Economics and Investing:

Jeff E. suggested this: Wilbur Ross Sees ‘Huge’ Commercial Real Estate Crash

“FarmerGreen” mentioned: Harvard’s Bet on Interest Rate Rise Cost $500 Million to Exit. Even the best and brightest at Harvard lost a billion to get out of a derivatives contract that went south.

Bruiser spotted this: California to Begin Holding More of Your Paycheck. Bruiser’s comment: “The lesson here is that if one needs a loan, just go out and take it from everyone who has a job. Like Commifornia is doing.” [JWR Adds: My favorite quote from the article: “The state is closing part of this year’s budget deficit by taking an advance on next year’s tax revenues. ‘It’s a one-time acceleration, or on-time speeding up if you will, of tax dollars that would otherwise be collected next fiscal year.’ But the state wants to make clear that the change, which has no cutoff date, is not a tax.” Yeah. right. (Only someone that graduated from a California public school would believe that Bravo Sierra.]

Items from The Economatrix:

Flat Income, Weak Consumer Spending Raises Concerns

Dollar Rises Most Since April

10-Year Treasury Notes Decline Most Since May

Trillion Dollar Ticking Derivatives Time Bomb to Explode Under Bankrupt Banks

The Dollar Depends on Politicians Now



Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader Brian B. mentioned a new Internet service called GunPal opened last week which allows for the online payment of all transactions, including firearms-related commerce. (PayPal is notoriously anti-gun.) Hopefully this new service will prosper and provide a valuable resource for those requiring freedom of choice. It was founded by a group of pro-gun gents–mostly from CalGuns–and their roster of advisory board members includes fellow pro-gun blogger Oleg Volk. We should help grow GunPal — effectively voting with our dollars. It took just five minutes for me to set up a GunPal account, and I’ve already added it as an option for payments for consulting, advertising payments, and voluntary Ten Cent Challenge subscriptions. Let’s get the new company off to a great start!

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Bob B.: suggested this Nightline video from 2008 that you might have missed: Living the Real Simple Life. It shows how much food one family can grow on just 1/5th acre.

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“Arrggh, me buckos. Time to board that ship!” You gotta love this: The Laserlyte Pistol Bayonet. (The seller, BTW, takes GunPal payments). Take a few minutes to check out Willow Bend’s more practical gun gear.)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“We must reject the idea that every time a law’s broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions.” – Ronald Wilson Reagan 



Note from JWR:

I’m pleased to report that another retreat listed on SurvivalRealty.com property has just sold. (The “Turn-key” retreat near Sandpoint, Idaho.) Be sure to check out the many new SurvivalRealty.com listings, including properties in Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. Also, be advised that the seller of a unique underground home in Colorado has re-listed the property, at a reduced price. We are very pleased that our “spin-off” web site has been so successful in connecting retreat property buyers and sellers. If you have a property for sale that has retreat potential, then please consider advertising it on SurvivalRealty. Full description listings with photos cost just $30 per month, and we charge NO sales commissions! You keep 100% of the proceeds.



Letter Re: Retreat Security: I Am Your Worst Nightmare

I was thinking about the “I Am Your Worst Nightmare” post as I worked in my vegetable garden, preparing it for Spring. I wonder how long it would be until the Looters evolved their strategy
to the next levels, as follows:

Looter+1: Don’t kill everyone, leave some alive to loot again later.

Looter+2: Plan to scare, rather than kill, your victims, so that they can continue farming and provide for your needs later. Dead victims can’t work.

Looter+3: Claim a territory and collect “protection” money/goods from the people in your territory. Tell them that in return for only taking one-third of everything they produce, you will protect them from “looters” who will take it all and kill them in the bargain. Punish anyone who holds out.

Looter+4: Call your loot taxes. You are now a government.

Regards, – Bear

JWR Replies: Your observation is astute. In many nations, there is not much difference between “the government” and the bandito “Señor Calvera.” (You may remember the bandit leader in The Magnificent Seven–which was the American remake of Akira Kurosawa’s classic film Seven Samurai.)



Letter Re: Comments of Storing Coffee and Grinding Whole Wheat Flour

Jim:
Buryl misses the point to storing coffee. Freeze dried blocks of ground coffee wrapped in aluminum foil pouches and vacuum packed is my preferred method, but I also store instant coffee crystals.

I recommend not getting addicted to coffee. I can take it or leave it. But it is a wonderful trade/barter item. Especially after six months or a year or more have gone by after the SHTF and there is no coffee to be found anywhere, a stash of coffee will be good as gold with its purchasing power. Storing jerked meats and especially honey as barter items are favorites of mine. Of course one has to be ultra careful who he trades food and ammo with. I would never trade with anyone I didn’t know or not from my home area.

I also recommend stockpiling ammo, especially 22 Long Rifle (LR) ammo, because I think it will become the currency post SHTF. It is light, easily portable, and you can carry a bunch of it. If each cartridge has about the same purchasing power after the SHTF as a dollar has now. And with the scarcity of such ammo and supplies post-SHTF, I think 22 LR ammo will be worth its equivalent weight in silver. People that now can’t afford to stockpile gold can still stockpile ammo, especially 22 LR ammo at 3 or 4 cents per round. – R.L.



Economics and Investing:

Chris in West Virginia was the first of several readers that mentioned Glenn Beck’s recent explanation of inflation, interest rates, and the history of destroyed currencies. It was a basic primer for the sheeple. I just wish he had taken a couple of minutes to explain the money multiplier effect of fractional reserve banking. Ehh! Probably too complicated for many television viewers to grasp.

The latest from Dr. Housing Bubble: Option ARMs Enter the Eye of the Hurricane: The $189 Billion Recast Problem Targeted Directly at the California Housing Market. Of $189 Billion in Securitized Option ARMs $109 Billion in California.

Norfolk Southern Railroad’s profit slides as traffic remains slow. Revenues fell across all of the railroad’s business segments. (Thanks to Damon for the link.)

GG noticed this piece by John Browne in The Asia Times: Inflation by Stealth

Items from The Economatrix:

Nine Banks Seized this Week, Total Up to 115. The fourth largest failure was California National Bank in Los Angeles

Are Things Really Getting Better?

New Home Sales Take Surprise Tumble

$8,000 Home Credit Still in Play Critic says government spent $43,000 for each sale that occurred because of the program

Investors Rush Back into Stocks as Economy Grows

Economy Growing But Recovery Could Be at Risk


Consumers Returning to Big Brands

Crude Prices Near $80 Again, Retail Gas Up Again JWR Adds: But wholesale inventories are very high, so expect prices to fall soon!

MetLife Posts 3Q Loss on Investment Losses

First-Time Jobless Claims Drop Less than Expected

Banks Cut Emergency Borrowing from Federal Reserve

US Economy: Consumers, Government Propel Growth; Economy Up for First in a Year

Mish: Houston is Bankrupt (As are California, Oregon, and Pension Plans in General)

Dollar, Yen Tumble as Growth in US Economy Spurs Risk Demand

Sprint Loses Nearly $500 Million in Third Quarter

Are US Treasuries About to Rally … Or Crash?

World Markets Fall After Weak US Consumer Report

Soros on the World Financial Crisis
His message: China must be part of the New World Order



Odds ‘n Sods:

Tree house man lives off the land. I think he needs to spend less time in the hammock, and more time cutting firewood for the coming winter!

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Other news from England: Bullets used by British soldiers ‘too small to defeat Taliban’. Not only is 5.56 too small, but the entire Enfield L85 (aka SA80) bullpup development and procurement program has been a foul-up from day one. I suppose that it is time to break out some L1A1s from their war reserve arsenal. That is, assuming they still have a few hundred thousand of them… There may not be that many. Many thousands of L1A1 parts kits that came into the US in the early 1990s. The rifles were sold off by the short-sighted British government. Their full-auto receivers were slagged, but thankfully all of the rest of the parts were then legal to sell in the US as surplus. (A tip of the hat to P.D. of the link.)

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Reader Ron S. suggested a great YouTube Video: From Cherry Log to Country Chair: making furniture with hand tools. BTW, every self-sufficient carpenter should own a shingle froe, a hardwood mallet (“maul”), an adze, and a draw knife. For any serious production, a home-built shaving horse (treadle woodworking clamp) is also a must.





Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 25 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) and C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $350 value.)

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 25 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



The Dumpster List, by InfoRodeo

Because of our financial constraints, aggravated by the economy and rural area we now live, my family cannot afford to own a second “retreat” home, nor do we have much land on which to build a shed or store much of anything. As a boy, my parents didn’t have much money, and through a mix of my dad’s “fix it or make do” attitude, the scout motto “be prepared” and my newfound need for better frugality, I’ve made a kind of checklist that every non-food purchase my wife and I make must go through, and it’s jokingly called the Dumpster list. Each point of the dumpster list should be met as well as possible, if that point is applicable. The list helps us stretch our dollars, limit our output of refuse, and choose items that are easier to transport and maintain should we be forced to evacuate or relocate during an emergency event.

DURABILITY.  I try to purchase things that are built strong and proven strong. I buy denim or rip-stop pants. A lot of items I purchase are “military surplus” or Mil-spec items, because they are meant to take rough treatment and last a long time. Sometimes an item can be made stronger/more resistant/durable for a small charge. Having some sort of puncture-stop material added to our bike tires or spending the extra money for some sort of hard-shell case for a piece of essential gear would be examples of adding durability.  

UTILITY
rather than Fashion. Cargo pants are not always in style, but the extra pockets and (often) durable nature make them useful. Military-style clothing, available from surplus stores, is usually made in “large, medium, small”-type sizes, but have straps, drawstrings and Velcro to make them a perfect fit. Hiking or “combat” boots may look a little out of place or extreme, but they are made for walking and climbing, are waterproof, and often breathe just as well as tennis shoes. If you get some with steel toes, you are eliminating a lot of toe-injuries that could come from tripping, dropping something, or kicking old logs or stones when trying to carve out a shelter or forage for food. A junky old diesel truck might be ugly, but offers several benefits over a nice new car or SUV.

MULTIPLE USE
. Our 72-hour kits (which go in the vehicles whenever we go somewhere) contain several items, most of which have multiple uses. I always carry a “Leatherman”-style multi-tool, for example, because I frequently need a knife to cut something with, a screwdriver to tighten something with, or pliers/wire cutters to bend or trim cable or wire. I carry an “entrenching tool” that works as a shovel, rudimentary saw, and pick. I large iron Wok is my favorite cooking utensil, because its depth allows me to boil water or heat oil, but wide mouth makes it easy to also cook things that need to be more spread out, like eggs or fish fillets. Its handles make it easy to be tied to a pack when we go hiking. When I buy my heavy-duty clothing, I try to choose colors or styles that allow them to double as nice church pants or everyday wear. I wear “web belts” because they adjust to my comfort with more precision than a regular hole-punched leather belt, and this adjustability allows them to be useful for other things, like tying down sleeping bags, bundles of wood, or to be used as tourniquets. The “teeth” in the buckle are also suitable for emergency scraping and small-scale sawing.

PORTABILITY
. Strong but light materials are a great blessing. My primary firearms are lightweight but strong. One of the few camping items we ever splurged on were our ultra-lightweight sleeping bags, because they can fit into a very small space. Though we have no unrealistic plans of “heading to the hills” with the rest of civilization in a TEOTWAWKI situation, keeping our load light helps us be prepared for last-minute relocation or evacuation in the event of an emergency. Having lightweight material in a pack also greatly extends your ability to trek longer distances because it puts less strain on your body (which is essential for those who are “out of shape” or injured.

REPAIRABILTY/SALVAGEABILITY
. I try to acquire items that are easy to fix or have easy-to find spare parts. Where I live, for example, there are not a lot of BMW dealers, so it doesn’t make much sense for our only car to be a BMW, even if we can afford it. It takes to long to receive or locate parts, and some part sizes are made for tools I don’t own. The same goes for old fashioned “tube radios” or other items made from parts no longer manufactured/manufactured only by specialty shops. Fabric items (tents, packs, tarps) should be resistant to mildew but also easy to repair with sewing items on hand. Items that are less likely to rust are obviously preferred, but I also try to stay away from weak plastics that might break or chip (because plastic is more difficult to repair than wood/,metal for the average person). I try to learn the “ins and outs’ of every new item we get, so it can be repaired if need be.

Is it TRADEABLE? Will the item be of value for trade in an emergency situation? Some things like ammunition, gasoline, food and other supplies are good bartering tools. Other items, like vehicles, firearms and entertainment items can be “traded in” or sold at a depreciated rate (or, if you’re lucky, at an appreciated rate) when you hit hard times, need to leave town, or simply no longer need the item. We do our best not to fool ourselves into thinking anything – including firearms – are an “investment”, because it is safer to be prepared for a bad day and pleased by a good one than it is to be unprepared.  

ENERGY
. What kind of batteries does it need? Can it be powered from a 12 VDC car adapter? Solar power? What kind of fuel does the vehicle use? Will it run on something else? What is the likelihood of that fuel/battery/power source being available in an emergency? How long will the battery/fuel last before it goes bad? What are the best ways to store them? Perhaps the most useful question: is there a hand-powered version available instead? If the item is battery powered (a flashlight, for example), I try to find one that is most efficient in its power usage.

REDUNDANCY
. When possible, I like to acquire two or more of certain items, especially if I like them or they tend to wear out after awhile (clothing, boots). Having duplicate equipment also allows you to use one for parts if parts are unavailable elsewhere. Some items are also good for barter. Others are good to leave at home while you take the other on the road. Some of my firearms purchases have been driven by the type of ammunition for this purpose – I’d rather be able to use what I have in multiple weapons than to have to keep multiple types of ammunition stocked.

I don’t include “Price” in the checklist because I’ve learned (contrary to what my parents tried to teach me) that most of the time, paying more for a high quality item saves more money in the long run than buying a cheap item, which have to be repaired or replaced it frequently. As long as we aren’t charging it to a credit card (or creating other debt) and are living within our means, I try not to think much about price. We also do most of our non-immediate shopping on the internet, because it is easier to find exactly what we need than making do with what we find at the local hardware or department store, and the prices (including shipping) are much better. 

By running our potential purchases through the Dumpster list, we’ve actually modified some other areas of our life, and it has helped us to generate less trash, have less blinking-light/electronic noise toys for our children, and I haven’t had to buy any new clothes in over a year now. Though I thought there would be more potential for “hard work” as a result, we’ve found that by being more picky about our purchases, as well as giving them proper maintenance, we’ve actually had a lot less break-downs to deal with and our “free” time has actually increased.



Letter Re: Comments of Storing Coffee and Grinding Whole Wheat Flour

Sir:
I suggest kicking the coffee habit. Coffee offers very little actual nutritional value. It is mostly a comfort food. While that is important, consider the drawbacks:

1. Sleep pattern changes
2. Increased anxiety
3. Staining of the teeth
4. Effects on pregnancy and menopause
5. Cholesterol (French Press method can use trap cafestol and kahweol which may raise LDL levels that paper filters capture)

Regular use may lead to “habituation”; that is, no net benefit from use but, rather, a negative effect if the drug is not taken.

Too much caffeine can produce restlessness, nausea, headache, tense muscles, sleep disturbances, and cardiac arrhythmia (irregular heartbeats). Because caffeine increases the production of stomach acid it may worsen ulcer symptoms or cause acid reflux (“heartburn”).

I’m sure there will be plenty of people who respond that coffee is healthy and has many benefits. I’m skeptical. – Buryl



Economics and Investing:

The credit derivatives plot thickens: New York Fed’s Secret Choice to Pay for Swaps Hits Taxpayers. (Thanks to David V. for the link.)

Russia delays sale of 50 tons of gold. (A hat tip to Trey for the link, by way of MineWeb.)

GG sent this: Stimulus jobs overstated by thousands

SurvivalBlog’s Editor at Large Michael Z. Williamson spotted this New York Times piece: Hard Work, No Pay. It includes this memorable quote: “I am not unemployable. I have a master’s of fine arts and spent two years in the Peace Corps.” Mike’s comment: “Er…I thought that was the definition of unemployable!”

Ben L. liked this article: Gold Market Reaching The Breaking Point

Items from The Economatrix:

Gold to Rise to $2,000 Amid “Massive” Inflation, Superfund Says

Paul Craig Roberts: Are You Ready for the Next Financial and Economic Crisis? “Evidence that the US is a failed state is piling up faster than I can record it. One conclusive hallmark of a failed state is that the crooks are inside the government, using government to protect and to advance their private interests.”

Goldie Sachs Defends Controversial Trading Practices

Recession Declared Over But Job Losses Mounting

Home Foreclosures Jump in Previously Untouched Cities

Credit Card Hikes Raise Congresses’ Blood Pressure

Unemployed Tap their 401ks



Odds ‘n Sods:

A new 2010 Survival Calendar is now available. I was delighted to see that the designer included one page devoted to SurvivalBlog. Check it out! OBTW, you can use the coupon code “survivalblog” (without the quotes) to get a $4 discount on checkout.

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Brian H. wrote me to mention that Gene Logsdon’s classic 1977 book “Small-Scale Grain Raising” is back in print in an updated paperback edition. Be sure to order the Second edition.

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Reader HPD sent this: Cash for Clunkers costs taxpayers $24,000 per car. And Damon sent this, on this article, with a similar theme: The Stimulus Saved 650,000 Jobs? I’m Not Impressed. ($230,769 to create each job? Only a Federal bureaucrat could call that a success.)

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Wal-Mart Starts Selling Caskets, Urns On-Line. At least they are made in the USA, unlike most of the other products sold at what my brother calls “Great Wall of China Mart”.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“China is now a big buyer of gold and silver for their banks. Chinese television has been recommending that everyone should go to the bank to buy gold and silver. That’s 1.3 billion people getting propagandized. This is a major bullish factor for gold. Perhaps the bankers have met their match.” – Howard J. Ruff