Economics and Investing:

Reader DLF spotted this: Detroit: Too broke to bury their dead

Foreclosure Rate Rises 17 Percent. (Thanks to The Other Chris for the link.)

A residential real estate shadow inventory case study.

Items from The Economatrix:

Manufacturing, Employment Pounds Stocks

Jobs and Manufacturing Suggest Slow Recovery

Banks Trim Use of Emergency Fed Programs

September US Auto Sales Fall Amid Clunkers Letdown

Natural Gas Tumbles with Most Ever in Storage

Unprecedented US Corporate Defaults Seen for 2009
[JWR’s comment: So where is the “recovery” that the CNBC cheering section keeps talking about? I think that a recovery around 2022 may be closer to the truth.]

Greenspan: Growth Slowing, Stocks “Flattening Out”

Dollar Falls Again in Second Quarterly Loss

Schoon: The Coffin-Shaped Recovery

Dan Denninger: The Banking System is Insolvent



Odds ‘n Sods:


Ammo Rationing at Wal-Mart as Panic Buying Sweeps US

   o o o

Signs of the times in small-town America: Layoffs, lost cruisers: Problems grow for sheriff. Here is a key quote: “‘We will be a lawless society,’ worries Angela Greenwell, a county board member, fearing the latest trouble ‘basically has neutered the sheriff’s department.'”

   o o o

Los Angeles Times reporter Matthew Brown digs in to the conflicting reports coming out of Hardin, Montana: California entrepreneur promising to revitalize rural Montana town has checkered past. This just gets curiouser and curiouser.

   o o o

Reader Phil E. discovered a map graphic that could prove useful: McDonalds fast food franchises in the USA. Phil’s comments: “Predictably, it shows many blank areas in the west. It is very similar to the lights-at-night pictures, with fewer data points. It makes a good point about relocation areas.” JWR’s comment: This squares perfectly with my postulate on “Stop n’ Rob” convenience stores that I’ve often mentioned to my consulting clients. Some of the safest places to be during the unfolding economic depression will be small towns without the conveniences and franchise chains. These towns will have no appeal to the assorted riffraff that will wander out of the big cities in a “slow slide” collapse. They’ll likely just pass through, opting instead for larger towns with welfare infrastructures that can accommodate them.



#1 Son’s Quote of the Day:

“Modern military planners often talk in terms of “threat spirals” when a given threat escalates and inspires a defensive countermeasure. Ideally you should anticipate your opponent’s next escalation and take countermeasures, insulating yourself from the future threat.” – James Wesley, Rawles, discussing recent trends in home invasion robberies in
“How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It: Tactics, Techniques, and Technologies for Uncertain Times”



Notes from JWR:

My sincere thanks for making the Book Bomb Day a great success! When I last checked, my new book was ranked at #4 in Amazon.com’s overall book rankings. Only the new Dan Brown novel, the upcoming Sarah Palin book, and Glenn Beck’s book are ranked higher. How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It is also ranked #1 in the Survival Skills category, #1 in the Technology & Society category, #1 in the General & Reference category, and #2 in nonfiction books. Thanks again! At this rate, the publisher will soon have to order a second printing. (The first printing was 20,000 copies.)

OBTW, so that Amazon doesn’t get all the business, be advised that there are many other outlets for How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It. These sources include:

Barnes & Noble

Books-A-Million

Borders

Indie Bound – This is a coalition of independent booksellers. While they don’t sell directly from the web site, they direct customers to their nearest independent bookstore. The customer enters a zip code to find the nearest independent bookseller, then the customer can order through that specific seller’s site, or go pick it up at the store. Support you local book store!

My book should also soon be available soon as a regularly-stocked item at “bricks and mortar” bookstores.

Once again, thank you!



Writing Contest Winners – Round 24

We’ve completed the judging! The first prize winner for Round 24 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest is”Old Dog” , for his article “Grub and Gear–Lessons Learned from an Alaskan Trapper”. He will receive: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.)

The second prize winner is Brad T. for his article Bug Out and Refugee Considerations. He will receive a “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

The third prize winner is C. the Old Farmer , for her article The Disaster Garden–What’s Not in the Can. She will receive a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Runner-up prizes go to four writers:

T.W.P., for Camouflage: The Art of the “Liar”

Lisa L., for One Woman’s View of Budget Preparedness

Prepared in Maine, for Prepare to Garden Like Your Life Depends on It.

KAF, for Squeezing Efficiency Out of Every Second of Your Workday to Provide Quality Relaxation Time

They will each receive a $30 Amazon.com gift certificate.

Note to prize winners: Please e-mail me your snail mail addresses (both UPS and US mail), and I’ll get your prizes out, right away.

Today we begin Round 25 of the writing contest, which will end on November 30th. Get busy writing, and e-mail your entry!



Letter Re: Putting the Fats Back Into Non-Fat Powdered Milk

Hello Mr. Rawles,

Here is a link to Chow How that I thought some of your readers might wish to print out and add to their preparedness manuals.

It tells you how to add the fats back to powdered milk (with oil) to make whole milk. It is important that toddlers have the fat for proper brain growth. It would also be a good idea for pregnant women to have the extra fats.

Hope this link is helpful to some of your readers. Sincerely, ~ Garnet



Two Letters Re: Crystal Radios

JWR,
While the concept and idea of a Crystal Radio for TEOTWAWKI (no battery or external power) sounds ideal, in practice the execution leaves much to be desired.

Many ignore the fact that if a grid down situation occurs (or worse an EMP attack) that most radio stations in the affected area will be down and out for the count. In a best case scenario if the transmitting station’s components aren’t damaged, how long will their source of backup power stay up? Many modern stations rely on satellite feeds or long line telephone circuits for their program materials to be delivered and many regional stations have a minimum of technical staff (and no announcers) to maintain their operation and some station’s technical staff actually drives or travels on a circuit to do the upkeep on conglomerate owned stations in a region. US Domestic shortwave stations are in the same boat.

My point? You will probably use your radio for long distance listening to stations that are still up and functioning. Crystal radio sets run the gamut from children’s toys to hobbyist’s expensive toys but generally due to lack of amplification are useful for local listening (and some of the children’s toy type can only pick up two or three very close AM stations – even with a good (100’ long) antenna and ground).

The sets with a mechanical cat’s whisker detector are EMP proof but the ones with a 1N34A style germanium diode are not. The junction in the manufactured diode is very, very sensitive to surges. [JWR Adds: Be sure to buy a few spare detector diodes, and keep them wrapped in insulating plastic and then in tin with a tight-fitting lid, or at least a sleeve of aluminum foil with al seams folded.]

If you want to build or use a set then my strong suggestion is to instead build a one-tube regenerative receiver using space charge technology. These don’t require special batteries or high voltages. If you do a search for a Hiker’s Radio there are a few sites that explore the building of the sets. The component counts are low, the sets are very easy to build (only slightly more complex than a crystal radio), you can use a couple of AA and 9-volt batteries to power them and they utilize the same style of headphones as a crystal set.

The advantages are that the set can be easily built to cover the AM and Shortwave bands, the regenerative receiver can detect AM, Morse Code and SSB signal. (In contrast, crystal radios are limited to AM only.) If built to use 12 volts DC can be run from car batteries, dry cells or gel cell batteries. The Armstrong regenerative circuit provides amplification to the signals and you will be amazed at how sensitive the set actually is.

Parts (including the tube) are available from many sources. (You can even find the parts to build one easily on eBay). Finally, there are a few folks who build these sets and sell them on eBay. (Do a web search for “regen receiver”). Regards, – Karl A.

 

James,
This is another topic about which I have some intimate knowledge. When I was a kid – when gasoline sold for 29 cents a gallon – I built three crystal radios. I build them using both a razor blade and a germanium diode as the detector. I never had a piece of galena crystal to try out.

This kind of radio receiver depends heavily on having a strong radio signal. When I built my first one my folks were living in a small town in Central Texas that had exactly two radio stations (on 1240 and 1380 AM.) I can remember hearing both stations at the same time. That was because both stations were only a couple of miles away. This is what happens when a crystal radio is used. Also, a crystal radio radio can only drive a crystal earphone, which means only one person at a time can listen to it.

Far superior to a crystal radio for survival is a pair of two superheterodyne radios. One of the two radios would be of the hand crank and/or solar cell variety, a solid state radio. Unless there is an EMP attack this will be the best radio one can have because it’s light and it requires no replacement batteries.

In case there is an EMP attack a vacuum tube radio is the best radio to have. It is possible to shield a solid state radio from EMP by storing it inside of a well grounded metal box or can. But, what if you happen to have the radio out when the EMP attack occurs? You’re SOL unless you have a spare radio stored in a grounded can. (What if there’s a second EMP attack?)

The best type of vacuum tube radio to have is what’s commonly called an “All American Five.” This type of radio was built between about 1935 and 1960 by literally hundreds of US manufacturers. What distinguishes the All American Five is that it uses a set of five tubes whose filament voltages add up to about 120 volts. Since it has no power supply transformer it can be run on either 120 volts AC or DC (10 car batteries in series.)

The older version, made from the late 1930s through the 1940s used the 12SA7-12SK7-12SQ7-50L6-35Z5 tube lineup. The later version, made during the 1950s and into the early 1960s used the 12BE6-12BA6-12AV6-50C5-35W4 tube lineup. For survival use I recommend getting one of the later versions and keeping around a full set off spare tubes (especially the 50C5 and 35W4.) These radios are very sensitive and selective. At night they easily pick up stations up to 1,000 miles away.

“All American Five” radios often sell for around $20 – $30 on eBay. They make cheap insurance against EMP. Regards, – M.E.



Economics and Investing:

A Year Later, TARP Inspector General Barofsky Sees a ‘Far More Dangerous’ Financial Situation

Officials: Fed will need to boost rates quickly. (Thanks to El Jefe Jeff E. for the link.)

Bob G. sent the link to this Wall Street Journal piece: Plenty More Bank Losses Expected Globally; Additional $1.5 Trillion in Write-Downs Forecast by End of 2010

Account overdrawn: FDIC Fund Goes Negative. Although the US Treasury is the guarantor of last resort, it now won’t take much to trigger bank runs. (A hat tip to K.T. for the link.)

Items from The Economatrix:

Hard Times Good for Your Health

Marty Weiss: US Dollar Crashes Against Yen! Time to Act!

US Dollar Set to Be Eclipsed, World Bank President Predicts


FDIC Considers Calling for Bank Advances


Homeowners in Financial Trouble Often Re-Default


Fed is Developing New Exit Tools

Economy Dips at 0.7% Pace in Second Quarter



Odds ‘n Sods:

Damon flagged a good essay by Claire Wolfe, over at Backwoods Home: Circle of friends The importance of other people in our preparedness plans

   o o o

Andrew H. wrote to mention that the US Government Printing Office (GPO) finally has the Special Forces Medical Handbook back in stock.

   o o o

Eric S. noted this Popular Mechanics article; Highly Productive, Low-Stress Animals You Can Raise at Home

   o o o

Nanny State Britannia Update: Barmy Britain through the looking glass

   o o o

FG found this: Internet overtakes television to become biggest advertising sector in the UK. The accompanying comment from FG: “Television viewing is quickly being buried by Internet. No great loss. The Internet allows real choice, input, and opposing viewpoints. Television offers none of the above.”





Notes from JWR:

Today is “Book Bomb” Day for my new book, “How to Survive the End of the World as We Know It: Tactics, Techniques, and Technologies for Uncertain Times”. My goal for the Book Bomb is a surge of orders is that will drive the book’s Amazon sales rank into the top 50, overall. (When I last checked, it was at #160.) Many thanks for waiting to order until today!!

My scheduled guest appearance on the Laura Ingraham talk radio show has been postponed to Monday, October 5th. Sorry about the late notice.

Today we present the final entry for Round 24 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) and C.)A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.)

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 24 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail your entry for Round 25. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



C&R FFL, Milsurp Firearms and Your Survival Battery, by The Alchemist

The C&R FFL, Milsurp Firearms, and Your Survival Battery, by The Alchemist

The survival battery is a key issue for any prepper, as one of the biggest short-term concerns in a SHTF scenario is security. Stored supplies and learned skills are all for naught if you can’t protect the supplies from theft or survive to put those skills to use. While I would love for everyone to have a chance for a top of the line Main Battle Rifle (MBR), they do not run cheap, nor is the ammunition cheap these days. While modern rifles have undoubted advantages, there are also a large number of older weapons that remain capable, and which most citizens can buy online with a little paperwork.

To trade firearms in interstate commerce, one must have a Federal Firearms License – an FFL. Once upon a time one could acquire a Type 01 FFL (also known as a dealer FFL) as a “home FFL” at a reasonable price and without too much trouble, but since about the Clinton administration they’ve become much tighter – looking to allow only those selling firearms for a profit. One option still remaining to us mere citizens is the Curios and Relics (C&R) FFL or 03 FFL) is a “collectors” license which allows you to purchase firearms on the C&R list in interstate commerce. This means that you can buy C&R handguns out of state, or can buy online and have them shipped directly to you through a “common carrier”. A purchase at a gun show or dealer on a C&R FFL can legally dispense with all the paperwork and checks normally required – a signed copy of your C&R and payment is all that is needed. The C&R list is comprised of all firearms over 50 years old as well as firearms determined by BATF to be of special collector value. Some short-barreled firearms and large caliber “destructive devices” have been released from NFA status on the C&R list. Others (including all machineguns to my knowledge) remain NFA items despite their C&R status.

Why would a survival prepper want C&R firearms? Despite their age, there are some very capable firearms on the C&R list. If you’re looking for a nice bolt-action rifle there are plenty of WWII era rifles that are both affordable and extremely accurate, such as the Mosin-Nagant (Russian WWI and Soviet/Finnish WWII), the Mauser (German WWII and Czech post-WWII), and the [Schmidt-Rubin] K31 (Swiss). If you’re looking for an MBR on a budget you can look for an SKS (7.62×39), an FN-49 (multiple calibers including 8mm Mauser, .308, 7mm Mauser, and 30-06), or an M1 Garand (30-06), all of which are reasonably capable weapons even today. In many cases these are almost new (or totally new) rifles placed in storage before being replaced with newer models. For a reasonable price (and a little cosmoline cleanup) you can have a durable, high-quality rifle.

For pistols, I like the the TTC/TT33 in 7.62×25 Tokarev as a rugged “beater” pistol for cheap target practice (how can one beat 11 cents per round these days?), and at 1,400-to-1,600 fps, full metal jacket 7.62×25 can often penetrate NIJ Level II body armor. For a nice little plinking pistol I like the CZ-82 in 9×18 Makarov – a nice $200 pistol in a reasonably capable cartridge. While I wouldn’t recommend it as a primary sidearm, its capable enough to stash one with 1,000 rounds or so in a burial tube or a pre-positioned store, or simply to get some target practice with more recoil than a .22 in a low-cost package. You can find .45 pistols (including WWII era M1911s) and 9x19s as well, though demand has often pushed the price up near the new cost (or above for true collectors’ items).

With a military surplus (“milsurp“) C&R gun of the right caliber you should be able to take advantage of available surplus ammunition to reduce training costs. For the price of 400 rounds of .30-06 I can buy a Mosin-Nagant bolt action rifle with 1,200 rounds of 7.62x54R ammunition (or 400 rounds and four Mosin-Nagant rifles). Once I have the cash I can add a “Dragunov” type (usually a Romanian PSL) as a longer-range MBR in the same caliber to round out the armory. And since this isn’t a “pistol” caliber, you can purchase all the Armor Piercing (AP) or Armor Piercing -Incendiary (API) ammo you want. Sure, it isn’t quite as sexy as a more modern solution (FAL/HK/M1A + .308 bolt action), but it’ll save you $400 or more on the rifles alone. And don’t discount the lower ammo costs – ammo turns money into skill. There’s little point worrying about 2.5 MOA vs 1 MOA accuracy if your training limits you to 4 MOA.

The availability of modestly priced weapons also gives added flexibility when considering how to arm “guests” or how to have firearms available for trade in a SHTF scenario. A few bolt action rifles, battle carbines, or surplus pistols held in reserve can allow you to make guests useful in security or hunting without degrading the armories of the principal preppers. The more paranoid may also make sure that any new arrivals are using only “obscure” or “oddball” calibers (that you’ve stocked in some quantity) to encourage their loyalty – if you’re the only source of ammunition for a particular rifle it remains most valuable when you’re working in line with the goals of the primary preppers. It would certainly be preferable to only work with trusted individuals, but we do not control every situation we find ourselves in – only our reactions. One can have an option and not use it, but you can’t use an option that you haven’t given yourself.

Don’t want a Federal FFL on your record? You can do almost as well by making friends with a C&R holder. A C&R is not a dealer license – you are not permitted to run a business on it, although incidental profits on sales are acceptable. A C&R holder may however purchase multiple firearms of the same type looking for a particularly high quality specimen – and as a friend you could offer to buy an uglier gun that’s merely a “good shooter” from them. You both win in such a case – you get a nice firearm with little paper trail at a good price, and the C&R holder gets a better quality rifle for their collection. It should also be noted that as a C&R holder you do not need to go through an NICS check nor file form 4473, since the transfer is between FFL holders. Additionally, unlike a dealer FFL your bound book is your own, and does not need to be surrendered if the FFL expires. The ATF can request an inspection once per year while you hold the FFL, but cannot drop in randomly and must allow for off-site inspection of the firearms in the bound book and the bound book itself.

I would highly recommend that preppers consider a C&R license and firearms, particularly the military surplus weaponry, as a valuable resource. Cheap and rugged weapons together with lower-cost surplus ammunition make an attractive package – even if they’re not your primary tactical weapon, they’re perfectly functional as a secondary arm for hunting, scouting, or other such tasks. They’re also very attractive for an emergency cache or a pre-positioned store, as the lower cost enables you to purchase more weaponry for your investment. This is one of the few crumbs the Feds have seen fit to leave us mere mortals – we may as well take advantage of it while we can!



Letter Re: Amateur Radio for the Rest of Us

Mr. Rawles,

Thank you for including the recent article on amateur radio in SurvivalBlog. I have been an amateur radio operator for about 35 years and have been playing with radios for over 40 years.

I am amazed with the depth of knowledge of the readers on your blog. In many of the topics covered, I know very little. I have one criticism of amateur radio operators concerning “emcon” or emergency communications. Many hams like to participate in the organized drills with their local Emergency Government officials. This is a big mistake in a SHTF scenario. Think of yourselves, your family, and those closest to you first.

While it may be advantageous to be on good terms with law enforcement, they really don’t care about us. Public safety agencies pay millions of dollars on high tech, complicated communications systems. If they still fail in a TEOTWAWKI situation, any civilian communications gear can be seized, upon gunpoint, in an emergency. They may also be seized to prevent any civilian communications.

Most police lack user discipline on radios. They really don’t understand radios. I consider a good working knowledge of communications as complicated as a working knowledge of firearms. We would use our firearms to protect ourselves and our loved ones first. Think of communications gear the same way. Forget about all of this nonsense about amateur radio as a “public service”. Think of radios in terms of communications only. The license is not going to matter in a SHTF situation. Only your knowledge of radios and communications in general will make the difference. Best Regards, – Randall S.





Economics and Investing:

Reader GG spotted this sobering piece: Corpse of a Thousand Houses. More foreclosures will soon be flooding the market, further depressing the housing market. This is the negative feedback loop (aka “death spiral”) that I’ve been warning about since late 2006.

From El Jefe Jeff E.: US large-loan bank losses triple to $53 billion; Regulators say US lenders expected to lose $53 billion in 2009 on loans larger than $20M. Jeff’s comment: “53 Billion is a lot to lose, and they were ‘surprised’ by the losses….I wonder what else is lurking that will cause these banks more surprises.”

Also from Jeff E.: Economists React: “A Surprising Decline” in Orders

Reader Mike W. sent this advice from The Motley Fool on the US Dollar: Get Out Now!

Items from The Economatrix:

What’s The Real Reason Banks Aren’t Foreclosing?

Yen Hits 8-Month High on “Baffling” Fujii


Iceland One Year Later: Little Island, Big Trouble

Savers Losing Faith in Banks

Greenspan: The Fed is Above the Law And Answers to No One

No G-20 Reform, Just Cosmetic Patches

Money Figures Show There’s Trouble Ahead

FDIC Bank Failures to Cost Around $100 Billion

Oil Prices Dip With Consumers Leery Over Economy