Guest Article: Bikers, Bonds, and Black Swans, by Gary Christenson

A “black swan” event occurred at a gathering of outlaw bikers on Sunday, May 17, 2015 in Waco, Texas. According to news stories, a fight broke out between several motorcycle gangs at the Twin Peaks restaurant. At least nine bikers are dead, another 17 were injured, and perhaps as many as 170 were detained or jailed.

Outlaw Bikers:

They are more likely to trade gunfire than bonds, but consider the similarities:

  • Animosity: Rival biker gangs, the Bandidos and the Cossacks, met at the restaurant on Sunday to discuss issues such as territory, licensing fees, and drug revenues.
  • Territory: Control of their territory is vital to their status and drug revenues.
  • Ready To Explode: Those two gangs have been enemies for decades. They have a violent history and much accumulated bitterness. It was a biker and drug fueled bomb ready to explode.
  • A Tiny Spark: The disagreement started over something simple, probably a parking space. It escalated into a brawl that involved fists, feet, clubs, chains, knives, and guns.

The Bond Market:

  • Animosity: Rival monetary authorities often fight and disagree. How will the Greek government pay back the EU and German banks? Bankers in Cyprus warned insiders but stripped private accounts in Cyprus in 2013. How will sovereign governments in Europe, the U.S., the UK, and Japan repay $100’s of Trillions in debt?
  • Territory: Central bankers and politicians demand that they operate “the only game in town” – do it their way or no way. Controlling their territory is vital to their status and revenues.
  • Ready To Explode: Violence will erupt if bankers or government officials admit the answer to the $100 Trillion payback question might be, “no way, and never.” Will more banker “suicides” be required?
  • A Tiny Spark: Under the right circumstances the disaster can begin from almost anything and escalate with a life of its own, such as the financial crash in 2008, ultimately ending in death, destruction, prison, and irreversible changes in the lives of many.

Black Swans:

A financial “black swan” is an unexpected event that has a huge impact when conditions are unstable.

  • Animosity And Territory: It can be initiated by events such as an assassination, military confrontation, storm, bond default (Greece, Ukraine, or Venezuela perhaps), derivative crisis, revaluation of sovereign debt, Chinese declaration that they hold more gold than the U.S. supposedly holds, bond market sell-off, or whatever.
  • Ready To Explode: The conditions to create a major crisis exist in both geopolitical “hot spots” and the global financial system. Many will proclaim that the debt, bond, and currency bubbles are primed and ready for the inevitable crash.
  • A Tiny Spark: All the necessary ingredients for disaster were present in Waco and also exist now in the global financial system as well as in the current political squabbles in Ukraine, the Middle-East, and the South China Sea.

The consequences of a biker brawl, a fight between bankers and debtors, or a confrontation between major powers in Ukraine, Iraq, or the South China Sea will be life changing and irreversible.

If it can happen, and it will eventually happen, which is why people buy insurance. Do you have “black swan” insurance regarding your financial exposure to fiat currencies and paper assets that might be revalued far lower and quite rapidly?

Death, injuries, prison, and life-changing consequences arose from an argument over a parking space. What might occur in an argument over several $Trillion of dodgy sovereign debt or a territorial fight in the Ukraine, Iraq, or Syria?

Do you own insurance in the form of gold and silver, which have NO COUNTER-PARTY RISK?

– Gary Christenson, The Deviant Investor



Two Letters Re: The Noose is Tightening

HJL,

I can confirm Chase has changed their policies. I tried to help a friend by depositing 50 bucks cash in her account, and they said I needed to be a signer on the account. When I asked why, they said it was because of counterfeit bills being deposited into someone else’s account. I thought it was weird that a bank would be concerned with people bringing counterfeit money into a branch. I ended up having to drive the money down to my friend. As I’m writing this, I wonder can you do blind deposits via the drop box anymore? – D.A.

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HJL

I think the invasive questioning depends on the proximity of the employee to government regulators and how high the Texas ratio went. The local bank with the highest Texas ratio (higher equals a higher degree of insolvency) but did not get taken down is very invasive when you want a loan or want to open an account. They have had the FDIC up to their navels and were only saved by Democrat owners. Consequently you have strict adherence to anything that resembles a formal rule and many examiner whims. Bank examiners like pushing bankers around. I’be been one. I’ve seen it. Traveling with socialists is no way to live.

I do not have the same experience opening accounts at a regional bank, which took TARP money. The rank and file are just going through the motions. The place the regional bank balks is in the loan department. They stress your financials like everything is going to go all at once, no matter how diversified you are. The evaluation is done in a central technical evaluation department, which put those people in close proximity to FDIC examiners. Those loan analysts are an uptight bunch. For the record, I used the experience to tighten my own financial picture.

The national banks have systems and have to make numbers. If you fit the gateway parameters, you are in and they cram you through the system. Once size fits all.

A nuance on the war on cash is if the bankers get cash deposits then they HAVE to loan it back out to make all the other performance measures work out. Worthy recipients of these loans are hard to come by. There is hot money out there chasing return. When a swell of hot money comes in, they have to act. When it leaves, it causes pain. It seems they are shunning the “hot money” at some of these banks.

The big picture is they are trying to stop up all the cracks so that you cannot avoid paying taxes by using cash. They are preparing to really tax you. Also, if you will not stand to be taxed, they will trump up charges on banks, movie theaters, a car company, or some other industry and fine them billions. That makes the garden variety anti-capitalist happy, but that corporation just adds it to your bill. The people are always the ones who pay. – RV







Odds ‘n Sods:

Hacked Emails Expose George Soros As Ukraine Puppet-Master. – H.L.

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A useful skill to have: How to Reload an AK-47 With an Injured Arm

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The 7 B’s of Prepping. – G.W.

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Skies are Filled with FBI Aircraft. – B.B.

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So You Want To Vote Republican? A constitutional libertarian perspective at the current political process as election season nears. – B.B.

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Review: the Seven Core Areas of Preparedness. – Avalanche Lily



Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“If people feel lost and alone and helpless and broken and hopeless today, what will it be like if the world really begins to come apart at the hinges?” ? Brandon Andress, And Then the End Will Come!: But Five Things You Need to Know in the Meantime



Notes for Tuesday – June 02, 2015

Today, we present the first entry for Round 59 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The $12,000+ worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value),
  2. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  3. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chromlined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR type rifle to have quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools, and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  4. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul pmags 30rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt. (An equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions.),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  7. A Model 120 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $340 value),
  8. A $300 gift certificate from Freeze Dry Guy,
  9. A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo,
  10. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304,
  11. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $300 gift certificate, and
  12. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second Prize:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
  3. Acorn Supplies is donating a Deluxe Food Storage Survival Kit with a retail value of $350,
  4. The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package–enough for two families of four, seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate– a $325 retail value,
  5. A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials,
  6. Twenty Five books, of the winners choice, of any books published by PrepperPress.com (a $270 value),
  7. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $150 gift certificate, and
  8. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. *Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  6. APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Y-Shot Slingshot and a Locking Rifle Rack (a $379 value), and
  8. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 59 ends on July 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Round 58 Non-Fiction Writing Contest Winners Announced!

First prize goes to Florida Mom for “Our Founding Fathers Were Right” which was posted on April 1st. She will receive the following prizes:

  1. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course (a $1,195 value),
  2. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  3. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 Nato QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chromlined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR type rifle to have quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools, and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  4. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul pmags 30rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt. (An equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions.),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  7. A Model 120 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $340 value),
  8. A $300 gift certificate from Freeze Dry Guy,
  9. A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo,
  10. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304,
  11. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $300 gift certificate, and
  12. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second prize goes to R.H. for “ ‘Internet’ Without Infrastructure – Part 1”, “Part 2”, “Part 3”, “Part 4”, and “Part 5” which were posted on April 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th and 25th. He will receive the following prizes:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A FloJak EarthStraw “Code Red” 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
  3. Acorn Supplies is donating a Deluxe Food Storage Survival Kit with a retail value of $350,
  4. The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package–enough for two families of four, seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate– a $325 retail value,
  5. A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials,
  6. Twenty Five books, of the winners choice, of any books published by PrepperPress.com (a $270 value),
  7. TexasgiBrass.com is providing a $150 gift certificate, and
  8. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.

Third prize goes to C.P. for “An Emergency Hand Pump For A Well” which was posted on May 9th (With pictures on May 29th). He will receive the following prizes:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. *Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  6. APEX Gun Parts is donating a $250 purchase credit,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Y-Shot Slingshot and a Locking Rifle Rack (a $379 value), and
  8. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Honorable Mention prizes ($30 Amazon.com gift certificates via e-mail) have been awarded to the writers of these fine articles:

Note to all Prize winners: Let us know your current e-mail address. We will also need the UPS and USPS addresses for each of the top three prize winners.

Round 58 ended on May 31st, but Round 59 has started, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging. Those articles that we received for Round 58 but that did not get published in time will be automatically entered in Round 59.



Getting Started With Aquaponics – Part 1, by F.B.

Aquaponics is a practical skill to learn for prepping now, while the ability to obtain all the pieces and parts exists. The technology of aquaponics combines raising fish with gardening vegetables only in water. (There is no soil used at all). This usually takes a dedicated room that is water resistant, a reliable continuous (read redundant) source of electricity, food safe tanks of various sizes (any material from plastic to glass), and a good source of water. With the drought in California, which is the part of our nation that supplies a major proportion of the vegetables we find in our stores, reaching epic proportions and potentially hitting historic norms (California is a desert historically), it may be very important to be able to supply your family with vegetables. Based on my experience with my system, I think I can grow anything I can get to sprout. Sprouting various vegetables out of the soil is a challenge all by itself that I won’t discuss here. Water usage in Aquaponics is very low at around 3 percent of a regular garden operation. California should convert to all Aquaponic farms immediately.

Most set ups are small scale, though very large scale, industrial aquaponics businesses have sprung up across the country. For the purposes of this article, I will discuss family-sized operations. My little system is capable of raising 500 pounds of Tilapia (fish) per year as the harvested biomass equivalent of 4000 heads of lettuce a year. This is WAAAY more than my family of six can eat. We have fresh salads daily, fresh fish on demand (literally fresh fillets), tomatoes off the vine in January, peppers, eggplant, peas, cabbages, and spices all year round here in very snowy country. Seeds are available everywhere. Tilapia MAY be available locally from someone like me (I sell them to smaller guys), but ordering them on the web will mean a big airfare, unless you live near a Tilapia farm. (Don’t mix other species with your Tilapia. Do not add snails, gold fish (particularly), or anything else, please.)

My Aquaponics Greenhouse

My garden is established in a 40’X16’ underground greenhouse design, known as a pit greenhouse. The floor of the greenhouse is eight feet below grade and is done in poured concrete with drains every eight feet along the center of the floor for drainage. The walls are eight-inch, reinforced concrete, which is mostly insulated (as we live in a cool climate to -30 in the winter) by dirt which moderates both hot summer temps and cold winter temps. Essentially the structure is a basement with a greenhouse ceiling. Having two inches of polystyrene on the upper four feet of the outer wall moderates winter freezing considerably, also reducing condensation from the very humid environment within on the cooler surfaces. The green house slanted roof above is made of two layer Lexan™ specifically made for green house applications. We used redwood beams wrapped in mylar (reflective) for the roof span. Even with the two layer roof, condensation all through the cool months cause it to rain every day in the greenhouse. This necessitates using all plastic, aluminum, glass, stainless, weather-proof wood and other material for fixtures, cabinets, and tanks, as well as outdoor rated electrical equipment. Big exhaust fans during the warmer month(s) automatically start when the temperature hits the 80 degree mark and shut off at 70. In the summer we extend a 40 percent shade cloth over the structure to reduce heat gain and excessive sunlight on the plants. Even tomatoes will grow under 60 percent full sun. Growing tomatoes is the pinnacle of success with aquaponics, so they are something to shoot for about a year from starting your system. New systems will not successfully grow them.

Any aquaponics set up may be scaled to suit the size area you have available for the operation. There are many different kinds of aquaponics systems, and I will talk only about my set up. It took me a year from inception of the idea to get it all built and working to the first crop. Again, each building situation will be different. Warm climates versus cold climates obviously have different requirements for maintaining year round operation (keeping things warm but not too warm and so forth). Alternative energy sources are obviously quite applicable for this technology if you can guarantee 24/7 water circulation to your operation. Our heating bill for the whole severe winter this year was 250 dollars worth of propane. It never got below 65 degrees all winter. There are some operations that utilize hot water from nearby oil wells for heat during the winter. Others use solar water systems, while others use solar electricity. I have 4000 watts of solar panels, grid tie in, and propane generator redundant backup, plus the ability to plug in a small gasoline generator if I have to. Again, 24/7 power is a requirement for aquaponics. If you don’t have this ability, you need to consider non-circulating hydroponics. A researcher/PhD at the University of Hawaii called Kratky has a video that explains that technique in detail. Greenhouse design is outside the scope of this discussion.

If you have had aquarium fish before successfully, you should be able to master the skills necessary to raise Tilapia in an aquaponic setting. (My wife and I used to own and operate a pet shop.) Tilapia fillets are sold in grocery stores all over the country and are almost all farm raised in ponds from warm areas. Some states prohibit their presence due to their ability to rapidly populate warm waters. Water under 58 degrees will render Tilapia sterile and unable to breed, so northern states have no such limitation. Tilapia are mouth brooders, and females will protect eggs and fingerlings IN their mouth when danger appears. They are hard NOT to breed, and over-population is sometimes a problem.

The Cooperation of Fish and Plants

The object is, of course, for the fish food to be processed by the fish, the fish then poop, and the poop converts via bacteria eventually into nitrate, which the plants consider fertilizer. Tilapia and plants living together need compromised water conditions. Tilapia are prolific breeders, if fed well and kept in proper water conditions. For aquaponics purposes, your water should have a pH of 6.4-7.0 and never be any higher than 7.2 because plants start to starve (unable to take nutrition from the water). Plus higher pH’s tend to make what ammonia is present in the water (from fish respiration and food/fecal decay) to be more toxic coming out of solution over pH of 7.0. Water temperature is also a compromise. Tilapia do better at 80 to 85 degrees. They grow very fast at that temperature. Plants don’t like it over 75 degrees, so that is where my system is set.

The size of your system will determine how many fish and how many plants you can grow. My system has eight fish tanks, consisting of two 125-gallon breeder glass tanks, two 40-gallon refuge tanks, and four 110-gallons plastic tubs for feeding out/growing the fish. That’s a total of 770 gallons of fish elbow room. There are three 70-gallon plastic settling/filter tanks, called clarifiers, that remove any large floating debris/fecal matter/uneaten food from the fish tanks and two anaerobic mineralizing tanks (40 gallons each) that catch small particles and then let them slowly turn into trace minerals under low oxygen conditions. Water from the mineralizing tanks flows into a small heavily aerated tank that drives off any CO2 from the water and adds O2 to the system. From there, the water flows to the plant raft tanks. My total tank capacity is roughly 2000 gallons. You can keep as much as one pound of fish for every two gallon of water in the system, but that is a maximum. Your milage will vary. More population means VERY close monitoring of conditions. With that many fish/that much feeding, things could go bad very quickly. You have to be meticulous about your water quality.

The water actually is on sort of a race track as it circles about. In my system, two 1” pumps push water from the last plant tanks (lowest part of the system) up to the fish tanks (highest part of the system). From there, water just runs down hill to the clarifiers (first filter tanks), from the clarifiers to the mineralizers (second filter tanks), then to the degassing tanks, then back to the plant raft tanks. When I drain water from the system, an automatic float lets in reversed osmosis (RO) water, which prevents an increase of total dissolved solids into the system. This necessitated a 1000 gallon a day RO filter, which wasn’t free unfortunately. You have to add your own salts to the water for pH buffering (the tendency of the water to be stabile at a certain pH level because of hardness). This is better than having hard water in the system and increasing its hardness due to evaporation and replacement. The only way to deal with that is to do regular (weekly) partial water changes (read work). The RO does a lot of that for you, though it doesn’t reduce overall water use. It just makes it so you don’t have to change water as much manually, which results in the loss of trace minerals you work hard to accumulate for the plants.



Three Letters Re: The Noose is Tightening

HJL,

I recommend that readers strive to make deposits and withdrawals via an ATM. There is no opportunity to be interrogated by a teller.

I’ve also found that a deposit of a larger value seems to clear faster (i.e. funds available in my account) if I perform the deposit via an ATM. – P.S.

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HJL,

I checked with a friend of mine that works in a small community bank in NJ. She was not aware of the most intrusive questions at all. Income and employer of both to make a deposit plus the other questions they do not do. At times, identification is required for split check (receive some cash back) deposits, but as we have heard Chase Bank is making people show i.d. and be an account holder for cash deposits. They just want to track and record all about us. – D.S.

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Dear HJL,

I have worked in the banking industry for over 26 years and have never heard of such requirements. First, the bank would already have much of the information on file since he already had an account. My question would be, “Did he try and cash the two checks first, then deposit them as cash?” If so, I could see it could happen. If the teller cashed the checks in the system and they totaled over the $10,000 amount then a currency transaction report would have showed up on the teller’s computer. However, at that time the teller should have bypassed the CTR requirement since no money actually was given. This would be the only possible reason for asking these types of questions.

I would be very interested in what bank did this. Also, if this is true, I would have immediately closed my account out and moved it to another institution. – L.F.

HJL Adds: It could also be a local bank policy. I have seen some truly bizarre behavior from local banks where they attempt to blame government or corporate policy for local policy. It is also possible to have a teller issue, either nefarious or ignorant in nature. In either case, if the questions were truly posed the way the letter was presented, it’s probably time to move banks. I’ve made such moves for much simpler reasons. I would like to believe that a smaller credit union or similar institution is better, but I’ve had my share of issues there as well.





Economics and Investing:

GERMAN GOLD BUYING: A Chart You Have To See

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Margin Debt Breaks Out: Hits New Record 50% Higher Than Last Bubble Peak

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Items from Mr. Econocobas:

Peter Schiff- The Fed Considers a More Seasoned Approach – While Peter and others may not view the Fed in an insidious or conspiratorial way, I consider that to be a bit wishfully naïve. As I have heard JWR say in an interview, if you look at legislation it always seems to favor the bankers.

Consumer Comfort in U.S. Slumps on Views of Buying Climate

Financial Insanity Grips The World – This is a good read. It’s not for the faint of heart.

Video: Peter Schiff – Fed Destroyed the Economy-QE 4 Guaranteed



Odds ‘n Sods:

The Simple Off-Grid Guide To Making Paper. – D.S.

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I wonder how long before this shows up in North America or Europe? China unveils world’s first facial recognition ATM. – B.B.

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Is it time for civil disobedience of kludgeocratic bureaucracy?. – JBG

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Global Warming Agenda driven “study” attempts to paint Christians as anti-science fools: New study reaffirms the link between conservative religious faith and climate change doubt. – T.P.

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House Democrat Backed By Insurance Companies Pushes Mandatory Gun Insurance



Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“We’d stared into the face of Death, and Death blinked first. You’d think that would make us feel brave and invincible. It didn’t.” ? Rick Yancey, The 5th Wave