Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at some more grain crop yield and price forecasts. (See the Commodities section.)

Precious Metals:

Central banks maintain their appetite for gold.

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Michael Ballanger: We’re at the Home Stretch.

Economy & Finance:

BofA Warns of Looming Unemployment Shock, Recommends Selling Stock Rallies.

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America’s Insolvency Is Mandatory. (Thanks to D.S. for the link.)

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Reader H.L. sent us this: Rail workers speak out after Biden forces unions to accept deal: ‘He turned his back’.

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From the left-wing MSN: More Americans Leave the Workforce as Participation Rate Drops Again.

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Michael Burry says the US economy will suffer a multiyear recession. He sees no way for authorities to end the downturn early and warns consumers will virtually exhaust their savings soon, tanking the economy.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“Government is force, pure and simple. There’s no way to sugar-coat that. And because government is force, it will attract the worst elements of society – people who want to use government to avoid having to earn their living and to avoid having to persuade others to accept their ideas voluntarily.” – Harry Browne

Preparedness Notes for Sunday — December 4, 2022

December 4th is the birthday of Gregory “Pappy” Boyington, (born 1912) an AVG “Flying Tiger” volunteer pilot for the Chinese Nationalist government, WWII Marine Corps aviator, and Medal of Honor recipient. (He died January 11, 1988.) A proto-Redoubter, Pappy Boyington was born in Couer d’Alene, Idaho and was raised in Spokane, Washington.  Couer d’Alene, Idaho’s airport is named in his honor.

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SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

Today we present another entry for Round 104 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. The photovoltaic power specialists at Quantum Harvest LLC  are providing a store-wide 10% off coupon. Depending on the model chosen, this could be worth more than $2000.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any of their one, two, or three-day course (a $1,095 value),
  3. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  4. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  5. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
  6. Two sets of The Civil Defense Manual, (in two volumes) — a $193 value — kindly donated by the author, Jack Lawson.

Second Prize:

  1. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three-day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  2. A SIRT STIC AR-15/M4 Laser Training Package, courtesy of Next Level Training, that has a combined retail value of $679
  3. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun. There is no paperwork required for delivery of pre-1899 guns into most states, making them the last bastion of firearms purchasing privacy!

Third Prize:

  1. Three sets each of made-in-USA regular and wide-mouth reusable canning lids. (This is a total of 300 lids and 600 gaskets.) This prize is courtesy of Harvest Guard (a $270 value)
  2. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  3. A transferable $150 FRN purchase credit from Elk Creek Company, toward the purchase of any pre-1899 antique gun.

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More than $750,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 104 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Thinking Outside the Aquarium: A Different View of Government Force

Much like a fish in a small aquarium, the citizens of modern-day nations have a distorted view of the world around them, and their relative freedom. They’ve never known a space any larger than the walls of their fish tank. From their perspective, the aquarium constitutes the limits of their world, and it is the only life that they can imagine.

I’m penning this essay in SurvivalBlog to encourage my readers to take a step back and think about the very nature of government — all governments, at all levels. Of the 195 nations on Earth, all but a few of them have much the same to offer their citizenries. The inhabitants of the vast majority of nations can only conceive of life within the constraints imposed upon them by their respective governments.

In essence, governments are like organized crime gangs, that go around collecting “protection” money.  They are simply better organized, have larger and more organized force backing them up, and have a facade of legitmacy. But in the end, they are still mafia-like gangs, albeit with cops, courts, and fancy flags.Continue reading“Thinking Outside the Aquarium: A Different View of Government Force”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“And you hath he quickened, who were dead in trespasses and sins;

Wherein in time past ye walked according to the course of this world, according to the prince of the power of the air, the spirit that now worketh in the children of disobedience:

Among whom also we all had our conversation in times past in the lusts of our flesh, fulfilling the desires of the flesh and of the mind; and were by nature the children of wrath, even as others.

But God, who is rich in mercy, for his great love wherewith he loved us,

Even when we were dead in sins, hath quickened us together with Christ, (by grace ye are saved;)

And hath raised us up together, and made us sit together in heavenly places in Christ Jesus:

That in the ages to come he might shew the exceeding riches of his grace in his kindness toward us through Christ Jesus.

For by grace are ye saved through faith; and that not of yourselves: it is the gift of God:

Not of works, lest any man should boast.

For we are his workmanship, created in Christ Jesus unto good works, which God hath before ordained that we should walk in them.

Wherefore remember, that ye being in time past Gentiles in the flesh, who are called Uncircumcision by that which is called the Circumcision in the flesh made by hands;

That at that time ye were without Christ, being aliens from the commonwealth of Israel, and strangers from the covenants of promise, having no hope, and without God in the world:

But now in Christ Jesus ye who sometimes were far off are made nigh by the blood of Christ.

For he is our peace, who hath made both one, and hath broken down the middle wall of partition between us;

Having abolished in his flesh the enmity, even the law of commandments contained in ordinances; for to make in himself of twain one new man, so making peace;

And that he might reconcile both unto God in one body by the cross, having slain the enmity thereby:

And came and preached peace to you which were afar off, and to them that were nigh.

For through him we both have access by one Spirit unto the Father.

Now therefore ye are no more strangers and foreigners, but fellowcitizens with the saints, and of the household of God;

And are built upon the foundation of the apostles and prophets, Jesus Christ himself being the chief corner stone;

In whom all the building fitly framed together groweth unto an holy temple in the Lord:

In whom ye also are builded together for an habitation of God through the Spirit.” – Ephesians 2 (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Saturday — December 3, 2022

On December 3,1775, the first official US flag (the Grand Union Flag) was raised aboard the naval vessel USS Alfred.

On December 3, 1944, the Greek Civil War broke out in a newly-liberated Greece, between communists and royalists.

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We are pleased to welcome a new banner advertiser: SurvivalFrog. They sell a broad line of survival gear and storage food, at great prices. Presently, they are running some pre-Christmas specials. Take a look!

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Today’s guest article first appeared in the Alt-Market.us blog. It is reposted with permission.

Why China is a Beta Test for The New World Order, by Brandon Smith

For over a decade there has been an open globalist obsession with the Chinese governmental model – A love affair, if you will. Many top proponents of global centralization including Henry Kissinger and George Soros have praised China in the past and hinted that the communist country is burgeoning into a major player within the New World Order. Soros expressed this exact sentiment way back in 2009, around the time that China began courting the IMF and issuing trillions in Yuan based treasury debt in order to join their global currency initiative.

Several years later, China was inducted into the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket. The CCP now avidly supports the creation of a new global currency system with the IMF in control.

This is a reality I have been writing about for many years: China does NOT stand in opposition to global centralization under the control of western oligarchs. All they want is a prominent seat at the table when the “Great Reset” kicks off and total centralization begins. But the above information only suggests an economic relationship between China and the globalists. Does the alliance go even further than that?Continue reading“Why China is a Beta Test for The New World Order, by Brandon Smith”

Editors’ Prepping Progress

To be prepared for a crisis, every Prepper must establish goals and make long-term and short-term plans. In this column, the SurvivalBlog editors review their week’s prep activities and planned prep activities for the coming week. These range from healthcare and gear purchases to gardening, ranch improvements, bug out bag fine-tuning, and food storage. This is something akin to our Retreat Owner Profiles, but written incrementally and in detail, throughout the year.  We always welcome you to share your own successes and wisdom in your e-mailed letters. We post many of those –or excerpts thereof — in this column, in the Odds ‘n Sods Column, and in the Snippets column. Let’s keep busy and be ready!

Jim Reports:

We had a fairly quiet week. With about 26 inches of snow now on the ground, and more coming, I’ve had to plow snow several times. If the weather pattern this autumn is any indication, it looks like we will be in for a long, snowy winter.

I’m continuing to make progress on my workshop remodeling projects. On Thursday, I installed a staircase. Next, I plan on decking the second-story floor with 3/4-inch tongue and groove plywood. Then it will be time for the second-story wall construction, with paneling and then shelving.

I set up one of the grow lights in our guest bedroom, to keep some winter greens growing.

Avalanche Lily Reports:

Dear Readers,
This week, we had a huge snowstorm that dumped just about two feet of snow!  Beautiful! Generally, we don’t receive this much snow until the end of December.  Not at the end of November and first day of December.  It has been a lot of work with shoveling paths, stairs, and entrances to animal sheds, and plowing.

A funny horse story:  While I was using the straw broom to brush snow off our SUV, the horses were milling around me, watching me and “asking” me to give them their afternoon meal. As I finished brushing off the sides of the car and the roof sections I could reach, I paused and held the broom across my arms with the brush towards S. our dominant horse, not on purpose.  I was trying to decide if I really wanted to be done.  There was still snow on the center of the roof and I am not tall enough to reach it and I was looking at it wondering if I should climb up there? While I looked at the snow and debated in my mind.  S. grabbed the broom in her mouth and tried to eat it!  As I tried to pull it away from her we had a momentary tug o war.  I was slightly startled that she thought that it was a food source. I never thought that a broom — that I think as a tool — would look like food to the horse after she had just watched me use it as a tool to clean off the SUV.  Interesting thought process…

M. our male cat and H. our young dog have been playing together in a very cute way. M will get up on the back of a recliner and face the dog who is trying to gently mouth/bite him. He will then with a look of boredom will gently bat with his paw at the dog’s nose. They will do this over and over again to stave off winter confinement boredom. So cute.

I walked and worked-out vigorously with bands and weights three times this week.  I needed days off between these workouts to let my muscles heal.

I continue to study Isaiah in Hebrew and now am in chapter 9.

Isaiah 9:6-7:

For unto us a child is born, unto us a son is given: and the government shall be upon his shoulder: and his name shall be called Wonderful, Counsellor, The mighty God, The everlasting Father, The Prince of Peace.
כִּי־יֶלֶד יֻלַּד־לָנוּ בֵּן נִתַּן־לָנוּ וַתְּהִי הַמִּשְׂרָה עַל־שִׁכְמוֹ וַיִּקְרָא שְׁמוֹ פֶּלֶא יוֹעֵץ אֵל גִּבּוֹר אֲבִי עַד שַׂר־שָׁלֽוֹם׃
Of the increase of his government and peace there shall be no end, upon the throne of David, and upon his kingdom, to order it, and to establish it with judgment and with justice from henceforth even for ever. The zeal of the LORD of hosts will perform this.
 לםרבה הַמִּשְׂרָה וּלְשָׁלוֹם אֵֽין־קֵץ עַל־כִּסֵּא דָוִד וְעַל־מַמְלַכְתּוֹ לְהָכִין אֹתָהּ וּֽלְסַעֲדָהּ בְּמִשְׁפָּט וּבִצְדָקָה מֵעַתָּה וְעַד־עוֹלָם קִנְאַת יְהוָה צְבָאוֹת תַּעֲשֶׂה־זֹּֽאת

Take the time to listen to Glenn Beck’s Dream.

May you all have a very blessed and safe week.

– Avalanche Lily, Rawles

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As always,  please share and send e-mails of your own successes and hard-earned wisdom and we will post them in the “Snippets” column this coming week.  We want to hear from you.

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“For I know the thoughts that I think toward you, saith the Lord, thoughts of peace, and not of evil, to give you an expected end.
Then shall ye call upon me, and ye shall go and pray unto me, and I will hearken unto you.
And ye shall seek me, and find me, when ye shall search for me with all your heart.” – Jeremiah 29:11-13  (KJV)

Preparedness Notes for Friday — December 2, 2022

On December 2nd, 1823, what became known as the Monroe Doctrine was declared by President James Monroe to Congress outlining a foreign policy initiative that forbade European interference in the American hemisphere but also asserted U.S. neutrality in regard to future European conflicts.

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Today we present a guest article by Arkadiusz Sieroń, selected by JWR. It was first published by Sunshine Profits, and is reposted with permission.

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We are now seeking entries for Round 104 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. More than $750,000 worth of prizes have been awarded since we started running this contest. Round 104 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

 

Stagflation: The Worse for Us, the Better for Gold, by Arkadiusz Sieroń

Stagflation is coming – and it could make the 1970s look like a walk in the park.

As you’ve probably noticed, I expect a recession next year, and I’m not alone, as this has become the baseline scenario for many financial institutions and analysts. Even the DSGE model used by the New York Fed shows an 80% probability of a hard landing (defined as four-quarter GDP growth dipping below -1%) over the next ten quarters. Reasons? Inflation and the Fed’s tightening cycle. The history is clear: whenever inflation has been above 5%, the Fed’s hikes in interest rates have always resulted in an economic downturn. The key yield curve has recently inverted, which means that the most reliable recessionary indicator has started to flash red light.

Although the coming recession could decrease the rate of inflation more than I assume, given the slowdown in money supply growth, I believe that high inflation (although lower compared to the current level) will continue through 2023 and perhaps also in 2024 due to the excess increase in money supply during the pandemic. It means that recession is likely to be accompanied by high inflation, forming a powerful yet negative combo, namely, stagflation.

If the calls for stagflation are correct, it suggests that the coming recession won’t be mild or short-lived, as it’s not easy to combat it. In the early 1980s, Paul Volcker had to raise the federal funds rate to above 17%, and later even 19% (see the chart below), to defeat inflation, which triggered a painful double-dip recession. During stagflation, there is a lot of uncertainty in the economy, and monetary policy becomes much more complicated, as the central bank doesn’t know whether to focus on fighting inflation, which could become entrenched, or rising unemployment. In a response to the Great Recession or the Great Lockdown, the Fed could ease its monetary policy aggressively to address declining aggregate demand and neutralize deflationary pressure. But if inflation remains high, Powell’s hands are tied.Continue reading“Stagflation: The Worse for Us, the Better for Gold, by Arkadiusz Sieroń”

Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the nascent drop in the U.S. real estate market. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

Newmont: The Bottom Is In For Gold.

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Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of U.S. dollars.

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Report: China Suspected of Stockpiling Gold to ‘Cut Greenback Dependence’.

Economy & Finance:

St. Louis Fed: Weaker GDP Growth, Inflation Uncertainty Dim U.S. Economic Outlook.

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8 Market and Economic Predictions for 2023.

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The Looming Threat of a Rail Strike is Back. Here’s How a Potential Strike Could Affect You.  JWR Says: Top off your fuel tanks and your larder, now.

Continue reading“Economics & Investing For Preppers”

The Editors’ Quote of the Day:

“All nature has come to expect from God a sense of orderliness. Whatever God does carries with it His fingerprint. And in the world around us His fingerprint of orderliness is evident to anybody who is honest with the facts. If you look at nature, you will discover a mathematical exactness. Without this precision, the entire world would be in utter confusion. One plus one always equals two no matter what part of the universe you happen to be in. And the laws of nature operate in beautiful harmony, a harmony that is ordered by God Himself.” – Aiden Wilson Tozer

Preparedness Notes for Thursday — December 1, 2022

This is the birthday of novelist Rex Stout (1886–1975). Rex Stout was the brother of Ruth Stout, the gardener who wrote about no till, year-round mulching, organic gardening in her book Gardening Without Work: For the Aging, the Busy, and the Indolent.

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Today we present the first entry for Round 104 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. Round 104 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how-to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

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But first, here is the judging on Round 103 of the contest.