Letter Re: Emergency Lighting

Good afternoon, Hugh,

Two recent experiences drive me to write– a recent overnight house guest and a link today on Instapundit about surviving disaster (http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20150128-how-to-survive-a-disaster).

My house guest commented on the number of my night lights and the fact that I have a floor lamp powered by a UPS (Uninterruptible Power Supply), which is a “battery backup” typically used for computers.

First, the night lights are what I prefer to call “target identification lights”. They’re not used just in the bathrooms; they are positioned to ensure anyone moving through the house must either cast a shadow or be silhouetted. This is convenient for the residents (and guests), because it allows easy navigation as well as aiding in identifying potential threats without requiring hand-held lighting that will tell an intruder where you are. (Note: I keep a high-intensity light– a 500 lumen Surefire– on the nightstand just for that purpose as well as wall-mounted 3 D-cell LED Maglites next to each exterior door, in each bedroom, and at each end of the house. Rule 4 of gun safety is “always be sure of your target”, and gun-mounted lights should not be used for that. Additionally, a bright white light can be a powerful weapon in the dark.)

I use two types of 115-volt receptacle replacement LED night lights– Pass and Seymour and Cooper Wiring. (Leviton also makes similar LED nightlight outlets, but I have no experience with them.) Pass and Seymour make several types. The one I use is a GFCI (Ground Fault Circuit Interrupter) double receptacle with a built-in LED nightlight. When I moved into the house I now occupy, I discovered all the bathroom receptacles were on the same circuit and protected by one GFCI breaker in the electrical panel; should an event in one bathroom cause the breaker to trip, it meant all the bathrooms lost power, and it required a trip to the breaker panel in the garage to reset. I replaced all the bathroom receptacles with the P&S night light GFCI receptacles and the GFCI breaker with a standard breaker, making each bathroom outlet electrically independent while still providing GFCI protection (required by electrical and building codes, as well as just common sense).

I also bought a few extra GFCI nightlight receptacles from Home Depot and installed them in several outlets around the house as well as a couple outlets in the kitchen, which also required GFCI protection. While Pass and Seymour have non-GFCI nightlight receptacles, I picked the GFCI for a reason. The other P&S nightlight receptacles have either one non-GFCI outlet and an LED nightlight, a non-GFCI double outlet and nightlight, or a larger nightlight that replaces the entire outlet, or another half-and-half that incorporates a nightlight and a switch to control whatever electrical device one wishes, allowing the incorporation of a nightlight where one now has only a switch, which is a handy option. Unfortunately, none of these configurations allow turning off the night light. Pressing the “test” button on the GFCI nightlight outlet does, affording the ability to “go dark” if one needs to. (Of course, it also turns off power to that entire receptacle as well.)

Some time later I discovered Cooper Wiring manufactured similar outlets with similar configurations and a significant difference– the nightlight portion could be simply programmed for off, low, medium, or bright intensity, and no matter what level one programs to, the nightlight can be turned off and back on by simply pressing the night light lens. (I have not found a non-GFCI double receptacle with LED nightlight from Cooper Wiring that allows turning off the nightlight, but they do have a GFCI version similar to the P&S.)

All the Pass and Seymour and Cooper Wiring lights I have found are controlled by photocells, so they turn on and off automatically in daylight and at night.

Were I fortunate enough to either build a new house or perform a major remodel on this one, I would install some of the Cooper Wiring “full box” (night light only, no outlet or switch) in the ceilings, one in each bathroom, two in the hallway, and one each in the kitchen and family room to provide a wider spread of light than is possible with a wall-mounted light. I’d also put them all on one circuit, so even though they can be turned off and on individually I would have the option of turning all off at once. Since the LEDs draw only one watt each, they would be a “natural” for having a medium-size UPS power them, so one would have minimal light in emergencies if house power were to be lost.

Speaking of UPSes, my UPS-powered floorlamp has a purpose. Some “bad guys” have figured out that modern house construction often puts the main power breaker in the same outside box where the electrical meter is. This allows them to turn the power off to the entire house, then perform a home invasion in the dark while the residents are disoriented.

Having one lamp that is powered by a UPS ensures there will be at least some light should the power be cut. Mine is positioned to cast light down the bedroom hallway and into the family room and part of the kitchen, and it also illuminates all entrance doors through light reflected off walls and the ceiling. It uses a 60-watt equivalent LED bulb that consumes 9 watts and is controlled by a timer plugged into the UPS that turns it on about an hour before dark and off an hour after sunrise. There is also a “Failed Circuit Alarm” ($28 at Amazon) plugged into the same outlet; a FCA is commonly used with freezers so an audible alarm is sounded if power to that receptacle fails, and they are about as loud as a smoke detector; if house power fails, the floor lamp will stay on, so I needed a way to know that power was out.

Side note: One can lock the outside electrical box to prevent tampering with the main breaker, but there needs to be a way to very quickly access the breaker in emergencies. I have equipped my box with the flimsiest luggage lock I could find, and just inside the garage door I keep a medium bolt cutter. The flimsy lock will reduce the possibility of tampering, although it certainly won’t stop a dedicated criminal, and the bolt cutter allows me access it in seconds without having to fumble with even a simple combination. The tools that firefighters routinely carry on their turnout coats will allow them to quickly break the lock as well.

Second side note: Do you have natural gas or propane? Do you need any special tools to shut off those valves in the event of an emergency? Hang those tools adjacent to the electrical panel or the garage door. Also, teach all family members how to use them.

Having a lamp on battery backup also will help should there be an emergency, such as a fire, so that residents and guests can quickly find their way out. The UPS I use will keep that lamp on for about 12 hours, which is way more than I need, but I happened to have that UPS available.

A word about the Maglites: they’re in wall brackets, aimed up at the ceiling, adjacent to all exterior doors, at each end of the house next to the fire extinguishers, and one in each bedroom. They can be removed from the brackets for use, or turned on to reflect light off the ceiling to provide general illumination.

Pro tip: get white or yellow reflective tape and put a couple 2-inch bands around each flashlight. If you set it down in the dark, especially if it’s a black flashlight, the reflective tape makes it easier to find. – N.K.

Economics and Investing:

The Legacy of Debt: Interest Costs Poised to Surpass Defense and Nondefense Discretionary Spending. – G.G.

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The largest bracket of tax payers in the United States is made up by those making $15,000 a year or less: Half of all federal taxes paid by those making $250,000 or more. Sample $50,000 budget.

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Items from Mr. Econocobas:

Worker Pay in U.S. Rose at a Slower Pace in Fourth Quarter

Why Central Bankers Around The World Have Lost Control

David Stockman: History In the Balance: Why Greece Must Repudiate Its “Banker Bailout” Debts And Exit The Euro – Agree with what David is saying but just don’t see the new government doing anything right other than rejecting the debt. Can’t see them ushering in less government and free markets.

David Stockman: Memo To Yellen: What ‘Escape Velocity’—-The Q4 GDP Report Was Not “Solid”

Odds ‘n Sods:

Spokane Washington’s Spokesman Review newspaper recently ran an interview with JWR: Always Prepared.

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8 Unexpected Uses for a Mountain House Pouch . – J.C.

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SurvivalBlog reader D.S. sent in this link about 4 big retailers accused of selling herbal formulas containing no herbs. This size of the “fraud” is scary and begs the question of who can you trust when buying these items? If you have a “safe” supplier, we would love to hear about it.

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It’s always good to go over the basics. K.W. sent in these two links on generators:

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Big brother moves again in Oregon: Oregon moves forward with total tracking and mile billing of all vehicles. Hard to believe people in this marxist-run state will bend over and accept this. Good likelihood “officials” will start using car’s computer and GPS to track and shut down those who refuse to be fleeced. I could see demand for pre-computerized vehicles soar. – C.T.

Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“People who have all the toys and piles of preps but who fail to invest in their own spiritual life can still fail, through a failure of will, through a failure of courage and morals, and through a failure to discern the path of God ahead.” – SurvivalBlog Reader ShepherdFarmerGeek

Notes for Tuesday – February 03, 2015

Ready Made Resources has a new shipment of LP powered, 19 Cubic Foot refrigerators that will run for about 13 weeks on just a 100lb propane cylinder.

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Today, we present another entry for Round 57 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $12,000+ worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value),
  2. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  3. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chromlined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR type rifle to have quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less then one minute without the use of any tools, and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  4. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 30 DPMS AR-15 .223/5.56 30 Round Gray Mil Spec w/ Magpul Follower Magazines (a value of $448) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt. (An equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions.),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  7. A Model 120 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a 340 value),
  8. A $300 gift certificate from Freeze Dry Guy,
  9. A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo,
  10. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304,
  11. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $300 gift certificate, and
  12. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second Prize:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
  3. Acorn Supplies is donating a Deluxe Food Storage Survival Kit with a retail value of $350,
  4. The Ark Instituteis donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package–enough for two families of four, seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate– a $325 retail value,
  5. $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P),
  6. A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials,
  7. Twenty Five books, of the winners choice, of any books published by PrepperPress.com (a $270 value),
  8. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $150 gift certificate,
  9. Organized Prepper is providing a $500 gift certificate, and
  10. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  6. APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Y-Shot Slingshot and a Locking Rifle Rack (a $379 value), and
  8. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 57 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

Bartering for a Living, by J.J.

Just as we will need people with blue-collar skills, like farmers, carpenters, mechanics, welders, and so forth, society will also need entrepreneurs who have the inventory and negotiating skills required to open stores and to restart local economies in the event of an economic collapse. In such times, it will be mutually beneficial for a farmer to let the local trading post sell his produce as a middle man while he is working the farm rather than spending precious hours each day trying to sell that produce himself.

Most preparedness articles talk about the importance of having extra items on hand for bartering when our economy collapses, but have you ever actually done any bartering? Have you ever thought about how you’re going to trade those extra goods you’ve stockpiled? There are some specific strategies you must know in order to make bartering profitable; there are strategies that will enable you to not only make a living to feed your family in a post-SHTF setting but may even set you up with a thriving business that endures long after your community recovers.

I have 20 years of experience running a variety of different businesses– two of which involved constant bartering as their primary profit generator. I’m going to show you some of the specific methods and strategies I used to make these businesses profitable, using examples that would be relevant in the event you found yourself playing the role of local merchant as your community starts to rebuild.

Pricing and Negotiation

I think most people reading this agree that silver coins (pre-1965 U.S. dimes, quarters, and half dollars) will be the new currency of choice in most of the United States if the dollar collapses, so I will be using that as the medium for my pricing examples. Every item in your store needs to have a separate sale and buy price. These values stay the same in trade deals too. For instance, you might sell a tool for $2 in silver coins but only pay $1.50 to buy it. So then a trade might look like this: your $2 tool for their $1.50 and .50 items, which you could then sell for $2 and $1 respectively, resulting in a profit of at least $1.00, depending on what you paid for the original item. Trading (as opposed to selling) is your real key to thriving, because every time you do a trade similar to the example above, you are growing the value of your inventory exponentially. So, unless you need the coin for something specific, you should always push trading your goods over selling them.

The law of supply and demand is also a factor. If you happen to have a lot of those $2 tools in stock, but it’s something that is always in demand, then you might still take them in, but only at $1 trade-in value. However, your sale price should still stay the same, unless you foresee demand decreasing for that item in the future and should then lower your price or offer quantity discounts accordingly (i.e. $2 each or 2 for $3). On the other hand, there might be times when a particular item is in very high demand and you are the only one who has any. In this case, you can raise your retail price accordingly. If a single item in your inventory is especially rare, you can also demand a higher trade-profit because you are “trading down” a harder to replace item for things that are more common, even though their added value might be equal. An example of this would be trading your spare horse for a pile of silver, seeds, and food.

Even today, there is no exact science to pricing goods and services to achieve maximum success. Supply, cost to produce/replace, demand, demographic, competition, operational costs, and location are all important factors. However, at the end of the day, an item is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

The keys to my success were that I had things people wanted and zero emotional attachment to them. This meant I had walk-away power, which is absolutely essential to making a profit in a barter/trade environment. That being said, you must not be greedy! God gives us multiple warnings against greed in His Word, such as Proverbs 1:19, Proverbs 21:6, and Jeremiah 17:11. Expecting a profit for providing desired goods and services is reasonable, but ripping people off will quickly lose you customers (or get you shot), and your business will not last. Your goal should always be a transaction that is mutually-beneficial, where you make a profit and they get the item(s) they desire. Also, do not underestimate the cumulative effect of making small profits! When my dad trained me in business and sales, he always reminded me of the famous saying, “If you watch your pennies closely, the dollars will count themselves.”

From time to time, you may also find yourself in the opposite position where you don’t have large stockpiles of an item for personal use. In fact, you might be trying to trade for enough food to feed your family that day. In this case, you do not have walk-away power and would need to adjust your strategy. If someone has an item that you need/want for your personal use, be prepared to value that item at your retail price for trade-in rather than expecting to make a profit.

Location

An established physical presence is also crucial to having the upper hand during negotiations. The location of your post-collapse trading post will look different depending on your setting. If you live inside a town, you might transform part of your house or garage into a storefront; or maybe you can rent a vacant store nearby. Perhaps your town will host a weekly public market downtown, in which case you will need to be able to transport, set up, and take down your inventory quickly and efficiently. A good location will look completely different in almost every area, depending on regional stability, population density, availability of space, amount of foot/vehicle traffic, and ease of customer access.

With a fixed storefront that is open regular hours, security will be a big concern. There are some great examples in James Wesley Rawles’ book “Survivors” of fixed storefront security, but every unique situation will change the variables and solutions. With a mobile trading post, you will most likely be a one-man show in charge of your own security and will be the most vulnerable traveling to and from the market. In either case, you need to be prepared to protect your life and inventory (since it feeds you and your family), while your business is open and when it is closed.

Marketing

Advertising would be a tricky aspect of running a business when society starts to recover. In my years of experience, I’ve found that the best advertising is a combination of word of mouth and having a great location. Most marketing experts say that it costs many times more to attract a new customer than it does to retain and grow an existing one. Plus, there is the concern of attracting unwanted attention if you used interstate billboards or similarly “loud” advertising after TEOTWAWKI. The best way you can attract customers to your trading post is by choosing a great location from the start and having lots of essential items that everyone is looking for. That way, you become the go-to source in the community. Also, don’t forget about planting seeds in the minds of your customers for repeat visits by going above and beyond in your customer service, store environment, and product conversation.

Starting Inventory

This is by no means an exhaustive list, but having extra quantities of the following items WTSHTF will most certainly give you a head start in your bartering:

Also, make sure you have a couple of “spare” bigger-sized items in your starting inventory. It’s important to make sure that you always maintain a mix of both smaller and larger items in your inventory to maximize your trading leverage.

Add-On Services

Another key to running a successful retail business is having multiple profit centers or services that draw people to your location. I have used this strategy very successfully in my retail businesses. This principle could be applied post-TEOTWAWKI by selling services, such as knife/tool sharpening, water filtering, cigarette rolling, battery charging, and others alongside your goods. People, especially Americans, are by nature impulsive shoppers and often remember they need or want things only after they see them. Diversifying your business also heeds Ecclesiastes 11:2 advice: “Give portions to 7, yes to 8, for you do not know what disaster may come upon the land.” This might necessitate involving the skill sets of family and/or friends in your community. Doing so would accomplish three things:

  1. It would give your business more profit centers and ways to draw customers,
  2. It would lift up others as they share in your success, and
  3. It will provide more security for your (hopefully) thriving business.

If you are reading this article, you have the same advantage I have had in my successful businesses– you know the types of items and services that will be in demand if our economy collapses and you can start stockpiling those items and developing those services right now so that you have a head start to generating an income and feeding your family when it does. As a disclaimer: Make sure you research and follow any and all applicable laws and licensing/permitting/insurance rules in effect before engaging in any business activities, especially in regards to regulated substances, such as alcohol, tobacco, or firearms.

Two Letters Re: The Weakness in Your Defense Plans

HJL,

I want to say thank you to T.S. Your article helped reinforce the attitude I had to re-condition myself and the way I see and think. I completely understand because that is precisely what I had to do when I finally purchased a gun. That was five years ago. Further back in time (I am in my 50’s now), I worked in a retail store that sold pellet handguns. Once, alone in the back stock room I took one out of the box. The feel of the gun, the weight, and that sense of power was kind of exciting. I loaded it. Then, being certain it was safe, I began shooting it at various targets. Within moments I was suffering a headache like nothing I had ever experienced before, nor even imagined a person could suffer. The gun was for killing. A sense of repulsion flooded through me, and the weapon was put away quickly. I knew at that time I would never hold a gun again. A few years later I worked as a security guard. I wasn’t licensed, but my partner was. One evening he pulled it on a kid. There was no need to do that, but he liked the power. That headache returned, and I quit that night.

Come Sept. 2008 when the market crashed, I resolved that I had to get over this mental wall if chaos occurred and my family needed to be protected. All I could afford was a 12-gauge shotgun. Go figure. It wasn’t an easy to use .22 LR but a 12 gauge, and now I had to learn to use it.

It’s simple enough, and thankfully somewhere along my life span I learned to never put my finger on the trigger until it is time to shoot. At the range at last, loaded and ready, all I could do was stand there and stare at the target 50 yards away. All around me men, some women, and teens were shooting away, shooting paper and cheering when one made the “kill shot”, meaning dead center. I stood there alone in my thoughts. I am not like them. I am not here for enjoyment. A nauseousness began to set in. I can’t just shoot. I need a reason, and telling myself I have to learn the “feel” of shooting, I have to learn aiming, I have to learn how to hold a 12-gauge and handle the recoil wasn’t enough for me to pull the trigger. No matter how many times I set it to my shoulder and aimed, I couldn’t pull the trigger. A small headache had begun.

Yet, I was determined not to leave until I had fired at least two rounds. Why did I buy this? It was to defend my family, but all I am shooting is paper. This thing kills. Paper isn’t a threat, and shooting paper isn’t fun. I was alone in my thoughts. I had to realign my thinking. I had to re-think reality. Suddenly the image in my mind wasn’t a piece of paper. The resolve in my heart was to stop “someone” from hurting my family. I forced myself to “see” that paper as a threat– a real person. I HAD to shoot for defense. Off goes the first round. I was not even close, and boy did the kick surprise me. I felt sick, yet again I re-imagined the threat and fired the second round. I missed again. There was a lack of experience, but after six rounds I found my sighting and hit the bull’s eye. Thirty seven rounds were all I could handle. Though the last several rounds were center hits, it wasn’t elation, satisfaction, or excitement that I felt. It was accomplishment. I did what had to be done. The feeling was more somber than any other feeling. That was good enough. Though no face nor blood existed, by forcing myself to re-see and re-think, my resolve was strong enough that I could pull the trigger if necessary. Each and every time I go, I must do the same exercise.

This led to another “reality check”. Almost every post on this site mentions an aspect of knowing your environment. I walk my dog every night at least five miles. I live on Long Island. IF martial law is declared, we here are screwed. Manhattan and Long Island have been closed down/off three times since Sept. 11. Most people aren’t even aware of the ramifications should they do it again. Since that day at the range, my neighborhood no longer is the same. I live in a heavily gang populated area. I am amazed at the number of ambush sites I now see as I walk my dog. I never truly noticed them before.

A vet I know and trust gave me advice. He said under martial law you want to blend in, not stand out. If possible, avoid checkpoints. Having re-learned my neighborhood, I can clearly foresee where two checkpoints would be– both on the route traveled getting home from work.

If they had to be avoided, it is doable, even though it means adding an extra five miles, which would be done all on foot and through the woods.

My main point is, in order to overcome that unconscious mind, forcing myself to “see” and then “do”, I can now put five to eight in the center at 75 yards. I am confident now I can pull the trigger. I no longer walk my dog with my head down. I am more aware of MY environment, and I know more of the danger points and such as well as how to get around on foot through wooded areas.

I can’t leave. My family is here, over 40 of them. Most believe all things balance out. I am the nut. Hopefully, a nut who is now a step or two ahead of the crowd. – F.J.

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HJL,

I am writing to question the information in the above article. I know that any questioning of the article will require some bona fides. I am an Army Warrant Officer with both Counter Intelligence and Signal experience. I am very close friends with a member of the Ranger Hall of Fame and my best friend on this ol’ Earth was a Cav Scout. I have spoken with both these men (and others) at length about Grossman and his work. Now, on to my comments.

The biggest weakness with the article is its reliance on LTC (not COL) Dave Grossman and BG SLA Marshall for its introductory thesis. Marshall has been accused of wholesale fabrication of data; at the very least his scholarship was sloppy and his conclusions cannot be supported by any actual data he collected.

Grossman relies too heavily (at least in “On Combat”) on Marshall’s work, and his (Grossman’s) conclusions have been challenged by many in the Regiment and the Special Forces community. It’s not that all his ideas are worthless, but the results of actual research on how humans react to combat and killing have not been kind to his thesis.

My recommendation, as a professional soldier, is to not over rely on Grossman’s and Marshall’s questionable thesis in making preparations. – E.W.

Economics and Investing:

‘Secret’ Gold Repatriation: The Banksters’ Newest Bullion Scam

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Interview: The Quickening with Jim Willie

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Items from Mr. Econocobas:

Which Central Bank Will Shock Markets Next?

Will Gold Ever Top $1,300 Again? – Just had to include this article.. The entire premise of this article is based around a recovery that is largely an illusion and that the U.S. can sustain interest rate hikes.

How Americans Are Spending Their Windfall From Cheap Gas- Kind of sad..

Obama’s $4 Trillion Budget Sets Up Fight with Congress

Odds ‘n Sods:

For any readers located in or around Germany, you may want to look at Outdoor Army. Nice, easy to navigate website and a pretty comprehensive inventory.

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Russian Bomber Over Channel Was Carrying Nukes. – RBS

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Not Joking: 4th Grader Suspended for Making ‘Terroristic Threat’ with Magic Ring from ‘The Hobbit’ Movie. – H.L.

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Squatters move in, stop home sale. – D.S.

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An unbelievable violation of human rights: Mother-of-six with learning disabilities could be sterilised after authorities ask court for permission to force entry into her home . – D.S.

Notes for Monday – February 02, 2015

February 2nd is the birthday of Ayn Rand (born Alisa Zinov’yevna Rosenbaum in 1905, died March 6, 1982). She is of course remembered for her novel Atlas Shrugged, which is considered a Libertarian classic. While we sharply disagree with her views on religion (since she was an atheist), we admire both her skill as a writer and her ability to articulate some core precepts of human liberty.

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SurvivalBlog welcomes two new prize sponsors starting with Round 57 of the Writing Contest:

In the first prize awards is a Model 120 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $340 value).

Added to the third prize are Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

You might consider checking out their web sites and all of the useful equipment they offer.

Round 56 Non-Fiction Writing Contest Winners Announced!

First prize goes to I.S. for “Motorizing a Country Living Grain Mill for 12-volt Battery and Solar – Part 1” & “Part 2”, which were posted on January 21st and 22nd. He will receive the following prizes:

  1. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value),
  2. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  3. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 Nato QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chromlined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR type rifle to have quick change barrel which can be assembled in less then one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  4. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 30 DPMS AR-15 .223/5.56 30 Round Gray Mil Spec w/ Magpul Follower Magazines (a value of $448.95) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt. An equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions.
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear,
  7. A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value),
  8. A $300 gift certificate from Freeze Dry Guy,
  9. A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo,
  10. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304,
  11. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $300 gift certificate, and
  12. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second prize goes to M.M. for “Becoming a Top-Tier Survivalist and Representing the Prepper Community – Part 1” , “Part2”, “Part 3”, “Part 4”, and “Part 5”, which were posted on December 9-13. He will receive the following prizes:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
  3. Acorn Supplies is donating a Deluxe Food Storage Survival Kit with a retail value of $350,
  4. The Ark Instituteis donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package–enough for two families of four, seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate– a $325 retail value,
  5. $300 worth of ammo from Patriot Firearms and Munitions. (They also offer a 10% discount for all SurvivalBlog readers with coupon code SVB10P),
  6. A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials,
  7. Twenty Five books, of the winners choice, of any books published by PrepperPress.com (a $270 value),
  8. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $150 gift certificate,
  9. Organized Prepper is providing a $500 gift certificate, and
  10. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.

Third prize goes to M.H. for “Eating That Preparedness Elephant, One Bite At a Time”, which was posted on January 25. She will receive the following prizes:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  6. APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Y-Shot Slingshot and a Locking Rifle Rack (a $379 value).

Honorable Mention prizes ($30 Amazon.com gift certificates via e-mail) have been awarded to the writers of these fine articles:

Note to all Prize winners: Let us know your current e-mail address. We will also need the UPS and USPS addresses for each of the top three prize winners.

Round 56 ended on February 1st, but Round 57 has started, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging. Those articles that we received for Round 56 but that did not get published in time will be automatically entered in Round 57.

January In Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins

Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover the price action of gold and silver and examine the “what” and “why” behind those numbers.

Gold had a wild ride to start the year, with plenty of economic and political turmoil to power the roller coaster price action. We saw prices move from $1,170 to $1,305, as turmoil rocked Europe, only to crash back to near $1,250 after a Federal Reserve policy meeting that the market makers deemed hawkish. Even so, gold had its best month in over 1-1/2 years in January. Silver had its best January in over 30 years, before the FOMC meeting put the brakes on all the markets.

Precious Metals Market Drivers in January

January saw elections, quantitative easing, and volatility in equities, but two things most talked about was the dominant US dollar and the complete collapse of the oil market.

THE DOLLAR ASCENDANT

The U.S. dollar continued to crush all rivals in January, with some analysts saying that it is still weak compared to historical inflation-adjusted levels. BMO Capital forecasts that the USD could rise another 15% in 2015. While a strong dollar is welcome news to U.S. consumers whose wages haven’t raised in years, there are some downsides as well. Curiously enough, Peter Schiff tells us that it was gold that was the best-performing currency against the dollar in 2014. The big gains of the dollar have also magnified the effects of oil prices.

PLUMMETING OIL

Crude oil prices continued their plunge in January, with the Saudis vowing to not play the patsy and cut production while everyone keeps pumping (like what happened during the last oil glut.) U.S. shale fracking and increased output from Iraq, Iran, Libya, and Russia, during a time where the global economy is slowing down, means producers are in a tough bind. The Arabs are PLUMMETING OILdetermined to hold the line and drive the highly-leveraged shale drilling companies out of business in order to reduce the supply coming onto the marketplace. In fact, with crude prices dropping under $50 a barrel, Saudi prince Alaweed bin Talal told reporters that “I’m sure we’re never going to see $100 anymore. I said a year ago, the price of oil above $100 is artificial. It’s not correct.”

U.S. drilling operations in North Dakota and Oklahoma have already started scaling back, and as more of them try to refinance their high-yield debt (a.k.a. junk bonds), it could force so many bankruptcies in the energy sector that the Federal Reserve may be pushed back into a new round of printing money. James Rickards believes that the collapse of the energy sector junk bond market would spread into other junk bonds and could ignite the largest financial panic ever.

SWISS BREAK PEG TO EURO

With the European Union falling deeper into deflationary conditions, speculation became rampant that the European Central Bank would have no choice but to start its own money-printing operation to buy government debt. The road was cleared for such a plan when the EU courts ruled on January 14 that quantitative easing by the ECB would not violate the treaty that established the central bank. “Someone” figured out what was going to happen before it did, because 40,000 call options on GLD were purchased two days prior, betting that gold would go up $130 an ounce to $1,360/oz by the end of March. If gold hits that mark, the unknown trader could make a profit of up to $50 million.

The day after the court ruling, the Swiss central bank abruptly abandoned its policy of selling Swiss francs to maintain a peg of 1.20 to the euro. As the shocks of Switzerland’s de-pegging the franc rocked the marketplace and wiped out many investors who had bet on the “sure thing” of the Swiss keeping the peg to the euro, gold jumped $30. The Swiss Surprise was seen as confirmation that the ECB would indeed begin quantitative easing later that week.

ECB BEGINS PRINTING MONEY

On January 22, ECB QE was announced. The plan unveiled by ECB president Mario Draghi was larger than expected (60bn euro vs 50bn), and longer than expected (18 months vs 12 months). Gold and the U.S. dollar rose sharply. Stocks rose to a lesser extent, moderated by poor earnings reports that day and an above-expected first-time jobless claims report. Gold denominated in euros hit a 21-month high the day after ECBQE was announced, with the euro at 11-year lows versus the dollar.

Under the 1.1 trillion euro asset purchasing scheme, the ECB will not hold more than 33pc of any issuer’s debt and will not buy more than 25pc of any issue. This freezes Greece out of the QE program, since the ECB already holds the legal limit of Greek debt. The Greek government will not be eligible for the new bond purchases until July, and Draghi warned the Greeks that any further purchase of Greek bonds by the ECB would depend on the new government in Athens continuing with the agreed-upon austerity program that accompanied their bailout money.

GREEK ELECTIONS

There’s a fat chance of that, as new socialist prime minister Tsiperas refused entry to the country to EU and IMF financial inspectors, for the purpose of reviewing the Greek government’s progress on austerity measures. He flatly rejects the current bailout conditions under which Greece has already borrowed (and owes EU nations) €240 billion. Tsiperas is demanding new negotiations from scratch and an end to German-enforced budget cutting and privatization on the part of the Greek government. In an unmistakable signal to Merkel, his first act as Prime Minister was to lay flowers at the memorial to 200 Greeks executed by the Nazis in WWII.

To add some bite to his blackmail demands, Greece vetoed an expansion of EU sanctions against Russia for escalating violence in the Ukraine war. To understand the possible consequences of an exit by Greece from the EU (called a “Grexit”,) Koos Jansen wrote this inside look at the last time Greece almost left the EU and the possible consequences. For a little more background, check this easy to read infographic on the Greek Crisis.

THE FEAR TRADE

It isn’t just the socialists who are running Greece shaking the markets. The Charlie Hebdo terrorist attack in Paris, deflation, stock volatility, the global economic slowdown, and unexpected large policy changes by central banks have millions of people spooked. As Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller notes, people are afraid of what kind of world their children will face, and so they are willing to take negative yields on government bonds (actually paying the government for the privilege to loan them money) in exchange for financial safety.

With Greek leftists blackmailing the EU, terrorists gunning down civilians, and the European Central Bank printing money, Europeans are snapping up gold. Germans, French, and Italian private investors purchased physical gold at a rate 41% above last year this month.

Another sign the debt-fueled Ponzi scheme that is the stock market is coming apart is the story of the $100 million hedge fund that went bankrupt in December. The multi-trillon dollar corporate junk bond market is beginning to crash as well. A Chinese company became the first to default on its bonds this month, and the market panic is spreading from junk bonds to investment-grade corporate debt.

FOMC

Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve did a big number on ALL the markets this month with the open-market policy meeting. After the meeting announcement showed no signs of the Fed backing down on plans to start raising interest rates around mid-year, stocks plummeted, as the shock of no more free money sank in, and gold was hit on the prospect of an even stronger dollar.

Notably missing was the phrase “for a considerable time” when talking about when to hike interest rates, which Wall Street took as a sign of the Apocalypse. The Fed said that downward pressure on inflation from the 50% drop in crude oil prices was only temporary and not a reason to delay normalization of economic policy.

On The Retail Front

It’s January, so Silver Eagles are in the news, of course. 2.9 million American Silver Eagles were snapped up on the first day of sales, and the month finished at over 5.4 million ounces.

The British Royal Mint announced that it is back in the bullion bar business after an absence of 47 years.

The annual gold-buying frenzy in China for the Lunar New Year has started. It will be a long buying season this year, as the lunar new year isn’t until February 19.

Market Buzz

Again, from Asian precious metals market expert Koos Jansen, we learn of the silver boom in India that’s going on, as well as the fact that Shanghai silver volume is now 37% larger than the COMEX.

The huge gold volume in China, also covered in the above article, is why CME– the owners of the COMEX exchange– have launched a kilobar gold contract in Hong Kong.

James Rickards says that the global manipulation of gold by central banks is so China will have enough gold reserves to match Western governments in the coming “currency reset”. According to him, after the world’s currencies are reset, they will not be as vulnerable to gold, and the price will be allowed free movement.

China isn’t the only government gobbling up gold, as Russia added to its gold reserves for the ninth straight month. A large part of this is to support the domestic gold mining industry, which is locked out of Western markets due to sanctions over Ukraine, but Moscow is probably happy for any excuse to spend rubles for hard assets before the currency devalues any further.

Western investors are getting into the act as well, as inflows into gold ETFs jump.

Rampant manipulation in the gold and silver fixes may be more subdued, now that British financial regulators are monitoring them.

Low prices are about to claim the entire gold mining sector in Zimbabwe, unless the government there eases back on their tax burden. Gold provides about half of Zimbabwe’s exports by value.

Looking at all of this together, Marc Faber may be right when he says gold will rally 30% as people lose faith in central banks. While he notes that there’s no way to “short” central banks, the closest thing to it is buying gold, which he calls the “trade of the century.”

Of course, the mainstream media LOVES to talk about how gold prices dropped last year, but that is ONLY true in the U.S. In every other currency in the world, gold prices rose in 2014. Gold also beat every stock market in the world, except the U.S. and Canada, in 2014. That’s not bad for a “barbarous relic”, is it?

Looking Ahead

February will bring us more gold buying in the Chinese New Year, fighting in Ukraine continuing to increase with Greek PM Tsiperas poised to block more EU sanctions on Russia, and Merkel vs Tsiperas in a fight over Greek debt forgiveness and/or restructuring.

The big question here at home will be, will the U.S. economy be able to resist being drug down by the rest of the world?

We end this month’s column with an update on German Gold Repatriation from the Fed. It seems that the Bundesbank actually got some gold out of the vaults of the New York Federal Reserve last year, to the tune of 85 metric tonnes!