Economics and Investing:

John R. recommended a piece by Jim Willie: Ultimate Cost of 0% Money

Also from John R.: U.S. foreclosures jumped in the third quarter; Newly initiated foreclosures up more than 30 percent

Venezuela Devaluing Currency to Revive Economy/ (Thanks to Dan L. for the link.)

Items from The Economatrix:

Dude, Where’s My Job?  

Gold Hits Three-Week High On Weak Dollar  

Energy Stocks Rally to Fresh Two-Year Highs

US Dollar Seen Rising in 2011 After Rough 2010   (JWR is dubious…)

10% Brits Will Be Jobless in 2011 



Odds ‘n Sods:

Dennis mentioned the Sustainable Local Food and Farm Conference in Grass Valley, California that will be held on January 22, 2011.

   o o o

Our changing sun. Solar max by the middle of the decade? Major flares?

   o o o

A World in Crisis: What the thirties tell us about today. (Thanks to John R. for the link,)

   o o o

Beau spotted a web site with a lot of military field manuals. Most of the manuals can be downloaded and saved or printed.  

   o o o

The Polish Rosomak APC Debuts in Afghanistan



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“He that believeth on the Son hath everlasting life: and he that believeth not the Son shall not see life; but the wrath of God abideth on him.” – John 3:36 (KJV)



Notes from JWR:

The folks in Queensland, Australia that have been inundated are in our prayers. This catastrophe should serve as a reminder for everyone living in lowland areas to be prepared!

Today we present another two entries for Round 32 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 250 round case of 12 Gauge Hornady TAP FPD 2-3/4″ OO buckshot ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $240 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, B.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and C.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.) , and B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value.

Round 32 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Thoughts on SHTF Communications, by Carl L.

The scope of this article: I was involved in a discussion in the SHTF411 chat-room regarding SHTF radio communications.  Being a licensed Amateur Radio (ham) operator, I jumped in and put my two cents into the mix.  In the course of that discussion, I was asked to write something up on the subject.  

Now, I am no expert on the subject and to be sure.  I sometimes feel that I am the least qualified among my peers.  With that in mind, please understand that much of what I’ve written in this essay is only my opinion and there will be many other more qualified opinions out there.  As such, rebuttal and corrections are welcome.  We all have many things to learn, and I am no exception.   A bit about me: I have been an Amateur Radio operator for about 15 years now.  

I am a no-code technician class, which enables me the use of bottom tier Amateur Radio privileges.  That means that I don’t engage in long distance ham communications over HF frequencies.  I can, however, use any frequencies assigned to the amateur bands, 6 meters (about 54 Megahertz) and above.  My interest in Amateur Radio was formed back in college because my advisor was an avid ham guy.  But I have no real interest in progressing further within the Amateur Radio hobby because my primary purpose for becoming involved in ham radio was that it gave me another outlet to apply my knowledge in electronics.  There is plenty of opportunity for improving my electronics and radio skills at 6-meters and above.  In fact, the real motivator was to provide communications between my wife and I because we couldn’t afford cell phones back in those days, and getting our ham licensees has served us well, from that point of view.   I have been an active participant in the field of electronics ever since I can remember – even at the age of about 5 or 6 years old.  I have a degree in Electronics Technology.  I chose the technology route, rather then a full engineering degree because a technology degree is aimed more at hands-on knowledge, rather then strictly theoretical.  I love working out on the manufacturing floor and felt that sitting at a desk would drive me even more Everyone then calls me loony, but without the mental stress of being cooped up in a four-walled cubical.  

General comments: The conversation in the chat room started out with some of the more mundane technical aspects of radio communications, such as what type radio to use, etc…  But in reality, before you run out and buy some radios, it would be wise to understand what is really out there, and the benefits, as well as the detractions associated with the huge variety of radio equipment that is available.   Let’s start with my views on CB radio, first.   I first got started with CB when I was about sixteen years old.  My first CB radio was an old Johnson Communications CB radio that used vacuum tubes.  It was a good radio and I got many years use out of the thing.  They were quite forgiving.  In fact, I used the metal springs of my bed as an antenna.  If you tried that with a modern day radio, the RF finals would blow out in a matter of a second or two.   From my point of view, the CB (about 27 to 28 Megahertz) is too public for use in a SHTF scenario.  Plus, the typical inexpensive CB radio only has 40 channels, while the better radios also have upper and lower side-band.  While CB would be better then nothing, I think the construction of hand-held CB radios is sub-standard and they are bulky.  I would stay away from CB, if at all possible.  

Then there is the Family Radio Service (FRS).  As the name implies, this radio service was intended to be used for family activities, such as camping, hiking, bicycle riding, boating, hunting and other general purpose family communications activities.  The advantage of FRS over CB is that, while CB uses Amplitude Modulation (AM), and is very interference prone while, FRS uses Frequency Modulation (FM), is relatively noise free.  A considerable disadvantage to FRS might be that, it operates on a much higher frequency and therefore its operation is typically only good for “Line-Of-Sight” communications.  Bear in mind that, if you can’t see the other radio, you can’t communicate with that other radio.  Basically, if there are hills or buildings between you and the other individual you are trying to communicate with, quality and reliability of the communications will be severely degraded.   CB, on the other hand, is more dependent on atmosphere conditions.  We have all heard of the term “Skip”.  Skip occurs when the atmosphere is in such a condition that radio waves traveling up into the atmosphere can be reflected back to earth, extending the effective range of communications.  But this mode of communications isn’t reliable, as the atmosphere is continually changing.  You may communicate well today, or even next week, but in a month or so, you might not be able to get past “Line-Of-Sight”.   If you want to communicate by radio in the present scenario and do not want to take the time study for an FCC issued Amateur radio license, CB and FRS are probably your best and cheapest alternatives.  And what ever your personal preference is, as well, is perfectly acceptable.  

If you catch a hint that I might be biased toward Amateur radio and the 2-meter band in particular, it’s because I am!  But to be sure, there are sound reasons that I’m biased toward the 2-meter (144-148 MHz) FM band – based on my particular experience in the 2-meter FM band.  I’m biased heavily toward 2-meter FM because I am already heavily invested in the 2-meter Amateur band.  I’d upgrade to a General or advanced license, for sure.  But the expense I’d have to lay out for good HF (High Frequency, or shortwave) equipment is daunting and I’d much rather spend what money I have available on other survival items. Time is short and I want “The biggest bang for my buck!”  I am in this position, mostly because the 2-meter band offered the best alternative to my wife and me when we first got into Amateur radio.  Back then (and even still today) there were (and still are) an abundance of 2-meter repeaters.  Basically, a repeater listens on one frequency and retransmits on another frequency.  The person doing the talking is listening on the frequency that the repeater transmits on, and transmits on the frequency that the repeater is listening on.  If the repeater antenna is placed on a water tower, hill top or mountain top, communications distances can be increased to a hundred miles or more.  In the area where I live, there are about 80 or so repeaters for use.  There are repeaters that allow a person to talk nation wide.  And there are repeaters that connect to the internet and allow world-wide communications.  But for the latter, you need a web-capable radio to accomplish this amazing feat.  The Yaesu FT-250R hand-held radio has these features available within it, allowing it to communicate over the internet to other repeaters incorporating the web-net feature.  

My Radio Equipment:
Currently, I’ve got mostly a hodgepodge accumulation of 2-meter radios.  My mobile units consist of a 50 Watt Yaesu 8900, a 50 Watt Yaesu 2600, a 50 Watt Kenwood and a 25 Watt Alnico packet-only radio.   For hand-held radios I have a 5 Watt Alnico, a Yaesu 5 Watt 50RD, a Yaesu 5 Watt Vx, a Yaesu 5 Watt FT-150R, two Yaesu 5 Watt FT-250R’s and some off-brand thingy I can’t recall by who.  In addition, I have a 35 Watt linear amplifier in the event that a hand-held unit requires more RF power and I have a 160 Watt linear RF amplifier for the mobile/base units.  Note too, every radio I have will operate from 12VDC, making them all prime for emergency operation from any usable car battery.  So, in combination with my solar power system, reliable communications is a virtual guarantee.  If grid power is available, I have a 50 ampere, 13.8 VDC bench-top power supply that will power the 160 Watt linear amplifier and a couple mobile/base radios.  In addition, I have grid powered and solar powered NiMH battery chargers to ensure longevity of operation of all of the hand-held radios.  The only dud in the bunch of hand-held radios I currently have is the is the Yaesu 50RD.  And that is only because I don’t have a battery pack that will hold NiMH AA batteries so, it’s life is limited to the two factory made NiMH battery pack that I have.   My goal is to eventually have a compliment of hand-held radios that are all the exact same make and model.  There are several benefits to this.  One is that I can purchase software that will enable me to program all of them, the exact same way, standardizing on frequency/memory assignments.  Another advantage is that, even though I have mostly Yaesu hand-held radios, they all operate slightly differently, depending on the specific features within them.  With using all the same model radios, members of the retreat group will only need to become familiar with one radio.  And yet another advantage to employing identical radios is that, as radio parts break or fail, they will all use the same parts.  So, battery packs and antennas – the most likely parts to fail – will all be interchangeable.  

I mentioned Digital Packet.  I don’t really know how viable Digital Packet will be in a SHTF scenario.  I certainly wouldn’t want my call sign being continually broadcast 24/7.  But as I expect there will be emergency traffic on Digital Packet, I’ll probably turn off the transmit feature and simply monitor emergency text messages.  One of the major disadvantages with Digital Packet is that it requires a computer to read the text messages.  In a grid-down scenario, this would not be practical as, I’d want that kind of power being used for other more important uses.   Technical Aspects of radio: A thorough coverage of radio is not practical here, but I will attempt to cover some of the every basics.   From a lay person point of view, there are really only a few terms to know.  

The most talked about seems to be Standing Wave Ratio (SWR).  SWR is basically the amount of RF energy that doesn’t make it out of your antenna and is reflected back into your radio.   SWR is a ratio of RF leaving the antenna (out into space) to the RF being reflected back to the transmitter. High SWR values will destroy the output final of your transmitter.  The cause of high SWR is a result of property mismatches between the transmitter output, the transmission cable and the antenna.  The transmitter is inherently designed to match the transmission cable, providing the proper type cable is used.  The main source of high SWR is a result of property mismatches between the transmission cable and the antenna.  While not all of the antenna mismatching is due to improper antenna length, in large part, an antenna can be tuned to lower the SWR of the transmission system by tuning the antenna length.  The ideal SWR is 1:1.1.  This is considered to be a perfect match.   The device that measures the SWR of your transmission system is called an SWR meter.  Most SWR meters are specifically designed for a specific band of operating frequencies.  That is, you can’t generally use the same SWR meter to tune a 2- meter antenna system and a CB or 10-meter HF transmission system, unless specifically designed to do so.  For CB and 10-meter tuning you will need an HF SWR meter and for 2-meters, you will need a VHF/UHF (Very-High/Ultra-High) frequency SWR meter.   Many CB enthusiasts believe that more power equals more distance.  But is simply a myth!  True, for a given antenna setup, more power will give more distance.  But the chances are, a well-tuned antenna will provide greater effective radiated power (the RF power actually leaving your antenna) then would purchasing a linear RF amplifier.  The mode of thinking should be, perfect your antenna first!  Then, if more Effective Radiated Power (ERP) is required – only after getting the best performance out of your antenna – add the linear RF amplifier.  If the Antenna is not performing at its best, you are only wasting money, power and you are more then likely damaging your transmitter, over the long-haul.  If you already own the SWR meter, or if you can borrow one, best transmitter performance is free, save the time spent.  But to spend a few hundred dollars on a 160 Watt RF linear amplifier would be a total waste, if your antenna was the real problem.   In radio communications, RF power isn’t what the linear RF amplifier uses.  RF power is that which leaves the antenna to do useful transmission of the desired information.  So then, I own a 160 watt linear RF amplifier.  If the amplifier is outputting 160 watts, the RF energy being reflected back to the transmitter is 40 watts, negating transmission line losses, I’m only putting 120 Watts of Effective Radiated Power out of the antenna.  This is about an SWR of 1:1.4, which roughly means about 25% or that precious RF power is being wasted as heat at the RF output of my expensive $360 linear RF amplifier.  In terms of effective radiated power, this is a huge loss.  

Antennas:
There are many, many kinds of antennas.  The two most popular are the “Mono-Pole Ground Plane” and the “Yagi”.  The mono-pole ground plane antenna is Omni-directional – meaning that, the RF energy is transmitted in all directions around a 360 degree circle away from the antenna.  A Yagi antenna is directional.  That is, if you point the Yagi antenna in a specific direction, the bulk of the energy emitted from it will be concentrated in only one direction.  If you think about this, with a ground plane type antenna, the RF energy is sent in all directions and this means that there is less energy traveling in any given direction.  The result is shortened distance, but you effectively are able to communicate equally well in all directions, be it for better or for worse.   But with a Yagi antenna, most of the RF energy is directed toward one direction.  What this means is that you will be able to communicate further in the direction in which the antenna is pointing then you could out of the sides and in the back end of the Yagi antenna.  And please note that, because a Yagi is highly directional, this property dictates that some method will be required to rotate the Yagi (directionally) toward those you intend to communicate with.   Each type of antenna has its purpose.  For me, communication on simplex (without the aid of a repeater, or attempting to reach a repeater at a far distance) a Yagi would be best.  But for local two-way (simplex) communications between my wife and me (especially with hopes of maximum privacy) a mono-pole ground plane antenna would be more effective.   Effective communications tactics in a SHTF scenario: In this area I am very inexperienced. 

I know some of the standard Amateur Radio emergency procedures, but a SHTF scenario like what we all are expecting would require communications methods far different than that for emergency communications.  For one thing, Amateur Radio emergency radios communications are set up to make contact in the broadest of ways.  An emergency ham command post would be attempting to communicate with as many services as possible.   But in a SHTF scenario, I’d tend to think that we would want communications with only those within your retreat group or possible adjacent groups that we may have built a common relationship and trust.  As such, all of the radios in the group would necessarily be required to use the minimum ERP possible.  That means the Command & Control center would probably be operating the mobile/base units at the 5 Watt setting and not the 25 or 50 Watt setting.  Likewise, the remote hand-held devices would necessarily be operating on the 0.5 or 1 Watt setting.  For communications at greater distances, I’d insist that the radio be switched over from the monopole ground plane antenna to the Yagi, and at the lowest power setting that provided reliable communications.  Remember, the Yagi is directional in nature, so all of the energy from the other 280 or so degrees will be concentrated into the remaining 80 degrees, extending communications to a proportionally further distance.   Each member in the group should be well trained on the communications methods that have been established based on some standard of best practices – but those best practices must be decided by the group as a whole, based on your particular situation, or by someone with tactical communications experience.  And that wouldn’t necessarily be me…  

I’d make every individual in the group take on a handle – even the little ones.  That would be some label that will positively identify you within the group, but not to outsiders who might be listening in stealth.   If more then one mobile/base radio is available, use one radio for say, long distance communications or perimeter patrols, and the second unit for internal communications between different activities, such as gardening, medical, mechanical, etc…   Other forms of communications: One form of communications that I believe will be invaluable will be shortwave radio.  While this is mainly a one-way communications method, it will probably provide information from hams, as well as important international information.  Of note, When Iraq invaded Kuwait , I heard some of the first international broadcasts of that event – long before the event was revealed to the U.S. public by the MSM.  In fact, it was so shocking my wife didn’t believe me when I first told her about the invasion.  She thought I was listening to some foreign propaganda.  My wife took the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq more seriously when she was told that she was being deployed to Saudi Arabia, where she then spent the next nine months as a “Desert Rat.”  

If/when you do purchase a shortwave radio, don’t get cheap!  Get a Grundig or comparable quality shortwave radio.  I have two Grundig shortwave radios with a Radio Shack label.  The older shortwave radio is more then 23 years old.  It still works perfectly.  And I’m so confident in this radio, I use it as an alarm clock to wake me every day to go to work.  The newer short wave radio is currently Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) protected [by storing it is a Faraday enclosure].  It is every bit as good quality as the older radio, but about two thirds the size.  I spent somewhere between $200 and $250 for each of these short wave radios.  They were one of the best purchases I’ve ever made and I wouldn’t hesitate to do it again.   Another device that might be of importance is a general purpose scanner.  While I’ve had one or two scanners over the years, they aren’t something I’ve spent a lot of time getting to know.  But to be sure, if you do decide to purchase a scanner, don’t hesitate to spend the money on a good quality unit – it will repay you many times over.  

 

Some Useful Links to Amateur Radio Information:

Where it all begins, The ARRL

Testing Preparation

Further Study

Basic radio

More learning

Places to buy gear

Shortwave tutorial

Shortwave Listening 



Physical Fitness For Survival, by Rob B.

With all the many choices and ways of how to prepare for a natural or man induced and instigated crisis, one detail that is critical and mostly overlooked is being relatively physically fit.  Yes it is time to face your fear of physical activity, but that is why I am writing this article, so you can have a better understanding of the amazing creation know as the human body.  Having spent most of my life in some form of sport or physical job situation, I want to share what I have learned about ways to regain and maintain a healthy you.  First of all, our bodies are designed in such a way, that with consistent exercise, yes I used the E word, you will see positive results.  Hey, if things get as bad as folks say they will, the least of your problems right now is taking that half hour walk or bike ride or stair climb or hike or, well whatever you do, start out by doing something that raises your heart rate to around 70% of your maximum heart rate.  Oh, you say you don’t know what your maximum heart rate is. 

Here is a basic way to estimate your maximum heart rate:  Anyone in their 30s, you can use 180 as your max heart rate.  It doesn’t matter right now as much as how close this is in reality because it will simply give you something to find the 70%, and for people in their 40s, for you folks let’s use 170.  Now for anyone in their 50s, you use 160 safely.  For anyone older, you can see I lower the max by 10 points for every 10 year span.  Alright now, once you have your max, times it by .70 or 70% on a calculator and you should come up with the heart rate you need to maintain for at least 30 minutes.  An example is of a man 45 years old.  He would start with 170 X .70 which comes to 119 beats per minute and maintains this heart rate for 30 minutes or longer.  The important thing is that your heart and your muscles and ligaments and tendons need time to adjust to any physical activity.  This level of intensity will give your body the ability to begin the way back to a better fitness level and not over work it so not to end up tearing those tight tendons or ligaments that need to be reminded how to work longer than the walk from your car to the couch in your house. 

Here in our wonderful United States, it is a sad but true fact that the majority of Americans are out of shape, and I am not referring to having “6 pack” abdominal muscles or less than 10% body fat.  That is not the type of conditioning you need to be for better survival, when in fact. having between 20% and 25% body fat is better because there is the possibility you may have to go without eating your 3 meals a day, and your body will thank you for those fat reserves.  What is important is your inner body fitness level, namely your heart and lungs.  These two organs play key roles in circulating the necessary blood, i.e. oxygen to your muscles and every area within your body, so it can function as efficiently as possible.  Now back to your workout schedule.  After four weeks of exercising for a minimum of 30 minutes at least 3 days per week at 70% of your max , you should notice some positive changes taking place in your body.  I will warn you, hang in there because after starting your exercising program, the first week or two your body will realize there are stored up toxins that it wants to get rid of and the symptoms can cause a sense of nausea.  Hey, you don’t want to be having to walk 10 miles to the nearest water supply in a time of crisis, and not be in better condition at that time, so keep exercising now, and you can be the one to volunteer to go get that water and enjoy doing it too.  Those first two weeks are usually the hardest, so stick to the program and you will be glad you did, I know. 

Now that you have finished your 4 weeks and now that you completed your “base” or foundation for exercising, you will be ready to increase your heart rate to 80% of your max.  Multiply what your max heart rate with .80 or 80%.  To make it easier, for someone in their 30s, your exercise heart rate is 144 beats per minute.  For someone in their 40s, yours is 136.  For someone in their 50s, yours is 128.  These numbers may seem low to you but they are in the range for your body to continue to get fitter.  Exercise at this level for another 4 weeks but add an additional day so you are working out 4 days per week at a minimum of 30 minutes each day you hit the road or the treadmill or whichever form of exercise you have chosen.  You will find that some days you will feel strong and refreshed and other days it may be a challenge to do this, but again, NOW is the time to invest in your health and not when your car runs out of gas and you still have 15 miles to reach your home or local “community” center.  The benefits of exercise can be better sleep, more energy because of your body receiving more oxygen more efficiently, and a better mental attitude.  Finally, to give you a sense of accomplishment, in two months time, with this plan,  you will have exercised 28 days, almost a full month.  How many of your friends will be able to boast about that? 

The foregoing basic plan should give you an excellent start to regain and help you with becoming fitter.  After your first two months, you should continue to find ways to give your body what it needs to be prepared for the physical demands you may face in a crisis.  If you are wanting to gain strength after having a base of conditioning, remember to start with the mindset that Rome wasn’t built in a day and our bodies won’t grow stronger unless you stick to a program longer than 2 weeks out of the year.  You can be creative on what type of ways you gain strength.  It doesn’t take 30 minutes to build strength but you have to find something that puts stress on your muscles without damaging them by trying to lift something that you might be able to lift less than 5 times in a row.  I suggest you use a weight or object that allows you to raise it or lift a minimum of 10 times in a row or in one “set”.  If you think you need to lift like “Arnold”, you are incorrect.  Your body and muscles will respond to being worked and if you develop a routine you can enjoy, it will become a part of your life and you will see positive results. 

The number of days typically to work on strength exercises is 3 to 4 days with alternating days of upper body and lower body workouts.  Your body needs time to rest and recover.  The basic understanding is that taxing your muscles requires time for them to respond by the muscles fibers thickening to accommodate the increased “workload”.  It is pretty amazing how our bodies can adjust in order to gain strength and endurance.  So are you ready to begin?  This is not a contest.  You as an individual only need to focus on yourself and not make the mistake of comparing how good or how bad of conditioning you have with someone else.  Take that first step towards a better you.  Remember to pray for God to guide you and to send forth His truth and mercy to our land.



Letter Re: Greenbackism is Not The Solution

Regarding the recent link to The Daily Bell‘s discussion of state-owned banks (Brownian Schism–Ellen Brown Restoring Credit with a Publicly-owned Bank: The Model of the Bank of North Dakota), economist Dr. Gary North has shredded and exposed Ellen Brown as a statist.

The siren song of Greenbackism is entrancing Congressmen like Dennis Kucinich and even normally reliable commentators like Karl Denninger.

Fiat credit, either through Greenbackism or state-owned bank, leads only to misery, not prosperity.

Godspeed to you and yours. – B.G. in Wisconsin.

JWR Replies: SurvivalBlog readers may also be interested in this recent piece by Dr. North: How to Defend the Free Market Gold Coin Standard: Stop Defending the Government Counterfeits.



Economics and Investing:

Lee H. sent this: China cutting rare earth exports to the world by 10+%. China provides 97% of rare earths to the world.

Peter Schiff: Home Prices Are Still Too High. (Thanks to G.G. for the link.)

Steve C. sent a link to an article quoting Marc Faber: Long-Term US Treasurys Are ‘Suicidal Investment’

Items from The Economatrix:

Fewer Join Unemployment Rolls; Good Sign for 2011  

Stocks Down Slightly As Investors Lock In 2010  

Oil Settles Below $90 On Government Supply Report   





Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Ring, happy bells, across the snow;
The year is going, let him go;
Ring out the false, ring in the true." – Alfred, Lord Tennyson, Ring Out, Wild Bells, 1850



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 32 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 250 round case of 12 Gauge Hornady TAP FPD 2-3/4″ OO buckshot ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $240 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, B.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and C.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.) , and B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value.

Round 32 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



The TEOTWAWKI Information Hunt, by Ed P.

Wouldn’t it be nice to have a survival book that tells you how to get gasoline out of an abandoned gas station with no electricity? (Why do people keep looking for the key?) Or how about a way to take a propane powered car and convert it so that you can attach one of those canisters stacked outside nearly every retail or convenience store?  Or, that a piece of cigarette pack plastic wrapper can be used to stop a sucking chest wound? And, of course, how about an illustration of how to use that ink pen as a tracheotomy tool? (Click pen or stick pen?) One can still hope. The answers are available when one knows where to look.

Since reading “Alas, Babylon” and “Earth Abides” Americans have been captivated by the concept of TEOTWAWKI.  One need not be a survivalist, per se, when disaster strikes, but one always needs to be prepared when “the balloon goes up.”  The first real preparation training one had might have been in the military (while stationed in Germany) or cleaning a rabbit after a Saturday hunt with dad. Soldiers had to have an emergency evacuation kit to get families out of Europe if war between the USA and the Soviet forces actually happened. Same thing was true in Korea, which is more appropriate nowadays, because of the recent incessant “saber rattling.” And here, one could tack on to the list SARS, H1C1, bird flu, monkey flu/pox, smallpox, or just an extreme variant of the common cold (circa 1900, millions and millions dead). And a squirrel will taste real nice after three days without a can of soup.

The world may be past a total nuclear war, but pandemics (massive quarantine), market crashes (no access to your money), and future terrorist attacks are a fact of life. It has been said that the United States is only three days away from starving; if the semi-trucks stop running the food stuffs are not delivered. Scenarios say that a dirty bomb could get set off in Memphis or New Orleans thus blocking the Mississippi River or a dirty bomb could be placed at Houston wiping out the gasoline processing facilities? Hurricane Katrina did a fair job on Houston by crippling American commerce and the economy when the average citizen couldn’t get gas for weeks. And Heaven forbid a tanker ship loaded with explosives gets set to go off at New York, San Francisco, or Long Beach harbors. If any one of these disasters were to happen or there was no gasoline for a month, the average person may be turned into a survivalist by necessity.

All serious survivalists have questions about “what is the best we can do” to prepare for that disaster lurking in the near future which just might come true. There are great books and resources out there that make serious lists and “to do’s” to help get one prepared. Of course, most reliable sources make the statement that “you can’t prepare for every situation” and the contained information is probably limited.  Can’t one be prepared for “most” of them even if there are differing circumstances and scenarios?  Yes, one can with a little help and a little pointing in the right direction.

Most savvy survivors know that the first thing needed in a desperate situation is water, food and then shelter. Weapons are the next must.  Everyone knows that it would be good to have ambulance driver, or a cop, or Kung Fu sword expert for their best friend (or Amish down the street) when real disaster strikes. The EMT (ambulance) and the cop have knowledge and access to resources that just are not available to the everyday somebody. The martial arts expert may keep you alive a little longer (may not help if you are stranded in the desert) and one can certainly learn from any of them.  It also may be nice to know someone who can use a primitive forge, birth a baby or who can make a real bow and arrow. One should take Krav Maga classes. One should have several weapons available (more bullets help) and, please, try to be best friends with a cop (they need solid, rational people, too).

The survival expert reads extensively all types of survival books and manuals. The Foxfire Book series should grace your bookshelf (you know you love butter, but you have to catch the cow first). But, what the novice really needs is more practical knowledge that is easy to remember, practical, and available.  Uncle Bob, whose cabin you are heading for, can’t use the Internet if the power is down. But that fancy propane powered generator in the basement would be super useful in getting the power back on (one must keep it hidden and quiet as the noise attracts varmints). Having the paper copy of such titles as “Special Operations Forces Medical Handbook,” a copy of “The Worst-Case Scenario Survival Handbook”, Mosby’s EMT-Basic Textbook, a copy of “The Encyclopedia of Country Living ”, the “SAS Survival Handbook” or even “Introduction to Surgery” (how does one stitch up a wound?) should be essential additions to one’s arsenal of knowledge.  Of course, there are also many free texts available like “Where There Is No Dentist ” and “Book for Midwives” that are downloadable from Hesperian.org; nice to know stuff indeed. Make sure that you books are all kept waterproof.

The lists of survival skills can be overwhelming, but one needs to do a little research.  The “Encyclopedia Britannica” (1911), “How Things Work”, veterinary medicine (husbandry), beer brewing, basic organic chemistry, a still, windmills, hydroponic gardening, a 1900s book of formulas on how to make soap and other simple needs, etc., etc. can start the list. One can quickly see that a near library of texts is necessary to jump start yourself into at least the first few months of staying alive and doing so in measurable style. 

Our friends in science fiction have also given us a horde of end of the world titles that contain numerous tidbits about how to be successful in a very hostile, left-over, world.  “Lucifer’s Hammer” “Wolf And Iron”, “The Stand”, various zombie-type novels and others, all contain useful information (kudos to the authors).  There are flocks of end time novels and sources that can be used to garner information about staying alive in face of very ugly circumstances. A cornucopia of sources and texts are available if one does a small bit of digging (no, the books don’t have to be buried).

“How do I start?” one may ask. Where is the beginning of the knowledge that is needed and “how deep does the rabbit hole go?” By regularly visiting this blog and reading this article, part of the battle is over.  Identifying a problem is half the cure.  One does not need to spend mountains of money on food storage, automatic weapons, bunkers nor pricey “survival” books.  The basics can be as simple as the “Boy Scouts Handbook” (preferably an older edition). Yes, it will take time to visit the Krav Maga class and attend weapons safety and shooting training. One doesn’t need to join the military to pick up most of these skills in day to day living.  Ninety percent of one’s staying alive boils down to common sense (the good old fashioned kind). The other ten percent comes from luck as the odds are one will not survive a massive civilization wide disaster in any case. But, one can be aware of the possible threats around the daily environment and can be mentally prepared. Buying a hand cranked powered radio and flashlight is just down right simple; and cheap (hooray, no batteries).  Having a sturdy knife, aspirin, matches that are waterproof (dip the heads in wax) and strike anywhere (that little sandpaper thing won’t work if it is wet), candles, a week’s worth of canned food, extra bullets, duct tape (fixes almost anything), extra water and possibly a decent first aid kit are essential.  Can’t leave home without it important, and this is just the beginning.

Don’t be fooled into buying tons of fancy kits at outrageous prices that may or may not contain what you “might” need.  One can build a fantastic, workable, expandable kit easily and economically and the above items thrown into a backpack is a good start. Maybe taking the example of most Mormons, who keep a year’s supply of food on hand per their custom, is a good way to go if one has the money and the space to store the stuff.  One can’t carry that much of a chuck wagon and the horse might get eaten. If it is stored at the up-in-the-mountains retreat, one has to get there safely (no one following) and in one piece.  At the very least, one should have a “get out of Dodge” plan and a kit ready and several means of initiating that plan. The plan might contain places to meet, time tables, message drops, a bicycle, and code words.  Yep, someone may have kidnapped your loved one and you need to hear a code word to make sure things are as they should be; otherwise survival becomes rescue. One movie even portrayed a means of powering a motorized dirt bike by using chicken manure for methane fuel (still looking for this one).

A little bit of planning will go a long way in making a smooth transition from “normal” to “survival” mode. Reading a mountain of material is not accomplished in a short time and one needs to foster a mindset of keeping things ready, way before the “rogue event” takes place. The route to survival is definitely a preparation effort.  Thinking and procuring the lists of needed items ahead of time will save mountains of grief and “what ifs” later. Rainy days spent reading (emergency medical handbook), sunny days spent stocking up (watching for bulk sales of dried goods and canned food) and preparation that takes place every day is necessary. Doing one’s training now, in small increments, makes the knowledge one needs to survive more easily thought of. And there is no panic or hurry. Survival is an ongoing process and a search for ongoing information and preparation is a lesson in time management.  If one has the need and the means, now, to avoid a disastrous situation on easy days, then the “terror” will appear much smaller when the event does happen.  Self-control, patience and being ready for the unknown will pare down that “worry,” because one is prepared and equipped to face survival with surer, rational knowledge.  Half the battle will be won when one does not go into shock worrying about “what if.” And when the TEOTWAWKI happens, all the preparation and reading will pay off handsomely.  Get ready. Do it now.



The U.S. Dollar’s Prospects in the New Year

As the editor of SurvivalBlog, I regularly get those “timing” e-mails from readers, asking me for my prediction of when the U.S. Dollar will collapse. I can’t provide you a date, but you don’t need to be a past recipient of the Nobel Prize for Economics to see some crucial facts and draw some logical conclusions. Consider the following:

  • The Federal Reserve recently became the largest holder of U.S. Treasury debt, surpassing China and Japan. The neo-Weimar monetization that is dubbed “Quantitative Easing” is wildly inflationary.
  • The number of dollars in circulation is galloping, and that can only result in inflation.
  • The government’s annual outlay just to pay the interest on the National Debt is nearly half a trillion dollars. The charts show a decline since 2008, but that is illusory. The decrease in interest payment obligations is only because interest rates have been kept artificially low, and because the Federal Reserve is monetizing the debt. (With Quantitative Easing, the government is effectively buying its own debt, with magically created dollars.
  • The U.S. dollar is has lost 96% of its purchasing power since 1913. The gradual effects of continuing inflation are only noticed by a few. But the Generally Dumb Public (the other “GDP”) is oblivious to the fact that they have been robbed by currency debasement and inflation.
  • The Treasury Department conservatively estimates that the U.S. debt will be $19.6 trillion within four years. (Many private estimates are substantially higher.)
  • The total long term government obligations including Social Security and pensions are variously estimated at from $48 trillion to $65.5 trillion. That would exceed the gross domestic product of all of the nations on Earth.
  • Federal government indebtedness is approaching 100% of GDP. The only time that it was ever higher was in the 1940s and 1950s because of the huge debts piled up in fighting World War II, and in funding post-war rebuilding of Europe under the Marshall Plan.
  • The Federal Reserve banking cartel finally admitted that they lavished $3.3 trillion in new liquidity and in excess of $9 trillion in short term loans. But in doing so, they downplayed the fact that a good portion of those trillions was used bailing out soured or failed mortgage-backed securities (MBS) derivatives contracts.

In essence, the gig is up. Starting in 2011 or 2012, I expect foreign creditors to demand substantially higher yields to justify their continuing to buy U.S. Treasury paper. Once that happens, prevailing interest rates will jump, and that will stifle economic growth, resulting in stagflation. Interest rates jumping to double digits could result in interest payments on the National Debt becoming the largest single annual outlay for the government– even bigger than even that for the Department of Defense. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar will see a sharp degradation as its status as the world’s reserve currency. A death spiral for the U.S. Dollar would then ensue.

It is difficult to predict exactly how the end game for the Dollar will play out, and the timing thereof. It is especially hard to predict the timing of a currency collapse because the key triggers are always subtle psychological tipping points. But once enough foreign creditors give up hope for the Dollar, there will be a wholesale rout.

Some Specific Recommendations:

  • Watch the US Dollar Index (USDI) closely. A drop below 72 would be a very bad thing.
  • Watch for jumps in interest rates.
  • Look for announcements of either failed Treasury auctions, or “mystery buyers” that save the day for auctions. The latter will indicate more monetization.
  • Watch commodities prices. (In the midst of a global recession, commodity prices should be weak. But they aren’t. This indicates that they are being used as tangible safe havens in times of currency and credit turmoil.)
  • Monitor international news on the global credit and currency markets.
  • You can largely ignore stock market indices, since stocks are manipulated. As a last resort, the government may covertly buy large blocks of stock, or overtly nationalize all IRAs and 401(k)s.
  • Get out of the stock market, stock market funds, hedge funds, and municipal bonds,
  • Plan ahead for mass inflation. Protect yourself from further declines in the U.S. Dollar by diversifying into tangibles. Common caliber ammunition should be at the top of your list.
  • Expect another 20%+ drop in residential real estate. Once a double dip in the economy is confirmed, commercial real estate is likely to also collapse.
  • Count on higher taxes (at all levels) and endless bailout schemes.
  • Don’t count on getting much from your pension fund, whether it is public or private. (And even if it does pay in full, it will be in grossly inflated dollars.)
  • Expect continuing bank failures and perhaps some bank runs. Monitor the safety of your own banks.
  • Complete your food storage, self defense, home medical supply, gardening, canning, alternative energy, and Alpha Strategy purchasing. Train with what you have.
  • Round out your bookshelf with key references that you will need to be self-sufficient.
  • Team up with like-minded families. Establish a well-stocked rural retreat with good soil and plentiful water that is well-removed from major population centers. Move there, get your garden in, and plant fruit and nut trees, ASAP!
  • Get in shape and lose your addictions. The physical demands of surviving the unfolding multi-decade depression will be tremendous.
  • Get right with God and pray hard. Darker days are drawing near.


Letter Re: Better Than Sterno

Dear JWR:
I have used Sterno alcohol gel fuel when camping or hunting for years. About a dozen years back I discovered a better product than Sterno for about one tenth the cost. My local Sam’s Club sells a hand sanitizer under their Maker’s Mark label. A two liter jug of this with a hand pump sells for as low as $5.50 when it is on sale. It has a built in hand pump and I always have one in the shop. I started using this as a substitute for Sterno when I was packing for a fishing trip and discovered I was out of Sterno. I remembered reading the label on the hand sanitizer and it said it was 70% Ethyl Alcohol so I tested it and it definitely burned hot. I know it is a hotter fire than Sterno. (A friend has an Infrared thermometer and we did comparison tests with Sterno versus the hand sanitizer and the sanitizer burned a lot hotter) and it has a pleasant smell.

Since my tests, I’ve started filling empty Sterno cans with this and it works great. My only problem with it is that the flame is almost invisible. Do any SurvivalBlog readers have an idea of some thing that could be mixed in with the hand sanitizer that would make the flame more visible? When I am the only one in the area when I am using this I am not worried. However, I would hate to see someone accidentally get burned.

JWR Replies: For use as fuel, it is best to use un-scented hand sanitizer.
There are chemical salts that add colors to flame, but I’d be concerned that they might be toxic or induce rust on exposed metal, even in small concentrations. Some chlorides might be safe, but you should avoid using any chlorates, nitrates, and permanganates. (I’ve read that those are inherently dangerous.) Reader L.P. suggested simply adding a little kerosene to color the flame yellow. She notes: “Ethanol and kerosene mix easily. It will burn even hotter with a little kerosene added.”



Economics and Investing:

C.T.L. sent this: Bailed-Out Banks Slip Toward Failure.

From The Daily Bell: Brownian Schism–Ellen Brown Restoring Credit with a Publicly-owned Bank: The Model of the Bank of North Dakota. The article begins: “Neither states in the U.S. nor those in the eurozone can print their own money, but they can own banks, which can create bank credit on their books just as all banks do.”

El Jefe Jeff E. suggested this Wall Street Journal report: The Price of Silver is Soaring.

Items from The Economatrix:

Silver Will Be Worth More Than Gold  

If You Haven’t Bought Silver Yet, Read This  

Energy, Agriculture, Gold And Silver Bullion–Protectors From The Coming Crisis  

Baby Boomers Retirements In Jeopardy