Economics and Investing:

From GG: How Goldman Sachs Helped Greece to Mask its True Debt

Tom W. wrote to mention that he liked a Real Clear Politics piece titled Big Government’s Big Shortfall.

Items from The Economatrix:

Stocks Up After EU Pledges Support for Greece

Moral Support, But No Money, EU Says to Greece

Oil Up for Fourth Day on Strong International Demand Outlook

The Fed’s “Exit Plan” is Just Another Secret Gift to Wall Street

Jason Kelly Reviews the US and European Economies

Banking and Housing Payments Devoured Middle Class Income

Stocks Fall as Bernanke Points to End of Stimulus

Trade Deficit Jumps Sharply in December

Consumers Spent Modestly in January

Oil Nears $74 as Weak Dollar Offsets High Supplies

EU Officials Wrangle Over Possible Greece Rescue

Greek Bailout Looking Increasingly Likely

British Airways Credit Downgraded by S&P

Think PIGS are in Trouble? These Seven US States Could be Headed for Something Worse



Odds ‘n Sods:

Karen H. forwarded this news item: High sugar prices will soon hit bakeries. Here at SurvivalBlog, we warned you about this as far back as May of 2009. Stock up. (But preferably with more healthy natural sweeteners like honey and stevia.)

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Bruce T. spotted this in Popular Science magazine: New Armored Wall System Assembles Like Legos, Could Replace Sandbags in Afghanistan. Somehow, I doubt that these Big Boy Legos will ever see much use outside of “Green Zone” roadblock set-ups. Let’s face it: Empty sandbags are cheap, and they fit in a backpack. It is safe to predict that sandbags will still be used for a few more centuries. They’ll just start making them from Kevlar, or goat milk spider silk, or somesuch.

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The BBC report: GPS to suffer from awakening sun; As the Sun exits its period of solar activity and the numbers of flares increase, users of sat-nav technology will face errors and outages. (A hat tip to Mac The Gadget Guy, for the link.)

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Don W. sent us an article to file under: Big City OPSEC: Police: Man with weapons cache was preparing for ‘Armageddon’. (This comes from Massachusetts, the birthplace of the American Revolution. My, how times change, and how attitudes differ, regionally. Here in the Unnamed Western State, the sheriff’s deputies would just say : “Nice gun collection”, and “Gee, what a great place to do some pistol practice, when its snowing.” (Or, if inside city limits, they’d probably just issue a stern warning.) Here is William Norman Grigg’s insightful take on this, posted over at the Lew Rockwell blog: Paramilitary Thugs Steal Private Arms Collection.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“As things get worse the next time around, there is going to be violence. When the people realize A.) that what the government has done has been wrong, B.) it hasn’t solved the problem, C.) it has made the problems worse, you are going to see people unhappy, you are going to see social unrest, you are going to see violence, and you will probably see some more governments toppled–no question about that. That may sound like a radical statement; it’s just the way the world has always worked.” – Veteran investment guru Jim Rogers, February, 2010



Letter Re: Post-Collapse Charity OPSEC

James Wesley:
A buddy of mine and I were talking about giving out food in a post-collapse world and it occurred to us what we give out could have an impact on your operational security (OPSEC). Unless you come upon the refugees in the middle of your garden, then they’ll probably think (unless you tell them or give them reason to believe otherwise) that you are in much the same situation that they are in. The type of food you give charitably could be a message in and of itself.

Give them store-bought food standard-form (processed food that can be picked up at a regular grocery store, in #2.5 size cans) and that tells them “I have some food”

Give them store-bought food in bulk-form (#10 cans, bags of rice, grain or any of the such) and that tells them “I have a prepared stockpile of food”

Give them standard garden-fresh vegetables (carrots, lettuce, the “salad foods”) tells them “I have a small source of food”

Give them orchard-grade foods (apples, pomegranates, anything that comes from high-maintenance plants or old-growth plants, or fresh meats other than perhaps deer or common game) says “I have a large and capable food supply”

In the large scheme of things it may be more of an afterthought, but it would be one less thing to draw attention to your group. In my heart I want to help as many people as I can however I can, but my primary responsibility is my family and any others under my care. If people know you have a large source of diverse foodstuffs it makes you an all the more tempting target. Take care, – WPK

JWR Replies: As I’ve mentioned before in SurvivalBlog. in the event of a societal collapse, I plan to distribute charity anonymously, through a third party: my local church. I believe in “giving until it hurts”, but not in getting oneself hurt while trying to give.



Letter Re: My Experience in Setting Up a Community Survival Group

Jim,
In these uncertain times many of us are preparing, some for economic collapse others for a coming pandemic or EMP strike, either natural or man made. Not having the option of relocating to a more ideal area my wife and I decided a few months ago to try to stack the odds in our favor by going a little different route. We have been able to partner with other local families and friends to be each others back-up and support systems. We initially started with just three families (6 of us total) and thru careful vetting and many meetings we have now grown to almost 16 families totaling about 40 people. All of these families have demonstrated a commitment to the group and are either past preppers (Y2K) or those that really “get it”. We have been able to find just about every talent we think we may need with the exception of a physician. However, we do have a well-experienced emergency room nurse and a veterinarian.

Realizing that we are not in the best of positions we have been to each others homes and properties and have done what we believe are honest assessments of the strengths and weaknesses of each location. We have looked at location and surrounding areas, water availability, defensibility, lines of approach and egress, construction, heating and alternative energy methods, land available to till and plant. We have found that about half of the locations are too small or are too vulnerable to be of much use so those families will automatically be bunking in with others when the need comes as well as storing their supplies with those families now. As a group we have tried to identify and define what triggers we will use to implement our plans. In the case of a long slow slide to economic collapse we will have some time to sit back and monitor the situation, in the case of something major we have plans for our group to divide into three different locations in our township. We feel that this will give us the ability to not only support each other but will give us fall back positions to go to in the event we are forced out of one particular area.

This has not been an easy venture. We have had some people who would like to join that had personalities that just didn’t fit well with the rest of the group. Some people were just too radical, some lazy and argumentative, some wanted the comfort of a backup without being willing to contribute anything to the group, let alone for their own welfare. We have found that group dinners and work days have not only strengthened our bond with each other but has led to some real friendships that we may not have been able to forge. Easy, no, but worthwhile, yes. While we may not be in the best of locations we have through hard work put together a group of people and the synergy that comes along with it. One family alone in this area has no chance, but us, I think we have a fighting change of getting through the times ahead.

Thanks for all you do. K. J., – Somewhere in Ohio



Letter Re: Combination Guns for Hunting?

Jim,
In reading your article on choosing survival guns I noticed that you have a Savage Model 24F listed. Do you have any experience or opinions on the Valmet 412 ST, with barrels for 12 gauge and .30-06? I want to buy one but did not know if it would be a good choice for putting on the list for survival guns. Thank you ,- John

JWR Replies: Combination guns are quite useful for areas where you have the opportunity to do both big game and bird hunting on the same hunt. There is many a time that I’ve been out on a deer or elk hunt and wished that I had a pistol or shotgun with me to hunt grouse, especially when I’ve been walking back to my truck, late in the morning. At lest that way I wouldn’t have gone home empty -handed.

Combination guns are of course not the best guns for self-defense. But if combination guns are the approach you want to take for hunting and garden pest shooting, then the Valmet 412 is the “Cadillac” choice. Just keep in mind that for the same cost of buying one Valmet you could buy two Savage 24s–providing a wider range of calibers. For example, you could have one that is chambered .22 LR over 20 gauge, and another that is .223 over 12 gauge.



Letter Re: A Shortage of Mantles for Aladdin Kerosene Lamps

Dear Jim,
I was trying to buy an Aladdin Loxon Mantle #R-150 for my Aladdin kerosene lamp and found that all suppliers seemed to be out of stock. Even Lehman’s Hardware here in Ohio was out of stock and showing an April delivery. I spent some time searching and found some very expensive ones on eBay but that was all. I then did a search for “Aladdin mantle problems” and found a cached press release from the Aladdin company. It looks like we have a major problem for Aladdin Lamp owners. From a loyal reader, – Jay H.

JWR Replies: Hopefully this situation will be resolved soon. An aside: My parents thought that I was going overboard, when I bought three spare Aladdin wicks and a dozen spare mantles, back in 1979. In those days, an Aladdin lamp cost around $60, and spare mantles were less than $2 each. I still have a few mantles remaining from that first batch. As with most of my other Alpha Strategy tangible investments, items bought early on and stored properly have proven to be better that money in the bank!



Letter Re: How I Made My iPhone a Useful Survival Reference

James,
I depend on your invaluable books and Blog daily. I wanted to share with you and your readers my Archives Library system for when SHTF.

I have an iPhone 3Gs ( and a spare one ). I feel that this is a more readily accessible and portable device as compared to a Kindle. I have loaded with many useful applications (“apps”) for survival and references. The main apps are :

Carpenters Helper

Photo Album and iTunes (for family viewing of pictures and my DVD collection DVDs ripped at 700Kbps VBR 2 pass h.264 is pretty good and saves on space)
MotionX GPS 9.4 and more importantly the now localized maps for it. (This is for once cell phone networks are non-functional.)
Morse Decoder and Encoder (for semi-secure transmission… just increase the WPM count, the put the iphone next to the receiver and type your text and it will send our tones, at the other end you do the same with the decoder tool
Bible Reader4 – allows you to read the entire Bible offline

Most importantly, I use Evernote which is my central library for all my other reference content, from clipped content to the web, to PDF books and all my scanned household legal documents. Evernote can sync content between multiple clients to the web but nonetheless have it localized on all hosts (that means I populate evernote from my laptop, it’s replicated to their hosting site and then sync’ed to my iPhone). Note that Evernote is available for PC, Mac/iPhone, Blackberry and WindowsCE.

Interestingly, I have downloaded all the pertinent blogs and web sites of importance to it for my portable reference guides using Site Sucker and other similar apps (Note for blogs where you don’t care for the images, just download the HTML files)

I use a SOLIO for photovoltaically charging my phone

Finally I have both a Otterbox Defender Case (for day to day work) and a Otterbox Armor for when I am transporting it in heavy rain or over water.

God Bless, – LC



Letter Re: Practical Substitutes for Anvils

Dear JWR:

In article in the February 9th edition of SurvivalBlog, author JIR wrote: “There is no substitute for a good anvil. The bigger it is, the more stable it is and the more enjoyable it is to work with. But, if you need to, you can get by with using almost any heavy chunk of steel or even a big rock. My first anvil was a 16 pound sledgehammer head and it worked pretty well.”

The following three links offer descriptions and some thoughts regarding the construction of anvils from short sections of former railroad rail. Though not as suitable as a purpose-built anvil, they’ll do as a field-expedient substitute, either until something better can be obtained or arranged, or as a spare or secondary backup anvil to a ‘smith’s real workday unit.

I hope this info is of use to other potential anvil beaters! – George S.



Economics and Investing:

A link sent by SurvivalBlog’s Poet Laureate George Gordon (“GG”): Why Sovereign Debt Pain Has Only Just Started

Also from GG come this big red flag article: Greece ‘Dress Rehearsal’ for U.S. and U.K., Deutsche Bank Says

Sent by Trent: Britain faces ‘oil crunch’ within five years, Richard Branson warns

Forget The Mortgage, I’m Paying My Credit Card First! (Thanks to Coyote in northern Michigan, for the link.)

Items from The Economatrix:

Greece’s Financial Crisis Puts Future of Euro in Question

Super-wealthy Investors Move Billions Out of Greece

World Bankers Meet in Sydney as Recovery Fears Intensify

Bank Failures to Keep Rising in 2010

Obama Says Economy Turning Corner to Growth (“Turning at warp nothing, Captain.”)

Seven US States that are Worse Off than Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and Spain

UK: Thousands to Lose Jobs as Universities Prepare to Cope with Cuts

Will We Ever Trust Wall Street Again?

Greek Ouzo Crisis Escalates into Global Margin Call as Confidence Ebbs



Odds ‘n Sods:

There are just two days left in the 25% off sale at SafeCastle on all Mountain House foods in #10 cans is in progress. They are offering free shipping to the 48 continental states! The sale ends on February 13th, so order soon!

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“Hokie” sent us this: High demand for road salt prompts rationing in Maryland and Virginia

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Just one week remains in Directive 21’s sale on the Royal Berkey water filters. Presently just $262.50, the price will revert to $275, on the 18th of February.

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More about the USDA’s plans replace the NAIS plan, posted over at the Truth Farmer blog: Easter Bunny Reports “NAIS is Dead!!!!”





Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 27 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.), and D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Luger, 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo. This is a $249 value.

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 27 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Updating the Ancient Art of Caching, by C.W.B.

It was the summer of 1985 and I was deep in the rain forest near the ruins of the ancient city of Tikal in Guatemala. Talking over the cries of howler monkeys, the guide showed us a small cave that had been uncovered on the side of the road. He told us this was one of many caches archeologists had found around the outskirts of the crumbling city. Some had contained only empty containers, and some had been full of grain and other food items. Could some of the citizens of Tikal, preparing for what they saw as the inevitable collapse of their civilization, been preparing by caching supplies around their doomed city? Whether they did or didn’t the fact remains that caching can be an extremely effective survival tool. It is my understanding that the Apache Indians had several caches in the Guadalupe Mountains and elsewhere when fighting U.S. Cavalry units at the end of the last century. Caching allows you to spread out supplies so if any one area is hit, you have a fallback position and have not lost all of your resources. However, caches have other benefits as well. In finding and placing caches you learn your area inside and out. You can also learn how to navigate with or without a map and compass. In short it is good preparation and teaches you good skills.

I live in a small town in Central Texas (we call it “The Hill Country”) near a large river. I live in an average suburban house. As a teacher I cannot afford to pay for the perfect retreat. I can only do my best to prepare for the worst right where I am. However, I know I can hedge my bets by getting to know my area of operations as best I can before disaster strikes. In so doing, I can also place caches of supplies and have fallback camps if my home becomes endangered. The best way I have found to do this is through the modern art of geocaching.
Geocaching is aptly described on the web site www.geocaching.com as follows:

“Geocaching is a high-tech treasure hunting game played throughout the world by adventure seekers equipped with GPS devices. The basic idea is to locate hidden containers, called geocaches, outdoors and then share your experiences online.
Geocaching is enjoyed by people from all age groups, with a strong sense of community and support for the environment.”

And that same web site is probably the best place to get started in your geocaching adventures. Geocaching is a great way to learn your area. It will also train you to effectively place and find caches around your area of operations. It does, however, depend on a high tech (global positioning system (GPS) network and satellites that may be susceptible to destruction or an electromagnetic pulse. Therefore, after learning with a GPS you may want to start using map, compass, and landmarks to locate caches. A great book and a true classic on orienteering is “Be Expert with Map and Compass: The Complete Orienteering Handbook” by Bjorn Kjellstrom.

I could go into all these skills but you really just need to explore the resources mentioned above and practice, practice, practice! What I want to spend the rest of this article on is where to cache, how to cache, and what to cache. Although caches can and are placed in the middle of cities, I prefer placing mine on public lands with heavy cover or on my own property. I also have permission from friends to place caches on their property. This avoids potential conflicts with law enforcement; the discovery by “muggles” (non-geocaching folk); and respects the rights of private landowners.

Containers should be watertight and a color that matches the landscape. I like using ammo cans. I wrap the seal with camo duck tape and add additional protection by placing my items in Tupperware or sealing them in vacuum bags. That way, if the can is penetrated by water, my items are still safe and sound. For this article, I recently went back to Houston where I placed an above ground cache along Buffalo Bayou right before Hurricane Katrina. The ammo can was still intact and everything inside looked just like it did when I placed it. I then took the opportunity to cache it in my new area of operations. Keeping caches small and portable is a big advantage!

What you put in your cache really depends on what you anticipate your needs will be. I usually place food, emergency blankets, water, and water purification systems in my caches. I have found that the Katadyn water filter systems have held up the best on my backpacking trips. A cheaper and smaller alternative is water purification tablets or straws. A good collapsible water container is also a must. Those new water purifier bottles make a good addition to any cache or G.O.O.D. pack. Make sure to write down any expiration dates on food, water, glow sticks, etc. on your cache location sheets and rotate out items as needed.

Another good choice for your cache is non perishable medical supplies such as bandages. But until the Schumer hits the fan, you should not cache anything that could be considered the least bit dangerous such as firearms or ammunition unless it is on your own property. Even then, you may want to break firearms down and cache the pieces in different locations. Boxes of ammunition store great if vacuum sealed. I don’t even presently cache fire starting materials for the sake of safety, although I sure keep them ready in my G.O.O.D. bag.
One thing geocachers don’t do but preppercachers (my own term) can do is bury your booty. This makes it almost impossible for others to find. If you do this make sure to camouflage your dig site well with natural materials until time and rain make things less obvious. Also, make sure to record your cache locations on paper. I keep a coded list of my locations in my wallet, another in my G.O.O.D. bag, and yet another in my gun safe at home. A cache is worthless if you cannot find it again. I also visit my caches once in a while to make sure I can find them and that they are still intact. Because I do this I can usually locate my caches without a GPS receiver or map and compass. I simply navigate using landmarks. A great book on landmark navigation is “Finding Your Way Without Map or Compas”sby Harold Gatty. Once again, make sure you write expiration dates on your list. That way you can rotate items out and use them before they expire.

In conclusion, I enjoy geocaching with my family, it has allowed us to learn to work as a team. We all now know how to navigate with GPS units, map and compass, or by using landmarks. We also have learned how to travel quietly through the landscape without being detected by muggles. Geocaching is not only fun but allows you to practice some very important survival skills. Also, preppercaching is a great way to spread out your resources and not put all of your eggs in one basket. But please, when you are caching remember to avoid dangerous items and respect the rights of private landowners! A carefully thought out and placed cache may very well save your life someday!



Letter Re: Some Thoughts on Bartering and Disaster Preparedness

Greetings Jim,
I hope this letter finds you well. I wanted to touch on a few topics that may interest some of your readers.

I have been in many phases of the construction trade for 18 years, I live on the edge a medium sized city, and like so many others, because of my work, and the need for a population to support my livelihood, my options are limited as to where I live, so I will have to make do with where I am. Being in the construction industry, I learned early on that it’s Feast or Feathers, so the mentality of not over extending myself is a practiced form of life. The first thing I did to prepare for the inevitable, and sustained “feathers” portion of the economy was to make my home purchase one that would not over extend me debt wise. Second, was the ability to pay the taxes without too much pain. I believe that property tax, is going to be the focus of local governments in the near future, especially as they look for ways to close in on mounting deficits . Give them a reason to confiscate, and they surely will move in that direction in favor of revenue enhancing programs. Given that property tax is almost always adjusted up to reflect the improvements on your home, I have seen mine literally double in 4 years, and I still have two major projects left before my property is ( considered by me) a suitable, safe place to ride “it” out.

I have focused on building a bartering network to offset the cost of projects.Most of my improvements have been done in the form of bartering with other trades people. Bartering has also allowed me to acquire expensive services that would otherwise set me back financially, I trade with my dentist, my lawyer, my accountant. and even with a couple of suppliers. I have found that many of these professions are eager to avoid the hassles and punitive measures that often accompany the regular coarse of business. Which brings me to my next point. Permits and Inspections.

Home improvements always come with an array of rules and regulation, many of these are understandable for safety sake, However, many are simply [revenue] fodder. (A permit for the replacement of a hot water heater, for example.) But one thing they all have in common is that it allows your Local Government to know things that should otherwise be none of their business. Pulling permits to see who has what, and who has done what, where, is something that can be used against citizens in times of crisis.

The Government surely doesn’t inform it’s citizens when it undertakes a project to protect it’s leaders for times of emergency. (The massive bunker built for the US Congress beneath the Greenbriar Hotel in West Virginia comes to mind ) The citizen preparing for times of crisis or worse, should not be fooled into thinking that the permit they pulled to build that hidden underground room for food,ammo, supplies and “other” storage and equipment won’t be used against them to search for supplies that can be redistributed for the “good of the public” I certainly do not advocate living life by breaking laws, But we live in times that I feel warrant certain acts of self preservation.

In making a decision to build, some of the more elaborate projects, such as, subterranean bunkers, with concrete ceilings/ outdoor patio. require engineering to be built safely, so do your homework and don’t scrimp on safety. Search out Tradesmen who are thoroughly experienced in their field, and follow their advice and recommendations.

Remember to offer your line of expertise, if you have a skill, or profession, no matter what it may be, you may be able trade out some or part of your project. speak up!, don’t be shy make an offer, bartering/trading deals are no longer made in back rooms and bar rooms, it has become a widely accepted form of doing business, every single trade in the construction industry is marred with inspections and regulations, government intrusion and permissions.. tradesmen are happy to avoid the ones they can… If you do trade, remember to emphasis networking, trading is fast becoming one of the only affordable ways to get yourself in position for the inevitable. if you have a tradesman working for you who needs car repairs, dental work, landscaping or even a baby-sitter for his kids.. offer to “spread the word”..practice this form of doing business now. If you are a simple construction worker like myself, don’t shy away from the high end professions like doctors, lawyers, and dentists. Many of them are eager to trade.

May God bless us through difficult times, and may the coming challenges give us strength to endure. – Larry O.

Letter Re: Some Real World Battery Life Data