Letter Re: Stockpiling Nickels was Easier than I Had Thought

Mr. Rawles,
I took your advice of socking away nickels to heart. I wanted to start off with an ammo can for each member of my family. I figured why not go to the local bank where my wife has banked since 1993?

I went in, filled out the withdrawal slip for $178 (one ammo can) and requested the payout in nickels. The teller then said that if I withdrew $200 instead he can give me two boxes that came from the Fed. They gave me the nickels but told me that they really only give rolled coins to their commercial customers. At least I got my first batch.

I then went to another bank in town that has the account of the club where I’m the club president. I told them we were doing a fundraiser and needed $500 worth of nickels. Because this bank had one of those coin machines, I was able to get $500 of rolled coins in two canvas sacks! I basically saved them the cost of shipping those coins back to the Fed.

The following day I went back to the first bank and asked if I could get more nickels. I told them I was willing to pay the extra fee. They told me that I really had to be a commercial customer. I then asked about coins they receive [from merchants]. They chewed on that and realized that I was saving them money. The downside is that the coins won’t be rolled up. They offered to call me when they had a $100 [face value] bag. I was fine with that.

Lessons learned
– Offer to take the nickels that they are sending back to the Fed. They save money in shipping and get paper money to put right back in circulation.
– Find a bank with a coin counter in the lobby. Those coins may be rolled up already and they will give you the nickels to save them shipping costs.
– When trying to cut a deal, be honest. When I went back to the first bank I told them why I was wanting nickels. We have been loyal customers of the bank and they have done right by us and were willing to work with me.

I found an interesting web site where you can buy $10,000 worth of nickels at face value and copper pennies at spot prices.

Thanks for all you do. Regards, – Cascinus, Jefferson City, Missouri.

JWR Replies: I stand by my prediction that nickels will begin to sell at a substantial premium over their face value in coming years. OBTW, there is a great forum called RealCent for folks that stockpile nickels and the pre-1981 copper pennies. They also have a sub-forum that discusses some survivalist preps–their “Non-Metals section“.

Economics and Investing:

Reader Dan D. recommended this piece by Simon Johnson: Europe Risks Another Global Depression

Commentary from Bill Pesek: Biggest Bubble in History Is Growing Every Day. He’s anticipating big time currency inflation in east Asia. (Thanks to Auby for the link.)

Mike H. recommend this essay by Doug McIntosh, posted over at Steve Quayle’s site: When the Gimmicks Fail

Items from The Economatrix:

Shell Downplays Prospect of Quick Recovery in Oil Demand Despite Profits Rebound

The Bernanke Reappointment: Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid

Planned Layoffs Rise for First Time Since July Economic Report

The Devaluation and Fight for Survival of the American Middle Class

Global Insolvency, How Will the US Service its Debt?

G-7 Seeks to Calm Global Markets, Sustain Rebound

Note from JWR:

To my readers on the East Coast that are presently digging out from 15+ inches of fresh snow: I trust that you were stocked up on food and had alternative sources of heat and light, with plenty of stored fuel. Most of you, I suspect, were so well squared-away that you were able to help out your neighbors. Congratulations on a successful dress rehearsal.

—

Today we present another entry for Round 27 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 27 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Where Have All the Dutch Ovens Gone?, by Curtis M.

A recent post on SurvivalBlog was about baking bread and it talked about building an oven to bake bread to give out for charity. As I read the article I was wondering why there are not many articles on Dutch ovens on the blog. Anything that can be baked in a regular oven can be baked in a Dutch oven or cooked on a stove top for that matter. The way a Dutch oven works is 2/3 of the coals are on the top and 1/3 goes on the bottom. The lid has a lip that holds coals on top. They can also be stacked one on top of the other with the large on bottom smaller on top so a complete meal can be prepared all at once, also conserve fuel. Yeah you have to learn how to use one and yes there is a learning curve. Dutch ovens come in a large range of sizes from small desert size to 16 inch 12 quart behemoths. They use any fuel available and do not add a smokey flavor to the product being cooked. In fact when the wagon trains came west in the 1800s while crossing the prairie the only fuel available was Buffalo dung.

All that is needed to cook with a Dutch oven or spider skillet is a pair of leather gloves something to lift the lid with I like a pair of channel lock pliers a good size spoon, fork and spatula. I have an 1800s Spider skillet (a spider skillet differs from a Dutch oven in that it has a handle like a skillet, instead of a wire bale) that came west with my great great grand father. I rescued it from a storage shed and re-seasoned it. The re-seasoning differs from the seasoning in that the seasoning or rust or discolor is burned off in a fire. To season cover the cast-iron pan with oil and heat to 400 degrees for 3 hours and cook with the pan. The re-seasoning process takes three steps:

1.) To re-season cast iron first you need a fire, a rather large campfire works great, bury the skillet in the fire and let it burn till the fire goes out and the embers die, pull the skillet out of the dead embers and let it cool. Do not cool it with water, the skillet will crack or warp and be ruined.

2.) After the skillet or Dutch oven has cooled wash it in hot water and soap. Now the second step in re-seasoning the skillet or Dutch oven you need to use a fat or oil to cover the skillet (outside and inside) and then heat in an oven at 400 degrees for three or more hours I like to use a barbeque pit. I also like to apply the oil more than one time in the three hours. What happens is the pours of the cast iron open and the oil seals the metal. After three hours take the skillet out and let cool.

3.) The final step is to cook in the skillet/Dutch oven. Cornbread is the best food to season a skillet with. Mix up the cornbread, heat the skillet in the oven then add the fat to the skillet allow it to melt and spread it around and then pour in the cornbread batter.

If a Dutch oven is to be seasoned [while making cornbread, then] build a fire let it burn down to coals. Using a shovel scoop out a pile of coals smaller than the Dutch’s oven base, heat the Dutch oven over the coals place enough oil (a couple of ounce’s) in the Dutch oven and heat when oil is hot pour in cornbread, put the lid on the Dutch oven and add twice as much coals to the top as the bottom. It takes about 15 to 25 minutes to bake cornbread depending on the temperature of the oven after about at the mid point in coking spin the lid ¼ turn one direction and the base ¼ turn the other direction. This is to prevent hot spots. Your nose will tell you when you need to check to see if the cornbread is done, when you smell cornbread start checking when a tooth pick comes out clean the corn bread is ready take it out of the oven. It takes 3 or 4 pans of cornbread to finish seasoning a skillet well. Also frying a chicken also works. After awhile a nonstick surface develops on the skillet. The more a piece cast-iron cookware is cooked in the more it seasons. The trick is not to scrub hard when cleaning above all do not use a scouring pad or steel wool, hot water soap and at the most a spatula to clean a piece cast-iron cookware.

What to cook if you are in hurry or feeding a large group? A one pot/Dutch oven meal! Bean’s, stews or soup for that matter. After the main dish is done scoop coals out of the fire and in a pile and place the lid upside down on them makes sure the lid is level and cook what I like to call hoe cakes or corn pancakes. You can use cornbread mix batter or simple batter of water or milk and cornmeal and a small amount of salt and egg to bind. Cook them exactly like pancakes. Oil the lid and pour an amount of batter to make a cake about four inches across, wait for bubbles to form and flip and finish cooking and remove. With several Dutch ovens and a couple of experienced cooks a bunch of people can be feed!

OPSEC should be a big concern! Hungry people can panic and be extremely violent. Just look at the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Yes, I know that there was a lawless portion to that emergency. But all things considered I wonder how many of our big cities would fare better? What we need to take away from Hurricane Katrina is to prepare for the likelihood of violence. Food should be prepared away from large groups of people in need and carried to them. Beans, stews and soups can be prepared and poured into 5 gallon food grade buckets, which should be available. Also breads like Biscuits, cornbread, tortillas pack well for that matter in five gallon buckets. What I tentatively plan to do is locate a group living in a Hooverville or passersby. Observe the Hooverville for a minimum of three days. Using 6 person recon/security team and 3 person aid team locate a camp close but not to close to the Hooverville and set up my Dutch ovens. The camp should be setup 90 degrees to the prevailing wind from the camp to carry the smells and smoke away from the Hooverville. For example if the prevailing wind is north south then the aid camp would be either east or west of the Hooverville. Also charcoal produces little to no smoke and light compared to a wood fire. At a time determined by the security team prepare the food. Have the security team approach the camp and make contact with a few people. Set up a meeting place/time of the teams choosing. First feed the people you have contacted at a separate location and then set up a second meeting place. The security must use over watch at any meeting place and should have security at any camp. They should arrive at least 4 hours before the meeting time and establish an over watch position. The aid team should also have first aid training and include at least one EMT. If at any time it is deemed by the security team too dangerous the two teams pack up and leave. Having Dutch ovens and packs the teams can travel light and fast. Using mountain bikes the aid team could carry 200 lbs each. Say having a combat load of 50 lbs 25lbs of Dutch oven and cooking equipment that leaves 125 of food for a total of 375 lbs. That is feeding 250 meals. Using the security team to pack more food you could feed even more. Why bike? Does anyone remember Vietnam? The Vietcong carried considerable loads on bikes on the Ho Chi Minh trail. If the Hooverville is very large another 3 to 6 person team could be employed as packers to pack in supply’s using bikes. Also several teams could operate at the same time. Hopefully from several different retreats to spread the burden around and combine forces. Eventually the teams could employ the same concept of the Special Forces and train people in the camps to fend for themselves.

One last point any cast-iron pot can generally be saved I have saved several pieces that other people thought could not be saved and I picked most up for nothing or next to nothing. I like taking stuff that other people deem to be of no use and make it useful again.

Three Letters Re: Lessons Learned From an Ice Storm

Dear Editor:
With regards to the battery powered carbon monoxide (CO) detector, I just want to second that. When my family went through the Nov. 2007 ice storm that took out the power to half of Oklahoma, we were running off our generator for two days. The first night I put it outside, but close to the house to help shelter it from winds. Our CO detector went off in the middle of the night. We ended up having the fire department come out and check things. It was determined that the CO came in through either the dryer vent, which was close to where the generator was, or through the attic. Our home was built in the 1960s and has attic vents on the sides. We ended up moving the generator about 10 feet farther away from the house and didn’t have any problems after that.

We’ve also found that one of the plastic kid pools works well with some duct tape to provide a temporary shelter for a generator in case of rain. Thanks for running the site, it’s a wonderful resource. – Chad in Texas

 

James;
I really enjoyed reading “Lessons Learned from an Ice Storm”, by G. in the Zarks. I went through a similar experience when I first moved to the hills, and resolved to buy a generator so I wouldn’t lose all my perishables (not to mention my mind).

Connecting the generator to the home electrical system was easy enough: simply purchase a transfer switch or a “double throw switch” or a “break before make switch” to the tune of about $200 bucks at any contractor supply house. These handy devices are mechanical switches that route your generator power directly to your home electrical system, and physically separate this source of power from commercial power, thereby preventing the generator’s electricity from feeding back into the power company’s lines and injuring their linemen trying to restore the system after a power outage. Plus, you don’t have to worry about tripping over all those pesky extension cords running to your refrigerator or freezer or whatever.

Next, hire yourself a licensed electrician to install said switch. This cost me under $200, but this was over 10 years ago, so YMMV. Knowledgeable, experienced electricians able to do this work are common in the Ozarks, as many make their living installing transfer switches on chicken houses.

When I bought my generator, all I could afford was a 6,500 watt gasoline-powered screamer. I wish I could have bought something bigger and better (read: diesel), but just couldn’t come up with the bucks. Consequently, I am unable to power everything in my (unfortunately) all-electric house simultaneously. This necessitates careful load management. For example, I can run a couple of lights,my well pump and hot water heater at the same time, so hot showers are possible. Once showers are done, the well pump and water heater circuits are turned off and the refrigerator or freezer or what ever else needs doing are turned on.

Not the best situation, but until I can come up with the money to buy a larger generator, it sure beats sitting in the dark and cold praying the power comes back on soon. – L.H.

 

Mr. Rawles:
Re: The article “Lessons Learned From an Ice Storm, by G. in the Zarks” in the Friday, February 5th posts of SurvivalBlog, can I offer the some lessons I’ve learned in 40+ years as an Ozarker?

First, I listened and learned as much as I could from the fast-dwindling group of Ozark natives when I moved here. Second, I learned to watch the weather and know something about it. I didn’t waste my time with the media weather female meteorologists or guys outstanding in the rain. I looked at the weather maps, remembered my years of experience here, and the stories told me by those whose experience preceded arrival of power lines and pavement. About 8:00 the morning the big ice storm was to hit the Ozarks, I committed to not being here when it did. Experience told me I’d be iced in for some time and the come-latelys would be in the ditches or otherwise draining the resources of our overtaxed and under-staffed sheriff’s deputies, volunteer fire, and EMT crews.

It took me just two hours to load up and be on the road in my 16 year old conversion van, further converted to a self-sufficient home on wheels kept well stocked. That included preparing the house for what was ahead too. RV antifreeze in all drains and traps including washing machine and dishwasher, drain the water lines and shut off the electric water heater. Since the house is primarily heated by wood, two electrical strips were left on at low level to keep the inside above freezing. Six inch walls and a modest size make my house easy to keep above freezing and at adequate food storage levels, even in below zero times.

I called my sister-in-law, who lives a few miles away, and told her to drop by when conditions allowed to clean out the refrigerator as appropriate, and check for damage from trees in my 10-acres of hardwoods that surround and hide the house. She did, about a week later when the others who live down my road had cleared a path. The storm had given a war zone background to the beautiful mountains and valleys, but nothing hit either my house or two metal-clad outbuildings. A melted quart of ice cream was the worst clean-up problem.

I met the leading edge of the storm about 75 miles south of home, on the crest of our mountain range, where ice began appearing on the antennas on the van. I was out of danger on the flat land another 25 miles south and headed toward Texas via the shortest and fastest route. Once there and rested up after an overnight in a state Hospitality Center parking lot, I began a leisurely 30 days in the Lone Star State’s state parks and other favorite and cheaper Texas camping places. With middle seats removed, my van contains a bed, 40-quart chest-type Engel 12 and 120 volt refrigerator with efficient rotary compressor. I can cook on either microwave or propane stoves. There’s a Porta-potty tucked under the table holding the microwave, and food, water, coo ware and other
necessities in cabinets made from Sauder kit furniture units all bolted together and anchored to the mounts that held the middle van seats. Plastic storage units fit elsewhere for other supplies. Solar power panels, discreetly mounted inside the luggage rack on the roof to be invisible to any but someone climbing the van’s ladder, keep the refrigerator going through a deep cycle battery. The 190 watt solar system also powers a 750 watt modified sine wave 120 volt power supply that runs the microwave for limited cooking such as my 2-minute oblates, 60-second brown and wild rice and meals. The 120 volts can run the laptop computer’s TV module when TV stations are in range. Its own batteries handle e-mail. Some Texas State Parks are sources for free Internet hookups.

The van also is outfitted with three amateur radio and two scanner radios and antennas, to keep friends advised of my whereabouts beyond cell phone range or need, and keep me appraised of what is going on around and above me.

What I’ve learned from my resourceful and self-sustaining Ozark native friends is not to rush out and stock up after the first warning from the Weather Channel but to be ready to adapt to what ever may be coming, and to know if and when it is coming by experience, monitoring the real news sources of public service and other early warning media.

“Lessons learned from an ice storm?” Really be prepared. Prepared in priority. Power outages, winter storms and summer tornadoes or hurricanes, New Madrid acting up, heat, cold, rain or snow; I can ride them out or bug out in hours or less. Financial collapse, civil unrest, madness spawning something else; look for me gone in these less-likely but slower moving crises. I’ll be out there somewhere, identifiable from the next vehicle only by license plate, if you happen to come upon me camping or rolling down some highway or back road. – Vern M.

Economics and Investing:

SurvivalBlog’s Editor At Large Michael Z. Williamson flagged this:mentioned this at Market Ticker: Derivative Fraud? Where Are OUR Cops?

GG flagged this: What Every American Should Know About the National Debt

Also from GG: Evercore CEO Altman: Obama’s Deficit Will Cause An International Currency Crisis In The Next Two Years

Tim R. was the first of several readers to send this: It is Now Mathematically Impossible to Pay Off the U.S. National Debt

Items from The Economatrix:

Mortgage Rates Edge Up Slightly

Moody’s Warns US of Credit Rating Fears

Sovereign Debt Fears Rattle Investors

Greek Debt Woes Spread to Portugal, Spain

Shell To Axe 1,000 More Jobs

January Unemployment Rate Drops to 9.7%. JWR’s Comment: Sure it did…

Middle Class No More, Families Struggle to Fight Off Homelessness

The Bankruptcy of the US is Now Certain

Odds ‘n Sods:

Steve K. sent us this link: Snowpocalypse 2010: Everybody Panic!

   o o o

Mark O. sent us an article that has both libertarian and OPSEC ramifications. Is That A Castle You’re Hiding Behind That Haystack? Perhaps Mr. Fidler should have moved to one of the many states in the western US where no building permits are required, and there is no mandatory building code. (except inside city limits, by some local ordinances).

   o o o

A reader recommended getting a copy of the Pocket Ref, by Thomas J. Glover. One reviewer described it as: “… part encyclopedia, part trivia tome, part entertainment and part dispute-solver. Buried in the various tables and charts are tons of data and facts to aid the rider, roadside mechanic or budding MacGyver.”

   o o o

 KT sent us a link to The Virtual Turnpike–a site that offers ground-level photographs of house, with n almost frightening level of detail.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Woe unto them that decree unrighteous decrees, and that write grievousness [which] they have prescribed;
To turn aside the needy from judgment, and to take away the right from the poor of my people, that widows may be their prey, and [that] they may rob the fatherless!
And what will ye do in the day of visitation, and in the desolation [which] shall come from far? to whom will ye flee for help? and where will ye leave your glory?
Without me they shall bow down under the prisoners, and they shall fall under the slain. For all this his anger is not turned away, but his hand [is] stretched out still." – Isaiah 10:1-4

Notes from JWR:

In recognition of his many months of faithful service in finding links to relevant news articles for SurvivalBlog, George Gordon (“GG”) has been given a place on the SurvivalBlog masthead. Like our other volunteer editors, he will be in it just for the glory, and perhaps the occasional free book or two. George Gordon is the nom de plume of an American businessman who closely follows economic developments and hence says that he “is getting more and more worried.” His pen name is is an homage to George Gordon Lord Byron, the British poet who was famously described as “Mad, bad, and dangerous to know.” Welcome aboard, GG!

—

Today we present another entry for Round 27 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 27 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

The “Power of Ten” Planning Model, by Sandkicker

This article has nothing to do with any special properties of the number ten, but rather refers to a progressive planning method based on the size of a problem. This is a way to organize thinking and planning for chaotic situations.  

“If you fail to plan, you’ve planned to fail”.   It would be irresponsible to present any particular plan as suitable for everyone, however, these are some guidelines on how and why you should develop your own plans.  Why do I have the nerve to write this piece?   I’ve been in the middle of more than one “adventure”… and in only one of them did I have any preplanned resources.  I’ve been thinking and planning about survival issues for decades.

SHTF or TEOTWAWKI can mean different things at different times.  While many web sites focus on total breakdowns, the fact is that for any given person walking across the street without looking both ways and being killed by a truck, it’s the same as the whole planet getting smacked by a 50 mile wide asteroid.  The focus of the “Power of Ten” is based on the premise that almost everyone has sudden small emergencies. Preparation for small emergencies as a part of a larger overall plan is a useful approach, because a small one day emergency can stretch out to many days.  Those who are prepared have the chance at survival    

Consider some small emergencies: Imagine losing electric power for four hours. Depending on individual circumstances, this can be an annoyance, up to a catastrophe. Suppose power goes out for four days. Again, depending on weather and climate, this can become a much bigger problem.  My daughter and her husband live in deep New England. Last winter their power went out for days.   No heat, frozen pipes – and even though they were able to get a generator, they had to spend a good bit of time on the phone with me to figure out how to connect it. Do you have a generator? Do you know how to safely hook it up? Do you know why it might not be a good idea to power up your whole house and light it like a Christmas tree? Do you know how to hook up even a small generator to keep just your vital services going?  Will your existing plan for a SHTF situation have any elements in it to help if the power goes out during a 2 day ice storm?

Enough examples, so let’s get to the point.

Every one needs a plan, a realistic plan.  If the plan isn’t written down and everyone who is to participate in that plan does not understand it and their clearly defined roles in the plan, then you don’t have a plan!  The facts are that, “No plan survives its first touch with reality” and “You can’t plan for everything”.  But you can -and must- start to plan with everyone in your household included.

No plan can cover all eventualities when first written, or ever for that matter.  GOOD plans are written to reflect one’s understanding of what they are trying to accomplish with what resources they have at any one time.  GOOD plans are read, reviewed and revised as necessary.  The best plans cover a range of problems.  They contain bits and pieces that help with small, large and huge problems and for scenarios never anticipated. Hence the title of this piece.

Here is where the “power of 10” can help you to get organized. Plan for… 1 day, 10 days, 100 days, 1,000 days….(and gulp)…10,000 days.  You cannot get to day 10 if you don’t survive day 1 and not to day 100 unless you survive day 10.

I am a firm believer in modular planning,  The plan to survive 10,000 days (Yes, 27+ years) is made of elements that one uses to survive 1, 10 and 100 days… after all, on Day 1, there isn’t going to be an announcement saying.. “This event will be over in…” that you can believe anyway!   I believe that it is totally foolish to start one’s planning with “How am I going to survive a total collapse”.   Start with a 1 day plan for each season and for different events, then work towards the 10 day plan, again for each season and for different events. Doing this will help you build that 1,000 or 10,000 day plan more effectively.  You should already have handy what you need for the “one day plan”, if not, get it, then work towards the 10 day plan. When you have that plan written and reviewed, it’s time to start implementing.  Buy what you need and set it aside so it can be used.  Talk to the whole family about the plan.  Include everyone – kids, old folks, and don’t overlook pets.

As an example, I live in a coastal community on the eastern seaboard.  My one day plans are one set of plans, my 10 day plans another…and my 10 day plan will vary depending on what I’m planning for.  A winter ice storm that kills power is one plan, and evacuating in the event of a hurricane, quite another.  Folks talk about are they going to be “Bugging In” or “Bugging Out”.  When asked which you will do, the only correct answer should be, “It Depends!”  You need to be ready for the unexpected.  How do you do that?   Think independence, dependence on nothing other than what you have in hand. When talking to a friend about this essay, they said, “One day plan, who needs one?”.  Who?  Me, you, everyone!  I’ve been traveling worldwide for business on and off since the days of the Boeing 707s.  My rule after my first flight:  always have in hand what you need for at least 24 hours without outside help when you leave for the airport. More than once over the years, this policy has made my life immensely easier and more comfortable. Additionally, planning and acting on a day to day basis for emergencies, instantiates a “survival mentality” that realistically, we need to be in constantly.  Most often, emergencies do not come with warnings ahead of time.

I firmly believe that the minimum plan one should have thought through, written out, and implemented is the 10 day plan… for both “bug-in” and “bugout”.  And on the subject of “bugging out”: One needs to have different destinations for different scenarios.  There are a pair or scenarios that I’ve planned for where we bug out to my brother’s home well north of me and a scenario where he comes here.

As to getting from here to there… as mentioned above I live in a coastal community.  On summer weekends, 90 min trips from “the city” can take four hours in good weather.  If it got to be “bugout” time for us, the last piece of road I’ll be driving on will be the local superhighway. I’m sure if most of you think about it, that nice bit of superhighway that’s your first thought for any trip won’t be viable.    Plan your routes, and your secondary route and if you are fortunate enough… a third route. Try not to depend on the Interstates.  Don’t plan to use that great GPS navigation box in your car.  The GPS system is managed by the government.  It can and has been shut down in the past by the government when they thought they had a need.  Get good paper maps. Mark routes.  As to the Interstates, the legislation that funded them states that the Government can restrict use of the Interstates to military use only as needed.

Okay… you should work towards having plans as follows:

1 and 10 Day:

 

Weather Related

Infrastructure

Civil Breakdown

Winter

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Spring

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Summer

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Fall

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

Bug in/out

This does not mean that you need 24 plans… In your individual situation, you probably will only need 2 or 3 bug-in and bug out plans that you can use/reuse/equip/stock as modules.  And for all bugout scenarios, plan what you will do if you end up on foot.

Beyond 10 days to 100 days and beyond…

Now things get more difficult.  You can stock up on 6 months or a year of “survival food” which may work out, if you and that food all get to be in the same place. Is your Bug-Out Vehicle a diesel powered International Harvester all-wheel drive 26 foot truck?  How about stocking six months or a year of required medications?  Or six months or a year’s worth of fuel?

Frankly, somewhere between 10 and 100 days is where the (first) big crunch will happen. I’ve heard some say… “Oh, I’ve got my retreat in western “Pennsyltucky” all stocked up!” Yes, you can do that, and that could be your plan, however, I suggest that if all you are going to do is move your kith and kin to a isolated place in the “wherever”, and sit on and eat off your stockpile without having any skills related to the current situation to contribute to the community, you will become a foraging opportunity.  Plan on bringing “value” to whatever community you will be moving into (i.e., hedge fund managers without any other skills, need not apply).  No matter what you bring or have stockpiled, if you don’t have useful skills to bring to the community appropriate to the situation, you will just become a burden to that infrastructure -which is likely to need help not an additional burden.  BTW, being a good shot and well armed is necessary, but not sufficient in my context.

I don’t have any guidelines to share for these very long range plans other than the speculation that beyond 100 days, either our military will be moving in and trying to bring order, or… someone else’s military will (barring an extinction event asteroid),   as one of our “creditors” may decide to “foreclose” to “protect their interests”, or for “humanitarian interests” .   When the military moves in, I suspect that those whose plans started with:  “ my 12 gauge, my AK and my 9mm and 1,000 rounds for each” and ended with a backpack or pickup truck full of food and a plan to high tail it into the woods somewhere, will either be waiting for a burial detail to get to them, or run the risk of being hunted like vermin.

To sum it up…Create a written plan.  Address specific scenarios. (note plural).  Review and discuss plans with those who will be included in them. Change (improve) them as events and resources will allow.  Plans need to be practiced.  Plans should include action/role sheets for everyone, especially for an emergency bugout.  As a small example: last week, my wife and I went to the local range.  I very much wanted to bring my spotting scope as we were firing an iron sighted 22 LR bolt action rifle among other things and I needed it to see shots in the black at 25 yards.  When we unloaded at the range, no spotting scope!   I’d left it home.

Your plans, or even the existence of them, probably should not be topics of conversations at back yard barbeques as there is always at least one “opportunist” at one.  Get to know your neighbors, to see if they could be depended on for mutual aid. You don’t have to like them, but you may need to trust them.  That crusty grump up the street may very well have skills and experience that could be handy.  Running off into the sunset, or the hills, or turning your home/farm/retreat in the boonies into an armed bunker is not a plan… it’s the survivalist fairy tale.  Only those who plan are the ones who may have the chance to live happily ever after.

Two Letters Re: Lessons Learned from the Oklahoma Ice Storm of 2010

Dear Editor:
The Oklahoma Ice Storm of 2010 is now melting away and as usual there were lessons learned.   Many of these should have been “known” before but we are never as prepared as we should be.  In that vein I am going to rehash several things that went right, a few that went wrong, and others that we can improve on the next time that “life as usual” is not.

First, the setting: I live in Southwestern Oklahoma and have been here for almost three years.  About January 22nd we started getting word of an impending ice/snow storm scheduled to hit on about January 28th.  As the storm came together we received updates that refined the details.  The reports of January 27th were remarkably accurate to what we would receive as well as the specific times that each type of precipitation would start to fall.

In our town it started to rain at about 7 a.m. on January 28th.   As the temperature dropped that rain froze on metal objects, then on trees and plants, and finally on roads.  At approximately 3 p.m. the rain changed over to sleet and ice pellets and by 9 p.m. we were getting snow.  Unfortunately an inch+ of ice and two inches of sleet/ ice had already destroyed many trees and power lines (both the small distribution lines in town and the major transmission lines into town) were down.
 
Electricity went out about 11 a.m. and was restored by 3 p.m.  It went out again at 4 p.m. and would remain off at our house for the next six days.  This power outage was universal for every house in town and every town within a 30 mile radius.  I should mention that throughout the storm we had full water, sewer, and natural gas service.  There was concern at one point that the sewers would back up, (the sewer lagoons are at an elevation where the sewage has to be pumped to them) and those concerns brought about the possibility of the city turning off the water to prevent sewer backup but power was restored before this eventuality.

Second, the good news list.  Now that we are settled into what we hope is our last home, we keep on hand sufficient food to last for approximately six months.  With reasonable rationing we could go even longer.  We have a good rotation system and keep on hand about four months worth of food that we eat every day and two months worth of emergency type rations.

We enjoy camping and backpacking and have all the equipment to do both activities year round and be comfortable.  This includes lighter weight stoves, packs, tents and sleeping bags and water purifiers to campsite sized Coleman cook stoves, lanterns, Dutch ovens, tents, cots and heavy sleeping bags.  While most of this equipment was not used it was comforting to know that if the situation continued to deteriorate, that we could adapt.

We bought a standard frame house with brick veneer when we moved to Oklahoma which is approximately 35 years old.  We haven’t spent money on kitchen, bathroom or carpet upgrades but we have put 20 inches of blown insulation throughout (to include over the garage and the porches) and we replaced all of the original double pane aluminum frame windows with energy efficient vinyl frame windows.  Realizing that it is possible to do better, we were still pleased that during one seventeen hour period without any heat source in the house, outside temperatures from 17 to 26 degrees, and 20 mph winds, the temperature in the house only dropped five degrees from 67 to 62.

The house has two hot water heaters-one electric that services two bathrooms and one natural gas that services the kitchen and laundry room.  It was very easy to take hot water to the bathtubs and perform personal hygiene.  Showers were courtesy of the two gallon watering bucket that my wife uses to keep the sun room flowers fresh.

The regular phone system remained operational throughout the storm and recovery period.  However, folks that only had cordless phone systems could not access the lines.  In some cases phones with integrated answering systems could dial out but the phones would not ring if the ringer depended on plug in electricity.  We have one of the old style rotary phones that works perfectly on the telephone line current and were able to send and receive calls.

We topped off all the vehicles and gas cans a couple of days before the storm.  I anticipated trouble getting more fuel trucks to town.  What I did not think about was the gas station could not pump gas without electricity anyway.  Ultimately one old fashioned gas station in town hooked up a generator and could run receipts in his office.  Credit cards did not work so cash or an established charge account with the owner was the way to do business.
 
Third, what we can do better.  We have a lot of candles.  I have not done an inventory but there are boxes of them.  We discovered that candles that are about an inch in diameter are optimal.  Larger candles, 2-1/2 to 4 inches burn down in the center and leave a candle rim that blocks light. Ultimately they just shine a small circle of light on the ceiling.  We also learned that the best candles put out very little light.  We have a couple of antique oil lamps but they are for decoration and did not have wicks in them.  We are going to acquire more oil lamps, maintain them, and keep sufficient oil on hand for 4-to-6 months.

In the brain dead category we have Coleman stoves and lamps that are dual fuel.  Unfortunately I gave all of our Coleman fuel to the Boy Scouts so we failed in “Being Prepared”.  We shifted to our propane stoves.  I need to point out that these stoves should not be used indoors.  We cooked outside on the patio.  When we do get around to remodeling the kitchen I am going to replace the stove top with a gas appliance.  While we did not bake, we did have the capability by placing a Dutch oven on the propane stove.

In the final analysis we look at the Oklahoma Ice Storm of 2010 as being the most lavish camping trip that we have ever been on.  We never felt as though there were any true hardships and after the initial storm period we spent a lot of time outdoors enjoying the snow and volunteering at the local Red Cross warming/feeding center doing whatever was asked of us.  We look forward to implementing a few changes and the next opportunity to test our preparedness.

Hello!
I am new to reading your blog and love it! I wanted to comment on the ice storm post. I live in Oklahoma so we know all about these ice storms. I started reading a lot of blogs on prepping and storing food during the holidays. I decided to make a menu and strict food budget so I could afford to buy extra food for long-term storage. I bought a month’s worth of food this January. I also bought my first water storage container – a 7 gallon Aqua-Tainer from Wal-Mart. Last year, I had a gas heater mounted on my dining room wall, preparing myself for the next inevitable ice storm. A few days before the storm, I bought emergency candles and I am so glad I did! We didn’t lose power (thankfully!), but our little town was cleaned out of generators, candles, Coleman stoves, propane, kerosene….everything. I went to Wal-Mart a few days later (when power was still out all over the county) and the shelves were completely empty in some areas. That was a wake-up call to me. In just a few short days, stores can be emptied. It is wise to not wait until the last minute. I am a single mom and a teacher and I know how difficult it is to come up with extra money to help become better prepared. I am doing a little each month and will sleep soundly knowing that my kids will be warm and fed if anything happens. By the way, the ice storm hit seven days ago and people are still without power.

Thanks for the wonderful blog and such useful information! – Kay in Oklahoma

Economics and Investing:

There has been a veritable torrent of bad economic news in the past few days. Here is just a sampling…

Ponzi Scheme: The Federal Reserve Bought Approximately 80 Percent Of U.S. Treasury Securities Issued In 2009. (Thanks to Duane for the link.)

George Gordon (“GG”) sent this: 20 Reasons Global Debt Time Bomb Explodes Soon

Also from GG: Sprott: Gold to gain 30% in 2010, higher interest rates to hurt US economy

and another from GG: Fears of ‘Lehman-style’ tsunami as crisis hits Spain and Portugal

Chad S. forwarded this: North Korea’s economic moves bring new misery

John G. liked this piece over at Zero Hedge: The Next Leg Of The Housing Crisis In Five Simple Charts

Items from The Economatrix:

Stocks Sink in on Economy Jitters; Dow Below 9,900

Companies Boost Productivity and Put Off Hiring

Bond Yields Tumble on Latest European Debt Worries

Stocks, Commodities Plunge as Dollar Gains

Retailers Likely to Close More US Stores

Odds ‘n Sods:

Please stop! Some well-intentioned (but naive) folks are forwarding the e-mail titled “See with your own eyes Nephilim” with several Photoshop-doctored pictures of supposed skeletal remains of 16-foot tall humanoids. Here is a link to one of the original photos that they doctored. Again, please stop forwarding this fakery!

   o o o

Kurt B. sent this: Nuclear missile threats to U.S. mount; Report warns of Pyongyang’s aims

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Chad S. spotted another piece from Nanny State Britannia: Cheers! Brits toast new shatterproof pint glass. Chad Adds: “Note that this was developed by the British Government, not private industry.”