Letter Re: Making a Final Run

Dear Hugh,

In regards to the final run concept, I have to add my contrarian view and say, don’t do it! I have witnessed first hand the competitive spirit of people at a Walmart prior to a weakened hurricane making landfall. It made Black Friday look calm. Any perceived event that would be seen as significant enough for the general population to panic and flock to stores will be extremely dangerous. Why risk physical danger to the “runner”, damage to that person’s vehicle, exposure to any illness being carried by members of the general population, (which could be the reason for the panic in the first place), the risk of gangs drawn to such areas full of easy prey, the risk of being detained by police as order breaks down, the risk of not being able to get home or to one’s bugout location due to road closures by county, state, or federal officials, or how about something as simple as maintenance issues. The last runner will likely be a well-trained leader of a group or family. Can you afford to lose that person? Do you have task lists prepared, understood, and trained on by the next man or woman who will replace this individual when they cannot get back? No, I think those first few hours are more important getting people focused on the initial tasks that will need to be accomplished by a group or family. Get your preps squared away now. Plan what your group needs to accomplish in the first hours of an event. You might use Army Field Manuals that contain checklists concerning occupation of the defense to build custom checklists that can be used for training, refinement, and execution. The first hours of the event that triggers your group or family to execute your occupation plan will be stressful. It will be made more stressful by the absence or delayed arrival of a key leader going shopping. Skip it, make due, prep ahead, get your plan in motion. – An old paratrooper



Economics and Investing:

Fingerprints for Food: Venezuela Rolls Out New Plan to Keep Shelves Stocked. “…critics warn that the scheme — which is not mandatory for the moment — will be one more way for the state to keep tabs on the population, or might be a precursor to rationing.” Submitted by T.A.

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‘Look out, we are heading for a crash again’, warns William White, the central banker who predicted 2008 crisis – G.G.

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Items from Professor Preponomics:

US News

Food Stamp Beneficiaries Exceed 45M for 55 Straight Months (Washington Free Beacon) Excerpt: “The USDA has been tracking data on participation in the program since 1969, when average participation stood at about 2,800,000. Since then, participation in the program has increased by over 1,500 percent, while the country’s population has increased by roughly 60 percent.”

Lawmakers Warn Up to 30 Corporations Might Flee US Taxes (Washington Examiner) Excerpt: “Republicans’ top tax-writer in the House of Representatives warned Friday morning that the rush of companies moving their headquarters out of the U.S. for tax purposes might surge in 2016, suggesting that up to 30 could leave.”

Importing Lower Wages as 75% of Silicon Valley’s Tech Workers are Foreign Born: How Tech Manipulates the H1-B Visa Program for Cheap Labor (My Budget 360) Excerpt: “There is a massive demand for H-1B visas around the United States but in particular in Silicon Valley. Among the total working population, 45 percent of workers are foreign born, but in tech, the numbers are skewed with 75 percent being foreign born and many are here on H-1B visas earning a much lower wage than their American counterparts.”

People Over 50 Carrying More Debt Than In The Past (Wall Street Journal) Excerpt: “Older Americans are burdened with unprecedented debt loads as more and more baby boomers enter what are meant to be their retirement years owing far more on their houses, cars and even college loans than previous generations.” Note: The Wall Street Journal requires sign-on and/or subscription for access to some content.

International News

Shops’ Electricity Rationed in Crisis-Hit Venezuela (Yahoo News) Excerpt: “Venezuelans are accustomed to severe shortages of cooking oil, diapers and other staple products. But those hoping to buy what they could find got a new unpleasant surprise this week. They found malls dark and shuttered under a government electricity rationing regime.”

Millions Face “Retirement Crisis” Over Pensions Tax Raid (The Telegraph) Excerpt: “… a decision to scrap higher rate tax relief on pension contributions would ‘penalise’ middle class savers even further and discourage them from putting aside sufficient money for their retirement.”

Personal Economics and Household Finance

50 Nifty Tricks for DIY Savings (This Old House) Excerpt: “Remember when the tightfistedness of relatives raised during the Depression was amusing? Our grandparents’ certificates of deposit and plastic couch protectors seemed downright quaint when our own home-equity and retirement portfolios were ballooning. Suddenly, though, the pot-roast-and-potatoes ethic doesn’t seem quite so kooky.”

Top 10 Money Saving DIYs of the Year (Keeper of the Home) Excerpt: “So how do you know what DIYs are worth it, and which ones aren’t? You listen to those who have been there, done that!”

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SurvivalBlog and its editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for details.



Odds ‘n Sods:

Anyone looking for a large, defensible property on the Cumberland Plateau in Tennessee should take look at this new listing on our SurvivalRealty spin-off site: Copeland Mountain. This 540 acre tract with numerous springs would be ideal to subdivide for a large group retreat community. The $1.75 million price tag might seem spendy, but if it were broken into 10 subdivided parcels of around 54 acres apiece, that works out to $175,000 per parcel. – JWR

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Submitted by SurvivalBlog reader T.A.: 2 people walking across Golden Gate Bridge hit by blow darts The blowgun, while being a quiet weapon, is also a close range weapon. One has to wonder if better situational awareness would have helped this situation.

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Pioneer Preppy has a very interesting perspective of what we might expect from our government, now that Antonin Scalia has passed away. – Avalanche Lily

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SurvivalBlog reader T.P. sent in the link to a very disturbing video. The amateur journalist has noticed that certain armed personnel in Oregon are wearing blue jeans and do not have insignia, though they claim to be “supporting” the Sheriff’s Department. Is the Sheriff bringing in FBI personnel? If these are private security contractors, this is very disturbing.

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It’s weird, it’s sort of ugly, it makes thrumming noises, and you’ll want one. What do you get when you cross extreme tundra tires, an over-sized canopy bubble, and a Super-Cub? Thanks to SurvivalBlog reader T.P. for the link.



Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“Movement is not necessarily progress. More important than your obligation to follow your conscience, or at least prior to it, is your obligation to form your conscience correctly. Nobody — remember this — neither Hitler, nor Lenin, nor any despot you could name, ever came forward with a proposal that read, ‘Now, let’s create a really oppressive and evil society.’ Hitler said, ‘Let’s take the means necessary to restore our national pride and civic order.’ And Lenin said, ‘Let’s take the means necessary to assure a fair distribution of the goods of the world.’

“In short, it is your responsibility, men and women of the class of 2010, not just to be zealous in the pursuit of your ideals, but to be sure that your ideals are the right ones. That is perhaps the hardest part of being a good human being: Good intentions are not enough. Being a good person begins with being a wise person. Then, when you follow your conscience, will you be headed in the right direction.”

—Excerpted from Justice Antonin Scalia’s commencement address at Langley High School, in Virginia, where his granddaughter was graduating in June of 2010.



Notes for Sunday – February 14, 2016

Today, we present another entry for Round 63 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chrome-lined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul PMAG 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
  6. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  7. The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
  8. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  9. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304, and
  10. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second Prize:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
  3. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  4. A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
  5. A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
  6. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  7. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
  8. Safecastle is providing a package of 10 LifeStraws (a $200 value)

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A $245 gift certificate from custom knife-maker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
  3. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  4. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  5. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
  8. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 63 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Keeping Battery Devices Running In An Austere Environment, by Snaketzu

We all have at least a handful of battery-powered devices that can be very handy in an emergency or even a TEOTWAWKI situation. Weapon sights, flashlights, GPS, handheld radio, a tablet loaded with books and PDFs, night vision gear, and possibly even a cell phone are all things that could be very useful. Although everyone must be prepared to do without these devices, depending on the scenario there is no good reason to believe that these items must be discarded after the initial battery charge fails. Counting on scrounging more batteries or a power source to charge with is a recipe for failure. Luckily, the solution is neither difficult nor expensive.

First off, you must be discerning about equipment if you want to keep it working. Items that use exotic batteries that aren’t rechargeable are out. Basically, you should stick to AA or AAA batteries and also devices that use internal batteries that can be charged via USB. There are rechargeable CR123 batteries out there, but just how important is that high lumen flashlight? You can get close to the same performance with a AAA battery-powered light without adding an additional battery to your supply chain and another charger to keep them going. Likewise, there are many quality options available for weapon sights and NVG that use AAA and AA batteries. The gear that uses coin type batteries is simply not sustainable.

Second, how will you keep your batteries charged in an austere environment? A plug in or 12V wall charger is great for Plan A at the retreat, but what about Plans B and C? Your handheld devices will be even more critical if you have to leave the retreat either temporarily or permanently. Solar energy is free and abundant, but a truly portable solar charging system takes some careful thought and selective purchases.

Luckily, packable solar panels and lightweight charging equipment have coalesced around the USB standard. USB has transformed charging the batteries in small personal electronics. As long as you have a cable that fits your device and has a USB A connector on the other end for connection to a variety of power sources, you can charge your device. Something that most people don’t know, however, is that not all USB chargers are created equally. Some will only charge 2.5 watts, some will charge 5 watts, and some will charge 10 watts, and the higher the output, the faster (most) things charge. In the interest of making the best use of available sunlight and time, for a portable charging system it is obviously best to avoid any bottlenecks and stick with equipment that can and will work at the faster 10 watt level. USB works at 5 volts and the faster charging systems are rated at 2100 mA (milliamps) or 2.1 amps. The best way to tell if you are looking at equipment capable of fast USB charging is to look into the specs and see what the max output rating is. It should show a max output of 2.1 amps for one port or 3+ amps for two ports . (Dual port 4.2 amp chargers are wonderful but hard to find.)

Third, there is a variety of other equipment that can be very handy for opportunistic use of available power to do some charging. These various adapters could aid in scrounging power from generator-powered systems, vehicles during driving, or even automotive batteries from abandoned vehicles. While not absolutely necessary, such items add a lot of utility for a small trade-off in space and weight.

Specific, Basic Equipment Needs

Batteries: Panasonic Eneloops are widely regarded as the best rechargeables out there. This is not the time to stick with your favorite alkaline brand; apparently Energizer and Duracell don’t want to create too much competition for their throwaways. The standard gen4 Eneloops are the ones for most applications. They are rated for 2100 discharge cycles (that’s once a day for nearly six years), 2100 maH, and will hold 90% of charge at six months and 70% at five years, assuming a relatively stable storage temperature. Don’t be tempted by the more expensive Eneloop Pros; they have a higher 2550 maH capacity and higher charge retention but are only rated for 500 discharge cycles.

Solar Power: There is a pretty good selection of packable folding solar panels for personal charging on the market, and the prices have come down into the range of downright reasonable. GoalZero is of course a well known but expensive brand, and RAVPower, Anker, and Suaoki all have highly rated products. Most reviews of USB charging with solar panels use 15w panels, but a 20W panel is better. The reason is simple:  you can’t count on ideal conditions. My real world testing indicates it’s still not a sure thing to get 10W output (2 amps @5V) from even a 20W panel. For fast charging, you need your panel to maintain that full 5 volt 2.1 amp output as much as possible. Theoretically, a 20w panel can run two such charging circuits, so you’ll have a lot of headroom to account for cloudy conditions and/or less than ideal placement. The difference is a couple of inches in width, about 4 ounces, and around $10. It’s worth it.

Portable Battery Bank: Most solar systems are set up to charge a battery bank, which is used as both storage and a buffer. I think it’s very smart to stay with that plan for a miniature system. There are literally tons of small lithium ion power banks out there on the market that are designed to be charged via USB and then allow you to charge your cell phone on the go. As long as they have the right specs, they are ideal for our purposes. The one you choose needs to be rated at a full 5 volts and 2.1 amps output for fast charging. If it doesn’t have this, then your storage battery will become a bottleneck in your charging system. I also recommend at least 10000 maH capacity. I found a Limefuel brand battery with the proper specs, 15000 maH capacity, and a rough service casing with IP66 dust and water resistance rating. I advise avoiding gimmicks like built-in solar panels or hand cranks. It’s best to buy each component separately, buying a quality piece of gear at each stage. Combining functions inevitably leads to making compromises somewhere.

Battery Charger: I only found two good candidates for recharging AA or AAA via USB, although I expect more “smart” chargers will be hitting the market. One of them apparently has a reputation for being very picky about the input voltage, so that made the choice easier. I chose the PortaPow Intelligent USB charger. Intelligent means that it can recharge one to four batteries of any combination of AA or AAA simultaneously because it truly monitors each battery separately. This is an important distinction and a nice feature, because there are a lot of chargers out there that require you to charge batteries in pairs, which is downright inconvenient when you have a flashlight that takes three AAAs.

Additional, Very Handy Gear

  • A plug-in USB diagnostic meter– You can plug these into a USB socket and then plug your device into the back end of the meter and see real time voltage and amperage. This is handy for diagnosing problems, aiming the solar panel, and aso checking overall system performance. At around $10 and the size of a thumb drive there’s no reason not to have one.
  • Extra 3′ micro USB cables – 6′ cables should be avoided, except for bedside chargers. The extra length requires a cable of exceptional quality to maintain the full voltage at the load end. It’s best to stick with shorter cables for high performance charging.
  • An extra dual port USB high performance wall charger – You never know when you might have access to a standard receptacle and you want to be able to make the most of the opportunity, if it happens. The way to tell if you have a charger that can go full speed on both ports is to look at the amperage rating. If it has two ports, it needs a 4.2 amp rating so it can hit 2.1 amps on both ports at the same time. Most dual port USB chargers are only rated around 2 or 3 amps, so beware!
  • An extra dual port 12v receptacle USB charger – The same things I said about the wall charger apply. You never know when you might be in a moving vehicle. If you are, charge something!
  • There are a lot of DC stepdown modules floating around on the Internet that allow you to hook up to a 12V battery and give you a USB output. The better ones have a pretty wide voltage input range (8-22V) and a female USB receptacle; there are even some with a male mini USB output that are autoranging 12/24/36/48V and work down to 8 volts. These are very inexpensive and can be used with  battery clips to scavenge charge off of batteries in abandoned cars.
  • There are even hand crank power sources. They aren’t terribly expensive and don’t take up much space, so if you are trapped in shelter by the weather you can at least put some charge back in your battery bank, even if solar isn’t available.
  • There is a USB charging cable out there for the popular Baofeng UV-5R radio (and variants). This allows charging of the factory LiOn battery instead of using an insert with AAs or AAAs.

Finally, discussion of maintaining use of electronic equipment in a TEOTWAWKI scenario will inevitably run into discussion of EMP or solar storms. While I agree that a handheld GPS is likely to be useless after an EMP or SS event, there’s no reason why your charging kit and other devices can’t be stored such that they are protected. Everything I’ve discussed here fits easily into a .50 caliber ammo can, along with a backup tablet, LED flashlights, and other goodies. Placing everything in quality antistatic shielding bags and then wrapping in aluminum foil before storage in the ammo can should give >50db shielding across the entire frequency range.

Depending on your needs, a portable solar charging kit is probably not appropriate for a tactical loadout or even a bugout bag. When speed and weight are at a premium it is likely better to just pack some extra batteries. However, a portable charging system can easily be included in a secondary cache for potential long term or “plan B” use. It’s an easy preparation to make that could return big dividends.



Letter Re: Making a Last Run

Thank you so much for what you’re doing here. I don’t understand people who say they want to prep but won’t put this website on their daily reading list.

In reference to Making a Last Run, at first I was appalled that any prepper would go to the store to stock up on even more food at the last minute. At the time I thought, “Why take away from those who didn’t prepare in advance? Let them get what they can. We already have enough.”

Then I read the letter stating that with a 10-year larder it wasn’t necessary for them to make a last run, and I wondered how do you rotate 10 years worth of canned fruit or beans? I have trouble with just my one year (or so) since we quit eating canned or packaged foods. This letter also lead me to thinking about our kids.

Today as I was preparing to go to the store, I realized two valid reasons to make a last run. First, I noticed I was down on items (of course, it’s been four months since I went), but I also saw cans of food that we don’t often eat getting near their expiration date (or past…sigh). So if a disaster occurred today, I wouldn’t be as prepared as I would like. Perhaps that’s a good enough reason to make a last run. (Although there is a big part of me that still says, “You already have lots, don’t take food away from those who have so much less.”)

Secondly, I believe there is another very justifiable reason to make that last run and that is if our out-of-state kids come because they won’t be able to bring massive amounts of food. We will pray they just get here safely. That leaves us to prepare for them, but how do I prepare for eight extra people and rotate food that we rarely eat ourselves because it’s outside our normal diet? I can’t rotate food enough for 10 people when there’s only two of us eating.

That’s where a last run would come in very, very handy.

A huge thank you to all the contributors. One never stops learning.

Blessings, SM



Economics and Investing:

Alternate Unemployment Charts 25percent sound good – B.B.

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The world can’t afford another financial crash – it could destroy capitalism as we know it – S.B.

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Items from Professor Preponomics:

US News

Four Horsemen of the Economic Apocalypse (Business Insider) Excerpt: “It’s getting impossible to ignore all the risks… We know how leveraged banks are… If they get in trouble, then that money is gone. People have been avoiding thinking about it.”

Yellen’s Dilemma: A Downturn with No Easy Response (Reuters) No right answer, and there’s no way out. In my opinion, there were going to be consequences whether Fed Chair Yellen raised rates or held them at or very near zero. Excerpt: “The U.S. Federal Reserve’s carefully scripted decision to raise interest rates last December, and begin a return to ‘normal’ policy, may now become a nightmare for the central bank if an economic downturn forces a return to unconventional methods.”

Something Very Disturbing Spotted in a Morgan Stanley Presentation (Zero Hedge) Excerpt: “With central bankers losing credibility left and right, and failing outright to boost the ‘wealth effect’ no matter what they throw at it, the next big question is when will central planners around the world unveil the cashless society which is a necessary and sufficient condition to a regime of global NIRP.” Warning: Commentary following the ZH article may contain bad language and/or inappropriate avatar images.

International News

The World Can’t Afford Another Financial Crash – It Could Destroy Capitalism as We Know It (The Telegraph) Excerpt: “It is always a sure sign that panic has broken out when financial markets respond badly to all possible scenarios. The prospect of higher interest rates? Sell, sell, sell. A chance of lower rates? Sell, sell and sell again. A rise in the price of oil is met with as much angst as a decline. The financial markets remain addicted to help from central banks: they are desperate for yet more interventions, regardless of the consequences on the pricing of risk, the allocation of resources or the creation of unsustainable bubbles that only enrich the owners of assets.”

Is the Sovereign Debt Crisis Coming Back to Haunt Europe? (The Telegraph) Excerpt: “It is only the ECB that is holding Europe together. If the ECB was to step back you would have a massive sovereign debt crisis.”

Will Italy Prompt a Global Financial Crisis (HuffPost Business) Excerpt: “The 2.5T Dollar Question: See from the US it looks as the same as Greece. There is however, a major difference: Italy’s public debt amounts to 2,470 billion dollars. The European Central Bank or the European institutions do not have the means to rescue Italy as they did for Greece that amounted to 350 billion. that means that it would be, at least a major banking and economic crisis in Europe. I do not believe it will limited to Europe. This Italian and European banking crisis will represent a multiple of the 2008 crisis. Is there a pilot in the plane?”

Greek Economy Returns to Recession After Shrinking in Fourth Quarter (Bloomberg) Excerpt: “The Country will face renewed euro-exit fears unless its government and European creditors come up with a credible plan to make the country’s debt sustainable….” Again, an opinion: there will be no resolution without substantial write-downs.

Personal Economics and Household Finance

Top 3 Tips for 50-Somethings to Avoid Identity Theft (BankRate) Watch those medical requests for your SSNs very, very carefully. Excerpt: “If you’re in your 50s, you probably have a well-established financial identity and you probably use more medical services than you did when you were younger. Those traits can make you a prime target of identity thieves.”

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SurvivalBlog and its editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for details.



Odds ‘n Sods:

The Columbus Gyro Restaurant Rampage “Random Attack”: A Somali man named Mohammed comes into a restaurant called “Nazareth” and asks about the religion and national origin of the owner. He is told that the owner is a Christian Arab emigre from Israel. So Mohammed comes back a half hour later with a machete and a murderous rage.

These two lines in the CBS news article come as no surprise:

“It remained unclear what sparked the attacks. ‘Right now there’s nothing that leads us to believe that this is anything but a random attack’ “

No motive? Random? A real puzzler. Anyone with a room temperature IQ could solve this one.

These typical dismissive statements are clearly intended to deflect television viewers from the real issues: A.) Radical Islam and B.) Loose U.S. immigration policy on military age male Islamists, without sufficient screening on radical ties, other than the DHS/TSA’s horribly flawed No Fly Watchlist. Don’t be duped by the “lamestream” media. I’ve said it before: We are living in the Age of Deception and Betrayal.- JWR

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US Army Develops Integral Dry Lubricant To Replace CLP – I find the term “permanent” a bit hard to swallow but a long-lasting dry lubricant would sure be welcome. – G.P.

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Canada – HMCS Fredericton Heads to Aegean Sea…Do You Know Where The Aegean Sea Is?The drumbeats of war are getting louder… – P.A.

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From the fine folks who brought you Round Up, Terminator Seeds, and other problems for your life: Zika HOAX exposed by South American doctors: Brain deformations caused by larvicide chemical linked to Monsanto; GM mosquitoes a ‘total failure’ – RBS

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From the desk of Mike Williamson, SurvivalBlog Editor At Large: Bolt on winch – I’d be leery of ongoing use damaging bearings, and even a hard single use breaking an axle. I believe this concept has been marketed before. It would probably be okay for occasional use on a passenger vehicle.



Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“And the disciples came and said to Him, “Why do You speak to them in parables?” Jesus answered them, “To you it has been granted to know the mysteries of the kingdom of heaven, but to them it has not been granted.” Matthew 13:10-11 (KJV)



Special Note

Saturday’s news flash on the death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia came as a shock. Given that the leftist U.S. Senate has a long history of “rubber stamp” confirmations of Supreme Court Justice nominees, this is an evil omen. The news of Scalia’s demise is troubling, even if Hitlery Clinton is not elected. The BHO Administration will undoubtedly nominate another ultra-liberal Statist, resulting in a tectonic shift in the composition of the court. (With a 5-to-4 Statist majority, the District of Columbia v. Heller decision would have gone the other way.) In essence, once Obama’s next Supreme Court nominee is seated, we can kiss the Bill of Rights goodbye.

Perhaps I should invest in large diameter PVC pipe and threaded end caps. (Given the likely shortage thereof in the near future, that would probably be a very lucrative investment.)

It is time to revisit your Plan B and Plan C preps, folks! At the very least, keep your passports valid. – JWR



Notes for Saturday – February 13, 2016

Today, February 13th, is the birthday of both Robert Charles R.C. Sproul, Jr.(born 1939), a well-respected American Calvinist theologian, and General Chuck Yeager (born, 1923), the first man to break the sound barrier.

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I recently received a sample of the new Columbia River Knife & Tool (CRKT) OC3 fixed-blade tactical knife, which was designed by SurvivalBlog’s Field Gear Editor, Pat Cascio, in cooperation with Brian Wagner. The overall length in nearly 11 inches, and it is constructed of SK5 steel that is black powder-coated. It has a practical drop point, yet it comes sharpened on BOTH edges, so it is practical both for utility and for fighting. (Consult your local and state laws on double-edged knives, before ordering!) The slotted grip is gray Micarta. The manufacturing is done in Taiwan. The fit and finish are superb, and the provided black reinforced hard nylon sheath comes with a MOLLE-compatible clip. These should be orderable soon. What a great knife! – JWR

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Today, we present another entry for Round 63 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chrome-lined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul PMAG 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
  6. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  7. The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
  8. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  9. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit and a Stainless Medium Scout Kelly Kettle Complete Kit with a combined retail value of $304, and
  10. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second Prize:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
  3. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  4. A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
  5. A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
  6. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  7. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
  8. Safecastle is providing a package of 10 LifeStraws (a $200 value)

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A $245 gift certificate from custom knife-maker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
  3. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  4. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  5. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
  8. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 63 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Low-Carb Paleo and Primal for Preppers, by T.Z.

I wouldn’t have much to eat in “What’s for Dinner”, so I’m going to write up my own personal paleo/primal low-carb approach to nutrition, especially as it applies to prepping.

The mountain men, hunters, and others rarely had sugar and flour and were healthier. I’m not as active as them, but I’m trying to eat like them.

Micro and Macro Nutrients– What Your Body Really Needs

The first thing to do is separate nutrients from calories. You need nutrients– vitamins, minerals, protein, and a few other things to keep things running. These, like oil and radiator fluid, are things you only need a little of, but they are vital. You also need calories in your fuel tank.

You need a daily supply of vitamins and minerals, the micro-nutrients. For those, when I’m not eating a wide variety of natural food, I have a multi-megavitamin, which has more than enough of my daily supply of all the vitamins and minerals. For example, I don’t have to worry about whether salt is iodized or not, as I get it from the supplement. You need to find vitamins and minerals that are easily absorbed by the body, and try to get mega-vitamins. (The USDA 100% requirement is the amount to keep you from death, e.g. scurvy, not the amount to insure your health.) You want to have 100% of what you need each day. Note that some vitamins and minerals are toxic at high doses, so be careful. I’m still looking for the ultimate combination. (My ideal would be to be 110% of the proper amount per 50 pounds of body weight so would be good for men, women, and children.) Feedback and suggestions are welcome, as are suppliers who might want to create such.

The only macronutrient you need is protein. That is in meats, eggs, and some dairy, so instead of worrying about calories, store up the high protein foods. I didn’t mention beans and nuts; many have a lot of protein but also tend to have more carbs, so I don’t do much, but they are also a good choice. You don’t need much, usually only a few ounces, but you do need it. You can get a 5-pound jar of whey protein for about $50. (That’s two to three months for one average person.) I get one unflavored, especially without any added sugar, but there are other kinds of powdered protein. Technically you also need nucleic acids, but you tend to get enough from eating almost anything. Here again, I’m still looking for the perfect protein powder, whey? soy? or something else?

I might only add some “Omega” oil supplements, if you aren’t going to have much fat around. Some lipids are needed, even when not for energy, and your body doesn’t make all of them.

Every nutrient you need for three months fits into a bugout bag with room left over. A small cabinet can contain a 3-year supply.

This makes one thing simple in a TEOTWAWKI situation. Just get one set of vitamins and one scoop of protein, and you don’t have to worry about nutrition. No worrying about meats vs. vegetables, but are you getting enough Vitamin A, C, or D, protein, iron, or iodine?

Now for Calories – “Good Calories, Bad Calories” – Fats vs. Carbohydrates (Carbs)

What follows is a bit oversimplified for a short article, but if you want to know more, read the authors, sites, videos, and links for comprehensive information.

When your body has glucose, it won’t burn your fat. Unless you have very little and burn all the glucose daily, you will store, not burn, fat. To burn both carbs and fat, you have to burn a lot of calories like an endurance athlete or our ancestors who had to use lots of muscle power instead of having air conditioned tractors, cars, and washing machines. However, there are endurance athletes who consume no carbs– nothing starchy or sugar-related, and they do fine, many do better.

The “What’s for Dinner” article said Americans consume 40 pounds of sugar yearly. However, most are seriously obese and borderline type 2 diabetic.

Fructose is sugar, but it’s not even a good supply of calories. Only the liver can process it, and you get fatty liver (cirrhosis writ small, not unlike consuming too much alcohol, which is another toxic carb). Obviously, “High Fructose Corn Syrup” is bad, but table sugar (sucrose) is half glucose and half fructose. See Dr. Lustig’s explanation.

Grains, and especially potatoes, are simple starches, which are merely stacked glucose molecules that turn into sugar in your stomach. Yes, you can get a sugar high from potatoes and an insulin spike and everything else, as if you drank a sugary soft drink. There are complex starches in beans and other foods like nuts, but it is easier to avoid all carbs, at least to start. Maltose (in beer) is two glucose molecules. Cellulose is indigestible plant fiber. I’ll leave galactose, lactose, and the other sugars for you to search.

Glucose is also a problem. Your liver can store it up as glycogen (animal starch), as can your muscles, but they can only store a little. Endurance athletes can store lots, but they will burn it all up and burn fat too. Most of us already have a full tank. What happens to the excess fuel? When your blood glucose levels go up, your pancreas (unless you are a type 1 diabetic) releases insulin. Insulin is the hormone that says to store the calories. If your liver and muscles are empty of glycogen, it can go there. Otherwise it changes to fat. Worse, if you also eat fat at the same time you have insulin going up, that fat too will be stored. You will get fat even if you consume no fat, just sugars and starches. Worse, having insulin telling your body to store instead of burn your blood glucose makes you feel weak and hungry, because you are starving inside. You aren’t burning what you’ve just eaten.

Your body (if you aren’t an endurance athlete) will refuse to burn fat until all the internal stores of glucose have been used up and it will resist. You will feel like you are starving, you will feel weak and tired, even if you are obese if your body isn’t set to burn fat. Your body is like a flex-fuel vehicle that slows down and conserves gas until that tank is empty, and only then will switch to diesel.

When you body has adapted to burn fat, it is called “ketosis”. It takes about two weeks of not eating carbs for your body to switch. Your body releases stored fat (or what you eat), your liver turns it into ketones, and your muscles (even your brain) burns them without any problem. You don’t feel hungry. Most people say they have lots of energy and think more clearly. They lose all the extra fat and keep it off as long as they avoid carbs. Most lose their addiction to sugar; they have no insulin spikes and no starvation. Eating fat releases Leptin– the “I’m full” hormone, so they stop eating when they’ve only had a little.

Most of the diet science was revived by Gary Taubes Good Calories, Bad Calories, and his follow-up Why We Get Fat, books available from Amazon, but there is a video with the basics.

I’m also not kidding when I call it “sugar addiction”. Your brain on sugar (other than the insulin shock) looks like your brain on heroin or nicotine, or alcohol. Even caffeine’s main effect is to cause your liver to release glucose into your bloodstream. Avoid booze, illegal drugs, tobacco, but eat 40 pounds of sugar each year?

The best general site I’ve found is http://dietdoctor.com, which has everything you need, including the science, the recipes, and tips. There is much free information, but full length lectures and movies are $10/month, free for the first month. Recent samples:

Large collection of links to academic papers on Sugar by Zoe Harcombe that has a slightly different approach– never eat carbs and fats in the same meal.

Saying you must eat potatoes, pasta, bread, or sweets is wrong. You don’t have to. You can eat anything else. You can eat any green (non-starch) vegetable, salads with dressing (read the label to see if they add sugar, HFCS is in everything), eggs any style, meats, and fish. I banished carbs from my house but always have a dish of hard boiled eggs and something like a variety of near-zero-carb cheeses and lunch meats. Coffee and tea are available but no sugar (and no honey!) I have a wide variety but am rarely hungry, usually only after a long time or a lot of activity. Once I had some surgery where I couldn’t eat anything solid for a week. I wasn’t hungry and I lost 10 pounds. I tend to eat out of habit daily, and I do need the nutrients from real food– real meat, milk, eggs, vegetables, and they bring a little fat with them so I’m not pencil thin, but I’m healthy. And I’m doing almost no exercise.

My Challenge

If you want to try, give up sugars and starches for Lent. Especially break your sugar addiction, if nothing else. To switch your body to burn fat, you need to eat no more than 20 grams of carbs every day. (Read the labels, ignore “effective carbs”, and just do total carbs.) See the DietDoctor.com website or find other books– paleo or primal are two diets, Atkins was the original. You just need to read the labels and count carbs, not calories. Then eat as much as you want and maybe a little more when starting to avoid your body thinking it is starving; eat an extra egg.

Between now and Lent, eat up all the carbs in your house (or if you have stores, put them far in the back somewhere) so that by “Fat Tuesday”, green vegetables, fat, and protein are the only things you can eat without going out, but make sure some are right at hand so you can grab them when hungry. And eat a bit more salt; bullion is one way. Look up “carb-flu” for why. It is important not to have the bad calories available. Why do they have candy in the checkouts? This is like pretending having a copy of Playboy on the table is okay because you know your male friends would never give into temptation. This is the “near” in “avoid the near occasion of sin”. For Passover, the feast of unleavened bread, all leaven is removed from the home.

For Lent, eat all the eggs, meats (except when it is a day of abstinence), fish, cottage cheese, green (non-starchy) vegetables you want. I’d be careful with dairy, as milk has lactose. Just count the carbs. Don’t cheat or admit that it isn’t a fair test if you have and fail.

You can use sweeteners, but it is better to lose your sweet cravings completely; sweeteners can by themselves raise insulin levels as your body is anticipating sugar. Still, if it will make the transition easier, do so.

If it works, and you are in ketosis, burning your stored and eaten fat, no longer have a sweet tooth, and you are thinking clearly, have energy, lost 20 pounds or more, you might want to continue. You can lose as much as you want and carry your calories with you, since your body is burning fat. Then determine if you want to store more or get thinner.

Final Notes and Miscellany

As always, especially if you have special medical conditions, check with your family physician, but remember he might have been trained in the old, wrong school that only counting calories matters.

Strictly speaking, storing highly processed food, like sugar and flour, is easy, and if in TEOTWAWKI you are going to be burning 5000+ calories a day, it might be a better option. They are less expensive. (There are pallets of the usual bags at my local grocery store), and even fungi and bacteria won’t eat them.

I don’t understand why it matters if pure sucrose (there is nothing but that in the bag) comes from GMO or non-GMO plants or if it could be produced in a chemical factory.

The Healthy Home Economist is another excellent resource but more toward natural and alternative foods, cooking, and health.

The only sugars I eat is a rare raw honeycomb from local farmers. It is rumored the pollen helps with allergies. It’s not 40 pounds per year but more like four ounces at most, and there’s almost zero fructose (just some low-sugar berries. Lustig notes the natural fiber slows the release), and little starch, mostly complex starches in vegetables, but no potatoes or grains (except for an occasional experiment with paleo-food like einkorn).

I haven’t mentioned storage. I have a Harvest Right Freeze Dryer. I don’t have to mess with canning or worry about botulism, and it is less work. I can open up a bag and start crunching, or I can soak it to restore the original texture with 97% of the nutrition. Canning is high effort to store, reduces nutrition, and you have to be careful to cool afterward. What is the total cost in time, effort, and money to preserve X nutrients using canning versus a Freeze Dryer? Though, you can do canning on a wood stove.

I’ve stored what I’ve been eating all along– meats, eggs, vegetables, yogurt, cottage cheese. I buy extra and freeze-dry it; there’s one for me and one for the cabinet. I store vegetables in the growing season and meats, eggs, et cetera in winter. Oils are another matter, since they need a different approach, and the one in “Whats for Dinner?” works. I prefer butter. I might not even need to dip into my multivitamin and protein powder, if I’m just continuing to eat what I usually do but from my stores. There are lots of natural calories when you know how to get them, but you can’t control the nutrients. If I suddenly go from under 1000 to 5000 calories per day, then I won’t have to worry about eating carbs, and there’s lots of carbs around where I live since that is what the more commercial farms produce here.

Since except for an occasional garden, I don’t grow enough, I’m into CSA – community supported agriculture, Natural meats, Free range hens (sometimes running through the yard), raw milk from grass-fed cows , heirloom seed vegetables, et cetera since I don’t think we were created to digest things which come from factories. Different states have different laws, but I’m surprised – Montana is restrictive and Wyoming next door has food freedom (ignore the headline) from the link: Summer 2015: Governor Matt Mead signed the Wyoming Food Freedom Act into law on March 3. The new law gives farms, ranches, and home kitchens the right to sell any foods they produce, other than meat products, direct to the consumer without any government regulation or inspection. Sales can take place at farms, ranches, private homes, farmers markets, and through delivery. The Food Freedom Act legalizes the sale of any raw dairy product, including unaged cheese. The sale of raw cheese that has not been aged at least 60 days is prohibited in interstate commerce, but states do have the option of not having any aging requirement in their laws. At this time, Wyoming has the most favorable laws on the sale of raw dairy products in the U.S. You might want to remember that if you want to have a farm in the Redoubt. There are still regulations for more commercial sales, but I buy most products at Farmer’s markets.

Mostly, I want to eat real food. Although I suggested natural but processed supplements at the start, that is for an extreme situation. I was blessed with good health and an iron constitution, but I still feel much better since I’ve reduced the supply line and even minimal processing from the plant or animal to my table, which isn’t possible even with big-box “organic” food. Sugar and flour are bad just on that basis. In the garden of Eden, only one tree was off limits. However, the rest were firmly planted in the ground. Post flood, animals were to be respected, even if eaten and not treated like some factory input. Even raw honey, real original fruit, grains, or even potatoes are different (to draw a parallel, how many own or want dachshunds, yorkies, or poodles instead of something that could easily be mistaken for a wolf?). I’m skeptical of some of the miracle claims but am even more skeptical that processed foods aren’t seriously lacking in nutritional value. Low carbs, paleo, primal (though I don’t believe in evolution) is the closest to the ideal.



Letter Re: Making the Last Run

Hugh,

One thing I didn’t notice in his post was learning your store layouts. Most stores are pretty much laid out the same way, but they do on occasion move things around. Notice where everything is and make sure you pay attention each time you visit your local grocery store. Bread and milk are not normally placed together, thus you have to go through the whole store to get both. Milk is usually at the back of the store or at least very near the back, so that you have to go all the way through to get a gallon. This helps insure that you will pick up something you really didn’t intend on buying before you leave the store and thus enhance their sales. How many of us go in for one thing and come out with a dozen? Making sure of your layout will not only speed up your run, especially if it is an emergency situation, but also will help to keep you from impulse buying as you wander around looking for the items you need.

C.P.



Economics and Investing:

Venezuela’s Collapse Brings ‘Savage Suffering’ – Submitted by P.S.

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Items from Mr. Econocobas:

Welcome To Obama’s Recovery: Carrier Moving 1400 Jobs To Mexico | Zero Hedge

Items from Professor Preponomics:

US News

How Negative Interest Rates Could Remake the Global Financial System (New York Times) Excerpt: “A decade ago, negative interest rates were a theoretical curiosity that economists would discuss almost as a parlor game. Two years ago, it began showing up as an unconventional step that a few small countries considered. Now, it is the stated policy of some of the most powerful global central banks….”

Negative Interest Rates Won’t Save Us, But Helicopter Money Might (Fortune) Really? While I don’t agree with the conclusion, this is an interesting article from the standpoint of perspective and does add to an understanding of what policymakers may be considering. Excerpt: “When the next recession hits, governments around the world will need to find the political will and the resources to engage in massive spending to drag their economies out of their demand-deficient comas.”

The Danger of Negative Interest Rates (CNBC) Should the U.S. pursue the policy of negative interest rates. It is my view that unintended consequences are likely and not well understood. Excerpt: “Standard textbook theories hold that negative interest rates are infeasible because depositors always have the outside option of holding onto cash, which is storable and therefore pays an effective interest rate of zero. Recent experience and some expanding research suggest that zero is in fact not a binding floor on interest rates.”

International News

Negative Interest Rates in Europe: A Glance at Their Causes and Implications (World Bank) Excerpt: “As an additional measure to stabilize inflation expectations, a number of major central banks in Europe—including the European Central Bank, the Danish National Bank, the Swedish Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank—have pushed key short-term policy rates into negative territory.”

ECB Rate Cut Likely But No Appetite for Now for Radical Easing: Policymakers (Reuters) Feeling reassured? Excerpt: “Doing nothing in March is very unlikely,” the governor of one of the euro zone’s 19 central banks told Reuters. “Monetary conditions have tightened, long term inflation expectations are falling and credibility is at stake.”

Negative Interest Rates? Deflation Risks Mean They Could Be Here To Stay (The Guardian) Excerpt: “Easy monetary policy with a mix of negative interest rates and QE is not all that surprising. It is unusual, to be sure, and conventional economics text books rarely, if ever, note the issues surrounding negative interest rates. But if inflation is very low and the risk of crossing the line below zero builds, counter-cyclical monetary policy requires interest rates to be cut and cut and cut, even if that means moving them well below zero.”

Creditors Must Brace for a Tsunami of Losses in a World Awash with Debt (The Telegraph) Excerpt: “Countries have taken on far more debt than can ever be repaid. As the European banking sell-off is already signalling, creditors are in for a brutal awakening. Get ready for debt restructuring mayhem.”

Personal Economics and Household Finance

3 Easy Ways to Pay Off Your Mortgage Early (Dave Ramsey) Excerpt: “Since we’re all about getting out of debt as quickly as possible, here are a few suggestions to get your home loan paid off quickly.”

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