Reader B.B. sent this: U.S. sees shortage of ammunition. I’m glad that I bought most of mine in the early 1990s. Back then, military surplus 7.62mm NATO ball was just $5 per box, if you shopped around.
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Damon mentioned this article in Backwoods Home magazine: Consider the 20-gauge shotgun, by Massad Ayoob
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KT flagged this: Russian sniper rifles take aim at American market
“I love the man that can smile in trouble, that can gather strength from distress, and grow brave by reflection. ‘Tis the business of little minds to shrink; but he whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves his conduct, will pursue his principles unto death.” – Thomas Paine, December 19, 1776
I just got word from James Talmage Stevens, the author of the book Making the Best of Basics – Family Preparedness Handbook (just greatly expanded and revised, for the 11th Edition), that he is extending the special sale price on the book, just for SurvivalBlog readers. If you wait another day, the price will go up by $5, so order your copy before midnight, tonight. (Tuesday.)
The following are the results of our recent poll of SurvivalBlog readers about favorite movies with survival and preparedness themes. Each one listed below got at least three votes:
Defiance
The Edge (Available through Netflix, as a DVD and “Play it Now” streaming.)
The Flight of the Phoenix
The Matrix Series (The Matrix/ The Matrix Reloaded/ The Matrix Revolutions)
The Road Warrior and Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome
The Terminator
There were also two votes each for these comic honorable mentions: Tremors
Mr. Rawles,
I am a retired Army warrant officer working for the Army teaching Electronic Warfare and Signal Intelligence. I only started reading your blog last week. It’s addictive, but slightly disturbing.
Having worked for the Army for 27 years in a number of different failed countries I may have a unique perspective on survival that I would like to share with your readers. I believe most of the “survivalist community” is vastly underestimating the impact that other humans are going to have on their plans. Hunkering down and waiting for everyone to die off is a simplistic plan and I believe has almost no chance of working. You may be able to hide your retreat, but you can’t hide the land it sits on. That land itself may become a scarce commodity if the US transitions to an agrarian economy.
Food is the key resource. Most communities are at risk because they simply don’t have enough calories stored to get them through any kind of crisis. But, storage is no more than limited capital to allow people time to grow more food. Food production requires land….if your retreat is sitting on farmable land, it will be a scarce resource.
Carrying capacity of the US using non-petroleum farming techniques is far lower than most of your readers probably think. Also, most areas of the US, especially cities, don’t have anywhere near enough farm-able land to go back to some kind of agrarian pattern. Without public infrastructure and modern transportation, we are going to experience a huge die-off caused mostly by starvation. In a total collapse scenario without immediate restoration of the economy, basically everyone who lives in a city is doomed unless they can take over some kind of farm land.
If you live in an area without enough farm land, you will be a “have not”. Period. I don’t care how much food you have stored in your basement.
Here is my key point. These teeming millions will not just starve and go away. I believe that anyone who thinks they can defend a working farm against raiders is deluding themselves.
1. People are dangerous. They are the most dangerous animal on earth. You can never lose sight of that! In almost any society breakdown scenario you can think of, you will be surrounded by starving predators that are much more dangerous than tigers. In the USA, every one of them (or at least the vast majority) will be armed with firearms. The ones currently without firearms will obtain them by any means necessary including looting government armories. These are thinking-breathing and highly motivated enemies.
2. Raiders, defined as “outlaw looting groups” may be a threat for a very short period, but I really don’t see groups of more than 4-6 ever forming…they will be quickly replaced by much larger groups of “citizens” doing essentially the same things, but much better armed and organized.
An Example: A few hours after Albania’s political crisis in 1998, (which was caused by a national lottery scam), almost every adult male in the country procured an AKM from government stocks. Armories were the first targets looted. I flew into Tirana packing a pistol and a sack of money, naively thinking I would be able to move around the country and defend myself. What a laugh. Everyone had me outgunned, and the vast majority of them had military training of some sort. I never got out of the capital city. Every road seemed to have roadblocks every few miles, blocked by armed local citizens.
3. Without central authority, people don’t just starve and go away. They form their own polities (governments). These polities are often organized around town or city government or local churches. They may call it a city counsel or a committee or a senate. The bottom line is, “We The People” will do whatever “We” have to do to survive. And that specifically includes taking your storage goods.
4. When (not if) a polity forms near you, you had better be part of that process. If not, you will be looked upon as a “resource” instead of a member of the community. The local polity will pass a resolution (or whatever) and “legally” confiscate your goods. If you resist, they will crush you. They will have the resources of a whole community to draw upon including weapons, vehicles, manpower, electronics, tear gas, etc. Every scrap of government owned equipment and weaponry will be used, by someone. Anyone who plans to hold out against that kind of threat is delusional.
5. The local polity that forms is almost certainly going to make mistakes. Some of them are lethal blunders. Odds are, the locals will probably not have given a lot of serious thought to facing long term survival. They will squander resources and delay implementing necessary actions (like planting more food or working together to defend a harvest). They may even decide to take in thousands of refugees from nearby cities, thereby almost insuring their own longer term starvation.
A much better approach is to be an integral part of the community and use the combined resources of the community to defend all of your resources together. This would be much easier if a high percentage of the community were like minded folks who were committed to sharing and cooperating. Because any community with food is likely going to have to somehow survive while facing even larger polities, like nearby cities, counties or even state governments. Don’t expect to face a walking hoard of lightly armed, starving individuals. Expect to face a professional, determined army formed by a government of some kind.
A small farming community can probably support a few outsiders, but not very many. The community will need to politically deal with outside polities or they will face a war they can’t win. Hiding the fact that you are self sufficient is going to be hard. You can’t hide farm land.
Defending your resources against the nearby city will be even harder. You may be able to save the community by buying protection with surplus food…if you have prepared for that. You may indeed have to fight, but stalling that event for even a year could mean the difference between living and being overwhelmed. In any case, your community needs to go into the crisis with a plan. You may be able to shape that plan if you become a community leader instead of a “resource”. With Very Kind Regards, – R.J.
JWR Replies: You’ve summed up some essential truths quite succinctly. Your points square nicely with the scenario in my first novel (“Patriots”). It also matches my premise of gemeinschaft kampfgeist, in the context of cohesion in the “we/they paradigm.”
Mr. Rawles,
I would like to hopefully answer some questions on retreat communications. I have been a ham radio operator since I was 11 and am the third generation of hams in my family. I was recently asked by multiple people to help them come up with a list of equipment that they could buy to have decent communications in there planning. These people are not hams and don’t know much about radios. After giving it some thought I have come up with a list of things that can be purchased on today’s market that should cover basic communications needs. I know that there are many hams out there that will disagree with this list, but they need to keep in mind that these choices aren’t for the best DX radio but are chosen for reliability, value, and ease of use.
First I would like to mention that it is illegal to transmit on an amateur radio frequency without the proper license, and that just having a good radio and not knowing how to use it is like having a rifle and not knowing how to load it. No amount of high tech gear is a valuable as good knowledge.
HF TRANSCEIVER: For a new HF radio I recommend the Alinco DX70-TH. This is HF plus 6 meters. It doesn’t have all the fancy bells and whistles as some better radios but is rugged, reasonably priced, and very easy to use. For a backup I recommend buying one of the older entry level radios such as the Yaesu FT757GX, the Icom IC-725, or the Kenwood TS-140s. These radios can be bought used online at places like eBay or QRZ.com. Having an All-mode general coverage receive HF transceiver lets you listen to signals from around the world and transmit on the amateur bands in an emergency.
VHF TRANSCEIVER: I recommend the Yaesu FT 2800M or FT 2900M. Both radios are rugged, simple, easy to operate radios that you can purchase new for 150.00. These are also the radios that 90% of amateur radio emergency responders use. It gives general coverage receive on most of the VHF spectrum, and has a built in weather radio.
Citizen’s Band: I also suggest getting a basic CB radio. Any of the brand name 40 channel CBs will do. CB is one of the most common and easy to use radios available, but they are very limited. one thing to keep in mind is that because of their ease of use, and availability they will probably be the choice of the lowest common denominator. [JWR Adds: For the beast range versatility, and a hair more security, get an SSB-capable model.]
SCANNERS: A decent scanner is also a good tool, a simple Radio Shack scanner can quickly scan a large number of frequencies saving precious time. [JWR Adds: Be sure to get one of the later models that can demodulate trunked traffic.]
FRS: These portable radios are a good tool for communications in a small group. They are legal to use by any one much like a CB. I will not mention any certain brand or model, just some features. Make sure that they are the kind that recharges in a docking station and also use common batteries. Also look for ones that are weather resistant. I would have at least one of these for every member of your group.
ANTENNAS: I will not get into debate about why one antenna is better than another. I will only give specific suggestions of what to get to have reliable communications. HF antenna; an off center fed dipole for 80 meters, and the comet CHA-250B vertical. VHF; Diamond X59A. Scanner; Radio Shack discone antenna. CB; Radio Shack mobile whip with ground plane kit.
ACCESSORIES: Some needed accessories are a 12 volt 20 amp power supply [such as those made by Astron], extra batteries, and 50 ohm coax cable.
Most of these things can be purchased at Ham Radio Outlet online, or at your local Radio Shack. Even with this list of equipment if you can’t use them then they are useless. Also keep in mind that all of these forms of communications are open, non-encoded transmissions, so always exercise good COMSEC. Also, always store all radio equipment disconnected from the antenna, and in an EMP-proof container. 73s – Tim
Hello Mr. Rawles;
Recently I have seen lists recommending the storage of charcoal lighter fluid. I would like to suggest the use of a charcoal starter chimney. You will not need to use and store the lighter fluid and worry about running out of it. With the chimney all you need to store is a supply of newspaper. It takes just a sheet or two of newspaper wadded up to start the charcoal and in short order your charcoal will be ready to use. You can find the chimneys on eBay or go to the Internet and find instructions for making your own out of a large metal coffee can. We store our charcoal in a large garbage can in the garage. We store old newspapers (but not the slick pages) in a large paper grocery bag. The newspapers are good for not just the charcoal starter but can be used as mulch in the garden as well. It is hard to find the paper grocery bags now but our Kroger’s still have some. The paper grocery bags can be used to make a starter for your wood stove or fireplace. Just gather small twigs, pinecones or bark pieces in the about half of the bag and roll down the top. Place the bag under the wood and light and in no time your fire is going strong. If you don’t have a supply of paper bags and wood trash you can store fire starter sticks. We have used the “StarterLoggs” for our wood stove and now for our fireplace. We find that this brand works well and we don’t have to use the whole piece to start the fire, just maybe 1/3 to 1/2 of a stick works fine. I just bought a box of 24 for $10 at Wal-Mart. Best Regards, – Glennis
HPD sent us this piece by Mish Shedlock: A Remarkable Comparison: Affordable Student Loans vs. Affordable Housing
Mr. Smith recommended this BBC audio clip: Fed Advisor Warns of the Next Financial Crisis: Mass Inflation
Chad S. flagged this: Geithner Says Commercial Real Estate Woes Won’t Spark Crisis
GG sent this: CIT Board Approves Chapter 11 Filing; Government Infusion of $2.3 Billion at Risk
Items from The Economatrix:
The Next Currency to Crash: The Japanese Yen
Think Tank: Graduate Unemployment to Soar
China Warns of World Slump if Stimulus Withdrawn
Stiglitz Says US Recession “Nowhere Near” End After GDP Jump
US Housing “Recovery” in Bubble Territory
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Deflation Fears as Eurozone and US Credit Contracts
Jeff B. sent us this: The one man army: How a Cambridge-educated botanist fought a three-year war against 4,000 Japanese troops. Here is a link to a book about Chapman: Jungle Soldier: The True Story of Freddy Spencer Chapman
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Tom B. mentioned this: DEQ issues well-water warnings
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Rick W. sent this news item from Utah: Mock disaster ‘eye-opening’ for Centerville responders
“How rare is gold? If you could gather together all the gold mined in recorded history, melt it down, and pour it into one giant cube, it would measure only about eighteen yards across! That’s all the gold owned by every government on earth, plus all the gold in private hands, all the gold in rings, necklaces, chains, and gold art. That’s all the gold used in tooth fillings, in electronics, in coins and bars. It’s everything that exists above ground now, or since man learned to extract the metal from the earth. All of it can fit into one block the size of a single house. It would weigh about 91,000 tons – less than the amount of steel made around the world in an hour. That’s rare.” – Daniel M. Kehrer
I just heard that the unabridged audiobook of my novel “Patriots”
A few days ago, The Telegraph reported:
“An asteroid that exploded in the Earth’s atmosphere with the energy of three Hiroshima bombs this month has reignited fears about our planet’s defenses against space impacts. On 8 October, the rock crashed into the atmosphere above South Sulawesi, Indonesia. The asteroid was around 20 meters across and hit the Earth’s atmosphere at 45,000 mph. The blast was heard by monitoring stations 10,000 miles away, according to a report by scientists at the University of Western Ontario. Scientists are concerned that it was not spotted by any telescopes, and that had it been larger it could have caused a disaster. Luckily, due to the height of the explosion – estimated at between 15 and 20 km (nine to 12 miles) above sea level – no damage was caused on the ground.”
Later reports mentioned and estimated 5 to 10 meter diameter for the asteroid. Let’s consider the implications of this event. If this had happened in the skies over a First World nation, or if the explosion had taken places at ground level (or near ground level, a la the 1908 Tunguska event), then there would be a huge clamor and calls for early asteroid impact prediction, and greater preparedness. But since this took place above what most consider a backwater nation, and there was no visible damage on the ground to photograph, this news story was resigned to “minor headline” status. And what if the object had been 100 meters in diameter, instead of 20?
We’ve previously discussed asteroids with Earth-crossing orbits–also known as Near Earth Objects (NEOs)— and the consequences of potential impacts in SurvivalBlog.
Asteroid impacts are one of those “low likelihood but high disruption” events. The chances of one occurring in our lifetimes is relatively low, but if one were to happen, the implications would be huge. In anticipation of future asteroid impacts, here are some factors to consider:
I have been studying the threat of asteroid impacts for many years. NEOs represent a “wild card”scenario. Since a fairly complete orbital path tracking database probably won’t exist for 20+ years, this threat will remain an imponderable for the foreseeable future. Until a fully-populated database is developed, this will remain a quasi-voodoo science. The Indonesian event illustrates just how easy it is to get blind-sided. And even after we have complete tracking data, it will be decades longer before we start to proactively develop a program to “nudge” the larger NEO asteroids into safer orbits.
But again, keep in mind that this is one of those “low actuarial risk/high consequence” events. Plan accordingly.
Mr. Rawles,
I consider myself adequately prepared for whatever events that may happen in regards to a break down of society. I live out in the country and have never been one to rely on local government or social infrastructure for immediate needs. I’ve had too many occasions where I have had to fend for myself because of a tornado, snowstorm, flood or other event that causes disruption in services. I have a good supply of storage food from canning, dehydrating and past hunting seasons to last for a while. I’ve got all the hand tools necessary to keep going if it comes to that. Also have ordered from Vic at Safecastle, got some stuff from Ready Made Resources and Lehman’s along with Sportsman’s Guide, Cheaper Than Dirt and a bunch of other places. These are items that I may need when the SHTF. Overall, I consider myself and my family mostly self-sufficient until I consider the magnitude of life without electric power for an undetermined period of time. My biggest concern is potable water.
I have three ponds on my property, two small ones and one that is fairly large. We have a well for water and a septic for a sewer system. We have a Berkey filter system that I have used in the past when power has been out for an extended period of time to purify pond water. The way we do it is, scoop the water out of a pond in 5 gallon buckets, filter it through some T-shirts into a pot, boil the water then pour into the Berkey and after it is filtered, drop in some bleach and we have good clean drinking water. A lot of work for drinking water but an absolute necessity when faced with a prolonged period of power loss. I got to thinking a while back that there must be a better way to get drinking water than from my ponds when I have a perfectly good well.
I did some research on hand pumps for a water well and saw that it is possible to incorporate a hand pump along with my electric pump. I already have a well bucket that I got from Ready Made Resources and it works great but I felt that a hand pump would be even better. I work private security and as you can imagine business has been booming lately so I don’t have much free time. I called a local water well driller and they quoted me $2,500 to install a hand pump to my well. Way too much for my taste. Another place quoted me $1,250 minimum. Still beyond my budget. I decided it was up to me to get it done.
After a ton of research, I decided to pop the cap off my well to find out the static water level in my well. It was a huge effort to get the cap off because it hadn’t been off for many years. After a bunch of WD-40 I was able to get the bolts loose. Once the cap was off I sunk a rope into the well and found gratefully that the water level was only 9 feet below the well pipe (We have a high water table as you can imagine with three ponds on my property). Research showed me that a shallow well pump would pump water from a depth of 20 feet. A quick search showed that shallow pumps were within my price range. I ended up ordering a Heller-Aller Pitcher Pump from Lehman’s for about $250. The pump is plumbed for a 1-1/4” drop pipe. I got the PVC drop pipe, brass couplings, foot valve and male fittings from Lowe’s for about $60. The PVC pipe came in 10′ sections and I got 3 pieces. I struggled putting 2 of the pieces together with couplers with help from a block of pine wood and a sledge for a total of 20′ of pipe. Thinking ahead, I added a large turnbuckle with a big eyelet about 2′ down the top of the pipe attached with two U-bolts that I attached a hooked tow rope to use to tie off onto a fixed object so if the pipe got away from me it wouldn’t fall into the black hole of the well where I couldn’t retrieve it. I’ll save the extra 10′ section to add when the water drops below a point my 20′ section doesn’t pull the water up.
With the drop pipe finished, I focused on mounting the hand pump to my well pipe. I had two sections of pressure treated 2×4 cut to 2′ lengths that I bolted to the base of the pump with 5/16”x2-½ stainless bolts to stabilize the pump on my 6” well pipe. With the wood base attached to the pump I was ready.
Putting the 20′ section of drop pipe down the 6” well pipe was not as bad as you may think, it only weighed about 15 pounds. I had the rope attached to the turnbuckle so I wasn’t worried about dropping it. When I got the pipe into place my wife held the pump with wood base about 2 feet over the pipe so I could screw the drop pipe brass male fitting to the pump. (A note to consider – When the pump was manufactured, they sprayed the red paint onto the threads that the drop pipe screws into. If you don’t remove this paint before installing – you’ll never get it connected.) Once we finally got it connected, I had to prime the pump from the top while we pumped it to get the water flowing. Once the water started flowing I realized that $500 (as opposed to $1,200+) I had just spent was probably the best money I ever spent as far as my survival preparations went. The pump spout even has a notch built in to hang a bucket. What a wonderful thing.
I’m praying for your family due to your recent loss of your wife. A good friend of mine is music director at our church and his favorite song is – When We All Get to Heaven What a Day of Rejoicing It Will Be! Keep that in mind, my friend. – Jim W. in Indiana
I just met this past weekend with a group of ” preparedness folk.” They are on a farm about 30 miles from here. I have become interested in the subject after reading One Second After (a New York Times best seller, highly recommended!) and some writings by James Wesley, Rawles. I was surprised at who they were and the mindset I encountered. A few observations:
1) The root idea is that whether or not some disaster hits, we are far too dependent on a very fragile and tenuous energy and distribution grid. Raising your own chickens, goats, vegetables, rabbits, turkeys, pigs and cows is preferable (and more nutritious and tasty!) to standing around in a Kroger (think “post-Katrina”) looking at the empty aisles.
2) They were “green” but green in a good way, and not the fashionable mindless silliness coming out of the “environmentally conscious” crowd. (Sorry if my contempt shows here)
I am talking about using a local stream to turn a box of old alternators from junked cars to produce current to charge batteries, building a steam fired boiler to run a generator, and lots of other cool ideas that are scavenged from junkyards…., including using a scrapped walk in cooler from a convenience store for a chicken coop (no insulation needed, and less heat source needed during cold weather).
3) The mark of an “advanced” society is division of labor, with the dependency on each other coming from specialization of labor being more efficient and less costly. However, we have evolved into a society of urban dwellers who produce nothing necessary for root survival needs. Cities are extremely dependent on everything being trucked in, and the ones who make the most money are the ones most efficient in distribution rather than production (think “Wal-Mart”). If that distribution system is disrupted, due to a failure of the electrical grid or a fuel supply disruption, we would be helpless. These folks recognize that.
4) I did not meet any tin foil hat folks, which surprised me. There were realtors, veterinarians, an auto parts distributor, a programmer, a cop, and a contract security guy (a “Blackwater” type, although he never worked for Xe). They were just normal folks living their lives, but concerned about the potential for future instability of a calamitous nature.
5) I was surprised at the political make-up of the group. I expected to see a bunch of rabid Republicans, fearful of antichrist Obama and the New World Order, blah, blah, blah. Rather, they were amazingly cynical of any politics, and were just as critical of Reagan (for different reasons) as Obama. Their attitude was more that of folks just trying to live their lives while being confident that their best shot at any change would come from being fiercely independent and doing what they could to remain so.
6) I was probably the biggest Bible Thumper out there. No religious zealotry at all. In my life, I have encountered a lot of religious whack jobs. I expected this crowd to be a magnet for them. It wasn’t
7) I was also surprised about their attitude about guns. I expected to find a bunch of hyperventilating folks screaming out “Molon Labe!” as a password or something to enter the farm. Instead, I encountered a crowd of mostly ex-military guys who understood that guns are tools. They all hunt (mostly deer, but also squirrel, turkey, dove, and some varmints), and they all believe that they have a duty and a right to protect their families themselves and their freedoms and rights against all who would challenge them. Their attitude was that you would no more expect to defend rights and freedoms without guns than try to change a tire without a jack. Especially enlightening to me were the remarks of the contract security guy who worked security in Kosovo. Rather than sitting on his pile of weapons fervently wishing for social collapse so he could play “Rambo” or something, he just emphatically declared that if you ever lived in a society where the social order even partially breaks down, you will want to prepare for it here, but no one in his right mind would wish it.
7) The final funny observation is how close these guys are with all the ex-hippie counterculture who have moved south from Chapel Hill as the area has become completely yuppified. In fact, one of the guys there at the group was just a total stoner who had essentially moved down to smoke his own hydroponic, live cheaply, eat his own “organic” produce, and shoot, prepare, and jerk his own venison. The two types of “fringe” groups have a sort of affinity for each other, even if many other ideas are polarized apart.
The whole group of folks were not now living on the farm. There are only three families there. However, they are all affiliated with it and looking to it as a kind of resource/preparedness area in the event of:
1) a major earthquake (we sit on a huge fault line in North Carolina. I never knew that)
2) a failure of the oil distribution system
3) a major currency collapse (my bets are on this one as having the best odds)
4) a major terrorist attack on the US.
5) ….. you fill in the blank.
My wife and I are not moving down there (smile), but we are interested in some people whose ideas about simplicity and “back to nature” mirror what we would like to see ourselves. I think “survival” is an improper goal for a Christian. We are supposed to be “dead” already, having surrendered all this stuff anyway. I do think that “working with your hands so that you may have something to share with those in need” is a proper goal for myself, though. I am looking forward to interacting more with these folk.
Reader D.P.D. mentioned: Signs of a H1N1 mutation? Something is up in Ukraine: “Viral pneumonia…”
Los Angeles County Free H1N1 Vaccination Clinics Overwhelmed
Swine flu prompts hundreds of schools to close
US Emergency Declaration Increases Concern. “…the CDC has reported a low reactor isolate, indicating the virus is evolving away from the vaccine.”
‘National emergency’ for H1N1 no cause for alarm, experts say. Oh, that makes me feel so much better.
Fight Erupts in Line at Nevada Swine Flu Clinic
CDC: 19 Children in US Died of Swine Flu Last Week
WHO Emergency Response Team to Ukraine
US: 10 Million More H1N1 Vaccines Due Next Week
Ukraine Deploys Mobile Military Hospitals in H1N1 Crisis
