Street Combat – This Ain’t No Game! – Part 3 of 9, by Pat Cascio

[Street Combat – This Ain’t No Game is a Survivalblog exclusive.]

Chapter One

HAND-TO-HAND

With a few exceptions, it takes years and years of training to become proficient at defending yourself with nothing but your bare hands and feet. The “average” person on the street isn’t prepared to undertake this sort of lengthy and time-consuming training process. So, what are the options?

I’ve been involved in the martial arts for close to 30 years, now. If there are any shortcuts or secrets, I sure haven’t discovered them. I’m continually amazed at the number of people who come to me for self-defense training with the same question: “How long will it take for me to get my Black Belt?” I wish I had a dollar for every person that asked me that question. I’d be sitting on Easy Street.

First of all, if you’re determined to train in any of the martial arts, be advised that they are not all the same. Many styles are geared toward competition; I have no problem with that, as long as the instructor is presenting it that way. Trophies are nice and look impressive, but try carrying one down the street and using it to defend yourself.

If you run across an instructor who guarantees you’ll get your Black Belt in 100 easy lessons, steer clear of him. There are many unethical instructors out there who will “sell” you a Black Belt after just a short period of training. My fellow martial artist and friend, Tom Saviano, knows of one such school just down the street from him. For $1,500.00 this so-called “instructor” will guarantee you that you’ll become a Black Belt within a year or so.

Saviano runs the White Tiger Kenpo Karate School, 823 South Rt. 53, Addison, IL 60101. Tom has been involved in the martial arts for more years than I have, and he runs a legitimate martial arts school. He and I both teach many of the techniques– American Kenpo Karate– developed by our friend and fellow martial artist, Master John McSweeney! This is a no non-sense type of self-defense, not competition techniques!

Neither Saviano, McSweeney, nor I teach a flashy or fancy style of self-defense. We leave that to the Hollywood Masters. What you will learn is honest, street-proven techniques that work. Is the style we teach the “best” or the “only” style? No, not by a long shot. No reputable martial artist claims they have the “best” or “only” style. Again, if you run across such a person, look else where for your training. If you’re looking for any shortcuts or secrets, you’d better checkout another training hall. The only thing we know about is hard training, long hours, dedication, and continued improvement to time proven methods.

CASE STUDY: School Yard Thrashing

Like most kids, I was a bit on the skinny side growing up. I didn’t fill out until I enlisted in the military at age 17. I did learn a valuable lesson during my earlier school yard “thrashing”; if at all possible, you should pick the time and place for your street combat.

Marshall had recently moved to the neighborhood from Tennessee or Kentucky. I can’t remember which, and it’s not all that important at this point. Marshall was a big kid for his age, much bigger than the rest of the nine year olds, including me.

It was Marshall’s habit to pick on everyone who was smaller than him. Isn’t that what bullies normally do? Marshall wasn’t the brightest kid in Bridgeport (the area of Chicago where I grew up). As a matter of fact, if I recall correctly, Marshall had been held back in school a year or two.

It was Marshall’s habit to come up behind kids, get one in a “bear hug”, and squeeze the living daylight out of them. I knew, even at the age of nine, that I was no match for this back hills kid’s brute strength. I had to pick my place and time!

During Christmas break, we found ourselves in waist deep snow, building “forts” of snow in the school yard. Marshall was there, too. As usual, he was picking on everyone and soundly defeating us all in snowball fights. I saw my opportunity.

While Marshall was busy hurling snowballs at some of the other kids, I approached him from the rear. With all my might, I got Marshall into a strangle hold that he couldn’t break. The hold was so devastating that Marshall almost lost consciousness. The only thing that stopped the world from going dark on Marshall was some of our friends pulling me off Marshall.

There was never, ever, again, a problem with Marshall bullying another kid in the neighborhood. Marshall and I became great friends after that incident.

LESSON LEARNED:

Pick your time and place for Street Combat, if at all possible. Don’t let the aggressor take control of the situation. Wait for your window of opportunity.

Now, in retrospect, it wasn’t the nicest thing to attack Marshall from behind, but I had won a victory for myself and every other nine year old on the block. I had taken a giant step forward in my lifelong learning process. This was my first “victory” over a much larger and stronger opponent.

When you first start training in any self-defense techniques, much of what you learn is of the physical aspect. As you progress, you start developing your mental training abilities. A true martial artist will readily admit that winning a battle is 80-90 percent mental and only 10-20 percent physical.

You must be aware of what is going on around you at all times! Many shooting instructors (myself included) have a color code we teach our students.

  • White is the condition you’re in when you’re completely oblivious to everything around. This is a day dreaming state.
  • Yellow is the condition you should be in during all your waking hours. You are aware of everything going on around you.
  • Red means you have sensed trouble or something out of the ordinary, and you are preparing to take appropriate action.
  • Black means you have engaged the threat or problem, and there’s no turning back. You must bring this situation to a peaceful (if possible) and reasonable end.

TECHNIQUE USED:

Modified Japanese Strangle Hold. If your attacker can’t breath, he’ll have a difficult time attacking you. Cut off his source of oxygen, and he’ll quickly stop his attack against you.

If you can get around behind your attacker, you can easily get him into this deadly strangle hold. Place the bone of your lower right arm against the wind pipe of your attacker. Then, bring your left arm behind your attackers neck. Lock your arms together by using your hands as “locks” in the crook of your arm. Take a single step backwards, pulling your attacker off-balance all the while exerting pressure on his wind pipe. In short order, your attacker will lose consciousness and cease being a threat. Keep in mind, that continued use of the Japanese Strangle Hold will cause death (to your attacker) in short order if you don’t release him.

CASE STUDY: The Cabretta Black Leather Jacket

Like every kid in the neighborhood, I wanted a Cabretta black leather jacket. I don’t know if they still make this sort of jacket style, but they used to be a sort of status symbol. For the most part, they kind of looked like a black leather suit jacket with an imitation fur lining for warmth (that didn’t work as intended).

My folks searched high and low to find a Cabretta black leather jacket for me. Unfortunately, the only one they could find was about two sizes too big for me. It didn’t matter; I wore it anyway with the bottom of the sleeves turned under. I looked good, or at least I think I did!

I was 13 years old and was traveling on a CTA (Chicago Transit Authority) bus with two friends. We were headed to the Museum of Science and Industry, along South Lake Shore Drive in Chicago. The only problem was that we had to transfer buses in a rapidly (racially) changing neighborhood. We had traveled this route numerous times over the years and had never previously encountered any problems, until that day!

Several stops before we were to change from one bus route to another, five black youths got on the bus. They were all about our age or a year or so older. The black youths immediately started checking out my Cabretta black leather jacket. The leader of the bunch asked if he could try it on. Of course, my response was a resounding “No.” I knew there was going to be trouble at this point.

As we approached our stop, my two friends and I exited the front door of the bus. Before we knew it, the five black youths had exited the rear door. They rapidly were upon us, and the leader attempted to pull my Cabretta off my back. I wasn’t about to have any of that and pulled away from him. I was met with his fist on the side of my face.

Outnumbered, in an African-American neighborhood, our plan was to . . . run! At least in this incident, I was aware that there was trouble brewing, and I wasn’t really too surprised when I got “hit upside the head.” As a matter of fact, I didn’t feel any pain until much later.

My one friend managed to make it across the busy boulevard and hopped on the bus heading toward the museum. As for myself and my other friend, we retreated to the safety of a Walgreen’s Drug Store. At least we thought we would be safe once inside.

Three of the black youths followed right behind us. No one, neither black nor white, would come to our aid. Thanks, Chicago! We made our way to the rear of the drug store and were cornered in two phone booths. We fought off the three attackers by kicking, kicking, and kicking them.

By this time, someone had called the Chicago Police Department, who came to our rescue. We updated the cops when they arrived, and they took us in their patrol car to the museum. It was there that we found our other friend fending off the last two black youths in the public restroom. Again, no one made any attempt to come to our friend’s rescue. Thanks (again), Chicago!

LESSON LEARNED:

Mental awareness is the number one key to staying alive on the mean streets of America (or any city or country). Had I not already been involved in a theft of clothing (remember my new winter gloves?), I probably wouldn’t have been tipped off to the impending attempted theft of my Cabretta jacket.

Luckily, my friends and I knew the area where we were to transfer buses. Had we not been familiar with the area, we might have run from our attackers and headed deeper into their terf. Instead, two of us ran inside a public building. The third jumped on a CTA bus and headed for the safety of the museum.

When you don’t have any weapons, except those you brought with you (in our case, our hands and feet), make good use of them. Rapid kicks to a person’s legs will probably give them an excuse to be some place else.

Lastly, don’t be stupid, like I was! I was wearing a hard-to-find and expensive Cabretta black leather jacket. This was an item of clothing best reserved for my own neighborhood, not for a racially-changing area that was known for trouble. Hey, I never said I was the smartest person in the world. My only excuse was that I was 13 years old and wanted to show off my new jacket.

TECHNIQUE USED:

Low Kicks to the Knee and Lower Legs. If your attacker can’t walk, he’ll have a difficult time hurting you. Two of the most effective kicks any martial artist can master is the front snap kick and the side kick.

Unlike “Hollywood” martial artist, we teach only low kicks– kicks usually below the waist and more often to the knee and lower leg area. These kicks are extremely difficult to defend against and are devastating!

The front snap kick is executed by raising the (kicking) leg straight up until the upper part of your leg is horizontal to the ground. You then kick straight out toward your attacker’s groin area with your lower leg (keeping your foot and toes pointed toward the ground). The instep of your foot should make contact with his groin area. This kick is very fast and powerful. If delivered correctly, to the groin area, your opponent will be down for the count.

The side kick is delivered in much the same manner, with the exception being you are kicking out to the right or left side of your body. Your target area is the front or side of the knee. In this case, the side kick is delivered with the side of your foot. If your attacker can’t walk or stand, he’ll no longer be a threat!

One of the best combat techniques was used in this attack. I picked the site for the final battle– inside of a drug store– to be a very public place, where eventually someone called the local police. I refused to allow our attackers the advantage of continuing their attack on the street corner. To allow this, the odds were pretty good that our attackers would have had back-up in pretty short order.

Lastly, I used the best weapon I had– my brain! I was mentally aware of my surroundings and the impending threat (for the most part). I knew there was going to be trouble with these black youths within seconds of their boarding the bus. I also knew that to stay on the bus any longer would have brought us deeper into their terf.

I’ve often wondered about the aspect of asking the bus driver for some type of aid. Upon reflection, I seriously doubt he would have interfered in the upcoming battle. I’ve often watched CTA bus drivers throw both offending parties off their bus, not caring what would happen to either or both parties.

CASE STUDY: Unarmed Against A Knife!

Being unarmed against a knife is a deadly situation that no self-respecting person wants to face. Unfortunately, I was unlucky enough to encounter a knife-wielding assailant on one cool fall day.

By the age of 15, I was fortunate enough to engage in some judo training with my long-time friend, Andy Silva. (Thanks, Andy.) Andy had been training in judo and karate (at the same time) for about a year and had become pretty efficient at it. It was a regular routine for Andy and I to practice in my grandmother’s living room. Andy had mastered several throws and kicks, and I learned everything I could from our training sessions. I mastered the side kick and the front snap kick in these training sessions.

School was back in session, though I didn’t attend a public high school back in Chicago. Instead, I was fortunate enough to get some of my high education at a private Lutheran high school. However, good luck doesn’t always follow good fortune! I had to travel on two and sometimes three CTA buses to get to school. In good weather, it took about a hour and a half to get to school. In bad weather, well, let’s just say it took longer.

I had to transfer from one bus route to another. Unfortunately, the first bus route took me through an all-black area of southside Chicago. My transfer point was (then) in a racially-mixed area!

While waiting to transfer bus routes (at the end-of-the-line), I used to stand in the outside alcove area of a doctor’s office (just in front of the building). This afforded me some protection from the biting wind, and I could watch for my approaching bus. This gave me plenty of time to get to the corner to board the bus.

On one particular day, I was approached by two black youths. Both were probably 15 or 16 years old. One pulled out a folding knife from his jacket pocket and demanded my money. I had made up my mind long ago that I wasn’t going to be a victim any more, so I refused his demands!

The youth started slashing at me. I was trapped in the alcove, with my only means of escape through my attackers! My shirt had been cut in several places by one of the slashing attacks, but I remained unscathed. I kicked out at both youths with a combination of front snap kicks and side kicks, until I saw an opening. I ran toward and around the corner and got on one of the waiting buses (at the end of the route). I took the bus home and decided not to attend school that day.

LESSON LEARNED:

Don’t be stupid! It would have been better to stand in front of the restaurant (on the corner) instead of waiting in an alcove. It was early morning and the doctor’s office wasn’t open, so there was no means of escape or retreat. I had cornered myself in what could have been my last day on the face of this earth.

There was an alternate bus route I could have taken. Unfortunately, it would have added at least an hour to my travel time. Eventually, I learned to take a later bus to school, allowing me to travel with several other students from my neighborhood; there is strength in numbers!

I should have been mentally prepared for the attack, but I wasn’t! I observed the two black youths approaching from down the street. I should have left the “safety” of the alcove and gone to the true safety of the restaurant on the corner, but I didn’t!

TECHNIQUE USED:

Low, front snap kicks to the groin (missed) and side kicks to the lower legs and knee areas of my attackers. My kicks were more effective at this stage of my life. While I didn’t put my attackers down, it did allow me to escape. Kicks to the upper and lower legs are effective against a knife-wielding suspect. They are too busy defending themselves to put much effort in their attack.

CASE STUDY: Unarmed Against A Knife, Part II

“Luck” just seems to follow some people, every place they go. Such is the story of my life.

While living with a relative on the near southwest side of Chicago, I once again had the misfortune of facing a knife-wielding suspect. However, this attack was completely different than the first one. This attack was launched furiously, without warning, and viciously! To this day, I still don’t know why I was attacked.

I worked as a supervisor for a guard company. I worked all hours of the day and night. I was basically “on call” 24 hours per day. This was an armed position, and I made it a habit of being armed most of the time, because I never knew when the radio would “crackle” and I’d be on-duty.

When leaving home one night, I didn’t have my Smith & Wesson Model 10, .38 Spl. revolver with me. I don’t recall where I was headed, but I was going to take the patrol car the company provided me for my personal and business use. It was unusual for me to leave the house unarmed, especially if I was going to be driving the patrol car rather than my 1969 Pontiac Firebird.

As I left the front door of the apartment building, I was immediately set upon by my attacker. He was all over me, like bees to honey! My left forearm was slashed by his knife, before I knew what had happened. I didn’t have time to worry about my bleeding arm. I had to end this attack!

I used a combination of forearm smashes to my attacker’s chest area, followed by side kicks to his lower leg area. I’m not sure which self-defense techniques worked, but he broke off his attack in fairly short order. I ran back upstairs to retrieve my gun. However, by this time, my attacker was long gone.

A trip to see my local doctor resulted in a quick bandage job. I was told to go to the hospital emergency room for a suturing job. I never did! I still have the scarred left forearm as a reminder.

LESSON LEARNED:

I should have known better by this stage of my life. I had obtained my first degree black belts in judo and goju-ryu karate by this time. I was an ardent student of the martial arts, training four or five evenings per week for hours at a time. I had recently been introduced to the art of kung fu as well. My mind was obviously elsewhere that evening. I was operating in condition “white”.

Never ever take anything for granted. An attack can take place anytime, any place, and for any reason! I still don’t know the reason for this attack. I can only surmise that I was going to be the victim of a robbery or random murder.

If you’re going to be armed, you should be this way all of the time and not just part of the time or when you “feel” threatened. You can’t possibly predict when an attack will occur. I don’t know if I would have had time to draw my trusty S&W Model 10 and end this mad man’s attack on me. Perhaps or perhaps not! When you’re taken by complete surprise, with your handgun holstered, you’re probably better off fending off your attacker until you can get some time and/or distance to draw your weapon.

TECHNIQUE USED:

Two of the biggest weapons you have with you are your forearms! They can put an attacker down quick, when used correctly. The fighting was so close-in that traditional karate punches couldn’t be used. I had no room to throw a punch. I had to use my forearms to strike my assailant’s chest area.

To execute a strong forearm smash, you must do two things. First of all, you must be close to your attacker; otherwise, you’ll completely miss your target. A forearm smash doesn’t have very much distance.

Secondly, you must put your entire body weight behind your forearm smash. Most traditional karate styles teach a simple forearm smash to the chest or head area. While effective, it can be improved upon. Master John McSweeney has taken the traditional forearm smash to the next highest level.

To perform a bone-breaking, killing, forearm smash, you must use a “looping” movement. You don’t simply strike out with your forearm. In McSweeney’s “Power Strike” methods, you can either “loop” your forearm up and over and strike your opponent in the head, shoulders, or chest area, or you can “swivel” (from side-to-side, left-to-right) and thereby “loop” your forearm onto your opponent. This movement has devastating effects.

Lastly, low front snap kicks and side kicks to the legs and knees also helped end this attack. Never ever underestimate the effectiveness of low kicks to the legs. Leave the flashy, high kicks to the Hollywood martial artists. While they look effective onscreen, they are lacking in real life situations!

KICKING COMMENTS:

In my martial arts classes and seminars, we place great emphasis on keeping our kicks L-O-W! There’s several good reason for this.

  1. It’s extremely difficult to defend against kicks that are kept at or below knee level.
  2. Kicks to the front of the knee or the side of the knee can collapse the leg. Remember, if they can’t stand, they’ll have a difficult time causing you any harm.
  3. As we get older, it’s more difficult to perform those “high” kicks without a warm-up.
  4. High kicks (those above the waist and up to the head area) are more easily defended against. I’ve proven it time and time again in my classes and seminars. I pick the oldest (and/or slowest person in the class for this demonstration. I can usually place one or two (high) kicks toward their head area. However, even the oldest and/or slowest person can usually catch or grab my leg on the third or fourth attempt. Once they have your leg (captured), you’ll look like a one-legged, Irish step dancer. It’s not a pretty sight, to be sure!

With my comments in mind, this isn’t to say that high kicks are not effective, if delivered with speed and delivered correctly. Many Tae Kwon Do practitioners can routinely kick you “up side your head” all day long. However, this is the exception and not the rule! Try a high kick to someone’s head when your standing on snow- or ice-covered sidewalks. Maybe you’re wearing cowboy boots or sandals when you’re attacked. If you haven’t practiced delivering your high kicks under these circumstances, you’re in trouble!

As mentioned at the onset of this chapter, my good friend and fellow martial artist, Tom Saviano, runs a terrific martial arts school. His school is devoted to real-life, self-defense techniques. Many of the techniques that Saviano teaches were developed by our mutual friend, Master John McSweeney. One such technique is the “Leopard Palm”.

CASE STUDY: The Sumo Wrestler

Saviano trains one of the best all-around “street” fighters I’ve seen– Keith Hackney. Hackney is a former Navy SEAL with arms like boulders. He is a strong kicker (low kicks) and stands about 5′ 11” weighing in at around 200lbs.

Hackney has competed in several “Ultimate Fighting Challenges” over the years. These fights are advertised as real-life scenarios. Well, not exactly! There are certain rules that must be followed when fighting your opponent in these fights. However, keep in mind that there are NO rules on the street, and in a street fight there is no second place winner.

It was Hackney’s good fortune to draw a Sumo Wrestler as his opponent. This walking refrigerator stood 6′ 8” tall and weighed-in at over 640lbs. He was billed as the “world’s largest athlete”. If you saw his size, you wouldn’t have much argument with this claim.

At the start of the fight, Hackney attempted a combination of front snap kicks and side kicks to the monster’s knees and legs, all to no avail! It was a feeble attempt, one better reserved for a lesser opponent. The only real target that Hackney could possibly attack was the head area.

The monster Sumo Wrestler came at Hackney; Hackney hit him with a Leopard Palm to the forehead. The monster reeled and went down like a ton of bricks, only to rise again. Had this been a mere mortal who Hackney was fighting, he would have stayed down!

In 1 minute and 59 seconds, Hackney had beaten the giant, but not without injury. Hackney had broken his right hand as a result of numerous Leopard Palm, Hammer Fist, and Upswing strikes to the Sumo Wrestler.

In an interview after the fight, the giant Sumo Wrestler said he had “never been hit ‘flush’ before.” Hackney gave the monster a lesson he would not soon forget.

LESSON LEARNED:

Obviously, the bigger they are, the harder they fall! Hackney, against the advice of his trainer– Tom Saviano, had decided to launch an attack against the Sumo wrestler’s legs, but it was all without any effect.

The sheer size and build of the Sumo Wrestler didn’t allow for any other vulnerable targets, except for the head and face area. Hackney took advantage of his one and only target, and he gave it everything he had. His ferocious attack yielded a victory.

This was a real “David vs. Goliath” battle, one I wouldn’t have wanted to fight. The sheer size, weight, and mass of the Sumo Wrestler could have proven deadly. Having this man simply fall on top of you might have resulted in serious injuries or even death.

TECHNIQUE USED:

John McSweeney’s “Leopard Palm”. This is one of the strongest (if not the strongest) blow you can deliver with your hands. This is basically a kung-fu type of strike, with the added benefit of McSweeney’s further refinement and development.

To perform a Leopard Palm strike, you have several target areas– the bridge of the nose, upper skull, and jaw. Curl your fingers and bend your hand back. The striking surface is the base of the palm. Power comes from the circular movement of your hand, pulled by the shoulder and back muscles and augmented by turning the waist and moving the body center down in conjunction with the strike. The hand loops up, over, and down, smashing right through the target. This is basically the same strike as former world heavyweight boxing champion, (1952-1955) Rocky Marciano used in many of his knockouts. Marciano normally hit the skull or jawbone, and occasionally he broke his thumb because as a boxer he hit with a clenched fist.

CONCLUSIONS:

You must condition yourself to be constantly alert! Stay in condition “yellow” during all your waking hours. Don’t allow yourself to lapse into condition “white” for any reason. You’ll know when you’re in condition “white.” This is when you find flashing red and blue lights behind your car, because the police caught you doing something wrong! Condition “white” is when you find yourself running a red light, smacking into the rear end of another car, and so forth. Your everyday routine should find you in condition “yellow” at all times. Make sure no one sneaks up on you or startles you. Be aware of your surroundings at all times. Make sure you know where you are at all times. Don’t allow yourself to day dream. Be prepared to defend yourself at all times!

The techniques used in all of the above case studies are easy to learn, effective, and devastating. There are no “secrets” in any martial art style; there are only things not yet revealed! Any self-defense instructors who claim to know the hidden “secrets” of the Orient are fooling themselves or you.

In the next chapter, we’ll discuss some “dirty fighting” techniques. Remember, as legendary gunman Bill Jordan said in his book of the same title, there is “No Second Place Winner” in street combat. In real-life street combat, you either win or you lose. If you lose, odds are pretty good that you’ll end up seriously hurt, crippled for life (physically and/or emotionally), or dead! You have to do whatever it takes to win.

Remember, this is: Street Combat – This Ain’t No Game!

Letter Re: Solar Well Pump

HJL,

I agree with GL, the Grundfos SQF line of off-grid well pumps are superior products. My well is using the 11-SQF-2 pump. The correct operating voltage range is 30-300 VDC or 90-240 VAC @ 50/60 Hz. Maximum current draw of this set of pump products is 8.4 amps, regardless of input voltage. The pump contains an MPPT power controller. Oh, these are NOT inexpensive pumps.

Note, if you are supplying less than 120 volts, the GPM of the pump must be down-rated. This is important when running from solar panels but even more so when running from batteries. See the technical literature for details. It is a very good, thorough document and details configurations for solar, wind, and generator environments. Take note that if your generator outlets are GFCI, Grundfos says that the pump will not operate. I have not confirmed this, as my generator is not GFCI.

Grundfos literature for the SQFlex pumps can be found at Grundfos SQFlex Literature – R.G.

Economics and Investing:

Video: Ann Barnhardt exposes the blatant fraud in US financial markets, the IRS scandal, the financial enslavement of the American people, and whether Obama is conspiring to collapse our economy!

o o o

Why Another Great Stock Market Crash Is Coming

o o o

The mega Chinese stock market bubble: Over half of new investors only have a junior high education or less and the Shanghai Composite is up 100 percent in one year.

o o o

Citi Economist Says It Might Be Time to Abolish Cash

Odds ‘n Sods:

Eighth Grader Charged With Felony Cybercrime For Changing Teacher’s Desktop Wallpaper. Whatever happened to a teacher explaining to a child why this was wrong, that the computer is NOT his property (I remember my parents explaining PROPERTY RIGHTS to me before I even went to school), and calling his parents and all of them sitting down and explaining this to the child! Another clueless teacher! – H.L.

o o o

I don’t recall seeing anything about this in news from the American Redoubt.

Wyoming Governor Vetos Asset Forfeiture Reform Bill

Meanwhile down in New Mexico they got it right, and it only took 4,000 phone calls from citizens.

New Mexico Bill to Curb ‘Policing for Profit’ Signed Into Law. – S.M.

o o o

California approves bill banning child vaccine exemptions. – T.P.

o o o

Police Want “Eye Blinding” Laser To Add To their Military-Style Arsenal. – B.B.

o o o

Illinois schools can require students to hand over their social media passwords. – T.P.

Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“And after six days Jesus taketh with him Peter, and James, and John, and leadeth them up into an high mountain apart by themselves: and he was transfigured before them. And his raiment became shining, exceeding white as snow; so as no fuller on earth can white them. And there appeared unto them Elias with Moses: and they were talking with Jesus.” Mark 9:2-4 (KJV)

Notes for Saturday – April 11, 2015

April 11th is the birthday of John Milius, who was born in 1944. He both wrote the screenplays and directed the films Dillinger, The Wind and the Lion, Big Wednesday, Conan the Barbarian, Red Dawn, Farewell to the King, and Flight of the Intruder. He also wrote the screenplays of the first two Dirty Harry movies as well as the first draft of the screenplay for Patton (before Francis Ford Coppola turned it into a vaguely anti-war commentary laced with references to reincarnation). Milius is JWR’s favorite Hollywood writer and director, in part because he stands for everything that Hollywood doesn’t.

o o o

Today, we present another entry for Round 58 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $12,000+ worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value),
  2. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  3. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chromlined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR type rifle to have quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools, and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  4. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul pmags 30rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt. (An equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions.),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  7. A Model 120 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $340 value),
  8. A $300 gift certificate from Freeze Dry Guy,
  9. A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo,
  10. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304,
  11. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $300 gift certificate, and
  12. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second Prize:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
  3. Acorn Supplies is donating a Deluxe Food Storage Survival Kit with a retail value of $350,
  4. The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package–enough for two families of four, seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate– a $325 retail value,
  5. A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials,
  6. Twenty Five books, of the winners choice, of any books published by PrepperPress.com (a $270 value),
  7. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $150 gift certificate, and
  8. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. *Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  6. APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Y-Shot Slingshot and a Locking Rifle Rack (a $379 value), and
  8. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 58 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

The 100-Year Geomagnetic Storm and The Electric Grid – Part 2, by Tango Delta

Defense Strategies

If you’re not ready for TEOTWAWKI, you’re probably asking, “Can’t we do something to keep the grid from going down?” The answer is “yes”. There are two approaches– early warning and hardening of equipment.

In theory, early warning relies on the ACE and DSCOVR satellites, located one million miles from the earth, to measure the intensity and polarity of a storm and then issue warnings, which utilities would use to take steps to protect their equipment. In reality, large storms are too fast, allowing maybe 15 minutes of warning. Nuclear plants are supposed to be in “cold shutdown” if outside power is expected to be lost. There is no way to do that in 15 minutes. If a utility wants to take pre-emptive action, it has to shut down before it knows the polarity of the storm. Polarity is key, because a huge storm with the wrong polarity may be no danger. The CEO who blacks out his system for a false alarm will be gone. So, no utility will do it. Nobody will say that early warning is not a practical defense, especially after we just spent $340 million to launch DSCOVR. However, GIC is generated by both geomagnetic storms and by the E3 component of a High-altitude ElectroMagnetic Pulse (HEMP) nuclear detonation. A HEMP detonation over New York City is predicted to take out 551 EHV transformers, which is 51% more than the 365 predicted from a 100-year geomagnetic storm, and there will be no warning for a HEMP! However, hardening provides protection from both sources of GIC.

So hardening is the other preventive action. The goal of hardening is to have your equipment be able to ride out a storm without depending on human operators to make all the right choices at just the right time. The definitive source is John Kappenman’s Meta R-322 report, “Low Frequency Protection Concepts for Electric Power Grids: Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC) and E-3 HEMP Mitigation”, in which he describes three basic choices– series capacitors, neutral blocking capacitors, and neutral resistors.

Series capacitors are installed on the transmission lines. They completely block GICs on lines where they are installed, and their “reactive power contribution is instantaneous and self-regulatory.” [Gruenbaum & Rasmussen, Series Capacitors for Increased Power Transmission Capability of a 500kV Grid Interconnect, pg 2. undated] They are the preferred choice in the long EHV lines in the western U.S. and Quebec, because they have the everyday financial benefit of providing “a considerable increase of the power transmission capacity over the corridor, reducing or postponing the need for additional transmission lines” [Gruenbaum & Rasmussen, p 6]. The down side to this option is that they are very expensive and the control mechanisms are subject to being tricked by the harmonics from GICs, potentially resulting in loss of reactive power just when needed most to maintain voltages during a geomagnetic storm. Also, modeling of their use in the western U.S. indicates that they would only reduce total GICs by 13-22% and in Quebec by about 30% for the entire system [Kappenman, Meta R-322, pp 3-4].

Neutral blocking capacitors completely block GICs in their transformers. However, by completely blocking these currents, they force the current elsewhere in the system, like series capacitors. Since the grid needs to be grounded for fault conditions, bypasses need to be added. These two issues vastly complicate the engineering of these devices over a system and add considerable expense. A FEMA workshop in February of 2010 concluded, “Hardening EHV lines and transformers through the installation of neutral-blocking capacitors is possible. But doing it for all utilities supporting 345kV and above is economically prohibitive.” Still, for a very at-risk high value EHV transformer, they may be the only option. After the 1989 storm, Quebec Hydro spent C$1.2 billion (C$32/person served) on a combination of series capacitors and neutral blocking capacitors.

The third option, and the one clearly preferred by Kappenman for most locations, is the low-ohm neutral resistor. The neutral resistor only blocks about 60% of the GIC flow through it. In the 100-year storm model, modified to include 1388 (about half of the eastern U.S. “fleet”) lower voltage 230kV transformers, 551 of 3550 transformers are predicted to be damaged. With 5-ohm resistors on all transformers, only 37 are damaged, which is a 93% reduction. [Meta R-322, figure 7-19 and pg. 7-14] Neutral resistors do not interfere with normal fault protection and are simple devices, which makes them the low-cost alternative.

A fourth option is to mitigate impacts from the storm (not necessarily the damages) by stockpiling spare transformers and other equipment, adding more backup generators and greatly increasing fuel supplies for all backups. However, buying spare transformers is expensive and risky, because you don’t know exactly which ones will fail.

Cost estimates for hardening are all over the map. John Kappenman, the primary author of the Metatech 2008 report, has been quoted as estimating $1 billion for “hardening and stocking replacement parts” [personal communication with Matthew Stein, When Technology Fails, NEXUS magazine article 2008]. The latest estimate I found was from Congressional sub-committee testimony by Joseph McClelland, director of the Office of Electric Energy Reliability for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on June 12, 2012. He estimated the cost of hardening (type not specified) electrical grids against geomagnetic disturbances at $500,000 per transformer. For low-ohm neutral resistors total estimated costs, including peripherals and installation is $40-100,000 for each resistor [Meta R-322, p. xi]. If the 3550 transformers in the expanded 100-year storm model were all protected the maximum cost would be $355 million (or $1.15 per person) for a hardened national grid. This is minuscule compared to the trillions it would cost to recover from a 100-year storm.

There have been three bills introduced in Congress to require protection of the national grid– the GRID Act, the SHIELD Act, and the Critical Infrastructure Protection Act (CIPA). The sponsors of the GRID Act surveyed 150 companies in the bulk power industry and found that only 27% of the 90 respondents had “taken specific measures to protect against or respond to geomagnetic storms” and that “most utilities do not own spare transformers“ [Electric Grid Vulnerability, staff report of Congressmen Markey and Waxman, May 2013]. This indicates how little the power industry is doing voluntarily to address the grid’s vulnerability. It motivated the sponsors to re-introduce the GRID Act. None of the three bills have made it through Congress.

Maine was the first state to pass its own requirement for grid protection. Other states may follow, but it’s hard to imagine states having more success than federal legislators.

In 2012, with the early bills bogged down in Congress, FERC took the unprecedented step of issuing FERC Order 779, requiring the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) to establish minimum reliability standards for protection from geomagnetic storms and GICs. NERC is a unique organization that is the agency appointed to establish reliability standards for the electric industry. Its membership consists of the companies it regulates, and it takes 75% membership approval to pass a new standard. The grid– this country’s most critical infrastructure– is self-regulated. The exception to this is nuclear power plants, which are under the jurisdiction of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

NERC’s membership approved reliability standards for GICs in December of 2014. Power industry watchdog groups have attacked the NERC “100-year benchmark storm” as “junk science” [Dr. Peter Pry, Ex. Dir. of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, in comments to the “The Blaze” 10/24/2014]. A summary of the comments from reviewers of the NERC draft standards in October of 2014 identifies the following defects in the proposed standards:

  1. The benchmark 100-year storm is 1170 nT/min at 60 degrees of magnetic latitude while previous research has established the 100-year storm to be 4000-5000 nT/min at 50-55 degrees magnetic latitude.
  2. The NERC standard, when compared to actual measurements in previous storms, underestimates by 100-400%. When Kappenman’s 100-year storm model is subjected to the same scrutiny, it is generally within 20%.
  3. There have been three storms in just the past 40 years that “greatly exceed” the benchmark standard [comments of Kappenman and Birnbach on Draft Standard TPL-007-1, submitted to NERC October 10, 2014]. Actual measurements in Tillamok, Oregon for a storm on Oct. 30, 2003 illustrates that the benchmark standard extrapolated per the NERC formula is only 1/30 of what is expected in a real 100-year storm.

When the proposed reliability standard is forwarded to FERC, they may only approve (without modifications) or disapprove. In an interview with “The Blaze” in October of 2014, Dr. Peter Pry commented, “It is better to have no GMD (geomagnetic disturbance) standard than a fake GMD standard that will lull policymakers and the public into complacency about an existential threat to our civilization.” It is believed by some that NERC wants a minimal standard approved by FERC. When catastrophe happens they can then dodge liability by claiming that their members “met the federal standard.”

The vulnerability of EHV transformers to HEMP and geomagnetic GICs is real and resulting damages are a matter of when, not if. FEMA-style recovery is not feasible for long term nationwide impacts. Early warning is impractical for geomagnetic storms and non-existent for HEMP attacks. Hardening appears to be the only logical approach to preventing economic and societal collapse, and a program of primarily low-ohm resistors seems the clear affordable path to transformer protection. FERC rule-making is not getting the reliability standards that are needed, and most legislative solutions follow a similar NERC reliability standards approach.

No modern power system has ever experienced a 100-year geomagnetic storm, so investor-owned (for profit) utility company execs cannot get their heads around the dire consequences of Kappenman’s model. But how can they be so blind to the fact that it is far less expensive to prevent damages than to pay the consequences of outages, much less the cost of transformer replacements, especially when they can pass the costs on to their customers?

In “Risk Mitigation in the Electric Power Sector: Serious Attention Needed”, Daniel C. Hurley, et al state that “the private sector generally will not invest in activities which negatively impact the bottom line or for which a known steady return on investment does not exist. Thus it falls to the government to invest in activities measured not by return on investment but rather in terms of the “common good“. When neither the private sector nor the government see the benefit of spending $1.15 per person to prevent TEOTWAWKI, it is left to informed individuals to spend thousands to fend for themselves. A 100-year geomagnetic storm is an inevitable natural event. Add to it the other grid threats of HEMP, physical attack, and cyber attack and preparing for a grid down world makes more sense than ever.

Letter Re: Strike-anywhere Matches

HJL,

I have just a quick follow-up to the recent Odds & Sods note about how bad current Strike Anywhere matches have become. Instructables has directions for making your own.

HJL responds: Given the scarcity of Strike Anywhere matches where I live (and the poor quality), I’m inclined to try this. If anyone else does, make sure you follow reasonable safety precautions, including ventilation. Given that you are working with wet materials, the danger should be minimal in all aspects except the removal of the phosphorus from the box. Remember that phosphorus is toxic; you should minimize contact with your bare skin, and do not ingest it.

Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“And Aaron lifted up his hand toward the people, and blessed them, and came down from offering of the sin offering, and the burnt offering, and peace offerings. And Moses and Aaron went into the tabernacle of the congregation, and came out, and blessed the people: and the glory of the Lord appeared unto all the people. And there came a fire out from before the Lord, and consumed upon the altar the burnt offering and the fat: which when all the people saw, they shouted, and fell on their faces.” Leviticus 9:22-24 (KJV)

Notes for Friday – April 10, 2015

April 10, 1796 was the birthday of James Jim Bowie, who died March 6, 1836 at the Battle of the Alamo.

o o o

Today, we present another entry for Round 58 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $12,000+ worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value),
  2. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  3. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chromlined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR type rifle to have quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less then one minute without the use of any tools, and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  4. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul pmags 30rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt. (An equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions.),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  7. A Model 120 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $340 value),
  8. A $300 gift certificate from Freeze Dry Guy,
  9. A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo,
  10. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304,
  11. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $300 gift certificate, and
  12. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second Prize:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
  3. Acorn Supplies is donating a Deluxe Food Storage Survival Kit with a retail value of $350,
  4. The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package–enough for two families of four, seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate– a $325 retail value,
  5. A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials,
  6. Twenty Five books, of the winners choice, of any books published by PrepperPress.com (a $270 value),
  7. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $150 gift certificate, and
  8. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. *Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  6. APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Y-Shot Slingshot and a Locking Rifle Rack (a $379 value), and
  8. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 58 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

The 100-Year Geomagnetic Storm and The Electric Grid – Part 1, by Tango Delta

An average of once every one hundred years the sun takes aim at earth and launches a ginormous coronal mass ejection(CME). Less than a day later, it arrives as a cloud of charged particles and hits the earth’s magnetic field. It has a southern polarity and, therefore, “couples” with the earth’s magnetosphere, creating swirling “electrojets” of charged particles 100km above the earth. These produce geomagnetically-induced currents (GIC) in the earth itself. These currents flow into the grounding mechanisms of large Extra High Voltage (EHV) transmission towers. The current then flows through the transmission lines and into the EHV transformers in the system. This quasi-DC current (in an AC system) produces “half cycle saturation” that overheats and permanently damages those $5-10 million boxcar-sized transformers. The current also produces harmonics that can damage or trick other components in the system, resulting in a collapse of the grid. The most important EHV transformers are the Generator Step Up (GSU) units located at nuclear or equally large coal generating plants. When these transformers fail, there is no way to get power from the plant to the grid. The icing on this cake is that it takes about a year to order, manufacture, and install a replacement EHV transformer (when the grid is up everywhere).

The Situation

In 2008 a leading geomagnetic storm researcher developed a model to simulate the effects of another 100-year storm on the modern electric grid. The study, “Severe Space Weather Events; Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts” done by Metatech, an electric industry consultant (working for the Congressional EMP Commission and FEMA, not the Sierra Club), predicted that in a geomagnetic storm equivalent to the 1921 “100-year storm” approximately 365 EHV transformers would fail. The grid could not compensate for that many failures, leading to collapse east of a line from Chicago to Memphis to Jacksonville, FL and in the Pacific Northwest. The estimate for full recovery is four to ten years at a cost of trillions of dollars. The above is not the worst case scenario. The modeled storm is centered over southern Canada. If it is farther south, the predicted damage is over 600 EHV transformers. The model only examines transformers down to 345kV. Many 230kV transformers will fail, too. Also, storms larger than the 100-year storm have struck us in the past.

This vulnerability was first documented with the 1989 Quebec Hydro storm. A moderate-sized storm took Quebec and part of the Northeast grid offline in 92 seconds, put six million people in the dark, and immediately damaged two EHV transformers in Quebec and one in the U.S. The two Quebec transformers were not damaged directly by the GIC but by “the uncontrolled operation of circuit breakers in rapid succession” causing overloads as the grid collapsed. [Kappenman, Meta-R-319 p.2-12, 2010.] Also noteworthy is that 11 nuclear power plant GSU transformers needed to be replaced over the next two years, indicating that even if GIC doesn’t immediately kill a transformer, it can greatly shorten its life. The cost of this storm has been estimated at $360-645 million [Tsurutani, et al, Journal of Geophysical Research, 3July2003 online]. In the “Halloween Storms” of Oct-Nov 2003, a series of storms destroyed 14 EHV transformers in South Africa [NERC, HILF, 2009]. These storms produced lower GICs, but they lasted for several days. The transformers failed over a period of 10 months following the storms, so there was no massive blackout during the storm. Instead, there were brownouts and rolling blackouts as transformers failed. This storm was also important because previously these latitudes from the magnetic poles (equivalent to southern California and Florida) were thought to be safe from damaging GICs.

Another important event occurred in 2003. A high voltage line touched a tree and precipitated a collapse of the grid from Ohio to New York City. This put 50 million people in the dark. It was important, since it showed that even 14 years after the 1989 storm we could not prevent cascading collapses of the grid. The minimum cost estimate for the blackout is $6 billion [CENTRA, 2011]. Later, we will see that blackouts cost much more than hardening the grid to prevent grid damage and collapses.

There have been other more powerful storms, but they pre-date a modern electrical grid. The 1921 “Railroad Storm” is named for the impacts to railroad signaling and switching devices, as well as the trans-Atlantic cable and telegraph systems. It has been estimated to have been ten times the intensity of the 1989 Quebec Hydro storm [Meta R-322 p. 7-5]. It is considered the “100-year” geomagnetic storm and is the basis of the Metatech modeling from 2008 and 2010.

The largest recorded geomagnetic storm was the “Carrington event”. The name is from the astronomer who was actually looking (indirectly) at the sun in 1859 when the CME erupted. Nitrates are produced in the atmosphere above the poles by geomagnetic storms and settle to the polar ice. Measurements from ice core samples from 1561 to 1994 show that the 1859 storm was the most intense in that 433 year time span [McCracken, 2001].

EHV transformers are large, custom designed, and very expensive, so there are few spares. A representative of one, large, electrical provider estimated its number of spare EHV transformers “would be a single digit percentage” [comment of Mr. Heyeck of American Electric Power at the FERC Technical Staff Conference, April 30, 2012]. By 2009, almost no EHV transformers were made in the U.S. However, because 70% of our “fleet” of 2148 EHV transformers is at least 25 years old and 50% is at or beyond its 40-year design lifetime, demand has been increasing since 2002 [Kappenman, Meta-R-319, 2010]. This means that around 1074 new vulnerable transformers, an investment of over $5 billion, will be installed shortly. So, four new EHV/HV transformer plants have been constructed in the U.S. since 2010.

In 2010 the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability issued “Large Transformers and the U.S. Electric Grid” that stated there were six plants producing large transformers in the U.S. Those plants satisfied only 15% of domestic demand. The other 85% was imported. From 2007-2011 an average of 500 Large Power Transformers (LPTs) were imported each year.

Even with four new transformer plants, we still have limited production capability in the U.S. If 365 EHV transformers go down, as the modeling suggests, many will stay down a long time. Although the normal lead time for an EHV transformer is about 12 months, it can be 20 months in some cases [DOE, 2012]. Will they even be able to produce replacement transformers with large parts of the grid down? How long will it take under those conditions?

Ramping up production is seriously impacted by the raw materials for EHV transformers. Even when produced here, many of the materials come from overseas. Copper and “electrical steel” will become very sought after, and not just in the U.S. There were only 13 manufacturers in the world of electrical steel and only a handful of them capable of producing the high-permeability core steel used in LPT cores. Only one is in the U.S. [DOE, 2014]. If the storm affects the whole northern hemisphere, or even the world, know that even though China is a huge transformer producer, it still has to import transformers. Now try to envision the competition for imported transformers. One study suggested that long waits would ensue and “prioritizing delivery to customers would become a politically charged issue” [CENTRA, 2011, p 30]. Also, “If you don’t invest in [hardening] it’s hard to argue you should be first in line for replacement transformers.” [FEMA, Feb. 2010 workshop – Managing Critical Disasters in the Transatlantic Domain – the Case of the Geomagnetic Storm]

So, why has the grid become so vulnerable? First, nobody is responsible for the grid. The grid is really just a bunch of contracts and agreements between competing companies to move electricity among them. The system has three components– the generating plants, EHV and HV transmission lines, and the lower voltage lines that step down voltages and distribute the juice from the transmission lines to local customers. To move electricity most efficiently, transmission voltages are high to minimize resistance. The low resistance increases vulnerability to GICs. A 765kV line permits GICs ten times higher than a 115kV line [NERC, “HILF Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System“, 2009]. The cost considerations also result in a preponderance of single phase and autotransformers, instead of the more durable 3-phase transformers. Finally, the desire to buy inexpensive power a long way away means there are more and more miles of EHV transmission lines. These lines are like antennae; the longer they are, the more current they collect. The age of the transformer fleet also increases its vulnerability.

In 2011 CENTRA Technology, Inc., on behalf of the Office of Risk Management, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, looked at likely consequences of power outages in 20 industries during the storm, one week later, and one month later. During the storm, there are widespread impacts due to the loss of power. Gas stations are unable to refuel vehicles, including freight haulers. Lack of power prevents people from getting their money or spending it. Dark traffic signals impede highway transportation. As backup generators come online, the impacts are reduced for services, such as hospitals, public water and sewer utilities, and emergency services.

The CENTRA report notes that, “…most continuity plans suffice for a period of days, not weeks”. After one week (or less) backup generators begin to run out of fuel. Nuclear power plants have backup power for “…up to 7 days, depending on location and circumstances” [Singh Matharu, NRC, in comments at the FERC Staff Technical Conference on GMD, April 30, 2012]. After that, how do they pump cooling water to the spent rod storage pools? The CENTRA report summarizes, “The concerns as time progresses after the storm grow from economic losses to major health and safety issues” (page 32). When I asked the director of a metropolitan utility how much fuel he had onsite for pumps for the water system, the answer was “about two days”. The answer was the same for chemicals for water and sewage treatment. Our economy is based more and more on “just in time” delivery.

Letter Re: Well Pumps

Hugh,

I’ve been following the discussions about well pumps here and have two concerns: People’s general unfamiliarity with hand pumps and the danger of relying on alternative energy to pump water.

The past two generations don’t know what it’s like to pump water by hand for their daily needs, because they have probably always had electricity for pumping water. As such, many people today do not understand how a pump works or the effort required to bring just a small amount of water to the surface.

Many different types of hand water pumps are now on the market for folks to choose from. Some pumps can be used with existing electric well pumps, if the cylinders are small enough (yielding less water) to fit in the casing with the existing pump. Most of these pumps are installed as an emergency backup and are not practical for long-term use. Some can also pressurize a tank for indoor plumbing; however, it takes a lot of time and effort to pressurize an empty 40-gallon tank to 50 psi with such a small cylinder.

Consumers should take all the claims of capacity, gallons per minute, and ease of operation of manual well pumps with a grain of salt ? unless they have an actual demonstration of a deep-well application that reveals the static water level, size of cylinder, length of stroke, and age and fitness of operator.

When considering a sucker rod hand pump for long-term and heavy use, use metal rigid pipe, not PVC, for the drop pipe. PVC is too lightweight for a sucker rod pump system. When pumping the handle, the cylinder will lift first before the piston begins to move up within the cylinder, causing the drop pipe to compress between the cylinder and wellhead. This causes the pipe to flex and spiral up within the well casing, creating friction between the sucker rod and the inside walls of the drop pipe which reduces the efficiency of the stroke. Eventually, a PVC pipe in the middle of the drop pipe string will crack at a coupling, causing the pump to lose its prime. Metal rigid pipe is much heavier and stronger, maintaining a straighter line between the wellhead and cylinder. Rigid pipe is more expensive, but one should consider the value of fresh water.

There is a hand pump for nearly every need. When selecting a hand pump for your home, farm, or community, consider your average daily use, static water level, size of well casing, water yield, and whether the pump will be used only in emergencies or everyday use. You should also consider the effort required and how much time you will spend pumping for your water needs. The larger the pump cylinder, the better.

My second concern is relying on technology again (a solar pump system) to pump water needed during a SHTF scenario. These systems are just as vulnerable as the power grid is. An EMP or other natural catastrophe can easily disable solar systems. With a disruption in the supply chain, homeowners will be trying to find manual ways to supply their water needs.

Writer G.L. said, “If you want a system you do not have to physically operate on a daily basis or one that will produce a larger volume of water than you can get from a hand pump, a solar pumping system is something to consider.” G.L. may not be aware that there is a hand pump capable of producing high volumes of water. New to the market is the WaterBuck Pump. It has the power and capacity of electric submersible water pumps. The WaterBuck is more expensive than regular hand pumps, but it’s comparable to the cost solar systems. With the right preparation, this pump can also withstand natural catastrophes by being enclosed in a strong structure.

If homeowners want a high-volume hand pump and don’t mind pumping a few minutes a day for their needs, they might want to consider a WaterBuck Pump. – L.G.