Letter Re: Rapid Progression of the Geomagnetic North Pole?

Jim:
Is it true, what the rumors have been saying about the [magnetic] north pole shifting 161 miles in just the past six months? can that be true? Is it possible that there will be a pole reversal in the next few years? Should I be worried? – Elaine T.

JWR Replies: This topic has been discussed before in SurvivalBlog, but mostly vis-a-vis the need to keep maps updated with current magnetic declination data. (The difference between magnetic north and true north.)

The geomagnetic north pole moves laterally because of shifts deep in the Earth’s core. It is presently in far northern Canada, but it is gradually shifting to the northwest and it is presumed that it will probably be in Siberia in a decade or two. (Although it is notable that the auroral toroid is pushing more toward the southeast.) Many credible sources, like Polar Endeavour, show the “walking” or “wandering” (or more properly “progressing”) of the pole position at about 35 miles per year. Wikipedia states: “Over the past 150 years the poles have moved westward at a rate of 0.05° to 0.1° per year, with little net north or south motion.” National Geographic confirms that the movement of the pole has accelerated since 1989 to as much as 37 miles per year. (Ditto for progression of the antipodal geomagnetic south pole, though it is not tracked as consistently.) This is confirmed by NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC.) But I can’t find any credible source that mentions a figure anywhere near “161 miles in six months”! And the web site you mentioned shows an inverted map of pole progression that might lead a casual observer to believe that the geomagnetic north pole is shifting to the south.

Based on an iterative method that relies on historical ship’s logs, it has been determined that the geomagnetic north pole actually shifted southeastward from around 1600 to the 1830s. But since then it has been progressing in a more northwesterly direction. The chances that the geomagnetic pole will shift below 68 degrees of latitude or above 88 degrees of latitude in this millennium are miniscule. Granted, the longitudinal shifts could be quite large (because of Great Circle geometry, the closer that the geomagnetic pole progresses toward 90 degrees), but the substantive issue is the measure of latitude shifts. We need to be content to sticking to observable science. Let’s leave emotion and hyperbole out of the conversation.

Full geomagnetic reversal has not occurred in recorded history. But geologists who are believers in Ancient Earth theories assert that several polarity reversals have been recorded geologically in rock formations at the mid-ocean tectonic ridges, and that these reversals happen roughly once every 450,000 years. Citing some geologists who have studied the geologic record, Wikipedia states: “The Earth’s field has alternated between periods of normal polarity, in which the direction of the field was the same as the present direction, and reverse polarity, in which the field was the opposite. These periods are called chrons.” It has also recently been asserted by some German scientists that a brief reversal–called a “geomagnetic excursion“–lasting only a few hundred years may have taken place 41,000 years ago.

Could there be a magnetic pole reversal in our lifetime? Not likely. Should we be worried? I don’t think so. I’m much, much more worried about the statist Democrats shifting out of the White House. (Or worse yet, failing to shift.) I’m also concerned about incipient cataclysmic shifts in the value of paper currencies. Not magnetic pole shifts!

My advice: be very leery about what you hear on late night radio shows or what you see on web pages that don’t cite any reliable references. (There are even some idiotic cranks out there who claim that the physical tilt of the Earth has shifted! My GPS receiver tells me otherwise.)

Secure Storage Facilities Planned in The American Redoubt

Todd Savage of Survival Retreat Consulting is developing two secure storage projects in the American Redoubt–one in north Idaho and one in Northwestern Montana. The facilities will give private members access to several storage options to store their preparedness gear until they can relocate. The undisclosed locations will feature various sizes of climate controlled vaults and safe rooms, featuring underground bunker construction and redundant security features. These facility can eliminate a prepper’s quandary: having all their crucial preps stored in one location with no ability to move it to their safe haven quickly.

A retrofitted facility should be available for occupancy in September of 2013 and a larger newly-constructed facility should be available for storage in August of 2014. These facilities will be bonded. For security reasons, the exact locations of the facilities will only be revealed to clients once they have signed a contract. These high end security and climate-controlled units will cost more monthly than typical commercial storage spaces. (Which are typically not climate controlled and offer only marginal security in locations that are widely known to the public.)

If you have interest in short or long term secure storage options for some of your gear, then please contact Todd Savage through his web site. 

Recipe of the Week:

C. in Florence’s Hippo Valley Moon-Dae

Here is an old Rhodesian home cooking recipe that some might find enjoyable. I have changed it by removing brand names from Rhodesia. i.e. Daribord Royal and also (other than in the title,) Hippo Valley Citrus. Sadly those companies no longer have meaning that they once did in my life.)
 
Hippo Valley Moon-Dae

3 large eggs (Separate)
3 tablespoons honey
1 tablespoon gelatine
1/4 cup cold water
1/2 cup cream
1 tin of grapefruit segments (or 1 cup grapefruit juice  and one peeled segmented grapefruit chopped up)
 
Beat together egg yolks and honey until thick and lemon colored. Dissolve gelatine in water. Put 1 cup of grapefruit juice into a double boiler with dissolved gelatine. Add the egg mixture slowly and stir until mixture thickens. Turn off heat. Leave to cool then fold in stiffly beaten egg whites and the cream. Pour Mixture into a white mould and set in the refrigerator. Turn onto a serving platter and surround with the drained grapefruit segments.

Chef’s Notes:

For me this serves just one, but you can share to with 4 or 5 people.

Useful Recipe and Cooking Links:

Rhodesian Recipes

Canned Fruit Recipes

Do you have a favorite recipe that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers? Please send it via e-mail. Thanks!

Odds ‘n Sods:

Recently posted by the great video blogger Wranglerstar: Home-made Hydraulic Ram Pump

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There are just two days left in Camping Survival’s sale on Wise brand storage foods, with deep discounts. The sale ends on June 18, 2013.

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Census: Rural US loses population for first time

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The folks at Directive 21 mentioned that they have received more than 1,000 copies of the book Making the Best of Basics, and they have them sale priced at just $24.95 with free shipping. That is about half of what they cost at Amazon.

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Yet another ill-advised foreign intervention: US To Arm Syrian Rebels. Has anyone noticed how many radical Muslim groups our government has backed, ever since the Clinton Administration? These forays rarely end well. Just look at the newly-installed governments and their policies, post facto. OBTW, fellow blogger Tamara of the witty View From The Porch had some pointed observations about the United States arming the Al Qaeda proxy jihadists in Syria. My own observations: Here in Oceania it is easy to get confused about who the enemy du jour is. Are we fighting Eastasia or Eurasia this year? Let me try to get this straight: Is Al Qaeda our ally enemy ally? In the 1980s, while Russia was busily carpet bombing Afghanistan, our CIA cowboys were copiously funding and arming Al Qaeda. But then, after 9/11/2001 Bin Laden’s buckaroos were declared the absolute persona non grata bad boys of the planet and thence became multiple JDAM award winners. But, wait! Fast forward 12 years… and now we are about to arm Al Qaeda in Syria. (But not invade Syria, because that might be considered undiplomatically rude and might enrage the Muslims.) Pardon me for being confused. I suppose that I need to re-read Eric Blair’s textbook again, catch up on the updates to Newspeak and get back in the BHO-approved Ministry of Peace Groupthink. (I’d hate to unwittingly commit a thoughtcrime.)

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"We know that no one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it. Power is not a means; it is an end. One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship. The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power." – George Orwell, 1984

Notes from JWR:

Today is the birthday of John Enoch Powell (born 1912, died 8 February 1998.) He was one of the very few military men to rise from enlisted Private to Brigadier General. Similarly, in the US military, Nathan Bedford Forrest enlisted as a Private and advanced to the rank of Lieutenant General of the Confederate Army during the U.S. Civil War. (His postwar career was, ahem, less distinguished.) Chesty Puller did the same in the U.S. Marine Corps. Likewise, U.S. Army General Tommy Franks began his Army career as a Private in 1965 and went on to eventually wear four stars, as did Admiral Jeremy Michael Borda, advancing from USN E-1 to USN O-10. (From Seaman to Admiral and Chief of Naval Operations.) There have been a few such examples, but not very many. (Special thanks to SurvivalBlog reader George S. for mentioning this birth date and the similarity in the service of Forrest, Franks and Borda.)

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Today we present another entry for Round 47 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course. (A $1,195 value.) B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), F.) Two BirkSun.com photovoltaic backpacks (one Level, and one Atlas, both black), with a combined value of $275, G.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and H.) A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com. The current value of this roll is at least $225.

Second Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. C.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. D.) $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P.), E.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials and F.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value. E.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value), and F.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 47 ends on July 31st so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Prepping For Seniors, by Retired Rev.

I became aware of the need for prepping too late to have the advantages associated with youth.  Seniors are already dealing with issues of declining physical prowess, declining health and a growing sense of mortality.  To add prepping to the list of concerns seemed more than a bit overwhelming but given the realities of our day, prepping slowly became an unavoidable necessity as I began to understand that the economic path on which our nation is traveling is clearly becoming unsustainable and is getting worse, not better.

There was also the additional concern – shared by preppers of any age – of convincing my dear wife that my fears were well-founded and that prepping was seriously necessary if we were to have a chance to survive TEOTWAWKI.  So the first challenge to overcome when contemplating prepping as a senior is the same challenge as for younger preppers:  Becoming convinced that there is serious trouble ahead that will likely destroy the support systems on which we have all become far too dependent. 

For me, that reality began to come home to me as I watched the unfolding of the current administration’s agenda to abandon private enterprise as an economic model and move toward a more socialistic, European model.  It still puzzles me that we can easily observe the disintegration of the economic well-being of European nations on our evening new broadcasts, and then decide to emulate them ourselves.  Human nature is a strange thing!  Regardless of the reasons, it became clear to me that there is no will to rectify the situation in Washington and that we are rushing pell-mell toward some sort of inevitable financial Armageddon.  Therefore, the only reasonable path for me was to begin prepping in earnest despite my age of 66 years.

At first my wife was not open to the idea of prepping at all.  Women don’t like their “nesting” instincts messed with and to assert that all that we have come to depend on (Social Security, pensions, health care systems, investments, and the like), might well come to an end in the reasonably near future, was and is very difficult for her to deal with.  It was understandable.  So, my initial efforts at raising her awareness consisted of providing a running commentary on the evening news.  As things in Europe began to deteriorate into economic chaos, I would just point out that if we think that we are immune to such things here, we’d better think again!  Then, when President Obama was re-elected for his second term, I turned to my wife and said, “Honey, I’m sorry if this makes you uncomfortable, but now we really do need to get serious about our prepping.”  The economic mess that has been created was not going to be addressed by the Obama administration.

Reading was essential to my preparation for prepping.  The first book that influenced me was 77 Days in September, by Ray Gorham.  This was a tale of a man on a business trip to Houston whose plane crashed on take off due to an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack on the United States.  It chronicled his trip walking home to northwest Montana, and was a primer to cultural breakdown.  Additionally, I read James Wesley Rawles, Patriots, which served as a wealth of resources for prepping and was a whopping good story.  I couldn’t get my wife to read either one because they were both just too scary, but they helped me get prepping into focus for my family and I.

Another influence in raising my awareness was information from a friend of mine who subscribes to Richard Maybury’s Early Warning Report.  Mr. Maybury is a combination historian and economist whose writings are both eloquent and pointed respecting how history intersects with economics and whose writings were often the stuff of Ron Paul campaign speeches on the topics.  The subscription to Maybury’s publication is a bit pricey, but worth the investment.

My wife was still not really on board (the contemplation of economic chaos was just too unpleasant to deal with for her), so I determined that I would begin prepping on my own simply because it is my responsibility to provide for my wife, (our daughter is grown and gone), whether or not she approved of my efforts and would willingly suffer whatever consequences may come from that.

As retired senior citizens, there are things to be considered in prepping that younger people don’t need to consider to the same degree.  Living in the wilderness at a remote retreat simply isn’t as realistic an option for seniors no matter how tempting that choice may be.  Health care needs especially come into play and the effort it takes for relocation to such locales is almost beyond our emotional and physical abilities.  This was particularly complicated for us because after 40 years of married life, we had finally retired and moved to our retirement home in northern Colorado, near Fort Collins.  We had often joked that the next box out of our house had better have one of us in it!  So for us (and I believe for most senior citizens), prepping is a “bug in” proposition. 

We have some things going for us in our location.  We live in a small town of about 3,000 people.  It is mostly a bedroom community for Fort Collins, Loveland, and Greeley, Colorado.  Additionally, we are not next to I-25 but about several miles east of that major thoroughfare.  We are about an hour north of Denver which is a cause for some concern, but are hopeful that most desperate refugees would turn west from I-25 toward Fort Collins rather than east toward the open prairies.  Our community is likely small enough to get organized, but I don’t see that happening until the proverbial stuff hits the fan and they are forced to do so. 

The problem with a bedroom community is that it doesn’t really see itself as a community to any great degree so it will be necessary to try to identify some like-minded folks prior to the collapse to form a cadre of leadership with which to offer our community some guidance whenever things “go south”.  It will be a difficult place to defend as we sit out on the prairie with the usual mile section grids that come with that.  Additionally, while some natural water sources are present, most are connected to irrigation canals, reservoirs, and the like, while the municipal water supply is connected to a water tower which requires electricity to pump water into it.  Water is always a big issue when you live in the rain shadow of the Rockies.  Therefore, I have begun to store water in larger quantities in house and garage.

With respect to food preparation, I have convinced my wife that having a year’s supply of food is just a practical thing to do if there is any chance that things could get rough – the Social Security and pension checks could stop coming, and the panic following an economic collapse might quickly empty the grocery store shelves.  So I opted for a two-pronged approach.  First, there was the purchase of some long-term foods that stored essentially longer than I am likely to stay alive.  Here I examined the “Mormon Four”:  wheat, honey/sugar, dry milk, and salt.  These were basic staples that may not be all that tasty, would keep us alive and I wouldn’t need to worry about expiration dates except for the dry milk.  There are some local grain elevators near us who sell wheat in bulk, but the grain has not been thoroughly cleaned and my wife wasn’t very excited about that.  So the best source I could find for nice, clean wheat for the price was at www.store.lds.org.  I am not a Mormon, but I do recognize that these folks likely know more about food storage than just about anyone out there.  So 600 lbs. of wheat was ordered (hard red, and hard white) and stored away for safekeeping.  Likewise, a hand grain mill was ordered.  It will give you a workout, but it nicely converts wheat to useable flour.  I purchased a Wonder Mill Jr., grain mill from www.onlygrainmills.com, and it works just fine.  Additionally, quantities of salt, sugar/honey, and dry milk were purchased and stored in the usual white buckets, but since my wife can’t open the usual plastic lids on the buckets, I opted for splurging on some gamma lids that seal nicely, but unscrew for easy access.  Arthritis takes it toll!

The second prong of my food preps involved the purchasing of food items from Sam’s Club, and the local grocery stores with emphasis being given to acquiring a year’s supply of such goods and using them on a first purchased, first eaten rotational basis.  We built some storage closets in our basement, installed shelving, and stocked them full of goods paying attention, whenever possible, to finding items with extended expiration dates.  We have also planted three raised gardens in our back yard to produce as much produce on our own as we can and have purchased long-term, heritage seeds to keep for the future.

The next real life senior concern to be addressed was prescription drugs.  Both my wife and I are on cholesterol statin drugs, and blood pressure medication as are nearly every elderly couple I know.  What to do about that?  Here I want to carefully evaluate how seriously we need these medications and seek to acquire a surplus of them.  If possible I hope to convince my doctor to prescribe a years supply of these medications.  If he refuses, then it is my plan to see how much of the medications I can take and still not see a significant jump in either my cholesterol “score” or my blood pressure.  Perhaps I can take the meds every other day or every third day instead of daily and save the rest.  Failing to succeed in those efforts means that when things get serious and no further prescriptions can be obtained, then I will take whatever prescription medications I have and cut them in half.  Then I will take half of those cut in half, and cut them in half again.  The object is to wean myself off of them gradually rather than take them as prescribed and then stop cold turkey.  Blood pressure medications and cholesterol drugs are preventative meds, thus, it simply may become necessary to let things play out as they will if they become unavailable. 

In addition to medications, the elderly need to consider establishing a circle of friends and/or family who live in close proximity.  Eventually, us old folks get so old that we just can’t get things done on our own.  I’ve walked through these things with my own parents so I know what I am speaking about first hand.  Aging is simply one of the most challenging aspects of life and there is no such thing as the “Golden Years”.  Death does not scare me nor does it frighten my wife.  We are Christian people (I am a retired Lutheran pastor), and we know exactly where we are headed when we die and frankly can’t wait to make the trip!  What doesn’t excite us is the process of dying.  If we end up in a situation in which the usual artificial supports (medications, hospitals, doctors, and such) are not available, we know that we will die sooner rather than later.  If that is the case, then so be it!  The cadre of family and/or friends near by is simply what people have always done in the past to care for those who can’t care for themselves until they go home to be with the Lord.

Older people are not just a drag on others, however.  We have an array of skills, knowledge, and understanding of an age when electronics didn’t even exist, when we burned our own trash in the back yard, and by and large took care of ourselves and others without the government having much to say about it.  Those are precisely the skills that communities that are cooperating in surviving need to know.  Additionally, there is a difference between being older and being decrepit.  I am old, not decrepit.  I can work a full day, shoot straight, and think clearly.  Until the day comes when such things are no longer possible for me, then I can be a productive member of any survival community. 

With preppers of every age, however, I hope and pray daily that all of this preparation isn’t needed.  However, I will continue to be ready just in case it is.

Letter Re: Re: Studying Guerilla Warfare Tactics

Sir,
I recently ordered and read the book Resistance to Tyranny: A Primer. This book was published in the last few years, and therefore is quite modern and an excellent companion to Total Resistance by Major H. Von Dach. As a primer, it provides a general overview of the topic, with listed resources for further research. It has many lessons that I believe would be applicable to a TEOTWAWAKI situation.

God Bless, – Andrew M.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Spotted on Craigslist in Aurora, Colorado: 1984 Chevy Blazer/CUCV/Military/Diesel/M1009 – $7,500 (Aurora, Colorado)

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“For the children.” SurvivalBlog’s Editor at Large Michael Z. Williamson sent this: Lawn darts banned — now not even replacement parts are allowed. Why? because just three children died over the course of several decades in a nation of 300 million people. Statistically, your chances are much higher of dying from being struck by hailstones, or dying in a human stampede, or being crushed by a toppling vending machine. If the ever-watchful Nanny State really wants to keep us really safe, then they should ban bicycles, which kill thousands each year. Oh, and to use the same perverse logic, and all the spare parts for bicycles should be destroyed, in case someone fiendishly decides to build one.

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Steve C. sent: Hurricane Katrina “Gun Confiscation” – My Experience

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Wrath of God stuff: Wildfires in Black Forest near Colorado Springs, Royal Gorge Park and Rocky Mountain National Park are all burning as temperatures verging on triple digits and high winds hit Colorado. (At least 379 homes have been destroyed.)

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Pat Cascio suggested: Is your laser tornado tuff?

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Army Kills Competition To Replace Service Rifle.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“And take heed to yourselves, lest at any time your hearts be overcharged with surfeiting, and drunkenness, and cares of this life, and [so] that day come upon you unawares.
For as a snare shall it come on all them that dwell on the face of the whole earth.
Watch ye therefore, and pray always, that ye may be accounted worthy to escape all these things that shall come to pass, and to stand before the Son of man.” – Luke 21:34-36 (KJV)

Notes from JWR:

June 15th marks the anniversary of the Battle of Kosovo, in 1389.

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Today we present another entry for Round 47 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course. (A $1,195 value.) B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), F.) Two BirkSun.com photovoltaic backpacks (one Level, and one Atlas, both black), with a combined value of $275, G.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and H.) A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com. The current value of this roll is at least $225.

Second Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. C.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. D.) $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P.), E.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials and F.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value. E.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value), and F.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 47 ends on July 31st so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Planning to Bug Out With a Military Mindset, Part 1, by C.W.D.

I will be writing a series of articles for SurvivalBlog that focus on prepping aspects, but with a military mindset. I will say first and foremost that I am not the definitive expert on these subjects, though I do have a wealth of experience that I would like to share. First, I am an Infantryman by trade. I have served in Iraq during the surge and also Afghanistan. I have been a Rifle Team Leader and Squad Leader in combat. . Additionally, I spent 3 years as the opposing force applying guerilla tactics against units who were deploying overseas to combat. I have seen when good doctrine and tactics, techniques and procedures (TTPs) work perfectly and also when they have not. One of the defining characteristics of war is chaos. TTPs are the counterweight to this chaos. From the moment combat begins, plans often become obsolete, communications fail, Soldiers become casualties, and units fragment. The result can be devastating. I have served in Light Infantry and Airborne Infantry Units. So my views and opinions will be with that mentality. There are other types of Infantry Units that choose to skin the cat differently. It doesn’t make them wrong just a different flavor of soda.

The first topic I will write about is some factors to plan for when bugging out. From reading these and other forums a lot of people seem to have the same plan to one degree or another; through on a bug out bag and start walking. Sadly, most of those people will find themselves dead. So I will discuss several military doctrines and TTPs that will aid them in this endeavor. Any bug out must be planned out thoroughly and elaborately, this doesn’t mean that your plan must be elaborate, but that you must cover all the angles. There are six planning or assessment factors that can save your life. In the Infantry world everything we do is based on the acronym METT-TC and without knowing it all of us use this tool hundreds of times a day, just not in this deliberate thought process. METT-TC stands for Mission, Enemy, Terrain, Troops, Time, and Civilians. Some or all of these play key factors in operations and planning. You must begin to think of your bug out as an operation, not just a stroll from one place to another. I will elaborate and explain each factor:

Mission, this is what I am planning or currently doing or my desired end state.  This will dictate a large majority of your initial actions based off of what your mission is. It is critical that all members of your party understand the mission to the lowest level and also what each member’s piece of the mission is. The reason for this is should something happen to a member of your party someone else will have to fill in on that role and they must know what that role is. A term we use in the military is two down, one up. This means I will know the job one echelon above me and two below me. It is also a good idea to know the job to the left and right of you. This mean that when you look to the left and right of you, you should know the job of the person you see and that they should know the same. As stated above, my mission will dictate most of my principle actions if I am bugging out. For instance, if I am bugging out it is implied that I want to try to remain hidden until I can get out of built up or urban areas as much as possible. For example, its hit the fan and I need to get to from point A (an unsafe location) to point (my bug in location or link up point with family or friends). So if I come across a group of people I will shy away from them and try to stay out of eyesight, smell, and hearing distance of them.

Enemy, this should be considered everyone that you come across. In a bug out situation there are the haves and the have not’s. You have and should consider that they do not and want what you have. The general rule of thumb is that for every one enemy I encounter, I want to have three friendly personnel. So if I come across two people I would want to have five other people with me. This will give me the odds that I want so that it will deter them from trying anything and if it should become hostile I can either disarm them or have enough fire power that I can put on them so that they cannot shoot back at me without being killed. This ratio of 3:1 can change based off several factors. Such as: weapon systems, improvements made to their fighting position and finally, the training and expertise of both your group and theirs.

Terrain is one of the most important factors, so much so that it gets it own acronym of factors that you should plan according to. That acronym is OAKOC. This stands for obstacles, avenues of approach, key and decisive terrain, observation and fields of fire, cover and concealment.

  • Obstacles- These will limit your mobility with regards to your mission. These obstacles can be natural or main made.  These may include ravines, gaps, or ditches over 3-meters wide; tree stumps and large rocks over 18-inches high; forests with trees 8 inches or greater in diameter and with less than 4 meters between trees; and manmade obstacles such as towns or cities.
  • Avenues of approach- An avenue of approach is a route leading to an objective or key terrain. Put plainly, it’s a path that might lead people to you or you to people. You should also consider how large of a group can travel on these and also if it is accessible to vehicles. These may also be lines of drift which are paths that are natural or formed by animals. These should be avoided because if you were to come across someone if would most likely be on one of these.
  • Key and decisive terrain- Are terrain that affords a marked advantage to the combatant who seizes, retains, or controls it. Simply put it is terrain that I can use to ones advantage such as a hill top to look at others below them, or it can even be a bridge that I can use to control who gets to cross a river. Or if they should want to use it to attack them as others cross. They will be channelized on the bridge and limited in the space that they can maneuver. The bridge then becomes key terrain because it gives them an advantage over their opposition.
  • Observation and fields of fire- You should analyze areas surrounding key terrain, objectives, avenues of approach, and obstacles to determine if they provide clear observation and fields of fire for both friendly and enemy forces. This means that I should be concerned with being able to see the other people from my key terrain, avenues of approach and more specifically not only that I can see them but can I shoot at them from that location if need be.
  • Cover and Concealment- Cover is protection from being shot at, this can be sand bags or trees over 8” in diameter. Concrete blocks such as ones used in building can be used but only if they are filled with cement. A standard concrete block will do little to nothing to stop a bullet. Concealment is protection from observation but not from bullets.  Such as foliage, camouflage patterns, terrain. Cover can be concealment but concealment cannot be cover.

Troops are the next planning or assessment factor. This is solely concerned with the troops that you have with you and questions like: What kind of training for they have? How physically fit are they? How confident are you in their ability to complete a task? And do you even have enough of them to complete your task? This is all about knowing your men or women in your group and being able to honestly consider their capabilities. Just going to a range and shooting at a target 25 meters away does not mean that they will be able to shoot, move and communicate or that they have the proficiency to defend against hungry and crazed people who want to take what you have.

Time is the amount of time you have to accomplish your task, in bugging out this may be one of the most critical factors. Have you bugged out in time? Also it is used in planning considerations such as how long it will take you to bug out to your location. How much food and water should you bring? What time of the day will you travel? Night time travel will greatly slow down the time it takes for you to negotiate more difficult terrain.

 Civilians will be a harder factor to assess for, this because there will be so many. Especially, in an urban environment. Needless to say since there could possibly be so many of them it would be in your best interest to stay away from them and consider them hostile until you can determine otherwise.

This was just a brief overview of one aspect to military planning. It only brushes the surface but I hope that it will give you a different perspective to your bugging out plans.  You must be methodical and calculated in your plans. Know where to assume some risk and where to control it.

Part 2 of this article will be on principles to use when planning your actual bug out movement. After that I plan to discuss more tactically-based topics that I have learned from combat and training.

Letter Re: Healthy Eating and Food Storage Rotation

Dear Mr. Rawles,
I started my weight-loss/lifestyle change journey four months ago.  I found myself unable to sprint a flight of stairs without feeling lightheaded at the top.  My older, but thinner lunchtime walking partners didn’t appear to have this issue.  I have been reading about the need to get into shape should a SHTF scenario happen in the near future.  This convinced me that I need to make a healthy lifestyle change including weight-loss and more physical activity.

As I started this endeavor, I wondered if the food preparations I stored would work with my new eating habits.  You’ve probably heard the motto “store what you eat, eat what you store”.
My prepping began a few years ago.  I learned canning from my mother and I took up dehydrating just recently.  I’ve been to the local LDS cannery twice and have loaded up on pantry items.  We also bought a few MREs for meal variety.  This was all before my decision to change the way I eat.

I joined Weight Watchers (WW) to help guide me on my weight-loss quest.  (I don’t work for WW, nor make any money from writing this article.  There are probably other great weight-loss programs out there.  This happened to be the program I chose.)

I knew that whatever program I followed, it would have to work with my food storage items.  I don’t typically buy the frozen pre-measured meals that WW or other companies sell.  After SHTF, these won’t be available anyway, so I need to learn to eat what I have.  My ultimate goal is to lose weight while rotating our food storage.
Here is what I found so far:

Canning:
WW recommends eating fruits and vegetables over processed food.  Canning supports this since a wide range of fruits, vegetables, soups and stews can be stored and rotated easily.  You know exactly what goes into these foods.  Perfect are tomatoes, string beans, broth soups, pickles, and salsas for a few.  Canned corn, potatoes and beans add a few “points” (the WW food measurement system), but these foods make you feel fuller and are most times worth the trade-off in points.  Fruits like apples and peaches are another great choice too, but I’m careful to use the lightest syrup when canning.  Jams and jellies are high in sugar so I use these sparingly.
 
Dehydrating:
If you’ve ever participated in WW or lived with someone who has, you’ve heard of low-point/zero-point soup.  This soup is a life saver for someone who is running out of the weekly point allowance and wants a filling meal.  I make the soup different each time, but I start out with vegetable broth and then throw in handfuls of different veggies I have dried.  This could include string beans, peas, carrots, broccoli, onions, mushrooms, celery, zucchini, etc.  Add a small amount of basil and oregano.  For protein, add some dehydrated salad shrimp.  I make this about every other week (yes, I frequently am running out of WW points!) and I cook it in my sun oven so I don’t have to heat up the house.  Simmer until the veggies are re-hydrated.   An extremely easy meal to make and it is satisfying. 
Fruits can be a little bit different when dehydrated.  Zero point bananas and grapes suddenly become snacks with points attached to them when turned into dried bananas and raisins.  This is because the sugars in the fruits change when heated.
 
LDS Cannery Items:
We bought 25 pound bags of wheat, oats, beans and rice.  What am I to do with all of this?  Another of the WW guidelines is to add fiber, whole grains and legumes to your daily intake.  I ground some of the whole wheat and made wonderful wheat bread in the sun oven.  Instant oats are a low-point alternative for a quick breakfast, while the rolled variety is great in recipes such as muffins.  Beans are a protein filled low-point legume that can be used in a wide range of dishes.   White rice, on the other hand, is a bit challenging for me to use and this lags in our rotation.  Rice has a similar amount of WW points as pasta, which for me is pretty high.  You have to decide if the benefit of eating rice outweighs the point value.  There might be some alternate food you might want to eat instead (spaghetti squash, for example is zero points and can be used as a bed for whatever you might top rice.  Spaghetti squash will probably not be available after the SHTF so I’ll keep my rice on hand).
 
MREs:
I don’t typically eat the MRE meals until near their expiration date.   An average MRE meal contains  1,100 to 1,300 calories.  While I haven’t figured out the WW point values, I’m sure that one MRE meal with all its extras would keep me sated for a full day.  For example a fruit bar I pulled out of an MRE recently measured at 4 WW points (equal to a reasonable breakfast), and a large cracker with jelly equals 6 WW points (equal to a reasonable lunch).  So there would be an easy way to split up the meal need be, although a nutritionist would probably balk at the quality of what is being ingested.  Of course, with the stress of a SHTF situation, I’d probably eat the whole MRE meal and extras in one sitting.  J 
 
In conclusion, I have discovered that my food preps do support a healthy change in lifestyle.  While I still have a ways to go to make my weight and physical activity goals, I am well on my way.  With portion control, I am able to balance both my weight loss goal and rotation of my food preps. – Wendy Q.