Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at Europe’s economic and monetary woes.

Precious Metals:

Understanding the Silver Planchet Shortage at the U.S. Mint.

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From a chartist perspective: Gold Price Forecast – Crisis Indicators Flashing Red, Gold Near Critical Bottom.

Economy & Finance:

France24: ‘Severe economic slowdown’ awaits Europe as energy crunch bites.

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Even Klaus Schwab’s WEF cronies are asking: Are economic headwinds blowing in the direction of a global recession? Chief economists answer.

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At Wolf Street: Housing Bubble Woes: Mortgage Demand Plunges, Rates Near 7%, Spread Between Mortgage Rate & 10-Year Treasury Yield Blows Out Most since Dec. 2008 and 1986.

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Hedge funds providing best investor protection since dotcom crash.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — October 6, 2022

Today is the birthday of science fiction author David Brin, born, 1950. He wrote The Postman, which was very loosely the foundation of a movie by Kevin Costner.

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I just read that Colonel Dean Caswell died at his home in Austin, Texas on September 21st. He was the last living U.S. Marine Corps fighter ace of World War II passed on at the age of 100.

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We are still seeking entries for Round 103 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. Round 103 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.  Thanks!

Update: Big Decisions — Weighing The Risks and Benefits

JWR’s Introductory Note: The following is a slightly expanded update to a post that I wrote for SurvivalBlog back in September of 2005:

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When doing radio interviews or giving lectures, I’m often asked where the “perfect” place is for a survival retreat. The short answer is: There is none. Granted, there are a lot of places that are much better than others, but there is no single “one size fits all” perfect place. Much ike buying a pair of boots, the decision has as much to do with the size and shape of your feet as it does the maker of the boots. Everyone has their personal needs and expectations. Some people prefer dry climates while others can’t stand them. Some folks like the feeling of privacy provided by a wall of trees where others would feel claustrophobic. Some need the stimulation of exposure to the arts, while others could care less. And some have good health, while others need to live close to medical specialists.

Even more importantly, before deciding where you might move, you have to weigh the Risks and Benefits of moving at all. From an actuarial standpoint, you might have nearly as good a chance of living to a ripe old age if you stay in the suburbs. It all depends on your personal “worst case scenario.” But if your envisioned worst case is an economic depression similar to that of the 1930s–with a relatively intact infrastructure–then you might conclude that there is no need to relocate. You can just “stock up”, improve your home’s security features,  and stay put where you are. But if your worst case is a full-scale whammy–such as a terrorism campaign that levels cities and/or causes a long-term grid-down societal collapse, then you will probably want to move to a remote, lightly populated farming region with plentiful water. I’m not in the business of making scenario-based decisions for people. Those decisions are up to you, as an individual. Once you decide that you definitely want to move, then, yes, I certainly have some good suggestions on potential locales for you.

The recent Wu Flu pandemic changed a lot of things. Increasingly, Americans are choosing to work from home. Many are now full-time telecommuters, so they can live anywhere that they have stable power, telephone service, and Internet service.  This has opened up the opportunity for many people to permanently relocate to a suitable retreat locale.

Lastly, as a Christian, I believe that any major decision should be preceded by prayer. Seek God’s providence for your life. You can only do that if you have repented of your sins and have begun a Christian walk. In deference to the nature of this blog and the wide range of views held by my readers, I won’t go into great detail about this. But you know where I stand. – JWR

The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods

SurvivalBlog presents another edition of The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods— a collection of news bits and pieces that are relevant to the modern survivalist and prepper from “JWR”. Our goal is to educate our readers, to help them to recognize emerging threats, and to be better prepared for both disasters and negative societal trends. You can’t mitigate a risk if you haven’t first identified a risk. The emphasis of today’s column is on a few crucial U.S. Supreme Court cases.

Why 80% of Americans Live East of This Line

Matt C. wrote to recommend a thought-provoking video: Why 80% of Americans Live East of This Line. The key part of this 20-minute video begins at the three-minute mark. This data adds credence to my postulates on The American Redoubt. Note that the video wanders off into some climate change politics after the 12:50 mark.

Supreme Court Declines Hearing Bump Stock Ban Case

Over at the leftist CNBC news outlet: Supreme Court rejects gun rights challenge to bump stocks ban.

Matt Bracken: What if a Full-Size LNG Tanker Exploded?

Reader Tim J. suggested this post by Matt Bracken, over at the WRSA site: How bad would the explosion of an LNG tanker be?

JWR’s Comment: Now largely forgotten  — and not well-publicized at the time because of WWII secrecy — the 1944 Cleveland East Ohio Gas explosions were on a smaller scale, but they illustrate the magnitude of the risk. Those explosions killed 130 people and destroyed a one-square mile area in Cleveland, Ohio.
Continue reading“The Survivalist’s Odds ‘n Sods”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“We do not segment our lives, giving some time to God, some to our business or schooling, while keeping parts to ourselves. The idea is to live all of our lives in the presence of God, under the authority of God, and for the honor and glory of God. That is what the Christian life is all about.: – R.C. Sproul

 

Preparedness Notes for Wednesday — October 5, 2022

October 5, 1703 was the birthday of Jonathan Edwards. He died March 22, 1758. He was a prolific Calvinist theological writer. Many of his writings were later collected in the multi-volume book The Rational Biblical Theology of Jonathan Edwards, edited by John Gerstner.

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I just heard of the passing of singer-songwriter Loretta Lynn, at age 90. She was quite a lady, and she had a lasting impact on country music.

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A reminder: Round 103 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest is now underway and we are in great need of entries. More than $750,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 103 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

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Today’s feature article by Matthew Piepenberg is a guest post selected by JWR.  It first appeared at the highly-recommended Gold Switzerland web site.

The Fed’s Strong USD Policy: A Recipe For Systemic Implosion, by Matthew Piepenberg

From Main Street USA to the village corners and central banks of Europe, Japan, and elsewhere, the Fed’s strong USD policy is backfiring—big time. Just ask the Brits…

Having spent years creating the inflation (QE1 to unlimited QE, Repo bailouts, massive money supply expansion, and an historical wealth transfer from an inflated, Fed-driven stock market), the Fed will be cleaning up its own inflation mess on the backs of the U.S. working class and its other global “allies” while blaming the CPI inflation on Putin, Covid and climate change.

How’s that for rigged to fail?

But that’s just the beginning, and it’s not just about the USA.

Engineering a Recession Powell Can’t Control

By raising rates into what we all know is a recession, Powell, who delusionaly pretends to be Volcker re-born, wants to solve the inflation he helped create by engineering a demand-crippling recession which he thinks he can control, but can’t and won’t.

And this will be the mother of all recessions, as there is an historical and concomitant debt (and hence currency) crisis in every corner of the globe ($300T+) as well as every corner of the nation ($90T+), from the toxic corporate bond market and over-strapped households to a grotesquely bloated ($30T+) government debt market.

Keep It (Horribly) Simple

It’s all horribly simple, in fact.

If debt is the everywhere-driver of the economy and markets, then any significant increase in the cost of that debt will destroy every corner of that economy and those markets, from zombie enterprises to negative yielding US Treasuries.

Powell’s hawkish stance will lead to anything but a “contained recession,” which the Fed will be no less effective “containing” as they were in “containing” their so-called “transitory inflation.”

Rising rates will cripple nearly every asset but the artificially inflated USD until all savings are gone, most citizens are hand-out dependent, and most markets and currencies are on their knees.

At that point, Uncle Sam will either default on the IOUs (Treasury bonds) which no one will want, or the Fed will pivot to more mouse-click money to buy/support his debt addiction, following the recent example in the UK.Continue reading“The Fed’s Strong USD Policy: A Recipe For Systemic Implosion, by Matthew Piepenberg”

SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets

This weekly column is a collection of short snippets: responses to posted articles, practical self-sufficiency items, how-tos, lessons learned, tips and tricks, and news items — both from readers and from SurvivalBlog’s editors. Note that we may select some long e-mails for posting as separate letters.

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Hurricane Ian Could Cost Insurers $57 Billion.

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Russian nuclear submarine armed with ‘doomsday’ weapon disappears from Arctic harbor: report.

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A legislative update from the Gun Owners Of America (GOA) with news a good bill that deserves your support:

“Senator Marshall of Kansas introduced the SHORT Act in the Senate. It sends a simple but strong message to the ATF. It stands for STOP HARASSING OWNERS OF RIFLES TODAY.

This crucial bill will remove the unconstitutional taxation, registration, and regulation in the National Firearms Act of Short Barreled Rifles, Short Barreled Shotguns, and those classified under ‘Any Other Weapons.’”

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Manitoba becomes third Canadian province to refuse participation in Trudeau’s gun buyback scheme.

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Man 3D-Prints Guns For New York Buyback Event, Makes A Whopping $21,000.

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Continue reading“SurvivalBlog Readers’ & Editors’ Snippets”

Preparedness Notes for Tuesday — October 4, 2022

October 4, 1923 was the birthday of the late Charlton Heston, who was born John Charles Carter. He died April 5, 2008. He is often remembered for movies like Ben Hur, The Ten Commandments, Soylent Green, The Planet of the Apes, and the survivalist classic The Omega Man.

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Today, we are featuring the monthly column written by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins. It is being posted a couple of days later than usual, because Hurricane Ian slammed into Florida.

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We are now seeking entries for Round 103 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $750,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 103 ends on November 30th, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

September 2022 in Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran

Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover gold’s performance, and the factors that affected gold prices.
This is an abbreviated Month in Precious Metals column, due to Hurricane Ian striking southwest Florida.

Factors Affecting Gold This Month

INFLATION

Inflation indicators resumed their climb in September after some slightly encouraging signs that it might be topping out in August.

Average inflation in the EU hit a record 10.0% this month, putting the ECB in a tough spot in its efforts to break the grip of stagflation. Any EU nation that isn’t already in a recession is on the cusp, while the continent-wide energy crisis is choking industrial production. It’s also practically eliminating discretionary consumer spending, as an increasing number of households will face the nightmare of deciding between heat and food this winter.

RATE HIKES

The Fed hiked interest rates another 75 basis points in September to 3.25%. The upsetting part was the anonymous Fed “dot plot” of future rates. This revealed that Fed leaders expected interest rates to be around 4.5% by the end of the year.
Since there are only two more FOMC meetings this year, this predicts at least one more 75bp hike before Christmas.

U.S. DOLLAR

The dollar continued to rampage through the currency markets like Godzilla through Tokyo in September. The collapse in the Japanese yen forced the Bank of Japan to intervene, the euro fell far below parity, and the surprise unfunded spending plans of the new UK government pushed the pound to $1.03 (while causing a financial crisis.)Continue reading“September 2022 in Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran”

SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt

This weekly column features news stories and event announcements from around the American Redoubt region. (Idaho, Montana, eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, and Wyoming.) Much of the region is also more commonly known as The Inland Northwest. We also mention companies of interest to preppers and survivalists that are located in the American Redoubt region. Today, we take note that wolf packs are now expanding their territory into western Oregon. (See the Central & Eastern Oregon section.)

Idaho

Judge bans cameras in Lori Vallow-Daybell and Chad Daybell cases.

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Transgender inmate who sued Idaho to get $2.5M in legal fees.

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Four of five state-owned lots at Payette Lake’s Cougar Island fail to sell at auction.

Continue reading“SurvivalBlog’s News From The American Redoubt”

Preparedness Notes for Monday — October 3, 2022

The Maltese Falcon, John Huston’s adaptation of Dashiell Hammett’s famed 1930 novel, had its world premiere on October 3, 1941. It starred Humphrey Bogart. It is considered the greatest detective movie ever made.

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Two alerts from Spaceweather.com:

X-FLARE! Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X1-class solar flare (Oct. 2nd @ 2025 UT). Ironically, it did not come from big dangerous sunspot AR3112, described below, but rather from AR3110, a smaller and apparently less threatening active region.

A BIG DANGEROUS SUNSPOT: One of the biggest sunspots in years has just rotated over the sun’s northeastern limb. AR3112 has a mixed-polarity magnetic field that harbors energy for strong X-class solar flares. The appearance of this dangerous sunspot could herald two weeks of high solar activity as it transits the Earth-facing side of the sun.

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Today’s feature article is a review written by Field Gear Editor Tom Christianson.

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But first, the results of the judging for the writing contest…