Letter Re: Coping with Obstructive Sleep Apnea When There is No Grid Power

Mr. Rawles –
I have been living with a CPAP for many years now, and am one of the persons for whom it has worked very well. I also know how bad things can be after not having my CPAP for three days when an airline lost it. After three days I was almost totally non-functional and was ready to lay out the $2,000 out of my own pocket to get a replacement machine. Fortunately my machine was found by the airline.

More recently I had 3 nights in 2 months where power outages deprived me of the use of my machine. I determined that I needed to find a way to get my CPAP off the power grid.

The first step was to measure the actual power drawn by my machine. Using a Kill A Watt monitor I learned that my machine used 27 watts of power. This of course could vary with the pressure setting, and model used.

I then found a 55 watt solar charging system on sale at Costco for $200. The system came with 3 panels, mounting frame, charge controller, and 200 watt “modified sine wave” inverter. I added a 125 A/hr deep cycle battery,
battery case, and some 10 gauge wire. Since my CPAP did not have a DC power option, I could not run it directly from the battery. The AC input, however, was a “universal” design which can accept any AC voltage from 100
to 250 VAC without switching. Such a universal power input has no problem dealing with the less than ideal power from the “modified sine wave” inverter. If my CPAP had just a conventional 120 VAC power input then the
use of a “true sine wave” inverter might have been needed.

This system worked fine to run my CPAP all spring, summer, and fall, but come winter with shorter days and more clouds, it could not keep the battery charged. I needed to supplement the solar charging system with a AC powered battery charger.

The next year I purchased another identical system, and hooked two of the panels to the [batteries for the] CPAP system. The charge controller supplied with the systems could only support 5 panels for about 91 watts of power in peak sunlight. This expanded system worked great all this last winter.

After the success of my off-grid solar electric system, I now have a separate system for my ham radios, and am building a larger system to power our refrigerator.

It is quite possible and not that expensive to build an off-grid solar electric system to power relatively small loads like a CPAP machine. Like everything else in preparedness, it is better to build and try your preps now, while we still have the support infrastructure to allow you to make mistakes and correct them. – Suburban R.

JWR Replies: Many thanks for giving us the details on how you made your system work. Having separate system provides redundancy. And keeping them separate will help prevent an accidental deep discharge of your system. (This typically happens when an appliance is accidentally left turned on.) Having separate systems also gives you some redundancy because of equipment failure. You could fairly quickly reconfigure your ham radio power system into a power source for our CPAP. Something as simple as just a broken power cord could deadline a system, so buy spares for all of the crucial parts. Remember: “Two is one, and one is none!”

From what I have read, the motors inside most CPAP machines run on DC voltages. So for someone to run a DC to AC inverter, only to feed your machine’s 120 VAC input jack (or cord) which is then in turn transformed back into DC is grossly inefficient. So I recommend this to anyone who is dependent upon motorized medical equipment (such as a CPAP machine or an Oxygen Concentrator) with an AC input: Do your very best to replace them with a unit that has a 12 VDC power input. If you contract with a medical supply company, or a care facility, or there is a medical insurance company involved, then this might be more complex. DO NOT overly complicate the process by telling them all about your alternative power system (or your plans to get one.) That will just confuse the situation. Simply tell them that you need a system that is compatible with power available from a car cigarette lighter. THAT is something simple they will be able to understand!

Economics and Investing:

Special Note: For any SurvivalBlog readers with pending orders (already paid, but order not received) with Mulligan Mint (a former advertiser : Please e-mail me and let me know: Your name, your order number, the number of ounces ordered, your e-mail address, and the date that you placed your order. I will then do my best to get them to ship you order. (Mulligan Mint claims that they are presently shipping orders.)

Matt H. sent this: U.S. gasoline consumption takes a nosedive.

G.G. suggested: Pandemic of pension woes is plaguing the nation

Items from The Economatrix:

Paul Craig Roberts:  Hiding Economic Depression With Spin

Jim Willie:  Bullion Banks Have Pilfered 60,000 Tons Of Gold From Allocated Accounts

Theft By Deficit

“We Have Become a Nation of Hamburger Flippers”: Dan Alpert Breaks Down the Jobs Report

Odds ‘n Sods:

Todd M. suggested reading this troubling MIT Technology Review article on SCADA systems vulnerability: Hacking Industrial Systems Turns Out to Be Easy: New research from Black Hat shows it’s possible to trick water and energy infrastructure to cause physical damage—and securing these systems remains painfully slow. Meanwhile, G.G. suggested that we read: Chinese Hacking Team Caught Taking Over Decoy Water Plant. Oh, and coincidentally, my friend Bob G. just called and recommended this novel, based on a credible terrorist scenario: Gridlock.

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Some folks have put together a combined Calendar of Prepper, Survivalist and Self-Reliance Shows. I hope that they will keep this updated on a regular basis.

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What will really happen when the Yellowstone supervolcano erupts? (And BTW, most of the American Redoubt is upwind of Yellowstone. In contrast, the downwind Upper Midwest and Plains States will get most of the ash fall.)

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Feds Are Suspects in New Malware That Attacks Tor Anonymity.

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The power behind the throne: Benghazi Bombshell: Valerie Jarrett, Commander in Chief. (Reader F.G. mentioned that Rush Limbaugh read this compete article on the air on August 6th.) Since when does a White House staffer who wasn’t confirmed by the Senate get to issue a “Deny Tactical Support” order? BHO and his cronies must go. Time for impeachment.

Notes from JWR:

Mike Williamson’s latest book Tour of Duty: Stories and Provocations was just released! (Mike is SurvivalBlog’s Editor At Large.)

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Today we present another entry for Round 48 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course. (A $1,195 value.) B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), F.) A $300 Gift Certificate from Freeze Dry Guy. G.) Two BirkSun.com photovoltaic backpacks (one Level, and one Atlas, both black), with a combined value of $275, H.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and I.) A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com. The current value of this roll is at least $225.

Second Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. C.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. D.) $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P.), E.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials F.) A full set of all 22 of the books published by PrepperPress.com. This is more than a $200 value, and G.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value.), E.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security., E.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value).

Round 48 ends on September 30th so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Coping with Obstructive Sleep Apnea When There is No Grid Power, by Chris X.

Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) is a breathing disorder which is caused by the narrowing or total occlusion of the airway while sleeping.  The study of sleep using electroencephalogram electrodes, chest and abdominal effort belts, breathing sensors, and blood oxygenation sensors is called polysomnography.  The advent of Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) machines in the 1980s started the home treatment revolution of OSA.  Studies have shown that untreated OSA can cause high blood pressure, heart disease, stroke, depression, excessive daytime somnolence, fatigue, occupational accidents, and motor vehicle accidents.  More recent studies have shown that OSA is linked to adult-onset diabetes, fibromyalgia and attention deficit disorder.  OSA is just one of the disorders in the Sleep Disordered Breathing realm.  Depending on the diagnosis and appropriate treatment, a person may utilize a CPAP, Auto-PAP, BiLevel, Auto Servo Ventilation (AutoSV), or Variable Positive Airway Pressure (VPAP) machine.  For the rest of this article, I will refer only to OSA and CPAP for simplicity.

OSA is a common problem in our nation.  One study shows that about 1 in 5 men and 1 in 10 women in the United States have Obstructive Sleep Apnea (1).  While many people have been tested and treated for OSA in the past two or three decades, it is still suspected that more people have been undiagnosed than have been diagnosed.  One of the first things that will be seen without electricity is a die-off of people afflicted by many life-threatening ailments.  People sustained by ventilators will be gone in minutes after a large scale power failure.  People who require dialysis for kidney failure will be gone in a matter of days or weeks.  The vast majority of people with OSA will not expire in the short term without their CPAP machines.  However, they would likely become miserable, exhausted, and experience physical and mental breakdowns from not getting restful sleep.
I am a respiratory therapist and sleep technologist.  I also have OSA and use a CPAP machine.  I love and endorse it.  In a national crisis and utility collapse, I would miss running my CPAP on AC current.  However, here are some ways to cope.

Run your machine on DC power.
Most of the modern CPAP machines have a 12 VDC power input port.  Cords can be obtained from Home Medical Equipment (HME) providers but are not a prescription item and insurance does not cover them.  It is least expensive to find what you need on the internet.  I have a cable with a DC jack on one end and a male cigarette lighter plug on the other.  This cable alone could be used to power the machine in a vehicle from the cigarette lighter.  I have second cable which has a female cigarette lighter socket and splits into two jumper cable type battery connectors.  When connected to a fully charged deep cycle marine battery, I get at least two nights of power for my CPAP.  This is what I do when I go ice fishing in a sleeper house in the winter.  Hiking with a deep cycle marine battery is cumbersome to say the least and not practical when on the move.  A small number of CPAP machines have internal batteries but they usually only offer about 8 hours of power before being depleted.  Heated humidifiers really consume battery power.  If you use a humidifier, it is best to use the humidifier passively and just let the air pass over the water in the chamber.  You won’t get nearly as much humidification but it’s better than none at all.  Use saline to moisturize your nasal passages and drink water to stay hydrated.  The number of hours you get out of a deep cycle battery varies depending on the battery’s amp-hour rating, the ambient air temperature, and the pressure(s) that your ventilatory device operates at.  To recharge the battery, photovoltaic mat or panel can be used to trickle charge it.  I have looked into portable military grade solar mats and panels  They are expensive, running a few hundred to over $1,000.  However, they can also be used to recharge cell phones, GPS devices, and any other battery powered gear.  It may be worth it to you to invest in a good one.

[JWR Adds: Be sure to get a charge controller, to avoid over-charging your battery bank. For a typical CPAP machine, plan on a battery bank with at least 260 amp hours of capacity. Generally, this means buying four deep cycle (“marine” or “golf cart”) 6 volt batteries, and cabling them in a series-parallel arrangement, to provide 12 Volts, DC. I recommend using 6 gauge cables. Your local golf cart shop should have a 6 gauge cable terminal crimping tool available, and can fabricate the cables for you, for a nominal fee. These days, the copper in the cables will probably cost you much more than the terminals and the labor charge.]

Provent nasal valves.
Provent is made by Ventus Medical Inc., Belmont, California.  These nasal devices were introduced a couple years ago.  They look like a pair of penny-size adhesive bandages.  In the center, each contains a small valve.  Provents are peeled and adhered over each nasal opening.  The valves allow air to easily be inhaled through the nostrils, but when exhaling, the valves close, leaving only a small hole to exhale through.  This creates backpressure which props the airway open much like CPAP.  A chin strap is recommended to keep the mouth closed.  Studies have shown that they are quite effective in treating OSA and are used primarily for people who fail to tolerate CPAP (2).  They are also used by people with OSA who go on extended outdoor trips where there is no electricity.  It requires a doctor’s specific prescription for Provent Therapy and cost about $60 to $70 for a month supply.  Like prescription medications, it could be difficult to stockpile large quantities that would last you many months or years with no electricity. 
See Proventtherapy.com for more information.

Get fitted with an OSA dental appliance now.
This may be the best option, in my opinion.  No power needed.  These are very effective and portable.  I am not referring to the television infomercial “boil and bite” anti-snoring mouth pieces.  Those usually deteriorate within a matter of months.  There are several different styles of dental appliances used to treat OSA.  Very strong materials are used including high tech hard plastics, titanium, micro screws, and springs.  These are not cheap devices.  They can cost anywhere from $1,500 to $5,000 to have them custom molded, fitted, and tested by a dentist specializing in treating OSA with dental devices.  They advance the lower jaw, creating a mild under bite, advancing the tongue, and opening the airway.  Care must be taken to optimize the effectiveness of the appliance without causing temporal mandibular joint (TMJ) problems or pain.  If you wear dentures or have bridges, you will likely not be a candidate for a dental appliance like this. 

See www.abdsm.org for a list of dentists who specialize in this area.    

Positional sleep therapy.
When there are no other options, at least try to sleep on your side with upper body elevated.  A significant angle helps overcome gravity and prevents airway tissues and the tongue from drooping and blocking the airway.  Sleep at angle on a hillside if outdoors.  In your survival retreat, use a wedge or several pillows to significantly elevate your head.  45 to 60 degrees may be required for desired effect.  Many people note an improvement in sleep when in a reclining chair.  It can help.  However, I’ve rarely seen anyone sleep on their side in a recliner.  They are still essentially supine and still can exhibit obstructive apneas and flow-limited breathing.  Sleeping prone is no guarantee of a patent airway either.  I’ve seen many people snore and have respiratory events while sleeping on their stomach.  There are several pillows on the market which claim to treat OSA.  However, your head must stay in the correct position for it to work.  For anyone who has taken a CPR course, you know the head-tilt, chin lift method to opening the airway of an unconscious victim.  This head position would work great at treating obstructive sleep apnea, but who would ever stay in that perfect position while sleeping?  One positional method includes wearing a backpack with a soccer ball or basketball inside.  It prevents turning to supine position while sleeping.  If you are in the woods with a full backpack, wear it while you sleep to stay on your side.  There’s still the possibility of airway collapse when sleeping laterally and elevated but it’s less likely than totally supine.    

Lose weight now.
Obesity is a contributing factor in OSA.  That’s not to say that all obese people have OSA or that slender or fit people don’t have OSA.  People I see in the sleep lab come in all shapes, colors, and sizes.  One of the loudest snorers I’ve ever heard was a petite, middle-aged woman who was 5’ 4” and 125 lbs.  The longest obstructive apneas with the most severe oxygen desaturations I’ve ever seen were exhibited by a man who was 5’10” and 185 lbs.  People can be predisposed to having OSA due to the size of their tongue, tonsils, soft palate, and uvula.  They may have a small and / or recessed chin (micrognathia and retrognathia).  Their neck circumference, alcohol and tobacco use, age, and gender are all contributing risk factors.  However, weight gain is a major cause in developing OSA, especially during middle age.  In a survival situation, calories will be a commodity hard to come by and many will no longer have a choice in the matter.  Today while we still have all the modern conveniences, it’s a lot easier said than done to lose weight and keep it off.  If you are obese, significant weight loss is likely to reduce the severity or presence of OSA but is no guarantee that you will be “cured”.  Your goal should be to get your weight and Body Mass Index (BMI) into a normal range.  Refer to this National Institute of Health chart, to see where you are and where you should be.

Surgical treatments for OSA.
Surgeries are not always the best solution to treating OSA.  All too often, people arrive at the sleep lab and state, “If I have obstructive sleep apnea, I just want to have ‘the’ surgery and fix it once and for all”.  Unfortunately it’s just not that easy.  There are many different types of surgical procedures.  There are too many to go into in this article.  However, I will state that most surgical procedures focus on removing, shrinking or toning the tissues of the upper airway.  Depending on which surgeon is selling you their services and which procedures they specialize in, results vary greatly.  I see many people in the sleep lab who were diagnosed with OSA, disliked CPAP, had surgery, and still had OSA and had to continue with CPAP.  The surgeries are invasive, costly, painful, and require weeks of healing time with no guarantee of success.  The only surefire and drastic way to surgically treat OSA is with a tracheotomy, which people rarely agree to.  Proceed with caution and research the surgeon and the procedure they want to perform on you.

Use Breathe-Right nasal strips to decrease snoring. 
High nasal resistance is a contributing cause to snoring.  Narrow nasal passages, a deviated septum, history of nasal fractures, polyps, and congestion all contribute to increased nasal resistance.  Perform Cottle’s maneuver (3) by placing your index fingers on your cheekbones about an inch under your eyes.  Gently pull the skin on the cheekbones outwards toward your ears.  If you note your nasal passages open and you can move air easier, then you likely have some nasal resistance.  A Breathe-Right strip can help decrease nasal resistance and the likelihood of snoring from nasal issues.  Remember that snoring and OSA are two different things.  Often, Breathe-Right nasal strips do little to alleviate respiratory events caused by a compromised airway in OSA.  However, they are a great adjunct therapy in combination with wearing a CPAP mask or dental appliance to help a person exchange air nasally.  They are extremely small, portable, and light.  I feel that the treatment of snoring is also important as it could be a security risk.  Snoring while outdoors can give away your position, whether in the day or night.

In Summary:
In a world where there is a bed, bedroom, and electrical power, I will take my CPAP any day.  If there is no grid power or I’m out in the wilderness, my strategy would be to sleep laterally with my head elevated, using a dental appliance in conjunction with a chin strap and Breathe-Right nasal strip.  However you decide to manage your OSA in a world without electricity, it is my hope that you find a way to get some quiet, refreshing sleep, as it is imperative to your mental and physical acuities to be alert and sharp in order to survive.
God bless and keep you!

References
1.  Young T, Palta M, Dempsey J, Skatrud J, Weber S, Badr S. The occurrence of sleep-disordered breathing among middle-aged adults. New England Journal of Medicine.  1993;328:1230–1235.

2.  Walsh J, Griffin K, Forst E, Ahmed H, Eisenstein R., Curry D, Hall-Porter J, Schweitzer P.  A convenient expiratory positive airway pressure nasal device for the treatment of sleep apnea in patients non-adherent with continuous positive airway pressure.  Sleep Medicine. 2011;12: 147-152.

3.  Tikanto J, Pirila T.  Effect of the Cottle’s maneuver on the nasal valve as assessed by acoustic rhinometry.  American Journal of Rhinology.  2007 Jul-Aug;21(4):456-9.

About the Author: Chris X. is a Registered Respiratory Therapist, Registered Polysomnographic Technologist, and a Registered Sleep Technologist

Letter Re: Animal Food Sources in TEOTWAWKI, by Michael H.

JWR,
That was an excellent article By Michael H. about chickens. (Animal Food Sources in TEOTWAWKI.”) One thing to consider is that raccoons can reach though chicken wire and dismember the chickens. Small weasels can easily get through chicken wire. It’s better to use 1/4 or 1/2 inch (at the largest) metal hardware cloth for chicken coops and runs.

News From The American Redoubt:

America’s conservative heartland–a lot of it is in the Redoubt and Plains states. This map, courtesy of Nick Gillespie of the Hit & Run blog at Reason.com shows just how conservative the American Redoubt congressional districts are, compared to much of the rest of the nation. (The Republican-held congressional districts are shown in red.)

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The Free State Wyoming forum was “suspended” about six weeks ago, and the members were unable to contact Boston T. Party or discover any reason for the suspension. So they decided to go ahead and establish another forum, called “Wyoming Mavericks” that is independent of FSW. (Click here, for some background.)

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Part of the Monderno team has relocated to Montana.

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R.B.S. sent: 3,600 mink released by activists at Idaho mink farm.

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Montana State Representative Krayton Kerns warns Montanans need to be vigilant about preserving their state’s well-written Stand Your Ground law.

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Reader R.B.S. in Idaho sent: States respond to Idaho’s concealed weapons rules.

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Report from First annual “Northwest Patriot and Self-Reliance Rally”

Economics and Investing:

G.G. sent: The lame jobs report, in eight charts.

News from Spain: Bank bailout fund admits losses have reached 36 billion euros

Consulates and the Vatican in chaos as HSBC tells them to find another bank

Items from The Economatrix:

Full circle: Joblessness at 2008 level

Record Jobs For Old Workers; For Others – Not So Much

Ten Times More Waiter and Bartender Than Manufacturing Jobs Added in 2013

US Factory Orders Miss (Again); Biggest 4-Month Drop in a Year

Odds ‘n Sods:

F.J.R. sent this from MacLife: Eight Apps for Wilderness Survival. The piece begins: “It might seem counterintuitive to rely on a device so associated with the comforts of civilization for survival in the wilds, but a well-prepared iPhone could mean the difference between life and death when stranded in the great outdoors…”

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Let’s hear it for home schools: They are educating kids better than public schools. (Thanks to Bob G. for the link.)

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Mike Williamson’s latest book Tour of Duty: Stories and Provocations will be released tomorrow.

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A privacy-minded reader in Bend, Oregon wrote to mention that he was having trouble finding a .50 BMG bolt action rifle from a private party seller. In the same e-mail he mentioned that he was in the process of parting up several AR-15s. Well, here are a couple of solutions for him: The Ferret .50 or the Safety Harbor .50. Any adult can buy these .50 BMG upper halves by mail order with no FFL paper trail (Form 4473) and then complete it with a generic AR-15 lower.

Notes from JWR:

August 5th is the sad 64th anniversary of the Mann Gulch Fire in Montana that took the lives of 13 firefighters (including 12 smokejumpers and one former smokejumper), in 1949. The intense, fast-moving forest fire was in what later became Gates of the Mountains Wilderness. The events of that fire were chronicled in the book Young Men and Fire by Norman Maclean and immortalized in the haunting lyrics of the ballad Cold Missouri Waters by James Keelaghan. This anniversary of course reminds us of the recent Yarnell Hill fire in Arizona, where 19 hotshots died. Please keep their family members in your prayers.

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After hearing the recent news, it is probably a good time to avoid visiting US embassies, consulates, or other places westerners congregate anywhere in the Islamic world: Senior U.S. Official: Intercepted Al Qaeda Communications Indicate Planned Attack ‘Big,’ ‘Strategically Significant’. FWIW, I think they’ve overlooked giving alerts in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei.

Safer in the City? Statistics Don’t Lie, But They Can Obfuscate

Several readers sent me a link to a study by researchers from the University of Pennsylvania recently published in the Annals of Emergency Medicine that had some surprising results: They concluded that big cities are statistically safer than small towns.

This study, titled Safety in Numbers: Are Major Cities the Safest Places in the United States? has a number of flaws. First, it treats deaths by intentional violence equally with accidental deaths and deaths related to the use of alcohol and illicit drugs. This is not quite fair, because the former are not nearly so avoidable as the latter. If I want to avoid most drunk driving accidents then I can simply abstain from drinking. (Unless of course, it is a drunk that hits my car, or me as a pedestrian.) That means that I can effectively excuse myself from being part of the statistics. But if I want to minimize my chance of getting robbed and shot to death, then I can only do so by changing my ZIP code. And if I want to avoid high speed traffic accidents, I can drive more conservatively. Again, that means that I can in part at least excuse myself from being part of the statistics, or at least lower my actuarial risk.

The “flattening” of volitional differences by the researchers also ignores the psychological impact of various forms of death. All families are of course aggrieved by the loss of a loved one. But consider this: What would be the quality of your sleep for the rest of your life be if your teenage daughter were killed: A.) In a simple highway traffic accident and you never saw her body, or B.) Your home was invaded by a gang, they tied everyone up, and then you witnessed your daughter being violated and then murdered? To a statistician, it is all the same. But to you and me, not all “injury-related” deaths are equal.

Another flaw is that while the University of Pennsylvania study narrowed in on trauma, it ignores lifestyle differences that can contribute to significantly longer life spans that would put then outside of statistical norms. A non-smoking, non-drinking rural person who drives conservatively, drinks pure water, breathes fresh air, eats veggies from his own garden, and who eats local trout and lean venison is probably going to be a “Statistical Outlier“–that is, someone who defies the odds and lives to a ripe old age. And guess what: That is the very definition of a SurvivalBlog reader, or at least what he strives to be, and urges him to where he plans to live.

One other flaw is that the statistics are all based on the county of deaths occurrence, rather than the county of residence of the decedent. (Death certificates are filed in the place where someone assumes room temperature, rather than their Home of Record.) So this ignores neo-local deaths. I can assure you that there are plenty of them in The American Redoubt. The populations of some towns in the Redoubt doubles each summer. Every year in our county, accidental deaths peak in the summer months. That is when the idiotic drivers from western Washington come here to “play.” (And that play often involves drinking and driving fast, or drinking and water skiing.) And then there is hunting season when, again, urbanites come here to release their Inner Idiot. Many of the deaths due to exposure and snowmobile accidents are neo-local. And the only negligent shooting death in recent memory involved out-of-state hunters. Many of these yahoos come from either Seattle or Portland.

Again, there is the flaw of throwing together intentional deaths with unintentional deaths, in drawing the report’s primarily conclusion. Granted, when you are dead, you are dead. But to say that it is more “risky” to live in the country where people often commute long distances at high speed versus in the Big City, where people commute short distances at low speed is not quite fair. Not when part of the offsetting risk of “injury-related” death risk in urban areas comes from instantaneous lead poisoning when you dare to step outdoors after dark. All things being equal, I’d rather face the risk of spinning out on black ice or the risk of a deer coming through my windshield than I would having a twitchy drug addict sticking a pistol in my face and saying: “Your money or your life.”

Notably, I found this proviso buried in the report: “We chose to exclude terrorist-related deaths, the majority of which are associated with the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.” Well, well, that was convenient! When 3,000 people get whacked on a single day, it badly messes up your intention to show that cities are “safer”, doesn’t it? I have a news flash for them: Terrorists regularly target big cities, because that is where population and news cameras are concentrated. They don’t intentionally crash airliners full of screaming passengers into Kansas wheat fields. No! They aim for Manhattan skyscrapers. They don’t set off pressure cooker bombs at 5K Fun Runs in Lander, Wyoming. They choose events like the Boston Marathon, where there are huge crowds and more television reporters than you can count. And when they eventually get their hands on some nukes (and they will), they won’t be be shouting “Allahu Ahkbar” and pressing the button in Miles City, Montana. No, it will more likely be in Los Angeles or Dallas. So someday–most likely in the next 20 years–there will be a great big “Boom!” (or more likely simultaneous “booms” in multiple cities, given their proven modus operandi) potentially with millions of deaths. And that event will absolutely blow their statistics right out of the water. (Or should I say, into mushroom clouds.) Then, and only then, will the statisticians say to themselves: “Gee, maybe it is safer out in the boonies.”

I recently did some web wandering, and gathered some interesting murder statistics, from the most recent years available. (These are mostly 2010 stats.):

Honduras homicide rate: 91 per 100,000 people.

El Salvador homicide rate: 69 per 100,000 people.

Detroit, Michigan homicide rate 58 per 100,000 people.

Flint, Michigan homicide rate per 48 100,000 people.

Colombia homicide rate: 32 per 100,000 people.

Oakland, California homicide rate: 22 per 100,000 people.

Washington, DC homicide rate: 21.9 per 100,000 people.

Richmond, California homicide rate: 20.3 per 100,000 people.

Stockton, California homicide rate: 16.8 per 100,000 people.

Louisiana homicide rate: 11.2 per 100,000 people.

Jersey City, New Jersey homicide rate: 10.2 per 100,000 people.

New York City, New York homicide rate: 6.4 per 100,000 people.

Tennessee homicide rate: 5.8 per 100,000 people.

Chile homicide rate: 5.5 per 100,000 people.

Bolivia homicide rate: 5.3 per 100,000 people.

Ohio homicide rate: 4.1 per 100,000 people.

Montana homicide rate: 2.6 per 100,000 people.

Washington (state) homicide rate: 2.3 per 100,000 people.

Maine homicide rate: 1.8 per 100,000 people.

Boise, Idaho homicide rate: 1.5 per 100,000 people.

Wyoming homicide rate: 1.4 per 100,000 people.

Missoula, Montana homicide rate: 1.4 per 100,000 people.

Idaho homicide rate: 1.3 per 100,000 people.

Vermont homicide rate: 1.1 per 100,000 people.

Newport, Washington homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Condon, Oregon homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Rogue River, Oregon homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Lewiston, Idaho homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Moscow, Idaho homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Bonners Ferry, Idaho homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Bozeman, Montana homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Helena, Montana homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Cody, Wyoming homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

Newcastle, Wyoming homicide rate: 0 per 100,000 people.

It certainly sounds safer, in some respects, out in “The Wild West.”

As for me and mine, we keep our guns handy, and we’ll continue to primarily travel in a big, safe SUV with a massive “Deer Stopper” bumper, in which we carry both a trauma kit and an AED. We’ll take our chances, living out in the country, thanks. – J.W.R.

Tradecraft: Going Jason Bourne, on a Budget

Hollywood movies often show secret agents tossing cell phones out of car windows, and grabbing new ones to activate. In today’s world of almost universal surveillance and tracking, that is actually fairly good tradecraft. When operating in guerrilla warfare mode, a cell phone that is used more than a few times is a liability. So is a cell phone that is “turned off”, but that still has its battery installed. (They can still be tracked.)

In summary, here is some cellular phone tradecraft for times of genuinely deep drama:

1.) Don’t create a paper trail when buying clandestine phones. Pay cash for cell phones and don’t give your name. Preferably buy them in small stores without video surveillance.

2.) Activate phones only as needed.

3.) Never “recharge” the minutes on disposable cell phones. (This leaves a paper trail–at least leading to the place where you bought a recharge “minutes” card. And buying minutes via a phone call and credit card transaction leaves a huge paper trail.)

4.) Set a “phone talk time limit” for your group, depending on the then-current severity of the threat. Once you’ve reached the limit for each phone discard it. (But save the batteries, if they interchange.)

5.) Never program any cell phone numbers into your phone.

6.) Also carry a retained “cover” phone, on which only totally mundane (non-operational) calls are made. If you can make your operational phone disappear, then your cover phone will give you some plausible denial. (But you won’t be Teflon Coated, since the geographical movements of your cover phone can be correlated to operational events or calls from any of your clandestine phones.

7.) Discard phones discreetly, with the batteries removed. Alternatively, you can leave the battery in if you want to lay a trail to confuse those pursuing and you suspect that phone location is being tracked.. (You can mail the phone to a random address that is a thousand miles away. (Use a padded envelope and just drop it in a mail box.) Or you can leave it in a donation box for regional charity. (These charities usually send donated items to a sorting center.)

8.) Keep in mind that cell phone Subscriber Identity Module (SIM) chips are quite compact and can be moved from phone to phone.

Take a look at the history of how Ryan Fogle was bounced out of Russia. He used some very bad tradecraft. Learn from the mistakes of others.

One final tip: Reader Jeff H. mentioned that Tracfone now sell LG800G with 1,200 minutes loaded. The nice thing about these is that their minutes never expire. So this sort of phone would be a great phone to buy and just “tuck away for a rainy day.”