Economics and Investing:

I’ve recently been asked by several blog readers and consulting clients about my predictions for the economy for the next few years. Here they are, in a nutshell: The US economy will remain weak for for at least five years. Both the commercial and residential real estate markets are unlikely to recover before 2018, especially as interest rates begin to increase. Noticeable inflation should begin around the Spring of 2011 and will become uncomfortably high by 2012. If the announced Federal income tax and capital gains tax increases do indeed go into effect, they will stifle the economy for the foreseeable future. Continued financial instability in the periphery of the EU will continue to keep the Euro weak versus the Dollar, but in the end, both currencies are doomed. Global credit market chaos will probably continue for several more years, as will the Mother of All Bailouts (MOAB) here in the United States. I’d say that there is a 25% chance of a Dollar Panic and devaluation in the next four years, and a 5% chance of a hyperinflationary Dollar Collapse. But regardless, some inflation is coming. Its severity is difficult to predict. The bull market in precious metals is nowhere near its end. I still predict that spot price of silver will eventually exceed $50 per ounce.

Reader Susan Z. was the first of several readers to mention this: Fed set to downgrade outlook for US.

From The Daily Bell: Desperate to Get US Economy Moving.

Reader American Expatriate (AmEx) sent this: Fighting a Double Dip: What Weapons Does the Fed Have Left?



Odds ‘n Sods:

H.J. wrote to say that he saw this sign at a North Idaho restaurant near the Washington state line: “Show Us Your Wolf Tag, and Your Kids Eat Here Free.”

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D.V.B. in Alabama sent this grim tale: Elderly Couple Dies While Trapped in Home Elevator. D.V.B.’s comments:”What if someone is in an elevator during a power failure or EMP event? Here is a small-scale example of what might happen if you can’t call for help. “

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Several readers sent this for the Doddering, Decrepit, Disjointed and Didactical Dictators Department: Fidel Castro: Obama can avert impending nuclear holocaust.

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R.F.J. sent an article that echoes one that we posted last year: Unusual Abodes: The Grain Bin Home



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“Inflation hasn’t ruined everything. A dime can still be used as a screwdriver. ” – Quoted in P.S. I Love You, compiled by H. Jackson Brown, Jr.



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 30 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Parabellum (Luger ) with 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP projectiles, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $249 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, and B.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and B.) a Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.)

Round 30 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Medicinal Herb Gardening by Mrs. Celena J.

Earlier this year, I received a free packet of Echinacea (Purple Coneflower) from wintersown.org (by the way, if you’re into gardening check them out; they’ll send you 10 packets of free seeds for the cost of a SASE).  When I saw the seed packet, I remembered that Echinacea is used to reduce the duration of colds and flu.  I began seriously considering and researching medicinal plant gardening.  Having such a garden would be so useful in surviving numerous catastrophes, not to mention the possible money saver it could be during a recession that’s going to last who-knows-how-long!  Of course, not everything can be easily cured with plants but I do believe one reason God gave us so many varieties was to help us overcome illnesses and other afflictions.  

Below, I’ve compiled a table of some of the medicinal plants that seem the most useful and will grow in the United States.  Since most of these are herbs, unless otherwise mentioned, the plant is an herb.  Most of these plants have been used for thousands of years by civilizations all over the world.  Some of them are even mentioned in the Bible.  Many of them are very beautiful and will make a lovely ornamental garden even if you decide never to to use them medicinally.  At the bottom of this article, I’ve written short descriptions on how to actually use the herbs.  I was clueless when I first began researching and hope that what I’ve discovered can be useful to many of you. May God bless your gardening endeavors, whether medicinal or otherwise!

Common Medicinal Plants and Their Uses

Aloe Vera – Treats dermatitis, dry skin, and burns.  This is a succulent plant which grows well in Arizona and other southwestern states. 

Arnica – Do not eat this!  It’s poisonous but can be used as a cream to treat sprains, bruises, and pulled muscles.  A very beautiful flowering plant that resembles a yellow daisy.

Basil  – Treats diabetes, stress, and asthma.  It is an anti-oxidant and helps your body absorb manganese (which strengthens your bones).

Bay Laurel – Treats migraines, infections, ulcers, and high blood sugar.  Can be rubbed onto sprains and bruises to treat them.  Also keeps garden pests (bugs) away. 

Catnip – Soothes coughs.

Chamomile – Treats stress. A sleep aid.

Chrysanthemum/Feverfew – Treats migraines, fevers, and chills.  Beautiful flowering plant.

Coriander – An anti-oxidant, used as acne skin toner.  A very beautiful plant.

Dandelion – Aids digestion.  Can be ground into coffee.  Has numerous vitamins and minerals: A, C, K, Calcium, Iron, Manganese, Potassium.

Echinacea (Purple Coneflower) – Treats cold and flu; boosts immune system.  This is a beautiful plant.

Garlic – Antibiotic.  Increases heart health.  Garlic is a bulb and is very easy to grow.  It repels rabbits and moles.

Goldenseal – Treats eyes, boosts immune system.  This is a beautiful flowering plant that resembles a buttercup.

Horehound – Expectorant, treats colds.  This is a mint and can also be used to make candy.

Meadowsweet – Shrub used to treat fevers, inflammation, pain, ulcers, etc.  The name “aspirin” comes from this plants scientific name (Spiraea ulmaria).

Oregano – Used as a topical antiseptic and a sedative.  Treats colds, flu, mild fevers, infections, stomachaches, indigestion, and other aches and pains. It also treats MRSA (different studies have actually shown that Oregano treats MRSA better than most drugs prescribed for the infection).  A very beautiful plant. 

Parsley – Treats high blood pressure. 

Passion-flower – Treats insomnia and epilepsy.  There are numerous varieties of Passion-flower and some are poisonous so if you’re going to plant them, research them thoroughly! 

Rosemary – Decreases risk of stroke, Alzheimer’s, and Lou Gehrig’s disease. 

Smearwort – Used as an ointment (hence the name) to heal chronic sores.

Spearmint – Anti-oxidant.  Treats fungal infections.  Can be used to make candy.

Thyme – Treats sore throat (by gargling).  Treats wounds, skin and mouth infections.  Used as mouthwash (main ingredient in Listerine). 

Yarrow – Counteracts poisoning. 

How to Prepare Herbal Remedies

Tea Infusion: To begin, throw in a cupped handful of the herb/leaves.   Pour 2 cups of boiling water on top.  Brew leaves and flowers for about 10 minutes; seeds and roots for about 20. Typically, you don’t  need to strain herbal teas because the leaves go to the bottom.  You can also often reuse the leftovers (don’t throw them away!)  

Boiling:  Begin with cold water instead of already-boiling water.  Again, a cupped handful of plant to 2 cups of water.  This works especially well for roots, which need to be steeped for 20 minutes.  You can also use an overnight method by keeping the herb in cold water all night and then boiling in the morning for about 30 minutes. 

Cough Syrup: Make a concentrated tea infusion with 12 ounces of plant to 1 cup of water.  Infuse for 15 minutes.  Strain it and then add the liquid back to the pot.  Add 1 cup of honey and warm it just until it stirs well. 

Salve or Ointment
: For this, you also need olive oil and beeswax.  First, put a handful of fresh or dried plant into a pot and cover it with water.  After it begins to boil, bring it down to a simmer for about half an hour.  Strain it and put the liquid back in the pot, adding it to an equal amount of olive oil.  Boil until the water is gone.  Add beeswax until it’s the right consistency.

Steam: This works especially well with mints when you’re congested.  Throw a handful of fresh mint into a bowl of hot water.  Make a tent over your head with a towel and breathe the steam for few minutes.

Compress:  When using plants to treat muscle pain or injuries, first make a concentrated infusion, dip a towel in, ring it out, and apply it to the painful area.

JWR Adds: I recommend the following books on herbal medicine:



Letter Re: Practice Night Hiking to Get Ready to Bug Out to Your Retreat

The following describes my recent “dry run” at bugging out on foot.

I’ve been thinking that someday soon I will be in need of backpacking over to my group’s retreat. So I created a plan to make a dry run. I grabbed my basic day pack (a Camelbak hydration pack with the minimum goodies in it.) My load included, three liters of water, simple folding knife, space blanket, fire starter, single pen of bug stuff, a few Cliff bars, and speed loaders for my Ruger .357 Magnum. I also had spare batteries for my head lamp, and a bottle of polar pure water treatment –that I’ve just purchased. I also had my cell phone and a 120 pound Labrador Retriever keeping me company for this trip. I did this at night for two reasons, one because it’s been hot here in the day –northeastern United States in summer, and two because I’ve been switched to night shift at work and needed to get used to being awake later.

I decided that this was a test to see that I make the night hike, to a trail head six miles away, then from there I would work out getting on the main road and hike the road back down to my town six miles away.

I left at 9 p.m. at night. I gave my friends my itinerary for my trip. I leashed up the dog and away I went. I didn’t print or bring a map with me because I had done a 10 mile hike on these trails in the light of day last fall and had a pretty good idea as to about where I was going. (that being said everything does look different at night!)

The first thing I noticed is it was a full moon, I didn’t really need my head lamp on unless I was in dark tree cover. Aside from the head lamp I carried a small $3 laser/light from Wal-Mart. So if I really needed to see rocks I just pressed a button for a few seconds.

I made no attempt to be covert or do anything tactical. I was just thinking of speed, and safety. Moving at a good pace was easy on the old railroad to trail conversion. The dog didn’t mind at all as I stopped and gave him a water stream from my hydra pack at intervals when he seemed to be panting more than normal. It started out as a hot July evening, so both of us were warm at the start.

I made the first six miles of trail with few issues, Most of the hard part going on this trail was rough going in to dark tree cover hidden from the moon light. I used my head lamp when I needed to do things like water the dog but for the most part I kept the head lamp off conserving batteries. I heard a few coyotes on this part of the woodsy trail. The only animal I was worried about was skunks. I could handle most things but getting sprayed was not one of them. This is the main reason I would at intervals light up my area looking for eyes and trashing my own night vision. At times I couldn’t see the trail it was under shadows from the trees. In the heavy areas of wash out and larger rocks I used my head lamp, figuring I’d rather see the rocks then break an ankle. It was safer than moving like a guerrilla and having the scars to later prove it.

The trail crossed a back road and continued on, I decided to try and move to my left and locate my main road south –I had been traveling north and kept on the trail (and confirmed north movement with my compass on my watch when I thought things like forks in the trail might take me the wrong direction).

My first mistake was turning left to link up to a highway that I was unsure about. I walked about a mile down a development road, and then hit about four cul-de-sacs before hearing a car in the distance and going past the trail and back to the right, then on to the main road. I saw a road sign that said six miles south to home. The turkey hill was still open, and I was starving, but I decided eat what I was carrying. I slowly ate down a cliff bar. Hiking just six miles was enough to make me really hungry.

Now it was after midnight and the area was more urban so the dog and I walked the sidewalks on our southbound trip towards home.

I had worn a button up shirt over my tee shirt and since we both started out hot I was surprised at how much the night wind cooled things down. I rolled down my sleeves and buttoned up I was sweating at first and this cold with caused me to chill a little.

It was about this point in time I started really to pay attention to the cars, and noises around me. If for no other reason that I was in a more urban area, carrying a small pack, my Ruger GP100 in a Kydex holster on my side. The shirt tail hid the Ruger from view, and the dog walking on my left kept my right hand free just in case. At 12:30 at night in this sleepy town on a Tuesday night. I didn’t see anyone out – and I was ok with that. Here is also where I started noticing that age old question boxers or briefs? And having chosen badly my legs were starting to chafe badly. On another positive note the way back was almost all downhill so both the dog and I walked along the highway without much trouble. I did use the little laser/led light as a flasher each time I heard a car. I didn’t want to be run down by any of the drunks out there being as we were walking along the guard rail on the road side.

At about the two miles from home mark, I stopped at a closed gas station/Laundromat and sat for a while on a bench. I rubbed my legs, and the dogs- gave him more water at this point and he wanted very much to lay down and sleep on the ground. I think at this point he probably hated my guts for making this trip! I ate my last cliff bar and shared it with the pooch. I was raw, my legs hurt a little bit, low on water but not out.

I pressed on – it was now about 2:00 a.m. and the local bars in town had closed, so I was extra alert when a van riding on the double yellow lines almost wiped out a phone pole. It was a close call for DUI in progress but the dog and I were defensive and keeping out of the way of all cars and trucks we were safely away from this crazy drunk person.

Back home and time to feed the dog and take a shower- about five hours of walking to do almost 13 miles, due to being turned around in the suburbs up north…

Items that I would have loved to have and will likely take next time:

1. Hiking poles- some places on the trail were rocky and in the dark had I lost footing and got hurt I’d have been in trouble, poles would have helped on the rough patches.

2. Baby wipes – I didn’t bring enough toilet paper. That is a big fail in my book.

3. I’d have got more, high calorie food bars, some trail mix or other high cal food- it’s amazing how hungry you get moving fast and are even a little chilled from the cold night air.

4. Foot powder/extra socks. I didn’t stop and wait for swelling, but I also didn’t have blisters at all either.

5. Vaseline – my legs rubbing my inner thighs really hurt at about 10 miles. I used bag balm on the brush burn part when I got home, and it was only sore a day- this is something that should be mentioned to everyone who thinks they are in good shape as I’d been doing 4+ miles a day for a long time and never had issues like this –this was a complete surprise and the level of pain at the end made hiking almost unbearable .

6. Fleece jacket or wind breaker. Okay, it’s summer time, but what if the cold night air dropped below 50? I did get sweaty. I got soaked and then in the cold night air froze. Hypothermia is a killer even if it’s in the 70-80s out – a little rain and then cold could have been really bad.

7. Wool watch cap – I could have used one.

Things that really worked for me- and that I would bring again for the next adventure trip/ self readiness test.

Good cross training shoes/boots- broken in. I should have changed socks, but even skipping it- my wool socks in cross trainers didn’t cause me to blister up. No matter how hard it is to find good wool socks – it is better than cotton and worth every penny.

The carry more than one light and a few spare batteries – cheap piece of mind carrying a $3 junk LED light on a snap link on the belt loop.

Head lamp-

The items in my pack that I didn’t use like a knife, fire starter- would have been used if I stopped, but also had limited room and no canteen cup or similar items to cook in. – but again this was a pack out test basically to see if I could physically cover the distance of going from my place to a retreat (nine miles away)- and I did over that compensating for not carrying a heavy backpack with more gear, a [more capable] weapon and I did it alone (if you don’t count the dog.). I made no plans on camping, looking for wild plants in the dark, or really cooking on the trail. I figure if I’m bugging out in real life it’s probably not going to be too safe to stop and eat or relax on the trail.

Something else to think about is my buddy Arf. I kept him leashed the whole trip. or his safety, he’s had run ins with skunks and porcupines. I wish I had carried more food for him, and I was constantly keeping an eye out on the main road and in the urban areas for glass on the sidewalks. You’d be amazed at how much glass is around in the urban areas from broken beer bottles. It is everywhere and the last thing I wanted to do was carry the dog the rest of the way home. I couldn’t imagine fleeing after a major disaster without getting him some type of dog booties or paw protection. I really wonder how the MPs, SERE, and K9 units deal with a dog’s paw issues after a disaster. I wouldn’t consider him lucky as I am very alert about what my friend is walking on and keeping him leashed helped me control his stepping on very unhealthy pieces of broken bottles.

Anyhow it was a good learning experience, one that if you have never hiked any long distance and you need to consider foot travel to get to your retreat. You’d better get out and attempt it before you need to do it in real life because until you do it you will be left with the question of can you do it?

Can you make the trip if it is 8, 10. or 25 miles?

(Any 11B will be able to answer this question but that’s not why I’m saying to do it here.) I am saying to do it here to prove to yourself that you can and will accomplish your goal before you are forced t o try in real life when the stakes are higher than giving up and going home. – Fitzy in NEPA



Economics and Investing:

G.G. sent this: Economy Heading for a Systemic Collapse into Hyperinflationary Great Depression.

Jonas mentioned a fascinating news segment filmed by a Dutch journalist, in Indonesia: Gold Dinar, Silver Dirham.

AmEx sent this: Food Prices up as Consumers Feel Economic Pinch

Another from G.G.: Chicago Bank Fails, 2010 Tally Hits 109

Job Figures Just Part of a Grim Economic Picture. (Thanks to AmEx for the link.)

B.B. forwarded a link to a New York Times article: Jobless and Staying That Way

RBS flagged this: One-fourth of Idaho work force’s paychecks cut



Odds ‘n Sods:

Dept. of Homeland Security points out the fragility of the infrastructure. (Thanks to S. S. for the link.)

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Dave X. sent us this: Senate dumps strategy to prevent EMP damage

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A Volkswagen powered by human waste. (A hat tip to KAF for the link.)

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Reader Michael H. mentioned that audio from the talks from “The Next Hope” hacker conference held last month are now available for free download. Michael’s comments: “While anyone is sure to find many things of interest in what hackers talk about, of particular interest to SurvivalBlog readers will likely be “Hackers without Borders: Disaster Relief and Technology,” “Injecting Electromagnetic Pulses into Digital Devices,” “Lock Bypass without Lockpicks,” “Privacy is Dead — Get Over It,” “Risk Analysis for Dummies,” “Tor and Internet Censorship,” and the always entertaining (and frightening) “Social Engineering”.”

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F.J. sent us this over at The Humble Libertarian blog: One million pounds of California ground beef recalled after E. Coli outbreak





Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 30 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Parabellum (Luger ) with 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP projectiles, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $249 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, and B.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and B.) a Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.)

Round 30 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Psychological Preparedness for TEOTWAWKI

We do not know what the future brings, though in the survival community there is no shortage of speculative events that may occur. This article is a brief primer on psychological techniques that can be used in a TEOTWAWKI scenario to help prepare for and stave off psychological fatigue until a time at which you can properly cope with the situation at hand. Also, it provides some coping techniques to help get you back on track after all has settled.

Why are we so driven to preparation? The answer is death. It is inevitable, and we must all face it when it is time. Freud, whether you like him or not, posited that there is a death drive (later dubbed “Thanatos” by his follower, Stekel) which is innate in all humans. This drive, whether figurative or literal, can be used to explain our compulsion to survive and the reasons behind post-traumatic stress disorders and the recurrence of traumatic imagery. The idea is that we all have a drive inside of us that compels us toward our own end and that this drive acts contrary to our usual motivation, which is to seek pleasure. Being a more basic drive, it overrides the drive to seek pleasure and instead focuses us on our demise. In terms of Evolutionary Psychology, it is more important to survive and continue to propagate than it is to experience pleasure. In more general terms, this conflict between our expectation of death and desire to live (seek pleasure) creates anxiety in us.

This anxiety produces stress, which we tend away from and want to relieve. In order to do so, we begin to prepare to negate the fear of death. Preparation of the mind, body and local resources give us a feeling of security and reduces our anxiety.

Can I prepare too much?
In some, this becomes compulsive–almost to the point of [clinical] hoarding. “I can use this when TSHTF,” would be a common phrase that many survivalists and “preppers” have used when picking up secondhand items. Even if it is for a very unlikely survival situation, “You never know….”

Preparation for future unknowns in and of itself is not a bad idea. In fact, it is recommended by our own government to a certain extent. (Imagine them actually giving good advice!) However, it should be cautioned that when survivalism rises to a clinical state of obsession and compulsion, one should be cautioned that what may be occurring is a psychological reaction to fear instead of logical and rational preparation for future events.

So how do you know if you are a survivalist or engaging in unhealthy behaviors? A good rule of thumb is to honestly evaluate if it is causing distress or interruption of your everyday routine and relationships. For example, if you cannot make rent payments or buy groceries because you are stocking up on survival supplies, then you may need to seek professional help. Likewise, if you have sacrificed personal relationships with friends or loved ones to prepare for TEOTWAWKI, it may be time to speak with a professional. Any counselor worth their salt will be able to assist in setting healthy boundaries when preparing. Further, if you are constantly questioning whether or not you are going too far, then it is okay to speak with a therapist. It is better to alleviate your fears than to stress whether or not you are psychologically well adjusted.

This is all said with the acknowledgement that survivalists are usually independent and want to be self-sufficient, both psychologically and physically. If you know of someone that meets the aforementioned criteria, talk to them about it. Getting past the stigma of counseling is the hardest part of it all.

The most important point
If there were to be one point in particular that was the most important and the most helpful in securing psychological security, it would be this: Get yourself right in whichever religious tradition you subscribe to. In the end, the ultimate goal of survival is just that- to survive and not to die. However, as I mentioned above, we all must die, and we all must ultimately face death alone. Whether it comes in a disaster or in our sleep when we are old and ready, it comes. Much of the fear associated with the unknown future comes from the fear of passing away, so much of the stress can be relieved by learning how to not fear death. Whether in Christianity by acknowledging that one goes to see Christ or in Atheism by acknowledging that one lived a full life and did what they could to further the wealth of the human condition, that is the ultimate defense against psychological stress during TEOTWAWKI; To know that ultimately one has done all they could for their fellow man and [to please] God.

Preparation (pre-crisis) – Plan ahead
Psychological imagery is one of the best ways to prepare for an event. However, it can be also just as traumatic as the event itself in some instances. Keep this in mind as you play through scenarios in your mind. For instance, it is one matter to acknowledge that loved ones may pass away during a worst-case scenario. Do not dwell on this fact, however. Acknowledge it as a possibility and if necessary, focus on what you must to prevent it or to cope with it after the fact. Learn from your loved ones and make sure that you are spending quality time with them now. That will help to assuage the pain if the worst does happen, later on. This applies not only to survivalism, but in day-to-day life as well. Spend what time you have available now, wisely.

Run through your action plans and have them down pat. Just as a peace officer or martial artist uses muscle memory in a fight or crisis situation, so too will you use your plan of preparation when crisis strikes. Know what your action items are and have them prioritized. Make a list if you are unsure you can remember everything. This can assist in keeping yourself calm and collected when everything else is falling apart around you. Just as it is important for you to assign one person to one job after a major accident (for example, you need to go call 911. Another person needs to perform chest compressions, et cetera). You need one task: follow your list of action items one by one.

Also, make sure that you are steeling yourself for major fatigue and emotional turmoil. This can be accomplished by setting milestones for success. For example, one could set goals to gather the family, round up supplies, get out of town, make it to the safe area, unpack all necessary supplies, set up a security perimeter, and hold a family meeting. After each is accomplished, check it off your mental (or physical) list. This gives a sense of progress and accomplishment so as to provide a sense of direction and progress. Otherwise, one may feel that nothing is getting done and a sensation of becoming overwhelmed may set in.

As for the emotional fatigue, plan to have a few games packed with your survival gear along with some personal effects. This will tie you into a sense of normalcy and provide respite from an otherwise terrible situation. By occupying your mind with something other than the situation at hand, you give your mind time to rejuvenate and process information. By the time crisis occurs, you shouldn’t have to think of “what do I do now?” This is why planning is so important. When disaster strikes, follow your plan and achieve your pre-determined goals. Have contingency plans already thought out. This will help from overloading you with excessive planning after you have entered a crisis situation.

Lastly, surplus your preparations by 10% or more (excluding the surplus you intend for personal use). The 10% surplus is for charity, which will be discussed next.

During the crisis – Bottle your emotions up if necessary. Survive.
Crisis, depending on how severe, may push you past your breaking point. I often wonder if I could pass by a child standing on the side of the road alone and crying during a crisis situation. Would I take them with me? Leave them with some supplies? Look the other way? This type of situation is more than plausible, and one which I have found difficulty in preparing for. This enters more into the realm of speculation in American psychology, as studies are lacking on the best course of action. Minimizing incongruent feelings during a crisis is key (i.e., I want to live, but I want to help others too.), though it would be unwise to expend all of your resources. This is where your 10% surplus will play a major role. Charitably give out supplies to those in dire need as you see fit, though judicious disbursements will be a necessity. Know what your criteria will be, such as giving to those who appear unable to provide for themselves or within savable limits (not critically wounded). Though it is likely there will be much pain and death in a major disaster, providing for others and potentially saving lives will give you a sense of accomplishment and a morale boost that you have managed to do some good in spite of bad circumstances.

As a word of caution, there may be need to distribute your charity anonymously. As we see in many disaster stricken countries, any time aid is distributed, word spreads quickly and crowds become angry when they feel as though they have been shorted. Giving charitably may be done best in the dark of night, through a local church, or by proxy.

If violence erupts and self defense is necessary, make sure that you only engage in legitimate self defense. Consider whether you will engage in self defense by proxy (protecting others that cannot protect themselves). One man cannot defeat an army, so you must show some discernment when choosing your battles. We see this all the time in Third World countries where [untrained or lightly-trained] militias rule. If it comes down to it, the natural instinct is to protect you and yours. I am a firm believer that we have these instincts for a reason, and that we should follow them when we have no other frame of reference or guidance to work from. You must set your mind to an idea and stick to it under great stress. Unless you have military combat experience, taking a life may be the hardest thing you do. Under this stress some men have broken down in the most vicious battles (specifically in the two World Wars). Advancements have been made in combat preparations by shooting at silhouette targets and now through virtual reality games, which may be something to consider if you have firearms in your preparations. Remember what you are fighting to protect and let that be your guiding force.

In all circumstances, if it comes down to your survival or someone else’s (assuming you are feeling altruistic at that point in time), you can focus on one goal. (For example, to make it to a certain waypoint, survive to the next day, etc…) and push everything else from your mind. Ignoring the rest of your environment will allow you to escape indecision long enough to get you secure, at which time you can deal with the emotional fallout.

Also, consider these suggestions for the duration of the crisis event (especially when protracted):

Create chore lists on rotating schedules so that people do not become burnt out doing the same thing over and over again.

Play games. Have fun. It is important to have social interaction during this time. Play games like “I Spy” or make up riddles. Keep the mind occupied so that it does not wander into depression or anxiety.

Sleep. This is a very important component. If running a security detail during a time of crisis, make sure that the person appointed to security gets relieved and has a few days off to relax.

Make social connections. If possible, make social connections with like-minded individuals and groups (which you may have done in the preparation stage). Social support systems are necessary in disaster situations. However, stay guarded against situations that may jeopardize your security.

Engage in spiritual activities. Pray. Make peace with yourself and God.

Post Crisis- Let it out.
In this stage, professional help may not be available. You may have suffered great trauma or still be undergoing insufferable hardship yet need to cope with your emotional turmoil. Unfortunately there is no magic fix to dealing with guilt and grief. We have emotions for a reason and need to allow ourselves time to go through the grieving process after tragedy. Allow for yourself to feel the emotions and to be sad. However, counter irrational beliefs as soon as they pop into your mind. We all would do things differently had we known then what we know now, but that is the nature of our human existence. We do the best we can with what we know at the time. No one can ask for more than that.
Do not allow yourself to play the [past tense] “what-if” game.

It would be silly to believe that you will ever fully recover from a terrible tragedy, so do not expect too much progress too soon. Do not rush the process.

Do not dwell on what you could have done, but focus on your successes and the fact that you have made it as far as you have. Stay upbeat about the future and the difference you will be able to make.

Do the best you can to relive the traumatic images over and over. Allow yourself to visualize them as a life-sized picture in your mind, but then shrink them down until the images are very small. Then visualize them being filed away in your mind. This is a Neuro-Linguistic Programming (NLP) technique for reducing the emotional magnitude of the memory.

Create a tribute to those who you’ve lost so that you can remember them and celebrate their lives. Take solace in your faith that they are in a better place. Do not allow the question of why they are gone, but instead ask how they lived. Use their memory to create in you a better self.

If suicidal thoughts enter your mind, remind yourself how you have survived thus far and the irony that you would take your own life after preparing to live for so long.

Talk to friends and family about your emotions. Let yourself express how you feel. By not doing so, you risk making yourself emotionally unstable. If you experience anger, sadness, violent outbursts, sleeplessness, nightmares or other similar symptoms, make sure that you keep talking to others and keep confronting irrational beliefs and feelings of worthlessness or guilt.

It will never be the same as it was before, but you can grow from any tragedy. Keep the faith and finish the race.

Disclaimer
The preceding article is based on several psychological studies and adapted to specific [societal collapse] scenarios relating to the absence of all professional mental health assistance. It draws from multiple psychological theories and practices with several techniques mentioned. This text is not meant in any way to substitute for, replace, or amend proper psychological evaluation or treatment. All individuals who believe they may need psychological treatment are strongly encouraged to seek assistance from appropriately licensed mental health professionals. This advice is not provided for any reason other than informational and entertainment purposes and is not intended for personal implementation except in the absolute absence of any other form of mental health assistance.



Two Letters Re: Fire, The Flame of Life

Jim,
TSK’s article on fire was well written; however, I would like to add a few items and clarify a few things for the novice fire starter. I teach fire starting as part of a larger course, and one of the things that I think needs to be stressed is the difference between flame and fire. When you strike a match, or use any of the other starting methods listed, all you have is a flame. In order to turn a flame into a fire you need to first build a proper fire bed, typically using any of the methods discussed in the article. Some additional tinder (fine dry grass or wood shavings), kindling (sticks from the size of your little finger to the size of your thumb), and finally fuel (about the size of your wrist or larger. The idea is that the flame starts the additional tinder, which lights the kindling, which can generate enough heat to light the larger fuel. I have too often seen a student get so excited about starting a fire without using a match, that all of the concentration was placed there, only to get a flame going with no real place to put it to use. Additionally, you should have some extra fuel collected, before starting anything.

There are a few additional starting methods and devices I have used.

* Hand Drill
o Pro: Made with materials from nature. Anything that gets broken or damaged can easily be replaced or repaired.
o Con: Not an easy way to start a fire even for someone who is practiced, a lot of practice is required in mastering and becoming proficient with this method, which is a cross between the bow & drill and the fire plow.

* Fire Piston
o Pro: Must be produced ahead of time. Can be home built rather easily. Works well with just a little practice.
o Con: Contains moving parts which can break. Requires a supply of char cloth.

* Road Flare
o Pro: Will start nearly any fire even with wet wood. Typically used for real emergency situation only.
o Con: Must be replaced after each use. Most contain sulfur and the fire needs to burn for a while before using it for direct cooking.

Gerber Strike Force which is another version of flint and steel and has the same pros and cons listed in the original article.

The Strike Force (with a dry container of cotton dryer lint) is my favorite fire starter with both a Swedish Fire Steel and a Magnesium block for backup. I’ve been doing flint and steel for decades, but only found out about the fire piston in the past few years. We can all still learn new things when we pay attention. For more details on making char cloth or making and using the fire piston, do a search for them on YouTube and you’ll have numerous videos to watch. The fire piston has been around for a long time and was evidently the inspiration for Rudolf Diesel to create the engine of the same name. – LVZ in Ohio

Sir,
TSK’s article ‘Fire, The Flame of Life’was excellent, but it is unfortunately incomplete. TSK says “ In a survival situation the light and smoke for a fire can be very beneficial as a signaling device for search and rescue if you desire to be found. ” (emphasis mine) The point that is missed is that fire and smoke are very effective signal devices (fire night, smoke day) whether or not you desire to be found. Building smokeless fires is an art and limiting light escape is also an art. There is a reason “black out curtains” were used on ships and buildings during war times. In a really dark site, a cigarette lighter can be seen quite literally for miles. By personal experience I know of a case of one being seen for seven miles in the Mekong Delta. I was looking from my helicopter and they were signaling trying to attract our attention but the point is we found them. If you don’t want to be found, the Dakota fire pit, the use of overhead foliage to break up smoke, proper selection of wood, etc. all come into play. We teach our kids how to be found. Rarely do we teach how not to be found. A read through some of the historical type narratives of the old west where discovery by hostile forces meant death can be enlightening. (As an aside, many of Louis L’Amour’s novels contain accurate survival information.) Another issue is that we have a tendency to gaze into our fires at night. Probably some throwback to the days of the cave when fire meant safety. Unfortunately, what that means is that we are night blind for quite some time after. Is the noise in the trees a rescue party or a hungry bear? It might be nice to be able to see and be sure. Big fires are comforting but waste wood/fuel and blind everyone around the fire while sending out locating beacons for anyone interested in looking. One key skill to be learned is to build a fire of the proper size [for the task at hand], no larger and no smaller. This is a mark of the woodsman and is to be cultivated. TSK is correct, fire is critical. But how we build and use it marks us as a either rank tenderfoot or as someone who has a grasp on reality in the wild.
Keep up the great work on the site and thanks to all of the contributors. They give us much to think about. Regards, – Captain Bart



Economics and Investing:

The Worrying Numbers Behind Underwater Homeowners. A bit of good housing news came in a recent report issued by real estate analytics firm CoreLogic: The number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity declined slightly to 11.2 million by the end of the first quarter this year, down from 11.3 million at the end of 2009. The bad news: Those 11.2 million loans are 24% of all U.S. mortgages. Add the 2.3 million borrowers who are close to slipping underwater (those with less than 5% equity), and the numbers rise to 13.5 million — 28% of mortgages.

B.B. sent this one: Fannie Mae Seeks $1.5 Billion From U.S. Treasury After 12th Straight Loss. (The MOAB continues to grow…)

It’s Official: Social Security System Now in the Red. It finally happened: The nation’s Social Security system will pay out more than it takes in this year and next, as aging baby boomers enter retirement. On the plus side, according one estimate, health-care reform should keep Medicare solvent for an extra 12 years.

Growing Alarm Over Deflation Could Be a Buying Opportunity
. Some analysts are now worried about falling prices, sending big investors fleeing stocks for safer assets. But earnings are healthy and pockets of strength are emerging, suggesting it’s a good time to go against the grain.

The latest from the Dr. Housing Bubble blog: Million dollar California foreclosures – 35 examples of massive upper-tier foreclosures including one home that is underwater by $2.2 million. Santa Monica housing still in a bubble.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Chuck G. spotted this: Using your RV to survive in an earthquake or other natural disaster. This might have some utility for a short-term disaster, but it would be suicidal in something long term. Without propane, your RV will turn into a refrigerator in the winter. Without gas, you will lose mobility, possibly when you are in an inopportune locale. And given the limited room for food storage, once that is consumed, you are likely to end up part of the problem, rather than part of the solution.

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A federal judge ends Idaho, Montana wolf hunt. Our thanks to RBS for sending the link. And in related news: Caught on tape: Largest Oregon wolf pack ever

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KAF flagged this: Saving Rural Grocers