Economics and Investing:

Eugene in Anaheim sent this: New Cash Steered to Clunkers

Thanks to Karen H. for this: America’s Recession ‘Safe Zone’ Shrinking

From The Daily Bell: Bob Chapman on gold, silver, a bank holiday and the monetary elite

Regulators shut down banks in five states; Regulators close banks in Fla., NJ, Ohio, Okla., Ill.; 69 US bank failures this year

Items from The Economatrix:

Weiss: Urgent Financial and Economic Crisis Investment Strategy Update “It’s only fair to acknowledge that the economic depression I foresaw in my book and in my reports is unfolding more slowly than I had expected. … the next phase of the crisis we’ve been warning you about has been delayed, … [But] my long-term outlook has not changed by one iota! All of this simply means that the calm before the next phase of this financial storm may be prolonged.”

US Government Yuan Bond Threat to US Dollar

Why You Should Not Bank on Banking Stocks

Commodities Still a Lot More Attractive than Stocks

Why Food Prices are Set to Rocket

Squeeze on Pay, Benefits May Crimp Recovery

Odds ‘n Sods:

Karen H. recommended this piece over at the Utah Prepper’s site: Making Better Char Cloth

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Trent H. and GG were the first of nearly a dozen readers to send us this Wall Street Journal piece that is right up our alley: Hollywood Destroys the World The new wave of disaster movies and TV shows isn’t about staving off the apocalypse. It’s what happens afterwards that counts. Viggo Mortensen versus the cannibals.

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SurvivalBlog just became a featured blog at AmmoLand.com

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What part of “no jurisdiction” don’t they understand? Up in arms over gun: Replica rifle has Brooklyn man at odds with cops (Thanks to Tom V. for the link.)

Notes from JWR:

The first post today is a guest article about Tibetan Yaks. The Memsahib and I raised ultra-wooly black yaks, back in the mid-to-late 1990s. We found them quite easy to manage. Our first yak bull (“Yukon Yak”) bred our Jersey cow, but unfortunately, she threw a bull calf. (We were hoping for a heifer.) Our senior yak cow (“Yetta”) originated from a Canadian zoo, and was far from tame! But all of her offspring including our first bull calf (“Black Yak Pershing”) were very gentle. I’ll never forget their distinctive “Uggh, uggh” yak grunts, and the strange sight of their purple tongues!

We sold our little herd of nine yaks in 1998, since I had accepted a job with Oracle Corporation in the San Francisco Bay Area, and could not afford to buy or even rent a house with sufficient pasture land there. We really wish that we had been able to keep them. Yaks are well worth the investment, and quite easy to fence and handle. But, as with any other bovine, never turn your back on a bull!

This is the first entry for Round 24 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The winners will receive even more prizes than in previous rounds. For example, we’ve added a HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com.

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried foods, courtesy of Ready Made Resources., and C.) A HAZARiD Decontamination Kit from Safecastle.com. (A $345 value).

Second Prize: A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Round 24 ends on September 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Yak to the Future, by Judy T.

Tibetan Yaks in America? Why yes, about 5,000 of them, and growing. Why yaks? They are the most versatile animal whether you operate a retreat with livestock or plan to Get out of Dodge (G.O.O.D.)

Yaks can be yoked to pull for logging, farming, or transport. They can pack upwards of 250 pounds which I believe is more than llamas, donkeys or most horses. This is great if you want to carry a yurt or hunt elk and want to pack it out instead of dressing out in the field. Yaks can be ridden like horses and basically fill the same niche as an ox or riding steer. They are much more intelligent than cows and are almost as intelligent as smart horses.

They are also loyal and protective guard animals, but are quiet (making only an occasional low grunting sound) when stealth is required and they lay down quietly during the night. They are genetically programmed to be able to successfully defend against wolves and dogs. They have gorgeous large curved horns and hooves that are extremely accurate and precise in finding their target. They are spirited and easygoing, looking like giant horned long-haired bunnies leaping, spinning, and racing around the field.

They are of medium size for a bovine with cows maxing out at about 900 pounds and steers or bulls maxing out at about 1,500 pounds. They can be crossed with other cattle to produce much larger animals due to hybrid vigor. However, bigger isn’t always better and while a pureblood yak eats only about 1% of its body weight per day (1,000 pound yak will eat 10 pounds of hay), a hybrid, depending on whether its ½, ¼, 1/8, etc. will eat 3-to-8% of its body weight per day similar to other cattle. They need only regular pasture grass and grass hay and a mineral block. Grain (wet COB , oats, calf manna, etc.) should only be fed occasionally as a training tool and treat. Don’t feed them alfalfa. Its too rich for them and they have an increased chance of bloating.

Yaks very seldom have the birthing problems of the modern cow. They will calve unassisted in the field. Sometimes you may have to go looking for the calf depending on your set up. Occasionally the cows don’t show and you end up with surprise calves.

Yak meat has a delicious and delicate beef-like flavor. It is very low in fat as the fat layer is put down on the outside of the carcass and is easily trimmed off. It is deep red in color, high in protein and Omega 3 fatty acids, and low in calories, saturated fats, cholesterol and triglycerides. [JWR Adds: Yak beef has the lowest cholesterol of any beef variety, while yak milk has one of the highest butterfat contents. What a great combination for prepared families that want make butter!]

Their milk has a high fat content and makes exceptional butter, cheese, and even ice cream. The traditional Tibetan methods of preparation and storage without refrigeration takes a bit of getting used to for the Western palate, but worth trying to prepare for the time when refrigeration may not be easy to come by.

Yak fiber is comparable to cashmere or angora. It is the downy undercoat that sheds off during the spring and can be combed out, collected and processed. The courser outer hair or ‘guard hair’ on the legs, mane, and belly can be used to weave tents, ropes, and belts. There is also the hide, and leather which can be tanned in yak butter, horn, and bone which can be made into many very useful and durable products.

Their manure is more valuable than gold, in my opinion. It is great fertilizer, doesn’t have a foul odor at all and can be dried burned as fuel straight into the wood stove, or become methane fuel in a biodigester.

I have less than 10 acres outside of Salem, Oregon and two acres are fenced pasture for the yaks, so far. I have three yaks right now – Tashi and Misha are my heifers, and Mouse is my bull. They’ll be two years old in September when I can start training them to ride. I have them trained in the yoke and have recently started adding more weight. Yaks will need between 3 and 5 sizes of yokes during their lifetime.

I’ve been using Tashi and Mouse to pull down fallen trees out of my “forest” I don’t have the resources yet to get a wagon and some working ox-drawn farming implements but I’m working toward that. The yaks are coming along well with packing too especially now that I have wooden pack saddles and tack and saddle bags made from yak guard hair and yak leather tanned in yak butter. When my yaks were calves, finding dog backpacks and later llama packs was difficult for me. For some reason packs were scarce at the time. Now the packs are everywhere.

It is best to start training almost from day one. Get them used to being touched all over, brushed, and bathed. Make these positive experiences. I got my three when they were 3 and 5 months old which is just fine if you establish a good bond and train consistently. You and your team/herd will progress much faster. I had some problems surrounding work and a 2 hour commute and wasn’t as consistent with my training as I should have been. Fortunately my yaks’ intelligence and our strong bond made it possible for us to make up for lost time.

Patience, persistence, consistency, discipline, and kindness are the keys to success. While yaks can be very cuddly and sweet, as with any bovine you must make sure they know who’s boss and remind them. You must never mistreat them or make them afraid. However, you must ensure that they never even think to challenge you or get away from you. If they are allowed to do that too often then it will be much harder for you to get them to do what you want them to do. A well placed tap to the knees or head with a stick, is usually all it takes to remind them if they get out of line.

Whether you yoke them or pack with them or not you need to teach them the basic commands – Git up (move forward), Back up, Whoa, Gee (go right), Haw (go left). Combine these verbal commands with consistent hand signals until the yaks will follow either verbal or hand signals. Then you will be able to command your yaks when silence is necessary.

Yaks, once trained, are very dependable on the road. They are a hit at parades. So if you decide to G.O.O.D. when TSHTF the yaks are naturals to carry your equipment and supplies. They can be driven as is traditionally done in Tibet, or they can be led on a halter and rope. They are fine with caravanning too, but they may jostle one another more than other pack animals. So just be aware if that happens and either work with them to minimize that or pack accordingly. My personal preference is to keep their spirited nature intact. There is a bit more risk, but you end up with a more alert and intelligent animal

There are some valuable resources available resources out there such as www.IYAK.org , www.tillersinternational.org, www.ridingsteers.com , www.ruralheritage.com , www.springbrookranch.com, www.prairieoxdrovers.com/  and www.berrybrookoxsupply.com. In September, my own site www.oxzenacres.com will be up and running where you can check up on the progress of my little yak herd.

Two Letters Re: Sterling Silver Flatware for Barter?

James:
I want to warn readers about selling sterling and coin silver and other “scrap” [precious] metal silverware and jewelry. Most of the buyers out there are not reputable, and only pay a small fraction of the real “melt” value. You’ll get the best prices by selling directly to the silver foundry-type operations.

To make sure that you get paid properly, first weigh your pieces on an accurate scale.

Wikipedia says: “Sterling silver is an alloy of silver containing 92.5% by weight of silver and 7.5% by weight of other metals, usually copper. The sterling silver standard has a minimum millesimal fineness of 925.”

So… When selling [“Sterling” marked silver] for scrap, you multiply the weight of your pieces by .925. That gives you the actual silver weight.

If you don’t have a Troy ounce scale, then you will have to convert (calculate) regular [avoirdupois] ounces to Troy ounces.

[JWR Adds: A Troy ounce is 480 grains,whereas an avoirdupois ounce is 437.5 grains. (There are 12 Troy ounces to a Troy pound, not 16!) To convert: Multiply the number of avoirdupois ounces by .912 to get the approximate number of troy ounces. And I should also mention that “Coin” silver jewelry –often marked “Dollar”, “D”, or “900” is .900 fine.]

Then figure that a legit scrap buyer will only pay you about 70% of the silver value, based on the days’s spot price. That may not sound like much, but you have to take into consideration their handling costs, fuel and labor costs for melting, and them compensating for their occasionally getting gypped by people that include some fake “Sterling” pieces that are actually just silver plate. So, 70% is actually pretty fair, considering.

The rip off artists that mentioned only pay about 20% to 30% of spot. So, like I say, beware! – Glenn in Atlanta

 

Hi Jim,

Regarding sterling silverware, I’d like to mention that Northwest Territorial Mint will buy sterling silver flatware and other [scrap] silver items.

They are are an honest outfit, as you know. – JM3

Economics and Investing:

From reader G.M.H.: Recession Worse than Prior Estimates, Revisions Show

Sven sent this: Card Companies Ready to Settle Up

Items from The Economatrix:

Middle Class Suicide

The Collapse of Commercial Property: Towers of Debt

Gold Will Hit $1,000 Again

The Future Made Simple (The Mogambo Guru)

Goodbye Bland Affluence

Job Levels Won’t Rebound in California Until 2013

Unpaid Property Taxes Hit Localities

Disney Earnings Drop 26% on Weaker Theme Park, Media Results

Oil Slips Below $67 as Euro Stocks Falter

Odds ‘n Sods:

Craig K. sent us this: Germans Hoarding Traditional Light Bulbs

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Congressmen “fearful for their safety” as town hall meetings “run wild” (Thanks to F.G. for the link.) Gee, it sounds like the “Angry Villager Rule” from Dungeons and Dragons. Perhaps the sale of tar and feathers should be banned, just in case.

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House Approves Overhaul of Food Safety Regulations Some claim that this would give the US Government total control over food production.

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Five Freedoms You’d Lose in Healthcare Reform

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The president has got to stop promising renewed growth. While this would affect the perceived “standard-of-living” as measured in things like shopping mall sales and vehicle miles driven, it would not necessarily mean diminished “quality-of-life.” It would mean different ways-of-life for a lot of people — for instance, young adults who had expected lifetime employment as corporate executives but who, instead, find themselves ten years from now working at farming. We have an awful lot to get real about.” – James H. Kunstler (author of The Long Emergency)

Notes from JWR:

We’ve completed the judging!

The first prize winner for Round 23 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest is Mike S., for his article GPS for Day-to-Day Use and Survival. He will receive: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.)

The second prize winner is Extraman, for his article Going the Extra Mile in Amateur Communications. He will receive a “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $350.

The third prize winner is Carla, for her article Savings and Self-Sufficiency with Homemade Laundry Detergent. She will receive a copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing.

Runner-up prizes go to four writers:

Chris M., for It Will Be Skills, Not Gear That Will Count in TEOTWAWKI

Skyrat, for The Jump Kit

Bill in Chicagoland, for Escape From (Fill in Your City Here), 2009

Tall Sally, for Three Rules for Persuading the Sheeple

They will each receive a $30 Amazon.com gift certificate.

Note to prize winners: Please e-mail me your snail mail addresses (both UPS and US mail), and I’ll get your prizes out, right away.

Today we begin Round 24 of the writing contest. Round 24 will end on September 30th, and will feature even more prizes! Get busy writing, and e-mail us your entry.

City Data as a Retreat Locale Search Tool

SurvivalBlog Readers:
Are you trying to find small towns to evaluate for potential relocation? I’ve been wrestling with the process and have found it tedious at best. There is a web site, however, that can be a valuable resource: City Data. If you follow this link you will come to a page that has the states listed. Click on the state you are interested in Idaho, for example. This link takes you to a list of cities with a population over 6,000. There is a link at the top of the page that lists towns and villages with a population between 1,000 and 6,000. Follow that link and your are presented with a list of towns and their population (Bovill and Troy are under 1,000). When you select a town it will display detailed demographics (try Orofino). While the amount of detail varies, it contains a wealth of data that we are interested in. In general you will at least find population, gender, age, ethnicity, education, and income statistics. Some pages also contain information about occupation (is this a farming town?) the nearest medical facilities, population density, distance to major population centers, crime, climate, local government and more. It is a fantastic starting place to refine the search for your ideal location. – Scrod

JWR Replies: It has been several years since City Data web site has been mentioned in SurvivalBlog. It is still a good one! I also like the Moving.com web site’s relative cost comparison calculator.

OBTW, take a look at this population density map of the US, Mexico, and Canada. Sometimes a picture truly does tell a thousand words. And on a global scale, The Human Footprint Composite Map hosted by NASA’s web site is similarly enlightening.

See my Recommended Retreat Areas static page for some detailed retreat locale suggestions. And even greater detail (including some useful maps) is available in my book “Rawles on Retreats and Relocation“. OBTW, although it is now a bit dated, I also recommend the book Strategic Relocation by Joel Skousen.

Choosing a retreat locale is a not a “one size fits all” process. A lot of your decision making will be predicated on your work and family situation, your stage in life, and your preference for a particular climate. Differences in gun laws are important to many SurvivalBlog readers. (See Boston’s Gun Bible by Boston T. Party, for a detailed state-by-state comparison.) Taxes are another determining factor. For some of us, property taxes are more important than income taxes.
I suggest prayer and extensive study before traveling to look for retreat property.

Letter Re: Sterling Silver Flatware for Barter?

Mister Rawles:
We know having a supply of junk silver is a good idea, and we’re working slowly toward that goal. What would you suggest for those that have inherited sterling flatware or serving pieces? Not many people seem to use them anymore, we sure don’t, but it’s hard to sell them for cash in today’s economic climate. Do they have any value as trade items in a SHTF scenario? What would you suggest doing with these old family items that don’t hold sentimental value for us? Thanks! – Susan W.

JWR Replies: Unless they have sentimental value, I recommend selling (or trading) silverware, and getting a like value of pre-1965 quarters. Those 90% silver quarters will be much more recognizable and trusted for barter–not to mention that they will be in much more convenient divisible units.

Letter Re: One Way to Visualize Inflation and Dollar Devaluation

Jim,
CRW points out that:
If you had $1,000 in 1900, you could have bought 50 ounces of gold with it, yet today, a thousand bucks will buy only about one ounce of gold Clearly, gold has held its value better than numbers on paper. Fine, but that’s a fairly useless observation.

Consider: gold doesn’t hold its value as well as other things. The overall consumer price index has increased by a factor of only about 32:1 during the same time; that is, gold has failed to hold its value relative to consumer products, primarily because refined gold was already as good as it could get but other products have increased in intrinsic quality and value.

And consider this: you could also have invested your money in 1900 in an interest-bearing savings account at an average rate of return of four percent per year (conservatively less than the actual historical average), and today you’d have almost $72,000. You could get about 72 ounces of gold with that. In other words, keeping your money in gold would have lost you some of your money relative to investing it even at a low, reliable interest rate.

Or you could have invested your money in stocks.

From January 1900 to June 2009, stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average appreciated from an index value of 66.1 to 8,447, a ratio of 12s8 to 1. If you’d given up your gold in 1900, you could have turned it into 128 ounces of gold today, in spite of all the stock-market crashes between then and now.

Over the same time, the S&P composite index appreciated from 6.1 to 921.9, a ratio of 151 to 1. Even better. (And I note that even this result represents an average rate of return of only a little over 4.7%– which shows that the stock market isn’t necessarily better in the long run than safe interest-bearing accounts. This conclusion should not surprise anyone, since the returns from these accounts tend to come from the same kinds of business investments that underlie the stock markets, but it’s not generally well understood.)

Inflation isn’t even in the top 20 of things people need to worry about or prepare for today.

You already correctly advise people to buy durable goods instead of gold. Naive comments like CRW’s only distract people from that message.

– PNG

JWR Replies: While his premise does disregard the macro-level investing world, it does illustrate gold’s relative stability versus non-invested paper currency. (What is commonly termed “mattress money.”) It is often mentioned by Austrian School economists that a century ago, one ounce of gold would buy a good men’s suit. It still will, but a $20 bill certainly won’t. Nor will a German 20 Papiermark note. (And the later Mark notes went to almost zero in 1923.)

I cannot over-emphasize this: Gold is not an “investment”. It is merely a safe store of value in times of monetary crisis. Neither I, nor writer CRW have suggested “investing” in gold. For absolute safety, there are very few stores of wealth that can match gold. Granted, on average, stocks would have gained more than gold. But diversified risk wasn’t an option until advent of the first mutual fund in 1928. (The Wellington Fund.) Countless individual stocks have gone bust, and their certificates are now only good for wallpaper. And, granted, savings compounded in an interest-bearing bank account would have also gained more than gold. But until the advent of the FDIC, lots of individual investors lost money in bank failures, too.

I believe a balanced investing portfolio should include some precious metals, but only after key logistics have been secured. To clarify: hedging with some silver and gold is only appropriate after you have your beans, bullets and Band-Aids set aside.