Letter Re: Some Observations From a Texas Winter Storm

Jim,

In late January-early February of 2011 Texas got hammered two weeks in a row by serious cold temperatures and dangerous ice. The cold was so severe that many power plants went offline and we had rolling blackouts that lasted up to 45 minutes in some places (not at the Super Bowl however!) Over 50 power plants in Texas shut down at some point because they could not take the record cold temps on Feb. 2. While my home seemed to have missed the rolling blackouts, the place where I work had to go to emergency generator power for a while, and many of my friends lost power. One friend lost power for only about 20 minutes and it was enough time to freeze the pump to his well [casing]!

Combine the power outages with the ice on the roads, and you get a dangerous mixture. There were a lot of accidents on the roads and a lot of cold people in homes and offices. I was prepared and took adequate precautions when I saw the forecast. Were you prepared?

I want to discuss some of the commonsense preparations I made for the cold weather and some of the actions I took that kept me safe. Being a Survivalist is about more than prepping for some kind of TEOTWAWKI event. It is about being prepared for as many types of likely disasters as possible. I have previously written about the various survival kits that I have in my car and on my person. They came in handy these past couple of weeks! I was prepared. The following describes the preparedness steps that I had taken:

Step 1: in my car I carry a bed roll, sleeping pad and, in cold weather, a sleeping bag. One reason I do this is that I live over thirty miles from work and in my line of work, Security, I cannot just abandon my post and my client if one of my officers fails to show up. If I end up working a double shift from 0600-2200 due to an officer who could not make it in due to road conditions, but then my third shift is able to make it in, I am not going to drive home 30+ miles on ice only to sleep about 4 hours and get up and drive back to work on icy roads another 30+ miles. The safe thing to do is spend the night at work! My client is so good that they have even provided cots, sleeping bags, pillows and food in their emergency kit for anyone who needs to stay. I think that there were about 5-6 of us who spent the night at work during the first ice storm and 3-4 of us for the second storm the following week. One of the guys spent 3 days and 2 nights at work.

Step 2: Pay attention to the weather forecast! I cannot tell you how many times that I have been at work and people got surprised by the weather and were not dressed appropriately or did not have what the weather called for. Part of your daily routine really should be checking the weather forecast for today and the next five days. Especially during the winter when an ice storm or sudden change in temperatures is possible, and during hurricane/tornado season. Know your weather forecast. Because I had checked the forecast I was able to pack a small suitcase with spare clothes for work and off work and a shaving/toiletries kit and bring that with me the morning I thought we might get a storm. I was already thinking and planning ahead. If you live in the bubble of the moment and don’t concern yourself with tomorrow or the next day, you can get caught ill prepared. Now while I am experienced and skilled at driving in icy conditions, most people in North Texas are not. It is a lot like driving the bumper cars at the carnival or State Fair on DFW highways in a winter storm. Skilled though you may be, you cannot depend on the next guy being skilled. You can get hit by somebody else who knows not what they are doing on ice and snow.

Step 3: Dress for the outside weather. There are some folks at work who never even bring a coat because their car is in a warm garage attached to their warm house. The only cold they experience is the few seconds or minutes it takes to walk from their car to the office. What happens if you slide off the road and get stuck? or if a less skilled driver slams into your car and you have to walk for help? It was 12 degrees with a strong wind the other day here in Fort Worth, and if you are wearing shorts and a T-shirt (as some of my co-workers do in winter) you can get frostbite or hypothermia pretty quick in those kinds of conditions. Dress in layers for the outside, and then you can take off what you don’t need on the inside. But if you don’t have it you can’t put it on when you need it. I had on some good quality thermal underwear, my uniform (which is worthless in the cold…but that’s another story) some heavy duty, ultra warm socks (which I had not worn since my days in the Army at Fort Lewis over 25 years ago), my uniform coat, and very warm watch cap and gloves. I could survive the cold with this kind of clothing. I know a lot of folks down here in the Sun Belt in Texas do not own any serious cold weather gear because it rarely gets dangerously cold. About once every 7-8 years or so it gets this kind of cold. This was the third serious cold spell I can remember in 25 years. If you have the money, you need to get at least one set of serious cold weather clothes including boots.

Step 4: Carry extra food,  water, and meds. I have a duffle bag that has enough MREs and canned food and canteens of water to survive on for about 4 days at least. Now, the down side to carrying this duffle bag is that on days when it is going to be below freezing, I have to bring it inside the building with me.  That’s attractive. “Who is the idiot carrying that dufflebag in every day?” Yeah well, when my co-worker and I spent the night at work with several others, guess who had food the next morning without having to go out to a restaurant?! Granted it was MREs and canned Chili Mac, but it was food. You really don’t want your canned fruit or your canteens of water freezing in your car, so bring it inside. I do leave it outside in the car in the blazing heat of the Texas summers and that does cut down the lifespan of your survival stash so you need to rotate your stock. So in this recent cold spell I had Cheese Tortellini and a Chicken Breast that tasted like, well, Army rations. Not the best, but it was food. I shared some of my canned goods with my partner who politely turned down the chance at eating an MRE. This is an important point about being a Prepper: plan on and prepare for sharing. I am a Christian and believe in trying to practice the Golden Rule from Matthew 7:12 “So, whatever you wish that others would do to you,do also to them, for this is the law and the prophets.” This article is titled after Mark 12:28-31, which says: “Hear O Israel: The Lord our God, the Lord is one. And you shall love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind and with all your strength. The second is this: You shall love your neighbor as yourself. There is no other commandment greater than these.” Prepare in order to share! If you are medicine dependent be sure to include a few days supply of your meds in your emergency planning as well.

Step 5: Learn how to drive on the ice and snow! One of my crew called off for two days during the first ice storm. We split the OT and got it covered, no problem. But when he finally made it in I talked with him a little bit about learning to drive on ice. Down here in Texas you just don’t get a whole lot of opportunities to drive in the stuff, so everybody goes nuts or stays home scared. I told the young man to find an empty parking lot and practice. Practice accelerating, turning, skidding and recovering, and stopping. Figure out how your car reacts to the ice. Practice in a safe, empty parking lot or a street with not obstacles.

Step 6: Learn the differences between snow, sleet and ice. Freezing fog, drizzle or rain is the worst. Clear ice is the most dangerous regardless of your skill level. People up north like to brag about all the ways they can handle the deep snow they get. Snow is bad for driving (more about snow later) but we Texans get more ice than snow. Our weather patterns are such that we tend to get ice or sleet more than snow. Freezing rain is extremely dangerous. Bridges and overpasses will tend to freeze first with the freezing rain. So you are driving along in the rain and the road is fine, until you hit that bridge and you lose it. Even if you are highly skilled in winter driving, clear, glazed ice will get you if a slope or turn is involved. Momentum, gravity, speed and ice are merciless, even if you know what you are doing. Here is where paying attention to the weather is crucial, as well as knowing your route (more about that soon). If you do not realize that it has been 32 or 31 degrees for a little while and you do not slow down at the bridges your are in the danger zone. Without even turning the wheel or stepping on the brakes your car can begin to slide in a wrong direction on ice. Slowing down before you cross the bridge is crucial, but don’t stomp on the brakes! Drive at least 10-15 mph slower than the speed limit on the road if you suspect icing, and as you approach the bridge or overpass, let off the gas, tap your brakes BEFORE getting on the bridge, and stay as straight as you can. Sleet is easier to drive on than glazed ice. Sleet is like tiny hail, little balls of ice. They make the road surface slick but crunchy. It is still very dangerous, and the whole momentum+gravity+speed thing can still take over your car, but it is much better than glazed ice. Sleet on highways and roads will be able to form grooves as it is traveled on. Being the first guy to drive down a sleet covered road can be difficult, but if a few others have gone ahead of you, there should be some nice tire ruts that actually help keep you safer. Snow is easier still. The tire tracks can really help keep you safe.

The problem with snow is if you get a lot of it and if you have blizzard conditions where you get whited out and cannot see. I saw a picture of a highway up by Chicago after their blizzard a few weeks ago, and hundreds of cars were stuck on the highway in the snow, going nowhere. Now you are stranded, perhaps far from home or work either one. That is one of the most dangerous situations ever. I read a sad story of a man that was stranded somewhere in a snowdrift for a week or so, and he finally shot himself dead. He made no effort to get himself out of the bad situation, he was simply waiting for someone else to rescue himself until he lost hope. That is pitiful. Being stranded in snow requires most of what I have already talked about: food, water, clothing, warm blankets. Let me add that your cell phone is an important asset at a time like this too. Band together with other drivers, don’t go it alone. Get somewhere safe that is near, don’t try to get home unless it is very close and you are certain you can get there.

Step 7: Know your route and recon alternative routes. I have four routes out of my neighborhood plus one other route but it goes in a direction I just would never take. I have three ways to get to downtown Ft. Worth and then two ways to get to Hurst, three if you count taking the access road. From Hurst I have two ways to get to Grapevine (other side routes are also available but do not make sense in most situations). In good weather I go one set of ways, in icy weather I go a couple of different ways. Many people are just in a little bubble on their way to an from work. My wife likes to explore different ways and she knows a lot of side streets to take if construction or weather block he path to work. Listen to the radio for traffic reports if you live in the city. My shortest route home from work is 27.5 miles. It is also the slowest. My quickest route is 32.5 miles. That’s a five mile difference. Know the different routes to and from your normal places that you travel. Ask yourself hard questions about your routes. Are there danger areas that would potentially cause you a problem if your car breaks down? Is one route prone to flash flooding? Is there an overpass you can park under if a hailstorm happens on your way to work? Is there a steep hill and a stop sign at the bottom that would be impossible to stop at in icy conditions?

Step 8: Communicate! Let someone know when you leave, where you are headed, which route you are taking, and when you are expected to arrive. Have that cell phone handy, and a car charger. If you have trouble, get stuck, call someone and tell them where you are and what your plan of action is. I usually leave home before my work partner. I will sometimes call and give a weather or road conditions report to her before she leaves. If I am running late I can call my desk officer and advise him of the situation. Communicate!

Conclusion: Winter storms are nothing to take lightly, there are serious dangers that you should take under consideration. Plan ahead, watch the weather, dress appropriately for the outside, practice driving, communicate. Here are a couple of stories about the power problems in Texas. Hmmm, what would happen if all the power went away, for months? or years?

May the Lord bless you and your family, – B.E.W.

Economics and Investing:

Commentary from Barry Eichengreen in the Wall Street Journal: Why the Dollar’s Reign is Near an End. (Thanks to Jeff E. for the link.)

Also from Jeff: Muni Default Estimate: $100 Billion.

A site that maps gasoline prices, by county, has been mentioned here before: Gas Buddy.

So much for the “recovery”: February planned layoffs highest in 11 months: Challenger

Items from The Economatrix:

Can you feel the artificial stimulus trickling down? US Auto Sales Jump 20% In February. (Perhaps people are out shopping for more fuel-efficient cars.)

Oil Prices Jump On Middle East, Bernanke Comments  

Manufacturing Growing at Fastest Pace in Seven Years   

US Deficit Number One Threat To Global Economy  

The Big Financial Lie  

Jason Hommel muses about silver, electricity, well pumps, and societal collapse: Storm Has Passed  

Odds ‘n Sods:

Italy gets over-run: More Than 140,000 People Flee Libya. Where will you be, when America’s cities are disgorged? Avoid living along refugee lines of drift!

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Because of some recent supply difficulties with Yoder’s, CampingSurvival.com has recently switched to Keystone brand canned beef, chicken, and turkey meat and broth.

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They’d better include some Kevlar: Bam! Pow! Superhero Groups Clash in an Epic Battle of Good vs. Good. (Kudos to F.G. for the link.)

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Reader R.P.B. sent this link: Rural Survival.

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Daniel H. mentioned that Pastor Chuck Baldwin has begun a series of insightful sermons on interpreting Romans Chapter 13. (The link is to just the first of a series.) It is noteworthy that Baldwin recently moved his entire extended family from Florida to Montana because he anticipates tumultuous events in the near future. SurvivalBlog readers will be particularly interested that Baldwin mentions: A.) Family preparedness, B.) cross-country relocation for the sake of liberty, and C.) The Biblical foundation of the Second Amendment.

Notes from JWR:

There are several new properties listed at our spin-off web site: SurvivalRealty.com. My #1 Son has enjoyed great success in connecting buyers with sellers of rural and truly remote properties, both on-grid and off-grid. Ads there are still just $30 per month, and there is no commission charged to either the seller or buyer!

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Today we present another two entries for Round 33 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and B.) Two cases of Alpine Aire freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $400 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 250 round case of 12 Gauge Hornady TAP FPD 2-3/4″ OO buckshot ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $240 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, C.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and D.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.) , and B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value.

Round 33 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Minutes Mean Miles, by Jerry the Generator Guy

Most of us do not have the option of being able to live in our “bug out” location.  I have noticed that there are several common limiters for being able to quickly exit a locale;

  1. Time spent deciding on and gathering items to take.
  2. Time spent physically loading the vehicle(s).

This sort / load time issue is the same regardless of the quantity of stuff to be loaded. The same issues apply whether this is “the big one” or if the need is strictly for a local issue. The “prep” time, if done now, is a no dollar or low dollar activity.

As an example in the novel “Patriots” several hours were spent by Mike and Lisa Nelson in getting. They mentioned “We spent half a day…” and “ …should have done a practice load-up” [page 21-22 ]. Dan Fong and Tom Kennedy “took a lot longer… to pack up [than anticipated]” [ page 24 ].  The time required in these fictional instances are in my opinion reasonable and make the text more realistic. 

Several local people who were interviewed after a fire-forced evacuation stated that they spent a lot of time deciding just what to take or leave. They wished that they had made the decisions in advance.

Anyone’s thought process, in an emergency, probably isn’t working at full speed and clarity. An alternative method, which avoids random “grab and go”, that we plan to use is hereby offered.

The decision on what items will or will not be going should be made now.  These choices will be reviewed periodically.  Items that are selected to be taken are stored physically separated from other items.  Example: Which books go?  Answer: Books that are filed on certain shelves go. No sorting process will be necessary.  Every book on these specific shelves go  – Load All.  Repeat for tools, clothes,  ….  We will not spend any time looking at other candidates.  Result: The selection time at “go” is nearly zero.

Once the go / no-go decisions are discussed and agreed upon then you must do an actual load exercise.  This exercise is to determine if there is physical room in the vehicle to load as planned.  Expect to find areas where your plan doesn’t equal desire. You have the luxury of trying alternatives and selecting a revised load plan.  Result: The lost time at “go”, caused by load do-over, will be near zero.

I believe that this planning and verification method will result in at least two hour or more time reduction between the “go” decision and engine start. These avoided “get ready” hours mean that we are many miles already in route while others are getting started. Remember the traffic delays that were mentioned prior to Hurricane Katrina?  Those who left early had no or only minor travel delays. Avoid the hassle – do the plan and verify now.

We hope to see you at the “Troy Barter Faire”! (For those of you wondering what this means, see Chapter 14 in “Patriots”.)

JWR Adds: As I’ve noted in many of my writings, a “test load” is incredibly instructive. Any items that you’ll need at your retreat that won’t fit in your vehicles must be pre-positioned at your retreat. In many situations you may have only one, I say again, one trip Outta Dodge. There will be no going back for a second load!

The Scottish Snowstorms of Winter 2010-2011

In November, it started to snow in the British Isles.  I remember this date well because on the way to Edinburgh from Manchester, my car hit a patch of black ice and skidded at roughly 60 miles per hour. The car was wrecked; I staggered away unhurt.  I wasn’t the only one to have a nasty accident on the first day and I was certainly one of the lucky ones.  There were many injuries and deaths on the first day.

Matters only got worse over December.  There was an unprecedented level of snowfall in Britain.  The roads were jammed up, even in the cities, making it difficult to travel around even on a local scale.  The railways cancelled many trains; airports were closed and even shipping was badly affected. 

To be fair to the local authorities, they had been making preparations for snowfall after the events of the previous winter.  It had been bad in 2009-10, but worse in 2010-11.  Even so, their logistics were badly dented by the snow; it was impossible, despite their best efforts, to grit many or even all of the roads before the snow fell again, clogging up the transport lanes again.

In Edinburgh, where I observed personally, the main roads were opened by the council, who deployed grit lorries to melt the snow.  It was not, however, a completely successful endeavour.  Accidents continued to multiply, while the roads gridlocked as traffic that would normally have gone on side roads poured out onto the main roads.  The bus services – normally fairly good – were badly impacted.  The buses were often packed so heavily that they couldn’t pick up new passengers and, on at least one day, all services were cancelled, leaving your humble writer with a two hour walk back home.

At first glimpse, compared to some of the other natural disasters that are reported on this site, it doesn’t seem that the snowfall in Britain is very significant.  It did, however, have a number of extremely worrying implications for the future, should the SHTF on a wider scale.

-Food deliveries into Edinburgh were delayed, quite badly.  The smaller shops ran out quickly – milk was a particular problem – and even the big supermarkets were adversely affected by the delays.  There was an air of ‘calm panic’ in the air, with people buying as much as they could, often without worrying about storage or cost.
-Fuel deliveries were also limited.  While there was no rise in the cost of fuel, there was a shortage of fuel in Edinburgh and elsewhere, as deliveries couldn’t get through. 
-Private transport of all kinds was badly affected.  In the minor roads, cars were – quite literally – buried in the snow.  I saw people using everything from salt to boiling water to try to get their vehicles out of the snow, mostly unsuccessfully.  Even those who did succeed found themselves gridlocked when they got onto the main roads.  It should come as no surprise that the accident rates in Edinburgh rose sharply.
-Public transport was slowed or stopped altogether. 
-Crime rates rose as the snow made it easier for the perpetrators to carry out their crimes and then vanish.  The police were unable to respond as quickly as normal to any crisis.
-Death rates rose nationally as people, mainly the elderly, started freezing to death in their homes.  Community support services were badly weakened by the snow – worse, many elderly people were unable to afford to heat their homes in the snow.  A number of people were reported to have starved through lack of food.
-Water services were badly affected, both when pipes froze and when they burst.
-Electric power lines were damaged, causing blackouts in part of the country.
-Demands for cough medicine – indeed, any kind of medicine – rose sharply.

It is probably also worth mentioning, although an indirect issue, that the economic effects of the snowfall were extremely bad.  Insurance payments rose sharply in the wake of the snowfall, while businesses suffered badly from reduced personnel as workers couldn’t get into work on time. 

As I noted above, the local authorities did what they could.  The problem was that the scale of the disaster was simply too great for them to tackle immediately.  Most citizens had to fall back on their own resources rather than wait for the government to help them.  If the disaster had been much more serious, I doubt that we could have avoided a massive die-off. 

Three years ago, it would have been reasonable to say that we would never get such snowstorms in Britain.  There are no longer any grounds for refusing to prepare.  Therefore, I suggest:

-Stocking up on preserved food and drink that can be used as an emergency reserve if the stores run out completely.
-Stocking up on bottled water and other drinks.
-Preparing camping equipment, on the assumption that the electric services will cut out completely.  Store gas for campfires, battery-powered lights and sleeping bags.  A collection of old, but warm clothes would be very useful.
-Stocking up on de-icer, [tire traction] grit (if available), salt and sugar (for melting ice) and suchlike.
-Refueling the car prior to the first snowstorms.  Ideally, using the car should be kept to a minimum in such bad weather, but if you have to use it…also, familiarise yourself with emergency procedures for a crash.
-Consider the situation of any elderly relatives you have.  If they live with you that should be easier to handle than if they live apart.  If they live away, do what you can for them before the snow starts to fall. 
-It’s probably also worth looking into Britain’s often absurd self-defence laws.  The blunt truth is that the whole situation is a nightmare for anyone charged with using excessive force.  As I understand it (I am no lawyer) one can legally use the minimum necessary force to remove an intruder from one’s premises and no more.  Be careful!  There will be plenty of idiots who will look back with the benefit of hindsight and say that you used excessive force.  Even so, remember that your family’s safety comes first.

In the immortal words of the British Army, remember the Seven Ps.
“Prior Planning and Preparation Prevents P**s-Poor Performance.”

Letter Re: Off-Grid Living on an Alaskan Island

Hello,
Many US military personal who serve on an isolated duty station, in effect live off grid.  For example I was in the U.S. Coast Guard and stationed at Cape Sarichef, Alaska for a year. [It is at the end of Unimak Island.]          

We had three large Caterpillar generators.  We got our water from a reservoir that was filled from mountain runoff.  I would go the reservoir when needed and start a small hand pull pump (during the winter could take almost 30 minutes to get started.) This would pump the water along a buried pipe line, with evenly spaced vents (to let the air out).  

We had a fuel farm.  Our heating was via two #2 diesel fueled boilers.  All heating equipment and almost all the vehicles ran on diesel fuel. We got our water pressure from a 5,000 gallon water tank on a hill above the station.

There was a septic tank and dispersal field.  Which seemed to work just fine in the bitterly cold winter, which surprised me.  We got most of our supplies via a Coast Guard C-130 once a month.  We had a runway constructed of volcanic ash and stone.  There was also a World War II runway about a two-hour drive away.  

If we were to have gotten stuck there with no re-supply we would have been in trouble for heat once the diesel ran out.  There are no trees on that island.  We had an incinerator and a dump for anything that could not be burned.  

The only way on or off the island was by air plane or helicopter.  Other than having some way to provide heat in the winter that would be the perfect place to live.  There were caribou, moose, whistle pigs [groundhogs], red foxes, seals, and a pack of feral Alaskan huskies. There were brown bears there, too.  

Two Letters Re: Nickels as an Inflation Hedge

Jim,
Just another data point for you about Nickels, from North Carolina.  My bank continues to order boxes [of $100 face value in nickel rolls] for me, but they were told by their supplier that 20 boxes was the new limit per week (I had asked for 55 boxes).  The funny thing is the manager said they would simply order me 20 boxes/week until I had what I wanted!

They also noted a strong uptick (from essentially none) in customer requesting nickels for the same reason I am getting them – base metal value.  Though none more than a couple of boxes.

I get a sense that pretty soon banks will be either unwilling or unable to give customers nickels in large enough quantities to satisfy demand. Cheers, – Pete C.

Sir:
I have been following your blog and my wife and I are looking to be more prepared and have been at if for some time.  Your posting on nickels makes sense to me, with one exception:  What good are nickels going to be in hyper-inflated, blown up economic world?  Wouldn’t hyper-inflation make them essentially worthless even if they double?  Shouldn’t already stretched budgets be better directed at larger silver denominations, I.E. – pre-1965 coins?  So, even if the cost doubles shortly, would it be worth storing and carting around for purposes of barter?   Thank you, – David S.

JWR Replies: To clarify, the face value of U.S. five cent coins will soon be just as meaningless as the value markings on seen pre-1965 U.S. silver coinage. (Dimes, Quarters, Half Dollars, and Dollars.) Only a fool, a crack head, or an uneducated child would spend silver coins at face value. Eventually the same will be true for nickels. Why? Pre-1965 U.S. silver coins are now worth more than 25 times their face value. (“25x face.”) Unlike paper money, the nickel coins of the current composition will be never be “worthless”. Since they are composed of 75% copper and 25% nickel (“75/25”), they will always have at least the base metal value of those metals. (Currently about 130% of their face value.) And, as insurance against unlikely deflation and falling metals prices, the nickels could always be spent back into circulation. Thus, they are as close to a “you can’t lose” hedge as you could ever hope for.

Presently nickels are in odd and always short-lived situation for a circulating coin: Their base metal value exceeds their face value. But for now, they are still freely available at their face value. Gresham’s Law dictates that they will soon be driven from circulation. Mark my words: Once the base metal value surpasses 10 cents for the 75/25 composition Nickels, they will almost magically disappear from circulation. Poof! They will be gone.

Something very similar happened to silver Dimes, Quarters, Half Dollars in the mid-1960s. In 1964 they were still found in everyone’s pocket change, but by the end of 1965 they had nearly all been wisely gathered in Mason jars at home and put under lock and key. This is explained by the Coinage Act of 1965, that introduced debased coins (copper slugs that were just flashed with silver), that started circulating side-by-side with the genuine 1964 and earlier silver coins. Gresham’s Law dictated that the new, debased “bad” money would drive the older genuine “good’ money out of circulation. Just a few years later, most of the the 90% silver coins that were deem non-numismatic (derisively called “junk” silver by collectable coin dealers) had been gathered into $500 and and $1,000 face value bags, and traded as a commodity. We need to learn from history. It doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.

The same thing will happen to nickels, when the U.S. Treasury inevitably introduces a debased nickel. Coin experts predict that the new five cent piece will either be a stainless steel slug, or a zinc slug that is flashed with nickel or silver. Either way, a “nickel” will no longer contain any appreciable amount of nickel. But being sheeple, folks will probably still call them “nickels”.

Inflation is inexorable. The abandonment of silver coinage by the U.S. Treasury in the 1960s was the inevitable result of currency inflation. The debasement of the lowly nickel is merely the next logical step. There no way that a nation can afford to continue to produce a coin with a metallic content value that exceeds its circulating face value. I therefore strongly recommend that my readers take advantage of this opportunity before the window closes.

Yes, silver coins are great for barter. So is common caliber ammunition. But I predict than nickels might someday have a favored status for small day-to-day purchases. If and when the spot price of silver shoots up past $100 per ounce, it will make even a silver dime too valuable to be used as the smallest currency unit. How will you make minor purchases like a can of beans or a loaf of bread? Even today, with silver at $34.60 per ounce, one silver dime is worth around $2.55. Extrapolated to $100 per ounce silver, that means that one silver dime will be worth the equivalent of about $7.50. So how are you going to make “change” for small transactions? I posit that 75/25 nickels will be ideal for use as that small change. Perhaps people might by consensus make them the equivalent of pennies, with 100 nickels equaling the value of $1.00 face value in pre-’65 silver coinage.

It is difficult to predict exactly how nickels will be traded in the event of a currency collapse. But we can be assured that they will be traded. One of the most dependable constants of a free market is that every tangible product with both usefulness and a limited supply does reach price equilibrium quickly.

Economics and Investing:

At last report, Spot Silver was at $34.65 per Troy Ounce. I told you so…

Ben S. mentioned: Is the U.S. dollar still a safe haven?   Ben notes: “One opinion in this article is that the dollar is overvalued by 8%.  If this is true, wouldn’t the US Dollar Index also be overvalued by the same, thus resulting in an index of approximately 71?” 

Peter Schiff: “We’re in the Early Stages of a Depression”

Items from The Economatrix:

History Tells Us That A Surge In Fuel Costs Makes A US Recession Likely 

Silver Squeeze to Continue  

The Silver Bullet And The Silver Shield  

Why The Financial Werewolves Hate Silver  

Marc Faber:  I Think We Are All Doomed 

Odds ‘n Sods:

Anyone who owns a FAL or an L1A1 rifle and wants to do any at-home gunsmithing should own one of these.

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Roman sent us news of a fascinating development in monolithic dome building technology: Basalt Roving Dome. Imaging this scaled up, and a few additional layers? Talk about blast proof! (Dome-shaped buildings also have Bernoulli’s Principle going for them–they don’t “catch” wind” like slab-sided buildings.)

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Lily spotted this over at Paratus Familia: Practical Preparedness – Pharmaceuticals

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Seed for Security is offering a free gift for a limited time. Every order over $45 will receive a free seed saving guide with practical step by step instructions. It is full of tips that they have learned from many years of experience. Six 8″ x 6″ metallized poly bags are also included with this offer, so you can try your hand at saving precious seeds.

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F.G. flagged this: Arkansas Quake Is Its Most Powerful in 35 Years

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Reason # 298,244 to not live in the Land of Lincoln Obama: Attorney General: Illinois should release FOID card list.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The majority of Americans get their news and information about what is going on with their government from entities that are licensed by and subject to punishment at the hands of that very government.” – Neal Boortz, 2004

Notes from JWR:

I just heard from my publisher that “Survivors” (the first of two sequels to my novel “Patriots: A Novel of Survival in the Coming Collapse”) will have its first press run in a hardback binding, followed by a trade paperback, and then possibly a mass market paperback. The books will be published by the Atria and Pocket Books divisions of Simon & Schuster. “Survivors” is now in the final stages of editing, and I’m meanwhile busy writing the second sequel, which is tentatively titled “Citizens”. As I’ve mentioned before, the sequels will be geographically distinct but contemporaneous with “Patriots”. We are hoping for a release date for “Survivors” in early November of 2011. I have plans to announce another “Book Bomb Day”, so please don’t place any pre-orders, when you see the book listed with on-line sellers. Thanks!

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Today we present another entry for Round 33 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and B.) Two cases of Alpine Aire freeze dried assorted entrees, in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $400 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A 250 round case of 12 Gauge Hornady TAP FPD 2-3/4″ OO buckshot ammo, courtesy of Sunflower Ammo (a $240 value), and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, C.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and D.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.) , and B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value.

Round 33 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

From Cartridge to Target: A Bullet’s Flight and Impact, by HardWalker

Lots of care and time are taken to select the appropriate firearm. A precisely crafted piece of machinery primarily designed to do one thing, send a chunk of metal downrange and high speeds with the intention of killing someone or something. There are many ways of doing this and many types of bullets designed for many different purposes. We all can gather the hearsay of what round is the best, which manufacturer has the furthers traveling, hardest-hitting or bang-for-buck ammunition. So when it’s all said and done, understanding what happens to that piece of copper, steel and lead once it leaves the barrel is crucial when we’re faced with pulling the trigger to save lives or to feed our family members.

Ideally when a bullet is fired it travels in a straight line from barrel to target. However ideal worlds do not have air resistance and gravity, the two most hampering factors when a bullet’s path are scrutinized. Many different tools have been manufactured to ensure that a bullet makes it mark every time the trigger is pulled.

When we mount a scope on our rifles, or adjust our sights we are not changing any physical properties about the direction of our barrel or bullet, instead we are using our optics system to create a constant variable of sight to compensate for gravity and resistance. So if you were to place your barrel parallel to the ground your cross hairs may fall above and to either side of your intended target. When you hold the weapon and train the cross-hairs on the target you have adjusted it so that you are actually holding the weapon at an slight angle, preferably the proper angle that will take the bullet in whatever direction you have deemed fit to place a round into a desired space at a certain range while at the same time compensating for gravity and air resistance.

When the bullet does leave a barrel, it does so at a velocity (speed) determined by:

  • The bullet’s weight. (The weight measured in grains. Each grain is 1/7,000th of a pound),
  • The size of the charge (gunpowder, also measured in grains),
  • The length of the barrel, and
  • The type of bullet. (Round nose versus pointed nose.)

The velocity determines the distance traveled before it hits the ground and the energy it puts into a target when it hits. The higher the speed (closer the target as bullets lose speed over distance and time) and heavier the bullet, then the greater the damage.

When utilizing firearms there are two distances that you must be familiar with. These are the maximum range of the weapon and the maximum effective range. The latter being the farthest distance a round can accurately be placed into a target. Maximum range is the distance the bullet will travel before hitting the ground. It is true that different types of rounds, FMJ, hollow-core, partition, etc. will extend and decrease these distances however their effect is usually not more than [a difference of] a few yards.

On a side note; rifling greatly increases accuracy over distance by spinning the bullet. This creates a gyroscopic effect that stabilizes the projectile. The extent of this twisting is displayed as a barrels ‘twist rate’ and is measured by the number inches it takes for the groves to make one complete rotation within the barrel. 1 in 10” and 1 in 6” are examples of barrel twist rates. Different barrels for different rounds have a different number of grooves all manufactured to be the ideal number and twist rate for the intended round. Lower velocity/grain bullets (.22 LR is typically 1 in 16”) require lower twist rates to achieve nominal accuracy and vice versa for heavier weight bullets (.30-06 is typically 1 in 10”). Longer barrels mean more rifling (in most cases), different thicknesses mean reduced vibration, better heat dissipation and better pressure control. Over-rifling a barrel (too tight a twist) will actually spiral the bullet in a manner earlier in flight than designed, as described in the next paragraph.

As it’s velocity slows at greater distances, this spinning begins to affect bullet by spiraling it as it still takes a straight path. So when it impacts a target at high distances this spiraling will actually continue to affect the bullet as it enters and exits the target creating a slightly curved path. Ballistic Forensics experts use this property of projectiles to determine the distance that the bullet was fired from and is an important factor when firing on targets at great distances. This is most apparent when considering ‘grouping’ at different distances as groups become larger.

So now our Winchester .30-06 150 grain soft-point is flying through the air. During it’s flight, it would have left the barrel at 2,920 feet per second (f.p.s.) the bullet would have risen approximately 3 inches at 100 yards (That compensation we included when sighting our scope) before dropping an inch (because of gravity) and slowing to about 2,600 f.p.s. (due to air resistance) on impact at 150 yards. At that distance the circular error probability from typical 1 in 10” rifling would have increased from 0” at muzzle to about 2.5” creating a target area 5”across the chest.

Our unlucky mutant-biker gets hit square in the sternum at 150 yards, just 0.2 seconds after the projectile leaves the barrel. In .0005 seconds the bullet will have entered and exited it’s target. At .0001, the bullet hits and enters a depth of about 1.5cm or the width of your pinky nail before deforming as it was designed to do. The immense energy of the impact (2,800 Joules) will open a cavity 20 cm (8 in.) wide at .0002 as the bullet fragments and transfers it’s energy into his body before exiting his back. At .0004 the energy dissipates and the cavity collapses, jettisoning the liquefied flesh, bone and muscle through an exit wound approximately 15cm (6 in.) wide starting from the back of the sternum in a spray. One can see why this is a desirable sniper cartridge.

For a more typical scenario the same target, same distance but with a 7.62×39 Steel Core AK-47 round will hit with less velocity, around 2,400 f.p.s. The bullet is not designed to fragment, and at 150 yards, it will enter and exit cleanly if not hindered (by bone, metal, or Kevlar). However the impact and entrance will create a temporary cavity 3-4 inches wide and will shock nearby vital organs and cause them to hemorrhage. It is important to note that some bullets will actually ‘tumble’ inside victims or curve heavily due to a change in resistance (.22 LR ammunition is notorious for this). This is different from the spiral effect created from rifled barrels and is more important on a medical basis than accuracy.

It is very advisable that you research your preferred round’s impact profiles before purchasing what you think is a good round. Also research real-life effectiveness of the rounds. (From actual use in the field.) News stories are rampant of cops who fired multiple 9mm rounds and failed to incapacitate a criminal who had time to fire his own weapon before succumbing to his wounds.

JWR Adds: If the foregoing seems like complex list of variables, it is actually describing just the major ones. There are others, such as temperature, elevation, air pressure, and wind velocity. Bullet designs and their various terminal effects also differ widely. There are also many other factors that must be masteredsuch as parallax, shooting positions, uphill/downhill offset, and the shooter’s control of breathing. For more details, I highly recommend the book Ultimate Sniper by Maj. John L. Plaster.

Letter Re: LED Lighting Discount for SurvivalBlog Readers

Mr. Rawles,  
I have been a follower of SurvivalBlog for about a month now and have found great resources, deals and most importantly, useful information with your blog.  
As a business owner that has a focus on lighting (and energy efficient lighting of all sorts), we would like to offer SurvivalBlog readers a 20% discount coupon on any purchase from us for LED Lighting.  This discount does not apply to already discounted or clearance products.   Pretty simple – on any order of 10 bucks or more, your community can use coupon code: prepared-sb20 for 20% off their order in the shopping cart.  We will hold this promotion open until the SHTF!  

Thank you for your blog, the archives and most importantly, the quality information for those that are astute enough to “get it”.   I am just an average guy in Ohio that is not looking for any sort of promotion. I just want to extend a gesture to the preparedness community as I have found a ton of value in what you are doing. With all my best, keep up the great work,  Don Perkins, owner of CreativeLightings.com, LEDT8Tube.com, and LEDTape.com Phone: 1(877) 877-2340