The Group Think Trap, by Doctus

The world is falling apart around us.  The economy is in shambles and the moral fiber that once made this country great has been reduced to nothing but tattered rags.  The once individualistic American who mistrusted government is now willing to give everything over to government for a modicum of false safety.  The entrepreneurial and innovative American has been boxed in by tough regulations and taxes.  In short, the American spirit is being snuffed out by the modern progressivism that has taken hold of our once great country.

Amidst all this doom and gloom and with little prospect for a bright future, I decided to go back to school and get a certification to do what I’ve discovered is my life’s passion.  My thought process was simple, if I’m stuck in the American hand basket and our final destination is some hot place other than the beaches of Miami, why not make the most of the time left I have living in the world as we know it before I am faced with the end of the world as we know it.  If someone is willing to pay me to do what I enjoy doing…why not be certified to do it?  Who knows, maybe my grim outlook is wrong and I will have all the advantages that my parents and grandparents had to build a good life, although I highly doubt I’m wrong.

One of the classes I took this past semester was a communications class.  Despite my already completed BA, I was expected to take a rudimentary communications class that was populated with hard working immigrants who were barely able to speak English.  Despite the obstacles of the class, the professor communicated very well and actually taught some really valuable information.  One communications theory we learned and spent a significant amount of time discussing was a communications theory called Group Think.

“Reaching consensus in a group is often confused with finding the right answer”. – Norman Mailer

Group Think, in a nutshell, is a theory which states that, in an effort to make decisions without conflict, the various viewpoints held by individual members of the group are conformed to the general viewpoint, thus stifling debate.  In theory it sounds true; practically we’ve all experienced it.  When was the last time you made vacation plans with several other families or tried to organize a church fundraiser with a committee of people?  The classic example of Group Think we discussed in class was the decision by NASA to launch the space shuttle Challenger [on January 28, 1986].  Some scientist at NASA presented the team with objections and advised the decision makers to postpone the shuttle launch.  Facing another embarrassing delay, the NASA decision makers succumbed to Group Think and seven astronauts lost their lives. Conflict is avoided and the best course of action is not always the course of action actually taken. 

Group Think can arise from three different sources: group cohesiveness, structural faults, and situational context.  Group cohesiveness is the force that binds the group together, whether it is an emotional glue or common task.  Group Think can arise from structural faults in the group.  These faults can be, but are certainly not limited to, the insulation of the group, lack of impartial leadership, or the similarity of the group members’ social backgrounds and ideology.  Finally, the situational context of the group can lead to Group Think within the group.  Again, this is not an exhaustive list but some external situations include highly stressful external threats, recent failures, excessive difficulties on the decision-making task, and moral dilemmas.  Group cohesiveness, structural faults, and situational context all put pressure on the group and could cause Group Think to set in. 
How do you know if your group is falling victim to Group Think?  Irving Janis, the leading researcher who developed the Group Think theory, observed eight symptoms of group think.

  • Illusions of invulnerability; creating excessive optimism and encouraging risk taking.
  • Unquestioned belief in the morality of the group, causing members to ignore the consequences of their actions.
  • Rationalizing warnings that might challenge the group’s assumptions.
  • Stereotyping those who are opposed to the group as weak, evil, biased, spiteful, impotent, or stupid.
  • Self-censorship of ideas that deviate from the apparent group consensus.
  • Illusions of unanimity among group members; silence is viewed as agreement.
  • Direct pressure to conform placed on any member who questions the group, couched in terms of “disloyalty”
  • Mind guards — self-appointed members who shield the group from dissenting information

How do you avoid Group Think?  This question is debated among the various experts and psychologist who study Group Think.  Seven different ways of avoiding Group Think have been devised.

  • Leaders should assign each member the role of “critical evaluator”. This allows each member to freely air objections and doubts.
  • Higher-ups should not express an opinion when assigning a task to a group.
  • The organization should set up several independent groups, working on the same problem.
  • All effective alternatives should be examined.
  • Each member should discuss the group’s ideas with trusted people outside of the group.
  • The group should invite outside experts into meetings. Group members should be allowed to discuss with and question the outside experts.
  • At least one group member should be assigned the role of devil’s advocate. This should be a different person for each meeting.

Why should the readers of SurvivalBlog be interested in a communications theory?  What does this theory have to do with prepping?   Have you organized a mutual assistance group (MAG)? Then expect to see some Group Think.  Many articles posted in this blog describe different methods of organizing a MAG and what exactly are the requirements for their specific MAG.  I remember one article not too long ago that had very harsh and unbending rules in order to be a part of this particular MAG.  After learning about this theory of Group Think, I would be concerned about being in that guys MAG. 

So, how does one form a MAG and avoid Group Think.  It seems that some of the methods outlined above violate some of the cardinal rules of prepping.  Secrecy is king in the prepping world.  To give any indication to non-preppers the type of prepping you and your MAG are doing would make you vulnerable and potential targets.  So the directions to consult outside experts wouldn’t really apply.  Or would it?
 
Differing opinions in a group is a necessity when setting up a MAG.  Sure there needs to be the common purpose and even a common religion.  But each member of your MAG must have a different background.  The different backgrounds assure diversity of thought.  To take it one step further, expert consultation must also be a part of your MAG’s modus operandi.  How do you do this and still maintain your secrecy?  While we still have the internet, one could use some of the many discussion boards to seek other preppers opinions.  You maintain anonymity and get outside advice. 

There must be a devil’s advocate in your MAG.  Or better yet, have each member of your MAG cultivate the devil’s advocate spirit.  As Glenn Beck constantly says, “Question everything.”  Developing your ability to think critically helps you assume the role of devil’s advocate.  When your MAG meets, don’t take things or a certain opinion as a given.  Try to examine all sides of the coin.  Question your conclusions.  Ultimately, the questioning has to stop somewhere and a decision has to be made.  To avoid Group Think, I would recommend excluding the MAG leader from the discussion and debate process.  After discussion and debate, come up with possible solutions.  Then present the possible solutions to the MAG leader.  By doing this, the MAG leader will have an unbiased opinion of the solutions, untainted by the discussion and debate.  He/she will be able to see the pros and cons of each solution and will make a decision without the pressures of Group Think.

Another practical application to the Group Think theory is applying it to the prepper theory in general.  It is accepted wisdom on survivalblog.com that one needs to prepare for a grid down situation.  While I agree with the grid down threat, it seems to me to be a small threat and certainly not the only threat that needs to be examined.  What real world experience makes one think that we are going to lose all electricity and be thrown back into the dark ages?  Standard reading for the prepper crowd is Patriots; my compliments to the author.  While the story is great fiction, will the world collapse as Mr. Rawles has written it?  Will the American government totally collapse?  Will electricity go out and technology cease to exist?   What is the likelihood that we will have to walk around in our BTUs with a battle rifle flung over our shoulder?  Have survivalblog readers become subject to Group Think? 

Consider the fiction of 1984 or Brave New World or Atlas Shrugged.  None of those books have complete societal collapse as the end state. (Atlas Shrugged sort of does, but not in the same way as Patriots.) Rather, these famous dystopias present a world where government is all knowing or all intrusive.  Is there any prepper out there who has prepared for Big Brother watching you?  Recent stories in the news have the government moving in the direction of 1984; a mileage tax where the government installs a GPS on your car and taxes miles driven; nationwide text message alert system that gives the government access to your phone and number; Drudge refers to Sec. Janet Napolitano as Big Sis. 

What preparations are you making to contend with an all-knowing government?  One can hope society and government collapses under its own debauched weight as Rawles’ fictionalizes.  In some ways life would be easier without government and electricity than life with all an all knowing tyrannical government. Personally, I would rather plow fields with a horse and wooden plow than contend with Big Brother.  So what if government doesn’t fail and Big Bother is watching you?  Then what?  Have you prepared for that situation?  You have the battle rifle and the thousands of rounds of ammo.  But in order to travel to and from work, you have to pass through check points.  Carrying your gun is a definite no-no?  How will you protect yourself?  What weapon will you carry?  These are just some of the questions I have when thinking about prepping for a tyrannical government.

My preparations have taken a different course as of late.  I’ve become convinced that the dark powers directing the destruction of our country will not allow things to totally collapse.  They will maintain control and I will have to learn how to survive in a more tyrannical world.  I’m challenging the common wisdom with my questions, but am I hoping that by doing so, I’m avoiding falling into Group Think.   I’m trying to look at thisof the normal preppers box and come up with ideas.  But I need help.  I would like to throw out the topic seek outside advice. 

How does one prep to live in a world with an all intrusive government?  What preparations need to be made if we are faced with a Big Brother situation?

Four Letters Re: Diabetic Preparedness – Storing Insulin in a Grid Down World

Dear Editor:
Robert M. should also look at a propane refrigerator such as found in campers.  It only takes enough gas to run a pilot light to keep things cold.  A 20 pound propane cylinder will last us several seasons and also do the cooking.  A  200 gallon tank would last for several years if it were only used to cool your medications.  I have seen used propane refrigerators going for next to nothing when people scrap out old campers.  – Bob P.

Hi There,
Kudos to the author who wrote about off-grid electric refrigerators for storing insulin; other options he may wish to consider as part of his contingency planning include: – Propane powered refrigerators.  These tend to be very efficient, particularly if you get a model with a lid that opens upward (like a chest freezer) rather than outward (like most household fridges).  If propane figures heavily into your prep plans for heating or cooking, it is only logical to include high efficiency refrigeration to the mix.  Even if it does not, it bears looking into as another cost effective option. – Frio bags.  These are made by the Frio company in a number of sizes and configurations for the express purpose of keeping insulin cool without refrigeration, using evaporative cooling.  The bags are soaked for several minutes in water and the small crystals inside absorb this water, slowly evaporating it over many hours and keeping the insulin inside cool.  While not quite as cold as a good fridge for long term storage (years), I personally know diabetics that have used them to keep insulin cool in some of the hottest deserts on earth for weeks and months at a time.   Best regards (and hoping my stored insulin lasts longer than TEOTWAWKI) – L.J. 

Mr. Rawles,
Regarding the letter, Diabetic Preparedness – Storing Insulin in a Grid Down World, by Robert M, , a couple of other options might be a kerosene powered refrigerator, or a solar ice maker.

The kerosene powered refrigerator, using 1/4 gal of kerosene per day, would allow a 55 gallon drum to power it for 220 days, and four drums on a pallet would power it for 880 days, over two years.

The solar ice maker mentioned at this web site, http://solaricemaker.com/about.html, produces about 50 Kg of ice each day.

Mr Rawles, 
I follow your blog often and it is a wealth of information that I pull from often. I would like to respond to Robert M. and his issue with insulin. I to have the same problem because my son in a Type 1 diabetic and I would rather die than see him suffer a slow painful death from lack of insulin should TEOTWAWKI happen. As an professionally licensed master electrical contractor for years that has/is experimenting with both wind and solar. I would like to share my findings on this with your readers in the future but the experiment is ongoing for use with pressure water, well pumping and communications. I would though, like to offer some immediate suggestions to Robert.  

First off, if at all possible do not use any kind of motor. If you have to use a motor only DC and certain AC types with a soft start, this I will discuss in a later letter. When using any type alternative power system, any motor or resistance devices like electric heaters or incandescent light bulbs are the biggest drain on a power system either on or off grid, but motors are by far the worst of the three.   

Robert should invest in a propane refrigerator like a Diamond or other quality brand (not an inefficient camper multi fuel type) and not depend on electricity for insulin storage This is what I use to store my sons insulin that I have been storing up in quantity along with rechargeable batteries for his insulin pump and hundreds of syringes an slow acting insulin should the pump fail. I am in the electrical business (well not so much since 2008 LOL) and I would never depend on electricity for my sons insulin storage and as a result his life. Added note: the Diamond LP refrigerator is EMP proof! A double win.  

I have my refrigerator connected to a 1,000 gallon LP tank filled to its 80% maximum of 800 gallons. This will run that 17 cubic foot refrigirator for 12 years if I use it for nothing else! The LP will also store that long. The only other thing I have connected to the LP tank is a very small very efficent 2.5KW 120V Generac camper style generator to use only to supplement my solar panels and wind mills when needed. It can also be used to direct power the 120 VAC soft start well pump to fill a 500 gallon static tank that we can pump water from at 50 psi with a 12V DC pump to two houses and four bathrooms. I do not use a 120 volt motor to distibute the water when off grid, but again I’ll write more on that later.  

I also would like to suggest you find a doctor like I have that is awake and will over prescribe the insulin your wife needs for life so you can save 3 or 4 bottles a month until you can store up what you need for several months. My doctor also prescribed a six month one-time purchase for my son because “he was leaving the country” and we needed it to take with him. Though insurance will not pay for it, I am sure your wifes life is worth it. It was a big cost to me but well worth it. You then can use those six months worth of bottles to rotate out with the new that you purchase always having a supply within expiration dates.  

Good luck Robert and all the others like us that have loved ones that suffer from this or any other drug-dependant disease. – Mike W.

Economics and Investing:

Photo of an Obamaville.

Loyal contributor John R. sent us a capacious pile o’ links:

Paul Ryan Speaks on the “Catastrophic Trajectory” of US Debt – ZeroHedge

Our Peculiar State of Suspended Animation – Charles Hugh Smith

What Will Happen When QE2 Ends? – Dave Cohen

Obama’s debt-limit truth-twisting – Stephen M. Meister

Kicking the Can to the End of the Road – John Mauldin     

Social Security ‘Trust Fund’ to Add $5 Trillion to Debt – Investors.com

Items from The Economatrix:

Stocks Follow LinkedIn IPO Higher

Commodity Rally Sends Stock Indexes Higher

Central Banks Snap Up Gold in First Quarter

US Postal Services Threatens Again to Not Pay Retiree Benefits

Odds ‘n Sods:

This post sums up what a lot of people have been thinking: You Might Be A Psychopath If…

   o o o

The shortages continue: Drugs For Critically Ill In Short Supply. (Thanks to C.D.V. for the link.)

   o o o

Ay, ay, ay: CDC Warns Public to Prepare for ‘Zombie Apocalypse’. How could the CDC use such absurd, illogical imagery to promote a family preparedness campaign? They must have let a few overpaid publicity consultants run amok. Be very careful when you ask PR people to “Do something bold, to catch attention.” Did they ever! (Thanks to Steve C. for the link.)

   o o o

Trapper Mike suggested a short video: Highway numbers aren’t random.

   o o o

Islands in the stream: The extraordinary homemade dams holding back the Mississippi as desperate residents try to save their homes

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The law of the LORD [is] perfect, converting the soul: the testimony of the LORD [is] sure, making wise the simple.

The statutes of the LORD [are] right, rejoicing the heart: the commandment of the LORD [is] pure, enlightening the eyes.

The fear of the LORD [is] clean, enduring for ever: the judgments of the LORD [are] true [and] righteous altogether.

More to be desired [are they] than gold, yea, than much fine gold: sweeter also than honey and the honeycomb.” – Psalm 19:7-10 (KJV)

Note from JWR:

A recent Live Science article, “The Draw of Doomsday: Why People Look Forward to the End” mentions SurvivalBlog. But like most mainstream media reports, it both denigrates and misinterprets the value of preparedness.

—

Today we present another entry for Round 34 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and B.) Two cases of Alpine Aire freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $400 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo , and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, C.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and D.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.) , and B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value.

Round 34 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Diabetic Preparedness – Storing Insulin in a Grid Down World, by Robert M.

I have spent time and money on food and water preparation, on preparing my family plan for emergency situations that might last an extended period of time. I have purchased and prepared medical and hygiene supplies, trying to cover as many areas as I could. Even with this much preparation, there was still one other important issue I needed to address.

In a true TEOTWAWKI situation, a major concern for me and my family is electrical power. This concern isn’t centered on the ability to watch television, listen to music, or even cook food. Those are what I would consider the “perks” of having electricity in such a situation. No…our need is centered on another main fact of our lives…the need for medicinal storage. You see, my wife is type 1 diabetic and requires insulin in order to remain active, healthy, and…well…alive. Insulin is temperature sensitive medication and being unable to store it in ideal conditions puts my wife at a tremendous health risk…one I am not willing to take. We needed a refrigerator and a means to power it…period.

Why is this so important? Here are some facts around insulin storage. It is important to note that these findings are based on my own research and any conclusions you reach should be based on research you have done yourself. Never take someone else’s word for it. Learn the essentials for yourself.

According to the insulin packaging from the manufacturer of the insulin my wife uses, unopened vials of insulin must be kept at temperatures between 36 – 46 degrees Fahrenheit.  Opened and in use insulin vials should be kept at room temperature between 59 – 86 degrees Fahrenheit for easier distribution into the bloodstream. Storing insulin in conditions outside of recommended levels can drastically reduce the effectiveness of that insulin. For example, if it is too cold, insulin can form clots and become useless. If it’s too hot, the insulin loses potency and takes more of it to be effective.  Where we live, if the grid went down for an extended period of time at the wrong time of the year, temperatures could exceed 100 degrees easily. That would drastically reduce the effectiveness of my wife’s insulin. This means that, without a means to refrigerate her insulin, my wife would have to use higher dosages of “weaker” insulin in order to maintain her blood sugar levels. The use of higher dosage amounts would result in a much quicker depletion of her insulin stockpile. Not a very pleasant scenario to think about when faced with the uncertainty of when we would be able to get more insulin for her…if ever. Making it last as long as possible is extremely important.

I had many discussions with my wife on this subject and spent time and money to tackle this area of concern. I have looked at and investigated different options to cover this need for continued electrical power. A key factor for us was being able to begin preparations without breaking our bank account.  We wanted to be able to prepare for tomorrow, but still live and enjoy today.

Below is my assessment of some of the options I have weighed over the past year and my reasons for not choosing them. Once again, keep in mind that my decision is not a final decision that works for everyone. It is the decision that best fits my family from a financial and practical point of view. Your situation may be different and you may feel another option best fits your individual needs.

Generator power: It is completely unrealistic for us, as a family, to afford the major investment of buying a quality generator. Not only does this approach require the investment in the generator itself, it also requires an investment in fuel supplies. The costs of containers for fuel storage, fuel stabilizer, and other safety considerations really start to add up quickly. More importantly, this option is a rather noisy approach. In a true TEOTWAWKI scenario, I don’t want to be drawing attention to the fact that I have power. In an urban environment, a noisy, gas powered generator would be easily noticed and tracked. I would be an instant target for those looking to get something for nothing or simply looking for someone to raid and take what they can from them.

Manual Generator (human power): There is not much I can say here. We have all seen the “bicycle generator” videos. Just too much effort required for minimal results. It may be a cheaper way to go, but the output is not worth the energy I would have to spend to get it. I think I would die of starvation before I could pedal enough power to charge my battery array on which I plan to run a refrigerator.

Wind Turbine: Again, this option requires some investment and know-how that I am not willing to put my time and effort into. Although this option produces free energy, it also requires a lot of material cost that quickly goes above our budget. There are other factors against this option as well. Where I live, the wind is sporadic at best and I would not consistently get the rotation speed I would require to repeatedly recharge my battery array of choice. The high profile of a wind turbine is, once again, a security issue. It is a major attention grabber that I can’t afford to have around in an urban environment. Drawing that level of attention is extremely dangerous when most people around us have not bothered to prepare at all. Again, why make my family targets for those looking to get something for nothing, those raiding others in hopes of gaining supplies.

Photovoltaic (PV) Panels: This brings us to my final option, one that makes the most sense to me and my family from both an economic and strategic position. We get 280+ days of sun where we live. There is virtually no noise, and if set up properly there are ways of properly concealing solar panels from plain sight. In our neighborhood, we have large back yards and high block wall fences separating one house from the next. These high block wall fences enable me to ground mount my panels low enough to the ground and at the correct angle to capture the most amount of southern sun and still keep them from being visible from the street or from a neighbor’s back yard. After discussing this option with my wife, it seemed the most sensible way to go.

I started by purchasing a pre-fabricated set of solar panels from a local hardware chain (45 watts, total). This set was a good investment as it gave me all the tools I needed in order to gain a better understanding of what solar power is all about and how it works. The system came with 3-15 watt solar panels, a charge controller (which is vital and keeps the batteries from over-charging or over-depleting), and two 5 watt [DC] fluorescent lights on 12 foot cords. The set also came with various cords for use with the charge controller which allows for direct connection to recharge 3, 5, 6, and 9v appliances and devices. It also has a 12 volt cigarette lighter plug (like those found in your car), so a 12 VDC appliance can be plugged directly into the charge controller if needed. I charge my iPod Nano and my cell phone on it regularly without issue.

This 45 watt system will produce an average of 2.25 amps per hour during daytime hours (roughly 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.). Using a mulitmeter, I have actually taken panel output readings at various times of the day, several different days during different seasons to support the 2.25 amps average. Some hours it is less (like early morning and late afternoon) and sometimes it produces more (like the hours between 9:30 am and 3:30 pm). This is enough output to maintain my pair of deep cycle marine batteries.

This is where things get a bit on the technical side. We have to figure out the capacity of the battery bank and maximum load (the amount of power that can be used in a given hour) for that array. Each of the marine deep cycle batteries is rated at 105 amp hours each (210 total amp hours). Research has indicated that in order to preserve and extend battery life, you really want to use only 80% of that available power. That would give a total of 168 amp hours (210 x .80). To determine the maximum hourly amp load level, take that 168 and divide it by 24 (20 is the recommended load time used in these type of calculations, but assuming it will be used around the clock is to error on the side of caution). This gives a total hourly amp load of 7 amps. The total load is impressive, but you need to remember that the actual load should not exceed the solar panel array’s ability to recharge the battery bank. As I stated earlier in this article, the panels put out an average of 2.25 amps per hour over the 10 hours of daylight that are strong enough to generate power via the solar panels. That’s 22.25 amps every day (10 x 2.25). Not a bad starting point.

The next step was to find a refrigerator that would not completely drain the battery bank in the process of preserving my wife’s medication. I settled on a 1.7 cubic foot refrigerator without freezer. The freezer free option helps maintain a lower power consumption profile as it does not require a compressor to run in addition to the cooling fan and motor. This means that there are fewer cycles during which the refrigerator motor is actually running to cool down the unit…meaning it probably uses less power than the specifications have defined…great news. This refrigerator not only has plenty of storage space for my wife’s insulin medication, it also provides options for other food storage in a true TEOTWAWKI scenario. Being able to preserve other foods is always a bonus in a long-term TEOTWAWKI scenario.

Back to power consumption and maximum load. This particular refrigerator model runs on an amazingly low 80 watts. In order to figure out the amp load this refrigerator consumes, take the watts (80) and divide that by the current it will use in 120 Volt AC power. This gives a value of .67 amps. At that rate, running this refrigerator 24 hours per day would use only 16.08 total amps of power from the battery bank. Remember that the motor is not running all the time, so actual power consumption is realistically less, but use the maximum consumption in equations to be safe. In the 10 hours of direct sunlight available on average in my area and at the average panel output of 2.25 amps per hour, this results in getting a satisfactory 22.25 amps in 10 hours. This is 6.42 amps more than the refrigerator consumes all day. This allows the battery bank to remain at full capacity each and every day.[JWR Adds: To be accurate: An 80 watt demand (at 110 VAC) pulls almost 7 amps per hour. (80 divided by 12.6). Volts x Amps = Watts. Also, as SurvivalBlog Reader “Mabs” has pointed out, a 6 volt golf cart deep cycle battery can only be drained 50% without hurting the battery. In a pinch 70% can be drained but doing this adversly affects battery longevity. Keep in mind that inverters are inefficient, so you would need a substantially larger system to provide 80 watts of AC power, 24 hours per day. You must carefully match the size of the inverter to your intended loads. Even when at “idle”, inverters draw significant current. The bigger the inverter, the bigger the current draw, so choose wisely. My advice is that for the sake of simplicity and efficiency that you set up an entirely DC system, using a compact DC-powered refrigerator, such as those made by Engel. When set to 40 degrees they only draw about 1 Amp. You can also keep a small inverter on hand to plug in for occasional use of small AC power tools.]

What I have discussed here is a basic PV system. Solar panel array systems are scalable. I can add more and more panels as time goes by to increase my load closer to my battery bank’s limit [without deep cycling]. More panels will allow me to use my battery array for more than just the refrigerator. I can run lights and and small appliances with the confidence that my battery array can and will be fully charged by a larger solar panel array. The more panels I add, the more amps they will charge my battery bank during the daytime. [JWR Adds: This would require a charge controller to avoid battery overcharging, an inverter of adequate size (to handle AC loads), and a well-maintained battery bank of sufficient size to match the scale of the system.] The key for me was to build an initial system that would cover our main need, to preserve my wife’s medication. After that, I can comfortably add to it as time and money allows.

I have come to the sobering realization that only I can do the things that will best protect my family. I could not allow myself to be aware of such a serious issue and not do something about it. There is nothing wrong with preparation. God willing, nothing will ever happen and my wife will continue to get her insulin in the mail on schedule as expected. If that’s the case, I’ve got a really nice beer refrigerator I can use during football season. If something does happen, I can feel better knowing I have put my wife and family in the best position to survive. Thank you and God bless.

Letter Re: Surviving TEOTWAWKI with Infants and Toddlers

Dear James,
I read your blog weekly.  Very good stuff. 

Regarding the recent article Surviving TEOTWAWKI with Infants and Toddlers, by M.A., I just wanted to add couple things, being a mom of five. 

Having things like Tiefu (for headaches, pains, sinuses), acidophilus (for stomach woes, can be used with infants and will put an end to diarrhea) Otic solutions for inner ear pain (there is no way to sooth a baby in ear pain without this stuff), Vertifree for children and adults with symptoms of vertigo caused by allergies and such.  Castor Oil for muscle pains.  Having the same bracelet can also work instead of tattoos.  One can also stock up on a small box of age appropriate toys.  

I think another good thing is develop a quiet spirit/mind/body.  Don’t expect your kids to wig out and they won’t.  Start training your babies to be quiet.  This is not done by force, but by being a quiet person yourself.  With toddlers play games like hide and seek and reward for being a good and quiet hider.   Lots of rewarding: hugging, reading, playing things they like to play are much better than punishments.  Even a harsh look can bring a child’s morale down, so always keep encouraging.   Involve little ones in everything so they know they are a part of the “team” and then reward.   Peace, – Deirdre

Two Letters Re: Assuring M1911-Series Autopistol Safety

Mr. Rawles,

While I agree, of course, with Steve V.’s assertion that firearms need to be handled safely, people should be familiar with their firearms, and training is a good thing; I very much disagree with the assertion that operating the slide of an automatic pistol the correct way is “an extremely bad habit”.

First, his complaints about what happens when racking a slide with thumbs on opposite sides of the slide and facing opposite directions aren’t very valid in my opinion. The notion that a shooter’s hand and arm conceal the pistol making it “hard to see exactly where the muzzle is pointing” is silly. Even with a small-frame Glock 26 or 27 I can still see the muzzle when operating the slide. But I don’t have to even see the muzzle to know where it is pointing because the hand on the pistol grip is indexed and I know where my fingers point without having to actually see them. Almost any man, woman, or child can stretch out their arm and point their index finger and know where their arm and finger are pointing without looking at them.

Also, at no time does the muzzle point “along or into the left lower forearm”. Even if I had forearms like Popeye, this would not happen. The pistol is pointed downrange, the left hand is on the slide, well behind the muzzle, and every other part of the left arm is farther back than the hand.

Second, I manipulate a pistol up high in my field of view so that I can see the pistol, the environment, and potential adversaries all at once. Manipulating the slide the way that Steve prefers when the pistol is up high in the shooter’s field of view is nearly impossible (which is why he recommends the low 45-degree position). You have to either turn the right wrist to the right (for a right-hand shooter) in order to effectively grasp the slide with the off hand or you have to contort your arms to bring your forearms parallel with each other with the elbows nearly together in order to keep the pistol pointed ahead and get your off hand onto the slide with the thumb-forward grip that was recommended.

If you do see someone pointing a pistol to their left or right while manipulating the slide — regardless of their approach to manipulating the slide — it is a training issue and should no doubt be corrected. But that doesn’t mean that a mechanically inefficient or awkward approach that is better only for the range should be preferred. – Jeff in Georgia

 

Mr. Rawles,
The article by Steve V. leaves me with some concerns for the general populace.  I have spent my entire adult life in public service, serving both my country (13 years) and my state (13+ years), always carrying a weapon. 

My concerns are the way Steve V. has individuals pulling the slide to the rear; “With the left hand, reach over the slide (your thumbs should now both be pointing in the same direction – forward, but on opposite sides of the weapon), and with thumb and forefinger grasp the slide near the muzzle. Pull the slide back and lock it open.”  This does multiple things wrong in my book.  One, it places your hand operating the slide close to the muzzle.  No plan survives first contact!  With a sympathetic response, one could be missing a finger and thumb or parts thereof.  Second, you only have one finger and only a portion of your thumb on the slide to obtain your grip.  Third, you are potentially placing your body, dripping blood, or clothing over the ejection port and possibly in the chamber.  And fourth, this only allows you to hold the weapon vertical, as in a firing position or cant it to the left; both ways again cause possible problems and more malfunctions if your intent is to clear a malfunction.

Steve V. states that “most people rack the slide by holding the pistol in the right hand, grasping the rear of the slide with the other hand in a manner such that the thumbs are pointing in opposite directions on the same side of the weapon,” is an extremely bad habit.  I completely disagree and argue the following reasons.  One, your hand operating the slide is nowhere near the muzzle and is rear of the ejection port, clearing it of any self-induced malfunctions or injuries.  Two, you have four fingers on the right and most of your palm on the left of the slide making a C clamp.  Blood is slippery and the more friction area you have between you and the slide the better.  Three, this forces you to either have the weapon upright or allows you to cant the weapon to the right allowing anything you don’t want, i.e. a spent casing, to fall free.  Obviously to the right is preferred.

Muzzle Discipline.  This is a taught technique or an allowed bad habit from the start.  Weapons are always down range or pointed downward (cover/ready position) with the finger off the trigger until necessary.  Even when clearing a malfunction, loading, unloading, or reloading, the muzzle faces the enemy.  It is muscle memory and if taught from the start is second nature.  All should be taught never to flag (point, cross, etc.) your buddy with the muzzle, always keeping in mind weapons are inherently dangerous.  That said, good guys walk in front of other good guys in the heat of the moment.  Your finger should be off the trigger and if you are up on target, lower [your muzzle to a] ready [position] if this happens.  After they pass, move if necessary, and re-acquire/re-engage your target.

Final thought when clearing your weapon.  One, drop the magazine allowing it to hit the ground or floor!  No need to train a bad habit by grabbing it as it drops.  If you do, you have the potential of grabbing an empty in combat.  Let it drop!  Two, rack the slide three times to the rear, locking the slide to the rear on the third time.  If you do it three times, you shouldn’t be tempted to try and catch that round as it comes out, yet again another bad habit.  After locking the slide to the rear, visually inspect the chamber and the magazine well for anything. 

Practice doesn’t make perfect.  Perfect practice makes perfect!
Stay safe and when in doubt, empty a magazine!  Or two. Regards, – T.F.

Economics and Investing:

More than a dozen blog readers suggested this must read piece: Hedge Farm! The Doomsday Food Price Scenario Turning Hedgies into Survivalists. Here is a quote from the article: “When asked if this is an end of the world scenario, the hedge-fund manager replied, “It really is. I tell my fiancée this from time to time, and I’ve stopped telling her this, because it’s not the most pleasant thought.”

Reader Stephen M. wrote to mention: “One of my favourite indicators as to economic health is the Baltic Dry Index.  It is simply a measure of the shipping costs to move dry goods on the sea.  It does not include oil.  If the index is up then they are moving dry commodities.  If it is falling the economic scene is deteriorating.  It is a pretty good measure. JWR Adds: I have a link to the Baltic Dry Index at my Investing Recommendations static page, along with some other useful charts and links.

C.D.V. spotted this over at Zero Hedge: UK And US Data Shows Stagflation Threat Deepening – Asian Gold Demand Remains Very High

Hedge Funds Show Lowest Net Long Silver Positions since February 2010

Too Big to Fail? Geithner Says No. (A hat tip to KAF for the link.)

Items from The Economatrix:

Scorched Earth Policy by Bankers in Silver

Treasury to Tap Pensions to Help Fund Government

Financial Repression Coming to America

Odds ‘n Sods:

Lulu is offering free shipping until the end of May. This includes the SurvivalBlog 5-Year Archive CD-ROM. Use coupon code FREESHIP305.

   o o o

Lynn G. sent this: US official: growing threat from solar storms

   o o o

An amazing collection of disaster pictures: Mississippi Floodwaters Roll South. (Thanks to Pierre M. for the link.)

   o o o

KAF sent this: Equine Herpes Outbreak Hits Western U.S. States

   o o o

Reader Lynn G suggested: In the bleak light of the Depression: Rare colour photographs of the era that defined a generation

Notes from JWR:

There are now more than 2,100 archived SurvivalBlog Quotes of the Day. My sincere thanks to the many readers that have e-mailed me their favorite quotations. BTW: Please keep them coming! If you have a favorite quotation with a confirmed attribution, then please e-mail it to me. To avoid repetition, please first do a search for the author’s name and a key word from the quote, using our Search box. Thanks!

—

Today we present another entry for Round 34 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and B.) Two cases of Alpine Aire freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $400 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo , and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, C.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and D.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.) , and B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value.

Round 34 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Assuring M1911-Series Autopistol Safety, by Steve V.

For more than two decades, I have carried a variety of weapons ranging from revolvers to suppressed HKs, regularly shooting more than 30,000 rounds a year. (Our rich Uncle Sam has a lot of ammo). As a result, my colleagues and I spent a lot of time handling a variety of firearms. I witnessed more than one negligent discharge by these experienced professionals and have given a lot of thought about how to reduce this possibility. Too many shooters and bystanders are inadvertently injured or killed by poor safety practices.

Long experience has shown very few people know how to safely pull the slide back on a semiautomatic pistol and on those pistols without a decocking lever, almost no one knows how to safely lower a cocked hammer. Do you carry a 1911 series ‘cocked and locked’?  Have your ever verified the integrity of your pistol’s mechanical safeties? Do you even know how many safeties are on your pistol?

Before shooting any firearm in training, you should perform functional safety checks. Because the Browning designed short recoil Colt M1911A1 .45 ACP pistol (and its many variants) is commonly owned and has multiple safeties, I’ll use it as an example. The difficulty in safely lowering an external hammer is often used as an excuse to avoid weapons with such. With a little practice, external hammers can be lowered safely and with ease.

Many of the following safety checks and techniques are applicable to any firearm. A right handed shooter is presumed but these techniques are easily reversed for the left handed.

1. Remove the magazine and eject the round from the chamber (1911s should be carried with a round in the chamber, hammer cocked, and slide safety engaged). Because the slide safety also locks the slide, this condition is often called cocked and locked. Lock the slide open. Make certain the ejected round didn’t slip back into the chamber. Look into the chamber and verify that it is indeed empty. Put the ejected round and magazine into your left hand pocket out of the way. Now how did you eject the round? The human body is biomechanically very efficient in an opposing action with the arms. As a result, most people rack the slide by holding the pistol in the right hand, grasping the rear of the slide with the other hand in a manner such that the thumbs are pointing in opposite directions on the same side of the weapon. This is an extremely bad habit for several reasons. When holding it thusly, the muzzle points to the left and perhaps behind the shooter. The slide and barrel are concealed beneath the left hand and arm making it hard to see exactly where the muzzle is pointing. On the firing line, it often points toward the shooter on your left. Now where did that muzzle just point? Did you point it at a team member, a bystander, your spouse or child? Remember and practice the rule ‘Never point a firearm at anything you do not wish to shoot.’ Well, you probably just did. The muzzle tracks an even bigger wobbly arc with weak shooters (who are even more prone to use this method). Another reason this is a bad habit is that the muzzle points along or into the left lower forearm. An negligent discharge into the arm at this angle would be worse than awful. If you are one of the many who clear your pistol like this, don’t expect to shoot with me.

2. With the magazine removed and safely in your pocket along with the ejected round, release the slide and let it go forward into battery on an empty chamber (you did let it snap closed, didn’t you?). If you cleared the pistol earlier using the method just described, try it this way. Hold the pistol in your right hand and point it forward and down at a 45 degree angle. You can easily see where the muzzle is pointing, right? With the left hand, reach over the slide (your thumbs should now both be pointing in the same direction – forward, but on opposite sides of the weapon), and with thumb and forefinger grasp the slide near the muzzle. Pull the slide back and lock it open. Some slides have friction ridges near the muzzle, now you know why. Notice at no time did you handle the pistol in an uncontrolled manner nor did the muzzle track a wide arc. Oh yes, this is much harder because it is biomechanically weaker and the action unpracticed. If you see the wisdom in what was just described, you will probably have one of those bad habits to overcome.

3. With the slide locked open, once again look into the breech and verify the chamber is empty. Peer down into the empty magazine well and check for lint or other debris. Have a close look at the condition of the breech face, extractor, and ejector. Now turn the muzzle toward your head and look down the barrel in order to check for obstructions, dirt, and lint. Is there excessively oil anywhere? Any debris? If so, these conditions must be remedied before firing (fix this right away before continuing). If the pistol is carried/transported in an open muzzle end holster or loosely in a purse or bag, this check is even more essential. Paper clips, gum, dirt, and all sort of other debris find their way into barrels. Catastrophic failure and most likely injury will result from shooting any firearm with an obstructed barrel.

4. Pointing the pistol in a safe direction, ease the slide back until the slide lock clicks off, then release the slide and let it slam closed on the empty chamber. If you routinely ease the slide closed, this is another bad habit that may carry through when charging the pistol with a live round. Easing the slide forward will guarantee a jam when charging many firearms from the magazine. Manually loading a round into the chamber and dropping the slide closed on it is another bad practice. I am convinced this puts undue stress on the extractor.

5. With the slide now closed on an empty chamber, point the firearm in a safe direction and squeeze the trigger. The hammer will fall and its face should be against the rear of the slide. A blow to the hammer in this condition with a loaded chamber could result in a discharge. With your trigger finger off of the trigger and along side the frame, Place the side of your free hand thumb on the top of the hammer and top rear edge of the slide. Roll and wedge your thumb between the hammer and rear of the slide to ease the hammer back slightly to the first click (but not to the fully cocked position). Apply a little forward force on the back of the hammer trying to move it toward the muzzle. It should not move. This is the half cock safety. With the hammer at half cock, a blow such as dropping the weapon on the hammer theoretically should not result in a discharge. I have never trusted the half cock position.

6. Point the empty pistol in a safe direction and rack the slide cocking the hammer. Did you remember to hold the slide at the muzzle between your thumb and forefinger? Engage the slide safety. Most 1911s also have a grip safety.  Hold the pistol in a shooting manner with the grip safety engaged and squeeze the trigger. The hammer should not fall. Now you know the slide safety works independent of the grip safety.

7. Point the empty pistol in a safe direction and disengage the slide safety. It is a little awkward but without engaging the grip safety, squeeze the trigger. The hammer should not fall. Now you know the grip safety works independent of the slide safety.

8. Point the empty pistol in a safe direction and with the hammer cocked, use the muzzle grip technique to ease the slide back out of battery about 1/4 inch. Hold it in this position. With the slide safety and grip safety disengaged, pull the trigger. Again the hammer should not fall. Now you know the slide disconnect safety works. The purpose of this safety is to prevent a partially chambered round from being fired.

9. Thusfar, the hammer has been lowered by pulling the trigger. I shall now describe how to safely lower the hammer on a firearm not equipped with a decocker lever. Many people both cock and lower the hammer with their thumb pad (thumbnail facing rearward). Remember earlier I had you cock the pistol using the slide, not your thumb? There was a reason for this. Thumb pad cocking and decocking works most of the time but should your thumb slip off the hammer with a loaded chamber, a discharge will occur. Point the empty cocked pistol in a safe direction. Hold the pistol in a shooting manner with slide and grip safeties disengaged. Place your free hand thumb perpendicular to the grip with the bottom of its joint facing toward the rear of the slide. Slip it in this manner between the rear of the slide and hammer. Force the hammer back slightly with the back of the thumb. Pull the trigger. The hammer is blocked from falling. Roll your thumb up counterclockwise just slightly to ease the hammer forward a little bit clearing the sear catch position. Release the trigger and continue to roll and pull your thumb up, easing the hammer down. By releasing the trigger before completely lowering the hammer, the half cock safety is engaged providing another measure of safety against a hammer slip. This takes some practice and you might pinch your thumb when first practicing. With practice, the hammer can always be safely lowered to the half cock position without pinching. Make a practice of cocking the hammer using the slide. If you must lower the hammer, then use the thumb block technique.

There are many ways negligent discharges occur. In my experience, they most often occur following dry firing after cleaning or other maintenance. I have no problem with dry firing and most modern pistols can withstand quite a bit without failure. After cleaning, performing maintenance and/or dry firing and reloading, holster the weapon and don’t mess with it again until ready to shoot. I repeat, after dry firing and reloading, put the weapon in the holster and don’t mess with it until ready to shoot again! By doing this simple thing, the possibility of negligent discharge is almost eliminated.

May your shooting always be for pleasure and never in fear or anger. 

Two Letters Re: Bugging Out Via Boat

JWR,
I just wanted to share one note on the recent boat bug-out letter. There is actually one company I know of that makes fast pontoon boats (more of a combination speed/pontoon boat).

Check out Manitou Pontoon Boats.

I’ve seen some amazing video footage of these boats turning on a dime, and they have very high J.D. Power ratings. Note that I work for a company that does work for them, but don’t gain anything from recommending them. – V.T.

 

JWR:
After reading the articles on watercraft and some of the great insight put forth, I need to throw out this for food for thought. During my years working in law enforcement, being in bad situations, and learning from outlaws while working undercover, they ways they think both as aggressor or defender,  you learn to think out different survival situations and their resulting solutions.  I have lived in 15 different states all over the mainland U.S. and Hawaii for the last 50 years.  

One survival scenario that reoccurs to me is the need to have a fallback retreat. One that has the best usage of terrain and gives the advantage to the defender.  In looking back thru history, high ground was always a primary consideration, but another that is seldom mentioned is the use of of  islands, whether they be in a river, lake,  sea scenario, or accessed over a bridge. 

No matter where I have lived, be it in the northern, southern, or coastal states, I have the ability to find a “castle with moat”  defensible areas that deserve consideration. My belief is that what I might lack in numbers can be made up for in a significant amount by the ability to make the assault on a island a lot more negative to a potential attacker.  I first discussed this option with friends in Northern New Mexico, while hunting deer, who during the hunting season would swim a half mile to an island in a large mountain lake in order to escape the hunters, we enjoyed their natural ability to escape a threat.   I always have felt do what nature provides to most animals, the instinct to survive by utilizing what’s available to them.

There are plus and minus arguments for this scenario, but for a person needing to think and more importantly react beyond the Golden Horde‘s willingness to pick you as a target, you might want to need to consider this option.

1. Most islands be they in a river or a lake or even a coastal location, will be vacant, and able to be occupied in a time of need. This takes the use of a boat to a better level by getting you away from the ground pounders and out to position that cannot be attacked on foot or by a motor vehicle. In addition it reduces, or may eliminate a on foot stealth approach. It now requires a potential attacker to first secure a type of boat in order to get to you.  In a situation where people are in a firefight from a defensible position on land, versus a attacking group in a boat(s) my money goes with the defenders every time.   The thought of going against anyone while in any type of boat is a reality check to say the least.  
2. Most islands will contain trees, shrubs, as a means of concealment and maybe some wildlife as a potential food source. Also should you have some high ground on the island it may add even more advantages to your defensive chances.  You also will  have a endless water supply unless you pick a coastal island. 
3. A direct attack requires the attacker to win in the first attempt (my premise) as they will be open to continuous fire even in an attempted retreat.  I pity most people trying to go against a defensive group on land while they are attacking from a boat. I will show no quarter to anyone even if they give up and are retreating, as I do not want to fight them on another front.
4. Attacks at night pose even more problems for attackers then it does for defenders, I am not going to weigh in using night vision.   
5. Unlike a land retreat it will be almost impossible to probe or infiltrate the island and return with intelligence prior to an assault.  
6. Using dogs for perimeter warning — an island ensures they will not be wandering off.   

On the negative side:

1. Requires you to bring most of what you may require for a long term siege situation.
2. You will be isolated, but that’s applicable to most other options also.
3. Will have to maintain/retain the ability to move back to mainland after the threat is reduced or gone.
4. The ability to gather food, and other items are going to be limited.
5. Bug out from an island may be harder to do or limited.

I admit there are items not addressed here, but the intent is to bring more options to the awareness of everyone who is trying to “make do with what you have, where you are.”  This is a no cost addition to you survival plans, other than some prior planning and locating. God bless this country, and all of you who now follow him or will in the future.

– John in Arizona