“There are two kinds of people in this world– those who get things done and those who take credit for getting things done. Belong to the first group; there is much less competition.” Francis S. “Frank” Currey, U.S. Army, Medal of Honor.
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Notes for Sunday – June 29, 2014
Today we present another entry for Round 53 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $11,000+ worth of prizes for this round include:
First Prize:
- A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value),
- A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
- Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
- A $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear,
- A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value),
- A $300 gift certificate from Freeze Dry Guy,
- A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo,
- A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com, (currently valued at around $180 postpaid),
- Both VPN tunnel and DigitalSafe annual subscriptions from Privacy Abroad (a combined value of $195),
- KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304,
- APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit, and
- TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $300 gift certificate.
Second Prize:
- A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
- A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
- Acorn Supplies is donating a Deluxe Food Storage Survival Kit with a retail value of $350,
- The Ark Instituteis donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package–enough for two families of four, seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate– a $325 retail value,
- $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P),
- A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials,
- Twenty Five books, of the winners choice, of any books published by PrepperPress.com (a $270 value),
- Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value),
- Dri-Harvestfoods.com in Bozeman, Montana is providing a prize bundle with Beans, Buttermilk Powder, Montana Hard Red Wheat, Drink Mixes, and White Rice, valued at $333,
- TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $150 gift certificate,
- Organized Prepper is providing a $500 gift certificate, and
- RepackBoxis providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.
Third Prize:
- A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
- A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
- Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
- Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security,
- A MURS Dakota Alert Base Station Kit with a retail value of $240 from JRH Enterprises,
- Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
- Ambra Le Roy Medical Products in North Carolina is donating a bundle of their traditional wound care and first aid supplies, with a value of $208, and
- SurvivalBased.com is donating a $500 gift certificate to their store.
Round 53 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
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Making a Bow– An Effective Expedient Weapon, by E.M.
The Story
Imagine yourself in a bug out situation. You have had to abandon your vehicle because a bridge is out, and you can’t go back because your vehicle is hopelessly blocked in by others. You leave your vehicle, taking your vest, your rifle, and your BOB. You head across country toward your retreat, which is about 100 miles away, where you plan to meet your family and friends. You think it will take maybe a week or so to get there. You have three or four days of food and 120 rounds for the rifle. You follow the river downstream toward the next bridge, hoping things won’t get too crazy before you can cross. The river is deep and wide with a swift current this time of year.
Let’s fast forward two days. You are now being pursued by six armed men and are running for your life. You have dropped your BOB somewhere back there, in the hopes that they will stop to retrieve it and give you a little more time to escape, but that hasn’t worked. You don’t think you can take on all of them and survive. At this point, crossing the river is one of your best options for giving them the slip. You are already exhausted, but you have no choice but to plunge in the cold water. A couple of hundred yards out, about half way across, the strain of swimming with your boots, fully clothed, with your vest and rifle is wearing you out, and you realize that you just won’t make it without shedding some of this load. You reluctantly drop your rifle and a little while later your vest. The other shore is drawing closer, but you aren’t sure you will make it. You feel solid ground under your feet at last and drag yourself into the shallows and collapse. You made it by the skin of your teeth and with just what you have in your pockets.
The Goal
This story is just meant to illustrate a scenario where you might end up without your rifle and most of your other gear. I realize that any of us would prefer to have a gun of any sort rather than having to rely on a more primitive weapon, like, for example, a bow, but it’s plausible that you find yourself in a situation where it may be all you have or can fashion for yourself. Tying a string on a bent stick is not going be of much use, but it’s not that hard to make a decent bow with just what you have in your pockets. So, given all that as an introduction, I’d like to give you the basics of making a primitive bow and some arrows you could use to potentially feed and defend yourself until something better comes along.
I don’t make bows for a living and still have much to learn myself. There are many volumes out there that deal with this topic. I’m assuming here you have a knife. I carry a Swiss Army knife that has a blade, scissors, a saw, and screwdrivers among other things. A multi-tool would be great, too. You can make a bow with just a sturdy knife.
Forgive the technical part, but it will help you to make a better bow. Your goal is to impart as much kinetic energy to an arrow as possible. All other things being equal, an arrow with higher kinetic energy will penetrate better and inflict more damage than an arrow with less energy.
(Kinetic energy) Ek=1/2mV2 (one half times the mass of the arrow, times the velocity of the arrow squared)
So, doubling the mass of the arrow will double the energy, but doubling the velocity of the arrow will increase the energy by a factor of four 2×2=4. So a lighter arrow shot from a faster bow is a good strategy for making an effective weapon. Lighter bow limbs and using a faster rebounding species of wood are good guidelines for making an effective bow.
Find Some Wood
The best species are: hickory, ash, osage, mulberry, honey locust, and black locust
Get familiar with these species; you will find at least one of these growing in all parts of the continental U.S.
Hickory is common in the eastern U.S. and is very forgiving when it comes to making bows. Even an imperfect job of bow making will likely give you a serviceable bow. It is hard, tough, and difficult to split. It does not snap back to shape as quickly as some other potential bow woods but will still produce a good expedient bow.
Ash is a good bow wood. It’s not as tough as hickory but springs back well and is generally straight-grained and easier to split.
Osage orange, also called hedge apple or Bois d’arc, is probably the best bow wood in North America. The heart wood is bright yellow, and, if the tree is straight-grained, it will split fairly easily. It springs back very quickly and will make either a long bow or flat bow. It is more difficult to work than some of the other woods. Osage is more sensitive to mistakes but will make the best bow, if your workmanship is good.
Mulberry is similar to osage in its properties and color; however, the tree looks totally different. The specimens I have worked had a lot of knots and twisted grain. If you can find a straight tree, you can make a good bow from mulberry.
Other woods that will make a good bow are black locust and honey locust. Honey locust is unmistakable with its massive clusters of thorns. If you find one, hang on to some of the thorns; you can use them to make a lot of useful things, like needles, gigs, and fish hooks.
Splitting and cutting. Look for a tree without a lot of branches in the section that you plan to use. Straight, even bark structure can sometimes indicate that the wood beneath is straight grained too. This is not a sure bet but working with straight grained wood will make this a lot easier. You can use trunk wood, or branch wood. Wood from a tree that has been struck by lightning can sometimes be splintered at the stump, leaving pieces of the tree sticking up that can be used. Make sure the piece is sound with no flaws or cracks. Saplings are tempting but don’t work as well. They are mostly sap wood and not as strong as wood from a larger tree. Cutting the stave can be done with whatever you have– a wire saw, a Swiss army knife/multi-tool saw, hatchet, machete, or a knife if it’s all you have and flint as a last resort.
Shaping. Rough it out with a machete or hatchet, if you have one, or a knife if you don’t. In extremity, you can use flint, if available. Using flint will take much, much longer, and you have to change your mindset and level of patience and expectation. Use a sharp edged piece of a pound or two in weight to do the heavy and rough cutting. This will work better if you can attach it to a handle of some sort. Use thinner flakes to scrape and serrated flakes to saw and cut parts, like the arrow nocks. Working the flint to make these kind of tools is beyond the scope of this article. This is something you might want to play with for a few hours when the pressure is off on a Saturday afternoon.
Bow Shapes. There are two basic shapes for primitive bows– the longbow and the flat bow. Long bows are usually five or six feet long and somewhere in the 1-1.25 in wide range near the handle, tapering to .5” or so at the tips. The depth of the limb– the distance from front to back– tapers from tip to handle, and the cross section of the limb is a deep D with the flatter section on the back, facing away from the user. Some woods can’t take the compressive stress on the belly of the bow and won’t make good long bows. If you have this problem, the grain of the wood will “collapse” or indent on the belly. Since the wood choice and quality is more critical when making a longbow, this style may not be the best bet for a survival situation. A longer longbow is less likely to break but also would give you less cast for the same cross section.
Flat Bows. There are a lot of advantages in going with a flat bow. Most Native Americans used flat bows. The bows are shorter (under five feet) and wider than longbows; flat bows are generally 2- 2.5 inches wide on either side of the handle, tapering to .5 to .75 at the tip. The design can be more forgiving, since the bending force comes from the width, not the depth. The stress on the wood is less, which means that it is less likely to break.
The Back of the Bow. (This is the surface facing away from you when you shoot) It should be made from the surface of the wood that was facing the bark. If there is sap wood, it is generally better to shave that off for the types of wood discussed here. Follow a single grain boundary all the way down the length. Follow any curves or waviness in the grain. Don’t worry if it is straight, just be very sure you follow one grain layer down the whole length. You may want to finish the bow to the last grain layer after the drying step.
The Belly of the Bow. (The part of the bow facing the user is the belly.) This should be slightly rounded so that a cross section of the bow at any point would be a flattened D shape. Follow any major grain where possible, especially on the last 1/3 of the limbs.
The Handle. Make the handle about 1-1 ¼” in diameter and blend the elongated “D” shape of the bow limbs to a round or “D” shape at the handle. Make this section 5-6 inches long. You can either rest the arrow on your index finger as you shoot or you can cut a shelf into the side of the bow just above where your hand rests.
The Width. Taper from about ½ to ¾ inch at the tips to max width about 5 inches above and below the center of the bow.
Drying. Wet wood will not make a useable bow. It will take too much of a permanent set, (called string follow). Use heat from a fire or coals to quickly dry the wood. You must be very careful and pay very close attention. Don’t damage your roughed out bow by burning or charring. You want heat, not fire. Of course this is not ideal. Bow makers use well-seasoned wood with controlled moisture content. You will not have that luxury but should still get a decent bow. This is a good time to straighten the limbs if they need it. The heat and moisture in the wood will make it pliable and allow you to straighten minor problems.
Finishing. As you get closer to the finished shape, use the edge of your knife/flint to scrape the wood. Hold it at right angles to the surface to shave very small amounts at a time from the bow.
Even before you get the bow to the point that it looks close to finished, put some temporary nocks on the ends of the limb and tie paracord or some other string material that will take the stress and put a bend in the bow and look at the shape. This is called tillering. If it bends evenly, that’s good; if not, take a few more scrapes off the belly of the bow on the limb that isn’t bending as much. Once you get down to a single grain layer on the back of the bow, you should never touch the back again. Don’t go crazy trying to get it to bend perfectly. If you take off too much, it will either break at full draw or be too weak to be of any use.
Bow Strings
The best bowstring material is one that is strong enough to carry the load of the fully-drawn bow and one that will not stretch. You want the bow limbs to be propelling the arrow, not the rubber band effect you get with a stretchy string. Dacron is the material that most bow strings are made of. The core of some paracord might be twisted into a decent string. The outer sleeve of the paracord might be okay, too, if you stretch it well first, since it is braided. A good boot lace could work, too.
Wild plant fibers might not be your best bet for a bow string. Plant fibers are usually only strong enough for a light bow, or else the string diameter gets too big. This also depends on your skill at twisting fibers. If you want to go this way, any yucca-like plant will have strong fiber in the leaves that can be extracted and used to make a bow string. Pound the leaves, soak them in water, separate out the fibers, and get all of the leaf pulp off of them, allow to dry before using.
Sinew works too. It should be cleaned and twisted together while moist into a string. These are very subject to stretching if they get wet or even with high humidity. Gut will also make a bow string. Multiple thicknesses of cleaned, dried gut will work. It has the same problems as sinew; it stretches with moisture and humidity. A good tight twist in the string will limit the stretch. you may need to let the string stretch, unstring your bow and shorten it, and repeat a couple of times before a string made from natural materials will have stabilized There is no need to get fancy with the loops on the ends of your bow string, a bowline knot works well (hence the name). If you leave a wooden bow strung for long periods, the wood will take a set and it will lose strength. It is best to unstring your bow when possible. It’s also not a good idea to “dry fire” a wooden bow. The energy that normally goes into the arrow goes back into the limbs and can cause a fracture.
So now your bow is to its final shape, you have scraped it down to smooth it as much as possible. The next thing to do is to seal the surface. You may be thinking that you don’t care about this, but sealing the surface will prevent it from absorbing moisture and losing strength. Any kind of oily substance– berries or seeds– is good, but a waxy substance is even better. Put some of the oily or wax substance on the bow. Now burnish the surface of the bow. Take an approximately 1” diameter stick from some kind of hard wood, making sure the surface is as smooth as you can make it with your knife. Hold it at right angles to the bow, press down hard and rub vigorously back and forth. This will compress the surface of the wood and if you are doing it right you will see that the bow is becoming shiny. This will help reduce absorption of moisture.
Arrows
Materials Needed:
Shafts-
- Small bamboo species,
- reeds,
- blueberry shoots,
- dogwood shoots, anything that is between ¼ and 1/2“ in diameter and about 3 feet long.
You want to start out with a longer piece than the finished arrow to allow for tuning the arrow. Remember that a lighter arrow gives better performance but it must be stiff enough to fly straight.
Adhesives. There are not a lot of natural adhesives out there. Pine resin, when heated, can be used to seat points prior to wrapping with sinew or string. It can also be used for attaching fletchings. It’s not the best, but there are not many choices out there.
Thread. Threads from the middle of a piece of paracord or boot lace can work well for attaching the arrowhead, the fletchings, and for reinforcing the shaft below the nock. Sinew is the best natural material for binding the arrow head on. Spider silk can work if you live in an area like the South, where Banana spiders live. They make really big webs. Yucca fiber can work, too.
Selecting bamboo. Use small species bamboo (not a young piece of larger bamboo). Look for pieces that are as straight as possible, with small straight joints, about ¼ to ½ “ in diameter. The older canes are better. Bamboo is probably your best choice if available, since it is hollow and will be light and stiff.
Hardwood shoots. Look for shoots from blueberries, dogwood, viburnum, or any solid, straight sprout of the right diameter.
Splits. If you find a splintered tree or stump that has been struck by lightning, there are sometimes splinters big enough to be used for arrows. Shave them down to about the right size with your knife. It is more important to the flight of the arrow that they be straight than that they be perfectly round.
Straightening. Any freshly cut wood or bamboo can be straightened with heat. Heat the area to be straightened evenly by holding it near a flame or coals and rotating it. It needs to be hot enough that you can barely touch it. Once it is heated carefully, straighten it and hold it in that position until it cools. Once the wood is dry, this won’t work as well.
Nock. Make the final nock about ¼ “ deep and no more than 1/3 the width of the arrow shaft at the smaller end. Smooth the nock carefully or you could damage your bowstring. Wrap the arrow shaft tightly with thread or sinew just beyond the base of the nock to prevent the arrow shaft from splitting. If you are using bamboo shafts either make the nock just above a joint or carve a piece of hardwood to just slip inside the bamboo at the nock end and long enough to reach the next joint carve a nock as before and reinforce with thread or sinew. This will keep the bamboo from splitting.
Length/tuning. Do this before putting any fletchings on the arrow. The length of your arrows will vary according to the stiffness of the arrow, the weight of the point, and the style of arrow rest. The arrows flex when you release the string. This is affected by the stiffness and point weight. For a given arrow you tune the stiffness by making it shorter. Since making it longer is not generally an option, you start with a longer shaft and trim a little off at a time and re-nock it until it shoots right. “Right” is when the arrow flexes around the handle in such a way as to fly straight and hit the target straight on. In other words, not slanted to the left or right as it sticks into the target. You will know it when you see it. If the arrow doesn’t stick in straight in the vertical direction, you may be holding the arrow at the wrong point on the string. It should be just a little, maybe one arrow’s thickness, above the rest.
If you have a heavy shaft and want to make it lighter, you can shave it down with the edge of the knife blade. This will reduce the stiffness, so it may need to be shortened to shoot right from your bow. Having said all this about tuning arrows to your bow. You can shoot just about anything, but accuracy will suffer a lot. If you can take some time to dial in your arrow, it will make you more effective with the bow.
Point. Anything sharp with cutting edges is a plus. Hammered bottle caps, flint chips, broken glass, a sharpened piece of hardwood, or bone can be used. You will want the balance to be weighted forward. So if the shaft is tapered, always put the thick end forward. For an un-tapered shaft, the weight of the tip will help bring the balance point forward. Flint knapping is beyond the scope of this article, but both broken glass and flint make good points as long as it’s sharp and pointed, it will do the job. Of course, if you hit a rock or tree you may have to replace it. Notice that almost all the flint arrowheads you find are broken.
For small game and birds a blunt point is effective. The shock of impact stuns or kills them. For bigger stuff, a sharp point with cutting edges is ideal. A wider, flatter point will do more damage to the target. Try to avoid any abrupt transitions from the point to the arrow shaft; taper and blend it as much as possible. Pine resin works well for this when heated and formed.
Fletching. Use feathers, if you can find them. Ideally, use the flight feathers from a turkey, goose, duck, gull, or other similar sized bird. Otherwise use your imagination with plastic, paper, leather, duct tape, and so on. If the arrows are tuned and balanced well, you can keep the fletchings smaller. Glue them with resin and tie them on with small thread by winding through the individual fibers of the feather. For other fletching materials, glue, tie, or tape on as your materials and imagination allow. Many cultures use two fletchings, but most use three or four. Three is what I usually go with. Look at pictures of Native American arrows. Some have novel ways of adding the fletchings that don’t require glue or resin.
I know this all sounds like a lot of work, but with a little practice, and a machete or hatchet, it can be done in an afternoon. If you are stuck using a pocket knife, it will be a longer job. Just think of it as an extended whittling session.
I think it’s worth your while to look for some suitable wood and spend an afternoon giving this a try. If the time comes that you need to do it, you will be way ahead of the game.
Some good resources for those that would like to give this a try are:
- The Traditional Boyer’s Bible, Vol 1, Edited by Jim Hamm, ISBN 978-1585740857
- Bows and Arrows of the Native Americans, Jim Hamm, ISBN 978-1558211681
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Letter: Confiscation of Stored Foods
There is quite a bit of “buzz” going on that the DHS will come in and take stored foods.
What might you know about this and what are the odds? I know, with this admin anything goes, but I think it is certainly worth addressing. – P.W.
Hugh Replies: That is the whole point of OPSEC, but practically speaking, the DHS isn’t who you will have to worry about, unless you are a grocery store or warehouse. Anything smaller than that isn’t worth dealing with when you factor in the manpower and risks to personnel. The danger for individuals comes from the parent of the family down the street who didn’t plan ahead and now has four starving children on their hands. There is no boundary that a normal mother will not cross regarding the survival of her own children. Given society’s propensity towards situational ethics, the average person will see no problem in killing you to take your larder on about the 4th day that they have no food and no hope. If they do see a problem, they will simply rationalize it away. This is the reason you need OPSEC from your own neighbors. If you live in a town, I fully expect the “provisional” government in TEOTWAWKI to institute laws that allow the confiscation of supply items from any individual deemed a “hoarder”. You need a community to survive, but there is no reason for any member of that community to know everything about every member.
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Odds ‘n Sods:
Confronting Cops After They Shoot His Dog. – RBS
An undefensible action on the part of the police. A dog, that is properly contained, is shot and killed because the officer trespassed on the property in the course of an action unrelated to the property or dog owner.
o o o
Barney Fife Meets Delta Force. – B.B.
We’ve posted on this particular action before, but I found the title of this piece and the corresponding reporting to be an accurate description of the problem.
o o o
Recruits’ Ineligibility Tests the Military – T.P.
More Than Two-Thirds of American Youth Wouldn’t Qualify for Service, Pentagon Says. Six words describe why today’s youth is failing military entry standards: “Fat, Dumb, Tatted Up, and Gauged”
o o o
Massachusetts SWAT teams claim they’re private corporations, immune from open records laws. – H.L.
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Hugh’s Quote of the Day:
“But what things were gain to me, those I counted loss for Christ.” – Phillipians 3:7 (KJV)
Notes for Saturday – June 28, 2014
June 28, 1703 was the birth day of John Wesley, who died March 2nd, 1791.
o o o
Today we present another entry for Round 53 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $11,000+ worth of prizes for this round include:
First Prize:
- A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value),
- A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
- Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
- A $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear,
- A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value),
- A $300 gift certificate from Freeze Dry Guy,
- A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo,
- A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com, (currently valued at around $180 postpaid),
- Both VPN tunnel and DigitalSafe annual subscriptions from Privacy Abroad (a combined value of $195),
- KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304,
- APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit, and
- TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $300 gift certificate.
Second Prize:
- A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
- A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
- Acorn Supplies is donating a Deluxe Food Storage Survival Kit with a retail value of $350,
- The Ark Instituteis donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package–enough for two families of four, seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate– a $325 retail value,
- $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P),
- A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials,
- Twenty Five books, of the winners choice, of any books published by PrepperPress.com (a $270 value),
- Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value),
- Dri-Harvestfoods.com in Bozeman, Montana is providing a prize bundle with Beans, Buttermilk Powder, Montana Hard Red Wheat, Drink Mixes, and White Rice, valued at $333,
- TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $150 gift certificate,
- Organized Prepper is providing a $500 gift certificate, and
- RepackBoxis providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.
Third Prize:
- A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
- A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
- Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
- Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security,
- A MURS Dakota Alert Base Station Kit with a retail value of $240 from JRH Enterprises,
- Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
- Ambra Le Roy Medical Products in North Carolina is donating a bundle of their traditional wound care and first aid supplies, with a value of $208, and
- SurvivalBased.com is donating a $500 gift certificate to their store.
Round 53 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
Geocaching for Preppers, by R.H.
As preppers we are under some pressure. We are naturally concerned about water purification, food storage, defensive weapons, bug out locations, and the list of challenges is seemingly endless. We worry about a total collapse of the financial world, a global pandemic, solar flares, or other crisis. There is certainly no shortage of concerns. Have we done enough? Do we have enough? Are we knowledgeable enough? Once in a while, I think we should all take a deep breath, relax, and have some fun!
What follows is a brief explanation of Geocaching– a fun activity that can be easily adapted to actually benefit your prepping.
For those that are not familiar with the term, Geocaching is an outdoor game akin to treasure hunting that uses the Global Positioning System (GPS). Geocachers use a GPS unit to navigate to a set of coordinates that are published on a website (Geocaching.com) and then attempt to find the geocache hidden at that location.
What is a geocache? It is usually a container that can be as small as the head of a bolt (a very small cache is called a “nano”) or as large as a vehicle. (I have found caches as large as a Volkswagen bus and an industrial air conditioner unit!) Usually, a regular sized cache is hidden in an old military ammo can or some Tupperware.
Geocaching was started in 2000. On May 2, the “Big Blue Switch” was thrown and 24 satellites worldwide instantly improved and upgraded civilian GPS technology. The next day, Dave Ulmer tested the accuracy of the new technology by hiding a black bucket with a log book in the woods near Beaver Creek, Oregon. He noted the GPS coordinates and published them on a website to see if others could find what he had hidden. Mike Teague found the “stash” first, and the new sport/game/hobby was born. The term Geocaching was first coined by Matt Stum by the end of that same month. The name was taken from “geo” (meaning Earth) and “cache” (the French word to describe a hiding place to temporarily store items or provisions).
First off, to get into Geocaching you need to be just a bit technical. You will need a GPS unit (or a smart phone) and access to the Internet. Go to www.Geocaching.com and click on “learn” for more information and a tutorial. You can begin to play immediately . . . for FREE! A basic membership is no charge. Pick a username and a password and off you go! One may purchase a premium membership for a small fee, but it is not necessary.
On the website, you can search for geocaches near your location, wherever that might be. At this writing there are nearly 2,500,000 caches worldwide and more than six million geocachers. Caches are everywhere– in cities, towns, forests, cemeteries, historical locations, and even on the International Space Station! You will probably be astounded at the number of geocaches in your neighborhood.
Once you get the coordinates of a cache, use your GPS to guide you to the area of the cache. The cache will be well hidden, and you will probably have to do some searching. Once you find the cache, you sign a paper log that is contained within the cache to prove that you found it and later sign the electronic log on the website to score a find. The website keeps count of your finds and their locations. The cache may also include “swag,” a term for items that you can trade.
All right, it’s an interesting, fun, or even a strange game, but why is it of any interest to a prepper? Consider the points to follow, and you may find that Geocaching could be a perfect fit to your preparation, skill acquisition, and training.
First, you will become very familiar and even adept at using a GPS unit. If you currently have a GPS, do you really know how to use it? Have you calibrated it? What about TEOTWAWKI? It is expected that the GPS system will stay operational for at least a little while after a catastrophic event, but your experience learned while engaged in Geocaching will also include learning about maps, topographical features, and latitude and longitude coordinates. This game has very similar characteristics with orienteering and your skill with a compass will benefit you as well. I always have a compass with me when Geocaching, and both the GPS and the compass will become your new best friends.
You will soon find that your attention to detail will improve, drastically. You will be looking for anything that appears to be out of the ordinary– a rock that is not like others in the area or fallen tree branches that seemed to be piled up against the base of a tree. Remember that a cache could be any number of things. I once found a cache inside of what looked like a discarded ink pen on a busy urban outdoor mall. Many rural caches are found by observing a “geo-trail” of vegetation that is tramped down, thereby indicating that a number of people walked through an area. As a result, your “tracking” skills will also improve. This situational awareness can serve you well in times of strife and stress.
The caches themselves will teach you about camouflage. You will be amazed at some of the detail and time spent to hide caches, sometimes in plain sight. It becomes obvious as to what patterns and colors to use to match the particular surroundings. This knowledge can extend into the camouflaging of your equipment and bug-out gear. This goes for urban as well as rural environments. Some of the best camouflaged geocaches that I have found have been in urban settings.
Also, geocaching can prepare you for caching! If you have a prepper interest in caching certain items for safekeeping, Geocaching will teach you what types of containers stay dry, how and where to successfully hide containers, and how to erase signs of you being at the cache site. Naturally, Geocaching never involves the actual caching of weapons, ammunition, food items, and so forth, but lessons learned by one activity can benefit the other.
Geocaching will get you outside and in nature. You will learn about local flora and fauna while engaged in the game. I have seen some great natural sights and memorable glimpses of wildlife while Geocaching. If Geocaching in rural areas, you will eventually learn about poison ivy, ticks, snakes, chiggers, bears, sabre-toothed cats, and Bigfoot, and how to avoid them all (or whatever you confront)!
This sport will get you out in parks, back roads, trails, and other public lands in your area. You will become more familiar with these locations that may become very important in the event of TEOTWAWKI. Of course, there is the added benefit of visiting places that you have not been before. All of my vacations now include a bit of Geocaching. Geocaching may take you near to a spot that could be considered for a bug out location or you may discover an alternate route home from work. At any rate, you will be hiking, which is great exercise and preparation for any situation that may occur. If you add a couple of water bottles, lunch fixings, and a backpacker’s stove to a day bag, you have a built-in TEOTWAWKI and bug-out training session that is actually fun to do and provides healthy exercise. You could even break in those new hiking boots that you scored on sale.
Speaking of fun, Geocaching is a family game. Most of the regular-sized caches contain trading items that keep children interested in the game. Even teens can get caught up in an adventure involving an extreme Geocaching goal. Remember that a few caches are challenging in both the surrounding terrain and the difficulty of the cache itself. There are mountaintop caches, underwater caches, caches in caves, puzzle caches, and the list goes on. Geocaching is an activity that can include the entire family and can have “teachable moments”, like learning how far is too far to walk with a day pack or which rain gear works without making you sweat out precious water.
While Geocaching, you will meet others who enjoy the outdoors, maybe presenting some networking possibilities. Geocachers are nice folk. Please, always keep OPSEC in your mind though. You may or may not find like-minded individuals, although Geocaching is popular with scouting and church groups and has been used for team building exercises for youth groups and leadership forums. You will also meet business owners, managers, custodians, park staff, and others who would like to know just what the heck you are doing!
Geocaching events are held regularly and enable geocachers to meet and network with each other. These events count as caches and enable you to put a face with the name that you have been seeing on those cache logs in the neighborhood.
Speaking of meeting others, for the most part you want to be as stealthy as possible, while actually seeking a cache. Non-geocachers (termed “Muggles”) find it difficult to understand what you are doing. They may be suspicious of you or your activity even though it is harmless. You will want to try to blend in (another prepper skill) to avoid their scrutiny. The point is to keep the cache location secret so as not to have the cache stolen or destroyed. It is best to try to become a Gray Man and not arouse anyone’s interest. I find that walking my dog provides the best “cover” while looking for a cache and we both get some exercise too. I know of geocachers who wear an orange safety vest and carry a clipboard for “hiding in plain sight!”
For me, the most enjoyable part of Geocaching is going somewhere that I would not have ordinarily gone. Geocaching has taken me to historic places, scenic places, out-of-the-way natural wonders, great little restaurants and even foreign countries. Give it a try with a slant toward preparing for the worst and . . . have some fun!
Letter Re: Becoming The Bank In TEOTWAWKI
Hugh,
What JM is describing is a Pawn Shop. I owned and operated one for five years. A pawn shop is the “Bank” for the 20 percent (maybe more now) people in the lowest economic strata.
The description of the building and accoutrements to do business as JM sees it will not be cheap to acquire, so if your plan is “You won’t be able to act as our current-day, money-grubbing, greedy banksters do.” You might not be able to stay in the business of helping people.
Pawn shops in Idaho, Texas, Florida, and some other states allow interest of 240 percent. In California pawn loans above $2500.00 rates are negotiable. I operated in California and charging the max rate at the time, which amounted to 100 percent per year average and with $150,000 in loans it was difficult to make a profit.
I do not think the current banks loaning money at current rates are the “banksters” in my opinion. It is the traders that are causing the image. I currently have business bank loans at five percent, and I don’t think my banker is a “bankster”.
I encourage you to work up a business Proforma and see what expenses you will be up against and then determine how much you should charge for your service. Of course, you might want to be 100 percent charitable during the TEOTWAWKI situation that you envision and then it will not matter what you earn from your efforts.
I just wanted to point out my experience with being the bank. It might take a little re-engineering to get to the goal of being the bank during very difficult times. – B.F.
Odds ‘n Sods:
Pastor Chuck Baldwin: Shepherds, Sheep, Goats, Wolves, And Guard Dogs
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Federal judge upholds Colorado gun laws, dismisses lawsuit – H.L.
This was the expected outcome of the court hearing. The law is stupid, but no one can show that they have been hurt by the law. It’s a shame that someone will have to be seriously injured or possibly die, needing more than 15 rounds, before the court will strike the law down.
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Survival Entertainment, Friend or Foe? An exclusive interview with Cody Lundin. – C.N.
As you will read in the (long) interview, it is meant to be a catalyst for change in where people get their information, i.e. not from a TV producer who knows squat and doesn’t care but from a reputable source with experience. This is something I know Survival Blog readers will identify with.
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Tomgram: Peter Van Buren, What We’ve Lost Since 9/11 (Part 2). – K.T.
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Hugh’s Quote of the Day:
“Your country is desolate, your cities are burned with fire: your land, strangers devour it in your presence, and it is desolate, as overthrown by strangers.” – Isaiah 1:7 (KJV)
Notes for Friday – June 27, 2014
By way of our friend Tam at the View From the Porch blog, we heard the sad news of the passing of veteran firearms trainer Louis Awerbuck. He served with the 1st Special Services Battalion in the South African Defence Force (SADF) and later went on to be a world-class combat shooting instructor, eventually becoming the lead instructor with Yavapai Firearms Academy. Lou became a Shooting Master under the tutelage of Colonel Jeff Cooper and other Old School instructors at Gunsite Ranch. He was Gunsite’s Chief Rangemaster until 1987. He in turn passed his knowledge and skills on to thousands of his own students. (Yavapai Firearms Academy conducted mobile training from Texas to Alaska, and even behind enemy lines in California. Lou was the author of the book Plowshares Into Swords: Musings of a Different Drummer, which is a compilation of his SWAT magazine articles. He will be greatly missed. – J.W.R.
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Also, Eli Wallach, who was made famous by the role of the bandito Calvera in The Magnificent Seven has died.
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June 27th is the birthday of economist Dr. Ravi Batra, born in 1943.
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Today we present another entry for Round 53 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $11,000+ worth of prizes for this round include:
First Prize:
- A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value),
- A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
- Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
- A $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear,
- A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value),
- A $300 gift certificate from Freeze Dry Guy,
- A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo,
- A roll of $10 face value in pre-1965 U.S. 90% silver quarters, courtesy of GoldAndSilverOnline.com, (currently valued at around $180 postpaid),
- Both VPN tunnel and DigitalSafe annual subscriptions from Privacy Abroad (a combined value of $195),
- KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304,
- APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit, and
- TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $300 gift certificate.
Second Prize:
- A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
- A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
- Acorn Supplies is donating a Deluxe Food Storage Survival Kit with a retail value of $350,
- The Ark Instituteis donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package–enough for two families of four, seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate– a $325 retail value,
- $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P),
- A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials,
- Twenty Five books, of the winners choice, of any books published by PrepperPress.com (a $270 value),
- Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value),
- Dri-Harvestfoods.com in Bozeman, Montana is providing a prize bundle with Beans, Buttermilk Powder, Montana Hard Red Wheat, Drink Mixes, and White Rice, valued at $333,
- TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $150 gift certificate,
- Organized Prepper is providing a $500 gift certificate, and
- RepackBoxis providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.
Third Prize:
- A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
- A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
- Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
- Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security,
- A MURS Dakota Alert Base Station Kit with a retail value of $240 from JRH Enterprises,
- Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
- Ambra Le Roy Medical Products in North Carolina is donating a bundle of their traditional wound care and first aid supplies, with a value of $208, and
- SurvivalBased.com is donating a $500 gift certificate to their store.
Round 53 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
Thoughts on Planning Your Bug Out, by R.G.
Making a decision to bug out is always an individual choice, based on your own situation and local conditions. My wife and I live in the Virginia Beach area. While Virginia Beach may not come to mind when one makes a list of major metropolitan areas, the Hampton Roads area (Virginia Beach, Norfolk, and Newport News) has a population of more than 1.7 million people. The Elizabeth River, Nansemond River, James River, and several smaller rivers all empty into the Chesapeake Bay at Hampton Roads, necessitating highway bridges and tunnels with resulting traffic delays throughout the area. The population density and the numerous river crossing choke points makes it imperative for us to make our bug out decision early and act quickly to “head for the hills.”
We’ve made the assessment that our home will be virtually indefensible in a SHTF situation. Our single family, 2-story home is located in a large suburban community of upper middle class homes with lower income communities and apartment buildings only a couple of miles in any direction. Additionally, we are located at the front of the community with easy access to our property from three sides. Our home is a basic frame building with no basement and very little in the way of protection from rioters, looters, or marauders. As such, we belong to a well-planned, well-equipped survival community (retreat) in the North Carolina hills about 200 miles from home. We feel that things will work out for us when it hits the fan, if we can get to our bug out location; however, transiting from Hampton Roads to our retreat is our biggest concern. This article will touch on a few of our considerations for bugging out.
Have a good plan
A well-considered, thorough, flexible and detailed plan is the basis for any successful operation; be it a business start-up, a military strategy or a Boy Scout trip. The same is true for bugging out. Making decisions on the fly can result in forgotten items, missed opportunities, or unsafe situations that could have been easily avoided with a little advanced planning. We have a detailed written plan that we spent hours thinking through, more hours drafting, and even more hours rethinking and modifying. We review and modify our bug out plan regularly, as our personal requirements change, our preps change, or we learn more about various travel routes. The most obvious part of our plan is our route from home to the retreat. We decided that we need at least five routes out of the metropolitan area and three different routes that would get us safely the rest of the way to the retreat. We first checked maps, looked at Google Earth, and drove each route. Then, we took Google Maps screen shots of each route and combined them with Street View photos and satellite pictures of relevant turn points and rendezvous locations to give a combined map, satellite and photo description of each route. We also designated several rendezvous points along each route in case we get separated and have photos of each location included with the route info. A copy of our plan and all of our route info, along with state and local “paper” maps, is stored in each of our vehicles.
We decided early on to take both of our vehicles if the situation permits. We will weigh the pros and cons of using one or two vehicles as our local and national situation develops. If we get out early, as planned, using both vehicles with full gas tanks, should be no problem. Next, we made detailed lists of what we would keep in our bug-out-bags and what preps, equipment, tools, weapons, provisions, water, and other items we would pack into each vehicle. Bug-out-bags have been discussed many times in this blog, so I will not address that issue here. We feel that having a detailed list of what to pack into each vehicle will minimize our confusion and the time required to pack up, while reducing the chance of us omitting a critical item in our haste. It also reminds us to cover everything with a blanket or tarp, so that it isn’t quite as obvious what we are carrying. Here is a portion of our bug out vehicle packing list (with many personal items intentionally omitted):
Vehicle #1: Pick-up truck
Bug-out-bag #1
- Glock 17 Glock 30
- 12 gauge shot gun
- Water and snacks for the drive
- Cell phone and charger
- Maps and bug-out plan
- Truck first aid and emergency bin
- half of stored ammo
- C/B Radio
- Two bins of camping gear
- Mountain bikes and pump
- ½ of stored provisions
- Chainsaw
- Portable generator
- Two 5-gallon water containers
- Two gallon cans of gas with Two cycle oil added
- Three 5-gallon cans of gas
- Garden tools
- Coleman stove and fuel bottles
- Tool pouch and tool box
- Winter clothes
- Extra clothes (one duffle bag each)
- Fire extinguishers
- Walkie Talkie
Vehicle #2: Small SUV
Bug-out-bag #2
- .38 Special Ruger LCP
- AR-15
- Water and snacks for the drive
- Cell phone and charger
- Maps and bug-out plan
- SUV first aid and emergency bin
- ½ of stored ammo
- ½ of stored provisions
- One 5-gallon water container
- Small tool box
- Winter clothes
- Extra clothes (one duffle bag each)
- Pots and pans
- Walkie Talkie
- First aid kits from bathrooms
- Current Rx Meds
- Hygiene items from bathrooms and linen closet
Other items that are covered in our bug-out-plan include: important papers and documents prepackaged in a convenient carry case; a list of valuables to be gathered up and procedures for securing our residence prior to departing; communications using cellphones, walkie talkies, or light signals; food and water for the trip, if we are delayed; emergency actions enroute; rendezvous procedures if we get separated; weapons procedures, and contact information for our retreat community members.
Bug out goals and considerations: After much consideration, we settled on four goals for bugging out. 1. Arrive at our bug out location safely and together. 2. Attract as little attention from strangers as possible (OPSEC). 3. Arrive with as much provisions and ammunition as possible. 4. Arrive with as much fuel in our vehicle fuel tanks and gas cans as possible.
Goal #1: Arrive at bug out location safely and together. This is by far the most important consideration for us. Staying together, avoiding problems, and getting to our destination with as little trouble as possible are imperatives. All of our planning for after SHTF is for naught if we cannot get to our retreat community and our pre-positioned preps in North Carolina. We have a few weeks of provisions and preps at home, but the indefensibility of our home and its metropolitan location makes bugging out imperative in many situations.
Perhaps the most important decision will be to get out of town early. We want to be well ahead of the crowds and traffic jams that will surely clog the tunnel and bridge choke points in Hampton Roads at the start of all our routes. We will keep a close watch on the situation using all available means of gathering information and be alert for any changes that may affect or delay us. Local government web sites will be checked for road closures and construction that may force us to alter our route. If we get nervous, we will take the day off from work or call in sick to remain at home and be ready to hit the road. As things develop, we will prepare our home by boarding up the windows and securing the water, among other things. Additionally, we will gather all the items on our lists and pre-stage them all at a central location in the house so that packing will be easier and faster. (If you haven’t practiced packing up for a bug out, know that it will take much longer than you expect!) As the situation develops, we may even load up the vehicles and keep them securely out of sight to enable a hasty departure. If the situation doesn’t require an immediate departure, we will try to time our leaving home for the quietest time on our local roads (usually between 2 AM and 3 AM.)
Leaving our home unoccupied will be a tough decision; however, once we make the decision to bug out, we will not delay or procrastinate. We’ll change into bug out clothes (hiking boots & socks, hiking pants, tee shirt, hiking shirt, and jacket/coat as dictated by weather), arm up, pack up, secure our home as best we can, and get on the move. For added security, we’ll carry weapons in accordance with our concealed carry permits. If we haven’t already done so, we’ll fill our gas tanks at our local 24 hour gas station and not stop again until we get well past the Hampton Roads metro area.
Goal #2: Attract as little attention from strangers as possible (OPSEC). Nothing good can result from drawing unwanted attention to oneself during a bug out. Thieves, looters, gangs, and everyday thugs will attempt to acquire our survival items and vehicles, if given the chance. Also, we certainly don’t want anyone following us to our retreat. The best way to avoid problems will be by getting out early and packing things out of sight or covering them with tarps so that it isn’t obvious that we have a truck full of food and fuel. My truck has a cap with dark windows, but I still plan to cover everything. Next is getting out of the metropolitan area and into the rural areas along our route as soon as possible. Our routes avoid the local tunnels and other populated areas. However, we cannot avoid crossing two interstate highways, so all our routes attempt to cross them at very rural crossings with little in the way of amenities. We will minimize our stops along the way and attempt to drive straight through to the retreat. Another important consideration is to drive the speed limit and not give the local police any reason to stop us. I do not want to start the apocalypse in jail or try to bribe the local County Mounty with a box of ammo or a gold coin.
Goal #3: Arrive with as much provisions and ammunition as possible. We don’t have unlimited funds available and will never have everything we need or want stored up for TEOTWAWKI. As world or national events start to indicate that a bad situation is developing, we plan to make a final run to the local Costco or Sam’s Club to stock up on anything that we think is still needed. It would be silly to buy more than we can fit into our vehicles, so we won’t overdo it. Our local gun shop has a good return policy and we are known customers. If time permits, we will purchase any guns and ammo that are still required for our safety and the safety of our community group. We have emergency cash readily available (not in a bank) to pay for these last minute items if credit cards and bank ATMs go down. We will keep our receipts and will not open the boxes, so that we can return many of the last minute purchases, if the schumer doesn’t actually hit the fan. Finally, if we have actually gotten out of town early, security conditions permit, and we have space available in our vehicles, we may stop at a rural Walmart along our route to stock up as necessary on perishables, having an insulated chest available to store cold foods.
Goal #4: Arrive with as much fuel in our tanks as possible. Fuel will be critical in any SHTF situation. As world or national conditions start to indicate that everything is “going south,” we will fill our fuel tanks and attempt to keep them as full as practical. We can get from our home to the retreat with less than half a tank in our truck and about ¾ of a tank in our SUV. We also have about 20 gallons stored in gas cans in our garage. We will use these cans to top off our tanks and carry the extra fuel in the pickup for use as required. If the security situation allows, we will stop and fill up at a gas station within 30 miles of our destination to arrive with the maximum amount of fuel in our tanks and gas cans.
These are our goals, but yours will be different. This will hopefully generate some thoughts and ideas about your own personal bug out plan. Think your situation through, define the goals of your group, know your destination, evaluate possible bug out routes, plan your pack up, and plan for contingencies. Once you have a basic plan, write it all down, and review and modify it often with everyone in your family/team. When the SHTF, nothing is going to go as you think it will. Your personal situation, the local area situation and the national situation will be very fluid and constantly changing. Having a written plan that everyone understands will allow you to more easily deal with what is expected and give you more time and flexibility to adjust to the unexpected.
I don’t claim to be an expert in anything, so all comments and suggestions are very welcome! Good luck out there!