“I retired from public Business from a thorough Conviction that it was not in my Power to do any Good, and very much disgusted with Measures, which appeared to me inconsistent with common Policy and Justice.” – George Mason
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Notes for Thursday – February 04, 2016
On this day in 1789, George Washington became the first and only president to be unanimously elected by the Electoral College. This was repeated again on this same day in 1792. Because of the way the early American voting procedure worked, the electors cast two votes with no distinction for president or vice president. Washington was chosen by all of the electors and is considered to have been unanimously elected. Of the others on the ballots, Adams had the most votes and thus became the vice president.
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Today, we present another entry for Round 63 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:
First Prize:
- A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
- A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
- A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
- DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chrome-lined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
- Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul PMAG 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
- Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
- The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
- A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
- KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304, and
- Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).
Second Prize:
- A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
- A FloJak EarthStraw Code Red 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
- A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
- A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
- A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
- A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
- A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
- RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
- Safecastle is providing a package of 10 LifeStraws (a $200 value)
Third Prize:
- A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
- A $245 gift certificate from custom knife-maker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
- A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
- Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
- Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
- Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
- Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
- Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
Round 63 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
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Making a “Last Run” When the SHTF- Part 4, by GMJ
In Part 3 of this series, we conducted information-gathering trips to see how our community responds to a developing disaster. In Part 4, we will analyze our data and use it to execute a safe and effective last run.
Think Twice, Act Once
Having gathered the data about your immediate area, take time to analyze your findings and decide whether or not a last run will benefit you and your family. Under the best of circumstances, there will be risks; I don’t want to minimize that. However, if you have done your homework, you will have a good idea of where to go, when to be there, what to buy, and what not to worry about not buying. Earlier is always better.
Executing the Last Run
A last run is your family’s final opportunity to stock up and fill all the available space in your home with food, water, and other supplies that you will need for an extended emergency. Use your knowledge wisely.
Ideally, you will begin your last run no later than 24 hours prior to the start of an expected event. Two or three days (or more) is much better, safer, and has a significantly greater probability of the items you need being available. Try to get ahead of the herd. This assumes that you have paid attention to your local news and know that your situation is deteriorating. The closer you are in time to the disaster event, the greater the risk of failure to procure what you need, as well as risking possible physical injury during the shopping and loading phases of the trip. Worse, if the disaster comes on suddenly or if you are well into the disaster event and must shop to replenish your supplies, you will be at even greater risk because of the number of people who are in the same or worse condition.
Be smart. Do not underestimate how dangerous people can be when they are hungry and desperate. Think mobs, riots, political protests, Black Friday insanity. You’ve seen on television how rapidly situations can devolve. Don’t let yourself become trapped.
Be sure that you are driving a dependable vehicle with as close to a full tank of gas as you can manage. Routinely keeping your gas tank at least three-quarters full at all times is a great safety practice.
If you have the option, choose a vehicle that has a trunk, where you can lock your purchases. Even if the car or truck has tinted windows, it’s not much of a leap for criminals to assume that there are things of value inside. Breaking a window and snatching your purchases or your purse takes only seconds.
Take another adult with you, if possible, because there’s more safety in numbers. If you live in a place where open or concealed carry is legal, seriously consider one or both of you being armed.
Unless you absolutely have to, don’t take children with you. There is no sense in putting their lives at risk, and they will further complicate a situation that might already be dicey. Remember, you might be just fine in the store, but the parking lot could be another matter entirely. Be prepared, mentally and physically, or don’t go.
Shop during daylight hours. Even if your shopping center has security lights, they are dependent upon electricity. Expect store security personnel to be overwhelmed or unavailable. Park as close to the door of the store as possible, or if parking near the store is at a premium, park in as open an area as you can so that you can see what is going on around you. Criminals often hide in and around parked cars.
Be sure to have sufficient cash to pay for your supplies. The electricity needed to process credit/debit cards might be on in some stores but not others, or it might suddenly go down while you’re in the line waiting to check out. Some stores may or may not accept checks, so don’t assume you’re oky there. Besides, paying in cash is faster.
When leaving the store, don’t just blindly head for the car. Wait a moment or two in the doorway to survey the parking lot and evaluate your environment. Has it snowed while you were inside and now you have to clean off your windows? Is the parking lot pavement slippery and covered with ice? Are there folks just “kinda hangin’ around” trying to look unobtrusive? Trust your spidey sense; they might be up to no good.
If you don’t think it’s safe, for heaven’s sake, don’t leave the store. Alert the store management of your suspicions and see what they have to say. They might provide you with an escort to your car or at least watch your purchases while you go fetch your vehicle. If you have another adult with you, you have the option of splitting up– one to get the car, the other to stay inside with the purchases, then one to load and the other to be a lookout. The decision to divide forces or not will be up to you. Give these risks some thought in advance, and if in doubt don’t go out.
Some Thoughts on Carrying Cash
Comparatively few people today regularly use cash for their buying transactions. The success of the last run depends heavily on using cash. That carries with it some major risks. If stores have no electricity, they may or may not continue to operate. If they do, they generally put a limit on how much you can spend and require that the items be paid for in cash. If the stores do require cash transactions, that will become known very quickly. Robberies, muggings, and car-jackings already occur in store parking lots and malls all too frequently. Expect those crimes to increase in areas where criminals are absolutely sure that everyone in the store has cash on them.
Be as small a crime target as possible. Don’t wear clothing with high-dollar designer labels or expensive jewelry. Try to be as ordinary and unnoticed as you can. If you can, leave your purse or wallet at home and just carry the basics– ID, driver’s license, and carry permit, if you have one.
Before you leave your car, check to make sure you are not being watched, then spread your money around on your person so that it’s not all in one spot for pickpockets to grab. Know how much you put where, so that you don’t have to fumble for bills at the checkout.
Don’t flash your cash at the register. Have a good idea of what you want to buy and how much it will cost. If there is a sales limit, take only that amount (plus a little more, perhaps) into the store with you. Leave the rest at home or secure it in your car, and be sure to lock the car and take the keys with you.
Be aware. Be prepared. Knowing where certain items are stocked is very useful and can help shorten your time in the store. The next time you shop, before TSHTF, make note of how the store is laid out and where your items are located.
Keep your wits about you every second and keep your mouth shut. No one except your shopping companion needs to hear anything you have to say. This is serious business and not the time to chatter. Your object is to get in, get out, and get home safely. If that means leaving your paid-for purchases behind and running for safety, so be it. Do not hesitate.
A special note: In an emergency a cellphone is a wonderful piece of safety equipment, but using it reduces your ability to maintain situational awareness. Using one openly also makes you vulnerable to robbery and mugging. Take the time to coordinate your plans and answer any questions you or your group might have before you go to the store. Leave the phone for true emergency use. Also consider the possibility that the phone will not work if the electric grid is down.
Divide and Conquer
If you have more than two adults available to do the last run, consider splitting up your list or going to two (or more) locations. In my own family, we have four adults. We also have multiple locations that sell entirely different items. For example, the grocery store and pharmacy are at one end of town, and the Farmers’ Co-op is at the other end. Because of the number and variety of animals that we need to feed, we have found no practical way to stockpile enough food, salt, and other supplies for them for more than a few weeks at a time. Even if we did have the storage space, large amounts of animal feed attract rats and go rancid (or degrade nutritionally) over time. A last run to the Farmers’ Co-op is, to me, crucial, and since I am the livestock manager of our group I would handle this trip myself.
The grocery trips can be handed off to any of the other members of the group. Because we periodically review our supplies, each member is familiar with what we have on hand and what we normally buy. While a prepared list is ideal, I feel comfortable knowing that any one of our family members can go into any store and buy items that make sense. I am also sure that if the situation warrants, each member of my group knows to skip a store that’s too crowded or otherwise dangerous and go to another, change the purchasing plan and shop for entirely different items, or just come home empty-handed or otherwise.
Final Thoughts
I believe that, in most cases, the benefits of a well-planned last run can offset the inherent risks involved if the shopper is wary, focused, and not over-confident. If you are the type that thinks you can outlick, outdraw, and outshoot any cuss that crosses your path, do everyone a favor and stay home. You’re just going to get someone hurt or killed.
I’ve successfully made a last run more than once but never during major lawlessness in my community. War, terrorism, mob violence, gang fighting, or rioting of any kind is not a safe environment for shopping. I won’t risk it, and I don’t want to suggest that you should, either. A loaf of bread and a bottle of aspirin do not warrant losing your life or the lives of your loved ones.
Be smart. Stay safe, and keep prepping.
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Letter Re: Bug Out Boats (Inflatables) and Folding Bikes
Dear Editor,
I notice you have been running a lot of comments regarding Bug Out Boats. Overlooked in the discussions is any mention of small inflatables. If a person has a folding bicycle and a small inflatable, they have an option of being able to travel by land or water very quietly. If you do some research, it is very possible to find a small freshwater river or lake that has a small island or inaccessible shore line that can be used as a place to stay in case of widespread civil unrest. If a person went to the area ahead of time and left a cache of food and supplies and did not make themselves too noticeable, they might be able to hide out even in relatively densely populated areas.
I like the ability to be able to carry a boat on a bike. One of my favorite movies has always been The Great Escape. In the movie, the only three people who make their escape is one by bicycle and two by a rowboat. Why not combine the two? There are several lightweight pack rafts on the market and many folding bikes to chose from. I recommend the full size, 26-inch folding bikes for traveling long distances; you can get them used on Craigslist for $200. Lightweight pack rafts are available too but are quite expensive. On the other hand, you can get inexpensive Intex inflatables for under $80 on amazon, and if you add a folding floorboard you will be able to add a sail or attach motor mounts or rowing gear. Rafts paddle poorly. If your island or shore is not nearby in calm winds or water, it will be hard to paddle to your destination. You will need to take advantage of winds and current or improvise a way to row or sail. Bugging out with a folding bike and raft will not be suitable for all people and all locations, but it is a wonderful option to have up your sleeve, and if a suitable location exists in your area it may be a way to bug out inexpensively and discreetly.
If you want to see how easy it is to add a folding wood floorboard to an inexpensive inflatable to increase its usefulness, here is a video on the subject. There are also videos on adding sails to rafts. – R.M.
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Economics and Investing:
World Going into Nasty Depression-Hugo Salinas Price – B.B.
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Hard times if you’re a business owner (or an employee) and part of your business relies on the State of Illinois. State of IL is $10B past due paying vendors – P.S.
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Items from Professor Preponomics:
US News
How Free Electricity Helped Dig $9B Hole in Puerto Rico (New York Times) Excerpt: “Now, however, the island’s government is running out of cash, facing a total debt of $72 billion and already defaulting on some bonds — and an effort is underway to limit the free electricity, which is estimated to cost the power authority hundreds of millions of dollars.”
Moody’s: Junk Bond Stress is Spreading Beyond Energy (Market Watch) Excerpt: “A measure of stress in the high-yield, or “junk-bond” sector, hit a six-year high in January, and is starting to spread beyond the energy sector….”
International News
Germany Considers $5,450 Limit (5,000 Euros) on Cash Transactions (New York Times) Please do not misread what I am about to say. Terrorism is a terrible threat, much greater in my view than is understood by most people and many governments. However, it is my view that the press for digital currency is far less related to terrorism than it is to an attempt to manage severe systemic risk to economies around the world. Excerpt: “Germans tend to use cash more than many other Europeans. Opposition Green Party lawmaker Konstantin von Notz tweeted that trying to limit cash payments “is a new fundamental attack on data protection and privacy.”
The Rot in China’s Banking System is Surging: $1.8T in Shadow Loans (Contra Corner) Folks, does this sound at all familiar? Excerpt: “Mid-tier Chinese banks are increasingly using complex instruments to make new loans and restructure existing loans that are then shown as low-risk investments on their balance sheets, masking the scale and risks of their lending to China’s slowing economy.”
Will China Rescue Venezuela? (Forbes) Excerpt: “Venezuela is expected to be the first nation to default on its dollar-denominated debt this year. But not if China can help it.”
Welcome to AUSTERITY Saudi Arabia: Crashing Oil Prices Sends Economy Into Meltdown (Express) Excerpt: “SAUDI Arabia faces financial ruin if it fails to undergo severe austerity measures in the coming years, as the oil price crash continues to rage, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).”
Personal Economics and Household Finance
This Facebook Meme is Actually a Scam that Could Steal Your Info (Clark Howard) I find it strange that so many people play mindless games on social media sites and all too many for hours on end. This one comes with the potential cost of identity theft and financial loss. Don’t fall for this. Excerpt: “Those fun apps and games on Facebook may look innocent enough, but did you know that many of them can take over your Facebook profile and even gain access to your computer and sensitive financial data?”
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SurvivalBlog and its editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for details.
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Odds ‘n Sods:
How do you tell a satellite from a nuclear device? Expert: North Korea prepping EMP attack on U.S. – W.C.
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Another example of why gun control is already irrelevant… Home-made 3D printed 9mm gun – P.S.
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“They Rape, Kill, Destroy”: Montanans Stage “Security Rally” To “Head Off” Refugee “Invasion”
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If you need a reason to help you understand why the cities are not an ideal place to be in the coming crash, look no further: THE MAP: ‘Sanctuary Cities’ cross the 300 mark with Dallas, Philly – Submitted by B.B.
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The American Spectator has an excellent review of Gun Control in the Third Reich: Disarming the Jews and “Enemies of the State”. We all need a reminder now and then of the importance of the Second Amendment. You know, it’s the one that makes all the other amendments possible. – J.H.
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Hugh’s Quote of the Day:
“The liberties of a people never were, nor ever will be, secure, when the transactions of their rulers may be concealed from them.” – Patrick Henry
Notes for Wednesday – February 03, 2016
Mayflower Trading Company (one of SurvivalBlog’s contest sponsors) is having a food sale going on through the end of the month. If you’ve delayed prepping, now is the time. They have 2,000 calorie/day 1-year food packages starting at $499.99 as well “just add water” meals and “no prep required” food bars when you’re on the go. If it’s edible, it’s on sale.
o o o
Today, we present another entry for Round 63 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:
First Prize:
- A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
- A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
- A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
- DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chrome-lined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
- Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul PMAG 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
- Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
- The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
- A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
- KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304, and
- Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).
Second Prize:
- A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
- A FloJak EarthStraw Code Red 100-foot well pump system (a $500 value), courtesy of FloJak.com,
- A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
- A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
- A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
- A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
- A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
- RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
- Safecastle is providing a package of 10 LifeStraws (a $200 value)
Third Prize:
- A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
- A $245 gift certificate from custom knife-maker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
- A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
- Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
- Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
- Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
- Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
- Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
Round 63 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
Making a “Last Run” When the SHTF- Part 3, by GMJ
In Part 2 of this series, we discussed collecting information about the stores and products that might be available to buy as the disaster unfolds. In Part 3, we practice using our plan before the crisis occurs.
Make a Trial Run Before Your Last Run
I know this sounds counter-intuitive in the face of TEOTWAWKI, but if you have time, it’s always better to do a test run of something that has the potential to fail or be physically dangerous. If you have the opportunity to go out and observe what actually happens during a crisis event before one can negatively affect you, you will be surprised at how much you can learn.
Last winter, with a major snowstorm on the immediate horizon (and actually starting to come down), I took what was, for me, an unprecedented step. My family has been active preppers for more than 10 years and could certainly get through something so ordinary as a snowstorm. “Snowmageddon”, a monster storm that hit the east coast several years ago, hardly registered on our radar, even though it dumped more than four feet of snow on our farm and obliterated power for a large part of the nation’s capitol area. Despite knowing that we were in really good shape to literally “weather the storm,” I was curious to see how my smallish, semi-rural county would react.
I was surprised, to say the least.
As the storm began, I drove to the major shopping areas within a reasonable distance from my home. My four-wheel drive Suburban was certainly roadworthy, so I wasn’t concerned that I would get stuck in a half-inch of snow. However, there’s a fair number of urban transplants in our area, and everybody knows that “city folk” go absolutely nuts when it starts snowing. Their lack of driving skill is far more dangerous than any weather event could be. Still, I figured the benefits of gathering useful information far outweighed the potential risks.
At this point, there were very few people driving, and almost all of them, bless their li’l country hearts, were in 4WD pickups, Suburbans, or SUVs. Many of them, it turns out, were dropping first responders and medical personnel off at the regional hospital. The sheriff had put out a call for 4WD owners to help out, and help out they did.
Apparently, most people who shop at the mid-priced grocery stores (we have no “affluent” yuppy-type stores in the town) had heeded the weather warnings and had already completed their shopping. Only an intrepid few were in the parking lot, topping off their beer and chips. I went inside several of the stores and found them completely stocked with just about everything and prepared to stay open until the power failed. The larger stores also had extensive backup systems to keep their refrigerators and freezers operational. They were in for the long haul. This was mid-afternoon in some stores, so I asked the managers how much traffic they had had all day. The answer was “not much” to “about normal”. I knew then that my favorite chains would probably be in good shape for a few days if I needed them to be.
(I did buy more bread, milk, orange juice, cookies, and toilet paper just because I could. Never let an opportunity go to waste.)
The Walmart was another story. There were many more cars in the lot and people rushing in and out with canned goods, bottled water, even expensive snacks, frozen foods, and goodies. Almost no one had anything that I would have thought to buy, staples like rice, beans, flour, salt, seeds, spices, soap, OTC pharmaceuticals, et cetera, that would be necessary if the snowstorm or electrical outages lasted for a prolonged time. While some people obviously knew that there might be trouble ahead for them and their families, many acted like they thought that the snowstorm was just some huge party waiting to happen.
On an earlier trip, I talked to the Walmart manager about stocking emergency supplies and was pleased to see a few weeks later that they had put together major displays of supply “packages” with the typical emergency household items, like matches, radios, space blankets, hand warmers, and candles. They also regularly stock Meals Ready to Eat (MREs) and brought in multi-day emergency buckets of food. Most of these sold out very quickly and, by the time the storm actually arrived, they were long gone.
Across the road from Walmart, the Lowe’s was awash with people still trying to find emergency supplies (candles, flashlights, batteries, and generators). Those items were also sold out, and the expressions on the peoples’ faces as they exited the store were tragic. If they had thought to go to a smaller store with less competition for scarce supplies, they might have fared better. Expensive items like generators sold out immediately and were being resold in the parking lot for exorbitant prices. Even those disappeared quickly.
I did not risk going into either store. Perhaps the most important maxim of preppers everywhere is to keep away from crowds.
A Forecast For 2016 and Beyond: Will America’s Cascading Collapse Finally Unfold?
Through their Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and Quantitative Easing (QE), the Federal Reserve (“The Fed’) private banking cartel and the U.S. Treasury have conspired to rig the system. They have artificially suspended the boom-bust business cycle for the past seven years, but now, with interest rates finally rising, they’ve run out of their “smoke and mirrors” tricks. We’ve just had the appearance of an economic recovery, when no genuine structural recovery has actually occurred.
Just a tiny 25 Basis Points (0.25% ) rise in the Fed Funds Rate in December 2015 caused a near full-scale collapse of the stock market. The real chronically-depressed state of the global economy is starting to show.
So where does this leave us, as we enter the second month of 2016? There is a fairly well-founded saying on Wall Street: “As goes January, so goes the rest of the year.” If that holds true for 2016, then our economy is in a heap of trouble. Because America’s economic problems are foundational and systemic– that is, created by the mountains of new debt that have been accumulated (both public and private) rather than just the basic business cycle– the magnitude of the eventual collapse that will ensue is difficult to fully predict. However, some of what could unfold can be plainly seen. What are these “worst case” outcomes? In the event that The Fed fails to re-inflate their bubble and prop up the system a little while longer, we will probably experience some or all of the following:
- Another Global Credit Crisis
- Bank and Oil Sector Bailouts
- Further Deep Stock Market Indices Declines
- Housing Market Collapse
- Bank Runs and Bank Holidays
- A Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)
- A Derivatives Implosion
- Digital Dollar Replacement (with recall of all circulating paper currency and coinage)
- Bank Bail-Ins on the Holdings of Individual Depositors
- Deflation, then Transitioning to Mass Inflation
- World War 3
Rather than spell all of these out in detail (since most of them have already been described many times in SurvivalBlog), I suggest that you take the time to do a little research. Start by pasting each of the preceding bullet items into SurvivalBlog’s right hand column search box. Then corroborate what has been presented in SurvivalBlog with some outside web searches. (Don’t just take my word for it. Do the research. Then you can proceed to the stage that Idaho humorist writer Patrick McManus refers to as “Modified Stationary Panic.”)
Contingency Plans and Threat Mitigation
If you want to avoid the panic stage, then take some proactive steps to mitigate the threats posed by the aforementioned economic instability. In essence, you will need to insulate and isolate your family from these manifold threats through:
- Getting right with God and Praying Hard.
- Developing a Deep Larder approach to food storage.
- Becoming self-sufficient through large-scale gardening and raising livestock.
- Relocatingto a lightly-populated food exporting farming region that is well-removed from urban centers,
- Arming yourself with modern guns and night vision gear.
- Stocking up on compact, durable, and divisible barter goods, barterable base metals (such as Nickel coins), and small denomination silver coins.
- Safely storing fuels for transportation, heating, and cooking.
- Learning and regularly practicing self-sufficiency skills.
- Building (or converting) your home for self-sufficient heating with a wood stove or coal stove.
- Coordinating security with your neighbors (and acquiring and practicing with the requisite communications gear).
- Setting up an alternative power system. (At least buy a compact photovoltaic power system that will allow you to recharge night vision and handie-talkie batteries. Those are crucial!)
- Assembling a hard copy and electronic library of key survival and self-sufficiency references.
- Staying politically active, so that you can help push our government back to within its originally-intended Constitutional constraints of fiscal moderation and solvency.
- Getting in shape physically and staying in shape.
- Developing one or more depression-proof home-based businesses, to provide a second income stream.
After witnessing January’s stock market chaos, it now appears that time is short. So set your priorities and get started. The time for dawdling has long passed. – JWR
(Note: Permission is granted for re-posting of this entire article but only if done so in full, with proper attribution to James Wesley, Rawles and SurvivalBlog, and only if the included links are preserved.)
Letter Re: Bug Out Boats
Hugh,
I lived aboard my 37′ sailboat for 10 1/2 years. The quick answer is bugging out by boat is only a good option if you are just using it to get to a safe, land-based location. The two biggest problems are the limited amount of supplies that you can carry and you have to come back to land at some point in time.
To the unknowledgeable lander, catamarans seem like a great idea. To be able to be offshore for any length of time, you need a boat that can safely carry lots of stuff. Stuff is heavy. Catamarans have the least load carrying capacity of any type of boat. Full displacement boats have the most load carrying capacity. Semi displacement and planning boats fall in between. Another problem with catamarans is ultimate stability. Catamarans are very stable up to a point. Once you pass that point, they turn turtle and are more stable upside down then right side up. There are a lot of other issues with catamarans that I won’t go into as a bug out option. Don’t get me wrong; I like catamarans, especially power catamarans. They have their place in the world. It’s a “different horses for different courses” issue. Think of the catamaran as a thoroughbred. Think of your bug out vessel as a Clydesdale or oxen. Which would you rather have to carry all your stuff when you need to bug out?
My 37′ sailboat has about the same amount of usable room as a 25′ RV or travel trailer. If you are serious about using a boat to bug out, get an RV and live exclusively in that RV with all of your stuff in the RV, no cheating by storing stuff outside or using outside power. Periodically jack up one side of the RV to a 15 or 20 degree angle and now live in the RV.
It’s expensive, I mean really expensive. Just add the word boat to any product and the cost will double or triple. Just keeping and maintaining a boat is expensive. The smallest of pocket cruisers will cost $500 to $600 per month to moor, maintain, insure, property taxes, et cetera. A more usable size in the 30′ to 35′ range will cost around a $1,000 per month. What other preps could this money be better spent on? And you have to come back to land at some point in time. Now you are a sitting duck. The bad guys don’t even have to have a boat. They can just pick you off at their leisure as you row into shore in your dinghy.
And the issues just go on and on. Bugging out by boat could work for a limited number of people with a unique situation. Lastly, don’t forget to get the Admiral’s approval and keep the Admiral a happy sailor. If you can’t figure out who the Admiral is well good luck. Fair seas and calm winds. – L.C.
Economics and Investing:
The Fed Wants to Test How Banks Would Handle Negative Rates
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Items from Mr. Econocobas:
Oilpocalypse Wow! Stocks, Bond Yields Plunge As Bank Risk Soars
Negative Interest Rates Already In Fed’s Official Scenario – This is a little wordy….
BP to Cut 7,000 Jobs after Posting Huge Loss
Items from Professor Preponomics:
US News
National Debt Hits $19T (Washington Examiner) Excerpt: “Under current law, the debt ceiling is suspended until March, 2017, meaning the government can borrow without limit until then. Obama is expected to leave office with a total national debt of nearly $20 trillion by the time he leaves office.”
Dallas Fed Responds to Zero Hedge FOIA Request (Zero Hedge) What is the real exposure of U.S. banks to the oil and gas industry? This story continues to unfold. Zero Hedge stands by its reporting and is not letting go, and they’re asking incisive questions. Excerpt: “Two weeks ago, Zero Hedge reported an exclusive story corroborated by at least two independent sources, in which we informed our readers that members of the Dallas Federal Reserve had met with bank lenders with distressed loan exposure to the US oil and gas sector…” Warning: The commentary for this article may contain bad language or inappropriate avatar images.
International News
Time Running Out for China on Capital Flight, Warns Bank Chief (The Telegraph) Excerpt: “A big drop in the yuan would send a deflationary shockwave through a fragile world economy already on the cusp of a debt-deflation trap, and do so at a time when the eurozone and Japan are actively driving down their currencies. It would risk a pan-Asian currency storm along the lines of 1998, but on a much bigger scale.”
Oil Falls on China Data and Fading Prospects of OPEC Action (Reuters) Excerpt: “Oil fell nearly four percent on Monday as weak economic data from China, the world’s largest energy consumer, weighed on prices and an OPEC source played down talk of an emergency meeting to stem the decline.”
Plunge in South Korea’s Exports Rings Alarm Bells (Market Watch) Excerpt: “South Korean data are viewed as a proxy for the global trade picture because of the Asian nation’s heavy dependence on imports of raw materials and exports of goods such as cars and phones. The Korean data also give a reading of the health of the Chinese economy because around a quarter of South Korea’s exports are sent to China.”
Negative Interest Rates Arrive in Japan (The Economist) Excerpt: “HARUHIKO KURODA, the governor of the Bank of Japan, surprised his audience at the World Economic Forum’s recent gathering in Davos, Switzerland, when he called upon China to impose tighter capital controls to stabilise its currency—a breach of central-banking orthodoxy. Upon his return to Japan he swiftly unleashed yet another unorthodox measure….”
Nigeria Seeking $3.5B in Emergency Loans (Market Watch) Excerpt: “Nigeria’s government is expected to seek loans worth $3.5 billion from the World Bank and the African Development Bank as it tries to finance a budget gap worsened by a collapse in oil prices….”
Personal Economics and Household Finance
9 Powerful Questions That Will Change Your Financial Life (Lifehack) Excerpt: “You’ve probably heard it said that to get to the “right” information, you have to ask the correct question. Makes sense, but when it comes to money, what exactly are the questions?”
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SurvivalBlog and its editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for details.
JWR’s Recommendations of the Week:
Books
The Prepper’s Blueprint: The Step-By-Step Guide To Help You Through Any Disaster, by Tess Pennington
100 Deadly Skills: The SEAL Operative’s Guide to Eluding Pursuers, Evading Capture, and Surviving Any Dangerous Situation, by Clint Emerson
How to Stay Alive in the Woods: A Complete Guide to Food, Shelter and Self-Preservation Anywhere, by Bradford Angier
Bushcraft 101: A Field Guide to the Art of Wilderness Survival, by Dave Canterbury
The Stout-Hearted Seven: Orphaned on the Oregon Trail, by Neta Lohnes Frazier
Light Infantry Tactics: For Small Teams, by Christopher E. Larsen
Odds ‘n Sods:
Here is some sage advice, over at Commander Zero’s blog: Magazine Speculating.
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Yet one more reason to get your kids out of public schools! School Bans Marine Father Protesting Islamic Indoctrination
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SurvivalBlog reader H.L. sent in this article on 23 Must-Have Kitchen Items For Any Survivalist Or Prepper. Advice well worth heeding.
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Ol’ Remus is at it again over at the Woodpile Report. An excellent list of reading material. – B.B.
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Do you use a fitness tracker? You might want to read this: Some fitness trackers vulnerable to monitoring, U of T study finds – D.S.
Hugh’s Quote of the Day:
“Enlightened statesmen will not always be at the helm.” – James Madison