Economics and Investing:

From “Kevin Lendel”: China airs fears on US debt, dollar: lawmaker

10 big banks get OK to repay $68B in bailout money (Thanks to H.D.K. for the link) “Experts say allowing 10 banks to return $68 billion in bailout money illustrates some stability has returned to the system but caution that the crisis isn’t over. Some worry the repayments could widen the gap between healthy and weak banks.” Cheryl N. notes. “Just remember, these banks suddenly were able to pay their bills after the FASB changed some accounting rules. It’s just more “green shoots” based on falsified accounting records.

HPD spotted this piece by Mish Shedlock: Eight Step Program to Improve Fed’s Image

Items from The Economatrix:

Charles Hugh Smith’s commentary: Why The Current Depression Will Be Deeper Than 1929

Justice Ginsburg Delays Chrysler Sale

Geithner to Sen. DeMint: Bailouts May Never End, No Exit Plan. JWR Adds: Gee, that sounds like the very definition of the MOAB

Obamanomics: How Stupid Do They Think We Are?

The Economy is Still at The Brink “We have both spent large chunks of our lives working on Wall Street, absorbing its ethic and mores. We’re concerned that nothing has really been fixed. We’re doubly concerned that people appear to feel the worst of the storm is over —and in this, they are aided and abetted by a hugely popular and charismatic president and by the fact that the Dow has increased by 35 percent or so since Mr. Obama started to lay out his economic plans in March. But wishing for improvement and managing by the Dow’s swings are a fool’s game.”

Bank Profits From Accounting Rules [Relaxation] Masking Looming Loan Losses “The revival may be short-lived. Analysts who have examined the quarterly profits and government tests say that accounting rule changes and rosy assumptions are making the institutions look healthier than they are.”

Economist: Housing Bubble Caused Great Depression, Too

Skousen: Something Rotten In Auto Bankruptcy Deals

Medvedev: Russia, China Should Dump Dollar In Trade “Medvedev said bilateral currency deals between trade partners ease impact of the economic crisis in an environment when many countries have difficulties tapping international capital markets.”

Russian Rouble to Go Palladium

US Expert: India, China Ready to Rule World Economy
“… the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), a London-based economic consulting firm, had predicted emerging market economies may overtake the US and the rest of the Western world this year instead of 2015 as predicted earlier.”

Peter Schiff: The Charm Offensive “…no matter how slick the sales pitch, no amount of lipstick can dress up this pig.”



Odds ‘n Sods:

From my old friend “John Jones”: Solar Storm Threat Assessment

   o o o

SurvivalBlog’s Editor at Large Michael Z. Williamson spotted this video clip. Bobcat wood splitter. Wow! As my dad always said: There’s nothing like power tools!

   o o o

Christopher T. flagged this: Texas company offers ethanol mini-refineries

The folks at Ready Made Resources, mentioned that they just received a limited supply of genuine made in the U.S.A. stainless steel surgical hemostats. These are not made in Pakistani, (some of which will rust in an autoclave) .Still sealed in original packages $17.95 for a pair, in 5-1/2″ and 6-1/2″ length.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"…compared warfare to a grand ballet, where every minute, every second, is carefully choreographed and orchestrated, but when the conductor raises the baton for the first note, two homicidal maniacs jump out of the orchestra pit onto the stage with bayonets and begin chasing the ballerinas – that is warfare. Much the same is true for disaster planning. Nevertheless, because you went through the planning process, you understand the key challenges, the key questions, and the critical issues regarding your specific business – and that is what will give you the flexibility to adapt in a crisis." – General Norman Schwarzkopf



Note from JWR:

Our SurvivalRealty spin-off site has several new retreat property listings in Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho. Also, a very unusual underground house in Colorado has also been re-posted. Check them out. These properties represent some of the best available to get yourself ready to zurück. Find a good retreat and head for the hills!



It Matters Not Whether Inflation or Deflation–You Need to Protect Yourself, by Gentleman Jim from Colorado

No matter who you are, where you live, or whatever your political proclivities, economic trends such as inflation/hyper-inflation/deflation simply don’t care which party you belong to, who you voted for, or whether you’re believe in Keynesian “prime the pump” spending by the government, or not. The laws of economics may be somewhat fungible and give us surprises from time to time, but overall:

* They don’t care whether you love the earth, hate the earth, drive electric tiny-cars or huge Hummers or travel by foot or horse.
* They don’t care whether you’re in a blue state or a red state or a purple state or a pink state.
* They don’t care whether you rent a tiny apartment in the city or own 10,000-acres of ranch land with a huge mansion thereon.

Let me say it one more time: inflation, hyper-inflation and/or deflation don’t care who you are! They’re like unwelcome guests who stop by uninvited and visit you and help themselves, no matter who you are or where you live or what you believe.

Did you know that in the modern history of our world, there are over 500 currencies (systems of money) that simply no longer exist? Yep, the only folks that even know about all those currencies are the coin collectors and a few historians.

* But almost universally, they all share one feature: they died due to hyper-inflation and subsequent devaluation.
* In nearly every one of those cases, the corresponding governments fell, and quite often the societies pretty well ceased to exist—they were subsumed by other nations with stronger currency.

Can’t happen here? Please, do some reading and allow yourself to be impartial.

* Check out the recent cases of [mass] inflation and hyperinflation in Zimbabwe and Argentina.
* Look back to Germany’s Weimar Republic in the 1920s—it is quite easy, via the Internet, to find pictures of everyday Germans taking a wheelbarrow full of money to the store to buy just a loaf of bread.
* Look back to the 1930s in the United States…when the devalued dollar led to such extreme measures that in 1933, FDR confiscated nearly all of the gold in the country—and reimbursed owners at a fraction of the value of their gold (absolutely true statement; I have a copy of the Executive Order, if you’d like to read it).
o Yes, households were allowed to keep a small fraction of their holdings, no more than $100 worth of gold, and also numismatic collector’s coins were exempted.
o Yes, industrial concerns and business were allowed to continue storing “appropriate” amounts of gold for things like making jewelry, etc.
o The point here is—the government literally came and took people’s gold from them…at bargain basement prices.
o Today…what might they take? Your 401(k)? Your military retirement pay? Your teacher’s retirement pay? Your extra cars–and the government gets to define what constitutes “extra”. After all, it isn’t fair for some to have, and others not, right?

· Scary? Over-wrought?

· Again, read the 1933 FDR gold confiscation order. It is real, it happened, and you can even look it up on the Internet or any encyclopedia.

Now then…if you’ve read this far…you’re probably asking yourself the question: “Okay, so what should I be doing about all this? What should other people be doing about it?”

First and foremost…try to staunch (or at least quell) the storm. Contact your city, county, state and federal officials, representatives, senators, presidents, etc.

· Ask them…beg them…demand of them…that spending be reigned in.

· That our governments at all levels live within their means.

· That taxes be kept at lower levels.

Because if we don’t get our spending under control, all of us will suffer. From the top to the bottom, east to west, north to south, rich to poor, old to young.

* Do something…now…before it is too late. Reign in our governments’ spending before it is too late!

Second: You need to start considering the possibility that the looming storm will break right down on top of you…me…us…our children…our grand-parents…everyone we know.

* So, yes, you need to prepare yourself against that day. You don’t have to believe Armageddon is here, to read a couple of history books and understand what happens in a classic deflation—inflation—hyperinflation—government collapse type of situation. And, fortunately, there are some common-sense things you can do to at least reduce the eventual impact on yourself and your loved ones.

For example, pay off all debt. Immediately! Okay, if not immediately, pretty darn fast. Remember that during the Great Depression, many a farm was foreclosed upon because there was a mortgage on it, but sometimes for only a few hundred dollars. It’s just that no one had even that few hundred dollars with which to redeem that mortgage, and thus family homesteads were lost forever.

Understand that one day your bank may close or be closed. Your bank accounts may not be accessible for days…weeks…or even months. It doesn’t really matter if those accounts are FDIC-insured for up to $200,000. If you can’t get it out for six months…and inflation is running at 20% per month…your money will be worthless by the time you can get it out. So, buy a safe and keep a few thousand or few hundred dollars stashed away, just for emergencies. How much do you need to stash away? That is up to you and your particular circumstances. But you should break up the currency into mostly tens, fives and ones…and probably 30% of it should be in coins (quarters, dimes, nickels—but don’t bother with pennies). (BTW, don’t let the neighbors know that you’re doing this!)

If you have the resources, it would be exceedingly wise to store some silver and gold coin, preferably in coin form. Since most of us can’t afford that buy-in prices of gold (now well over $900 per ounce), that means buying silver. Survivalblog has some excellent recommendations in this area, and you should check that source. However, for most of us, you can break it down into two easy-to-remember areas:

1) Pre-1965 U.S. “junk silver” coins (back when U.S. coins were still mostly silver-based, at about 90%). These include quarters, dimes, half-dollar and dollar coins of the era. But check the silver content of half-dollars—those made from 1965 to 1970 are only 40% silver. Look at places like SurvivalBlog and Coinflation.com to understand why buying pre-1965 coinage is a good idea; for this article, suffice to say that these are a good idea. Your budget will of course determine how much of these you can buy. Potential sources include local coin dealers, local coin collectors (potentially the cheapest sources, if you can find an elderly couple who are liquidating their collections), eBay, Goldline.com and many others. You should be able to buy these junk silver coins for between 10 and 12 times the face value of the coins selected, depending on your source.

2) U.S. Silver Eagle coins. Now, many smart folks like Jim Rawles of Survivalblog are not fans of the Silver Eagle series of coins—check his web site for those opinions. On the other hand, I am personally of the opinion that Silver eagles represent a very strong option. They are obviously more valuable than the pre-1965 junk silver coins, and thus you can get a great store of value into fewer coins. After all, the space considerations of storing a zillion dimes and quarters is pretty significant. Plus, they get very heavy very fast. Silver Eagle coins, on the down side, may represent too large a store of value in one coin….you don’t want to be buying a loaf of bread with a U.S. Silver Eagle, when a 90%-silver Mercury Dime will do the job.

1. On the other hand, I can’t see anyone carrying thirty pounds of silver through what could be very dangerous streets, on their way to try to bribe some embassy official to provide a visa to a more stable country. Heck, even the Silver Eagles might be too big and heavy for that purpose, so you probably will need to have some gold coins, as well.

2. Don’t laugh too hard at that concept. Remember, gold & silver were how many Jews and other ethnic minorities bought their way out of Nazi Germany and occupied Europe, at least in the early years of the Hitler era. Today, a few of the minority farmers in the Zimbabwean countryside are using gold & silver to buy passage to safety, once they have been driven off their farms by the mobs.

If you can afford to buy some gold, as well as silver, be sure to include a lot of the smaller [fractional] gold coins. You don’t want to be getting out a hammer and chisel, trying to cut a gold coin in half, in the middle of a long immigration line. But never forget that U.S. government has confiscated gold once before (1933), and could well do so again. You might want to be discreet in how you purchase, store and transport your gold.

Finally, remember that such silver and gold purchases are not investments. They are insurance! Just as you pay “XXX “dollars a month for your auto, home or life insurance, yet count yourself lucky if you never have to make a claim for your policies’ benefits…you should look at Gold and Silver the same way. Try to buy consistently over time, and try to buy a little more whenever the prices drop some.

* But recognize that you are buying insurance against the partial or total devaluation of our nation’s currency. Don’t expect to make any money off of these purchases in an investment sense—but I’ll bet you sleep better at night, once you have stored a small amount of silver & gold in your home safe.

Third, you need to invest in commodities and hard assets—“things.” The good news is that you can do this without owning 50 guns or living on the Canadian border.

* If you think inflation/hyper-inflation is coming….having a few months of food in the pantry is a sure money-maker.
* If you believe deflation is coming…having some food on-hand is even more important—because in a deflationary environment, many farms will be going out of business and cease production…meaning that no more how little it might cost or how much money you might have…if the corn is never grown in the first place, it can’t find it’s way to your dinner table.

If you find the pantry & storage room getting cluttered with canned goods and boxes, invest in some shelving units. I recommend specialized food storage shelving units such as those sold at Rocky Mountain Home Solutions (Disclosure: my wife owns and operates this company.) Or, check out the various advertisers on SurvivalBlog

* Think about buying a four-wheel drive SUV or truck. If not, at least make sure your vehicles are in good repair, with excellent tires and brakes, recently tuned-up, and with new air filters.
* Buy some new/extra camping supplies…and then use them to take the kids camping this summer. You’ll save money over hitting places like Disney World or Six Flags, probably have more fun, get closer to your kids, create some lifelong memories, and then still have the camping equipment that could be used “just in case.”
* Think about a means of self-defense, keeping in mind local, state and federal laws.

1. How, How Much and What Kind are completely up to you, within the bounds of your budget and your good conscience.

2. One good rule of thumb is that for any means of self-defense to be useful, you must also invest in initial and ongoing training.

3. So, if you want to use judo or karate as your self-defense means, then you need to stay in shape and practice on a regular basis.

4. If you want some knives—you need to take a couple of courses on how to effectively defend yourself without risking harm to yourself or innocent bystanders.

5. And if you buy a firearm of some type, then you really need to know what you’re doing. Don’t put yourself in a bad situation by not knowing how to handle your weapons. This is not meant to discourage you from owning firearms—we own several—but to emphasize that they require an investment of your time and attention, as well as money. [JWR Adds: Get training from well-qualified instructors. Start with an NRA firearms safety class. Then take advantage of the inexpensive training offered by the RWVA (the Appleseed folks) and WRSA. Then move on to advanced training offered by schools like Gunsite and Thunder Ranch. As time and budget allow, move on to advanced force -on-force training.]

6. And of course, firearms require an investment in ammunition—or you risk having only large clubs to defend yourself with.

After taking these initial steps toward preparing for an uncertain future, consider other resources for further information and “next steps. Obviously, SurvivalBlog is an excellent source—very even-handed and stays on topic. We’ve also found the Mountain Steps Blog to be a great source of straightforward, honest advice—perfect for the beginning or “early” preparer. Stay away from any radical blogs that focus on conspiracy theories and potential violence—they simply spend too much time focusing on “why” things are happening, and you probably don’t have the time for that. Instead, focus on preparing for a broad spectrum of potential scenarios that will give you the widest scope of options in any real-world emergency.

Well, that’s probably enough advice for now. I hope some of you have found it useful, and perhaps even inspiring. As my old basketball coach used to say: “Don’t be caught watching the paint dry!!” Do something, because anything is going to be better than nothing.



Economics and Investing:

The new class divide: Debt; In hard times, how much money you make matters less than how much you owe. Many of today’s have-nots are yesterday’s gotta-have-it-alls

Matt B. and Cheryl both sent a link to an animated map that shows job growth and losses for the past few years. Cheryl’s comment: “As the timeline progresses to August , 2009, it looks like a nuclear blast map.” Correlate that map with my Recommended Retreat Areas. Where will crime be higher in the next few years?

Items from The Economatrix:

Obama, Facing High Unemployment, Defends Stimulus

Betting The Fed

Bankruptcy Filings Rise to 6,000 a Day Due to Job Loss

Bankruptcy’s Hidden Toll: The Little Guys

Celente: Exclusive Interview

13 Cities Post Unemployment Higher Than 15% for April


Real Unemployment Situation
26,000,000 unemployed or underemployed, $10/hr jobs growing, $20/hr jobs disappearing
The article begins: “On Friday, we learned that the unemployment rate jumped to 9.4 percent from last month’s 8.9 percent. The BLS data surveys 160,000 businesses and government agencies that affect roughly 400,000 people so the data does cover a large portion of Americans and gives us a good sample size. The markets were largely moving sideways on Friday unable to make sense of the mixed data because we are still largely living through a highly volatile market.”

Gold At $2,000







Welcome to the Savage World of the Year 2009

“Welcome to the savage world of the year 2009”. That was the tag line of the 1992 sci-fi film Freejack , starring Emilio Estevez. Do you remember it? The movie that featured Cadillac Gage V100 wheeled APCs painted in bright colors? My old friend All-Grace-No-Slack-Really-Reformed Kris just reminded me about this movie. Kris noted: “It was a bit corny but it had some good scenes and characters such as Amanda Plummer as the gun-toting nun.” This film provides an insight on what futurists then thought 2009 would be like, as well as a retrospective on life in 1992.

Let’s look back at 1992: It is amazing how much the world has changed since 1992. To me, it doesn’t seem that long ago. In 1992 I was 32 years, old, and our first child was an infant. In 1992, .308 ball cost $180 per thousand rounds, a Colt M1911 cost around $350, and cases of MREs could be bought at gun shows for around $30 each. Back in those days, I was running a mail order business from home, selling magazines. I was buying M1 Carbine 15 round magazines in cases of 100, for $90 per case, and re-selling them by the onesees and twosees for $3 per magazine. (One of my “get rich slow” ventures.) In 1992, you could still buy a plane ticket for cash, and stroll right up to the departure gate without a ticket in hand. Yes, there was a metal detector, but you could board a commercial flight with a pocketknife with a single-edge blade less than 2-1/2″ long. (Remember when knife catalogs had “Airline approved” models?) In 1992, gasoline was $1.05 per gallon ($1.09 for premium), and a good loaf of bread still cost 49 cents. In 1992 you could take a car trip into Mexico or Canada, with a smile and the wave of your state driver’s license.

In 1992, I owned a small ranch near Orofino, Idaho. House prices there ranged from $39,000 to $155,000. (In 1989, we had paid $29,000 for an unfinished house on 40 acres.) Silver started that year at $4.20 per ounce, but drifted down to under $3.70 in December. (It was still in the midst of a two-decade long bear market.) A semi-auto AK-47 cost $179, an AR-15 was around $500, and an M1A was $800.

Fast forward to 2009: The local gun shops are chronically short of ammunition, and what little they do receive from their wholesalers sells out immediately, at an average of $1 per round. Today .308 ball costs $900 per thousand rounds, a Colt M1911 costs around $1,200. A case of MREs can cost upwards of $90, and a loaf of bread is anywhere from 99 cents for the dreadful “air bread” to $4.69 for the good stuff. Gas is back up to more than $2.50 per gallon. A semi-auto AK-47 costs around $700, a low-end AR-15 is around $1,200, and a standard grade M1A is $1,600 if you can find one. Today, people line up like sheep and remove their shoes before boarding an airplane, and opening a checking account requires umpteen pieces of identification. Now, thanks to “Homeland Security” regulations, they will turn you down if you don’t have a physical street address. (BTW, that gets a bit sticky here in The Unnamed Western State, where lots of my neighbors live so far back in the boonies that they don’t have a street address. The bankers get all befuddled if you start quoting the Township, Range, and Section numbers of your quarter-section.

In 2009, house prices are still plummeting from their 2006 highs, but still quite “spendy.” A house around Orofino with a good spring now costs around $400,000. Who knows? In the current bear market, the price of houses may not bottom until they are close to their 1992 levels. Oh, and wait a minute! Firearms manufactuers are now working around the clock, and prices are expected to soon come back down. In 1992, a Steyr AUG cost $800, but then they peaked in 2008 at around $4,000. But now new production AUGs (made by Steyr in the US) have hit the market for under $1,800. You gotta love a free market economy. Maybe the more that things change, the more they remain the same.

The “Freejack” script was loosely based on Robert Sheckley’s novel “Immortality, Inc.” The screenwriters had a few things right, but plenty of things wrong. For example, the “destroyed ozone layer” hasn’t wrecked our health. And I don’t feel at risk of my brain being hijacked. But, then again, I don’t own a television.



Letters Re: Advice for an M4 and AR-15 Newbie

Some tips to ad on to your good advice [in reply to the letter “Advice for an M4 and AR-15 Newbie”]:

The field manual is good, but these two books coupled with some classes from Front Sight, EAG Tactical, Magpul Dynamics, Viking Tactics, Vickers Tactical, CSAT (Paul Howe), or another reputable school are the most valuable.

Green Eyes and Black Rifles: Warriors Guide to the Combat Carbine  by Kyle Lamb.

The M16/M4 Operators Handbook by Mike Panone. Kudos to the writer for “buying right, buying once” with the LMT. That is a very nice rifle.

Regarding spare parts: The BCM SOPMOD Extractor Upgrade kit is a “must have” in the spare parts bin.

Regards, – Matt L.



Letter Re: Storing Paper and Envelopes

Jim;
After reading “Patriots” one thing that has stuck with me is the non-availability of writing paper: No paper, no envelopes. Now there won’t be any mail delivery either but envelopes have many other uses. One of these is garden seed storage. Keeping notes together in ones jacket etc.

So i have been taking the envelopes that come in my monthly bills ( I pay with my online banking) and those that come in all the various offers that you get for magazines, insurance quotes etc. and put them in a box.

They don’t take up much room and can easily be tossed if this proves a non-issue but if i need them , well , they will be here.

To top it off this is a no cost prep effort. – Paulette



Economics and Investing:

traded for crack, Syracuse police say

The Hardest Jobs to Fill in America: If you’re looking for work in any of these fields, you’re in luck.

Items from The Economatrix:

Weiss: Feds Giving “Lip Service” to Fiscal Responsibility “Weiss recommends everyone ‘make severe sacrifices in order to save money and to build up cash reserves for future bad times.'”

Appeals Court Upholds Sale of Chrysler to Fiat

Federal Jobs Lost in May: 345,000 Is “a little better” now the measure of success?

Securitization: The Biggest Rip-Off Ever; Financial Dereg Has Opened Pandora’s Box “The former head of the FDIC, William Seidman, figured it all out back in 1993 when he was cleaning up after the S&L fiasco. Here’s what he said in his memoirs: ‘Instruct regulators to look for the newest fad in the industry and examine it with great care. The next mistake will be a new way to make a loan that will not be repaid.’ (Bloomberg) ‘That’s it in a nutshell. The banks never expected the loans would be paid back, which is why they issued them to ninjas; applicants with no income, no collateral, no job, and a bad credit history.'”

The Most Important Economic Indicator You’ve Never Heard Of (The Baltic Dry Index, and yes, you’ve heard of it at SurvivalBlog.)

GM’s Dismantling Opens Doors for Foreign Carmarkers

New Bull Run Called By Tracker of Dow’s Historical Trends. [JWR Adds: My Barbra Steisand meter is pegging.]

Science Reinvents the Economy: Bubble Math

Biden: Obama to Ramp Up Stimulus Efforts
“Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has lost a net total of 6 million jobs. “

Most US Stocks Fall, Led By Banks, On Interest Rate Concern



Odds ‘n Sods:

KAF found this: Hey Homebuyers, Beware A False Bottom Before You Make That Bid

   o o o

Bob at Ready Made Resources mentioned that they are offering special pricing on their photovoltaic (PV) power systems. They offer systems scaled for all budgets. Since I expect that the Federal 30% tax credit on alternative energy systems will soon be cancelled, I most strongly encourage SurvivalBlog readers to go ahead and install a PV power system soon.

   o o o

I noticed that the 2008 movie Defiance has been released on DVD. This film was based on the book Defiance: The Bielski Partisans by Nechama Tec.

   o o o

KT mentioned eh good news that Tennessee now has a “Made in…” Federal exemption gun law much like the ones that Montana and Texas have already enacted.

 



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Every collectivist movement rides in on a Trojan Horse of ’emergency’. It was a tactic of Lenin, Hitler and Mussolini.” – Herbert Hoover, Memoirs: The Great Depression (1951)



Letter Re: Thermostatic Switches for Wood Heat Forced-Air Room Heating

James,

[For for wood heat forced-air room heating], I recommend using one of these switches that opens when the temperature drops below 115 degrees, and closes when the temp rises above 130 degrees. Mount it where it will “see” the heat but not be exposed the maximum heater temperatures. On the support legs would probably be sufficient. This might have to run through a small relay that has contacts that can handle the motor starting and run currents. Depends on the fan motor ratings. Regards, – David H.