Economics and Investing:

I predicted seeing ads once the base metal value of nickels hit two times their face value (“2X face”), but not this soon: BoxOfNickels.com. I’m confident that you can expect to see more such nickel entrepreneurs in the near future–especially once the base metal value exceeds 1.5 times face value. (7.5 cents for a nickel.)

Speaking of changing valuations (in this case, deflation), have you seen the chart showing the change Bitcoin values in the past three months? It now takes more than $15 USD to buy one BTC and in a brief spike the rate got up past $30.

Sue C. sent us this: Greek Default Is Inevitable

CNN Poll: Obama approval rating drops as fears of depression rise. (Half of Americans now fear another Great Depression.)

G.G. flagged this: Second-Mortgage Misery Nearly 40% Who Borrowed Against Homes Are Underwater

Items from The Economatrix:

Our Economic Future:  From Best To Worst Case

The Federal Reserve is Playing an Inflation Game

Worries Grow That US Could Default On Debt

Getting the Economic Fundamentals Right

US Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rose Last Week

Odds ‘n Sods:

Washington residents warned of ‘bloodthirsty’ dog pack

   o o o

Reader K.A.F. mentioned Quizlet, a web site with free downloadable flash cards and a study games. Great for homeschoolers!

   o o o

These had me laughing…

   o o o

Courtesy of Kevin S.: Deadly Fungus Strikes Joplin Tornado Survivors, Volunteers

   o o o

I heard that Camping Survival just received a large new supply of Yoder’s canned meats, including some canned bacon. They also have canned cheese and butter available. Camping Survival is presently offering a 5% off sale on every order, with coupon code “june2011promo“.  They are also offering a free T-shirt on orders of $85 or more. Stock up!

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“He that is unjust, let him be unjust still: and he which is filthy, let him be filthy still: and he that is righteous, let him be righteous still: and he that is holy, let him be holy still.

And, behold, I come quickly; and my reward [is] with me, to give every man according as his work shall be.

I am Alpha and Omega, the beginning and the end, the first and the last.

Blessed [are] they that do his commandments, that they may have right to the tree of life, and may enter in through the gates into the city.” – Rev 22:11-14 (KJV)

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 35 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and B.) Two cases of Alpine Aire freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $400 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo , and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, C.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and D.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.) , and B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value.

Round 35 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.       

Retreat Security Myths, by Grandy

The following are some of my thoughts about our planning when it comes to preparing retreat defenses.  Some will work, others maybe not as well, but I intended it to be motivation for SurvivalBlog readers to start thinking about these issues.  This is written mainly from a TEOTWAWKI standpoint and not your typical short term SHTF event.  But some of these concepts apply to both situations.

#1:  The Location Myth

More often than not, our retreats are in a somewhat secluded location.  Rural areas are typically the norm and the further away from built up urban areas the better.  But in a TEOTWAWKI situation, the lines between the two will become blurred as people will escape from urban areas and seek out refuge in rural areas.  Sometimes it will take a couple of days; others will take weeks and maybe even months.  But as supplies start to dwindle in urban areas, you can guarantee people will start looking towards the countryside for additional supplies and places to live.  And suddenly your secluded remote area becomes less likely to stay hidden and on the radar so to speak.

Unless one is staying on a deserted island where there is little chance of unwanted visitors, then everyone’s retreat is at risk of being discovered.  And in that discovery means interest will be placed.  Some may be good, some may be bad, but rest assured, your location will become an area of interest before long no matter where it happens to be.  Some less than others, but your secret will never be entirely safe.

So the myth is about the idea that a retreat is completely secluded and will not be found.  Everything will be found in due time and explored.  As stated before, some will take interest in the location, others will ignore it.  OPSEC plays a key in this (and in item #5) about how well your location might be hidden away, but it will never be entirely concealed.  And in knowing this, you can plan around the limitations. 

Knowing the limitations of location can be a powerful factor in deciding to buy land for a retreat or actually building the structure itself.  Things to look for:

How far away from the nearest major city or town is this area?

Are there sufficient avenues of escape as well as avenues of approach?

Is the area likely to be developed in the next 5 years?  10 years?  20 years?

Do you have neighbors and how close are they?

Is this in a known location (i.e. bordering a park, right off a major roadway, within sight of a lake/river shore) and easy to find?

How far off the main lines of “drift” is the location?  (Drift is defined as the natural path one would take from point A to point B.  Knowing this, will people inadvertently stumble onto your property because you sit in a valley between two mountains?)

And also, how often is your retreat checked before you bug out?  Is it in an area where theft can and will occur for valuable (or invaluable as people will steal anything) items and long term food storage?  Just because your retreat is away from most populated areas doesn’t mean it cannot be discovered and used without your knowledge.  And also squatters might very well be occupying your retreat before you get there.  How would you deal with that?

I’ve asked some questions, but the overall point is the fact no location (save our imaginary island in the middle of the ocean) is completely out of the way and can be discovered despite our best efforts.  So the myth of a particular location being safer than others is not necessarily true.

 

#2:  The Manpower Assumption

“I have XX amount of bodies in which to plan my defenses.”  Okay, good idea in theory, but is that taking into account what you actually have right then and there?  For example, you know for a fact you have five families coming to your retreat (let’s just say for argument’s sake it’s a really nice retreat that can sustain all those folks) in the event of TEOTWAWKI.  Now are you certain all five families are going to make it?  So let’s assume they do for a moment and you plan your defenses.  Are you taking into account the sick, lame and injured?  The “I have a migraine and cannot perform today” instances?  The injuries that can and will happen?  Can your defensive plans handle the loss of one or two?  Or maybe half in the event of a cold/flu outbreak that affects most of the group? 

Now let’s assume only three out of the five families made it and add to your manpower.  Are your plans in depth enough to account for the sudden loss of X amount of bodies?  Let’s face it, things can and will happen during a TEOTWAWKI situation that prohibits groups from arriving as they should.  And knowing this, one should take into account the decrease in manpower that will come.  And in preparedness, proper planning is king.

How do you attack these problems? By basing your estimates on knowing who actually will show up.  Start at one family and move up to your maximum number.  Your defenses should take into account a ten percent rule (ten percent of the manpower will be unavailable for duty due to sick/lame/injured) and still be able to function.  In this percentage, round up to the next ten for your real number.  (i.e. Sixteen people capable of performing defensive duties and five are out.  That’s 31%, so round up to 40%.  It’s not an exact science, but should work okay in your situation.)

Plan on removing a selected number of people from the equation and plan your defenses that way instead of going on the assumption everyone will be available for duty as needed.  Plus shift work as you will have to post sentries at night.  Do your plans take this into account?  Nighttime is the enemy and the friend.  It is a friend since a lot of folks will not be using higher technology to plan attacks and gives you a time for rest.  But it is an enemy as it does provide concealment for attackers and confusion on the part of the defenders.  If you are looking at a somewhat well trained adversary (let’s assume they are military trained) and has access to night vision or thermal technology, you are already on the bad side of the equation. 

So before you make plans for the maximum number of bodies available for duty, make plans to remove a selected portion of that number just in case.  As life happens, so will accidents and bodies not show up like they are supposed to.

 

#3:  The Good Neighbor Myth

“I can depend on my neighbors for help.  They are good people.”

One had to be careful when approaching neighbors in a post-TEOTWAWKI situation as they may have become very wary in those times and may have a shoot first identify later mentality.  Also, those planning on making contact with neighbors and forming a militia in the aftermath of a TEOTWAWKI situation can be in for a surprise as well.  Some folks just won’t go along with the program no matter how well you sell it.  They just don’t want to get involved no matter what.  So in forming a defensive plan for your retreat and even the local area, several factors need to be taken into consideration.

Don’t plan on outside help.  You cannot make defensive arrangements based on the fact X number of families live in the local area and will go along with what you planned for. Sure some will come along, but others will pretty much ignore you and tell you where to get off.  We live in a world of opinionated people and some just feel they will be safer on their own rather than in a group.  Some neighbors cannot be trusted either.  They could have a farm out in the country because they like horses and are your typical sheeple that come around with their hand out.  There are several types one should be wary of and it’s best to get to know them beforehand.

Be careful who you bargain/trade with.  Even bargaining only goes so far in a post TEOTWAWKI situation. So you are a good neighbor and recognize the fact Family X doesn’t have sufficient arms or ammunition to defend their property.  And in knowing more numbers are better than less, you decide to help out.  So you give family X a number of Mosin-Nagant rifles and X amount of ammunition in exchange for being your “sentries” on the outer perimeter. However, when someone comes along and offers them the same deal but with better weapons along with partitioning your land, assets and food storage, which one is harder to choose between? Loyalty among neighbors only goes as far as the next meal. Sure you provide neighbors with enough food for a week. They know it’s coming from somewhere and you have it. They want it and what you think are loyal friends suddenly become your adversaries because someone offered them a better deal.

Some will become friends for life, but human nature means some will be jealous of what you have.  They envy you because you were prepared and they weren’t. They despise you because you have what they don’t. They see you in a position of regent because you require certain actions in exchange for whatever your barter is. And suddenly it gets lonely at the top. Just because you are generous enough to give them items to survive doesn’t mean they won’t turn on you at the drop of a hat. Human nature cannot be changed or predicted.

Be wary of making retreat plans with neighbors in mind until it is absolutely certain they will be the best choice to depend on.

 

#4:  Critical Thinking in Defense

“I don’t need to defend this or that area” or “I have to defend everything” train of thought.  Based on manpower (or the lack thereof) one must consider what is critical and needs defending and what can be sacrificed before mounting a counterattack or successful defense.  In looking over your defenses, think like the opposition.  What areas are critical for my continued survival and have to be defended?  What areas are not so critical and need to be defended as manpower dictates?  What areas are not important enough and I should plan on covering them as a last resort without stretching my manpower out too thin?

The military calls it the CARVER Matrix. They use it to determine what areas are vulnerable and which ones can be lost without losing mission effectiveness.  The acronym stands for Criticality, Accessibility, Recuperability, Vulnerability, Effect and Recognizability.  It uses a numbering system that will aid in the highest level of survival to the lowest.  So let’s look at a makeshift CARVER Matrix and apply is against a long term survival retreat.  I’ll use a water well as an example.

Criticality: Highly critical as survival is dependent on a consistent water source
Accessibility:  The wellhead itself is somewhat easily accessed depending on type
Recuperability:  The well cannot be replaced easily if it is destroyed
Vulnerability:  Highly vulnerable as errant gunfire can damage components
Effect:  High impact on mission accomplishment as one cannot go long without water
Recognizability:  Not as recognizable as other structures

And in using the CARVER Matrix to determine defensive priorities, we can include the water well and nine other items.  These are just ten randomly selected items I grabbed off the top of my head and are not an inclusive list.

And, in sorting the data, we have arranged the defensive priority from highest to the lowest.

Going highest to lowest in terms of survival, the highest number is defended first and the lowest is last.  So our well would be first priority and the avenues of approach the last.  Again, this is something I threw together and is by no means gospel.  But one can see the idea behind the CARVER Matrix and how important it can be in planning defenses of a retreat.  These numbers will change as location changes at your retreat as water is far more valuable in the Southwest than say the Southeast.  Only you can determine what can be lived with or lived without, but at the same time, look at it from the opposition standpoint.  Normally hungry people will ignore a well and go straight for the food.  Or ignore the generator and go for your weapons.  Is electrical power highly critical to your survival or are you off the grid enough to survive without it?  And will that generator run without fuel?  So what is more important?  The generator or the fuel that runs it?

The spreadsheet I put together is assuming the water and ammo supplies will be inside your housing structure which would be defended.  And this is why they are lower on the matrix than the crops in the fields.  Fields are highly accessible which makes them a larger priority.  Lots of folks plan on defending avenues of approach, but forget about the house behind them.  Maintaining a watch on avenues of approach is one thing.  Providing defensive forces to cover an avenue of approach is different.

I would say use the CARVER Matrix as a guide when determining your defenses.  It’s generic enough for anyone to use, but specific enough for individual needs.  But you have to determine what you can and cannot live without before applying it to a retreat setting.

 

#5:  The Hiding in Plain Sight Myth

Which more or less goes with the location myth but in reality is its own portion.  However, some plan on being low key enough to avoid detection.  But this is a myth as signs of civilization are always apparent to those who look close enough.  Take your bug out cabin in the mountains for example.  You have your cabin and enough land to grow enough crops to live comfortably, water from a well, game animals in the local area that can be harvested, etc.  Nice location, but you want to keep is a secret.  So you go to great extents to conceal the fact it’s being “lived in.”  But there are always telltales of occupation.  Take this for example…

You move into your cabin and the first thing you do is clean the cobwebs from the windows so you can see better.  Maybe sweep the porch, grab that plastic bag that blew in from Lord only knows where and put it in your garbage or bury it, update your woodpile and replace the old tarp on top.  Other than that, you practice good light and litter discipline, good OPSEC and rarely venture outside unless you have to.  But what signs have you left?

Clean windows are a sign of occupation as is a swept porch.  Minor debris and whatnot in a yard is to be expected in an unoccupied location.  The hole you dug up will leave signs for a couple of weeks until the soil settles back down and the minor remains are washed away.  Your newly cut woodpile will leave sawdust and the wood is a different color as it hasn’t been weathered.  Plus there is a distinctive smell of freshly cut wood that lingers.  The tarp is new and not frayed as an unoccupied location might be.  You are also creating a path in the grass and nearby forest pointing to signs of recent activity. 

The point is, no matter what we do to try and hide in plain sight, there is nothing we ever do that cannot hide the fact our retreat is occupied.  You can limit the amount of activity, but there is nothing that can be done to “hide in plain sight.”

 

#6:  The Technological and Armament Superiority Myth

“I have this doodad that is the best on the market and will always work!” or “My gun is better than your gun because it’s superior!”

Glock lovers unite as this will be the only weapon still firing at D+15 post TEOTWAWKI!  Or so the myth goes and the owners will claim.  “Yeah, my pistol will last forever because it’s a Glock!” or insert firearm of choice here.  Whether it’s a 1911, Glock, Springfield M1A, AKM, tacticool M4gery, Remington 870…weapon type doesn’t matter.  Far too often the reasoning is given for buying said firearm(s) because of the longevity of the design and the parts not breaking.  Now I will give Gaston Glock his due when he created a seriously durable pistol, but it is not the “end all be all” of the pistol world as some will claim.  Same goes for 1911s, Berettas, SIG-Sauers, CZ, Hi-Points or any other pistols that have been or are manufactured today.  Some will last longer than others, but let’s face it; nobody has ever made an unbreakable firearm.  How does this translate into a retreat environment?  Simple, technology and high speed doodads are not going to keep you alive.  They will enhance your efforts to survive, but alone they cannot keep you from getting killed by the ranging hordes.

And in turn, it doesn’t matter about the superiority of your pistol/rifle/shotgun design if you fail to defend your retreat properly and/or do not place the emphasis in the right areas.  You can have 100,000 rounds of Black Hills match ammo for your Springfield M25 White Feather and it does you little good when your retreat is overrun.  The armament superiority myth comes in full force when the discussion of AK vs. AR-15 vs. M1A vs. FAL vs. SKS vs. HK91 vs. Mini-14 comes out.  “My gun is better than your gun, my gun’s better than yours!” (And I bet none of you can read that without having the Ken-L-Ration dog food jingle stuck in your head for at least 10 minutes.)

But anyway, people have a comfortable feeling because they have placed their faith in the ability of their firearms.  The death dealing, super rifle concept still has limitations and we often get wrapped up in the debate of how great it is to ignore the limitations of the system itself.  And ignoring those simple rules of the limitations of the system itself can be disastrous when we need it the most.  Overall, firearms are a mechanical device which falls under the following principles:

  • It can break
  • It will break
  • Fixing it will not be easy
  • These things will happen when Murphy decides it’s best and this is typically when you need it the most

Not to say firearms are not a vital tool in the defense of a retreat, but the lesson to be learned is “don’t get complacent with your system and ignore the limitations of same.”  A good case in point is the military continuing to put iron sights on rifles and not relying completely on scopes.  The scopes these days are pretty reliable, but they can (and will) break, fixing them isn’t easy and too often it happens in the middle of a gunfight.  A whiz bang, super duper precision rifle capable of MOA accuracy at a thousand meters suddenly becomes pretty limited when that high dollar scope breaks and you didn’t buy iron sights.  All firearms have limitations in some form or other.

The same can be said of any technology we use, no matter how primitive it might be.   Now I’m not one of those that thinks we should be back to basics on everything, but we often rely on technology to make our retreats run.  And in that reliance, we have no backups to the critical systems.  Or we lack the knowledge to repair the systems and/or they are too complex to be repaired easily.  We end up placing too much faith in technology and not enough in our brainpower and understanding of the systems needed to survive.  Sure enough, we may know how to fix things, but can we do without them and go back to basics at our retreat?  Do we have the capability to get water when our well breaks?  Is our retreat packed away with the spare parts needed to repair our technology if and when it breaks?  Do we have secondary and alternate systems in place if and when our items break?  Do I need to preposition critical repair items and risk their theft or do I bring them in when I bug out? 

In a retreat setting and in a defensive situation, be wary to not be too reliant on technology to survive.  When planning defenses and security, take technology out of the equation and see how your plans may change.  Technology should enhance your defenses, not replace them.

Overall, I’ve thrown out some questions everyone should be asking themselves when it comes to retreats and retreat security.  Having a well stocked and fortified retreat is the warm safety blanket of most preparedness minded individuals.  It’s a bedrock principle of the survivalist movement and something we all hope to have one day.  But just like our technology and our weapons, a retreat is not without limitations.  But in asking yourself some of the questions I’ve posed here today, you can help limit the problems that might arise.

Letter Re: Too Late for Precious Metals Investing?

Mr. Rawles:
Is it too late to invest in precious metals? Do you still recommend Northwest Territorial Mint? In Christ, – Karen F.

JWR Replies: No, it is not too late to invest, but you should watch the market carefully and buy during price dips.

Yes, Northwest Territorial Mint is trustworthy.  But I’ve heard that they can develop a backlog of several weeks when the precious metals market is in a particularly frantic period.  Summers are typically slow for the precious metals market, so it is a good time to buy, both in terms of price and no worries about lengthy waits for delivery.

As I’ve stated many time in the past five years, I recommend silver rather than gold for all but the most wealthy investors. (Portability of their holdings might be an issue, since silver is roughly 25 times as heavy and bulky–per dollar invested–than gold.)

Three Letters Re: On Surviving Hot Climates and Relocation

James:
This is in response to Deep South Charlie’s comments about the heat in the South. I live in the Deep South, and yes, it is hot, but there are ways to cope. It’s been over 100° F. every day for over a month now, and there has been no rain until recently. But I am not going anywhere. This is my home, and I love it. I believe that the benefits of living in the South far outweigh the drawbacks.

First off, there are ways to deal with the heat. People have done it for thousands of years. In the absence of air-conditioning, your body will adjust to the heat. It’s the in-and-out-of-the-cold that messes with your body’s temperature. Drinking lots of water is essential and it also help to use watered down lemon juice as an energy drink. It is very important to stay in shape and exercise a lot. Working in the heat helps with that. I have found that doing some basic Yoga exercises also help, though being a Christian, I just call them exercises, since I believe that God created those exercises for me to use to stay healthy. It carries oxygen to my joints and muscles, which increases my energy and endurance. And, when working in the heat, you learn to know when to stop. The old timers used to use the hot afternoons to either take a nap or a swim in the creek. The Mexicans call it a Siesta. It is helpful to keep your head covered in the heat, to keep the sun from beating down on you. I use an old fashioned light-weight cotton bonnet. My husband uses a baseball cap, but a lot of guys use a cowboy hat. I wear long-sleeved light-weight cotton shirts and skirts.

Down here, we endure the heat, but are petrified of the cold (really!). When it gets down to 40° F., nobody goes outside. Thankfully, winter is only about a month long. Up North, the summers are milder, but the winters are brutal. We have enough wood fall naturally from trees (branches, etc), to keep us warm in our short winter, if we were heating with wood, which we will if need be. Up North, I guess that the majority of the population isn’t prepared for hard times or natural disasters. Down here, since we live in a perpetually economically depressed area and in a hurricane zone, most people live prepared. We don’t worry about it, since it’s how we live. Us country folk know how to deal with it. We depend on each other and work together. Our family wasn’t “preppers” when Katrina came through, but we hooked up the generator, opened some jars of food and went right on like usual. Here, the lights go out every couple of days, so our oil lamps stay handy.
Crops sometimes don’t make it. That’s why, when I am saving my seed, I save much more than I would ever need for the next 2 or more years. I never know when a crop won’t make it. Of course, here, we have three growing seasons: two long summer seasons and one cold season (for greens and strawberries). Whatever area you are living in, you have to learn what will grow there. Corn has to be started early here, and if it doesn’t make it, you have to wait until next year. But beans, peas, okra, tomatoes, and peppers, will all grow whenever. If one crop dies, you replant with some of your spare seeds. Always plan for some crop to fail, because they will. Always preserve way more than you need for at least 2 years. I have found that mulching is extremely beneficial for small crops, like okra, peppers and tomatoes. It prevents erosion and evaporation; it also provides a home for beneficial bugs like ground spiders. It is always helpful to grow vegetables and fruits that do well in your area. My okra, for example, is loving this heat.

Since most people in this area plant a massive garden, there is always extra food to give away. It is very important to share whatever excess you have. People will share with you, so it’s really good to throw back into the pot. People start to notice if someone is a hoarder that doesn’t share anything, but takes from the pot.
It is also a good idea to plant some bushes and trees and vines that are a more permanent food growing source. Our apple and pear trees are producing tons of fruit, and our blueberry bushes are usually loaded. Grapes love the hot, dry weather, since they hate having “wet feet”.

It also helps to be very observant of what naturally grows in your area. Observe the animals, and how they cope with the heat. Observe the bugs, how they interact, and how nature keeps in balance the good bugs and the bad. Observe the weeds. Learn which weeds are edible, and how to use them. The basic purpose of weeds is provide a ground cover to prevent the sun from leeching out the nutrients in the soil.  Here in the South, we are abundantly blessed with bugs and weeds. Some year, weeds may be the only thing we can grow, so we may need them. At least here, I have observed that the natural plants often have the nutrients we need to endure the weather conditions. Example: We have a weed here called a “Mock Orange”. It grows prolifically (one of the weeds we are “abundantly blessed with”). It has big long spurs that will poke out your eye if you aren’t careful. These mock oranges are edible, and I will use them if I need to. For now, we try to not let them spread, since they are such a nuisance.

I can’t tell you about how to live up North. I have never done it and do not want to try. I can’t imagine how you Yankees ever get it all done in such a short growing season. I love being able to take all summer to get my garden planted if need be. If it doesn’t get planted one day, I’ll work on it the next. There’s plenty of time.
So anyway, Mr. Charlie, I love living in the South. I love the things I can grow. It just takes some patience, but the heat is teaching me that. – Anita R.

 

Jim,
As an old Boy Scout I appreciate you admonishment to be prepared.  Too many folks forget that they are terribly independent on others and fail to care for their own needs. I like the gents comments on the penny wall as it would also make a great thermal mass.    

FYI, our current temp is 103 degrees F with about 5% humidity.  Its 1450 local time.  Bare ground is about 140 F.  

Anyway, there was an article posted about acclimatizing to southern heat, which is more oppressing than anything in the deserts or dryer parts of the US. To lessen the heat issue in the dryer US a technique to consider is “ night radiant cooling .”   It is generally explained at the Cedar Mountain Solar site and at Wikipedia. The concept may be useful to folks designing retreats or homes.  The folks responsible for this site have actually done practical research on the topic.  

Perhaps the aforementioned links may help some folks.   Thanks for the blog!   J. in Carlsbad, NM

 

Greetings and Thanks, Mr. Rawles,
Reading Deep South Charlie ‘s letter brought back memories of the stifling heat that Hurricane Katrina Survivors experienced after the storm passed. In our area the electricity went out several minutes into the storm, and remained down for 2 weeks. This was actually a short time compared to what people were saying was going to happen. Rumors had it that we would not have electricity for several months. My husband and I live in an old, farm house in a rural part of Mississippi that has plenty of windows, but they are not all screened, nor do all of them open. Before the storm, I had purchased some sliding window screens that adjust to fit different size window widths, and in the Spring and Fall, I would use them in the windows to open up the house. I love the feel of a cool breeze, especially at night. These turned out to be very handy to have after the storm. Although, there wasn’t much of a breeze, it was better than having the windows shut. After the storm passed, it left behind a strange vacuum – no birds, no breeze. But the stifling, humid, heat remained constant. My brother (who had evacuated from Louisiana) and I had to make do.

I had a screen door on the front of the house, but no screen door for the back, as it is an odd size door, and would have to be custom made (expensive). Luckily, I had some mosquito netting that I was able to  drape over a dowel, securing with safety pins, and hung over the door. Other folks in the area were smart enough to have generators, and were able to run fans, and small air conditioners. In order to sleep at night, I would fill sandwich size plastic bags, and my “hot”water bottle with ice, and place them next to me in order to get cool enough to sleep. This “luxury” was only possible because the military dispensed bags of ice each day at different locations throughout the storm’s path. My brother and I would leave every morning, after basic chores were done, (and there were many extra) to go and get a bag or 2 of ice. We would come straight home with it and repack the ice chest that I had in my bath tub. Each time I drained the ice chest, I kept the water, because we had no electricity to run our water pump, and at that time, city water was not available.  Before the storm, I had filled (3) 50 gallon plastic barrels (and several other plastic tubs) with water. I had placed the barrels all near a shed in our pasture, thinking that they would be easy to get to there. Well, luck would have it that a huge pecan tree fell on top of the barrels, smashing one and making the other two impossible to reach. So, the water I had stored was of no use. Fortunately, I had an extra barrel and a kind neighbor with a generator who allowed me to fill it twice, and that’s how I was able to water my three horses.  Anyway, because of the ice that the military provided, and the kindness of my neighbor, we were able to survive. Looking back, I guess I should have filled more barrels, and not have stored them all in the same spot, which brings to mind our dilemma…

After Hurricane Katrina (in 2005), there were predictions that we could expect hurricanes of this magnitude for the next 10 years due to El Niña. Determined not to go through any more hurricanes that Winter, we purchased 50 acres in Colorado between Canon City and Westcliffe. We chose this particular property because it had a lot of usable land, with many areas of grassy meadows for our horses to graze. It was also fairly remote, but not so remote that we couldn’t be part of a community, or be trapped indefinitely with no way out, should heavy snows come. There is an old, hand – hewn log cabin there that might be able to be restored to a livable condition. Electricity is also at the property, which is a plus. To make a long story short, in the end, we chickened out of moving there because of the costs to build a small house, and barn for our horses. We also didn’t have four wheel drive vehicles which are required for the terrain. Even though we changed our minds about moving, we kept the property. We eventually decided to make it our summer retreat.

In 2008, we had a water well drilled, and it turned out to be a financial hardship for us. The first well caved in, and a second well was drilled nearby that required an all steel casing, which ended up costing twice as much as the original quoted price. We had to take out a second mortgage on our home to cover the extra costs. We recently found out that this may have been a scam that a particular drilling company (now going bankrupt) was practicing. We will never know, and at this point, we can only hope that we have a good well.

Also, in 2008, after the economy tanked, and I found SurvivalBlog, my husband (begrudgingly, at first) and I began making some changes in preparation for hard times. I have put in various fruit trees and berry bushes, and recently some raised beds. We compost all of our kitchen scraps, old hay, and horse manure. We have some long term food storage items (beans, rice, red and white winter wheat), and  many canned goods. I am building a gardening and survival library, and have purchased several good gardening tools. We also bought a Mossberg shotgun and a Ruger .22 handgun (although I don’t know much about shooting them). Financially, we are paying off some credit card debt, and we purchased some junk silver for bartering. Compared with many, we are just getting started with prepping.

In any case, we live with an uneasy feeling that maybe we should not stay here in southern Mississippi. As Deep South Charlie described, the heat and humidity in this area may just be unbearable without air conditioning (should the grid go down). Mississippi was not on your list of chosen states to pick for retreats (although Louisiana was, and I have often wondered about that). Besides the brutal heat and humidity, we also have the yearly anxiety of the hurricane season, and who knows what the end results of the gulf oil spill will be. I also don’t know what to think about moving to our property in Eastern Colorado, as it is not included in the Redoubt states (but almost was). My husband and I are in our 50s. My husband’s mother, who lives in a small cottage next door to us is in her 80s. Would it be wise to move and start over, or just stay put? Should we decide to move to one of the Redoubt states, could we even sell our property here, or the one in Colorado, or is it just a bit too late?

Thanks so much for providing such a wealth of knowledge, and your great willingness to share. – S. in Mississippi

JWR Replies: I believe that our economy is in a “slow slide”, and that we will experience several years of continued economic deterioration before it becomes impossible to relocate. In the depths of the coming Depression, prices will be galloping and the big cities will become incredibly inimical environments. My advice is to kneel down for some concerted prayer. If you then feel convicted to move to one of the American Redoubt states, then don’t hesitate. Find a church home, find work, and MOVE! There may not be a “next summer” window of opportunity.

Economics and Investing:

Several readers sent this piece, highlighted at The Drudge Report: China ratings house says US defaulting: report. “In our opinion, the United States has already been defaulting”.

It is beginning, folks: German Rating Agency Feri Downgrades US Government Bonds: AAA to AA!

George C. suggested this commentary from Doug Casey: Our Economic Future: From Best to Worst Case

Sterling and Euro Fall on Economic Concerns – Gold Rises to Record £950.81 British Pounds an Ounce

B.B. sent this: US Is Nearing Even Worse Financial Crisis: Jim Rogers

Some other recent quotes from Jim Rogers: “Bernanke Is A Disaster” Who Will “Bring QE Back”

Home-Price Drop of 25% Wouldn’t Shock Shiller. (Thanks to Steven M. for the link.)

Items from The Economatrix:

Rising Food And Oil Prices Are Biggest Threat To Recovery, Says World Bank

Celente: Gold Standard Won’t Save US Economy

Silver Shield: Don’t Hold Your Breath

Odds ‘n Sods:

Some Trivia: “The longest recorded unassisted flight by a chicken was 301-1/2 feet.” This leads me to ask: How would one “assist”? Perhaps JATO?

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More than a dozen readers have sent me this link: China Wants to Construct a 50 Square Mile Self-Sustaining City South of Boise, Idaho. Although the piece is a bit over-blown, the loss of our sovereignty is nonetheless a scary prospect.

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Facebook Knows Your Face: Are Users Too Blasé About New Facial Recognition Feature?

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The Radio Free Redoubt podcasts are continuing, on Sundays. The first broadcast has been archived, and is now available for download. As I mentioned before, this is not my own podcast (so the views expressed do not necessarily reflect my own), but the folks who produce it are stable and well-intentioned. The podcast should provide a great forum for folks who already live in the American Redoubt, and for those that plan to relocate there.

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Scientists: ‘Super’ Wheat To Boost Food Security. (Thanks to K.A.F. for the link.)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“The counsel of the LORD standeth for ever, the thoughts of his heart to all generations.

Blessed [is] the nation whose God [is] the LORD; [and] the people [whom] he hath chosen for his own inheritance.” – Psalm 33:11-12 (KJV)

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 35 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and B.) Two cases of Alpine Aire freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $400 value.) C.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), D.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo , and E.) An M17 medical kit from JRH Enterprises (a $179.95 value).

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, C.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and D.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.) , and B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value.

Round 35 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Beyond Outdoor Survival, by Sarah M.

As a homeschooler, I enjoy reading books about survival techniques. I have to admit that I have never been in trapped in the jungle, stuck on Mount Everest, or lost in the desert (sometimes we homeschoolers do tend to get a little rambunctious and we wish we could just get lost for one day, just to test our knowledge). Nevertheless, I do know of many stories I could tell. But, that’s not why I am writing. I am writing to help homeschoolers (or other people who have some time on their hands) realize that they have an opportunity to prepare themselves. Whether you are planning to hike in the jungle, climb Everest, take a walk in the desert, or even just go on a camp out, you need to be prepared for anything that can happen. I have picked up some practical techniques from reading, talking to friends, and experimenting. Preparation is the key to just about every survival story, so I hope as you read this essay, you will find a few practical things that you can use to prepare yourself and others for whatever may happen.

First let’s talk about the survival kit. It is possible to survive without one, but the methods you must use require a lot of practice. So, save yourself some stress and be prepared! A survival kit can be purchased from various outdoor stores, or you can make one on your own. A basic survival kit should contain: a knife (some knife’s actually have a survival kit inside the sheath or handle of the knife), flint/steel or some sort of fire starter (this is very important), compass, signal mirror, water purification tablets, fishhooks and line, snare wire, and a large plastic bag. There are also many other items that could be added, but these could fit in a very small container. If you decide to buy a bag or something to put all your gear in, be sure to get something that attaches to you. For instance, you might be hiking a steep pass and all of a sudden start to lose your footing and then you fall down a mountain and you are stuck somewhere. Now you need your survival gear, but if it wasn’t attached to you, you probably lost it in the fall. It is also important if you are traveling in a group that everyone in the group has their own personal kit. You never know when you will get separated. Good shoes and clothing are also of the utmost importance, so be sure when you go on that cam pout, or when you go on that hike, think before you set out. This is all part of good preparation!

You should also have a basic home survival kit, in case of a natural disaster, or survival situation. Make sure you have enough water on hand for every person in your house. It is also a good idea to keep some Meals Ready to Eat (MREs) in your home.

Also, make sure that in your home you have some type of fire starter (tinder) ready to be used. It is also very important to keep some tinder with you if you go on a hike, or any kind of adventurous outing. You never know when you may need to start a fire quickly, and it could be a life or death matter! My family has a car survival kit, carried mainly in the winter, but it’s not a bad idea to keep one in there all year round. One of the main things we keep in there is a candle with some matches. Believe it or not, that flame from that candle will keep you, and the people in your car warm!

Before I leave the subject of a survival kit, I want to mention two very important medical books that everyone should have. I personally have read both of these books and they are outstanding! The first is Mosby’s Outdoor Emergency Medical Guide by David Manhoff. My copy is spiral bound and has tabs on the ends of the pages to give it a flip chart approach. It is very fast to look up things. It was very profitable when I had to use it for a slight emergency situation! The other book is called Wilderness Medicine, Beyond First Aid by William W. Forgey, MD. This book is amazing! It gives you everything you need to know! It even shows you how to do stitches. This book is a must in every homeschooler’s survival kit. It will allow you to be calm and have confidence in case of an emergency.

Next, let’s talk about water and food. You can live without food for three weeks, but water is more important since you can only live three days without it. Good preparation would be to carry purification tablets with you just in case the need would arise. It is better to not drink water than to drink contaminated water. So, if you did not bring purification tablets with you, you should look for streams or rivers with no dead animals upstream. Look for rivers with lots of rocks on the bottom. Also, always remember that you can always boil water that is questionable, to kill microbes.

Another last ditch method of getting water is making a solar still. First, pick a spot where there is a lot of sun, but where the soil is somewhat damp. Then dig a hole that is about 2 feet deep and 3 feet wide. You can put non-poisonous plants or pour contaminated water around the edges of your hole. Then put a cup, or something to catch the water, in the middle of the hole, but don’t let any un-purified substances get in the cup. Then lastly, cover your hole with a plastic sheet, and put rocks on the ends to keep it from blowing away. Also put a slightly weighted object in the center of the hole (directly above your cup) so there is a slight downward indent in the center of the plastic sheet. After a few hours, you will have some water.

Yet another last ditch method is this: take a plastic trash bag (or any sort of a large bag) and tie it onto a tree branch, with some of the nonpoisonous vegetation inside it. Make sure it is in full sunlight. After a couple of hours you will start to see some water condensing. I found both of these ideas in Les Stroud’s book, titled Survive! which is another good book for homeschoolers to read to help prepare themselves.

Dew and rain water are also generally fine, but rivers will undoubtedly lead to civilization, so, if you find yourself lost, go downhill until you find a river then follow it till you reach civilization.

As for food, MREs are the wisest means of food preparation. It is also wise to bring some vitamins with you if you are planning to trek, or go somewhere where there is a bigger possibility that something could happen. You could also bring energy bars along with you on your hike or whatever. If you do find yourself lost, set some small traps before you go to bed, and also set some improvised fishing poles or logs with hooks hanging down from them into a river. If you think you have food poisoning, you can eat a little bit of charcoal from your campfire and it should help you vomit the poison up. But, as I have already mentioned, you should always have a good supply of MREs with you.

Next, I am going to give you a tip for predicting weather and navigation that you should practice at home to prepare yourself. Since weather plays a factor in everything, here’s one of my favorite tips for predicting weather (and the one that I have found to be most helpful): if you stand with your back to the wind and the high clouds are coming from your right, that means that the weather is likely to get better. If the high clouds are coming from the left, that means that the weather is likely to get worse. If you decide to use this rule in the southern hemisphere then you need to reverse it. It is best to practice this at home, or in a place that you know what the weather is supposed to be. Get comfortable using this you never know when you may have to use it.

Navigation is also another important factor in your fight for survival. You should always be prepared with a compass, but if you do not have one, you can use your watch. This is another one of my favorite tips, but you should practice this. Point the small hour hand toward the sun, and then make an imaginary line between the hour hand and the twelve, this is now your south / north line.

Now, let’s leave these specific things and talk about our fourth key to preparation which is shelter. Let’s say you get lost in the mountains, one of the first things you should do is descend to a valley and pick a good location for a shelter. Caves make a wonderful short-term shelter, while lean-tos or A-frames make a great long term shelter. Good preparation would be to practice building these types of shelters in your back yard before your life depends on it!  Find a survival book and look at pictures and make a lean-to or a-frame. It’s not as hard as it looks!

Next, let’s say that you are camping and you and your buddies want to go on a real hike, and you know that there is a river that you will need to cross. Preparation would be this: put everything that you will carry in your backpack in a plastic bag before you put it in your back pack. This way if you fall in when you are trying to cross the river, all your stuff won’t get wet or ruined! It is also wise when crossing a river to get a long, sturdy stick, to use while crossing. This will give you the tri-pod approach, and it will give you a little more sturdy footing. Also, keep your shoes on while you cross. You don’t want to step on a sharp object.

I have just given you a few tips for preparation that every homeschooler should be familiar with. Let me give you a practical illustration that might help to clarify what I mean by preparation. My family and I were on vacation in North Carolina, and we decided to hike part of Table Rock. The probability that something was going to happen was very, very slim. I knew this but still, before I went I packed my survival kit (which, by the way, goes around my waist, so it attaches to me) and a little bit of water and a little bit of food. I also packed a few medical supplies since I have a bunch of younger siblings and if anything were to happen, I knew probably one of them would get hurt. Well, nothing happened, but, I still was prepared.

Practical Preparation is the key to surviving. Exercising and staying fit is also vital to winning the survival battle. Preparation is a very good habit to get into, and homeschoolers- you can do this!  If you don’t take time to prepare yourself, when disaster strikes you will wish you had! Learning to prepare as a young person will give you confidence that if anything happens, whether you get lost, separated from your trekking group, or a natural disaster strikes, you will be able to keep your head, not panic, and get out of that predicament alive!

Letter Re: Gardening in Plain Sight

Dear JWR:
A few years ago I started food plots for wild game on my ranch.   Since then, I have noticed that the game have returned in greater numbers. The reason is the variety of plants from the seeds sown. One of the plants in this mix is the turnip.  The seed mix allows there to be food from spring to winter, with the turnips being the last food consumed. I find deer, elk and bears eating them first thing in the spring. 

I got an idea from this last year. If turnips grow this well in the wild with no care, and humans consume turnips, what other food would grow with no care and would be a real resource for human consumption? So last spring I planted my regular food plot mix that you can buy at any sporting goods store.  I planted the seeds along the roads on National Forest land on the way to my ranch at three different elevations and added a new plant, one I have never planted before; the lowly potato. I planted them along forest service roads and I was amazed at the results. My food plots at all elevations, (3,300 ft, 5,000 ft, and 6,800 ft) all produced more potatoes and turnips than my family or five families could eat in a year. Also, the potato is not as attractive to bears and wildlife.  They were virtually untouched.  The turnips, on the other hand, were consumed by deer, elk, and bears, so there was some competition for some of the resources planted. This spring I have gone to the store and found some hearty carrot seed, and I am adding this to my private garden along forest service roads.  I am hoping to get a positive result. 

Another discovery I found amazing is that not one human intruder had found, disturbed, or messed with these any of these food plots. They are in plain sight, just not planted in rows, but planted sporadically along the road, creek, or drainage. My only explanation is that the plant’s nutritional value is under ground, and how many people know what the tops of a potato plant looks like? 

My goal this year is to see how dry land wheat grows wild at these different elevations. I know it grows well at 6,800 ft, because it is a part of the food plot on my ranch.  This year I have planted a lot of it to see how much could be harvested if one wanted to in the fall, with no human care until harvest time. 

The reason for this experiment is simple. How much food can you grow in the wild, with no care, how much work is involved, and can you produce enough for a family of four for an entire year?   And can you do this in plain sight and get away with it undisturbed? The answer is yes, with no real effort. 

This is a simple plan of insurance in addition to your TEOTWAWKI preps, with no cost but seed, and no labor except planting and harvesting, and nobody knows where your food plots are, except you! Simple and basic.  Of course, this will only work in areas were you can “dry farm” like in portions of the American Redoubt.  – M.O.

JWR Replies: I encourage readers to check into the legalities before planting any crops on public land. You wouldn’t want to create a “weed” nightmare that would displace native species!

Two Letters Re: Home Security, Inflation Hedge, and Liquidity, All in One

JWR,  
I have read with great interest articles posted on your blog.  Scott’s article was a good read but left me scratching my head.  I am no math whiz but dropping an extra two tons onto a residential second floor seems a little unsafe.  I know Scott did not mention the overall room dimensions or joist sizing, or extra precautions he took, but overall I thought a residential floor is generally rated to a safe load of 40 pounds per square foot.  For a 10’x12′ room that would be 4,800 pounds. A box of pennies is 3.25 inches tall, 4 inches wide, and 8.5 inches long.  To get a 10 foot span, 4 feet tall would require 210 boxes (14 boxes long and 15 boxes high).  At 20 pounds a box, that is 4,200 pounds.  I will assume some other things go into the room like a bed, dresser, clothes, not to mention Scott.  The remaining 600 pounds of safe live load can be eaten up fairly quickly and I would suspect it to be much greater than 600.  All this and the pennies are only on the short wall.  When he rounds the bend for the 12 footer he will be adding an additional 5,100 pounds.  At that point, not only will the safe load be exceeded, but the theoretical load might be as well.  Scott’s second floor could end up on the first floor. 

Another consideration is “shear” because all of the weight is being put along the wall edges.  All in all, I would suggest [consulting a structural engineer and] a little beef-up to the structure before adding all that weight to a room.  Scott seems to be quite advanced at keeping safe so I am sure he will dot his “i”s and cross his “t”s before loading up.  I hope his doesn’t have to lug all those pennies back downstairs.   – G.L. in D.C. 

Jim,
In reference to the recent piece about multiple uses of pennies versus nickels, I just wanted to add one more reason to invest in pre-1981 [1 cent piece] pennies versus [5 cent piece] nickels which you could use as academic research for your books: shaped charge backings. Ideally, the nickel is a better investment, but a diversification between the two would provide materials that may be needed and in short supply. – Skip R.

JWR Replies: The density of copper and nickel are very close to each other. (Copper is .323 pounds per cubic inch, while nickel is .309)  So they would have essentially comparable utility in making shaped charge backings. Copper only has a slight advantage.

It is more important note that the melting point of copper is 1,981° (Fahrenheit) and nickel is 2,646°. So I can see the utility of keeping plenty of older pennies around, for lost-wax casting.  But my advice on that use is of course hypothetical, since it is currently illegal to melt pennies and nickels for profit in the U.S., and illegal to export them in bulk. I expect that this law will be repealed, once nickels of a new composition (probably stainless steel) reach wide circulation.

Gresham’s Law dictates that the new (debased) coins will drive the old (genuine) coins out of circulation. I predict that once the base metal value of a current composition nickel hits twice it face value (“2X face”), they will disappear from circulation within a year. Presently, I estimate less than 1/10th of 1% of the U.S. population is actively saving nickels. But just wait until 20% of the population does so. Poof! They will be gone, seemingly overnight.

Economics and Investing:

SurvivalBlog’s Editor at Large, Michael Z. Williamson sent this: A Few Charts That Show Why Quantitative Easing Was A Miserable Failure

That dreaded “D.” word is spoken again: Bullard sees debt default as big global risk. (Thanks to B.B. for the link.)

A bit late to jumping on the band wagon: Traders Are Dumping Stocks and Buying Gold and Silver

Reader Pierre M. suggested this: President Obama’s phony accounting on the auto industry bailout

Bill J. sent this: Senators seek crackdown on “Bitcoin” currency. (JWR’s Comment: I’m not surprised to see Senator Schumer’s name mentioned…)

Items from The Economatrix:

Low Yields On Treasury Debt No Guarantee That Fiscal Crisis Won’t Hit US

Oil Rises As OPEC Maintains Production Level

Stocks Fall As Fed Delivers Mixed Economic Outlook

Fed Survey:  Economy Falters in Several US Regions