Two Letters Re: How Long Can You Tread Water?

Mr. Rawles:
I have been reading your site for over two years now and have two of your books. I have a growing concern on what is going on in the world and working to prepare myself and my family for what the future may or may not bring us. I eagerly await the next day postings of SurvivalBlog each and everyday and look forward to what your other readers bring to the table. I took great interest in “How Long Can You Tread Water?” by Tom S. but more in the initial response. I am sure there will be more responses such as Andrew B. and I want to write about what I see as a growing trend from the readers on your site. A lot of readers, regardless of preparedness level, seem to disregard the greatest of battlefield multipliers, Murphy’s Law. Readers need to be careful that they are not planning for just for the optimal situation. You could have a three year food supply and the one hundred year flood could wipe out your crop and flood your stores forcing you to become a refugee. Would you loot to stay alive then or watch your family starve?

I read this site and people responses to controversial letters such as the current one and the one a while back about the guy planning on being a potential ‘good guy looter’. It seems to me, from people responses, that a lot of readers are not planning for contingencies. I want to talk about Tom’s article. I agree with most of what was said except the use of cars after an EMP attack. However what he said about gangs is dead on.

Gangs are experts with a capital E in stealth, deception, human manipulation and brutality. They are very organized and are lead by some of the smartest and most charismatic people around. As a former military man I can tell you the military has a huge gang problem. From the infantry barracks to the Los Angeles class nuclear submarine. Currently with the two wars going on the Crips and Bloods, Latin Kings and every other gang has been signing its members up for the military so in two years they can bring back combat and medical experience and infantry tactics to the gangs. This was covered in depth on the History channels Gangland. Gangs are not to mess with despite what some readers may think. Plus they have been empowered over the years by our week justice system that actually enables these vermin. I spent six weeks in New Orleans after Katrina. Any one of these punks would not have hesitated to walk up to one of my soldiers and shoot him in the face. They have no regard for human life.

After the SHTF gangs or some other body (rogue police perhaps) may or may not take over the cities. After they use all the resources up they will expand out but they will start to weigh effort versus resources versus payoff. How many losses can they take to rival gangs survivalists, army units, functioning police etc before they lose power or influence. Eventually they will expand out until their supplies collapse, they can’t loot anymore or start taking casualties due to starvation or lead poisoning.

As for attacking a Homestead or a retreat your best defense is to go undetected. What will it take to go undetected? At what price? You may think your farm house in the middle of nowhere is safe and defensible. Is it defensible against a man sneaking around at night with a can of gas and a match? A man who is willing to sift through the burnt embers to find a few cans of Spam that survived the blaze. That’s all it would take to destroy a retreat. A match and a can of gas. Maybe a distraction or two. Why take the structure intact when I can destroy it and search the rubble. I don’t need a platoon or a company of thugs. Maybe the thugs will just light the field on fire or the barn with the livestock. You got a rifle and 30 cartridges? The thugs will take your retreat with 31 guys with knives.

The world will be very brutal and you will be asking yourself to do things unfathomable. Will you be willing to kill to not be discovered? Killing men, women and children? Is your family worth more? Raiders or government military might question the family you let go during a recon patrol next thing you know you have a battalion at your door step. That may be the reality we would be living in. Neighbors killing neighbors just for OPSEC alone. Who knows? It will be hell on earth. As we have seen in the past it doesn’t take much to turn decent people into monsters.

BTW you railhead tracked vehicles to save on fuel and keeping the tracked vehicles from tearing up the roads. If a Bradley or Abrams turned out on a highway, the pavement would be ruined. Those stationed in Germany in the 1980s and 1090s will remember REFORGER exercises. We took tanks hundreds of miles cross country with only minimal break downs. Usually we still had 95% of our firepower by the end of the exercise. If we didn’t there was hell to pay. They are American made and the best. Regards, – Andrew S.

 

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I wanted to respond to Andrew B.’s recent post about the excellent EMP article (How long can you tread water?) Andrew stated “If fuel is still being produced then law enforcement will operate and food production will not be halted and the point is moot.” I am a police officer in a very large department in the northeast. I know for a fact that our elaborate communications system and our fleet of emergency vehicle’s are not protected from an EMP attack. We would no longer be an effective service to our citizens in the event that we lost these crucial assets. Many of my co workers visit this site on a daily basis. We have had several casual conversations at work on how we would respond to a large scale/long term catastrophic event such as an EMP attack. We have all come to the conclusion that we would eventually have to return home to our families in order to protect them from the violence that would exist during the aftermath. I highly doubt that many U.S. law enforcement agencies have any plans in place to handle a large scale event of this magnitude. My advice to you all is to pray for the best and prepare for the worst. – M.A.



Letter Re: Equipping my My G.O.O.D. Boat

A couple of points bothered me about Doug W.’s plan to G.O.O.D. with his boat. First, his idea about using logs to keep out intruders in his retreat anchorage has one possible flaw. According to Murphy’s Laws of Combat, anyplace too difficult to get into will be too difficult to get out of! Next, I am no sailor, but I’ve been around the ocean and I’ve seen some horrific storms. I saw no plan for riding out bad weather, unless these bays are very sheltered. Next is that unless tied up close to shore, sitting at anchor in the middle of a bay puts you in sight of anyone who stumbles upon that same stretch of water, whether on land or by sea. Also, is that especially during calm water periods, water is a notorious reflector of sound, so sound discipline and light discipline is an absolute must. I saw no mention of camouflage or concealment.

The biggest drawback to his plan I see is that the limited number of people in his group would put a tremendous strain on all to keep watch, do necessary daily chores, plus any emergency is best handled with more eyes/hands available.

A couple of suggestions too – one would be to put some caches of food/ammo/fuel/medical supplies in these areas he plans to retreat to. If his bays are as remote as he thinks they are, then any cache should remain available and undisturbed. Another would be a small library on some of the natural resources that could be harvested to increase/supplement diet, such as kelp, shellfish, and land-based flora/fauna in that region. Plus the tools to harvest those resources.

All in all though, I am sure that Doug has a huge step up on most of the web fingered/toed northwesterners.

Sincerely, – Greg in Arizona



Economics and Investing:

Randy K. zeroed in on this: Wall Street Apocalypse: The World of the Doomsday Investors

G.G. flagged this: Implications of a Likely Economic Downturn

Items from The Economatrix:

Job Creation in Private Sector Remained Weak in June

So What Exactly is a Double-Dip Recession?

Mortgage Rates Scream “BUY” But Who’s Listening

State Pension Woes Only Worsening

ISM Says Service Sector Growth Slows in June

Post Office Announces 2-Cent Rate Increase. (Say, what happened to that much-touted deflation?)

Pump Prices Head Down Again After Holiday Weekend





Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"These are times that try men’s souls; the summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of his country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph." – Thomas Paine, from his essay “The Crisis”



Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 29 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Parabellum (Luger ) with 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP projectiles, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $249 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, and B.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and B.) a Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.)

Round 29 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Equipping My G.O.O.D. Boat, by Doug W.

I live on a 42 foot boat and have no access to a land-based defensible position here in the northern part of Puget Sound. In order to prepare my wife and me for the coming collapse we have had to adapt and innovate our thinking a little bit. Because we live on the water between two major population centers we believe that when the stuff hits the fan people will not be viewing an escape by water as a viable alternative they will be looking for land with house and food so we may be under the radar for awhile which will allow us to sneak away quietly and find a quiet little bay up coast to hunker down in and prepare a defensive positions. With some sustainability via the ocean and the game that we will be able to shoot in those isolated bays and coves.

Most people that we talk to have no idea how to run a boat let alone know how to handle all the mechanical and marine functions. The areas we are looking to retreat are only accessible by water or plane and the bays we will be in you could not land a plane in. So our only real threats will be pirates or other boaters. Up and down the coast are various small villages that will be abandoned because they are not sustainable without food and fuel brought in on regular basis some of these villages may be a place of refuge for us if we need to but I envision us in an uninhabited bay or cove. Once we get to the bay we fell a bunch of trees and drag them to mouth of the bays to act as a barrier for any boats that try to come. If we do have to abandon the boat, the bays that I am thinking of have trails and old abandoned cabins in them so we can make our final escape to there. Failing that, I can launch my 12’ hard bottom inflatable with outboard engine and do some hit and run tactics or use it as another escape platform.

My main concern will be the ongoing procurement of diesel fuel if we need to move a lot. It would be ideal to find some other like-minded boaters and set up a defensive community there. We have set the boat up with 3 redundant electrical sources 1) wind generator for our 8-6 volt golf cart bats with an 8 d for start, 2) on one the main diesel engines we have a 150 amp Zena alternator that can double as a welder and charging system for the boat on the other 120 hp Ford Lehman we have a 65 amp heavy duty for running the boat and keeping the 8 [six- volt] golf cart batteries charged up 3) We also have a small 3,500watt diesel generator that can back up any of the electrical system. All of these systems are tied to our Heart 2500 watt inverter system.

We have stored on the boat 180 day supply of food including various buckets of rice, wheat, flour and MRes. I have a good supply of fishing, crabbing and prawn equipment being an ex-fishing guide I envision bartering local seafood for various other needs. On board I have a set of diving gear in case in need to do some under water boat disabling, or do repairs on our own boat. The boat has the ability to carry 250 gals of fresh water and with the number creeks and rivers that dump into the west coast water will not be a problem. Septic will not be a problem. We will have a small desalination unit that will feed into the main tank at about 2-3 gal an hour which give us the water we need to sustain ourselves. For showering and hot water we have a passive sun heat hot water system as well as a heat exchanger on the main engines that will give all the hot water we need when the mains are running. The boat also has four sources of heat 1) the main engines have the heat exchanger tied into a hot water hydronic s system throughout the boat with 12 volt pumps that transfer the hot water heat trough out the boat. 2) A Hurricane hot water diesel furnace system that is tied into the 12 pumps and fan system through red dot heater exchanges. 3) In all of the rooms we have 1,500 watt cadet style wall mount heaters that can run off the 8-6 volt batteries. 4) We have a portable Little Buddy propane heater for back up in the event of failure with 3-20 lb propane bottles. We also carry 450 gallons of diesel with a burn rate of 1.5/gal hr per engine that we will use for G.O.O.D. time having lived on the coast my whole life and explored most of it there are number bays that one could hide in for a long time until things blows over.

For defense of the boat I have a 12 gauge riotgun with 200 rounds of slugs and 00 buck shot. A Mini-14 with folding stock .223(with 2,000 rounds), 18 shot Remington .22 with 30 boxes of high velocity long rifle, Jennings .22 pistol and stainless .38 with 150 rounds. I am planning to buy a dummy .50 caliber to (covered up while at port of course so as not freak out the locals) mounted on the front of the boat to give that “don’t mess with me” look. The final on board defense with be quart size canisters of military grade OC, and of course our whacked out pit-bull terrier.

Our electronics package include the various things you need for maritime navigation 24 mile radar that can be set to provide a defensive perimeter alarm out to 1 mile, 2 Raymarine depth sounders in both the upper fully enclosed station as well as the lower station, a loud hailer for the broadcast of “don’t mess with me” warnings, One fully rotational 2 million power spot flood light, 2 heavy duty anchors with lots of chain and floating line for the defensive perimeter around the boat good for prop fouling plus we have redundancy in our VHF radios as well as a short wave system, 4 – 12 gauge flare guns for signaling [and perhaps some fear inducing], auto pilot, video camera system with four outside video cameras that can monitor the boat at all times , paper charts of the West Coast as well as 3 GPS systems (two hand held and one mounted), two FRS radios, I hand held VHF radio, 2 portable 1 million candle power spot lights, a yagi 16 db directional antenna that allows me to dial into any broadcasters that are still operating along the west coast.

On the boat I have a full complement of spare parts and a large tool chest I can do almost all repairs short of rebuilding the engines. I took a diesel engine course at the local community college just to give me a little more info on the mechanics of diesel engines. My wife works at the hospital and has a good working knowledge the medical techniques and supplies. My son is in law enforcement and has assured me when the time comes with his SWAT training and equipment we will be well protected. The thing that I am concerned about the most is how will I know when to make the break and move on what will be the signs that say that is time to go and what do I do with those who don’t believe and hence have to leave behind that will be very difficult. God has assured us he will be us guiding us and directing us until he comes again. That is my only comfort.

JWR Replies: There are a few weaknesses in your plan, but you will certainly be light years ahead of the average urbanites and suburbanites of the Seattle-Tacoma metropolitan region who will be geographically isolated in the event of a major disaster. The weaknesses that immediately come to mind are:

1.) Limited food storage. You should pre-position as much storage food as possible onboard your boat. Once your food runs out, your options will be very limited. Although they are illegal in most jurisdictions for private fishing in fresh water, I suggest that you lay in a supply of gill nets, for the event of a true “worst case” where fishing regulations become meaningless.

2.) Limited fuel storage. Once your fuel runs out, your options will be very limited. Within the weight and balance constraints of your boat, increase your diesel fuel storage as much as possible.

3.) Limited water storage. You need to get some dedicated equipment for collecting, hauling, and filtering fresh water from shore. You should buy at least 8 heavy duty five-gallon plastic water cans or alternatively some five-gallon HDPE plastic buckets with spout lids. (See what fits best in your inflatable.) It is also important to procure a water filter to treat that water. In the long term, as your budget allows, you should also get a backup manually-pumped reverse osmosis Water Maker, to provide redundancy in turning sea water into fresh water.

4.) No photovoltaic power generation capacity. Once you are out of diesel to make power, your wind generator will be insufficient to keep your battery bank charged.

5.) The 1,500 watt electric wall heaters that you mentioned are designed for use on shore power, or when you have your engine running. Without your engine alternator or your auxiliary generator charging the system, running one of those heaters will drain your battery bank in just a couple of hours. Here again, once you are out of diesel fuel to make power, those electric heaters will be useless.

6.) The “abandoned cabins” that you mentioned are undoubtedly located on land that already has an owner, and odds are that someone will be there, in hard times. In the event of a total collapse, you might have the chance to build a cabin on public land out on an island. So bring a barrel of timber spikes and nails, several axes, several saws, a shingle froe, a hardwood mallet (“maul”), an adze, a draw knife, and assorted carpentry tools. And of course bring a good book on building wilderness cabins, such as Beard’s classic book: “Shelters, Shacks, and Shanties“.

7.) You should thoroughly scout out primary, secondary, and tertiary harbor locations, preferably in the American San Juan islands. Since you own guns that are “no-nos” in Canada, that rules out the Canadian San Juan islands. That is unfortunate, since there is a much larger selection of great little uninhabited islands up there. (I visited several, when I spent a summer on and around Cortes Island.)

8.) You will probably be safer at night anchored “out in the channel” than you would be in the confined waters of a small bay or river inlet. I’d recommend adding a .308 or .30-06 stainless steel bolt action rifle to give you better range in keeping pirates at a safe stand-off distance. (As they say, “Keep your friends close and your enemies at 9X distance.”) Buy several hundred rounds of ball or AP ammo, and at least 60 rounds of tracer ammo, for putting the fear of God into nocturnal pirates.

9.) In the event of a long term disaster, a diesel engine coastal cruiser carrying a gas-engine inflatable won’t be tenable. A true blue water sailboat with lots of PV panels and carrying a couple of sea kayaks would be more appropriate.



Letter Re: How Long Can You Tread Water?

Mr. Rawles:
Regarding the recently-posted article on EMP, while some of what Tom S. says is true, some of it is just plain silly. The results of a nation-wide EMP pulse would be catastrophic to be sure. Banking, communications, even food supply
would in fact be disrupted. But to suggest that well organized gangs with armored vehicles would be systematically destroying farm homes and lake cabins is simply preposterous. Please consider:

1. If fuel production is halted, no one is going to get further than one tank of gas outside the city limits.

2. If fuel is still being produced then law enforcement will operate and food production will not be halted and the point is moot.

3. There is a reason the US Army moves its [tracked] vehicles by rail. They can’t drive more than a few miles without the things breaking down.

4. Existing gangs are mostly composed of ignorant teenagers who, while fiercely loyal and ruthlessly violent, do not possess the foresight or the organizational capability to run a sustained campaign based on
foraging. While the older, more structural gangs (such as the Hell’s Angels) might be able to pull it off, once the gas runs out they, like the inner-city Crips and Bloods, will be on foot.

5. In the event of a power outage, jail cells will be locked shut, not open.

6. In order to run a successful raid on even an isolated farm house takes meticulous planning, thorough preparation, lots of supplies, and the ability to perform small unit infantry tactics. If you’ve ever done it, you know that even in the best of circumstances, it is extraordinarily difficult, because it is physically demanding and takes real discipline.

7. The idea that the neighborhood gang is suddenly going to turn into a disciplined force, operating with military precision out to get Tom S. is simply delusional
paranoia.

A fundamental tenet of preparedness is cool headed planning. We can not afford wide-eyed optimistic sentimentalism. However we do not need wild-eyed hysteria, either.

Respectfully, – Andrew B.



Four Letters Re: My G.O.O.D. Vehicle

Hello James Wesley,
I have a couple of questions for Matt M. My knowledge of diesel engines is limited. However, I am researching for my own G.O.O.D. vehicle as well, and following your advice on having vehicles with different fuel systems I am concentrating diesel light trucks for my requirement. Matt describes taking an “expedition” route instead of regular roads under certain conditions. He also states that with his extra fuel tank that he has a “2,000 mile range”.

My questions to Matt are:

Is the fuel range based on “expedition” conditions, or road conditions?

Does diesel mileage vary with the season? In a past life (living in a northern state) I owned a gasoline engine 1977 GMC 4×4 Suburban that got 14 mpg summer and 7 mpg winter. I am wondering if diesel engines are affected by the cold as well.

Thanks, – Chris G. in Wisconsin

 

Sir:
I just wanted to mention a couple practical points in consideration of Matt M’s excellent G.O.O.D. Vehicle article.

He mentions a 98 gallon auxiliary tank, and then a 2,000 mile range for his 99 Ford F350. 2,000 miles / 98 gallons is assuming a 20 mpg average for those miles and I believe that is overly optimistic for “off-road” expedition type travel. If most of the travel is 45 mph, dirt road type driving I think he could easily make that type of mpg. But for true off-road, fields, tight mountain trails, power and gas line right-of-ways, I am guessing he will see speeds of 5-10 mph at best.

In my experience, your mpg drops off considerably at those speeds and it is quite possible he will see single digit mph on his 400 mile trek. The best thing to confirm your actual off-road mileage is to take a trip and measure your actual mileage in those conditions!

Another couple of tools that he should consider, is bolt cutters, chainsaw(s), or better yet, old fashioned 1-2 man bow saws for a more stealthy solution to downed trees, etc blocking the path. Another valuable off-road tool is the Hi-Lift jack, mine is cast iron, 60” model that can also serve as a “winch” and many other uses!

If you look at Google Earth, you can actually print out some excellent maps of your own personal off-road G.O.O.D. egress! Look for power lines, gas lines, etc that cut through property that is not normally traveled by vehicles!! HOWEVER, it is highly illegal to actually scout ahead and drive down those trails as they are mostly private property that the utility companies have access to.

Yes, you will see many off-road type vehicles illegally traveling down them now, but I can assure you a hefty fine / and unwanted attention from the local PD is a possibility!! Not to mention irate land owners. But, if the SHTF, well I suspect this will be a GOOD backup plan.

I mention bolt/wire cutters for crossing fences, et cetera off-road in the above situation. You may want to consider a “good neighbor” system where you actually repair the damage you are doing. They will be even more upset with you if their livestock wanders out your new G.O.O.D. hole that you cut in their fence.

James:
Matt needs to be sure that he had identified every sensor in the vehicle and that he knows how to replace them and can do it himself with the tools he is likely to have on hand. There are a lot of sensors in vehicles today and
some are very difficult to get to. I am not familiar with his Fords, but I have seen Chevies where you need to lift the engine to reach a crankshaft sensor and the vehicle was DOA without it operational. – Thomas G.

Mr. Editor:
I believe the 1999 Ford F350 is protected by Ford’s “Securi-lock” or PATS (Passive Anti-Theft System). The key is interrogated by a transponder in the column when the ignition switch is turned to the “Start” position. If that key’s code is not programmed in to one of 8 or more slots (2 master, 6+ authorized users), the vehicle will turn over, but won’t start. This will cause the “Theft” light on the dash to flash as the only indication as to why there is a “no-start”. To compound the issue, the PATS module can be part of the PCM, the dash cluster or a separate box.

Ideally, the PCM, IDM, etc. will be installed and tested BEFORE they are packed away, but I expect the PCM could be a major issue. If the PCM has built in PATS, only the keys that the vehicle was purchased with (or programmed for, more on that later) will work.

If the PATS is in the dash or a separate module, you will be able to swap out the PCM with little or no issue, but now you have a bigger problem – EMP and the PATS module – secure a replacement (wherever it may be) and follow the remaining steps.

If the vehicle has the PATS built in to the PCM, hopefully it is a version that allows for user programming needing only one or more master keys. If this is the case, the Ford Service Manual (or any Internet Search Engine) will produce the procedures to program new keys for the original PCM.

Should you be lucky enough to have the original keys that came WITH the PCM, you can purchase keys that can be cut to match your column WITHOUT the transponder, and attach the old key head to the new key with a small ring or zip-tie. This will keep the “chip” close enough to the sensor “halo” to read during programming. You can use these make-shift master keys to program the PROPER keys for daily use. While not ideal, it is cheap!

If you do not have the original keys for the PCM, it will need to be reflashed by a Ford Service Center for the new keys (2 masters).
Have the technician erase all keys and start from scratch, this will eliminate the possibility that someone (previous owner, other dealer) has a back up or “cloned” key. If you do the “self-service” procedures in the Service Manual, it will force the “Theft” light to flash once for each key programmed – if there are more flashes than you have keys, someone has programmed a spare key! There is no way to delete additional keys without the specific dealer tools.

I recommend testing all keys to ensure they unlock all doors/compartments, and unlock the steering column BEFORE flashing. Any local locksmith can cut the keys, but you need to follow the manufacturers instructions for programming.

For each vehicle/PCM combination, I recommend 4 keys.
– Two Master keys: which get zip-tied together and stored in a safe place, marked with the PCM and vehicle info (for uses a 4 digit code to ID the PCM, like BAE2, XBT1, etc). This way, if either of the regular use keys are lost, the masters can be used to program additional keys.
– Two additional keys become the everyday keys and these can be replaced as needed for little cost.

If you do not have the “Master” keys for a vehicle (or spare PCM), this is a “dealer only” procedure that is bound to cost hundreds of dollars.
Remember, never use the master keys for everyday use, not only can someone use them to add a key to your vehicle, but if the key is lost, stolen or broken, it will make the repair dealer only instead of DITY.
Hope this helps.
Thanks, – DZF



Economics and Investing:

G.G. was the first of several readers to mention this article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: With the US trapped in depression, this really is starting to feel like 1932

Todd M. sent us this: Banks Too Big to Fail, Too Big to Bail Out: Roubini

B.B. sent this: Investors Fear Rising Risk of US Regional Defaults

Bernanke Created Half of 234 Years’ Worth of Money Supply. Here is a quote: “The U.S. turned 234 years old yesterday, and yet over half of the
nation’s money supply was created since Helicopter Ben took over the
flight controls four years ago. No wonder gold is in a full fledged
bull market . . .”

Items from The Economatrix:

Starting Now: America’s Second Great Depression

Companies Clutching Cash But Stingy with Jobs

From Forbes: Unemployment is Here to Stay

Sultans of Swap: BP Collapse Potentially More Devastating than Lehman’s

Gary North: Congress or Fed Too Big To Fail?

Increasing Risk of Double-Dip Recession as Leading Economic Indicators Start to Turn

Turning Lemons Into Lemonade for 390 Years

Hungary to Ask for “Precautionary Bailout” from EU and IMF

7.9 Million Jobs Lost, Many Never to Return

State and Local Government Workers’ Job Security Fades



Odds ‘n Sods:

R.J. in Idaho told me that he had an excellent germination rate with his Medicinal Herb Garden Collection from Everlasting Seeds, despite what he termed a “difficult” gardening season with “never-ending” Spring rains. I can’t think of a more important thing to keep on hand (and to practice using) that non-hybrid seeds. Stock up!

o o o

M.O.B. sent this: Seized Drug Submarine is Huge Leap for Smugglers

o o o

I heard about a new blog with an emphasis on personal security: Security Whip. Check it out.

o o o

Jason H. flagged this from Popular Mechanics: Can Your Padlock Withstand a Bullet?





Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 29 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round will include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost between $500 and $600, and B.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $392 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 500 round case of Fiocchi 9mm Parabellum (Luger ) with 124gr. Hornady XTP/HP projectiles, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $249 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $400, and B.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing, and B.) a Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.)

Round 29 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



My G.O.O.D. Vehicle, by Matt M.

In considering my Get Out of Dodge (G.O.O.D.), plans, I decided to focus on determining the proper vehicle to acquire. My first and biggest concern is the fact that I have a large family. While our retreat is little more than a camp site at this time, I have decided to focus this article on the trip there rather than the buildup of the actual retreat. I am not a trained mechanic but I have worked on cars throughout my 22 years of car ownership. I am by no means an expert at anything survival related. I am a student of survival and this is what I have learned in the last year in my search for the best way to get my family from here to there. I trust the survival blog readers to grade me appropriately and correct my lack of knowledge.

My vehicle requirements are the following:

Seating Capacity for Nine

Counting my wife, myself, my two boys and my five girls we have nine people to plan for. The youngest is seven and the oldest is 17. Obviously, this makes things both expensive and complicated. With a family of nine bugging out on foot or on bicycles is much less likely to succeed than it would be for two adults.

Expedition Capable

Our retreat is over 400 miles from our home. I think it will be very likely that the highways between these locations will become parking lots, or worse, they will have barricades and roadblocks used for stealing from travelers. I began to look at alternative routes from the standard highway paths that I normally use. I explored frontage roads, city streets, service roads and back roads. I also asked the question, “Why not go off road?” In my search, I have learned that the off-road community has been doing this for years. They call it going on an “Expedition”. Not the Ford SUV of the same name but a combination of camping by night and driving off road trails by day. They travel without roads and this is exactly what I wanted to learn. My local off-road club has scheduled expeditions. These created the perfect experimental environment for me to figure out off-road routes to our retreat and the tools I need to execute my plan. This means that I must have a proper 4-wheel drive vehicle modified to drive off road. I will also need many good paper topographical maps of the areas that I may have to drive through.

It is important to understand that the off road community has categorized dirt trails. They range in difficulty by class from one to nine; with one being a well cared for dirt road nine being cliffs and ridiculously difficult terrain to cross. I think it is reasonable to target my vehicle with a class two/three as a requirement.

EMP Resistance

As I searched for the correct vehicle, I made sure I was ready for one or more Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) events that could affect my initial trip and any traveling I may need to do afterwards. This survival blog has helped me understand just how real this threat is. The main concerns along this line of thinking are threefold.

The Carrington event of 1859 – Activity on the sun caused an EMP-like event here on earth. The current solar activity is expected to last the next few years and could produce another similar event. Now that our society is much more reliant on unshielded electronics, it would be far more catastrophic.

The EMP effect of a nuclear weapon – If a nuclear blast occurs miles in the sky it will have a similar affect upon our unshielded electronics.

A bad guy makes an EMP weapon – If a terrorist type or some other bad guy builds an EMP bomb and sets it off from a balloon or a plane over my relative part of the planet, then I will have to deal with the same consequences as the two items above.

This requirement places a difficult task in my path. I must obtain sufficient vehicles for my family and supplies and it must be either a hardened newer model or one that predates electronics. Therefore, if possible, it must be pre-1980 to be sure it does not rely on electronics to function.

To add further complication it is also worth noting that depending upon the strength of an EMP any magnetic sensor or solenoid may also be damaged should such an event happen. This means that even if I had selected an older model I would have to keep a spare solenoid in a shielded container and the right tools and knowledge to replace it in any location.

Fuel Storage Solution

My retreat is over 400 miles away from my house. This means that I need extra fuel or a fuel depot along the route cached some place safe. I am assuming that buying fuel along the way will not be possible.

Bullet Resistance

I do not know if things will be bad enough for people to start shooting at us but if they are, I need to be ready for that as well. Protection for the family, the fuel and the engine would be ideal.

Camouflage

I cannot have my vehicle stick out like a sore thumb while in the wilderness. The vehicle should be an appropriate color for the terrain I expect to drive through. I also do not want to stick out like a sore thumb in the middle of suburbia or in the city either so I need a solution for both.

My Solutions are as follows:

For my solution, I did not find any pre 1980 four-wheel drive vehicles for sale so I selected two identical 1999 Ford F-350 crew cab diesel one-ton pickup trucks that have been modified to address the requirements listed above. This will allow a maximum of six people plus their gear per vehicle and since I have nine people this allows me to have room for more gear in the cab since I only need four or five in each cab. I am also not thrilled with the turning radius of this truck but it appears I will have to make due. Having two identical vehicles allows for interchangeable parts. If one of the vehicles tips over or gets stuck, the other can assist with the recovery.

1. Transfer flow 98-gallon auxiliary fuel tank. This allows me to travel more than 2,000 miles without stopping for fuel.

2. Four inch lift with enhanced shocks. This lift and shocks allow for bigger tires and a reasonably low center of gravity for optimal off road capability. Keeping the truck lower than four inches would provide a lower center of gravity but does not allow for off road clearances. Lifting the truck further displaces the center of gravity and provides little real gains in ground clearance.

3. Fender cutout and flares for the oversized tires.

4. Six 37 inch tires, Wrangler MT/R with Kevlar. Two of the tires are left as spares. These are very tough tires for off road and are very resistant to puncture.

5. Six Rock monster bead lock rims. These are military grade rims. With these rims the tires can be inflated as little as 8psi and will hold the tires onto the rims. This is great for getting enhanced traction on dirt, rocks and sand.

6. Portable tool kit and JWR’s standard list of items for the G.O.O.D. vehicle.

7. Backup IDM – injector drive module wrapped in anti-static bags and aluminum foil for EMP hardening.

8. Backup PCM – Power train control module wrapped in anti-static bags and aluminum foil for EMP hardening.

9. Backup Camshaft sensor wrapped in anti-static bags and aluminum foil for EMP hardening.

10. Backup turbine shaft speed sensor wrapped in anti-static bags and aluminum foil for EMP hardening.

11. Two bed spare tire mounts to hold the tires on their side and minimize bed space used

12. Camouflage vinyl wrap – This allows for removable camouflage so that I can keep the typical civilian look in the city and become as invisible as possible in the wilderness.

13. Ten rolls of electrical tape – This allows me to cover all of my reflective trim on the vehicle that the vinyl wrap does not cover. From bumpers to rims the reflective metals become black.

14. Bullet resistant boxes – These are mounted to protect the original and auxiliary fuel tanks. I have used 3/16 steel plates welded together. Although I do not think they are bulletproof they still provide some protection without adding to much weight to the truck.

15. Bullet resistant helmets and plate carriers for each family member – With so many kids it seems I am constantly trying to balance fitting this gear on the kids while trying not to torture them to much with it. This solution is not really strictly vehicle related, but it is the vehicle solution that happens to work when you are outside the vehicle as well.

16. A Warn winch with 20,000 lb. capacity – If the truck is tipped over then it should be able to self-recover with a little luck. The rule for winches is to get one that is rated with at least twice the capacity as the weight of the vehicle.

17. A 40mm ammo can – to store all of my aluminum-foil wrapped [Faraday-protected electronic] backup parts.

18. Stock tools upgrade – upgrading the stock tire changing tools by replacing them with a tire iron and hydraulic jack gives me a lot more confidence. Adding a torque wrench is also required with the proper size socket for your lug nuts.

I believe this solution satisfies most of the requirements. Now the plan will be for me to determine how many different off-road routes I can map out on my topographical map. I will do this by going on expeditions between my home and retreat before I actually need to. I have to work on training all of the driving age family members to drive off the road including knowing appropriate tire pressures and maneuvering. I still have not come up with a good solution for bullet resistance on the engine and I am not sure to what extent I should plate the under carriage. Is the threat of an IED a realistic one in our country?

Ford has made it very easy to buy the dealer shop manuals, both in electronic and hard copy. I have purchased the three volumes in hard copy. I think they are a great investment.

My opinion is that this is the quickest most cost effective solution to my requirements. I look forward to hearing what the readers have to say.

Good luck everyone and may God be with us all.



Letter Re: Implications of the National Strike in India

Sir,
I logged a computer help desk report today after the auto update system deleted my sound card. I was annoyed with my computer and irritated when the India based call-taker misheard what I was saying. He apologised saying he had been on at work very early today.

We continued the call and I casually asked what time he had started in the morning. He went on to tell me they had stayed overnight in the office due to a national strike in India. He had started at 5am, it was now 1pm and although he was due to finish at 6pm they didn’t know who was going to cover the night shift (they support our company 24/7) so may have to continue past the 13 hours he was already due to work.

Whilst I was waiting for my PC to reboot I asked more about the strike. It turns out that the government has increased fuel prices by a further 3.5 rupees ($0.07) per litre for the third time this year. There is a national strike in protest as the cost of food and public transport will also increase.

Our colleagues in India did not go home last night and have limited food today since there is no vehicle movement (even private cars are not allowed to travel), therefore there is no food being transported into the city. They do not know whether they have to save what food they do have for tomorrow as well.

There are two offices in India supporting our company, the second one is closed today, therefore our colleagues in Bangalore are covering the work of two offices whilst tired and probably pretty concerned .

Just as we were finishing up he heard an announcement internally to ask that anyone with the car in front of the office should move it around the back so the rioters did not know that the office was still functioning.

Whilst you may be annoyed that your computer is not working please give your best consideration to the men and women who are doing their best to support you in very trying circumstances. I would not have even known the pressure he was under if I had not asked.

So, a rise of 30 cents a gallon causes food shortages and rioting….. My thoughts and prayers are with my company colleagues that this problem may pass peacefully.

Kind regards, – Ian in Nanny State Britannia