The Business of Survival: A Look at Growing Trends and 2012, by Scott D.

Introduction

This is going to be a landmark year for survivalism. There are a myriad of important societal, political and economic events on the radar that are fueling an expansion of interest in ‘being prepared’. Worldwide economic uncertainty, global political tension with Iran, an election year in the United States, and the approaching social phenomenon associated with December 21st, 2012 all loom. A decade’s worth of catastrophic events including terrorism, large-scale weather disasters and public shootings have only served to bring public uneasiness to a boil. More people are reacting, as sales of food stocks, firearms, and outdoor survival gear have all seen significant recent increases. These factors are combining to create a mainstream adoption of the survival mindset, and have key implications for those of us preparing for the worst. The business of survival is booming. This article seeks to break down and analyze the factors driving this expansion and examine the effects it will have on Survivalists in 2012.

My journey into becoming a Survivalist is still only beginning. It started with my growing concern for self-defense and a desire to protect people I care about. A friend called me one summer afternoon from her car to tell me that she thought she heard someone in the next room as she was entering her house. Her roommates were gone for the summer, so she thought someone might have broken in. As a headstrong and naïve college student, I didn’t hesitate. I went to investigate. It wasn’t until I approached the back door to the house that I realized how totally unprepared to deal with a possible threat I was. I wanted to protect my friend, but found myself unable to do so. Foolishly, I went inside unprepared anyway. I found nothing out of the ordinary, but from that moment on I decided to take charge of my own well being to protect the people who depended on me. Two months from that day I had bought my first firearm and went on to obtain my CCW permit.

But it wasn’t until quite recently that a full understanding of the survival mindset took root in my head –being able to defend others or myself with lethal force was really just the beginning. For months after my college graduation I couldn’t shake the feeling that the lifestyle I had enjoyed would not continue into the future. Part of this was based on a study I had done in school on the effects of unsustainable energy consumption. This feeling didn’t make me afraid of my future, but instilled an understanding that I needed to not become too reliant on the conveniences and pleasures I had enjoyed in my life thus far.

It has always been my nature to thoroughly research anything I associate myself with, or invest my money into. I turned this obsessive tendency into a career last year and now spend my days researching markets and industries while advising on trends to help people make more informed business decisions. The following outlines my findings on trends in what I call the growing “business of survival,” and how the compounding effect of unique societal and political circumstances occurring this year will affect those of us who have already taken steps to prepare for SHTF or TEOTWAWKI situations. Those who may be just beginning their journey into the Survivalist mindset will be affected as well. It is important to understand not just the survival market, but also the factors shaping it, in order to better prepare ourselves for the future. After all, as Thomas Fuller says, “Zeal without knowledge is fire without light.”

The Growing Popularity of the ‘Survival Mindset’

Survivalists existed in 21st century America before 9/11, but many agree that it was this catastrophic event that began driving the prepared mindset into the everyday consumer. The idea that disaster can strike at any time and in unforeseen ways has caused many Americans to analyze how they would react to a similar situation. Combine the threat for terrorist attacks with the potential for mass weather-related destruction seen in recent years, and the result is a society becoming increasingly aware of the need to be prepared for the worst at any given time. Previously reserved for only a small percentage of veterans, outdoorsmen, and the especially wary, Survivalist ideals have now infiltrated the minds of every day citizens.

Retailers reported a spike in outdoor and camping related gear sales for the past few years, which has typically been used as a measuring stick for the state of survivalism. Estimates by the National Sporting Goods Association (NSGA) in 2010 showed significant jumps in the sales of tents and packs, as well as a 22 percent increase in overall dollar sales of online outdoor and camping equipment retailers.

Expedition outfitters like Uncle Sam’s Safari Outfitters in Webster Groves, Missouri reported having to ramp up MRE stocks to meet demand in November 2011. These indicators not only speak to a continued climb in the number of people adopting some level of preparedness, but also lend the idea that Survivalists are heavily relying on online retailers to acquire supplies.

Online retailers will likely see increased orders for specialty supplies well into the future, while physical retail locations will always get the influx of local demand for “essentials” items (such as batteries, generators, water, etc.) from people in their area. The idea of stockpiling, however, has allowed online retailers to increase profits in areas traditionally reserved for the local big box store.

Perhaps the most telling indication of the expansion of the survival mindset is the record-breaking number of firearms being processed under the National Firearms Act (NFA) in 2011. Surpassing the previous high of 981,303 in 2008, the NFA processed a staggering 992,975 firearms in fiscal year 2011. That’s up 20 percent from 2010.

Pre-purchase firearm background checks also reached an all-time high according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation with around 16.5 million in 2011 (up 15 percent from 2010). Kentucky, Texas, Utah and California topped the list for the states with the highest number of checks. While there is no accurate method for determining a definite number of firearms sold in the country each year, these figures do point to a definite increase in firearm-related economic activity. Firearms are consistently one of the top recommended survival necessity items from any source, and Americans are responding.

Sturm, Ruger & Co (otherwise known simply as Ruger) have recently indicated they have had to temporarily stop taking production orders due to overwhelming demand, with the hopes to resume normal acceptance of orders in May of 2012. The announcement, made on March 22nd, 2012, saw the company’s public shares jump an incredible 12 percent. Smith & Wesson Holdings Company, one of Ruger’s main competitors, saw similar skyrocketing share prices.

Firearms have proven many times they are recession-proof. Since 2008, the firearm industry has grown almost constantly. So far this year, the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) says that over 920,000 background checks were made in the month of January. That’s over a 17 percent increase over January 2011.

Driving Factors For Mainstream Adoption

To some, the reasons for the increase demand for survival items may be obvious. There have been numerous historical events and political issues over the past decade that have caught media attention, and have some civilians doubting the government’s ability to protect them or come to their aid in a disaster.

Hurricane Katrina sparked a remarkable amount of controversy because of the amount of time it took emergency services to provide relief for people stranded in the aftermath. The tragic events of 9/11 reminded the nation that danger can strike at any time. Extended riots in the UK in 2011 cause concern about the fragility of society in tumultuous times. Occupy Wall Street movements have continued for months and display public outcry and distrust of big government. Other weather disasters such as the tsunami in Japan in March 2011 and violent tornado outbreaks in the Midwest last year also have people concerned for their safety within their own homes. The media also continues to cover high-profile public shootings that have occurred in the last few years including Virginia Tech, Fort Hood, and terrorist-like gun rampages in Norway.

All of these examples have contributed to the growing realization of the need to prepare in order survive or help others when the unthinkable happens. This awareness has driven an expanding economic opportunity to capitalize on growing demand for survival items.

The Effect of December 21st, 2012

The social phenomenon regarding numerous “End of The World” claims on or around December 21st, 2012 (henceforth referred to simply as “2012”) continues to be a driving factor behind the increase in survival awareness. Mainstream media will continue to hype the event in coming months, creating heightened anxiety, similar to the Y2K phenomenon observed over a decade ago.

For many, 2012 shares either mythological or religious ties, which may have an effect on the perception and overall paranoia generated as the date grows nearer. Regardless whether a catastrophic event occurs, paranoia will almost surely heighten with the other global happenings occurring at the end of 2012. With a presidential election taking place just before, the combined effect of political tension, ‘End Of The World’ speculation, and potentially worsening global economic situation, will greatly effect the public mindset and could cause unrest on a serious level. It is not inconceivable that the 2012 phenomenon could become a self-fulfilling prophecy with a major event triggered by pure paranoia.

The effects of this buildup will be especially important to Survivalists. Serious widespread unrest is unlikely to materialize until after the presidential election takes place. It is after this point the building paranoia and potentially worsening global conditions may have a serious effect on the public psyche. Anyone who waits to prepare himself until after the election might be too late, and will be unable to acquire the necessary equipment to ensure safety. A run on essential products may take place. Increased communication among prepared Survivalists to plan for disaster or social unrest will be necessary as the year draws to a close in order to plan for potential relocation and rebuilding of a safe and orderly community.

Prepper/Survivalist Spectrum

The growth factors for Survivalism are creating a divide that is important to recognize. When looking at people associated with the survivalism movement as consumers, there is a clear spectrum developing. On one end, there exists a very large and rapidly growing number of individuals that are simply buying goods for peace of mind. I refer to this group as ‘Preppers.’ Although this term has previously been interchangeable with Survivalists, it is important to recognize the fundamental difference between the two in the context of this analysis.

Those on the Prepper end of this spectrum, as recent economic activity has observed, can be characterized most easily by their tendency to stockpile goods on a relatively small scale. In its simplest form, these are people buying prepackaged survival kits and large quantities of freeze-dried food in case of emergencies. Most of these people do not put a high level of thought into the purchase. While many in this group are content with the purchase of a $90 survival package, some Preppers may spend thousands of dollars on stockpiled goods, ammunition and fuel. This shows a clear understanding of the idea of being prepared, however the rampant accumulation of goods does not always equate to true preparedness.

On the other end of the spectrum are full-blown Survivalists. This group shares many traits with the Prepper in terms of stockpiling goods, but applies an entirely different (and distinguishing) thought to the process that focuses on self-reliance. Survivalists may stockpile not just food and fuel, but also investments for the future such as precious metals, land, or livestock for long-term sustainability. Indeed, the approach of the Survivalist is wholeheartedly different – this group seeks to proactively reshape their every day lives around being able to deal with SHTF events or TEOTWAWKI. This is achieved by learning new skills, creating long-term contingency plans, increasing efforts to maintain privacy and sometimes even relocating to more defensible or private locations, among other things.

It is inevitable that there will be some degree of evolution from the less engaged Preppers turning to true Survivalists in the long term. From a consumer standpoint, the Prepper group is growing rapidly and may be more easily influenced, but potential spending in this group is unpredictable and could range from a one-time $90 purchase of a prepackaged survival kit to thousands of dollars worth of stockpiled food and fuel over the course of several years. Survivalists, while a much smaller group, dedicate large budgets to myriad expenditures including equipment, firearms, training and other investments.

There are numerous implications of ‘prepping’ going mainstream for the Survivalists group. These trends will be important to identify to maintain the highest level of readiness.

Implications

From a market standpoint, there has been a marked degree of saturation of survival retailers affecting everyone from sporting goods stores to firearms retailers. For instance, a local branch of a nationwide firearms retailer in Kentucky is now promoting survival packages that include food for storage, knives, rope and outdoor shelter. This is clearly an attempt to capture the dollar of the newly wide-eyed suburban Prepper, as the items have never been packaged together before.  Other retailers who sell goods in tertiary markets are making similar moves. Costco, the popular bulk discount chain, now offer similar kits.

What does this mean for Survivalists? For one, specific survival kit components may become more and more scarce as demand continues to increase. These will be the most commonly promoted items by major retailers as “essentials.” The most experienced Survivalists will be able to identify low-quality imitation products or marketing ploys for unnecessary items. But items such as flashlights, batteries, camp gear and stockpile food options like MREs may become difficult to come by.

For those dedicated but less experienced Survivalists who may not have yet had the time to develop a full inventory of necessary items, it will now become paramount to identify worthwhile products and avoid the increase in junk items. There are plenty of items appearing on shelves manufactured specifically to make retailers a quick buck. These include cheap items like 6-in-1 survival compasses, cheaply made knives, and low quality shelter. It will be a better investment to avoid pre-packaged survival kits which are more likely to cut corners to bring costs down. Avoid any ‘all-in-one’ survival kits or items. These items are targeted at the mainstream consumer being swept into the craze, and while something is always better than nothing, be smart about what you are purchasing – you will be able to find better quality equipment for less money.

Firearm sales will likely continue to climb this year. Even those who had traditionally shunned firearms may be more inclined to arm themselves for peace of mind in growing social and political turmoil. Ammunition will continue to be key as people stockpile in case of a collapse. Some manufacturers, like Ruger, may raise prices as demand increases. Full-on scarcity is not likely to materialize, but if you are considering a firearm purchase this year, it is recommended to do so sooner rather than later.

More armed citizens traditionally results in a decrease of violent crime, but with growing unease and economic fragility across the globe, it would be wise to exercise more caution in case of civil disruptions.

Conclusion

The overall adoption of the survival mindset has grown by leaps and bounds in recent years, and the general idea of preparedness will continue to trickle down to the everyday consumer. Online and physical retail sites will continue to capitalize on increasing demand. Survivalists should be aware of market trends in order to achieve a maximum level of preparedness.

Society has proven it is willing to pay for peace of mind. This increased adoption will continue to distinguish the differences between a Prepper and a Survivalist. The relationship between groups will continue to evolve as more people become part of the spectrum. 

Sales in outdoor and camping gear will continue on an upward trend through the end of the year. Growth patterns beyond 2012 will depend on any events that may or may not come to pass at years end. Firearm sales, while at a suspected all-time high in 2011, will probably set new records again in 2012. Watch the market for any additional signs of scarcity.

Future Recommendations

As always, a good Survivalist will prepare for the worst but continue to hope for the best. Have confidence that, should SHTF, the likelihood of people in your area having some sort of foundation for survival is increasing every month. Be wary of people and businesses trying to take advantage of good intentions to make a dollar. The landscape of survival is in flux, and where there is money to be made, there is an increased opportunity for corruption and dishonesty.

No information contained in this article is meant to deter the hope of a bright future for this country and its citizens. An inner spirit of quiet determination is strongly suggested in any preparations made specifically for this year. Do not fuel the paranoia. Instead, use this information to guide and educate others in their own preparations. The vast majority of geological or astrological catastrophes predicted for December 21st are completely unfounded, but the possibility of social unrest due to economic and political conditions is a reality that should be addressed.

In the meantime, there is no reason to disrupt daily family life in an attempt to become more prepared. Keep abreast of world news, both political and economical. Dig into the Internet, survival message boards and YouTube to pick up tips, but always absorb information you read from a critical position and use your best judgment. Misinformation is the spark to paranoia. The list of things one can do to prepare for the worst is never ending. As most of us know, it isn’t possible to be truly prepared for everything. In the end, the best advice is to stay vigilant, hopeful, and maintain Faith.

Sources:

ATF Stats on NFA Firearms Processed
FBI 2011 Record Background Checks
NSGA Research Reports
NSGA Report Blog
MarketWatch Firearms Analysis

Letter Re: A Practical Utilitarian’s Take On Firearms and Calibers

Mr. Rawles,
I really enjoyed the SurvivalBlog article by Kyrottimus, titled A Practical Utilitarian’s Take On Firearms and Calibers. I appreciate his expertise and experience.  I commend his list of Must-Haves for the AR-15 or M4gery, and would like to respectively suggest one more item to add to the McFarland 1-piece gas ring, the Bravo Company Gunfighter charging handle, and the Magpul B.A.D. Lever.  The Defender D Ring should be an addition to your AR-15 rifles.  After listening to John Farnham sing the praises of this little device, it should be a serious consideration on a Personal Defense Weapon (PDW).

The Defender D Ring installs around the extractor.  With the high bolt velocity of the AR-15, the extractor can be stressed.  The Defender D ring provides a stronger extractor tension, as well as contributing to the reliability of the extractor, and extending its life.  You can purchase this inexpensive “must-have” at Strike Tactical Solutions. 

Farnham’s perspective is civilian use of the PDW, with an emphasis on function and reliability. As a woman, these considerations are very important factors in defending myself. – Belle Ringer

Letter Re: Key Questions For and About Your Children

James: In regards to M.D.M.’s article, I’d like to add something to his Question #4, There is no reason to smother a baby or toddler to keep them quite as in that M*A*S*H episode mentioned. I learned an old Indian trick years ago, when my kids were young and restless. All a mother needs to do is blow lightly in the child’s face when they start fussing and about to cry. This blowing lightly momentarily takes their breath away, and they stop fussing, and concentrate on breathing, It doesn’t take much blowing lightly in their face, and they soon drift off to sleep. This works good on infants and kids up to about two years old!
 
Nothing is more distracting than being in church and have some mother not knowing what to do to keep her baby from crying, and disturbing everybody around her for several rows, until the only thing she can do is take the baby out of the room. I read about this in some old book on Indian plains tribes, the mothers used to run out into the woods or high brush with their child and hide, when the village came under attack, and this blowing lightly in the child’s face to keep them from fussing or crying saved many lives. So after reading this, I tried it in church when my youngest son was a baby, and started fussing and crying, and it worked wonderfully! Something good to know if you have a baby and don’t want to disturb people in church! – J.M. in Utah

Economics and Investing:

Sean B. spotted this in The LA Times: More municipalities betting on pension bonds to cover obligations. Note that the “pension obligation bonds” that they mention are actually derivatives.

Jim Rogers & Peter Schiff Agree, U.S. Treasury Crisis In 2013
 
Truth About $6 Gas, $200 Oil and the Quest for Energy Independence
 
2012 the year of the short sale – Short sales over 50 percent of all MLS inventory in Southern California.

Items from The Economatrix:

Americans Angry As Gas Nears $4

Durable Goods Orders Hint at Weak First Quarter

Gas Prices Expected To Continuously Increase Through Summer

Gold, For Richer, For Poorer As Crisis Cools

Odds ‘n Sods:

Designer’s sleeping bag coat transforms – and warms – Detroit’s homeless. (Thanks to B.B. for the link.)

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Over at Alt-Market: Cold Weather Bug-Out Survival Lessons

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Insane Michigan government announces plan to destroy ranch livestock based on hair color and arrest hundreds of ranchers as felons

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Reader Jake K. wrote to mention that those who scoff at the risk of high population density should look at these maps: This is the Most Densely Packed City in the US. Get thee to the Redoubt!

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Speaking of population maps, Todd M. sent this link: 2010 Census Urban Area Thematic Maps. Note the scarcity of dark blue for those in the American Redoubt, in this map.

Note from JWR:

Today we present two more entries for Round 39 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), and E.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A FloJak F-50 hand well pump (a $349 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, C.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and D.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 39 ends on March 31st, and the queue is full, but get busy writing and e-mail us your entry for Round 40. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Preparation Could Mean Survival, by D.S.A.

Some people say you can’t prepare for every situation.  I say, you can because every situation has one common element that can and will hurt you outside of the event itself: other people.  Lets face it, if you die in a storm, a nuclear/biological/chemical event, or terror attack, then you are dead.  There is nothing from stopping God’s will. 

You don’t prepare for those events, you prepare for surviving those events.  There are many events, (and not far-fetched crazy extreme events) which people should be prepared to deal with to protect themselves and their families when it’s over and you are alive. Some include:

  1. Storms (Hurricanes/tornados/floods/earthquakes, droughts, Tsunami)
  2. Financial collapse
  3. Biological emergencies (natural or weaponized)
  4. Chemical emergencies (Living near DuPont?)
  5. Nuclear emergencies (Attack/Power grid failure resulting in leak)
  6. Civil unrest (Riots/Revolution/Civil War/Race war/Looting)
  7. Power Grid failure (EMPs/Solar flares/ attack on grid)

The interesting fact is that just one event on the above list, can and will cause another on the list.  If you don’t believe me, look at Hurricane Katrina. Not only did this storm devastate a region, but what else happened? Civil Unrest, chemical emergencies from refineries, Biological emergencies with contaminated water and disease from bodies, and financial collapse of the region and lets not forget the looting and power grid failures. Look at the recent tsunami in Japan.  No one ever dreamed the nuclear reactors would so easily fail, melt down, leak, or kill (wait for it). The Japanese can probably site all the above listed events as a result of an earthquake. There is a common denominator shared by each item on the list that represents the biggest threat to survivors, outside of the event itself: People.

People will react in the most amazing ways after a horrible event.  Events like these bring out the best and worse in people.  This was seen in New Orleans. I was there in the aftermath. I saw the best and worst in mankind – Mostly the worst.  Normal, law-abiding people (well, it is New Orleans), when put in a survival situation, will kill you, if the stress of the event makes them believe they need your stuff to stay alive.

The dichotomy is that people are the biggest threat, but you can’t survive without the cooperation of other people.  You can’t make it through the listed events alone; you have to rely on other people to pool all your resources to survive. Every event on that list will cause people to lose their minds and cause chaos. Give it a couple of days, then the looting, crime and civil unrest explode like a powder keg.  Sure, you can crawl in your bunker, but for how long? You can buy 20 guns, but you can only shoot one at a time. You need to get organized, with a group of trusted friends/family, to provide, protect and plan your hopefully short term situation.  The well-organized, well armed groups will get passed by the marauders for easy pickings down the road.

Just in the last 10 years or so, we have seen some horrible events that touch every item on the list above….9/11, Hurricanes in Florida, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi,, Haiti, Japan’s Tsunami, Worldwide Earthquakes, Eastern Seaboard Power failure shutting down New York, Euro collapsing, Japans Nuclear reactor failures, Iran’s Nuclear prowess, Missing former Soviet nuclear devices, Los Angeles riots, Tornados Midwest rampage, Ohio/MS River flooding, Texas droughts, and I could list a whole page .
Preparing doesn’t sound so crazy now does it? It’s not some right-wing doomsday fantasy, but if it makes you concerned, perhaps it should – No one is saying we should build an underground bunker (although I would love to).  All I am saying is having a plan, with people you trust while pooling resources just may save your life.

So now you realize you aren’t crazy- lets take a look at the basics:

What are the basic needs we will need as human beings?

  1. Water
  2. Food
  3. Shelter
  4. Security

WATER – Take stock if you are staying put or bugging out. You have what is available to you, but I would recommend having 3 sources of water either in my home or bug out location.

  1. Natural water sources (Creeks, rivers, springs that flow year round)
  2. Well water (How is it powered? Electricity/ manual pump/ solar?)
  3. Water storage (Ponds, stock tanks, water catch systems, barrel storage, bathtubs)
  4. City/County (Keep in mind this source is dependent on upkeep by people who will not be showing up to work in our scenarios)

FOOD – I know a lot of people have their 3-day bug out bag with survival food bars handy, but I believe you need to take stock, not only of your pantry, but other potential sources in your locations.

  1. Stored and saved canned goods with shelf life and extended life usage.
  2. Staples (oil, flour, beans, wheat, salt, sugar- Think food grade barrels)
  3. Natural Resources (Fish, wildlife in area for meat, Feeders/traps/snares)
  4. Seed (growing, farming, reproducing your own food – heirloom seeds)
  5. Livestock animals
  6. Food as a trading commodity (honey, spices,  alcohol, Etc)

SHELTER –We have our homes we currently live in whether its an apartment, house etc. Think about if you leave or bug out, it’s important to have shelter not only where you end up, but keep in mind it may take a few days to get there. Do you know anyone between you and your bug out location? Is there someplace safe you can leave a cache?
Some things to think about shelter:

  1. Size, capacity (how many are in your trusted circle? Will everyone fit?)
  2. Power options (propane, electric/generator, wood for warmth)
  3. Portable/semi permanent (shipping container, RV, tents, Trailer)
  4. Underground (storm shelter, root cellar, buried shipping container)
  5. Ability to create lean-to and basic shelters
  6. Alternate locations (when things get too tough, you may need to relocate)
  7. At your bug out location, is there a secure place, if there is a bio event, that someone can be put into quarantine until incubation period is satisfied before joining the rest of the group?

SECURITY – This means a lot of things to a lot of people.  Lets list out a few things that are important keeping in mind safety in numbers- however a smaller group of well prepared and well trained people can be the most important asset of security.

  1. Personnel (large enough to make the average band of marauders move on to easier targets)
  2. Weapons  (pistols, mid range, long range firearms.) One important need for quiet registered suppressed smaller caliber weapons for stealth and hunting.  This will be very important- Texas is mostly flat and sound carries for miles.) It is good to have .22, .223, .40/9mm, 12ga, 30.06/.308, 7.62×39. These are most plentiful and easily found.  Stealth and being quiet is something that not many presently talk about, but will be important.  If someone is looking for food/water etc, man-made noises are a beacon for people to come and find you. At some point, you will want to put your big bang stick away and opt for suppressed/small caliber or conventional bows.
  3. Ammunition: Having similar calibers among your group members makes ammo go further and able to work with more than one weapon. This coordination could be extremely important in long-term situations.
  4. Night Vision (or Thermal but expensive) There are many Gen 1 NV scopes out there that are priced so reasonably that they make it a must.  Those who own the night, control the day.
  5. Dogs (trained ones, not purse dogs)
  6. Fuel (including storage- This will make you mobile while gas is scarce)
  7. Alternate Transportation (ATV, Bicycle, UATV, mopeds) Don’t laugh – You can ride 10-to-20 miles on a bike without being in Olympic shape.  How long does it take to walk 10 miles?  Not so silly now is it?  Do some research on the Japanese in WWII being able to move mass amounts of troops in a short timeframe catching their enemies by surprise.  And bike is quiet…….

Now that we have some of the basics identified, there are other things that could have been listed above that many of us have lying around or have access to its usefulness.  I like to refer to these items as assets.  You should put a checklist together of your assets, keeping in mind, some assets are intangible.  Here is a quick list of both:

ASSETS

Communication. This is number one for a reason- ham radios, CB radios, Walkie-talkies, field phone with wires, and radios. Information equals knowledge, and knowledge is power.

  1. Boats (rafts, canoes, jon-boat, fishing and pontoon, inner tubes/pool toys- sometimes you need to get across a river/creek and need to keep stuff dry and they take up no space at all – deflate and use again later)
  2. Vehicles (some of us have multiple vehicles…or toys, that carbureted vehicle can be more valuable than you know if there is a solar flare or EMP)
  3. Trailers (we have a lot of stuff and people to bug out)
  4. Generators (these need extra fuel so prep accordingly, and don’t forget the oil)
  5. Tools (welder, chain saws, wire cutters, bolt cutters, etc)
  6. Bikes (these don’t need fuel and can get you miles in minutes)
  7. Land/property (even if it is not ideal bug out territory, it could be used as a cache to store items in alternate locale, or a safe place to stop and resupply to your ultimate destination)
  8. Reloader (The ability to load and reload your own ammo is a huge asset)
  9. Medical equip (all inclusive down to the band aids – don’t forget toothaches and tools for extraction if necessary) People never think about dental as part of their first aid kit…until they have a cracked tooth or toothache.
  10. Silent weapons (crossbows, bows, arrows/bolts, snares/traps)
  11. Fishing Poles (self explanatory)
  12. GPS/Maps (You need both because at some point tech will fail, oh yes, learn how to use a compass with that map) You don’t need static electricity with a needle on a pool of water- Bear Grylls is cool to watch, but go buy a handful of cheap compasses and put them in everyone’s bag and teach some online land navigation basics.
  13. Force multipliers (trip wire alerts, motion sensors, noise making material for areas you cant always see) An easy fix, battery operated motion lights.  If you need eyes in a location you can’t see at night – Set these up in those hard to see areas – It’s like having an extra person to alert you. Fishing lines and cans with rocks will make noise when tripped.
  14. Battery charging devices (Commercial, solar,  also think non conventional like a stationary bike with a belt to an alternator to battery to inverter to outlet) Hook it up to a wheat grinder and make some flour.
  15. Alternative energy (like my bike idea above, there are available sources on the market like solar, wind, hydro- research hydro – It only takes 10 foot of head to turn a turbine – I would love to explore this idea with my creek)
  16. Wood (Gotta have heat in winter, and have to cook)
  17. Clothing for all seasons (doesn’t hurt to have chest waders, mosquito netting, and sewing kits for repairs.  Not everything needs to be military or camo )
  18. Hammocks – I’m getting everyone in my family hammocks with a cheap tarp to go over the top.  There is a whole group of campers out there using only hammocks – Very cool, light weight and fit into the 3 day bug out bag nicely.

Now lets look at a list of what I call Intangible Assets.  What knowledge, skills and abilities (KSAs) do we bring to the group that can be passed along or taught?

  1. Training  (Firearms, tactics, military, safety/chemical, survival)
  2. Certifications (CPR/First Aid, EMT, MD, paramedic, dentistry)
  3. Skills (Farming, hydroponics, carpentry, mechanics, cooking, fishing, welding)
  4. Knowledge (Can you fix things? Make things, butcher, chemical knowledge, canning, pickling, reloading, armorer, water purification)
  5. Abilities (climb trees, make candles, negotiate, bow hunt, make a zip line, fish with a net. Think outside the box)

These are just a few things to think about when starting to prep.  Take your own inventory, and then take the next step. This step is just as important as your safety.  Unless you are going to live by yourself in a bunker (Okay, perhaps I have bunker envy)- you need to incorporate your trusted inner circle to share your ideas and make a plan. Choose wisely- I have seen a lot of people utilize their family- Most of the time, that works. But some folks don’t live near their family, or if they do, they don’t always get along with an in-law or each other.  Don’t be that guy that chooses his best friend that doesn’t believe in prepping, and if by chance they do, won’t prepare, wont bring anything to the table and will end up mooching off of your hard work and the others in your group.  Here are some things to keep in mind when you find your bug out group.  Ask the hard questions with your group now.

If you plan on leaving your home to your bug out location, you may be faced with some tough decisions, table these with your group and ask:

  1. How many people are invited to the location?
  2. What is the group going to do when some other “friends” not in the trusted circle show up?
  3. Uninvited family vs. uninvited friends – Is there a difference? Oh yes!
  4. When others show up looking for a handout or help- what are we prepared to do?
  5. In a bio situation (bird flu) how long should you quarantine others before letting them into your location- What if they are sick – What is the group prepared to do? What if they are family?
  6. Leadership roles vs. democracy vs. clans (family leaders)
  7. What are group pooled items vs. individual (mine) items.  What is shared vs. kept?

Meeting with your trusted inner circle (bug out crew) of people now and discussing these items will be crucial down the line.  Lets face it, it’s hard to find couples that all like each other much less entire families. Face the fact and embrace the fact there will be disagreements in advance, No one will ever completely agree on everything- That is reality.  These disagreements may become amplified in a stressful environment, but come to grips with it together and talk about it now. Talk about that family or group that finds you and wants to join your group to bolster their security (who, what when where, why and how- will be the name of that game). I can create an endless number of scenarios for and against accepting – But the group needs to come to an agreement.  What style of leadership are we going to use? Talk about it now.

Have a plan and several routes that everyone knows to get to your bug out location.  This is where communication devices are essential – Know what routes are inaccessible, have your back-up routes from each alternate points of entry (back up routes to your back up routes) Timing will dictate your routes.  Depending on situation and spread of the event, smaller towns that you would normally drive through could be barricaded and controlled by organized militias/groups like you, limiting access. This goes for any area.  Think of your bug out location, you may want to limit the access too, out of fear of travelers/hordes looking to pillage.  Depending on the situation be prepared to negotiate, barter, trade and or shoot your way to your bug out shelter. You may end up using all those methods along the way.

Bug out to a secondary location comes with its own set of pros and cons.  To me, the hardest question is: When is it time to bug out? No one can predict the best time, but I will say before all of the gas is used up. In our area of South Texas, you can hear a V-8 engine a couple miles away.  Remembering that a panicked society wants to take your stuff because they did not prepare and believe they will die without your stuff-What I am trying to say is err on the early side of bugging out.   The Bottom line is that if you wait too long, you will have herds of “zombies” trying to catch, shoot and kill the caravan of people who still have gas and a way out of town. 

At this point, being quiet is the name of the game. Noise attracts attention- Hunting is a good example; an AR-15 is deafening and can be heard 5 miles and more away. If you use it, use it only once. You will have everyone’s attention waiting to vector the second shot and move in that direction. Get skilled with a bow/crossbow or get a suppressed weapon. .22s are relatively quiet and are good small game calibers. Generators are loud and will attract attention. What are some fixes? Underground, ventilated areas/ mufflers? This opens the door to learning to trap, lay snares, or take serious advantage of the hog trap.  Stock up on rat traps and keep them at your bug out base (the snapping closed kind).  Not for rats, but for small game and birds.  These force multipliers will help you catch your needed protein.

As your group comes together, start training together.  You can start out with a  “survivor man” weekend where you can try your wares. Sight in all your weapons, start fires utilizing various methods, cook using only a fire-pit.  Walk your perimeter, know your weak spots, where are you vulnerable?  Where are the best vantage points on the property, escape routes, choke points, fallback areas, and cache spots.  Bring the families out.  Make sure everyone of responsible age knows how to load, fire, unload each weapon system each family owns. Make training weekends fun, but cover the basics and have everyone hone a skill. If they don’t have one, have them choose one, learn it well, and teach the rest of the group. Empower everyone in the group because we all need to not only feel we contribute to the whole, but we actually all really do need to contribute.  Make weekends to learn how to:

  1. Fish
  2. Shoot
  3. Plant/Harvest
  4. Gather
  5. Hunt/trap
  6. Security patrol/force multiplier utilization
  7. Communications
  8. Prepping vehicles/Trailers/ bags with supplies (what should be in them)
  9. Survivor man trips using your 3-day bug out bag. Know what works and what doesn’t.
  10. Make flour from wheat and bread from flour.
  11. Make alcohol – Uses are many, from drinking, fire starting, trading, sanitizing, cleaning wounds, sterilizing….and did I say drinking?
  12. Bee keeping many uses from pollinating, honey, candles, trading. Edible honey was found in Pyramids buried for centuries.

Each aforementioned training topic could be a whole chapter in a book.  Remember there are no wrong ideas, some may be misguided or implemented incorrectly, but most of us have not gone through this before. Getting ideas together is the first step to getting prepared which leads to taking action and responsibility for you and your loved ones which just may save your life one day. Good luck to us all – we might just need it.

A Practical Utilitarian’s Take On Firearms and Calibers, by Kyrottimus

I’ve been working as a firearms and ammo salesman (and thusly, a consultant) in a storefront gun shop in northwestern Montana for the past few years now. My firearms experience far predates my time there in other gun-related industries. However, I have had the benefit of learning a great bit more (and still am) regarding firearms, ammo and the unique perspectives and applications of the end users. The day I stop learning is the day I stop breathing.

I get asked all the time, “What’s better, an AK or AR?” or “Mossberg 500 or Remington 870?” or currently the most common, “Glock or XD?” My answers vary, but usually begin with my own personal preferences but I go to on ask their unique requirements and mindset. Most are not expecting my answers, as I base my responses after asking a few questions of my own. A few include but are not limited to: “What would you primarily be using it for?”; “What is your level of firearms experience?”, or “What is your budget?”

There has been endless debates about firearms and calibers ever since the Internet was born, and long before that. I’m not going to get into such arguments, as I find both sides to any of them totally myopic at best. Let us look outside of the box of such constrained paradigms and use a simple analogy: firearms are tools. How you set up your toolbox simply relates to the number of jobs you can tackle in as many different ways. You can’t approach every task with just a hammer in your toolbox and expect top-notch results every time.

Let’s start with handguns. Other than reliability and accuracy, one of the most important selection criteria for any given user would be how it feels in the hand. If it’s not comfortable in your hand, it’s already not a good fit. Whichever pistol feels like it was made for your hand (and points naturally when extending your shooting hand) should be a finalist in your selection. This should help narrow the field greatly. While one might do lots of product research online or in books, you really must handle them in person to feel their ergonomics, balance and ease of operating the manual of arms.  Keep in mind that many new pistol models come with multiple backstraps for differing grip-size options.

A handgun is akin to a longsword of old. As a sidearm, its purpose was two-fold: as a secondary backup weapon to a longarm, and as personal carry weapon in more commonplace settings throughout daily life. It should fit the shooter in both ergonomics and function as defined by that user, and it will fill both roles nicely. A few makes/models I’d suggest starting with worth looking into are Glock, Smith&Wesson M&P, FN FNS (very recently introduced) and Springfield XDM. There are more, but those four are all good pistols to start looking at.

Longarms, on the other hand, are more specific in their roles. While there are many designs that can be considered multi-role, I would only consider this if you could only own one longarm. For some, financial constraints prevent them from filling out their toolbox with tools for all perceivable roles. I shall elaborate further, as I find longarms really do need a bit more in-depth coverage.

Whether it be a truck-rifle, ranch-rifle, home-defense rifle, personal-defense rifle, battle rifle or hunting rifle, if you can only own one firearm, it is my opinion that it should be a rifle. But if you can own more than one, then I’ll outline my personal take on the best for each task. I’ll now break down each of the most common rifles available in the United States, and the roles in which they shine (and potentially why you should consider one of each).

1.) AR family of rifles chambered in 5.56mm NATO. Specifically, the carbines. I’m not a big fan of the 20″ rifles unless scoped, as if you’re going to carry a 9 pound weapon, you might as well carry a battle rifle and double your power.

Why you should have one: They are ubiquitous. Parts, parts and more parts. Modularity and uniformity of parts make this weapon unparalleled in user-customized rifles. There are so many factory and aftermarket parts for them, it’s hard to keep track. Other than a few variables such as front-sight-block height or carbine-buffer-tube exterior diameter (Military vs. Commercial), they are pretty much plug-and-play. Having multiple uppers for a single lower (the actual firearm) makes it for a versatile weapon to begin your battery with. Ergonomics of this weapon are excellent. Also, they are a lot more reliable and robust than many keyboard commandos would have you think.

They are (the carbines) lightweight. Very, very lightweight. Unloaded, my 14.5” barrel (with a +2” permanently pinned/welded Phantom II Flash-Hider to make it of legal 16″+ overall barrel length) A1 configuration AR carbine weighs in at around 6.5 lbs, unloaded (including a sling and a TA44SG-10 Compact ACOG 1.5x16mm optic). Having a weapon this small, maneuverable and lightweight makes it my favorite for filling the role of a Personal Defense Weapon (PDW). The ammo is also very lightweight and one could carry many more rounds per pound than most other offerings. Also, they are inherently very accurate, even with standard aperture sights.

Where I would use it: Long Range Reconnaissance Patrol (LRRP), any long-duration traveling on foot, or potential CQB scenarios inside or around buildings. Point being, if I wanted to stay alive (but not stand my ground and fight, or assault a fortified location), to survive and break contact, this is the weapon I want. Lots of rounds can be put on target, accurately, with minimal recoil, in a very short period of time. Even if I just had to keep a threat’s head down long enough for me to get away alive, it’s perfect for it.

Drawbacks: Limited effective range. While the 5.56mm can hit targets accurately out to 700 meters, I would not rely on this cartridge to cause any reliable, consistent results on a live target past 500 meters (450 meters in a 14.5”to 16” carbine barrel.) Its pronounced wounding properties on soft-tissue usually expires past 200 meters, if not closer. Also, while it has great potential in steel penetration and intermediate to closer ranges, it lacks in penetrating thick cover (such as bricks, cinder-blocks, jersey barriers or trees) or plowing through things like branches or shrubs, as it is easily thrown off trajectory by the littlest contact. Also, ARs can often times be ammo-sensitive. Don’t shoot lacquered steel-cased ammo through them. Don’t do it. Test a box of the polymer-coated steel-cased ammo first before you buy a case of it, to make sure your AR can digest it.

Must-Haves: The McFarland 1-piece gas ring. In my opinion, this $4 part corrects the weakest link in the traditional design, the flimsy, easily worn-out 3-piece gas rings. If you are using a quality, in-spec bolt and carrier, it’s a no-brainer. I put one on every AR I build/customize if I can. I have yet heard of any negative feedback from anyone I’ve personally dealt with who uses this product. I’m absolutely smitten with mine.

Also, the Bravo Company Gunfighter charging handle is very important, as it removes the weak part (the standard USGI charging handle) if manipulating it in a left-hand side-grasp technique (fastest and most economical motion in AR operation), and replaces it with a part specifically designed to withstand the torque and loads applied when repeatedly using the side-grasp charging technique.

The Magpul B.A.D. Lever. Try one out if you can, you’ll cut your reload time in half, and the same goes for clearing stoppages.

2.) AK-47 / AKM family of rifles chambered in 7.62×39. The 5.45×39 variants, while great and accurate rifles, are simply not available enough (especially the ammo).

Why you should have one: Tough as nails. While not jam-proof (most stoppages are attributed to bad/dented steel magazines, underpowered ammo or roughly machined bolt-carrier reset hump shoulders from factory reject parts–which is easily correctable), most of the time they are boringly reliable. They really don’t have anything on them that will wear out, except for maybe the barrel way down the road. And if you’re using a good rifle with an as-new hammer-forged, chrome-lined ComBloc or Chinese barrel, your barrel-life will see 30,000-to-40,000 rounds before your groups start to open up. If built with proper parts, headspaced correctly and/or assembled by a competent smith (such as T. Mark Graham of Arizona Response Systems, one of the best), they are more than reasonably accurate too if you feed it with good ammo (like Golden Tiger).

While not as light as the AR carbines, these carbines balance well and are usually found to weigh between 7-8 pounds unloaded (depending on furniture and magazine composition). They are the jack-of-all-trades carbine. While they are only really best as a super-reliable “all weather rifle” (by “all weather”, I mean the ‘-40C frozen with ice inside the action and still goes bang’ kind of “all weather”), they don’t excel in any one area. But they can do everything pretty darn well (except for long-range sniping).

The 7.62×39 cartridge has a high case-taper to it, so feeding and extracting issues are almost nonexistent. The round is powerful, significantly more powerful than the 5.56mm round and can regularly shatter cinder-blocks or punch through 8″ trees or brick walls (turning cover for your target into mere concealment). Shooting through branches or brush does not alter the bullet’s trajectory very much. Though not as flat-shooting as the AR carbines in 5.56mm, the user can easily adjust the elevation of the sights and reach maximum effective range with reasonable accuracy, if you’re using quality ammo. It has an effective range of about 500 meters if you have good glass on it, or you have really good eyesight with the less-than stellar irons.

If I were being randomly dropped into somewhere on planet earth at random, and I didn’t know where, and I could take only one weapon, I’d pick an AKM.

Where I would use it: Anywhere and everywhere. Ideally, if I expected I might run into a potential firefight, I’d want it. While it can serve quite well as a PDW, it’s better used in that role in intermediate to short-range foot-travel. It serves well as a convoy or truck rifle (especially the AKMS models with folding stocks). It’s a great rifle for taking ground as it’s light enough to be carried while moving fast, and still packs plenty of wallop for fighting your way to the objective. Its sights lend itself well to CQB use, though the weapon being slightly heavier than an AR, it’s not quite as fast handling. Even if used as a defensive position weapon or suppressive-fire weapon, it would be more than adequate if the user knew how to employ it as such. Ergonomics of this weapon are fair, so long as you realize it’s not an AR and don’t try to operate it like one. It is also an effective hunting rifle, with ballistics similar to the venerable .30-30 (but with better range).

Drawbacks: While the iron sights can have their elevation adjusted out to 1,000 meters, anything beyond 500 meters is leaning more towards area-targeting than point-targeting. The sights were originally made to be fast-acquisition, and they excel in this role, however, they lack the precision to reach the weapon’s own accuracy potential of firing at max-effective range. Feed an AK with good boat-tail ammo and use a good sighting system and you’ll see the tales of their inaccuracy to be mostly exaggerated. The ergonomics do take a little bit of retraining for most Americans to get used to. Also, recoil is more pronounced (as comes with higher energy) than ARs. Ammo is very available and inexpensive, but the quality varies greatly. While all will likely go “bang” with much regularity, the variance in accuracy and power between brands is very eye-opening. The ammo is a bit heavier than 5.56mm so carrying the standard combat load of 210 rounds is going to weigh a pound or two more than as with fully-loaded 30 round AR mags.

Must-Haves: Bulgarian Circle-10 Magazines. There are no better AK mags. Period. They can be expensive, but they are worth it. They wont dent, they are lightweight, constructed in an eloquent amalgam of a steel cage in a polymer body, and fit and function flawlessly. Oh, did I mention they are tough as nails too?

If you want to update your sights, I suggest either Tech-Sights (for dedicated iron sights) or Texas Weapon Systems Dog-Leg scope rail (with optional rear peep included). The irons of either will almost double your sight radius and will likely cut your group sizes in half. Also, the addition of the Dog-Leg scope will allow for many optics options.

If you want to keep your existing sights but want to add a fast-acquisition forward sighting system, I’d start with the Ultimak AK rail which replaces your factory gas-tube.

Good Ammo. I say again: Good Ammo. Wolf/TulAmmo/Bear will work just fine for most general training purposes (close-range type training), but I suggest Golden Tiger (Vympel) for your standard all-purpose load. It’s consistently loaded (and loaded a bit warmer than the others–about as warm as it should be), accurate (using boat-tail bullets is a plus), sealed from moisture and lacquered for long-term storage. Unless you can find some surplus, brass-cased Finnish Lapua or Portuguese 7.62×39, then buy some Golden Tiger.

3.) A 7.62mm NATO Battle Rifle. Any that fits you, your budget and your shooting style best. Whether it be an FN/ FAL, M1A, HK91 or AR-10 format, all are good, accurate and reliable rifles if built by reputable companies. They all fulfill their roles as battle rifles very well.

Why you should have one: Accuracy. Range. Power. Lots and lots of power. The ultimate hold-the-line weapon. If you have your back up against a wall, and you need to dig in and defend your home from the worst of worst-case-scenarios (gang of armed marauders or worse), they’ll do the trick. If you aren’t bothered by their weight or bulk, the fact that they all seem to balance fairly well (with maybe with the exception of the HK91, though that is largely personal opinion and will vary) lends to their role.

They will punch through most of what would be considered cover for the other two aforementioned calibers. A 7.62mm NATO round will likely split an engine block with a single hit. It has twice the energy of a 5.56mm at the muzzle and roughly five times the energy of a 5.56mm at 600 meters. There is a reason these are referred to as “battle rifles”. If you are behind cover or laying prone and need to lay down some hard-hitting, longer-range firepower, accept no substitutes.

Where will I use it: LP/OP or guard duty, road or gate sentry duty. Holding the line. Garrison use.  Stopping threats in a vehicle, or the vehicle itself (most conventional vehicles, anyway). It’s a great for hunting too. Scoped and accurized, they make great designated marksmen rifles or counter-sniper rifles.

Drawbacks: They are heavy, significantly heavier than the other two mentioned carbines, weighing in at around 9-9.5lbs unloaded and 10-11lbs loaded. The ammo is heavy too, so one wouldn’t be able to carry as much ammo as with either of the other two unless one could handle an extra 5+ lbs. They also have quite the muzzle blast, so I would avoid shooting them indoors, under an overhang or against a wall without double hearing protection. Also, they have significant recoil. Not unmanageable, but still, it’s there.

Must-Haves: Magazines. Lots and lots of Magazines. Good, serviceable, quality magazines. Good quality ammo that is accurate in your rifle. A good sling. Beyond that, it’s up to you.

Before closing, let me talk a little on calibers. Pistol calibers to be more specific. Selecting a pistol caliber is less important as it once was twenty years ago. Ammunition brand selection is far more critical now than caliber selection. Cartridge development (mostly powders and projectiles) have come a very long way in a very short time.

The most used pistol cartridges are 9x19mm Luger, .40 S&W and .45 ACP. Again, these have been the hot subject of many an Internet debate. I hate to break it to you, but they’re all equally good. If you select the right weapon that can handle the most powerful loads offered for each caliber (+P and +P+), you’ll wind up with three calibers that can pump out approximately the same net muzzle energy and that open up to roughly the same diameter (~.75-.80″) within the first few inches of soft-tissue. I’ve spoken with many an EMT, Paramedic and medical examiner (several of whom are friends of mine) and they tell me the wounds all look the same, and that the caliber can only really be determined when the bullet is extracted (if any) and the base diameter is measured.

9x19mm is still the cheapest to buy, so training makes it the most accessible for those who don’t have time to handload. With bulk 9mm NATO ammo readily available (with comparable energy to most +P defense loads), one can easily mimic the recoil characteristics, point of aim and energy on target as their favorite defense loads without burning up $1 per round (or more) as seen in the premium defense ammunition.

Whatever caliber you decide on for your handgun of choice, get lots of ammo, train hard, and make your shots count. Shot-placement is far more critical with handguns than with centerfire rifles. I hear the cliché phrase “stopping-power” used so much, it makes me cringe. Let me dispel that term a bit. It takes less than 3ft/lbs of energy penetrating into the cerebellum to kill a person instantly. How is that for having enough power to “stop” someone? Physically, the only way to stop any threat instantly is a central-nervous system shot. The rest deals with shock-trauma or differing psychological responses to being shot, followed by the potential of bleeding out and/or some kind of bodily incapacitation.

If two loads, say a .45 ACP and a 9mm Luger both expand to roughly the same diameter (~.78″), and both penetrate roughly 12″ in soft-tissue, and subsequently both having roughly 365ft/lbs of energy each (which they do, if we’re talking about your average-power loads), the bad guy isn’t going to be able to tell a difference, because the same energy is transferred across the same medium over the same distance (thus energy transference is the same).

There are too many variables to take into account, one cannot simply paint this sort of thing with a broad brush. I’m merely trying to illustrate that when it comes to power, penetration, energy deposition and expansion, the three main pistol calibers found in the U.S. now overlap each other in performance much more than they used to (I could make a Venn Diagram but really, it’s not necessary). The FBI has done well over 30 years of testing, and surprise surprise, all three calibers (in the right loads/manufacturers) meet their requirements and then some.

When selecting a type of defense load, you’ll want something that will carry as much of its energy into the target as possible, without passing through with any remainder. Point being: a round that will not pass through the target will release all of its remaining energy into said target. For handgun defense ammo, I have a few favorites that would all serve you well: Speer Gold Dot +P (185 grain for .45, 165 grain for .40 and 124 grain for 9mm), Winchester Bonded PDX1 (basically an updated Black Talon), Cor-Bon DPX or anything from DoubleTap. For those who want super-efficient, reliable-feeding projectiles in loads that are more conducive to the recoil-sensitive (or if shooting from sub-compact pistols), I suggest Hornady FTX Critical Defense. It’s one heck of a cartridge, and surprisingly affordable.

In the end, if you, your family or your survival group all already have a ton of one specific handgun caliber, I’d suggest getting a handgun that fits your hand in that caliber and buying tons of ammo for it. Be choosy in the brand and load for your caliber, but don’t get too caught up in “picking the right caliber” when it comes to handguns. Whichever caliber you already have the most access to, that’s the one I’d focus on.

For more detailed information regarding handgun caliber load data, check out Ballistics101.com, it’s a great resource.

Again, this is all merely my take on this subject. I’m simply one guy who’s livelihood depends upon it. I’m not asking anyone to take me at my word. Do your own experimenting, chronographing, ballistics testing, penetration testing, torture testing, etc. and come to your own conclusions. I’ve spent a lot of time and money doing the above (initially simply for myself and my own restless curiosity) and maybe you can benefit from it and save a little in your firearms/ammo purchases so you can use the money you saved for other critical preparations (like food, first-aid, cutlery, clothing, logistical gear, training, etc.)

And remember: keep an ear to the ground, and eye to the sky, your hatchet sharp and your powder dry.

Letter Re: Those Looking For Leadership

Jim,
My family and I greatly appreciate all the work you have put into Survival blog and the wealth of knowledge of your readers.
I would like to share a situation that happened to me recently.
My family has been preparing in some fashion since around Y2K and have really stepped up the pace in the last four years since we found SurvivalBlog.
We are hearing God’s calling for us to move to the American Redoubt from behind enemy lines, okay he is no longer calling to us in the quiet voice more like yelling to us: GET TO SAFETY!
Our sense of urgency is off the scale.

So with lots of vacation time accumulated my wife and I made appointments with some realtors in the American Redoubt and searched out properties.
We only intended to make it a quick trip, drive up one day see properties the next and drive home the following day.
In the area we were looking nothing fit our needs so the next day we started for home drove about 75 miles and my wife stated she was not ready to go home yet.
I immediately pulled to the side of the road because I was feeling the same way.
Another one of those confirmation times for us, God was saying don’t leave yet.
We turned around and drove until we had cell service, I emailed the owner of the company I work for and asked for more time.
Here is where this situation gets to the point!
The owner approved my additional time off with no problem, but for some reason he didn’t notify the HR department or my staff of ten who work for me.
They were expecting me to return to work on Monday only knowing that my wife and I had headed out for the weekend.
Three of my staff are of the preparedness mind set and discuss events and ideas for preparing on a regular basis. (Always follow OPSEC with coworkers)
When I didn’t return on Tuesday morning the joking started between them, wonder where the boss is?
By Thursday morning these three employees are almost in a state of panic, not for my safety but are now searching the internet and news stations for any indication of TEOTWAWKI.

What does he know that we don’t?
Their level of situational awareness was so low that they were scrambling to catch up on any and all available news.
Calls and Emails to our cell phones went unanswered as we were out of range; we were in contact with our immediate family by text messaging.
Text messaging worked many times during this trip when the phone part didn’t.
By the end of Thursday the mild panic had spread to the other staff.
So when I returned to work the next day everyone was greatly relieved and then I realized the gravity of this.
These people are expecting me to tell them when the SHTF.
I can not be responsible for them and their families; I am not their leader outside of the work place, we have not committed to each other and to our families to be part of a group.
I had to find away to explain this to them.
So in the conversation of what could have happened and discussing their thoughts on why I disappeared (OPSEC not compromised).
I stated to them: “If you are waiting for me to tell you when to bug out, then it is already too late.”
It is your duty as the head of your family physically and spiritually to pay attention to what is happening in the world.
Each one of us has different trigger points in our lives and for our families as to when you have reached the point of no return and action must be taken.
As the head of your household how can you put this level of trust in another person outside of your family? You cannot!
Only trust in God, Listen to him; he will lead you down the right path!

Who are you following in your preparations?
You must use situational awareness in ever increasing circles but always use God as your center.
If this had actually been a TEOTWAWKI event and they were going about their daily lives waiting for me to yell circle the wagons they would have missed it by up to seven days depending on when they each thought it was bad enough to act.

Yes we did find a place in the Redoubt, our current house is ready to be placed on the market and hope it sells quickly. We are still praying for guidance.
Only God and faith in God can get things done quickly.

Thank you again, – D.R., Behind Enemy Lines

Economics and Investing:

Naïveté, Incroyable! U.S. House Panel Approves Bill Limiting Swaps-Regulation Reach. Do the congresscritters think that they are now somehow getting a handle on the derivatives market? (Thanks to J. McC. for the link.)

Debt Bubble: Why “Too Big To Fail” Banks Still Face Much Trouble Ahead
 
Fed Policy: Ben Bernanke is Warming Up His Helicopter

Items from The Economatrix:

Housing Market Recovery Hits Pothole

The Great Recession of 2007 Never Ended, We are in Fact in a Depression

10 Reasons Why the Reign of the Dollar as the World Reserve Currency is About to Come to an End

Crude Ends Lower On Inventory Rise, Reserves Talk

Odds ‘n Sods:

Mojopie was the first of several readers to send this link: Doomsday dating sites: ‘Don’t face the future alone’

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Frank B. mentioned this over at Washington’s Blog: The Government Spends Trillions On Unlikely Threats … But Won’t Spend a Billion Dollars to Prevent the Very Real Possibility of Global Nuclear Catastrophe

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Another round for lead ammo ( Thanks to Ron G. for the link.)

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Ian R. flagged this: Ottawa opens up emergency drug stockpile. JWR Asks: And after that reserve is depleted?

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Reader Pierre M. suggested this over at Police One: Edged Weapon Defense: Is or was the 21-foot rule valid?

Note from JWR:

Today we present two more entries for Round 39 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $275 value), and E.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A FloJak F-50 hand well pump (a $349 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, C.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and D.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 39 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Post-Apocalyptic Healthcare, by Dr. Daniel Stickler

I first began prepping about two years ago so I am fairly new to this.  In those two years I have been fairly aggressive with my education and training on the topic with much of my real world education coming from reading blogs.  I have found an area where there is a great deal of misinformation and limited preparedness so it has prompted me to address this topic since it is the one area where I possess a skill set that I can share.  The topic is healthcare after the SHTF.  I think it is difficult for any of us, especially in America, to understand how so many aspects of our health we may be taking for granted.  I can honestly say that I was in the same boat which is a sad statement considering the fact that I am a physician.

To give a little background as a lead in; I worked as a general and vascular surgeon for about 10 years after I finished residency.  A little over two years ago I walked away from that to focus on nutrition, fitness, and wellness counseling.  There were many reasons for this change, lifestyle being a big one but more importantly I came to understand that we were no longer practicing medicine but rather pharmacology and surgery.  I found that training people to modify lifestyle was the best defense and prevention strategy and this certainly applies to prepping.

I will be focusing on four topics:

  • Optimizing your health
    • Nutrition
    • Fitness
  • Healthcare skill sets
  • Water and hygiene
  • Healthcare supplies

Optimizing your Health

Health should be viewed as a spectrum with chronic disease at one end, disease-free in the middle, and optimized health at the other end.  Think about where you would want to be and whom you would want in your survival group should the SHTF.

In reading through the various prepper and survival blogs, I see so many people that are unhealthy and they do not hesitate to talk about it.  I would be worried if I were in this situation or if I had to rely on this person as an essential link in my support group.  Stocking up on medications may help but what happens when they run out or expire?   Will you live to take advantage of all your amazing preparations or will they be taken from you?  The solution is to get out of the chronic disease end of the spectrum and get as close to optimal health as possible.  I treat and resolve chronic disease every day by basically changing one thing: lifestyle.  This means nutrition and fitness.  You just have to understand that chronic diseases such as Type II diabetes, high blood pressure, and most high cholesterol are actually just symptoms of a poor lifestyle, you fix that, and you fix the problem without medication.

Nutrition is the key to good health; the problem is there is way too much misinformation out there as to what constitutes good nutrition.  What I am about to say will make most prepper gasp, but let me explain.  Get rid of all grains from the diet!  Now, that said, I do store grains but I do not currently eat them, they are reserved as emergency foods only.  You may now be asking, “where does this insanity come from?”  Well the answer is biochemistry and anthropology.  We are and always have been physiologically hunter/gatherers and grains were not a part of our natural diet.  Our bodies function best and experience the most positive effects from a hunter/gatherer style diet.  I am not asking you to immediately take my word for it just because I have a few initials at the end of my name, but I do ask that you try this challenge – give up all grain, bread, pasta, rice, crackers, chips, pretzels, popcorn, sweets, etc., for one month and see how you feel.  You will eat only meats, eggs, vegetables, fruits, and nuts during this time and eat all you want.  You will experience amazing results.  Since I do have limited space here to go into all the details, I have provided a link to a video on Vimeo to help explain my approach to this diet: Functional Nutrition.

Other good sources of information are the books The Paleo Solution: The Original Human Diet by Robb Wolf and The Primal Blueprint by Mark Sisson.  Sisson also has a great web site at MarksDailyApple.com.  Good nutrition is 80% of a healthy lifestyle, it is the base of the pyramid of health and without it you cannot develop optimal health.  I am not promoting some agenda here or trying to sell some magic snake oil, all I can tell you is that I have been utilizing this diet in my clinical practice for years and the health transformations and the disease resolutions I have witnessed are amazing.

Another aspect of optimal health is fitness.  It is a necessity in survival and should be an integral part of any preparation regimen.  Everyone seems to prep for food, medical and self defense but another aspect of preparation is your body.  I would like to see the 3 Bs change to the 4 Bs: Beans, Bullets, Band-Aids, and Body.  Your level of fitness will be directly proportional to your chances of survival so you need to train the right way.  Bottom line – lift heavy stuff and run fast.  What I recommend is functional fitness and you do not need a gym for this.  Functional fitness means training the body to be able to do the necessary things in life well and remember, life will be substantially different if society fails.  If you have weights available, then lift heavy – squats, cleans, military press, rows.  Add push-ups and pull-ups.  Chop and carry wood, dig ditches, and run sprints. The book The Primal Blueprint that I mentioned has some good functional training advice and workouts.

Healthcare Skillsets

The practice of medical care could change dramatically in this scenario.  Physicians and nurses currently practice with the aid of technology, sterile environments, a slew of available instruments and specialist referrals.  EMTs and paramedics are trained in stabilization and transport.  Despite my surgical training and experience, my experience in a level 4 trauma center and having been an Advanced Trauma Life Support instructor, I would have little skills to care for people in a post-apocalyptic scenario.  That was until I began studying wilderness medicine.  Wilderness medicine training is available for health care providers (EMTs, paramedics, nurses, and physicians) and what makes this different is that you have to diagnose and more importantly TREAT in the field without the benefit of technology and transport.  In TEOTWAWKI scenario things like minor wounds, burns, blisters, and fractures become potentially life-threatening emergencies. I never realized all this until I took a Wilderness First Responder course offered by NOLS (National Outdoor Leadership School) and I feel that this is an absolute necessity for someone in your group.  We should all know how to properly clean and care for wounds, close lacerations, treat a burn, splint and reduce fractures and dislocations in situations where we do not have the luxury of modern technology.  Now this course will not make you the Dr. House of the TEOTWAWKI but it will give you the basis to build from and a level of comfort in dealing with many of the issues you may encounter.  You should still have access to someone with advanced medical training.

Water and Hygiene

Wilderness medicine gets you thinking about things we take for granted like water or hygiene.  In the wilderness, clean water is your best friend.  Even sparkling clear mountain spring water can be full of protozoa and bacteria so boiling or filtration is essential.  What kills more people worldwide?  Infectious diarrhea.  This is also one of the number one debilitations in the wilderness along with food poisoning related to poor food prep hygiene.  It is also important to remember that filtration will not get rid of viruses, so in the face of a viral outbreak if the water supply gets contaminated, you will need a chemical disinfectant as well.  Iodine and/or chlorine will work well for this added safety.  We need to look at the health care issues faced in the third world countries in order to fully understand what we need to prepare for should the worst case scenario occur.

Healthcare Supplies

First thing to remember here is that it will do you no good to stock up on supplies that you have no skill or knowledge to use.  When I design and stock kits for people, I always find out what abilities they possess first.  You also have to determine what size group you want to prepare for and the environment where the kit will be needed.  I typically see a need for three types of kits and a stock of supplies on top.

Kit #1: Basic field kit.  This kit needs to be compact and lightweight but still be supplied to cover you for a 1-5 day trip away from your Bugout Location (BOL) for 3-4 people.  This should cover everything for stabilizing illness or injury long enough to get you back to your BOL.  This is the kit that I keep in my Bugout Bag (BoB) and I take hiking or camping.
Basic contents:

  • Sterile and non-sterile gloves
  • Facemasks with eye protecting, also antiviral mask
  • Thermometer
  • Ace bandage and scissors
  • Various quantities of different size sterile gauze and gauze rolls
  • Field surgical kit and sutures
  • Variety of medical and athletic tape
  • Moleskin for blisters and second skin for burns
  • Opsite or other occlusive dressing
  • Steristrips and benzoin for wound closure
  • Small vial of povidone iodine or betadine
  • Bacitracin and Cortisone
  • Thermal reflective blanket
  • SAM splint
  • Eye pad
  • Large irrigation syringe
  • Several cravats
  • Quikclot or Celox trauma bandage
  • Pen light
  • Emergency resuscitator pocket facemask
  • Ibuprofen, aspirin, Benadryl, and various antibiotics

Kit #2: Advanced Home Kit. This is an advanced medical kit for the home or BOL.  It contains all the above items from Kit #1 just larger quantities, plus:

  • Stethoscope and BP cuff
  • Fiberglass casting wrap
  • Greater variety of surgical items
  • Lidocaine, needles, and syringes
  • Battery operated cautery device
  • Skin stapler
  • Greater variety of antibiotics and other prescription meds
  • Emergency cricothyrotomy kit

Kit #3: Advanced Trauma Kit.  Now this kit would be mainly for people with advanced medical training or military field medics.  I keep this is a STOMP bag and it weighs about 40 pounds.  It is basically a portable trauma bay with advanced surgical instrumentation, major wound treatments, airway control, etc.

My recommendation is to train each person in your group in the basic medical skills and have each carry a basic kit.  Many prep groups run drills for defense and bug-out but few run through medical scenarios and these are the most likely issues that they would encounter.  Each group or family should have someone in charge of medical and it should be their responsibility to train the others.

So our best course of action is prepare and prevent.  Prepare by optimizing each individuals health, have the training necessary for your environment, and have the appropriate tools and knowledge in order to act.  Prevent by obtaining/maintaining optimal health, recognizing and understanding the risks of your environment, practice good hygiene, and utilize adequately filtered water.