldn’t lose all my perishables (not to mention my mind).

Connecting the generator to the home electrical system was easy enough: simply purchase a transfer switch or a “double throw switch” or a “break before make switch” to the tune of about $200 bucks at any contractor supply house. These handy devices are mechanical switches that route your generator power directly to your home electrical system, and physically separate this source of power from commercial power, thereby preventing the generator’s electricity from feeding back into the power company’s lines and injuring their linemen trying to restore the system after a power outage. Plus, you don’t have to worry about tripping over all those pesky extension cords running to your refrigerator or freezer or whatever.

Next, hire yourself a licensed electrician to install said switch. This cost me under $200, but this was over 10 years ago, so YMMV. Knowledgeable, experienced electricians able to do this work are common in the Ozarks, as many make their living installing transfer switches on chicken houses.

When I bought my generator, all I could afford was a 6,500 watt gasoline-powered screamer. I wish I could have bought something bigger and better (read: diesel), but just couldn’t come up with the bucks. Consequently, I am unable to power everything in my (unfortunately) all-electric house simultaneously. This necessitates careful load management. For example, I can run a couple of lights,my well pump and hot water heater at the same time, so hot showers are possible. Once showers are done, the well pump and water heater circuits are turned off and the refrigerator or freezer or what ever else needs doing are turned on.

Not the best situation, but until I can come up with the money to buy a larger generator, it sure beats sitting in the dark and cold praying the power comes back on soon. – L.H.

 

Mr. Rawles:
Re: The article “Lessons Learned From an Ice Storm, by G. in the Zarks” in the Friday, February 5th posts of SurvivalBlog, can I offer the some lessons I’ve learned in 40+ years as an Ozarker?

First, I listened and learned as much as I could from the fast-dwindling group of Ozark natives when I moved here. Second, I learned to watch the weather and know something about it. I didn’t waste my time with the media weather female meteorologists or guys outstanding in the rain. I looked at the weather maps, remembered my years of experience here, and the stories told me by those whose experience preceded arrival of power lines and pavement. About 8:00 the morning the big ice storm was to hit the Ozarks, I committed to not being here when it did. Experience told me I’d be iced in for some time and the come-latelys would be in the ditches or otherwise draining the resources of our overtaxed and under-staffed sheriff’s deputies, volunteer fire, and EMT crews.

It took me just two hours to load up and be on the road in my 16 year old conversion van, further converted to a self-sufficient home on wheels kept well stocked. That included preparing the house for what was ahead too. RV antifreeze in all drains and traps including washing machine and dishwasher, drain the water lines and shut off the electric water heater. Since the house is primarily heated by wood, two electrical strips were left on at low level to keep the inside above freezing. Six inch walls and a modest size make my house easy to keep above freezing and at adequate food storage levels, even in below zero times.

I called my sister-in-law, who lives a few miles away, and told her to drop by when conditions allowed to clean out the refrigerator as appropriate, and check for damage from trees in my 10-acres of hardwoods that surround and hide the house. She did, about a week later when the others who live down my road had cleared a path. The storm had given a war zone background to the beautiful mountains and valleys, but nothing hit either my house or two metal-clad outbuildings. A melted quart of ice cream was the worst clean-up problem.

I met the leading edge of the storm about 75 miles south of home, on the crest of our mountain range, where ice began appearing on the antennas on the van. I was out of danger on the flat land another 25 miles south and headed toward Texas via the shortest and fastest route. Once there and rested up after an overnight in a state Hospitality Center parking lot, I began a leisurely 30 days in the Lone Star State’s state parks and other favorite and cheaper Texas camping places. With middle seats removed, my van contains a bed, 40-quart chest-type Engel 12 and 120 volt refrigerator with efficient rotary compressor. I can cook on either microwave or propane stoves. There’s a Porta-potty tucked under the table holding the microwave, and food, water, coo ware and other
necessities in cabinets made from Sauder kit furniture units all bolted together and anchored to the mounts that held the middle van seats. Plastic storage units fit elsewhere for other supplies. Solar power panels, discreetly mounted inside the luggage rack on the roof to be invisible to any but someone climbing the van’s ladder, keep the refrigerator going through a deep cycle battery. The 190 watt solar system also powers a 750 watt modified sine wave 120 volt power supply that runs the microwave for limited cooking such as my 2-minute oblates, 60-second brown and wild rice and meals. The 120 volts can run the laptop computer’s TV module when TV stations are in range. Its own batteries handle e-mail. Some Texas State Parks are sources for free Internet hookups.

The van also is outfitted with three amateur radio and two scanner radios and antennas, to keep friends advised of my whereabouts beyond cell phone range or need, and keep me appraised of what is going on around and above me.

What I’ve learned from my resourceful and self-sustaining Ozark native friends is not to rush out and stock up after the first warning from the Weather Channel but to be ready to adapt to what ever may be coming, and to know if and when it is coming by experience, monitoring the real news sources of public service and other early warning media.

“Lessons learned from an ice storm?” Really be prepared. Prepared in priority. Power outages, winter storms and summer tornadoes or hurricanes, New Madrid acting up, heat, cold, rain or snow; I can ride them out or bug out in hours or less. Financial collapse, civil unrest, madness spawning something else; look for me gone in these less-likely but slower moving crises. I’ll be out there somewhere, identifiable from the next vehicle only by license plate, if you happen to come upon me camping or rolling down some highway or back road. – Vern M.

Economics and Investing:

SurvivalBlog’s Editor At Large Michael Z. Williamson flagged this:mentioned this at Market Ticker: Derivative Fraud? Where Are OUR Cops?

GG flagged this: What Every American Should Know About the National Debt

Also from GG: Evercore CEO Altman: Obama’s Deficit Will Cause An International Currency Crisis In The Next Two Years

Tim R. was the first of several readers to send this: It is Now Mathematically Impossible to Pay Off the U.S. National Debt

Items from The Economatrix:

Mortgage Rates Edge Up Slightly

Moody’s Warns US of Credit Rating Fears

Sovereign Debt Fears Rattle Investors

Greek Debt Woes Spread to Portugal, Spain

Shell To Axe 1,000 More Jobs

January Unemployment Rate Drops to 9.7%. JWR’s Comment: Sure it did…

Middle Class No More, Families Struggle to Fight Off Homelessness

The Bankruptcy of the US is Now Certain

Odds ‘n Sods:

Steve K. sent us this link: Snowpocalypse 2010: Everybody Panic!

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Mark O. sent us an article that has both libertarian and OPSEC ramifications. Is That A Castle You’re Hiding Behind That Haystack? Perhaps Mr. Fidler should have moved to one of the many states in the western US where no building permits are required, and there is no mandatory building code. (except inside city limits, by some local ordinances).

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A reader recommended getting a copy of the Pocket Ref, by Thomas J. Glover. One reviewer described it as: “… part encyclopedia, part trivia tome, part entertainment and part dispute-solver. Buried in the various tables and charts are tons of data and facts to aid the rider, roadside mechanic or budding MacGyver.”

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 KT sent us a link to The Virtual Turnpike–a site that offers ground-level photographs of house, with n almost frightening level of detail.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Woe unto them that decree unrighteous decrees, and that write grievousness [which] they have prescribed;
To turn aside the needy from judgment, and to take away the right from the poor of my people, that widows may be their prey, and [that] they may rob the fatherless!
And what will ye do in the day of visitation, and in the desolation [which] shall come from far? to whom will ye flee for help? and where will ye leave your glory?
Without me they shall bow down under the prisoners, and they shall fall under the slain. For all this his anger is not turned away, but his hand [is] stretched out still." – Isaiah 10:1-4

Notes from JWR:

In recognition of his many months of faithful service in finding links to relevant news articles for SurvivalBlog, George Gordon (“GG”) has been given a place on the SurvivalBlog masthead. Like our other volunteer editors, he will be in it just for the glory, and perhaps the occasional free book or two. George Gordon is the nom de plume of an American businessman who closely follows economic developments and hence says that he “is getting more and more worried.” His pen name is is an homage to George Gordon Lord Byron, the British poet who was famously described as “Mad, bad, and dangerous to know.” Welcome aboard, GG!

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Today we present another entry for Round 27 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 27 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

The “Power of Ten” Planning Model, by Sandkicker

This article has nothing to do with any special properties of the number ten, but rather refers to a progressive planning method based on the size of a problem. This is a way to organize thinking and planning for chaotic situations.  

“If you fail to plan, you’ve planned to fail”.   It would be irresponsible to present any particular plan as suitable for everyone, however, these are some guidelines on how and why you should develop your own plans.  Why do I have the nerve to write this piece?   I’ve been in the middle of more than one “adventure”… and in only one of them did I have any preplanned resources.  I’ve been thinking and planning about survival issues for decades.

SHTF or TEOTWAWKI can mean different things at different times.  While many web sites focus on total breakdowns, the fact is that for any given person walking across the street without looking both ways and being killed by a truck, it’s the same as the whole planet getting smacked by a 50 mile wide asteroid.  The focus of the “Power of Ten” is based on the premise that almost everyone has sudden small emergencies. Preparation for small emergencies as a part of a larger overall plan is a useful approach, because a small one day emergency can stretch out to many days.  Those who are prepared have the chance at survival    

Consider some small emergencies: Imagine losing electric power for four hours. Depending on individual circumstances, this can be an annoyance, up to a catastrophe. Suppose power goes out for four days. Again, depending on weather and climate, this can become a much bigger problem.  My daughter and her husband live in deep New England. Last winter their power went out for days.   No heat, frozen pipes – and even though they were able to get a generator, they had to spend a good bit of time on the phone with me to figure out how to connect it. Do you have a generator? Do you know how to safely hook it up? Do you know why it might not be a good idea to power up your whole house and light it like a Christmas tree? Do you know how to hook up even a small generator to keep just your vital services going?  Will your existing plan for a SHTF situation have any elements in it to help if the power goes out during a 2 day ice storm?

Enough examples, so let’s get to the point.

Every one needs a plan, a realistic plan.  If the plan isn’t written down and everyone who is to participate in that plan does not understand it and their clearly defined roles in the plan, then you don’t have a plan!  The facts are that, “No plan survives its first touch with reality” and “You can’t plan for everything”.  But you can -and must- start to plan with everyone in your household included.

No plan can cover all eventualities when first written, or ever for that matter.  GOOD plans are written to reflect one’s understanding of what they are trying to accomplish with what resources they have at any one time.  GOOD plans are read, reviewed and revised as necessary.  The best plans cover a range of problems.  They contain bits and pieces that help with small, large and huge problems and for scenarios never anticipated. Hence the title of this piece.

Here is where the “power of 10” can help you to get organized. Plan for… 1 day, 10 days, 100 days, 1,000 days….(and gulp)…10,000 days.  You cannot get to day 10 if you don’t survive day 1 and not to day 100 unless you survive day 10.

I am a firm believer in modular planning,  The plan to survive 10,000 days (Yes, 27+ years) is made of elements that one uses to survive 1, 10 and 100 days… after all, on Day 1, there isn’t going to be an announcement saying.. “This event will be over in…” that you can believe anyway!   I believe that it is totally foolish to start one’s planning with “How am I going to survive a total collapse”.   Start with a 1 day plan for each season and for different events, then work towards the 10 day plan, again for each season and for different events. Doing this will help you build that 1,000 or 10,000 day plan more effectively.  You should already have handy what you need for the “one day plan”, if not, get it, then work towards the 10 day plan. When you have that plan written and reviewed, it’s time to start implementing.  Buy what you need and set it aside so it can be used.  Talk to the whole family about the plan.  Include everyone – kids, old folks, and don’t overlook pets.

As an example, I live in a coastal community on the eastern seaboard.  My one day plans are one set of plans, my 10 day plans another…and my 10 day plan will vary depending on what I’m planning for.  A winter ice storm that kills power is one plan, and evacuating in the event of a hurricane, quite another.  Folks talk about are they going to be “Bugging In” or “Bugging Out”.  When asked which you will do, the only correct answer should be, “It Depends!”  You need to be ready for the unexpected.  How do you do that?   Think independence, dependence on nothing other than what you have in hand. When talking to a friend about this essay, they said, “One day plan, who needs one?”.  Who?  Me, you, everyone!  I’ve been traveling worldwide for business on and off since the days of the Boeing 707s.  My rule after my first flight:  always have in hand what you need for at least 24 hours without outside help when you leave for the airport. More than once over the years, this policy has made my life immensely easier and more comfortable. Additionally, planning and acting on a day to day basis for emergencies, instantiates a “survival mentality” that realistically, we need to be in constantly.  Most often, emergencies do not come with warnings ahead of time.

I firmly believe that the minimum plan one should have thought through, written out, and implemented is the 10 day plan… for both “bug-in” and “bugout”.  And on the subject of “bugging out”: One needs to have different destinations for different scenarios.  There are a pair or scenarios that I’ve planned for where we bug out to my brother’s home well north of me and a scenario where he comes here.

As to getting from here to there… as mentioned above I live in a coastal community.  On summer weekends, 90 min trips from “the city” can take four hours in good weather.  If it got to be “bugout” time for us, the last piece of road I’ll be driving on will be the local superhighway. I’m sure if most of you think about it, that nice bit of superhighway that’s your first thought for any trip won’t be viable.    Plan your routes, and your secondary route and if you are fortunate enough… a third route. Try not to depend on the Interstates.  Don’t plan to use that great GPS navigation box in your car.  The GPS system is managed by the government.  It can and has been shut down in the past by the government when they thought they had a need.  Get good paper maps. Mark routes.  As to the Interstates, the legislation that funded them states that the Government can restrict use of the Interstates to military use only as needed.

Okay… you should work towards having plans as follows:

1 and 10 Day:

 

Weather Related

Infrastructure

Civil Breakdown

Winter

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Spring

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Summer

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Fall

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

This does not mean that you need 24 plans… In your individual situation, you probably will only need 2 or 3 bug-in and bug out plans that you can use/reuse/equip/stock as modules.  And for all bugout scenarios, plan what you will do if you end up on foot.

Beyond 10 days to 100 days and beyond…

Now things get more difficult.  You can stock up on 6 months or a year of “survival food” which may work out, if you and that food all get to be in the same place. Is your Bug-Out Vehicle a diesel powered International Harvester all-wheel drive 26 foot truck?  How about stocking six months or a year of required medications?  Or six months or a year’s worth of fuel?

Frankly, somewhere between 10 and 100 days is where the (first) big crunch will happen. I’ve heard some say… “Oh, I’ve got my retreat in western “Pennsyltucky” all stocked up!” Yes, you can do that, and that could be your plan, however, I suggest that if all you are going to do is move your kith and kin to a isolated place in the “wherever”, and sit on and eat off your stockpile without having any skills related to the current situation to contribute to the community, you will become a foraging opportunity.  Plan on bringing “value” to whatever community you will be moving into (i.e., hedge fund managers without any other skills, need not apply).  No matter what you bring or have stockpiled, if you don’t have useful skills to bring to the community appropriate to the situation, you will just become a burden to that infrastructure -which is likely to need help not an additional burden.  BTW, being a good shot and well armed is necessary, but not sufficient in my context.

I don’t have any guidelines to share for these very long range plans other than the speculation that beyond 100 days, either our military will be moving in and trying to bring order, or… someone else’s military will (barring an extinction event asteroid),   as one of our “creditors” may decide to “foreclose” to “protect their interests”, or for “humanitarian interests” .   When the military moves in, I suspect that those whose plans started with:  “ my 12 gauge, my AK and my 9mm and 1,000 rounds for each” and ended with a backpack or pickup truck full of food and a plan to high tail it into the woods somewhere, will either be waiting for a burial detail to get to them, or run the risk of being hunted like vermin.

To sum it up…Create a written plan.  Address specific scenarios. (note plural).  Review and discuss plans with those who will be included in them. Change (improve) them as events and resources will allow.  Plans need to be practiced.  Plans should include action/role sheets for everyone, especially for an emergency bugout.  As a small example: last week, my wife and I went to the local range.  I very much wanted to bring my spotting scope as we were firing an iron sighted 22 LR bolt action rifle among other things and I needed it to see shots in the black at 25 yards.  When we unloaded at the range, no spotting scope!   I’d left it home.

Your plans, or even the existence of them, probably should not be topics of conversations at back yard barbeques as there is always at least one “opportunist” at one.  Get to know your neighbors, to see if they could be depended on for mutual aid. You don’t have to like them, but you may need to trust them.  That crusty grump up the street may very well have skills and experience that could be handy.  Running off into the sunset, or the hills, or turning your home/farm/retreat in the boonies into an armed bunker is not a plan… it’s the survivalist fairy tale.  Only those who plan are the ones who may have the chance to live happily ever after.

Two Letters Re: Lessons Learned from the Oklahoma Ice Storm of 2010

Dear Editor:
The Oklahoma Ice Storm of 2010 is now melting away and as usual there were lessons learned.   Many of these should have been “known” before but we are never as prepared as we should be.  In that vein I am going to rehash several things that went right, a few that went wrong, and others that we can improve on the next time that “life as usual” is not.

First, the setting: I live in Southwestern Oklahoma and have been here for almost three years.  About January 22nd we started getting word of an impending ice/snow storm scheduled to hit on about January 28th.  As the storm came together we received updates that refined the details.  The reports of January 27th were remarkably accurate to what we would receive as well as the specific times that each type of precipitation would start to fall.

In our town it started to rain at about 7 a.m. on January 28th.   As the temperature dropped that rain froze on metal objects, then on trees and plants, and finally on roads.  At approximately 3 p.m. the rain changed over to sleet and ice pellets and by 9 p.m. we were getting snow.  Unfortunately an inch+ of ice and two inches of sleet/ ice had already destroyed many trees and power lines (both the small distribution lines in town and the major transmission lines into town) were down.
 
Electricity went out about 11 a.m. and was restored by 3 p.m.  It went out again at 4 p.m. and would remain off at our house for the next six days.  This power outage was universal for every house in town and every town within a 30 mile radius.  I should mention that throughout the storm we had full water, sewer, and natural gas service.  There was concern at one point that the sewers would back up, (the sewer lagoons are at an elevation where the sewage has to be pumped to them) and those concerns brought about the possibility of the city turning off the water to prevent sewer backup but power was restored before this eventuality.

Second, the good news list.  Now that we are settled into what we hope is our last home, we keep on hand sufficient food to last for approximately six months.  With reasonable rationing we could go even longer.  We have a good rotation system and keep on hand about four months worth of food that we eat every day and two months worth of emergency type rations.

We enjoy camping and backpacking and have all the equipment to do both activities year round and be comfortable.  This includes lighter weight stoves, packs, tents and sleeping bags and water purifiers to campsite sized Coleman cook stoves, lanterns, Dutch ovens, tents, cots and heavy sleeping bags.  While most of this equipment was not used it was comforting to know that if the situation continued to deteriorate, that we could adapt.

We bought a standard frame house with brick veneer when we moved to Oklahoma which is approximately 35 years old.  We haven’t spent money on kitchen, bathroom or carpet upgrades but we have put 20 inches of blown insulation throughout (to include over the garage and the porches) and we replaced all of the original double pane aluminum frame windows with energy efficient vinyl frame windows.  Realizing that it is possible to do better, we were still pleased that during one seventeen hour period without any heat source in the house, outside temperatures from 17 to 26 degrees, and 20 mph winds, the temperature in the house only dropped five degrees from 67 to 62.

The house has two hot water heaters-one electric that services two bathrooms and one natural gas that services the kitchen and laundry room.  It was very easy to take hot water to the bathtubs and perform personal hygiene.  Showers were courtesy of the two gallon watering bucket that my wife uses to keep the sun room flowers fresh.

The regular phone system remained operational throughout the storm and recovery period.  However, folks that only had cordless phone systems could not access the lines.  In some cases phones with integrated answering systems could dial out but the phones would not ring if the ringer depended on plug in electricity.  We have one of the old style rotary phones that works perfectly on the telephone line current and were able to send and receive calls.

We topped off all the vehicles and gas cans a couple of days before the storm.  I anticipated trouble getting more fuel trucks to town.  What I did not think about was the gas station could not pump gas without electricity anyway.  Ultimately one old fashioned gas station in town hooked up a generator and could run receipts in his office.  Credit cards did not work so cash or an established charge account with the owner was the way to do business.
 
Third, what we can do better.  We have a lot of candles.  I have not done an inventory but there are boxes of them.  We discovered that candles that are about an inch in diameter are optimal.  Larger candles, 2-1/2 to 4 inches burn down in the center and leave a candle rim that blocks light. Ultimately they just shine a small circle of light on the ceiling.  We also learned that the best candles put out very little light.  We have a couple of antique oil lamps but they are for decoration and did not have wicks in them.  We are going to acquire more oil lamps, maintain them, and keep sufficient oil on hand for 4-to-6 months.

In the brain dead category we have Coleman stoves and lamps that are dual fuel.  Unfortunately I gave all of our Coleman fuel to the Boy Scouts so we failed in “Being Prepared”.  We shifted to our propane stoves.  I need to point out that these stoves should not be used indoors.  We cooked outside on the patio.  When we do get around to remodeling the kitchen I am going to replace the stove top with a gas appliance.  While we did not bake, we did have the capability by placing a Dutch oven on the propane stove.

In the final analysis we look at the Oklahoma Ice Storm of 2010 as being the most lavish camping trip that we have ever been on.  We never felt as though there were any true hardships and after the initial storm period we spent a lot of time outdoors enjoying the snow and volunteering at the local Red Cross warming/feeding center doing whatever was asked of us.  We look forward to implementing a few changes and the next opportunity to test our preparedness.

Hello!
I am new to reading your blog and love it! I wanted to comment on the ice storm post. I live in Oklahoma so we know all about these ice storms. I started reading a lot of blogs on prepping and storing food during the holidays. I decided to make a menu and strict food budget so I could afford to buy extra food for long-term storage. I bought a month’s worth of food this January. I also bought my first water storage container – a 7 gallon Aqua-Tainer from Wal-Mart. Last year, I had a gas heater mounted on my dining room wall, preparing myself for the next inevitable ice storm. A few days before the storm, I bought emergency candles and I am so glad I did! We didn’t lose power (thankfully!), but our little town was cleaned out of generators, candles, Coleman stoves, propane, kerosene….everything. I went to Wal-Mart a few days later (when power was still out all over the county) and the shelves were completely empty in some areas. That was a wake-up call to me. In just a few short days, stores can be emptied. It is wise to not wait until the last minute. I am a single mom and a teacher and I know how difficult it is to come up with extra money to help become better prepared. I am doing a little each month and will sleep soundly knowing that my kids will be warm and fed if anything happens. By the way, the ice storm hit seven days ago and people are still without power.

Thanks for the wonderful blog and such useful information! – Kay in Oklahoma

Economics and Investing:

There has been a veritable torrent of bad economic news in the past few days. Here is just a sampling…

Ponzi Scheme: The Federal Reserve Bought Approximately 80 Percent Of U.S. Treasury Securities Issued In 2009. (Thanks to Duane for the link.)

George Gordon (“GG”) sent this: 20 Reasons Global Debt Time Bomb Explodes Soon

Also from GG: Sprott: Gold to gain 30% in 2010, higher interest rates to hurt US economy

and another from GG: Fears of ‘Lehman-style’ tsunami as crisis hits Spain and Portugal

Chad S. forwarded this: North Korea’s economic moves bring new misery

John G. liked this piece over at Zero Hedge: The Next Leg Of The Housing Crisis In Five Simple Charts

Items from The Economatrix:

Stocks Sink in on Economy Jitters; Dow Below 9,900

Companies Boost Productivity and Put Off Hiring

Bond Yields Tumble on Latest European Debt Worries

Stocks, Commodities Plunge as Dollar Gains

Retailers Likely to Close More US Stores

Odds ‘n Sods:

Please stop! Some well-intentioned (but naive) folks are forwarding the e-mail titled “See with your own eyes Nephilim” with several Photoshop-doctored pictures of supposed skeletal remains of 16-foot tall humanoids. Here is a link to one of the original photos that they doctored. Again, please stop forwarding this fakery!

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Kurt B. sent this: Nuclear missile threats to U.S. mount; Report warns of Pyongyang’s aims

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Chad S. spotted another piece from Nanny State Britannia: Cheers! Brits toast new shatterproof pint glass. Chad Adds: “Note that this was developed by the British Government, not private industry.”

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The people of every country are the only guardians of their own rights and are the only instruments which can be used for their destruction. It is an axiom in my mind that our liberty can never be safe but in the hands of people themselves, that, too, of the people with a certain degree of instruction." – Thomas Jefferson, in a letter to W.S. Smith, 1787

Notes from JWR:

A curious thing happened yesterday (Thursday, February 4th). Both the stock markets and precious metals markets declined. Traditionally, they have moved in opposite directions, but we are living in curious times. I took advantage of the dip in metals and bought some more silver. (I hope that you do likewise, on dip days. I’ve mentioned that countless times in SurvivalBlog. Has it sunk in yet?)

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Today we present another entry for Round 27 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 27 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Lessons Learned From an Ice Storm, by G. in the Zarks

While watching the local weather over the last few days, it has become apparent that a winter storm is heading for our part of the world, bringing with it the distinct possibility of not just snow, but significant amounts of ice. As I pondered this, it brought to mind our recent experiences with ice storms over the last few years, most notably in January 2007. I thought some of our “lessons learned” were worth sharing with others.

We had been blessed with several years of reasonably mild winters leading up to the 2007 storm. Unfortunately, the good times often seem to lull people into a state of complacency, characterized by an artificial sense of well-being and overall lack of awareness. This is, of course, what the late Colonel Cooper referred to as Condition White.

I freely admit to being somewhat guilty of the “All is Well” syndrome where the weather was concerned also. While I have spent my entire adult life trying to make sure my family is prepared for the myriad of difficulties we experience, I must confess that when the weather man said “Chance of ice,” I didn’t really take him all that seriously. I failed to properly evaluate the nature of the threat. In that particular instance, I didn’t think through the potential ice storm scenario to any great degree, because I considered myself and my family to already be prepared for this event. At the very least, I should have gone through the mental exercise of “what if” and reviewed the supplies I had in contrast to what I was likely to need in this situation. In a real emergency, “All is Well” can get you killed.

The ice came. In the early hours of the morning I awoke to find the power had gone off. This was, frankly, no surprise to me. Temporary interruptions in the grid caused by weather are far from unusual here. What I couldn’t know at the time was our power would not be back on for 8 days. Neighbors not far from us were out for 13 days. In contrast, power in the closest town was only out for hours.

Upon waking, I immediately got up, woke my wife and told her the power was out, and took a hot shower before the water in the tank had a chance to cool. My wife did likewise. A hot shower can become an unbelievable luxury in a surprisingly short period of time when the power is out. (Yes, our hot water heater is “gasp!” electric.) Also, I filled the bathtub and several buckets with water in case the generators failed at the local water district. I already had several cases of drinking water and approximately 200 gallons in drums in the garage as well. These are standard precautions on our part, regardless of the time of year.

Heat was the next issue we tackled. Our home is all-electric, but we supplement the electric furnace with portable kerosene heaters in order to keep utility bills manageable. I isolated the living room, which is where we spend most of our waking hours, by stapling blankets over the doorways leading to our hallways and kitchen. This five-minute modification allowed me to more efficiently heat the living room with a kerosene heater, and minimized heat loss into the unused areas of the house. I used the same “compartment” approach at night when heating the bedroom. Of course, kerosene heaters should never be left unattended for any period of time, and a battery-powered CO detector is a must.

A second important lesson regarding heat is to have ample fuel supplies on-hand to handle an emergency. We were burning kerosene on a daily basis before the storm. When the weather forecast seemed ominous, I asked my wife to pick up an extra container of kerosene on her way home from work, since I work long shifts and would not be away from work before the station closed. She forgot, and we faced the storm with less than 5 gallons of kerosene. On the heels of the ice came painfully low temperatures for several days. It became clear that we would not have sufficient fuel for our heaters to last throughout the cold snap. Furthermore, a large percent of the local population had turned to kerosene heaters in the absence of electricity. Local suppliers soon ran out of kerosene. As a result, I eventually found myself standing in line for approximately four hours in order to purchase 10 gallons of kerosene, when it became available. Fortunately, I did have enough cash on hand to make the needed transaction. ATMs were only intermittently operational. The wait, outdoors in single-digit temperatures, with a few hundred other unfortunates, was by far the most valuable lesson I received during this time. The helplessness, anxiety, and shame associated with my lack of preparation have impacted me deeply. By the way, I now buy kerosene in 55 gallon drums. No more queues for me.

That covers water, shelter, and heat. Our next issue was light. I keep several Dietz lanterns and two Aladdin lamps along with several gallons of high-grade lamp oil on hand. Illumination was not a problem. In addition, I have a wide variety of Surefire brand flashlights and spare lithium batteries for nighttime chores around the house. All of the above were put to good use. I was even able to supply some of my neighbors with Dietz lanterns and oil during the time we were off-grid. Several valuable lessons concerning light were learned. First, the Aladdin lamps are excellent, albeit somewhat expensive. They are bright when used according to the instructions. So bright, in fact, that I recommend anyone planning on using them also spend the extra money for lamp shades. They are definitely bright enough to read by without undue eyestrain. They also give off significant amounts of heat, which was helpful in the cold temperatures. They would be less pleasant to utilize in hot weather, however. I was actually able to boil water by holding a metal cup over the top of the chimney for a brief time. This was an excellent technique for preparing some of the freeze-dried Mountain House food we ate during the event. Buy at least twice as many mantles and chimneys as you think you will need, as these are the most fragile parts of the lamp. Also, read the instructions.

Dietz lanterns are excellent tools for the money, but are significantly less bright than the Aladdins. They are easier to use when you are moving around as they have handles and can be carried while lit. All the standard precautions apply when using anything that is actively burning while you handle it.

Surefire lights are also outstanding illumination tools. The major shortfall is battery life. I discovered that when you are using them as a primary illumination source, you will go through a surprising number of batteries. The good news is the batteries generally have a shelf life measured in years, so you can afford to stock up without worrying too much about discharge rates. Don’t buy CR-123 batteries from places like Wal-Mart; they are too expensive there. Instead, order them directly from Surefire’s web site. You can get them in bulk for less than $2 per battery. The battery life problem can also be mitigated somewhat by buying the newer generation of LED lights, as opposed to the older ones with the xenon bulbs.

Food was not an issue due to pre-existing stocks. All our cooking was done outside on a propane burner from a turkey fryer. Coffee prepared in an enameled percolator was definitely the biggest morale-booster from day to day. We even had friends over for “Mountain House night” to provide a little levity and fellowship in an otherwise dreary situation.

The same morning that the power went off, I removed all perishables from the refrigerator and stored them in a Rubbermaid tub in the cold garage. That food was prepared and eaten first. The freezers were left closed as much as possible, and wrapped with blankets for additional insulation. I keep a 5kw generator with the tank drained along with several gallons of stabilized fuel (religiously rotated) and sufficient oil. My only purpose for the genset is to keep the freezers frozen in just such situations. Only one of my freezers in indoors, the others being outside. It was only necessary to run the generator for a couple of hours every two to three days to maintain the integrity of the frozen food. In retrospect, it would be advisable to have the ability to connect the genset to portions of the house (with the appropriate safety measures, of course) for added flexibility in using a limited number of electric appliances.

During the crisis, I had two different coworkers whose homes were “cased” by potential thieves. Each home was rural and isolated, with no neighbors in direct line-of sight. Fortunately, in both cases, when the armed homeowners confronted the would-be thieves, they wisely ran away.

Keep in mind that, while the power was off for several days, this was in fact only a pseudo-disaster. Roads remained passable, and within a day, Wal-Mart was open for business. Within hours they sold out of bottled water, candles, lamps & lamp oil, manual can openers, flashlights, batteries (D-cells were the most in demand), milk, bread, and most foodstuffs that don’t require preparation. Over the course of three days, I watched my closest neighbor make at least two trips to Wal-Mart per day, returning with armloads of white plastic bags each trip. Also, within days, there were enterprising individuals selling small generators out of the back of tractor-trailers. You could hear the rattle and hum of Briggs & Stratton engines in almost every direction.

On a personal note, the experience was also a validation of the preparedness mindset for my wife. While she has always been supportive of my efforts to prepare, she was from time to time also prone to grumbling about the amount of space occupied by our preparedness supplies. More than once during the storm, she would say something like “Gee, it would be nice if we had…” upon which I would go to the back room, rummage around and return with the item she was requesting. By the end of the storm, her most frequent comment was, “I’m glad you’re my husband.”

Lessons Learned:

  • An “All is Well” attitude will get you killed. Take threats seriously.
  • Have your water taken care of now. It will be one less critical thing to worry about in an emergency.
  • Keep fuel in sufficient quantities for emergencies.
  • Batteries, batteries, batteries.
  • Be able to cook outside.
  • Thieves and looters will come, even in rural areas.
  • It’s not really a disaster if you can still go to Wal-Mart.

Letter Re: I Thought that I Was Ready!

I have just returned to my house after 6 days without power. I Thought I was ready. I had plenty of beans, Band-Aids, bullion and bullets. What I didn’t have was the stuff I needed to get through the first week of a massive power outage. We still had water, even though I had an additional 50 gallons of fresh, treated water for myself, The Beautiful Wife (TBW) and the pets. We had enough short term food that we were able to provide a chili meal for some of our friends and coworkers that were doing without. We had more money of all kinds than we needed. What I hadn’t planned for, was the first week. We had enough flashlights, but a headlight would have served much better. Cooking with a flashlight leave the cook one hand short. I knew that I had a Coleman propane camp stove, but I had neglected to put the propane and the connector hose with the stove. I had a Coleman lantern for light, but I had used the last pair of mantels and had not replaced them, you know, I’ll get them on sale or when we go to town next. And then I forgot! I would have paid three times what the cost just to be able to read after dark. Same thing for the propane, I had one for the grill, one for the stove (Oh, yea, I don’t know where that one is), and a spare. Oh, the spare is in the travel trailer, and has an inch of ice over the storage door. Hummmm! Thank goodness for deicer. Oh, yea, I had to go dig that out of storage in another box.

Have a list! Know what things you need to rotate, replace, use up, whatever. Make sure your BTW or your closest friend knows where that list is, and what it means. Abbreviations on a list that have meaning to you, are worthless to your partner, unless they know what they stand for.

Drill! Work with your partner to fine tune the list. We both knew where the spot flashlight was, we thought! We had moved less than a year ago, and the spot flashlight we both thought we knew the location of, well that was in the old house. We found it in the travel trailer on the fourth day. Have a scavenger hunt and find random items on the list. Where is the fire extinguisher, the spot flashlight, the propane for the stove? What do you need to splint my broken arm from a fall in the ice? How am I supposed to get you to a medical facility without a phone?

I have been reading SurvivalBlog for a year now, and I thought I was doing pretty good. Boy, was I wrong!

Keep up the good work and God Bless. – Ray B.

Letter Re: Tool Maintenance and Spares

Sir:
Hand tools are nearly useless if not properly maintained. This concept seems under emphasized in preparedness literature.

One should have a stash of assorted files and sharpening stones, as they can be broken or worn out.

Items like hacksaw blades that are nearly impossible to make at home should be acquired in quantity. People should also buy a quantity of tool steel and drill rod suitable for fashioning cutting tools.

Thanks for your advice on your blog site and for your novel “Patriots” . Regards, – Jim J.

Economics and Investing:

From GG: Revelations of hidden Greek debt “last straw”. And here is a related news story: EU toughens demands on Greece

Flavio sent this linkio: It’s Official: California Housing Production Reached New Low in 2009. Down 83% from the 2004 peak!

Pioneering blogger Hugh Hewitt says: We Are Headed For A Fiscal Stroke. (A tip of the hat to Damon for the link.)

Chad S. flagged this: U.S. May Lose 824,000 Jobs as Employment Data Revised

Items from The Economatrix:

Note from JWR: Cheryl (aka The Economatrix) wrote me to mention that there is up to two feet of fresh snow expected there soon, as well as high winds and some freezing rain. So she might be out of contact. Throw another log on the fire, Cheryl!

False Hope in Financial Free Lunch (The Mogambo Guru)

Jim Rogers: Federal Reserve is Worsening the Depression

The Subtle Nationalization of the Banks and Housing Market

Homeowners May Still Owe Even After Foreclosure

Data on Service Sector Show a Struggling Recovery

Gasoline Rises After Unexpected Supply Drop