The “Power of Ten” Planning Model, by Sandkicker

This article has nothing to do with any special properties of the number ten, but rather refers to a progressive planning method based on the size of a problem. This is a way to organize thinking and planning for chaotic situations.  

“If you fail to plan, you’ve planned to fail”.   It would be irresponsible to present any particular plan as suitable for everyone, however, these are some guidelines on how and why you should develop your own plans.  Why do I have the nerve to write this piece?   I’ve been in the middle of more than one “adventure”… and in only one of them did I have any preplanned resources.  I’ve been thinking and planning about survival issues for decades.

SHTF or TEOTWAWKI can mean different things at different times.  While many web sites focus on total breakdowns, the fact is that for any given person walking across the street without looking both ways and being killed by a truck, it’s the same as the whole planet getting smacked by a 50 mile wide asteroid.  The focus of the “Power of Ten” is based on the premise that almost everyone has sudden small emergencies. Preparation for small emergencies as a part of a larger overall plan is a useful approach, because a small one day emergency can stretch out to many days.  Those who are prepared have the chance at survival    

Consider some small emergencies: Imagine losing electric power for four hours. Depending on individual circumstances, this can be an annoyance, up to a catastrophe. Suppose power goes out for four days. Again, depending on weather and climate, this can become a much bigger problem.  My daughter and her husband live in deep New England. Last winter their power went out for days.   No heat, frozen pipes – and even though they were able to get a generator, they had to spend a good bit of time on the phone with me to figure out how to connect it. Do you have a generator? Do you know how to safely hook it up? Do you know why it might not be a good idea to power up your whole house and light it like a Christmas tree? Do you know how to hook up even a small generator to keep just your vital services going?  Will your existing plan for a SHTF situation have any elements in it to help if the power goes out during a 2 day ice storm?

Enough examples, so let’s get to the point.

Every one needs a plan, a realistic plan.  If the plan isn’t written down and everyone who is to participate in that plan does not understand it and their clearly defined roles in the plan, then you don’t have a plan!  The facts are that, “No plan survives its first touch with reality” and “You can’t plan for everything”.  But you can -and must- start to plan with everyone in your household included.

No plan can cover all eventualities when first written, or ever for that matter.  GOOD plans are written to reflect one’s understanding of what they are trying to accomplish with what resources they have at any one time.  GOOD plans are read, reviewed and revised as necessary.  The best plans cover a range of problems.  They contain bits and pieces that help with small, large and huge problems and for scenarios never anticipated. Hence the title of this piece.

Here is where the “power of 10” can help you to get organized. Plan for… 1 day, 10 days, 100 days, 1,000 days….(and gulp)…10,000 days.  You cannot get to day 10 if you don’t survive day 1 and not to day 100 unless you survive day 10.

I am a firm believer in modular planning,  The plan to survive 10,000 days (Yes, 27+ years) is made of elements that one uses to survive 1, 10 and 100 days… after all, on Day 1, there isn’t going to be an announcement saying.. “This event will be over in…” that you can believe anyway!   I believe that it is totally foolish to start one’s planning with “How am I going to survive a total collapse”.   Start with a 1 day plan for each season and for different events, then work towards the 10 day plan, again for each season and for different events. Doing this will help you build that 1,000 or 10,000 day plan more effectively.  You should already have handy what you need for the “one day plan”, if not, get it, then work towards the 10 day plan. When you have that plan written and reviewed, it’s time to start implementing.  Buy what you need and set it aside so it can be used.  Talk to the whole family about the plan.  Include everyone – kids, old folks, and don’t overlook pets.

As an example, I live in a coastal community on the eastern seaboard.  My one day plans are one set of plans, my 10 day plans another…and my 10 day plan will vary depending on what I’m planning for.  A winter ice storm that kills power is one plan, and evacuating in the event of a hurricane, quite another.  Folks talk about are they going to be “Bugging In” or “Bugging Out”.  When asked which you will do, the only correct answer should be, “It Depends!”  You need to be ready for the unexpected.  How do you do that?   Think independence, dependence on nothing other than what you have in hand. When talking to a friend about this essay, they said, “One day plan, who needs one?”.  Who?  Me, you, everyone!  I’ve been traveling worldwide for business on and off since the days of the Boeing 707s.  My rule after my first flight:  always have in hand what you need for at least 24 hours without outside help when you leave for the airport. More than once over the years, this policy has made my life immensely easier and more comfortable. Additionally, planning and acting on a day to day basis for emergencies, instantiates a “survival mentality” that realistically, we need to be in constantly.  Most often, emergencies do not come with warnings ahead of time.

I firmly believe that the minimum plan one should have thought through, written out, and implemented is the 10 day plan… for both “bug-in” and “bugout”.  And on the subject of “bugging out”: One needs to have different destinations for different scenarios.  There are a pair or scenarios that I’ve planned for where we bug out to my brother’s home well north of me and a scenario where he comes here.

As to getting from here to there… as mentioned above I live in a coastal community.  On summer weekends, 90 min trips from “the city” can take four hours in good weather.  If it got to be “bugout” time for us, the last piece of road I’ll be driving on will be the local superhighway. I’m sure if most of you think about it, that nice bit of superhighway that’s your first thought for any trip won’t be viable.    Plan your routes, and your secondary route and if you are fortunate enough… a third route. Try not to depend on the Interstates.  Don’t plan to use that great GPS navigation box in your car.  The GPS system is managed by the government.  It can and has been shut down in the past by the government when they thought they had a need.  Get good paper maps. Mark routes.  As to the Interstates, the legislation that funded them states that the Government can restrict use of the Interstates to military use only as needed.

Okay… you should work towards having plans as follows:

1 and 10 Day:

 

Weather Related

Infrastructure

Civil Breakdown

Winter

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Spring

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Summer

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Fall

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

This does not mean that you need 24 plans… In your individual situation, you probably will only need 2 or 3 bug-in and bug out plans that you can use/reuse/equip/stock as modules.  And for all bugout scenarios, plan what you will do if you end up on foot.

Beyond 10 days to 100 days and beyond…

Now things get more difficult.  You can stock up on 6 months or a year of “survival food” which may work out, if you and that food all get to be in the same place. Is your Bug-Out Vehicle a diesel powered International Harvester all-wheel drive 26 foot truck?  How about stocking six months or a year of required medications?  Or six months or a year’s worth of fuel?

Frankly, somewhere between 10 and 100 days is where the (first) big crunch will happen. I’ve heard some say… “Oh, I’ve got my retreat in western “Pennsyltucky” all stocked up!” Yes, you can do that, and that could be your plan, however, I suggest that if all you are going to do is move your kith and kin to a isolated place in the “wherever”, and sit on and eat off your stockpile without having any skills related to the current situation to contribute to the community, you will become a foraging opportunity.  Plan on bringing “value” to whatever community you will be moving into (i.e., hedge fund managers without any other skills, need not apply).  No matter what you bring or have stockpiled, if you don’t have useful skills to bring to the community appropriate to the situation, you will just become a burden to that infrastructure -which is likely to need help not an additional burden.  BTW, being a good shot and well armed is necessary, but not sufficient in my context.

I don’t have any guidelines to share for these very long range plans other than the speculation that beyond 100 days, either our military will be moving in and trying to bring order, or… someone else’s military will (barring an extinction event asteroid),   as one of our “creditors” may decide to “foreclose” to “protect their interests”, or for “humanitarian interests” .   When the military moves in, I suspect that those whose plans started with:  “ my 12 gauge, my AK and my 9mm and 1,000 rounds for each” and ended with a backpack or pickup truck full of food and a plan to high tail it into the woods somewhere, will either be waiting for a burial detail to get to them, or run the risk of being hunted like vermin.

To sum it up…Create a written plan.  Address specific scenarios. (note plural).  Review and discuss plans with those who will be included in them. Change (improve) them as events and resources will allow.  Plans need to be practiced.  Plans should include action/role sheets for everyone, especially for an emergency bugout.  As a small example: last week, my wife and I went to the local range.  I very much wanted to bring my spotting scope as we were firing an iron sighted 22 LR bolt action rifle among other things and I needed it to see shots in the black at 25 yards.  When we unloaded at the range, no spotting scope!   I’d left it home.

Your plans, or even the existence of them, probably should not be topics of conversations at back yard barbeques as there is always at least one “opportunist” at one.  Get to know your neighbors, to see if they could be depended on for mutual aid. You don’t have to like them, but you may need to trust them.  That crusty grump up the street may very well have skills and experience that could be handy.  Running off into the sunset, or the hills, or turning your home/farm/retreat in the boonies into an armed bunker is not a plan… it’s the survivalist fairy tale.  Only those who plan are the ones who may have the chance to live happily ever after.



Two Letters Re: Lessons Learned from the Oklahoma Ice Storm of 2010

Dear Editor:
The Oklahoma Ice Storm of 2010 is now melting away and as usual there were lessons learned.   Many of these should have been “known” before but we are never as prepared as we should be.  In that vein I am going to rehash several things that went right, a few that went wrong, and others that we can improve on the next time that “life as usual” is not.

First, the setting: I live in Southwestern Oklahoma and have been here for almost three years.  About January 22nd we started getting word of an impending ice/snow storm scheduled to hit on about January 28th.  As the storm came together we received updates that refined the details.  The reports of January 27th were remarkably accurate to what we would receive as well as the specific times that each type of precipitation would start to fall.

In our town it started to rain at about 7 a.m. on January 28th.   As the temperature dropped that rain froze on metal objects, then on trees and plants, and finally on roads.  At approximately 3 p.m. the rain changed over to sleet and ice pellets and by 9 p.m. we were getting snow.  Unfortunately an inch+ of ice and two inches of sleet/ ice had already destroyed many trees and power lines (both the small distribution lines in town and the major transmission lines into town) were down.
 
Electricity went out about 11 a.m. and was restored by 3 p.m.  It went out again at 4 p.m. and would remain off at our house for the next six days.  This power outage was universal for every house in town and every town within a 30 mile radius.  I should mention that throughout the storm we had full water, sewer, and natural gas service.  There was concern at one point that the sewers would back up, (the sewer lagoons are at an elevation where the sewage has to be pumped to them) and those concerns brought about the possibility of the city turning off the water to prevent sewer backup but power was restored before this eventuality.

Second, the good news list.  Now that we are settled into what we hope is our last home, we keep on hand sufficient food to last for approximately six months.  With reasonable rationing we could go even longer.  We have a good rotation system and keep on hand about four months worth of food that we eat every day and two months worth of emergency type rations.

We enjoy camping and backpacking and have all the equipment to do both activities year round and be comfortable.  This includes lighter weight stoves, packs, tents and sleeping bags and water purifiers to campsite sized Coleman cook stoves, lanterns, Dutch ovens, tents, cots and heavy sleeping bags.  While most of this equipment was not used it was comforting to know that if the situation continued to deteriorate, that we could adapt.

We bought a standard frame house with brick veneer when we moved to Oklahoma which is approximately 35 years old.  We haven’t spent money on kitchen, bathroom or carpet upgrades but we have put 20 inches of blown insulation throughout (to include over the garage and the porches) and we replaced all of the original double pane aluminum frame windows with energy efficient vinyl frame windows.  Realizing that it is possible to do better, we were still pleased that during one seventeen hour period without any heat source in the house, outside temperatures from 17 to 26 degrees, and 20 mph winds, the temperature in the house only dropped five degrees from 67 to 62.

The house has two hot water heaters-one electric that services two bathrooms and one natural gas that services the kitchen and laundry room.  It was very easy to take hot water to the bathtubs and perform personal hygiene.  Showers were courtesy of the two gallon watering bucket that my wife uses to keep the sun room flowers fresh.

The regular phone system remained operational throughout the storm and recovery period.  However, folks that only had cordless phone systems could not access the lines.  In some cases phones with integrated answering systems could dial out but the phones would not ring if the ringer depended on plug in electricity.  We have one of the old style rotary phones that works perfectly on the telephone line current and were able to send and receive calls.

We topped off all the vehicles and gas cans a couple of days before the storm.  I anticipated trouble getting more fuel trucks to town.  What I did not think about was the gas station could not pump gas without electricity anyway.  Ultimately one old fashioned gas station in town hooked up a generator and could run receipts in his office.  Credit cards did not work so cash or an established charge account with the owner was the way to do business.
 
Third, what we can do better.  We have a lot of candles.  I have not done an inventory but there are boxes of them.  We discovered that candles that are about an inch in diameter are optimal.  Larger candles, 2-1/2 to 4 inches burn down in the center and leave a candle rim that blocks light. Ultimately they just shine a small circle of light on the ceiling.  We also learned that the best candles put out very little light.  We have a couple of antique oil lamps but they are for decoration and did not have wicks in them.  We are going to acquire more oil lamps, maintain them, and keep sufficient oil on hand for 4-to-6 months.

In the brain dead category we have Coleman stoves and lamps that are dual fuel.  Unfortunately I gave all of our Coleman fuel to the Boy Scouts so we failed in “Being Prepared”.  We shifted to our propane stoves.  I need to point out that these stoves should not be used indoors.  We cooked outside on the patio.  When we do get around to remodeling the kitchen I am going to replace the stove top with a gas appliance.  While we did not bake, we did have the capability by placing a Dutch oven on the propane stove.

In the final analysis we look at the Oklahoma Ice Storm of 2010 as being the most lavish camping trip that we have ever been on.  We never felt as though there were any true hardships and after the initial storm period we spent a lot of time outdoors enjoying the snow and volunteering at the local Red Cross warming/feeding center doing whatever was asked of us.  We look forward to implementing a few changes and the next opportunity to test our preparedness.

Hello!
I am new to reading your blog and love it! I wanted to comment on the ice storm post. I live in Oklahoma so we know all about these ice storms. I started reading a lot of blogs on prepping and storing food during the holidays. I decided to make a menu and strict food budget so I could afford to buy extra food for long-term storage. I bought a month’s worth of food this January. I also bought my first water storage container – a 7 gallon Aqua-Tainer from Wal-Mart. Last year, I had a gas heater mounted on my dining room wall, preparing myself for the next inevitable ice storm. A few days before the storm, I bought emergency candles and I am so glad I did! We didn’t lose power (thankfully!), but our little town was cleaned out of generators, candles, Coleman stoves, propane, kerosene….everything. I went to Wal-Mart a few days later (when power was still out all over the county) and the shelves were completely empty in some areas. That was a wake-up call to me. In just a few short days, stores can be emptied. It is wise to not wait until the last minute. I am a single mom and a teacher and I know how difficult it is to come up with extra money to help become better prepared. I am doing a little each month and will sleep soundly knowing that my kids will be warm and fed if anything happens. By the way, the ice storm hit seven days ago and people are still without power.

Thanks for the wonderful blog and such useful information! – Kay in Oklahoma



Economics and Investing:

There has been a veritable torrent of bad economic news in the past few days. Here is just a sampling…

Ponzi Scheme: The Federal Reserve Bought Approximately 80 Percent Of U.S. Treasury Securities Issued In 2009. (Thanks to Duane for the link.)

George Gordon (“GG”) sent this: 20 Reasons Global Debt Time Bomb Explodes Soon

Also from GG: Sprott: Gold to gain 30% in 2010, higher interest rates to hurt US economy

and another from GG: Fears of ‘Lehman-style’ tsunami as crisis hits Spain and Portugal

Chad S. forwarded this: North Korea’s economic moves bring new misery

John G. liked this piece over at Zero Hedge: The Next Leg Of The Housing Crisis In Five Simple Charts

Items from The Economatrix:

Stocks Sink in on Economy Jitters; Dow Below 9,900

Companies Boost Productivity and Put Off Hiring

Bond Yields Tumble on Latest European Debt Worries

Stocks, Commodities Plunge as Dollar Gains

Retailers Likely to Close More US Stores



Odds ‘n Sods:

Please stop! Some well-intentioned (but naive) folks are forwarding the e-mail titled “See with your own eyes Nephilim” with several Photoshop-doctored pictures of supposed skeletal remains of 16-foot tall humanoids. Here is a link to one of the original photos that they doctored. Again, please stop forwarding this fakery!

   o o o

Kurt B. sent this: Nuclear missile threats to U.S. mount; Report warns of Pyongyang’s aims

   o o o

Chad S. spotted another piece from Nanny State Britannia: Cheers! Brits toast new shatterproof pint glass. Chad Adds: “Note that this was developed by the British Government, not private industry.”



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The people of every country are the only guardians of their own rights and are the only instruments which can be used for their destruction. It is an axiom in my mind that our liberty can never be safe but in the hands of people themselves, that, too, of the people with a certain degree of instruction." – Thomas Jefferson, in a letter to W.S. Smith, 1787



Notes from JWR:

A curious thing happened yesterday (Thursday, February 4th). Both the stock markets and precious metals markets declined. Traditionally, they have moved in opposite directions, but we are living in curious times. I took advantage of the dip in metals and bought some more silver. (I hope that you do likewise, on dip days. I’ve mentioned that countless times in SurvivalBlog. Has it sunk in yet?)

Today we present another entry for Round 27 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 27 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Lessons Learned From an Ice Storm, by G. in the Zarks

While watching the local weather over the last few days, it has become apparent that a winter storm is heading for our part of the world, bringing with it the distinct possibility of not just snow, but significant amounts of ice. As I pondered this, it brought to mind our recent experiences with ice storms over the last few years, most notably in January 2007. I thought some of our “lessons learned” were worth sharing with others.

We had been blessed with several years of reasonably mild winters leading up to the 2007 storm. Unfortunately, the good times often seem to lull people into a state of complacency, characterized by an artificial sense of well-being and overall lack of awareness. This is, of course, what the late Colonel Cooper referred to as Condition White.

I freely admit to being somewhat guilty of the “All is Well” syndrome where the weather was concerned also. While I have spent my entire adult life trying to make sure my family is prepared for the myriad of difficulties we experience, I must confess that when the weather man said “Chance of ice,” I didn’t really take him all that seriously. I failed to properly evaluate the nature of the threat. In that particular instance, I didn’t think through the potential ice storm scenario to any great degree, because I considered myself and my family to already be prepared for this event. At the very least, I should have gone through the mental exercise of “what if” and reviewed the supplies I had in contrast to what I was likely to need in this situation. In a real emergency, “All is Well” can get you killed.

The ice came. In the early hours of the morning I awoke to find the power had gone off. This was, frankly, no surprise to me. Temporary interruptions in the grid caused by weather are far from unusual here. What I couldn’t know at the time was our power would not be back on for 8 days. Neighbors not far from us were out for 13 days. In contrast, power in the closest town was only out for hours.

Upon waking, I immediately got up, woke my wife and told her the power was out, and took a hot shower before the water in the tank had a chance to cool. My wife did likewise. A hot shower can become an unbelievable luxury in a surprisingly short period of time when the power is out. (Yes, our hot water heater is “gasp!” electric.) Also, I filled the bathtub and several buckets with water in case the generators failed at the local water district. I already had several cases of drinking water and approximately 200 gallons in drums in the garage as well. These are standard precautions on our part, regardless of the time of year.

Heat was the next issue we tackled. Our home is all-electric, but we supplement the electric furnace with portable kerosene heaters in order to keep utility bills manageable. I isolated the living room, which is where we spend most of our waking hours, by stapling blankets over the doorways leading to our hallways and kitchen. This five-minute modification allowed me to more efficiently heat the living room with a kerosene heater, and minimized heat loss into the unused areas of the house. I used the same “compartment” approach at night when heating the bedroom. Of course, kerosene heaters should never be left unattended for any period of time, and a battery-powered CO detector is a must.

A second important lesson regarding heat is to have ample fuel supplies on-hand to handle an emergency. We were burning kerosene on a daily basis before the storm. When the weather forecast seemed ominous, I asked my wife to pick up an extra container of kerosene on her way home from work, since I work long shifts and would not be away from work before the station closed. She forgot, and we faced the storm with less than 5 gallons of kerosene. On the heels of the ice came painfully low temperatures for several days. It became clear that we would not have sufficient fuel for our heaters to last throughout the cold snap. Furthermore, a large percent of the local population had turned to kerosene heaters in the absence of electricity. Local suppliers soon ran out of kerosene. As a result, I eventually found myself standing in line for approximately four hours in order to purchase 10 gallons of kerosene, when it became available. Fortunately, I did have enough cash on hand to make the needed transaction. ATMs were only intermittently operational. The wait, outdoors in single-digit temperatures, with a few hundred other unfortunates, was by far the most valuable lesson I received during this time. The helplessness, anxiety, and shame associated with my lack of preparation have impacted me deeply. By the way, I now buy kerosene in 55 gallon drums. No more queues for me.

That covers water, shelter, and heat. Our next issue was light. I keep several Dietz lanterns and two Aladdin lamps along with several gallons of high-grade lamp oil on hand. Illumination was not a problem. In addition, I have a wide variety of Surefire brand flashlights and spare lithium batteries for nighttime chores around the house. All of the above were put to good use. I was even able to supply some of my neighbors with Dietz lanterns and oil during the time we were off-grid. Several valuable lessons concerning light were learned. First, the Aladdin lamps are excellent, albeit somewhat expensive. They are bright when used according to the instructions. So bright, in fact, that I recommend anyone planning on using them also spend the extra money for lamp shades. They are definitely bright enough to read by without undue eyestrain. They also give off significant amounts of heat, which was helpful in the cold temperatures. They would be less pleasant to utilize in hot weather, however. I was actually able to boil water by holding a metal cup over the top of the chimney for a brief time. This was an excellent technique for preparing some of the freeze-dried Mountain House food we ate during the event. Buy at least twice as many mantles and chimneys as you think you will need, as these are the most fragile parts of the lamp. Also, read the instructions.

Dietz lanterns are excellent tools for the money, but are significantly less bright than the Aladdins. They are easier to use when you are moving around as they have handles and can be carried while lit. All the standard precautions apply when using anything that is actively burning while you handle it.

Surefire lights are also outstanding illumination tools. The major shortfall is battery life. I discovered that when you are using them as a primary illumination source, you will go through a surprising number of batteries. The good news is the batteries generally have a shelf life measured in years, so you can afford to stock up without worrying too much about discharge rates. Don’t buy CR-123 batteries from places like Wal-Mart; they are too expensive there. Instead, order them directly from Surefire’s web site. You can get them in bulk for less than $2 per battery. The battery life problem can also be mitigated somewhat by buying the newer generation of LED lights, as opposed to the older ones with the xenon bulbs.

Food was not an issue due to pre-existing stocks. All our cooking was done outside on a propane burner from a turkey fryer. Coffee prepared in an enameled percolator was definitely the biggest morale-booster from day to day. We even had friends over for “Mountain House night” to provide a little levity and fellowship in an otherwise dreary situation.

The same morning that the power went off, I removed all perishables from the refrigerator and stored them in a Rubbermaid tub in the cold garage. That food was prepared and eaten first. The freezers were left closed as much as possible, and wrapped with blankets for additional insulation. I keep a 5kw generator with the tank drained along with several gallons of stabilized fuel (religiously rotated) and sufficient oil. My only purpose for the genset is to keep the freezers frozen in just such situations. Only one of my freezers in indoors, the others being outside. It was only necessary to run the generator for a couple of hours every two to three days to maintain the integrity of the frozen food. In retrospect, it would be advisable to have the ability to connect the genset to portions of the house (with the appropriate safety measures, of course) for added flexibility in using a limited number of electric appliances.

During the crisis, I had two different coworkers whose homes were “cased” by potential thieves. Each home was rural and isolated, with no neighbors in direct line-of sight. Fortunately, in both cases, when the armed homeowners confronted the would-be thieves, they wisely ran away.

Keep in mind that, while the power was off for several days, this was in fact only a pseudo-disaster. Roads remained passable, and within a day, Wal-Mart was open for business. Within hours they sold out of bottled water, candles, lamps & lamp oil, manual can openers, flashlights, batteries (D-cells were the most in demand), milk, bread, and most foodstuffs that don’t require preparation. Over the course of three days, I watched my closest neighbor make at least two trips to Wal-Mart per day, returning with armloads of white plastic bags each trip. Also, within days, there were enterprising individuals selling small generators out of the back of tractor-trailers. You could hear the rattle and hum of Briggs & Stratton engines in almost every direction.

On a personal note, the experience was also a validation of the preparedness mindset for my wife. While she has always been supportive of my efforts to prepare, she was from time to time also prone to grumbling about the amount of space occupied by our preparedness supplies. More than once during the storm, she would say something like “Gee, it would be nice if we had…” upon which I would go to the back room, rummage around and return with the item she was requesting. By the end of the storm, her most frequent comment was, “I’m glad you’re my husband.”

Lessons Learned:

  • An “All is Well” attitude will get you killed. Take threats seriously.
  • Have your water taken care of now. It will be one less critical thing to worry about in an emergency.
  • Keep fuel in sufficient quantities for emergencies.
  • Batteries, batteries, batteries.
  • Be able to cook outside.
  • Thieves and looters will come, even in rural areas.
  • It’s not really a disaster if you can still go to Wal-Mart.


Letter Re: I Thought that I Was Ready!

I have just returned to my house after 6 days without power. I Thought I was ready. I had plenty of beans, Band-Aids, bullion and bullets. What I didn’t have was the stuff I needed to get through the first week of a massive power outage. We still had water, even though I had an additional 50 gallons of fresh, treated water for myself, The Beautiful Wife (TBW) and the pets. We had enough short term food that we were able to provide a chili meal for some of our friends and coworkers that were doing without. We had more money of all kinds than we needed. What I hadn’t planned for, was the first week. We had enough flashlights, but a headlight would have served much better. Cooking with a flashlight leave the cook one hand short. I knew that I had a Coleman propane camp stove, but I had neglected to put the propane and the connector hose with the stove. I had a Coleman lantern for light, but I had used the last pair of mantels and had not replaced them, you know, I’ll get them on sale or when we go to town next. And then I forgot! I would have paid three times what the cost just to be able to read after dark. Same thing for the propane, I had one for the grill, one for the stove (Oh, yea, I don’t know where that one is), and a spare. Oh, the spare is in the travel trailer, and has an inch of ice over the storage door. Hummmm! Thank goodness for deicer. Oh, yea, I had to go dig that out of storage in another box.

Have a list! Know what things you need to rotate, replace, use up, whatever. Make sure your BTW or your closest friend knows where that list is, and what it means. Abbreviations on a list that have meaning to you, are worthless to your partner, unless they know what they stand for.

Drill! Work with your partner to fine tune the list. We both knew where the spot flashlight was, we thought! We had moved less than a year ago, and the spot flashlight we both thought we knew the location of, well that was in the old house. We found it in the travel trailer on the fourth day. Have a scavenger hunt and find random items on the list. Where is the fire extinguisher, the spot flashlight, the propane for the stove? What do you need to splint my broken arm from a fall in the ice? How am I supposed to get you to a medical facility without a phone?

I have been reading SurvivalBlog for a year now, and I thought I was doing pretty good. Boy, was I wrong!

Keep up the good work and God Bless. – Ray B.



Letter Re: Tool Maintenance and Spares

Sir:
Hand tools are nearly useless if not properly maintained. This concept seems under emphasized in preparedness literature.

One should have a stash of assorted files and sharpening stones, as they can be broken or worn out.

Items like hacksaw blades that are nearly impossible to make at home should be acquired in quantity. People should also buy a quantity of tool steel and drill rod suitable for fashioning cutting tools.

Thanks for your advice on your blog site and for your novel “Patriots” . Regards, – Jim J.



Economics and Investing:

From GG: Revelations of hidden Greek debt “last straw”. And here is a related news story: EU toughens demands on Greece

Flavio sent this linkio: It’s Official: California Housing Production Reached New Low in 2009. Down 83% from the 2004 peak!

Pioneering blogger Hugh Hewitt says: We Are Headed For A Fiscal Stroke. (A tip of the hat to Damon for the link.)

Chad S. flagged this: U.S. May Lose 824,000 Jobs as Employment Data Revised

Items from The Economatrix:

Note from JWR: Cheryl (aka The Economatrix) wrote me to mention that there is up to two feet of fresh snow expected there soon, as well as high winds and some freezing rain. So she might be out of contact. Throw another log on the fire, Cheryl!

False Hope in Financial Free Lunch (The Mogambo Guru)

Jim Rogers: Federal Reserve is Worsening the Depression

The Subtle Nationalization of the Banks and Housing Market

Homeowners May Still Owe Even After Foreclosure

Data on Service Sector Show a Struggling Recovery

Gasoline Rises After Unexpected Supply Drop





Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"I have also learned from experience that the greater part of our happiness or misery depends on our dispositions, and not on our circumstances. We carry the seeds of the one or the other about with us in our minds wherever we go." – Martha Washington, from The Life of Washington by Anna C. Reed, niece of a signer of the Declaration of Independence; first published in 1842 by the American Sunday-School Union, now called the American Missionary Fellowship (AMF).



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 27 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 27 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Shelter During Turbulent Times, by Alex C., Engineer

In every TEOTWAWKI circumstance shelter is of paramount concern.  It’s actually a concern every day of our lives, but we seldom think about it – we take the roof over our head almost as a given right in country.  Our houses or “castles” as some states call them are so sacred many states allow us to use deadly force – no questions asked – if someone illegally violates our home’s hallowed ground. 

For a survivalist, “prepper” or even casually concerned citizen preparing for some sort of unknown future disaster, water, food, guns/ammo, fuel, backpacks, etc. are all high on the packing list.  Depending on the geographic part of the US, some citizens may have chains saws and their associated spare parts.  Some really prepared folks may have some hand tools, nails, and hand saws stored away.  But how many people have stored away any building materials?  If a can of beans is going to be hard to find after a natural disaster, how hard is it going to be to find a 2×4, or piece of plywood?

Obviously we can not predict the future or what disasters lay before us.  History tells us weather and nature can do damage at any time whether it be a volcano eruption in Yellowstone, a snow-storm in the Rockies, hurricane on the coast, or a Midwest drought.  We also know there are a lot of people in the world that wish severe harm on the United States.  We don’t know when a terrorist will strike and to what degree – damage could be an internet attack, a dirty bomb, an device, a nuclear bomb, etc.  Perhaps the disaster is economic and the financial sector of our country crumbles.  In any case…and probably even more so during a disaster…a roof over our head is one of the basic necessities of life: water, food, and shelter.

Not everyone in this country is a carpenter and or experienced in home design, but most of us know what are homes are made of by seeing homes under construction, looking in the attic, or doing small remodel projects on your house.  How many trips does it take to the hardware store to fix a leaky faucet?  One, two, three?   And that’s just a faucet.  What happens if a tree falls on your roof, or the wind blows out a window, or the snow from a large storm causes a portion of your roof to collapse? 

Preparing the Shelter
Starting from the earliest notions of preparation, prevention is clearly the best remedy to a structural failure during a disaster.  If possible work with a reputable engineer to design a structure that meets and exceeds all of your possible worst case hazards – be it tornadoes, hurricanes, flooding, snow, extreme temperatures, gun fire, intruders, etc.  Just about anything short of a direct nuclear blast can be part of the engineering equations used to design your house/retreat. (It’s not standard procedure but it can be done.)  Even some seemingly severe hazards such as gun fire can easily and cheaply be negated with the use of proper materials.

For those of us that missed the boat on getting it right before it was built and have to deal with a house or retreat that is already built to some pre-existing building code or perhaps no building code, what can be done?  Contact an expert engineer, builder, survivalist, home protection company and have them offer professional advice on ways to mitigate and or strengthen the structure for atypical situations such as gun fire.  Some examples of “home improvements” include steel doors/bullet resistant doors, unconventional door locks such as hidden dead bolts/hinges and heavy timber braces, bullet proof window replacements, walk in safe roofs (easily done in a basement with CMU blocks), adding a standing-seam metal roof (snow slides off the roof and does not accumulate), underground escape routes, interior or exterior cisterns, additional bracing of existing walls and roof, and even steel window shutters (a mere 1/4” plate steel will stop many typical small-arms, handgun calibers).

Assuming your residence was either pre-built as a fortress or underwent some “upgrades” towards the fortress classification, what’s next?  Supplies.  Have spare materials on hand to fix potential problems.  Besides the basic plumbing, heating, electrical spare parts, have some building materials stored.  Have several 2×6’s, 2×8’s, 2×10’s, 2×12’s, and plywood or oriented strand board (OSB) pieces at least ½” or thicker kept covered and out of the weather.  Generally the longer the piece the better; a 24 foot 2×12 can be cut into two 12 foot pieces, but it doesn’t work the other way around.  If a window breaks, the plywood would be invaluable to seal the opening – same with the 2x material for a portion of a failing roof, wall, or door jamb.  What if you had to replace a door jamb due to an attempted forced entry, or the loft post in the barn because you backed the tractor into it, or the toilet overflowed and caused the sub-floor underneath it to delaminate?  Are you prepared – remember the hardware store is probably out of supplies, looted, and or closed.  Several large heavy tarps and 10-to-20 bags or concrete and mortar are also highly advised.

Without tools the spare wood is close to worthless.  The basic hand tools should be a given: hammer, nails, screw drivers, hand saws, pry-bars, etc., but it is also worth adding a few more such as large bow saws, two man cross-cut saws, large braces (hand drills) with self-drilling-threaded-tip bits, axes (large and small) adzes, chisels (wood and cold), draw knifes, block and tackles sets/come-along, sledge hammers, large sharpening stones, and or manually powered grinding wheel.  Having an assortment of timber pegs ranging from ½” to 1 ½” in diameter would be helpful. 

Common in the log home industry are a group of fasteners call “log home screws” sold under the brand names of Olylog, TimberLok, Log Home Screw, and GRK.  These screws come in boxes and buckets of 50-500.  They typically have a hex or torx head and are self drilling – commonly accomplished with a strong ½” drive power drill.  They can also be installed by hand with a socket and ratchet wrench.  These screws are the duct tape of the heavy timber framing industry and most are ¼ inch in diameter but scientifically perform like a 3/8” or ½” lag screw.  They are very strong, versatile and can literally be used to bend wood beams.  Have several hundred in various sizes on hand. 

Fixing the Shelter
Up to this point it’s been all about preparation, be it home design, home modifications, tools or materials.  What happens if something goes wrong after TSHTF and the lumber pile in the back yard isn’t enough?  Trees!  Assuming the plot of land on which the fortress resides has some trees, there is wood for the taking.  In general standing dead trees are the most preferred wood source in the drier climate western states; in more humid regions healthy coniferous trees would be preferred.  The subject of timber selection is a book in itself, but here are a few brief reasons for the aforementioned tree type selection.  Wood, in general becomes stiffer as it dries.  (Think of how flexible a living sapling is compared to a similar sized dead sapling.)  Wet wood can also “creep” over time.  This is a sagging of the wood under its own weight and once dry the wood will remain in the bent or sagged formation.  Insects generally like to call living trees home – they may kill the tree in doing so, but most insect and fungal relationships with trees are parasitic in nature as they “suck” the nutrients away from the living tree.  Once the tree is dead, this relationship ceases to exist.  With standing dead trees in dry climates, the wind and sun keep the wood dry and as such eliminate future fungal attacks.  Another issue with live trees is that once the tree is cut down and the wood begins to dry out, it shrinks – often significantly (species and climate dependant).  This shrinking could be ½” in diameter for a 12” diameter log.  Building or repairing a structure with wet wood could cause gaps, bad joints, and even structural failure if not properly addressed in the building design.  In more humid parts of the country (coasts and east of the Mississippi), standing dead timber may be not be a sound choice.  If decay is noted, move on.  Decay or fungus is like an iceberg – only 10% of the potential threat is visible.  In other words, if fungus is noted on the outside of the tree, the inside of the tree is probably 10 times as bad – at least on a microscopic level and structural strength level.

What about hardwoods or deciduous trees?  Hardwoods are strong indeed, but often heavier, harder to work with, and seldom grow as tall and straight as softwoods (conifers, evergreens, etc.). 

So the damage is done, for whatever reason a structural member in the house, barn, or garage needs to be replaced and a direct replacement isn’t available.  How big of a tree should be cut?  If the tree is standing dead without any cones, leaves or even branches, look at the surround living forest.  Chances are the species is the same as one of the living trees.  In most cases, species won’t be a determining characteristic as most people won’t be able to discern the exact species anyway.  But stay away from aspen, birch, and alder.  These species are of the “hardwood” variety (deciduous trees) but generally very weak and decay rapidly when exposed to water.  Douglas Fir and Southern Yellow Pine trees produce some of the strongest wood available in the United States and both are conifers. 

If insulating characteristics are the most important, go with a lightweight, non-dense wood such as spruce or cedar.  If it’s bullets that need to be stopped, the heaviest and densest woods such as southern pine, oak, hickory, would be the best option.

The size of the tree should be close or bigger than the size of the wood member it is replacing.  Unless there is a bio-diesel sawmill on the ranch, the tree probably isn’t going to be cut down to size in terms of width and thickness – only length.  Look for straight, tall, trees with small branches (knots), no visible decay, and no visible gouges, holes, or sap pockets – all which decrease the strength of the wood.  Spiral grain, often seen on standing dead trees with no bark, significantly weakens the structural strength of the wood.  Straightness of the grain and knot size are typically the two most detrimental characteristics to a piece of wood’s strength.  Strong wood has straight grain and few or only small knots.

 The diameter of the tree should be big enough that the piece it is replacing could theoretically be sawn out of the tree.  For example if the piece that is being replaced is a 2×12 (actual dimensions of 1 ½” x 11 ¼” ) the tree should have an average diameter of at least 11 ¼” for the entire length of the 2×12 it is replacing.  The base of the tree will be slightly larger than 11 ¼ but the top of the tree could be 10 inches in diameter.  With these guidelines the tree will likely be stronger than the 2×12 it is replacing.  Many factors determine the strength of the wood and personal experience/expertise may dictate the use of a smaller diameter tree for a replacement beam (beams are horizontal members carrying load their entire length).  For beams the critical dimension is typically the depth of the beam – in this case the 11 ¼” dimension.  In general the deeper the beam, the stronger the beam. 

Columns, posts, or vertical members carry a vertical load and do not act the same way as beams.  A post should be replaced with a tree of equal or larger diameter – a smaller diameter post should not be used.  The explanation for this is complicated, but if the post/column is too thin it will buckle.  Think if a wooden yard stick and how easy it is to compress the ends and get the stick to bend out of plane (buckling), if that same stick was a 1”x1” square, it would be very difficult to get it to bend out of plane by compressing the ends.

After the tree is cut to the desired length the bark should be removed.  Most insects and fungi attack the tree on its cambium layer (the living cell layer directly under the bark).  Removing the bark allows the tree to dry faster and without moisture most fungi will die.  Insects burrowed in the bark are also removed.  As the tree dries it will shrink in terms of diameter and doing so will create cracks or checks in the surface of the wood.  The cracks may be over ½” wide but are not a structural concern so long as the cracks are parallel to the grain and do not go all the way through the tree.  

Building a New Shelter
If everything else fails, the preparation, and the repair, all is not lost.  It is possible to build a strong, almost bullet, wind, storm proof shelter from the forest.  This assumes access to some six-inch-plus diameter trees.  Suffice to say, this short article isn’t the end all instruction manual for building a log home from scratch.  Several books on the topic do exist, some more useful than others.  Should this plan C option be of interest, it might be worth working with an engineer to design and engineer a structure you might build should the need arise.  The blueprints could be kept on file at the retreat.

In any case a new structure needs to built – and in this case the only tool really necessary is a good axe and sharpening stone – every other tool just makes it easier and faster.  It’s the quintessential log cabin; they’ve been built all over the county and even housed former presidents.

Start with the foundation.  Wood decays when it gets wet and the ground is typically wet at least most of the year in most parts of the country.  If the log cabin is known to be a very short term (6 years or less in drier climates and 2 years or less in wetter climates) structure, it could be built directly on level, drained and compacted soil.  If some sort of longevity is desired a stone foundation would be a good start.  Even if no mortar is used stones, rocks, and boulders can be stacked on top of one another forming a small wall 1-2 feet high.  This would keep the rain, snow, and soil moisture away from the wood.  The first course of logs is then stacked on top of the stone wall.  Obviously if mortar is available, it may be used to strengthen the stone wall – even sand or mud could be used to block air flow through the rocks.

Trees are cut, using the aforementioned selection criteria in terms of species, dead or alive, etc. to the length of the structure.  Larger diameter trees provide better insulation, bullet resistance, and require less trees to be cut, but are heavier and harder to work with.  Smaller diameter trees are easier to maneuver, but don’t match up to the larger diameter trees’ other virtues.  Size may be dictated by what’s in the local forest.

The trees need to be full length extending from corner to corner of the cabin, and a four corner cabin is highly recommended.  (Corners are labor intensive and time consuming to construct.)  For log stacking purposes make sure you have an even number of corners, e.g. even though a three corner structure can be constructed, the log courses don’t work.

The logs are stacked just like “Lincoln Logs” – yes, the kids’ toy.  Lay the east and west logs down parallel to one another and then lay the north and south logs on top of the east and west logs.  The strength and warmth of the structure are determined by the corners.  At a minimum the log should extend approximately two times the log diameter past the corner notch – this extension is called a “tail” or “log tail.”  The notch should be about ½ the diameter of the log and the deeper the notch the tighter the logs will fit to one another.  Notches should be cut so they are facing down – if they are facing up, the notch will hold rain water and allow for decay.  If no notch is used the logs will roll off of each other and there will be larger gaps between the logs.  If an extremely tight fit is desired and time is on available, the logs can be “scribed” or custom cut to fit the log below it.  This lessens and may alleviate the need for any chinking or insulating material between log courses.

The process is repeated until the desired height is achieved.  Door and window openings are cut in with a chain saw or two-man saw after the entire square or rectangle structure is completed.  Once the openings are cut, smaller logs are vertically positioned and fastened to the horizontal log courses around the opening to keep the wall logs from shifting or moving out of plane. 

Some may wonder how to get 1,000 pound logs up to the top course, which may be eight feet high.  It can be done with hand tools, rope, and a few strong men/horse.  Logs are angled from the ground to the top of the wall (i.e. log ramps) and the new log is rolled into position up the angled logs.  Ropes may be used to pull the log into place while some men push it up the log ramps.

As for the roof, the simplest design is that of a shed roof and single pitch.  For example the south wall is made two feet taller than the north wall and log rafters are laid at an angle from the north wall to the south wall.  The east and west ends are in-filled with smaller logs or plywood, or even pine branches.  The steeper the pitch the better the weather protection as rain and snow will run or slide off a steep pitch roof.  A tarp, pine bow, boards, etc. may be used to seal of the roof between the rafters.

Obviously the construction details previously listed for a log cabin are incomplete and overly simplified, but the point is that a new structure – should the need arise – can be built from materials (trees) that may be available on the land.  With a good team of people, a simple rectangular structure could be completed in a few days.  For more information check out the various log cabin construction books or speak with a knowledgeable professional.

All being said and done, clearly the Boy Scout motto of “be prepared” takes the center podium when it comes to shelter.  If at all possible have the shelter pre-engineered to address the worst case loads it may face.  If the structure already exists, then fortify it with the help of a professional.  We talk about storing food, guns/ammo, first aid supplies, and even ourselves in our retreat or house, but what good does a two years supply of food do if the first storm blows off the roof and rain soaks the food supply?



Letter Re: Finding “Just a Little Piece of Land”

Sir:
Do you know of any good web sites that list where you can buy just an acre or so of land in the woods, where people wouldn’t expect you to actually live? I live right on the Florida/Georgia state line so there’s plenty of land around. However, parcels are typically sold in 50 acres or 100 acre chunks. Or [with a lot] they expect you to turn it into a house with a mailbox and all that. I just want some woods. My goal is to excavate for an underground storage shed, with small sleeping quarters. I’ll then gradually fill it up with supplies. Thanks, – Rob C.

JWR Replies: One web site that I recommend watching is RealtyTrac.com. They specialize in listing foreclosed and otherwise “distressed” properties.

You should also ask a few real estate agents in your planned retreat area if they have any listings for any bargain parcels in any of these categories:

  • Landlocked properties,
  • “Access problem” properties,
  • “Off-grid” properties
  • State or National Forest In-holdings, or
  • Patented mining claims

One other possibility (usually just an outside chance, in the more populous states) is to visit the County Assessor’s Office, and ask about any tax delinquent parcels–especially ones with access problems. Depending on the county and state that you live in, these can sometimes be had just for paying the back taxes, or not much more than that.

I believe that the current collapse in the real estate market will create some rare opportunities to buy distressed properties for the next five to ten years. Be vigilant and prayerful. Lord willing, you’ll find the right place at the right price.