Letter Re: Low-Budget Photovotaically Charged Drill Batteries

Dear Mr Rawles,

This letter is in response to the piece on using photovoltaics to charge batteries by C.K.. I feel I should spend some time discussing some potential problems with charging Lithium Ion (“Li-ion”) batteries the way C.K. proposes. However first a few general notes.

– I am all for scavenging if you know what you are doing like some of us. But ‘newbies’ are better off not trying to disassemble anything more complicated than a desktop power supply for safety reasons as JWR pointed
out. I should add that the process that causes the ‘bounce’ after discharge also keeps some capacitors charged much longer than you would imagine possible.

Secondly if you only need some diodes or resistors, you can buy a batch of 100 for a few dollars on-line which will give you a lifetime supply. Just look for vendors with a 99%+ positive rating and 10,000+ feedback. If you don’t like eBay et al., try Aussie firm Futurlec. Your spare parts will come in handy someday when we realize we cannot afford to throw everything away.

– I have no problems with C.K.’s instructions and wouldn’t have bothered to write in if he had used NiCd or NiMH batteries because they can handle
some degree of overcharging, which is bound to happen in his setup if you are shooting for full capacity. For NiCd and NiMH the rule of thumb is that if they start to feel warmer than ambient temperature, they are either full or you are charging them at too high a rate. So even if you have no voltmeter handy, you can have a pretty good idea what is going on. And if you charge them in a solar charger, make sure the batteries themselves (and their housing) are shaded because heat from any source degrades battery life expectancy rather quickly.

– Li-ion cells, on the other hand, cannot cope with overcharging without some form of problems popping up. A 3.7V cell should not be charged to a voltage higher than 4.2V. Prolonged charging above 4.3V destabilizes the cell and causes CO2 to be formed inside it. The charging current will be automatically cut off if the cell’s internal pressure rises to 200 psi. However this doesn’t immediately stop the chemical reactions and if pressure rises to 500 psi the cell starts venting the CO2. Depending on the exact circumstances, thermal runaway may occur and the cell can burst into flames.

– Charging current isn’t a big issue with Li-ion as it can absorb large initial currents and when the cell reaches capacity it will throttle that current anyway. Of course for charging with solar panels this is a problem because it will cause their output voltage to rise which is exactly what we don’t need.

– Li-ion cells cannot be trickle charged; they must be disconnected once full because constant charging causes metallic lithium plating which can compromise the safety of the cell.

– 3.7V Li-ion cells need to be charged for 3 hours at 4.2V to reach maximum capacity. Shorter charge times and/or lower voltages lead to reduced charges (= shorter runtime). Consumer products chargers usually are programmed for maximum runtime, but if you can live with shorter runtime between charges, its better to charge at a lower voltage which will give you a longer useful battery life.

– The 3 hour time frame is predicated on the fact that your charger can deliver 0.8C to 1C of current for the first stage of the charging process (i.e. until the cell reaches 4.1V). If your cell is rated at 2000mAh (=2Ah), then 1C = 2 Amps. For large battery packs that means a lot of amps. Lower maximum current is actually beneficial for the cell but requires a longer charge time.

– Taking all of the above together, I would say that charging Li-ion without a good deal of checking voltages can be rather tricky. This is exacerbated by the large variance in the output of a solar cell related to its angle to the sun, cloud cover, etc. Please keep in mind that just because charging a cell works fine once or twice doesn’t mean its safe. A lot of the damage done by overcharging Li-ion batteries is cumulative because the chemical processes involved are irreversible. That is, your battery may kill itself (or worse) after ten trips to your solar charger.

– If you are a new or wannabe tinkerer, I would say make small panels that can deliver around 10V-12V (open circuit) and 1 Amp. If you connect that to a 7.4V battery pack (= multiple cells), its unlikely you will seriously overcharge the pack unless you leave it out in the full sun for several days. If you want to use large panels: do yourself a favor and buy a commercial 12V Li-ion charger.

– For dyed-in-the-wool tinkerers there is yet another solution: you can build yourself a small charge controller that drives the charge current to near zero as it approaches a preset voltage. Its parts list contains 6 items and its fits on a square inch if you are really pressed for real estate. What you need is: – 3 metal film resistors (1% tolerance – 2x 10K and 1x 3.9K) – 1 zener diode (6.2V – any wattage is fine – other voltages work too but require different resistor values) – 1 op-amp (rail to rail switching – I use a CA3140) – 1 solid state switch (power MOSFET or transistor with high amp rating – I prefer IRL7833)

The circuit works very simple: the zener diode creates a reference voltage for the op-amp. The op-amp compares the battery voltage to this reference voltage. If the battery voltage is lower it closes the switch and if the battery voltage is higher it opens the switch. One of the 10K resistors limits the current through the zener diode and the other 2 resistors form a voltage divider that maps the battery voltage to the reference voltage range. To calculate the proper resistor sizes for the voltage divider use the following formula (this formula only works if your base resistor is tied to ground): resistor size = target voltage / reference voltage * base resistor size – base resistor size

A 6.2V zener diode gives a 6.1V reference voltage when fed through a 10K resistor.
Targeting 8.4V (2×4.2V) while using a 10K base resistor gives us: resistor size = 8.4/6.1*10K-10K = 3.77K.
I would use a 3.9K resistor here because wires and solder joints have small resistances too so the voltage measured at the battery tends to be .1V – .2V below the charge controller’s calculated target voltage and you quickly lose a lot of capacity if you charge Li-ion at voltages below 4.1V. The narrow band of target voltages (4.1V-4.2V) is also the reason to use metal film resistors. Carbon type resistors can have tolerances between 5% and 20%. Putting those numbers in the above formula quickly points out its a waste of time building the charge controller with those.

Connections:
– The circuit uses a common ground for batteries, solar panel and other components; so all ground references must be tied together with the negative leads of the solar cells and batteries.
– IRL7833 pin 1 (left most pin if front facing) connects to op-amp pin 6
– IRL7833 pin 2 connects to solar panel positive lead
– IRL7833 pin 3 connects to battery positive lead
– op-amp pin 1 not connected
– op-amp pin 2 connects to voltage divider center position (between
resistors)
– op-amp pin 3 connects to positive side zener diode (where the band is)
– op-amp pin 4 connects to ground
– op-amp pin 5 not connected
– op-amp pin 6 connects to IRL7833 pin 1
– op-amp pin 7 connects to IRL7833 pin 2 / solar panel positive lead
– op-amp pin 8 not connected
– zener diode positive side (band) and op-amp pin 2 connect to battery
positive lead through a 10K resistor
– zener diode negative side connects to ground
– voltage divider = battery positive lead -> 3.9K resistor -> 10K resistor -> ground

Heat sinks:
For very low currents (< .5A) your solid state switch doesn’t need a heat sink. For currents up to 2 amps a small heat sink will do (think soup can lid). Beyond that you should look into using an aluminum heat sink. If you really want to go overboard (the IRL7833 handles 250A): seal your circuit in a peanut butter jar full of vegetable oil and submerge it in a brook – you now have a near infinite heat sink.

This controller’s output is not an ideal match for Li-ion batteries but comes close enough to the requirements that you can leave it out in the sun all day without endangering your batteries. Though in sunny weather I would think 4-5 hours charging time is plenty if your solar panel is adequately sized. Most likely you will notice the batteries charging somewhat slower during stage one and converging close to the ideal curve during the saturation stage of the process.

With a volt meter it may look like this controller acts as a variable resistor but it doesn’t. Connecting it to an oscilloscope shows it to be a real pulse charger (your batteries will thank you for this!) with variable duty cycle and operating frequency. A 12V version of the controller connected to an old motorcycle battery ran at around 300 kHz while topping up the battery. Its duty cycle was mostly determined by the amount of power absorbed by the battery at any given time.

– For advanced tinkerers: you can replace the op-amp with a micro-controller, omit the zener diode and add a circuit to deliver the proper voltage for the micro-controller. Read the battery voltage through the voltage divider. Again the use of metal film resistors is crucial here. The charging algorithm for Li-ion is very simple and straightforward to program but you may have already realized that from reading the points above.

And finally if you want lots of info on all kinds of batteries: spend some time at BatteryUniversity.com. Regards, – D.P.

Letter Re: Pro-Gun or No-Gun America, Which Saves More Lives?

James;
I just want to say that I find it amazing how most people, including well-known commentators, go round and round about guns versus crime. This point has been beaten to death, but the gun control crowd wants it to continue. Please folks, realize that the purpose is to disarm the civilian population and has little or nothing to do with public safety. Government safety is what is at stake and as long as the reality can be deflected away from the disarmament purpose, the discussion about public safety is fine! Why does the word stupid come to mind? – Phil in Fort Lauderdale

Economics and Investing:

Jumbo Mumbo Jumbo: Treasury: Debt Has Been Exactly $16,699,396,000,000.00 for 56 Days. (Thanks to Darin Mc.C. for the link.)

Fraud Confirmed: 100-Day Delay to Take Bullion Delivery in London

Deutsche Bank Opaque Loans From Brazil to Italy Hide Risk

It is sad to see The Daily Bell closing down. I’ve been a reader since back before their name was truncated. I’m also someone who observed the SEC’s merciless attack on Anthony Wile’s good name. (Lesser men would have called it quits, but to his credit, he persevered.) The good news is that all of The Daily Bell content will be archived. OBTW, I’d be curious to know where (geographically) Daily Bell Editor Anthony Wile has Gone Galt. I wish him the best, wherever he is.

Items from The Economatrix:

In Race To Bottom, US Dollar Falls Behind

Wholesale Inventories Fall, Likely Drag On GDP Growth

Credit Crunch Right Around The Corner: US Senators Introduce Bill To Break Up Megabanks, Bring Back Glass-Steagall, FRB To Implement Basel III Capital Reforms And To End QE This Year (Not Slow End)

Odds ‘n Sods:

K.T. liked a piece over at Journey To Forever on Hydraulic Ram Pumps.

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Peter S. suggested this privacy service: SecuredURL.org

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For those interested in registered suppressors, reader C.K. suggested an interesting, lengthy (and photo-intensive) look inside the cans from many popular makers, with lots of discussion about different baffle designs and those dreaded baffle strikes. While these accessories available over the counter sans papiere in many European countries, here in the United States suppressors requires a $200 Federal transfer tax payment before delivery. Constructing your own without first paying the Federal tax is a felony that can land you in prison for several years. (And like any other felony will result is a lifetime loss of gun ownership and voting rights.) Don’t risk it!

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A gent over at The FALFiles recommended an article about Jason Everman: Kicked out of Nirvana and kicked out of Soundgarden, only to become a Special Forces hero. His life story is good fodder for a biography, or would make a great movie.

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Ted Nugent: Zimmerman verdict vindicates citizen patrols, self-defense

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"If all mankind minus one were of one opinion, and only one person were of the contrary opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person, than he , if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind….. The peculiar evil of silencing the expression of an opinion is, that it is robbing the human race; posterity as well as the existing generation;those who dissent from the opinion,still more than those who hold it. If the opinion is right, they are deprived of the opportunity of exchanging error for truth; if wrong, they lose, what is almost as great a benefit , the clearer perception and livelier impression of truth, produced by its collision with error." – John Stuart Mill, On Liberty

Notes from JWR:

This is the 34th anniversary of the 1979 death in battle of Hugh John McCall, a New York City native who was a volunteer in the Rhodesian Army. He was a sergeant in the 3 Commando of the Rhodesian Light Infantry (RLI.)

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Today we present another entry for Round 47 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course. (A $1,195 value.) B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), F.) Two BirkSun.com photovoltaic backpacks (one Level, and one Atlas, both black), with a combined value of $275, G.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and H.) A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com. The current value of this roll is at least $225.

Second Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. C.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. D.) $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P.), E.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials and F.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value. E.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value), and F.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 47 ends on July 31st so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Pro-Gun or No-Gun America, Which Saves More Lives?, by Skvez

While discussing the potential for a gun ban in the United States I realized that the pro-gun-ban people genuinely believe that banning guns will save lives. In an attempt to facilitate debate I discovered that getting down to the numbers helps discover where their math is different from the pro-gun position, it is these points we can focus on to help them see the light. I put this sequence of equations on a spreadsheet but you can talk someone through them without one. For each value get the person you are speaking to, to give you their value. I’ve using example numbers with a typical anti-gun leaning.

A: Population: That’s an easy one, about 311,000,000.

B: Number of people killed with guns in America each year, I don’t have exact figures for this but it’s about 6,500. [JWR Adds: According to Bureau of Justice Statistics, the actual figure was around 11,100 in 2011, and has been in decline since 1993.]

C: The percentage of people who would be saved if guns were banned, lets say 50%. (Clearly it’s not 100%, since illegal guns would still be used, while pro-gun people may claim that the number would actually increase, lets not waste our time on this point just now.)

D: The number of additional people who would be killed because criminals would become bolder with less to fear from disarmed victims and would-be-victims who today can defend themselves who would be helpless once disarmed, lets say 200.

So, the total killed with easy access to guns = B (6,500) Total killed without easy access to guns = B*C+D (3,450). Pro-gun people typically get bogged down at this point debating these figures, but they are only one piece of the story and it’s a small piece. Agree to disagree and move on, say something like “While I disagree with those figures let’s accept them for now and move on.” What about government-driven Genocide events against their own people? These occur very infrequently, but when they do the loss of life is often in the millions. The problem is they are very hard to calculate and most anti-gun people put the chances at zero. This is where the pro-gun argument clearly defeats the anti-gun argument it’s here we want to spend our time opening the mind of the the anti-gun people. Estimating the probability of a genocidal event initiated by the US government and the resultant loss of life is very hard so let’s look at the world average for the 20th Century:

E: Average population of the world during the 20th Century. Obviously this varied but let’s say that the populated started about 5,000 Million and ended about 7,000 Million. So the average is about 6,000 Million.

F: Number of people killed by their own governments in genocidal actions during the 20th Century: 170 Million. (You can find evidence to back this number up pretty easily just by a quick web search)

G: Number of people killed by their own governments as a yearly average during the 20th Century = F/100 = 1.7 Million

H: Probability of a person being killed per year by their own governments as a yearly average during the 20th Century = G/E = 1.7M/6000M = 0.000283

I: Average number of Americans killed per year by their own government in genocidal actions = H * A = 88,116 That is roughly 88,000 Americans would die on average each year if the American government were capable of and intent upon taking some form of genocidal action against the American people. Of course it wouldn’t be 88,000 each and every year, it’s more likely to be 200 times this number once every 200 years or something similar but we’re dealing with averages here. Now the anti-gun people will typically walk right into you logical arms by pointing out that America is not a ‘typical world country’, it’s existed longer than 200 years without a Genocidal event. (Let’s not get into discussing some of the things Americans did to the aboriginal (“First Nation”) people some of which look very like genocide). “A genocidal event is less likely to happen in America”, they will cry. Is it? Why is that? Oh yes, it’s because the 2nd Amendment allows the population to be armed to discourage any such attempt!

J: The probability that a Genocidal event would be attempted given an armed population: Let’s say 25%? It could happen but it’s a lot less likely.

K: The percentage loss of life if a Genocidal event were to be tried against an armed population versus an unarmed population, certainly people would still die but it’s probably going to be fewer people because the people will be able to defend themselves. Even if it’s only by being able to lay down covering fire while they flee. Let’s be ‘generous’ to the anti-gun people and say no fewer than 80%.

So looking at Genocidal events we have Without guns: = I = 88,116 people / year With guns = I * J * K = 88,116 * 0.25 * 0.8 = 17,623 people / year

Totals so far: Losses of life with an Armed population per year: 6,500 + 17,623 = 24,234 Losses of life with an unarmed population per year: 3.450 + 88,116 = 91,566. We can stop here and try and let those numbers sink in. An Anti-gun America doesn’t save 3,050 lives a year (6,500 – 3,450). Long term, on average, it would cost 67,443 lives a year (91,566 – 24,123).

Or if you want to hammer things home you can do similar estimations based on loss of life from any external country attempting to invade America. Once again an America with an armed civilian population is less likely to be attacked and the losses will be smaller as the population can defend (or worst case lay down cover for a retreat) versus an unarmed population who are ripe for slaughter.

Also you can point out that the 1.7 Million people killed by genocidal events per year by their governments in the 20th Century is an average across the whole world. If you look at the events behind these figures in detail you see that by far the majority of these were killed after government disarmed the people. Thus logically these killings are less likely to happen to an armed population and more likely to happen to an unarmed population.

We reduced the value above (factor J) for an armed population but we didn’t increase it for an unarmed one (I). Without knowing what percentage of the world population were armed versus disarmed across the 20th Century we can’t really include this in our calculations but we can be confident that the average of 88,116 deaths per year for a population the size of America is a very conservative figure, it’s probably well over 100,000.

Letter Re: The Quest for Safety: Is Jackson County, Florida America’s Ideal Retreat Locale?

Jim:

Regarding your recent comparison of Jackson County, Florida, with Lewis, County, Idaho: I lived in Marianna in 2001 and worked at a bank.  I wouldn’t recommend it at all, as a location to move to, unless you are from the South.  I actually was turned down for [membership in] the local quilt guild because I was from the North, and one business owner told me another time that they just wished we’d come down, drop our money and leave.  It is not a friendly area [to outsiders].  “Paul Revere” needs to recheck his facts. The main employers there are the seven prisons… 

If you are from the North, they do not want anything to do with you.  I did some volunteer work at a Habitat for Humanity thrift store, and directed seven [inmates on probation] (“probies”) there.

The Jackson County Floridian is their paper.  Anyone considering moving there might want to follow up on that.

After a year, I’d had enough and returned to Missouri.

Just some thoughts. – Kathi L.

Letter Re: NIOSH Pocket Guide to Chemical Hazards

JWR:
I would also recommend the Emergency Response Guidebook published jointly by the USDOT and Canadian and Mexican Transportation agencies. This reference (ERG) lets you identify the material being transported by pipeline, tanker truck, or railcar. As a guide for First Responders to a HazMat accident, it also lists specific hazards and evacuation distances in the event of spill or fire.

I use this book to evaluate how at risk I am to accidents involving bulk materials being transported nearby. You need to pay attention to the placard (label) information on the side of the tanker. In my community I frequently see tanker trucks and railcars placarded “2448 Molten Sulfur”. Looking up Sulfur, Molten in the Emergency Response Guidebook tells me it is a flammable solid, and that I should stay upwind and evacuate at least 330 feet away from a spill. The evacuation zone increases to 1/2 mile if there is a risk of fire. My homestead is several miles from the nearest train tracks so my concern of exposure after a derailment of cars carrying molten sulfur is limited. I am, however, prepared to stay upwind and leave the proximity of a highway or rail crossing accident involving molten sulfur-carrying tankers.

A search on the internet for “MSDS + molten sulfur” provides me with the Material Safety Data Sheet for molten sulfur. Reading the Fire & Explosion Hazards section tells me that these tankers may vent the toxic gas hydrogen sulfide if exposed to heat , thus the need to stay upwind of an accident.

The NIOSH Pocket Guide to Chemical Hazards is valuable for letting you know how to protect yourself against personal health hazards when working with various chemicals, but alone doesn’t address spill/fire/explosion protocols. – Carol J.

News From The American Redoubt:

A reminder: Don’t miss the upcoming Patriots and Self-Reliance Rally at Farragut State Park, near Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, July 26, 27 & 28, 2013. There will be several SurvivalBlog advertisers with booths there. The speakers will include Stewart Rhodes, Sheriff Richard Mack, Pastor Chuck Baldwin, Dale Pearce, Kris Anne Hall, and Cope Reynolds.

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R.B.S. sent: Idaho cyclist survives scary wolf chase

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Troy H. sent this: Montana the first state to pass electronic devices spy law.

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For those who have been unable to find a church home (perhaps because of living in a very remote region, or because your local churches are all too doctrinally astray), I should mention the Children of the Free online church, based in eastern Idaho. Their services are streamed live on Sundays at 8 p.m. Mountain Time. Doctrinally, Pastor Charles Garcia’s virtual home church ministry is similar to that of the late Dr. Gene Scott’s Faith Center church in Glendale, California. He preaches salvation by Grace and Faith alone. Garcia’s focus is exegetical preaching and “Faith in action.” While he has an order of worship that does not begin with prayer and while I recognize some distinct doctrinal differences, I was impressed with the depth of his Biblical scholarship.

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Doug C. wrote to mention a garden tool blacksmith based in Bozeman, Montana. Tuli Fisher’s hand-forged tools have amazing quality. He travels regularly to Arts and Crafts faires in the Northwest.

Economics and Investing:

SurvivalBlog reader V.H. suggested this interview with Doug Casey: You MUST get assets outside of the U.S.

Der Gruppe Deutsche Börse’s MNI reports: China Government Advisor Says Economy In Crisis As Debt Costs Spiral. (Thanks to Andre D. for the link.)

Items from The Economatrix:

Game Over – “It’s All A Farce, The Fed & German Gold Is Gone” 

The Flash Point Looms

The Decline Of Breadwinner Jobs Has Resulted In The Longest Bread Lines In American History

Fed Split In June On QE Timing; Bernanke Sees Easy Policy For Now

Odds ‘n Sods:

File under: Predictable Posturing: Obama: Honor Trayvon Martin by battling gun violence. JWR’s Comment: Statists like BHO of course want “gun control.” But I assert that gun control was used. Consider that Zimmerman fired just one shot, center of mass, and pulled the trigger only after the situation was truly and clearly life-threatening. (Zimmerman was pinned to the ground and his head was being repeatedly slammed on the sidewalk, and he feared that he was going to pass out.) Waiting until then showed tremendous control. That was certainly a lot more gun control than some police display. I’m sure that there will also be calls to overturn or weaken Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” law. But it is clear that the law worked. Too bad that it took a lengthy and very expensive trial to prove the point.

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Over at Seasoned Citizen Prepper: Imagine for a Moment the Reality of an EMP Event

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Here is a web site similar to The American Rifleman magazine’s long-running The Armed Citizen column, featuring the news stories that the liberal media does not put on Page One about the proper use of firearms in self-defense, but with greater detail: Rationality Rebooted. Their mapping correlation of these events is a nice touch. Note how relatively few of these news articles are generated in The American Redoubt. More guns equals less crime. (Thanks to A.C. in Pennsylvania for the link.)

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Matt C. mentioned a company that recycles military surplus, benefiting veterans.

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Not to make light of a tragedy, but to emphasize the need for journalistic fact-checking: Epic KTVU Fail: Anchor Reports Pilot Names Including ‘Sum Ting Wong’ and ‘Wi Tu Lo’. (In this instance, they actually checked with the NTSB, but a summer intern with the agency erroneously confirmed the names.) The airline is now considering a lawsuit.

The Quest for Safety: Is Jackson County, Florida America’s Ideal Retreat Locale?

I recently found a YouTube slide show that is a good example of flawed statistical analysis: Economic Collapse Survival Map – Risk Analysis of best area in United States. In it, you will see how “Paul Revere” narrowed his search down to just Jackson County, Florida. While I’m sure that he was well-intentioned, this gent seems to have assigned undue weight on the factor of year-round crop production. In my estimation, if the power grids go down the key factors in survivability will be population density and proximity to urban areas rather than the ability to grow tomatoes in January.

As an example, let’s compare some statistics for Jackson County, Florida with Lewis County, Idaho. (I tried to pick a small county in the Redoubt with a similar land area.)

Jackson County, Florida:

Population: 49,746
Land Area: 954 square miles
Population Density: 54 per square mile
Institutionalized population: 5,690 (0.11 per county resident)
Number of cattle: 27,000 (0.542 per county resident)
Average size of farms: 247 acres
Average value of agricultural products sold per farm: $39,641
Total Cropland in County: 114,428 acres

Crime (in 2005):
Murders: 1
Rapes: 9
Robberies: 7
Assaults: 135
Burglaries: 236
Thefts: 354
Auto thefts: 33

Nearest Large City: Tallahassee
Population of Tallahassee: 181,376
Distance: 57 Miles (from Marianna)

Florida State Population: 19,317,568
State Population Density: 415.3 inhabitants per square mile

Lewis County, Idaho:

Population: 3,821
Land Area: 479 square miles
Population Density: 8 per square mile
Institutionalized population: 17 (.004 per county resident)
Number of cattle: 4,800 (1.256 per county resident)
Average size of farms: 1,224 acres
Average value of agricultural products sold per farm: $156,792
Total Cropland in County: 137,342 acres

Crime (in 2004):
Murders: 0
Rapes: 0
Robberies: 0
Assaults: 8
Burglaries: 18
Thefts: 39
Auto thefts: 6

Nearest Large City: Spokane, Washington
Population of Spokane: 210,103
Distance: 166 Miles (from Kamiah)

Idaho State Population: 1,595,728
State Population Density: 19.15 inhabitants per square mile

So… Where will you feel safer when the power grids go down, and when presumably a good portion of the institutionalized population could walk out the door?

I should mention that the difficulties of surviving a societal collapse in Florida are described my upcoming novel Expatriates: A Novel of the Coming Global Collapse. Granted, it is set in more populous central Florida (in the vicinity of Tavares) but a lot of the same problems would be evident: a large retiree population; an electric grid dependent on natural-gas fired power plant; an overall high population density; urban centers teeming with welfare-dependent people; a population that is largely disconnected from agrarian self-sufficiency; lack of respect for private property; large prison, jail, and hospital populations; and a fairly high crime rate.

But I must also mention one positive factor in Florida: Because of the high crime rate, the population has widely embraced concealed carry of firearms in the past decade. (Florida is nicknamed “The Gunshine State,” and has the highest per-capita number of concealed carry permits in the nation There are one million CCW permit holders in the state!)

In Idaho, few people feel the need to do so, but open carry of guns is perfectly legal both inside and outside of city limits, vehicular open carry is also legal both inside and outside of city limits, and no-permit concealed carry is allowed outside of city limits. (Which means 98% of the State.) And if you do want a concealed carry permit, then their issue is non-discretionary and affordable in Idaho. – J.W.R.