Understanding Five Types of Electrical Losses in Alternative Power Systems, by Roger A.

“Line Loss” is often mentioned when discussing alternative energy systems, but that is just one of several significant losses. This article will describe five distinct types of losses.

In an alternative energy system that incorporates a battery or battery bank, the first electrical loss is within the batteries themselves as they discharge, this is called the Puekert exponent. This loss increases with the aging of the batteries. Look at it this way: If you had a 500 gallon tank of water and you used 200 gallon a day you would have to replace 200 gallons every day or 400 gallons every other day. If this tank had a half inch hole it could lose say 50 gallons a day. That means you would have to put 250 gallons back in every day to keep it full.  The erosion on that hole would increase the size of the hole and the loss as time goes on. Whether you used water or not you would have to replace this loss or the tank would be empty when you wanted to use the water. Like that tank of water, a battery has the same type of loss every day, whether it is used or not. 

Second is line loss, which increases with line distance, especially in direct current low voltage applications. This is why higher voltages are becoming popular. The lower voltage’s lose efficiency and can become dangerous if wire sizing isn’t given special attention. On the other hand the higher the voltage the less choices of direct current appliances (12 volt) you will have. The lower the voltage the larger the wire must be to maintain a safe system. It also needs to be multi stranded. Multi-strand cabling increases the surface area. This can’t be overstated. 

 

The following table shows the Voltage Drop Index (VDI) per foot of various sizes of copper and aluminum cabling.

VDI = Amps times Feet divided by (% volt drop times voltage)

Wire Size – Copper Wire               Wire size – Aluminum Wire

AGW  VDI      Ampacity     VDI      Ampacity

0000   99       260             62         205
000     78       225             49         175
00       62       195             39         150
0         49       170             31         135
2         31       130             20         100
4         20        95             12           75
6         12        75 
8          8         55
10        5         30
12        3         20
14        2         15
16        1

Determine the appropriate wire size from chart above.

A) Take the VDI number you just calculated and find the nearest number in the VDI column, then read to the left for AWG wire gauge size.    B) Be sure that your circuit amperage does not exceed the figure in the Ampacity column for that wire size. (This is not usually a problem in low-voltage circuits.)

Example: A photovoltaic (PV) array consisting of four Sharp 80-watt modules is 60 feet from your 12-volt battery. This is actual wiring distance, up pole mounts, around obstacles, etc. These modules are rated at 4.63 amps X 4 modules = 18.5 amps maximum. We’ll shoot for a 3% voltage drop.   So our formula looks like: 

  VDI = (18.5 A a 60 ft.)divided by (3% x 12 V) = 30.8

Looking at our chart a VDI of 31 means we’d better use #2 gauge wire in copper, or #0 gauge aluminum wire. Hmmm. That is fat wire.

What if this system was instead 24 volt? The modules would be wired in series, so each pair of modules would produce 4.4 amps. Two pairs 4.63 amps = 9.3 amps, Max.   

VDI = ( 9.3 x 60 ft.) Divided by ( 3% x 24 V) = 7.8

What a difference! At 24 volts you could wire your array with # 8 gauge copper wire.

[JWR Adds: Up until the 1980s, residential aluminum AC wiring was allowed in new construction by the U.S. National Electrical Code (NEC), in branch circuits (inside walls.) But because of a higher incidence of house fires caused by overloaded circuits, beginning in the 1980s nearly all state building codes were updated to ban aluminum wiring in branch circuits, for new construction. Typically, these laws grandfathered aluminum wiring it in existing houses.]

Next, I’ll discuss inverters. Losses within inverters are the third types of loss. Converting direct current (DC) to 110 or 220-volt alternating current (AC) creates another electrical loss. Inverters are an electrical appliance and use electricity (3 to 40 watts) to run. The better inverters have a “search mode” using from 3 to 5 watts when no loads are detected. When operating an appliance they may use from 25 to 40 watts plus the appliance load. This can be anywhere from minutes to 24 hours a day, depending how long the inverter needs to be on to operate the appliances needed. The cheaper inverters do not have a search mode and must run 24 hours a day unless turned off and on mechanically. This usage can use up to 1,000 watts a day. This amount of electrical usage is equivalent to having two 100-watt panels in direct sunlight for 5 hours just for ability to use electricity if you want to, or three 100-watt panels if there are clouds passing by from time to time. It is much wiser to have an inverter with a search (sleep) mode especially if you have a load that needs to have access to electricity on a non continues basis, like a refrigerator or furnace. If the electrical system has one 110 Volt inverter and 220 Volts are needed the transformer uses electricity (25 to 35 watt range) just like any other appliance.

Phantom loads are the fourth loss. Phantom loads are created by appliances that have been designed to still need electricity while nominally switched “off”. The is often the greatest loss, especially in 110-volt AC systems. These are a serious problem in smaller systems. These can be voltage converters that convert a/c back to a variety of lower voltages both AC and DC (wall warts). Clocks, timers, remotes, smoke alarms, and even ground fault interrupt (GFI) outlets are all culprits. (It is noteworthy that GFI outlets are required by the electrical code for bathrooms and kitchens and can use as much as 5 watts per 24 hours.) Appliances with timers and clocks like microwaves and stoves also create phantom loads. Remote controlled appliances like televisions and stereos are the biggest users of electricity while off, some using as much as 80% as much electricity while off as when switched on. All so you can turn them on without going over and using physical force. If industry were to eliminate these phantom loads in their appliances we could close several power plants and save our environment and resources, as well as reducing heart attacks (exercise walking to the television and back to the chair) but people and industry would rather talk than do. These combined phantom loads often exceed the electrical consumption of the necessary household appliances like refrigerators and furnaces. Simple switching could save thousands of watts per household. These phantom loads would save enough electricity to eliminate the need for rolling blackouts in the cities, like happened in Texas.

[JWR Adds: The simple workaround to eliminate phantom loads is to put any identified culprit devices on power strips. When you’ve finished using the device, make sure that you turn off the entire power strip. The key here is to position the power strip in a convenient place on top of furniture, so that it doesn’t get overlooked. Granted, this approach detracts from your home’s decor.]

I was able to buy my second inverter and its accessories because of phantom loads. (These had soured their first owner on PV power.) Refrigerators are normally the largest users of electricity. Some have ice makers and need a “resistance heater” coil (in the freezer) to free the ice, automatically defrost, also using “resistance heating” and a “resistance heater” coil in the wall at the door to keep the magnets dry in humid climates because safe latches cost more to produce and diminish the manufacturer’s profits. These types of refrigerators can use 3.5 to 5 kWh per day. Short-term gain is certainly more important than efficiency or clean air. Some have a switch to disable this door feature for arid climates thus gaining the good ‘OLE’ Energy Star rating (most don’t). Another load can be a thermostat like all 120 VAC electric refrigerators and some gas heaters. When these are plugged into grid there is no load as the electric is available 24/7 (24 hours a day, 7 days a week) to the thermostat. Not so off grid. A cheap inverter has to run 24/7 to duplicate this feature, and can be using as high as 600 watts a day just to have your appliance off while allowing the capability for the appliance to come on. This usage can be eliminated by using an external thermostat with a plug system to plug into the wall and plug the refrigerator into the plug. 

[JWR Adds: If you want to track down all of the phantom loads in a modern house, buying a Kill-A-Watt Meter is strongly recommended.]
 
The better quality modified sine wave or pure sine wave inverters use a search mode and eliminate this problem, by allowing a mechanical device to be installed or the sensitivity to be lowered enough to sense the small voltage needed to make active the device.  The lack of a search mode is the fifth potential loss. All this is before whatever appliance you intend to run can have electricity to do its intended job. Some pellet and gas stoves used instead of central heat have electronics that are two sensitive to run on modified sine wave (as are many other appliances). In some this will cause their “magic blue smoke” to appear. Most of the quote “real deals” on inverters are for inverters that use modified sine wave technology. Even better deals are on older square wave inverters (which may cause motors to show their “magic” abilities also). Many of these are sold in places like eBay and the tool magazines ‘you pay your money you take your chances. When shopping for an inverter a person needs to be aware of this fact. Many solar stores try to sell what they have in stock rather than what you need. As larger chains become involved in the sale of solar equipment misinformation will increase. Many factories offer incentives to their retailers to buy these older types of inverters, thus clearing old stock. Many foreign companies only make the older type of inverters. It is truly buyer beware! “Good information is the key” search it out whenever possible and you will be rewarded.

Many of the systems that I have built, modified, or altered and tested were on a small solar system by today’s standard. Thus teaching myself to conserve and question efficiencies. This was important to me. By this time I was completely off grid and had cut my electrical consumption to less than 6 kWh per day. This included using my shop welder (electric) that made many of the devices (photovoltaic trackers, etc) that I was using. Most all the systems herein were modified in this manner. I often had electrical components waiting for the remainder of the upgrades.  The object was to use the old system as well as adding the new ones when they can be afforded. Mixing old but usable batteries with new will age the new making their capacity the same as the old, defeating the purpose of buying new. This is something that anyone who plans to become independent needs to learn while still living on grid. That way one knows how to deal with the quirks that arise without feeling the real discomfort that comes from not having put in the time to learn and understand. All of these remedies that I detail in my working for independence may not be the same avenues you wish to explore, but often the idea or the switching can be modified to be used in a different appliance or on a totally different project. Often just the idea will be the seed or the key leading to success, rather than “do it this way”  I now live in an earth ship miles from utilities. I make my own or do without. I have almost every convince that I had before, like a dishwasher, trash compacter, microwave, bread maker and many other kitchen appliances that use electricity. Many I could do without ‘but’ I like them and have made room for them in my life.  (Don’t we all.) Most people think this can’t be done. Not true! I have to be aware of my battery’s state of charge before using many of these appliances, but often I have spare electricity at the day’s end.

A Real World Perspective on Expense Paybacks
Many people ask me what is the payback time on all my solar power equipment? In reply, I ask them what is the payback on their electric bill, gas bill, water bill. Also, what is the pay back when the grid goes down and you lose everything in your freezer? I am helping the environment are you? I am not using alternative energy to make money; I am doing it for the independence that I gain!   Look around you. How many power outages have there been lately? I haven’t had any. How about you? One question I never hear in the solar power industry is what is my payback on the grid-tie system that someone else put in and [for which they] only paid a portion of and then claimed their payback was just so many years, and I as a taxpayer had to pay the balance? I paid for my own [system] out of my pocket, with no help from any agency or deduction whatsoever.

Letter Re: Defending Static Positions in a Survival Setting

Good day, Mister Rawles.

Thank you, as always, for the good work you do.

Regarding J.G.’s article homestead defence, it occurred to me that stand-off situations would become a likely possibility.

Reasonably, a group of attackers will launch an assault on your homestead and either succeed or fail to kill/capture you.
If they succeed the point is moot, but if they fail, what then? Unless their force is clustered or small you’re unlikely to kill them all. Odds are strong that after half their force (or maybe less) gets ventilated the rest will attempt to retreat.

What will they do afterwards? Look for a less defended homestead or simply wait for a better time to crack your defences? Perhaps they’ll set the nearby foliage alight after determining the direction of the wind and attack under cover of smoke or simply find the best position to take pot-shots at your residence. Several sleepless days later you’ll be exhausted and your nerves will be wracked.

Heaven forbid they have a distance shooter more skilled than your watchman. Suddenly the odds are not looking so great, are they?

It’s for this reason I think it’s important to be able to communicate with the goblins after they lay siege to your residence.
Negotiate?
Bargain?
Not a chance!

Instead, a suitably powerful loudspeaker (or failing that, a note wrapped around the shaft of an arrow) can convey to the goblins that you will fight to the bitter end, and that the last man standing will detonate a well placed petrol bomb and reduce their prize to ashes.

This strategy could even prove effective against less violent but more populous mobs (such as any locally organised “food redistribution teams”).
Cheapen the “reward” part of the enemy’s risk/reward analysis and you will certainly fight less battles than you might otherwise have to. You’ll also be able to give those less vicious trespassers their marching orders at a more suitable distance.

Kind regards, as always. – The Apple Islander

JWR Replies: In a world without advanced medical care or even antibiotics available, who in their right minds would risk repeated attacks on a resilient target? It is reasonable to expect that in most cases, looters will see the error of their ways and move on to easier pickings. (Unarmed victims.) Your part of this equation is to be truly resilient. In a situation where there is no extant law enforcement agency left to summon, it will be “You’re on your own” (YOYO) time. Don’t ever make the mistake of appeasing or negotiating with goblins. Looters only understand thick walls, stout doors, and force. So be prepared to provide plenty.

Sometimes a display of force will be enough to discourage looters, so that they will go find easier pickings. As I mentioned once before in SurvivalBlog, one of my consulting clients is a rancher in the intermountain west. He has a 24″ diameter, 3/4″-thick round steel plate hung up on chains above his perimeter fence gate, which is 250 yards from his house. (He has a typical western ranch entry gate with a very high, stout crosspiece.) This plate is painted with his cattle brand logo, so to the casual observer it merely looks decorative. He’s told me is that his intention is that if miscreants stop and show signs of forcing his gate, he will used a scoped FAL rifle to apply several rapid shots to that steel plate. He calls it his “Go away” bell. Hearing his “bell” ring will be a clear message to los hombres malos: “You have 250 yards of open ground to traverse to get to my house. Do you feel lucky, or bulletproof?”

Again, in genuinely Schumeresque times, during hours of darkness it is likely that a semi-auto burst of tracer rounds fired over the heads of a gang of looters might have a similar effect. One of my readers also suggested placing 20 pound Tannerite targets in positions around a retreat’s perimeter. Ideally, these target would be positioned so that they can be seen and targeted by the retreat defenders but not by the attackers. (Tannerite can be really impressive.) Depending on the circumstances, demonstrating one or two of those going “boom” in plain view somewhere between the looters and your retreat residence might be a good way to encourage the ruffians to leave.

One strong proviso: The use of “warning shots” or other displays of force could be misconstrued. State laws on warning shots vary widely. (Be sure to check your local and state laws!) In some states, this might be considered justifiable, but it in others it is a potential felony. I would only recommend doing this in the midst of a true “worst case” societal collapse, only from a long distance (firing from cover), and only if no law enforcement were available to call. Do not attempt this in present day circumstances or you will risk getting sued or prosecuted! Also note that tracer ammunition and Tannerite are banned in a few jurisdictions. Again: Do your homework!

Please don’t mistake any of the foregoing as sure solutions. Merely scaring off looters might not be sufficient. Certainly don’t use displays of force more than once, per customer. The first time should be their only warning. Be prepared, if need be, to follow it up with a heavy dose of lead if they persist and thereby demonstrate that they plan to kill you.

And you are right: You need to be able to demonstrate that you are willing to fight to finish. Anything less will be a sign of weakness that can be exploited.

Letter Re: Rules of Engagement and Escalation of Force for the Armed Citizen

Recently Fox News published an article about a Hew Hampshire man being arrested on reckless endangerment for discharging a firearm into the ground as a warning shot to stop a burglar. Reading that article got me thinking about what rules of engagement and escalation of force would look like for civilians. As a former infantry officer and combat veteran of the U.S. Army, I am familiar with the Army’s rules of engagement (ROE) and the use of escalation of force (EOF).

Soldiers have a clearly defined set of rules of engagement and escalation of force for different scenarios from peace-time guard duty to combat operations. I believe responsible armed citizens should have them as well. What I would recommend for each firearm owner is to determine what your top 2 to 3 most likely scenarios for dealing with a possibly armed and dangerous individual would be, researching the state and local laws regarding self defense and the defense of others, then developing your
own rules of engagement (ROE) and escalation of force (EOF) for each of those scenarios. One set of ROE and EOF may be all you need or a couple of them may be necessary. Personally, I prefer to keep it simple so I only have one set of ROE and EOF.

A useful model of rules of engagement to base your own off of is the U.S. Army’s ROE for guard duty. The acronym RAMP may help you develop your own ROE:
• R – Return Fire with Aimed Fire. Return force with force. You always have the right to repel hostile acts with necessary force.
• A – Anticipate Attack. Use force if, but only if, you see clear indicators of hostile intent.
• M – Measure the amount of force that you use, if time and circumstances permit. Use only the amount of force necessary to protect lives and accomplish the mission.
• P – Protect with deadly force only human life and property designated by your commander. Stop short of deadly force when protecting other property.

Remember, this is a base model and should be modified for your specific scenarios. I would argue that there is little property that you may have that a jury would deem worthy of protection by the use of deadly force. Therefore, my personal ROE excludes the use of deadly force to protect my personal property and property of others as I do not wish to face an arrest and/or conviction over stuff that can be replaced. Develop your own ROE with what you are comfortable with that is in accordance with state and local laws. State and local laws vary greatly on the use of deadly force to protect personal property so make sure you check the applicable laws in your area before adding that to your ROE and actually using deadly force to protect your property or the property of others. The use of a firearm against another individual, whether they survive or not, may be considered using deadly force.

Next is your escalation of force or EOF for short. The U.S. Army model for EOF is below:
• SHOUT – verbal warning to halt.
• SHOVE – nonlethal physical force.
• SHOW – intent to use weapon.
• SHOOT – deliberately aimed shots until threat no longer exists.
Warning shots are not permitted.

It should be noted that military installations are generally around a populated area and the most likely scenario they will face is a protest and/or riot so the guard duty ROE and EOF do not allow for warning shots in order to prevent collateral damage and unintended civilian casualties.

For my own personal EOF guide I have removed the Shove step as a bad guy within range of physical contact is too close and would leave precious little time to anticipate an attack. Therefore my personal EOF guide is Shout, Show, Shoot. In the case of the New Hampshire man who fired a warning shot, checking state and local laws regarding warning shots could possibly have saved him from the ensuing legal battle he was faced with. Again, be absolutely certain to check your state and local laws before adding warning shots to your EOF and/or actually firing a warning shot. Ignorance is not a valid defense and you should not turn yourself into a criminal by firing a warning shot if they are not permitted in your locale.

Another great place to learn about state and local laws for the use of a firearm for self defense is a state approved concealed carry course. Some states, such as Florida, do not require a course if you can prove you are proficient in the use of firearms (such as a DD-214 discharge document from the military). If your state does not require a course, attending an NRA or other licensed instructor course for concealed carry will educate you on where you can and can not carry as well as provide you with different scenarios on when to use force. Each year the NRA also publishes the Traveler’s Guide to Firearms Laws of the Fifty States which will inform you as to what states recognize other state’s permits. Remember, that publication is only a resource and should not be substituted for checking with state and local laws on where you intend to carry.

By having a thought out and planned set of Rules of Engagement and Escalation of Force guide you will be better prepared to react to adverse situations and will have a better defense against criminal prosecution if you use that level of force only which is necessary to neutralize the threat and/or diffuse the situation. Sincerely, – B.K.

Economics and Investing:

After an unexpectedly long delay, here it comes: Stivers’ steel-coin bill gets hearing in House. (2012 may be your last chance to stack up your rolls of nickels with relative ease, at face value.)

Reader “AmEx” sent this: Taxmageddon coming? Answer could cost Americans $500 billion

The latest in the ever-growing world of derivatives: Could the Next Investment Craze Be Hedging Marriages?

Kevin S. sent this: It’s Starting To Look Like This Notorious Book On The End Of Growth Was Right

Several readers sent this: 16 Reasons To Move Away From California

Items from The Economatrix:

More US Cities Set to Enter Default Danger Zone

Did Doctor Copper Become Doctor Plopper?

Gold Heading to $700; Author Sees “Impending Collapse”

Economists’ Forecast:  Congress Won’t Fix Economy

Odds ‘n Sods:

After a long interval, Ol’ Remus of The Woodpile Report again addresses the fine art of stacking woodpiles.

   o o o

Scientists Say Spread of Schmallenberg Virus Is ‘Warning To Europe’. (Thanks to Gregg P. for the link.)

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Chris M. sent this amazing tale of long-term caching: Twenty Spitfire aircraft buried in Burma during war to be returned to UK.

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I just heard that Levon Helm passed away. He was a man who will be missed. By coincidence, just a couple of days ago I heard a cover of the song “Up on Cripple Creek”, and commented to myself that it wasn’t nearly as good as Levon Helm and The Band’s rendition.

   o o o

Jessica Hooley, the author of the Salt n’ Prepper blog, just posted this how-to piece: Super Saver: DIY ’100 Hour Candles

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“O LORD, though our iniquities testify against us, do thou [it] for thy name’s sake: for our backslidings are many; we have sinned against thee.
O the hope of Israel, the saviour thereof in time of trouble, why shouldest thou be as a stranger in the land, and as a wayfaring man [that] turneth aside to tarry for a night?
Why shouldest thou be as a man astonied, as a mighty man [that] cannot save? yet thou, O LORD, [art] in the midst of us, and we are called by thy name; leave us not.” – Jeremiah 14:7-9 (KJV)

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 40 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 40 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Defending Static Positions in a Survival Setting, by J.G.

You’re a prepper.  You have stores of food and water, supplies, commo gear, and everything you could conceivably need in order to survive the Apocalypse.  Unfortunately, that also means that you’re a target.  Eventually everyone in the neighborhood will figure out that you and yours are maintaining your weight while everyone else in society is starving, and your neighbors will cease to behave in a neighborly way.  To say “Oh well, I guess I should have prepared” is not the human way.  They will attempt to take your provisions by force. 

This is one of the primary reasons that I advocate for bugging out to a location where your entire extended family, and maybe some carefully chosen friends, can cohabitate and provide from common security.  It’s great to have massive stores of supplies and food to keep you alive, but it means nothing if those supplies are violently removed from your possession because of a lack of security.  Better to be in a community of like-minded people who are all endeavoring towards survival than to attempt to stick it out alone.  There is a reason why communities formed at the dawn of humanity, and provision for the common defense is one of them.
That being said, simply having warm bodies around your property will do little to prevent pilferage and outright violence against your provisions should worse come to worst.  You need to have some knowledge of the most basic principles of defense in order to being preparing for this sort of situation now.  That being said, I’ll make a brief discussion of the basics and help you see the light at the end of the tunnel for preparing your property for the fall of civilization.

Borrowing from military doctrine, here are the principles of defense in a nutshell:

All around defense.    It should go without saying that all around defense should be a top priority, but I guarantee that there are people making this mistake as we speak in their defense preparations.  It does absolutely no good to have the most high-speed, kick-resistant, steel-reinforced front door in the world if you don’t lock your back door.  Likewise, all of the provisions in the world will not help you if they are beyond the scope of your ability to effectively protect them. 

Take a thorough look at your security situation.  Think about how many people you have to secure your location, and the amount of space that can be reasonably secured by that number of people.  As you think through these items, remember that the average sentry is good for about 4 hours, semi-awake for 8 hours, and utterly worthless at the 12 hour mark.  It doesn’t matter how well they are trained or how motivated they are.  Nobody can stand watch forever. 

After a gut check, decide how much real estate you can reasonably secure.  If you don’t have enough people to secure your entire five acre estate, then consider securing only the main house.  If you don’t have enough people for that, consider securing only the basement.  If it’s one bedroom, then so be it.  Fit as much useful stuff as you can into one bedroom and be willing to part with the rest of your provisions in the event of an armed incursion.  Knowing what you can and can’t secure will keep you alive.

I recommend organizing your supplies in accordance with the priority of the supply.  If you know you can secure one room, but think you may be able to hold three rooms, you would place your highest priority items in the room that you know without a doubt can be secured indefinitely.  Such items might include guns and ammo, drinking water, and food.  Other less important items can be placed in other rooms that you are less likely to be able to hold.

Defense in depth.  On the battlefield, we use this concept to ensure that we have redundancy in our security apparatus.  In other words, we have a mine field, then a fence, then a row of obstacles, then a bunch of defensive positions.  If one security apparatus fails, there are more layers of the onion remaining.  Such considerations are important for defending large expanses of property.  They are also vitally important for defending a single family dwelling, and can be micro-applied to that job as well. 

For instance, you probably have a dead bolt on your front door.  You should also have a door bar in place.  Beyond the door bar, you should have a wedge bar.  If an intruder gets beyond those defenses, you should have solid doors with dead bolt locks on each interior room of your home.  You get the idea. The more layers of security you have in place, the more time you will have to consolidate your family in the safe room, arm yourselves, and/or bug out when trouble comes knocking. 

The first two principles are no-brainers that absolutely everyone should be implementing.  The next three are more useful for folks who have enough people to mount a proper defense of their property and provisions.

Key Terrain.  Know the layout of your property.  Be able to physically occupy, or occupy by fire all of the key terrain in your area.  For instance, if there is a giant hill overlooking your property, you should have a plan to place someone on that hill.  It will be an effective vantage point to detect advancing trouble makers, and will allow the alarm to be sounded more quickly, thus providing precious minutes of preparation for the incursion.
To occupy by fire means that, in the event that you can’t physically place a person on the hill, you can at least cover it by sniper fire, etc.  The basic idea is that if you can’t use the hill to your advantage, your enemy shouldn’t be able to use the hill either.  Denying the enemy this advantage means that he must essentially fight blind, which tilts the battle in our favor.

Avenues of Approach.  Avenues of approach allow the bad guys rapid, high-speed infiltration into our secure zone, and must therefore be dealt with.  Examples might be roads, dry creek beds, large game trails, or any other terrain through which men and vehicles can move rapidly.  Avenues of approach are a major concern because a heavy truck traveling at forty miles per hour will more than likely have no trouble defeating your gates, fences, etc. 

The idea when dealing with avenues of approach is twofold.  First, we want to limit high speed ingress to our property.  If we have a long, straight road, we might want to employ massive speed bumps, deep ditches across portions of the road, and serpentine obstacles to ensure that any vehicles are speed breaking prior to approaching our property.  This gives us time to properly assess the approaching people and determine whether or not they are a threat, and react accordingly. 

Some examples of ways to mitigate avenues of approach for foot troops are to utilize tangle foot, punji trenches, and barbed wire (although I don’t recommend digging punji trenches until the actual fall of civilization seems imminent). 

A second concern in regards to avenues of approach is sometimes called combat engineering.  If we can control the route that our enemies take onto our property, then we have an opportunity to ensure that bad news awaits them at every turn.  For instance, we might deny access to a creek bed only to turn our enemy onto a driveway, knowing that we have the driveway covered by interlocking fields of fire (more on this in a minute).  The result would be a turkey shoot.  Game over.  We win. 

It is noteworthy that there is one exception to the avenues of approach rule.  Stand-off distance.  Dense vegetation acts as a natural speed break to advancing enemies in most situations.  Nobody in their right mind would advance through a jungle when a road is available if the tactical objective is speed, surprise, and violence of action.  Of course, having dense vegetation up to your perimeter, while it may slow enemy advances, will also serve to obscure your vision and make defensive adjustments harder.  For that reason, we need to clear a stand-off ring around our perimeter.

Clearing a stand-off ring is done by taking down trees, removing dense vegetation, and to the extent possible eliminating cover and concealment.  This will necessitate the enemy advancing over open ground in order to attack your secure zone, and should enable you a huge benefit in defending it.  In a perfect world, we would want to have a stand-off distance equal to the maximum effective range of our rifle, but I realize that this may not always be possible.  To any extent, some buffer is better than none when it comes to discouraging armed incursion.  People looking at that vast open field will think twice before bum rushing your perimeter. 

Interlocking fields of fire.  If you are fortunate enough to have defensive positions and people to man them, you should test your defensive positions to ensure that you have achieved interlocking fields of fire.  This means that the area of responsibility for one fox hole crosses over with that of the fox hole next to them, and that there are no gaps in your defenses.
 
Planning out your fields of fire serves several purposes.  First, it conserves ammunition by limiting a defender to a certain area of responsibility.  He doesn’t shoot at targets that are not right in front of him, and thus has a lower chance of wasting ammunition.  Second, the overall confidence of the defense force will be bolstered by the existence of a coherent plan.  Believe it or not, this is an important aspect of keeping morale high.  Finally, planning out your fields of fire ensures that you have checked all of the defensive boxes and that no bad guys are going to slip through the cracks.  I suggest using limiting stakes to mark off the areas of responsibility for each defensive position, and creating range cards with known distances to landmarks in their field of fire for quick, accurate engagement of targets. 

If you can follow those five conventions you will be in pretty good shape in terms of physical security of your provisions and housing.  It’s a little easier said than done, and it can be daunting if you are preparing your first defense plan.  You can feel free to contact me with questions, and I’ll do my best to get back with an answer.  I’ve done this sort of planning in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other locations throughout the world, so I’m pretty sure that you can also get it done in your neighborhood. 

Letter Re: Firearms Laws in England

Mr. Rawles:
A few years ago, my wife and I left our Texas ranch for a three month long hunting safari that took us from Africa to Scotland. We traveled with three rifles, a double in a large African caliber, a .458 Lott bolt, and .300 Winchester Magnum bolt light rifle. As we would transit Schiphol in the Netherlands both ways, I had to apply for two transit permits for the firearms and ammunition as well as for firearm permits in both Tanzania (a former British colony) and in Scotland. Even though I was a setting judge at the time, I had to obtain obligatory character references from the ‘high sheriff’ of the county where I resided. Of these, the transit permit was probably the most difficult as it was literally ‘Dutch’ and for some arcane bureaucratic reason, the office in Holland only turned on the facsimile machine during their operating hours. Stories are legend about expensive firearms being confiscated during transit of Holland and safaris ruined, so given the time delay between application and license, several communications were needed to ensure receipt of the application.

Upon arrival in Houston, we learned the outbound flight to Holland was delayed by one day.  With three month’s baggage and three rifles, we were stranded in Houston Hobby Airport.  Tiredly, we loaded everything on the tram and set off for the airport hotel. At the hotel, the manager advised we wouldn’t be allowed to keep the rifles in the room with us. I made quite a scene and demanded detailed receipts for the rifles that I valued in total at more than $80,000. The manager decided he didn’t want to be responsible for anything of that value so the rules were relaxed and we kept the rifles with us.  So much for the “hotel rules.” Due to the delay, our transit permit through Schiphol was out of date and there was no way to determine if the Dutch would seize the rifles.

We arrived in Africa exhausted following a 24 hour flight but happy to see our firearms. Tanzanian officials examined each rifle, checked barrel lengths and serial numbers against permits, and after a small gratuity, issued the firearm licenses. We had a great time in Africa successful shooting many species including several cape buffalo and a wonderful roan antelope on the last day. Of course that last shot delayed our departure from camp and everything was a mad rush again. We boarded KLM in our safari clothes, transited Schiphol to Edinburgh arriving in a snowstorm. Scottish authorities at the airport showed no interest whatsoever in the rifles or ammunition. Baggage and rifles were loaded into a Range Rover rental and off we went in search for our hotel where we would stay for a few days before driving up into the highlands for a stag hunt.

Dressed for equatorial Africa, we received more than a few curious stares in the hotel lobby. The proprietor wanted to see our rifle permits and again lock up the weapons. As he had what the British call a ‘proper’ storage facility and was willing to issue appropriate receipts, I readily released the rifles into his custody.  I overheard comments about ‘those crazy Texans’ as we walked away.

We enjoyed Edinburgh for a few days before departing to the highlands. Upon arrival at the hunting manor, a wonderful eighteenth century edifice, the rifles were unpacked and serial numbers again carefully checked against permits. I re-cleaned the rifles (always a good practice because of the possibility of temperature differential induced condensation during travel and need to check for travel related damage).

The barrels were separated from the receiver of the double rifle and each stored separately in two safes as were bolts from the other rifles and ammunition. The next day, a constable arrived to verify proper storage of the rifles. He counted the ammunition for the two heavy African rifles and commented those rifles were ‘too big to shoot here’ and further that the associated ammunition would be recounted upon leaving Scotland.

The next day we set out early in pursuit of highland stag. The professional hunter would not allow me to carry the .300 Win Mag (it would not be ‘proper’). Only when the game was sighted and animal selected, did he hand me the rifle. Quite a difference from Africa where we never went anywhere without our rifles or for that manner, anywhere else I have hunted.

Our Second Amendment freedom should be cherished. It is unique among the world’s nations. Sincerely, – Panhandle Rancher

Economics and Investing:

G.G. flagged this “must read” piece: Taxes Prompt More Americans to Renounce Citizenship

Also from G.G.:Gold bars now Italy’s fastest growing export: Italy’s exports rose last month, but only after they were boosted by a rush of gold ingots being shifted to Switzerland.

Jim Willie: Golden Eye of Hurricane

Tim Geithner Spills The Beans, U.S. Debt Crisis Looms
 
Globalization, Inflation & Taxes: 3 Key Factors That Will Destroy The Middle Class

Items from The Economatrix:

Zero Hedge reports: Central Banks Favour Gold as IMF Warns of “Collapse of Euro” and “Full Blown Panic in Financial Markets”

Insiders Tell Jim Sinclair $17 Trillion in Quantitative Easing Coming

Europe Will Collapse in May-June

US Roads and Bridges Being Built by Chinese Companies as American Economy Teeters on Collapse

G.G. suggested a piece by Simon Black wherein he discusses Senate Bill 1813–legislation creating passport controls and mandatory black boxes for new cars: Something is Wrong with This Picture.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Shamus H. sent this: The Power Pot. I wonder if they’ve been able to overcome the problem of TEG junctions burning out. (That has always been their weakness.)

   o o o

Ann Barnhardt’s speech at Liberty First. Warning: Her speech includes a bit of foul language.

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George S. sent a link to a fascinating video of the world’s ocean currents.

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F.J. sent this: Alexandria Chicken Coop and Run

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For those who like the British DPM camouflage pattern (which is great for most North American woodlands), SurvivalBlog reader A.P. spotted this bargain: British Military DPM 85 Jackets for $9.97 each. But be forewarned that these don’t come with the green fleece liners, and that the company has the matching trousers available only in size Medium.

Note from JWR:

Today we present another entry for Round 40 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo.

Second Prize: A.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol. It is a $439 value courtesy of Next Level Training. B.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. C.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, D.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials, and E.) two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value) and F.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), and E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 40 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Bugging Out, But to Where?, by Paddy O.

I read a lot of material in SurvivalBlog and several other similar sites about methods and means of bugging out if you live in a city or other area where it would be undesirable to live during some kind of calamity.  After seeing so much about this idea of waiting until the SHTF, or some other event that would necessitate leaving the area in which you live, I feel the need to weigh in and give the position of the person who’s already living in the area to which many of the city dwellers are being encouraged to bug out to.  I hope to offer a very swift kick in the seat to all those pondering the “bug out” issue.  This business of advising people about waiting until there’s a great calamity to leave the city has got to stop.
 
I cringe every time I see an article giving advice on how to make preparations to leave your city for a better place to ride out an economic calamity or other kind of disaster, man-made or otherwise.  My questions to all those pondering this issue are these: 1.) How convinced are you that you may need to “bug out” at some point in the future, and 2.) If you are at least mostly persuaded of the future need to bug out, then why haven’t you done it already? 
 
I realize that there can be myriad reasons why someone may feel unable to relocate even though they may want to.  You don’t want to move away from your family, your job, your kid’s school, your friends…You don’t want a longer commute, you’re underwater on your house, you like your house. The list goes on and on.  My guess, however, is that when the SHTF like so many of us are fully persuaded that it will, many of these things that now keep you from pulling up stakes and moving will drop distantly behind the desire to simply stay alive. 
 
If you believe in the crash what this web site and so many others are forecasting, get out now.  If you have to short sell your house and rent in the area that you plan to bug out to, then do so.  Don’t let a ding to your credit score or the “demotion” of going from homeowner to renter keep you from doing what you believe needs to be done.  Don’t let the tenure you have on the job keep you from making a wise and prudent decision.  If you don’t get out now, then plan on staying put.  If you refuse to make whatever sacrifices are necessary to relocate now while it is safe to do so, then harden your current domicile and settle in and ride it out. 
 
Post-SHTF, if you do succeed in escaping the city and reach the nearest rural like the one I live in, then what?  If you come to my town, what exactly am I supposed to do with you?   Are you coming empty-handed?  Do you have any skills that might make you a welcome addition to my community?  If the answer to those two questions is no, tell me exactly why I should welcome you.  “It’s the charitable thing to do”.  It certainly would be.  However, if being charitable to the empty-handed refugee means possibly starving my own family, for whom I have been diligently laying in store, then my being charitable to you may violate my own mandate to “provide for my own, specially those of my own house”.  If I do that, I’m worse than an infidel and have denied the faith (I Tim 5:8). 
 
No, it’s not at all that we in the rural areas are unkind, uncaring, uncharitable or unfriendly.  On the contrary, me and my neighbors are the kind of people you want to live near.  But if the cities are burning down, we will be overwhelmed by the influx of thousands refugees trying to escape to a safer place, which will inherently make the place they are escaping to less safer.  If you think you may have a mind to ever “bug out” then do it now, integrate yourself into the community and become a functioning part of it.  Learn the area and the climate and get started taking care of yourself and your family.  You’ll be miles ahead of those who waited. 
 
If your survival plan is to flee the city and live off the charity of others in the countryside, let me put this plainly; you’re going to die.  It’s not that there will be a lack of charity-on the contrary, in hard times, people can rise up and surprise you with how giving they can be.  But there just will not be enough to give.  Immediately post-SHTF, the amounts of most every vital commodity (gasoline, sugar, rice, beans, toilet paper, etc.) will be finite.  There won’t be any more coming, maybe not for a long, long time.  What I have may be all I will have for months or years.  And with my six kids, 2 kids in law, 2 parents and 2 siblings to try to care for, how charitable can I afford to be?
 
In Matthew 25, Jesus gives a parable of ten virgins, five of whom were wise and five of whom were foolish.  The five wise foresaw the need and made preparations (just like Proverbs 27:12 advises).  The five foolish, being in close proximity to the five wise, must have undoubtedly also foreseen the need, but chose not to make preparations.  In the end, the five foolish tried to borrow from the five wise, but the wise were wise enough to know that if they shared, there would have not been enough for everyone.  Read it folks.  Think about it.  And remember this key point; They were all virgins (good, godly people). They were just not all wise.  True wisdom is knowing your limitations.
 
Until last year, I lived in a rural area with a few acres, fruit trees, a garden, chickens, and lots of trees for firewood.  A defensible place too.  But believing like I do in the eminent crash, I felt it was not good enough.  We have since moved even further out into the hills to a larger plot of land that is much better suited to a self-sustaining life.  The new house is larger so we can take in more of my family members who live in places that will be undesirable WTSHTF.  Every decision I have made for the last several years has been with the goal in mind of taking care of as many of my family as possible for as long a period of time post-crash. 
 
Make the move now.  Don’t wait another month to decide.  If you read this site or any others like it, and you live in an urban area, get out now.  Make the preparations.  Do the research, retrain yourself in another field of work if you have to, and relocate.  If you read this site and others like it, your excuses for why you can’t…will not cut it post-crash.  I know many will think I’m unreasonable or unkind, or just plain ignorant of how difficult for some what I am suggesting may be.  I’m not an ignorant or unkind man.  I’m an associate pastor, a marriage and family counselor, and I give multiple thousands of dollars and hundreds of hours a year to help others.  And this is why I’m writing this piece now.  To help someone get off the fence and make a choice.  Decide to do it, or decide not to.  
 
There are three kinds of people when speaking of Emergency Preparedness; 1-those like JWR, myself and many others who are already prepared, 2-those who watch American Idol and play video games all day and are completely oblivious to what’s happening in the world around them, and 3-those who are right in the middle of the first two.  It’s those middle folks I’m worried about and talking to right now.  The ones who say “I’d like to prepare but…” or “I’d like to move to a rural area but…”  Because they are semi-aware and watching, these are the ones who will be the first out of the city and heading to the hills with little or nothing to sustain themselves but the hope that the folks “in them thar hills” will be ready for them.  We won’t be.  Even the most prepared among us will have our hands full when the gas pumps stop working, the electricity shuts off and the trucks stop rolling.
 
Either you make the move now and get settled on a little homestead in the country-whatever it costs you, or settle in where you are.  Store up some food, get some guns-even a used .22-and figure out how you can hide out where you are and ride out the storm.  It won’t be easy.  It will be very rough for a long time.  Even if you can move to a different home in the city you live in that has a more defensible scenario-one with a basement you can seal off and conceal-do it.  Leaving the city during a calamity will be at least as dangerous as staying put.  Know your neighbors.  If your neighbors are creeps, move and get some better ones.  If you live in apartment, get out.  Rent a house with like-minded friends and split the costs of preparing if you can’t do it alone. 
 
I will no doubt be accused of being cold hearted in telling people not to flee to my area.  If you show up on my doorstep, I’ll give you what I can-probably a Rubbermaid container of rice and a gallon of water.  I’ve already stockpiled lots of containers for this very thing.  But then what will you do?  Not everybody here can or will do that.  And even if they could, how long can you live like that?  The idea of going to national forest and living off the land is ludicrous.  I won’t even begin to list the hundreds of reasons why that won’t work. 
 
In looking at the current condition the world is in, we may still have 6 to 12 months before TSHTF, but it WILL HTF.  Use the time you have wisely.  Do something to become more prepared every single day.  Pray for wisdom.  James 1:5 says we can do that and God will give it to us liberally.

Letter Re: Mortgages–WTSHF, Inflation and Deflation

Hello Mr. Rawles,
First of all, thank you for all that you do.  Your books and your site are invaluable information to me.  They have helped me to get pretty-well prepared. 
 
I have a question about debt.  Every survival type that I have listened to or read says “get out of debt”.  I am out of debt, but I am considering obtaining a small mortgage in order to be able to purchase a place that will be a better refuge location for me and my family.  (Unfortunately, it will have to be on the east side of the Mississippi River.)
 
What I don’t understand is what will happen to mortgages when the economy collapses.  Surely they (if there is a ‘they’ then) can’t foreclose on everyone.  Won’t people who are heavily in debt just have their debt evaporate with the collapse of the dollar?  Can you explain or link me to a good explanation of what will happen financially in our country when the dollar collapses?
 
Thank you so very much, – M. in North Carolina

JWR Replies: I concur that installment debt from any banking institution is a bad thing. Granted, there may be mass inflation ahead, and you’d be paying off your mortgage with cheaper dollars. But you can’t count on that. Inflation is just one potential outcome. Another possibility is the prospect of continuing house price declines and a further deteriorating job market, as we slide into a 1930s-style deflationary depression. That will mean even more layoffs and more foreclosures. A third possible outcome is a total collapse of the economy and a temporary dissolution of governmental authority. But the chance of that is quite small. (It might appeal to some in the “There’s No Government Like No Government” crowd, but the chances of that happening are slim.) The two most tenacious life forms on Earth are cockroaches and bureaucrats.

In the next few years, some of the risks of mortgage debt will be: 1.) Continued deflation in residential real estate. 2.) Higher property taxes. 3.) Higher interest rates, and 3.) A “muddle through” situation, where government is still functioning at the county, state and Federal levels. (Their services may drop off to marginal levels, but they will keep on taxing and overseeing foreclosures. How charming.)

The situation that economist John Mauldin refers to as a “Muddle Through Economy” would be traumatic for any mortgage holder who loses his job. Therefore, I recommend that if you must borrow money to buy a retreat-worthy home that you borrow the money from a family member rather than from a bank.