Letter Re: Situational Awareness and Profiling

JWR & Group,

I have more of a question than a comment. I believe myself to be very situationally aware. I make conscience efforts to practice this necessary skill by watching people and thinking through what I see. I consider situational awareness to be both in your immediate environment and the extending. If a new neighbor moves in down the street that is part of my awareness. If my 90 year old neighbor doesn’t take out her trash I notice. These are the subtle changes to my environment that I track. When I am at the mall and I notice some movement that is not “in the flow” I take notice. (“in the flow” all crowds have a natural flow to them, when the flow changes then there is something to notice. Perhaps a fallen person or perhaps an altercation, either way learning to watch the flow of traffic/crowds helps to quickly identify anomalies in the crowd.)

Based on the recent events in Europe and even with the mass shootings here in our country I wonder if I would be able to identify a threat in time to take action. The event in Brussels made me think if I would have been able to notice the attackers. The profiling aspect of my question is more of a stereotyping issue. I wanted to know if you or any of your colleges could shed some light on, or offer some tips on, how to distinguish between a threat and biased perceptions (racism). Being somewhat ignorant of other cultures’ habits and customs (which I am working to change) I may mistake a standard gesture as a threat and make a fool of myself, or worse get into trouble for taking an unnecessary action. If I am asking this question then there is a good chance that others too have questioned how to distinguish between a threat and a non-threat. I don’t want to encourage racism but I recognize that stereotypes exist for a reason.

Simply put can you offer insight on how to be situationally aware and not racially profile. – JC

Hugh Replies: Part of being situationally aware means that you are sensitive to things that don’t belong. That can be as simple as a person dressed in a way that you are not familiar with or a person of a different race being where you don’t expect them. While the progressive/liberal would want to claim that as “racism”, it actually is not. It’s simply being unfamiliar with the situation and paying closer attention to it. It may have nothing to do with the person/things actual reason for being where it is, it’s just that you are not familiar with it. There is a considerable difference between trust (or lack thereof) and racism.

This is also one of the reasons soldiers returning from the battlefield have difficulty in society. What is considered normal here may be abnormal where they were stationed. A gesture that may be harmless here could have been the precursor to violent action there and recognition might make the difference between life and death. It really comes down to mental conditioning for your location and situation. Perhaps some who have experienced such a situation can chime in here.

Economics and Investing:

Cutting Through Bls Bull – Sent in by B.B.

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Avoid putting your money in these banks

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Items from Professor Preponomics:

US News

4 Outrageous Examples of Government Waste (Government Waste Fraud and Abuse) Among them, million dollar training retreats. Excerpt: “International Relief and Development collected billions of dollars from the government to help rebuild impoverished and war-torn countries around the world. At the same time, the company also billed over a million dollars to the government for retreats and parties at lavish resorts.”

Judicial Watch: Obama Family 2015 Honolulu Christmas Vacation Cost Taxpayers $3,590,313 in Flight Expenses Alone (Judicial Watch)

Boeing Plans to Cut Up to 8,000 Airplane Jobs – Sources (Reuters) Excerpt: “A reduction of 8,000 jobs, including managers and executives, could save the company $1 billion in labor costs, said Peter Arment, analyst at Sterne Agee CRT. The airplane unit “is targeting ‘billions’ of cost reduction by year-end,” which will help the company remain competitive, he said.”

MetLife wins Case Challenging Its Status as Threat to Financial System (Washington Examiner) Excerpt: “MetLife’s victory means that it will avoid the tougher regulations and higher capital requirements that come with the designation that it is a “systemically important financial institution.”

GE Capital Files Request for Rescission of Status as a Systemically Important Financial Institution (Business Wire) Excerpt: “The filing demonstrates that GE Capital has substantially reduced its risk profile and is significantly less interconnected to the financial system, and therefore does not pose any conceivable threat to U.S. financial stability.”

Economics: It’s Simpler than You Think (Mises) Excerpt: “In the view of John Tamny — an editor at Forbes and RealClearMarkets — economics as it is usually studied and taught in universities is unnecessarily complicated.”

International News

Britons Raid Savings to Fund Spending as Economists Warn Recovery “Built on Sand” (The Telegraph) Excerpt: “

Personal Economics and Household Finance

Protect Your Aging Family from the “Reload” Scam (Clark Howard) Video link.

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SurvivalBlog and its editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for details.

Odds ‘n Sods:

Seattle police raid home of privacy activists who maintain Tor anonymity network node – Either a dangerous slippery slope or Seattle Police are slow on the uptake that Tor is random and anonymous. – RBS.

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CIA leaves explosives on school bus after training exercise – I really find it hard to believe. They don’t have a bus for training and then forget the stuff in a bus used for actual students. – DSV

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Bloomberg Reports: US Commandos Trained to Stop Terrorists with “Dirty Bombs”. Submitted by T.A.

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A GRIM REPORT and REMINDER – ISIL Plotting to Use Drones for Nuclear Attack on the West Excerpt: “The issue of nuclear security and the security of nuclear materials, particularly when it comes to the problems of international terrorism, the concept of terrorists and nuclear materials coming together – which is obviously a very chilling prospect.” Submitted by T.A.

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Here is a story where a mom was arrested for making her children walk to school. The Deputy was quoted saying “Mrs. Palmer was in no position to reach her children safely in the event of an emergency.” She was in the car right in front of the kids! – C.W.

Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“There was a certain man in Cæsarea called Cornelius, a centurion of the band called the Italian band, a devout man, and one that feared God with all his house, which gave much alms to the people, and prayed to God alway. He saw in a vision evidently about the ninth hour of the day an angel of God coming in to him, and saying unto him, Cornelius. And when he looked on him, he was afraid, and said, What is it, Lord? And he said unto him, Thy prayers and thine alms are come up for a memorial before God.” Acts 10:1-4 (KJV)

Notes for Saturday – April 02, 2016

This is the birthday of Émile François Zola, a novelist and essayist. He is most often remembered as the author of “J’accuse” (I Accuse!), his lengthy open letter to president Félix Faure, which accused the French government of anti-semitism.

Round 63 Non-Fiction Writing Contest Winners Announced!

First Prize goes to R.C. for “Winter Survival- Part 1”, “Part 2”, and “Part 3”, which was posted on February 23rd, 24th, and 25th, 2016.

  1. A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chrome-lined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul PMAG 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
  6. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  7. The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
  8. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  9. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit with a retail value of $250, and
  10. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second Prize goes to Charles Fockaert for “Why You Need a Rocket Stove And How To Build Three Types- Part 1” and “Part 2”, Which was posted on March 8th and 9th, 2016.

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
  3. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  4. A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
  5. A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
  6. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  7. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
  8. Safecastle is providing a package of 10 LifeStraws (a $200 value)

Third Prize goes to Duliskov for “Backup Electric Power Design Considerations – Part 1”, “Part 2”, and “Part 3”, which was posted on March 19th, 20th, and 22nd, 2016.

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A $245 gift certificate from custom knife-maker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
  3. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  4. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  5. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
  8. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Honorable Mention prizes ($30 Amazon.com gift certificates via e-mail) have been awarded to the writers of these fine articles:

March in Precious Metals by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins

Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, by Steven Cochran of Gainesville Coins where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover the price action of gold and examine the “what” and “why” behind those numbers.

What Did Gold Do in March?

Gold had a bit of a roller coaster ride in March. Prices surged after the Fed did not raise benchmark interest rates at its March 16th policy meeting. Later in the month, a series of very hawkish speeches by five Federal Reserve regional presidents pushed gold down from its mid-month highs, but it recovered on a very dovish March 29th speech by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Yellen explicitly left open the door for QE4 (a fourth program of money printing and bond purchases) if needed.

Negative interest rates across the world and the lack of a rate increase by the Fed has gold recording its best quarter since 1986.

Factors Affecting Gold This Month

ECB Pulls Out The Stops

March 10th was the date of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting, which was more than anyone expected. ECB President Mario Draghi not only pushed benchmark interest rates even deeper into negative territory, he announced an expansion of the ECB’s quantitative easing program. Central bankers in Europe are losing their minds as their economies teeter on the brink of a deflationary spiral. Their policies of punishing banks and savers for daring to keep money on deposit has not had the expected outcome of spurring growth.

Noting all the global economic risks in play (Brexit, China debt crisis, U.S. elections), Bank of American analysts decreed the ECB policy announcement as “Quantitative Failure”. They note that “gold is one of the good investments left”.

Fed Rate Hike Speculation

Speaking of dovish central bank meetings, the Fed did not disappoint. Not only did it not raise interest rates again in March, but forward guidance showed that the majority of committee members had cut the expected number of rate hikes for 2016 from four to two. Gold went vertical on the news. In fact, all precious metals gained nearly 2½% in the first hour after the Fed statement. Crude oil gained 5%, while the dollar tanked.

Speculation on a rate hike next month went into high gear, as five of the 12 regional Fed presidents went on a hawkish media blitz in late March. All five talked up a very real possibility of an April rate hike, sending the dollar climbing and commodities lower.

On March 29th Chairwoman Yellen shot down this hawkish talk. Not only did she note global risks that were weighing on the U.S. economy, she opened the door to a possible QE4, if needed. She called present economic conditions worse than they were in December, when the Fed raised interest rates for the first time since the 2008 economic crisis.

Those interest rate hawks may want to check the GDPnow tool, run by the Atlanta Federal Reserve. From an original estimate of first quarter economic growth at 1.9%, it slipped to 1.4% last week, and 0.6% this week. Another research tool, the CME FedWatch tool, uses Federal Funds futures to predict Fed rate moves. At the end of the month, it gave only a 5% chance of an April rate hike. The odds don’t reach 50/50 until September, though these numbers change constantly.

Helicopter Money

The resounding failure quantitative easing, zero, and even negative interest rates has failed to raise inflation. After negative interest rates, which were supposed to be impossible, have failed to turn the European and Japanese economies around, the next step over the line is being discussed. Called “Helicopter Money,” the idea is to send checks directly to the public (perhaps as some sort of tax refund), or monetize Federal debt as a means to finance repairs to infrastructure. This is supposed to be a one-time event, if it is chosen. However, if the second option is chosen, it will be a replay of what happens every time the government gets ahold of the printing press. More and more money will get printed, to finance every Congressman’s pet “pork” projects, until the currency is so debased that we go into hyperinflation.

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS), called the “central bank of the central banks”, reprimanded the reckless behavior of central banks playing with negative interest rates. When New World Order entities, such as the BIS and International Monetary Fund, start criticizing your actions, you know that monetary policy has gone too far.

Brexit

The terror attacks in Brussels this month are strengthening the hand of the anti-EU side in Britain’s upcoming referendum on whether to remain in the EU or cut loose and go their own way. The “Stay” side is dominated by banking and industrial interests, while the “Leave” side is riding a populist wave of discontent over the flood of immigrants and the “encroachment” of EU laws superseding UK ones.

A “Brexit” will cause turmoil in markets on both sides of the Atlantic and be a huge headache for British companies doing business in Europe (i.e. most of them.) Proponents of leaving the EU say that the initial rough patch of breaking away will be worth the benefits later. While the two sides are running neck and neck right now, things will be certain to change before the June 23rd vote.

Dwindling Dollar

Even though the dollar has gotten temporary boosts this month (like hitting a two-week high on the hawkish Fedspeak in late March), the USD is having its worst month in 5½ years, hitting a 9-month low at the end of the month. This was hammered home by Yellen’s dovish speech on the 29th. Reuters went further, saying this is the dollar’s worst quarter since 2010.

On the Retail Front

Sales of the 2016 Silver Eagle bullion coin hit a year to date total of 14.8 million coins, as it seems set to make a run at another all-time annual record. The Perth Mint in Australia reported that it has had the best six months in its 117-year old history. Not only were coin and bar sales through the roof, but the Mint’s refinery processed 150 metric tons of gold and 300 metric tons of silver in that six months.

CoinWorld warns investors about a new wave of counterfeit PAMP Suisse one ounce gold bars. While the best protection against fakes is buying from a reputable precious metals distributor, a device like the Sigma Metalytics “Precious Metals Verifier” allows you to quickly test the purity of a coin and bar, even through the packaging.

Central bank gold action sees Russia, Kazakhstan, and China all adding to reserves again this month. Russia added 11.1 metric tons, for a total of 1,447 tons. Kazakhstan bought 2.7 tons, which was a 13.5% increase to their reserves, which now stand at 22.6 tons.

China’s gold reserves increased by 9.95 metric tons last month, as the big drain on foreign reserves continued. China has been selling dollars, bonds, and other currencies to fund intervention in the stock market and yuan currency market.

Market Buzz

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan says negative rates are nonproductive and encourage misuse of capital. A drop in productivity is causing the current economic stagnation, he says, and calls on the U.S. to rein in entitlements to restore that productivity.

Bond King Bill Gross is on the same page: “The reality is this. Central bank polices consisting of QE’s and negative/artificially low interest rates must successfully reflate global economies or else. They are running out of time. Or else what? Or else markets and the capitalistic business models based upon them and priced for them will begin to go south. Capital gains and the expectations for future gains will become Giant Pandas – very rare and sort of inefficient at reproduction.”

Super investment firms Blackrock and Pimco are both warning clients that inflation will start picking up soon. According to them, oil prices will start rising as higher-cost producers are forced out of the market, which is the worst kind of inflation to have. Blackrock, which has $4.6 trillion under management, advises people “We like inflation-linked bonds and gold as diversifiers.”

Stan Drukenmiller is one of the most successful hedge fund managers in the world, and he’s betting big on gold, too. He has put 30% of his fund assets into the SPDER Gold Trust ETF.

The World Gold Council says that negative interest rates will likely boost demand for gold.

Speaking of gold, where is America’s gold going? According to SRSrocco Report, most of it is going to only four countries.

We know where Venezuela’s gold is going– Switzerland.

Jewelers and bullion dealers in Indiawent on strike March 1, after a surprise excise tax was levied on gold products. Negotiations with the government led to many jewelers returning to work, while others demanded something more than the words of a government official before ending their strike.

In a tale of the dangers of digital money, the Bangladesh central bank SWIFT account, which connects it to the global banking network, was hacked. This allowed criminals to make off with $100 million from the central bank’s account at New York Fed, which was then laundered through Philippine casinos. At first, the Bangladeshi Central Bank threatened to sue the NY Fed for the $100 million, but it later came out that the breach happened in Bangladesh.

Speaking of things happening at central banks that shouldn’t, the Fed is finally under investigation for being controlled by “Too Big To Fail” banks, like Goldman Sachs. Called regulatory capture, it means that the regulatory agency turns a blind eye to abuses of the businesses it is supposed to be monitoring, or shapes regulations to favor them.

In a move that is sparking a huge backlash, the Royal Mint has blocked redemption of legal tender collectible coins. Its position is that, even though they are legal tender coins, collectible coins are not released into circulation, so they aren’t “real” legal tender coins. The RM has instructed banks not to accept them. This isn’t a law passed by Parliament; this is something the Royal Mint decided on its own. This will probably lead to the collapse of the domestic commemorative coin market in Britain.

Looking Ahead

While no one really believes the Fed could possibly raise interest rates in April, a good non-farm payrolls report could make markets antsy. There is no FOMC meeting in May, so the next chance for a rate hike would be June.

April is also supposed to be the grand meeting of the world’s top oil producers (except the U.S.) to negotiate a freeze to output levels. There’s a snowball’s chance in Saudi Arabia of a production cut, and not much more of a chance for even a freeze. In any case, oil markets will react badly.

You get an extra 72 hours before you have to cough up your tribute to Uncle Sam this year, as Tax Day isn’t until April 18 this year. You can thank the District of Columbia’s celebration of Emancipation Day for the reprieve.

And finally, we have a story that may be evidence that the terrorists have won:

A man with multiple sclerosis was transferring money from his Chase Bank account to his dogwalker and he put the 9-year-old pitbull’s name, “Dash,” in the memo line. The bank not only stopped payment, thinking that the money was being sent to fund Daesh, they reported the man to the U.S. Treasury Department’s anti-terrorism division.

The Treasury Department flagged his account until he could “explain what Dash means.” Once he cleared up the confusion, the government unblocked the payment. Unfortunately, is seems that Mr. Francis has bought into the “happily give up our freedom to save us from the terrorists” line that the government uses for expanding the police state, saying “I think anything we can do to stop the terrorists and the funding of terrorists, let’s do it.”

Letter Re: Solar Power

Hugh:

It seems straightforward to accumulate the beans, bullets, and band aids, and this site has been a tremendous help.

However, solar power seems formidable. Every article I read quickly devolves into talk of how to wire and link things, amps, voltage, et cetera. I am an older professional woman with no mechanical expertise, but I do know that electricity can be dangerous, and I hesitate to do these things myself.

It would be a tremendous help if someone could write an article listing simple plug-and-play systems that could be purchased from reputable companies. If they could do it by price points, it would be even better (e.g., if you have $1,000, buy this – and it will be enough to power these items). In addition, can these systems be left on at an unattended retreat or are they a fire hazard? – prepperdoc

Hugh Replies: Plug-n-play solar systems are expensive. There are things that have to be taken into account, which require technical expertise and is why solar installation is a thriving industry. You basically have two options:

  1. Use a plug-n-play system like Goal Zero or similar. You can get these systems from our advertisers, if you prefer to go that route:

    Don’t be afraid to call them. Each of these companies will ask you questions to learn what your needs are and will make recommendations based on your specific issues. You can certainly tell them you heard about them on SurvivalBlog.

  2. Assemble your own system from components on Amazon or a local supplier. This method is the least expensive, but it is also where all those techie things like “how to wire”, “amps”, “voltage”, “mechanical mounts”, and other things come in. There is no way around it. If you want to save money, you have to learn these things to go this route.

The techie stuff must be taken into account, and you are either going to learn it yourself or pay someone else to do it for you, but it has to be done.

Economics and Investing:

Worst Case Scenario = 73% Down From Here

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How Mainstream Economic Theories Regularly Miss The Mark

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Items from Professor Preponomics:

Professor Preponomics’ Reading Recommendation

Available on Amazon: Basic Economics: A Common Sense Guide to the Economy (5th Edition) by Thomas Sowell

US News

$10 Mil to End “Diaper Disparity” After Free Diaper Laws Fail Twice in Congress (Judicial Watch) Excerpt: “To get the ball rolling, the administration announced this month that it plans to spend $10 million to “test effective ways to get diapers to families in need and document the health improvements that result.” Because it’s unlikely that Congress will pass a law to accomplish this, Muñoz admits the administration is getting creative and using every tool it has to help solve this dire problem.”

State Department Hiring Interio Designers, Salaries Up to $141,000 (Washington Examiner) Excerpt: “The Division provides comprehensive interior design services to include programming, space planning, architectural finish specification and furniture for U.S. diplomatic missions worldwide…”

Obama’s Solar Socialism (Government Waste Fraud and Abuse) Excerpt: “Taxpayers have been bilked for billions of dollars for decades so politicians could funnel money into solar firms like Solyndra, which a new investigation by the Inspector General of the Department of Energy (DOE) confirms engaged in a “pattern of false and misleading assertions” to win a loan guarantee from DOE.”

Here’s Who Benefits from Worsening Puerto Rico’s Debt Crisis (The Federalist) Excerpt: “All the key players in the Puerto Rico debate are, to a greater or lesser degree, looking out for number one, but a solution that restores economic confidence and the ability of the island to become financially solvent should carry a good deal more weight than either concerns for the balance sheets of mega-consulting firms or the politics of the upcoming elections.”

International News

The Richest and Poorest Countries in the World (Visual Capitalist)

Weak Global Economy is Said to Threaten Government Finances (AP) Excerpted: “When growth is weak, governments collect less revenue and struggle to pay pensioners and meet all their debt payments.” These kinds of numbers mean we are not going to make good on these commitments….”

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SurvivalBlog and its editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for details.

Odds ‘n Sods:

A remake/spoof of the Simon & Garfunkle classic “The Sounds of Silence” has been posted on YouTube – Except this one is about the atrocities of Islam as they force their political system on you. “Sounds like Silence” – Watch it while you can – It didn’t make it very long on Facebook before being taken down. Warning: Very powerful video, but contains graphic images and some language. Sent in by RBS

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Questioning ‘gay’ lessons gets 4-year-old booted from preschool. Yet another reason to get your kids out of public schools (or liberal preschools). This kind of indoctrination can only lead to family trouble. – D.S.

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Trouble finding the finances to finish off those preps? Or maybe you’re just getting started? Top 10 Prepper Items You Can Find At A Garage Sale – Sent in by H.L.

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HUD Wants to Make Living in a Tiny House or RV Illegal – H.L.

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The US Airforce’s powerful new missile that doesn’t go boom . This weapon will have little effect against militaries with hardened electronics, but it could potentially have significant impact against smaller groups like ISIS…or constitutionalists. – A.S. Note: The article has an auto started video that has nothing to do with the subject other than just being housed in a cruise missile. Just stop the video and read the article.

Hugh’s Quote of the Day:

“And David danced before the Lord with all his might; and David was girded with a linen ephod. 15 So David and all the house of Israel brought up the ark of the Lord with shouting, and with the sound of the trumpet.” – 2 Samuel 6:14-15 (KJV)

Notes for Friday – April 01, 2016

April 1st is both April Fool’s Day and (unofficially) Molly Ivins Day. The latter refers to this key verse: “The fool hath said in his heart, There is no God.” (Psalm 14:1 KJV)

April 1st, 1886 was the birthday of Arthur W. Pink, who died 15 July 1952 and was an English Christian evangelist and excellent Reformed Biblical scholar. It was his meticulously referenced arguments in his book, The Sovereignty of God, that first convinced JWR of the truth of the doctrine of Election.

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Today, we present the first entry for Round 64 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chrome-lined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul PMAG 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
  6. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  7. The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
  8. A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
  9. KellyKettleUSA.com is donating both an AquaBrick water filtration kit with a retail value of $250, and
  10. Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Second Prize:

  1. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  2. A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
  3. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  4. A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
  5. A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
  6. A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
  7. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
  8. Safecastle is providing a package of 10 LifeStraws (a $200 value)

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A $245 gift certificate from custom knife-maker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
  3. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  4. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  5. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  6. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
  7. Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
  8. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 64 ends on May 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

No Way!- Part 1, by J.P.

This is a letter to my fellow Americans. My heart is to help Americans see that which is coming.

Okay, take a breath, slow down for a moment, open your eyes, and take a good look. What do you see, what do you hear, and then what do you feel? Something isn’t right. What happened to safe streets, children playing outside alone, and walking downtown to the movies on Saturday afternoon. Why are all of the house doors locked all of the time. Where did our America go? English, who speaks that language? When are we saying the Pledge of Allegiance with our hand over our hearts or The Lord’s Prayer, if you can remember that far back?

America is in trouble, and you are America. America is this large glob of people living on a big lot interconnected with roads, planes, trains, wires, and wireless tentacles keeping all related to each other in one form or another on a day to day basis. It’s quite a large metabolic mechanism to keep in check and working all together in somewhat melodious harmony. Well, the harmony part is getting a little weak, which then makes the whole thing a little weak. Harmony is what Americans were all about. (Notice the key word– were.) Family is America’s backbone, and when the backbone is weakened, America becomes endangered. She loses her harmony and she becomes weak and negligent. We’re so involved with the movie of life, we have stopped paying attention.

It’s time to pay attention folks! The title of this article– “No Way”– is like saying “I can’t”. “Can’t” couldn’t do anything, the saying goes. “No way”, or is it “Yes way”, there is something sneaking up on you, and you need to pay attention and take your eyes off the movie of life for a moment. If you get caught unaware, you won’t be finishing the movie. If that happens, then you will have to contend with the “Oh No”, so to speak.

You have stuff to get done. It’s just not what you are thinking. What could that be; life is good, and all is well. All is not well, my friends. There is an America who has lost its harmony and has become negligent of its foundation. When you don’t take care of your home, it will eventually fall apart from outside forces– rain, wind, sun, bugs, dirt, and, you know, the usual stuff. Other outside forces are chipping away at America. She has become vulnerable because she has become negligent. She is not in harmony and her foundation is becoming weakened. Weak foundations are frail and do not have the strength to resist outside forces. Yes, you got stuff to do alright. It is defending the foundation.

Let’s be honest. There are forces in the world that hate America, hate Americans, and want us destroyed. Those forces represent the worst of evil that can be imagined. There is good, and there is evil. That theme runs through almost every movie we watch. Evil exists, and we must stop thinking, “No way. We are the good guys, and good guys always win in the movies.” Yes they do but not without a fight. What fight? A fight for your family and for America. America is weakened and you are in a weakened state. Furthermore, the idea of “No way” is in your head. Can you and your family resist outside forces who want you gone? I dare say, you cannot resist, because you are being caught unaware and unprepared to react to a surprise! Outside forces are sneaking up on us, slowly, so as not to be alarmingly noticed. However, if you would stop and listen, you would notice. You would notice that your foundation is weak, and you would notice that you are not prepared to react to a surprise. The world of evil is not going to announce its intentions. They will be a surprise, which you will have to react to. You will, of course, react with shock and then maybe panic, if you are not prepared.

Are you prepared? For what, I don’t know. In Boy Scouts, I was taught to be prepared for anything. What is anything? Anything is whatever it takes to survive an incident, whether it be a scratch falling off your bicycle, a 10 car pile-up on the interstate, or a Midwest tornado. Being prepared means having the mental capacity and resources required to deal with an unscheduled event. What are you supposed to be preparing for? Well, I don’t know. You say, “What could possibly happen?” Then, you are one of those “No way” people, eh, where nothing bad is going to happen. That is why you are not prepared for surprises. Surprises only happen to other people, but if you got this far in the article, maybe you are beginning to stop and listen.

Listen. Surprises do happen. Surprises can be anything from a short scare to something that results in death. Surprises really don’t care about you and whether you are prepared. The funny thing is that when surprises pick on prepared people, the outcome gets kicked in the teeth. The surprise got surprised!!! Tuck that away in your brain: surprise the surprise! Prepared people are fighters; they choose not to be victims. So, are you a fighter or a victim. That’s gonna take some figurin’. Here’s a news flash: If you choose not to be a fighter, you will become a victim, sadly maybe a dead one. Prepared people are ready to react to unforeseen circumstances. Can you prepare for anything? No, not really, but you can make a big dent and increase your odds greatly of not becoming a victim. Of course, when you set yourself up as a victim (through neglect), you have given evil the opportunity to prevail. I choose not to be a victim, and I choose to prevail over evil. What do you choose?

Choose to Prevail

Well, hello. You must have chosen to be a prevailer, since you are reading on. Good for you. America needs you; she is lost without her fighters. If you have ever watched an old 1950’s Superman episode, Superman stated that he was fighting for “truth, justice, and the American way”. That’s our America. Let’s save her from neglect and destruction. No one is going to do it for us. We are America. We are her fighters. We the People will fight for “truth, justice, and the American way”. So, you are signing up for that, yes?

Okay, “We the People”, let’s get busy. You got stuff to get done. You are a fighter, and you are going to be prepared. Evil is not going to prevail, and you are! You are going to prepare, and you are going to stop and listen so as not to be surprised and be caught unaware. You will be ready to react with your retrained attitude of “I can” and will gather resources, which will help you and your family come through unannounced surprises. America cannot survive without her people taking responsibility for their country. It belongs to you, not evil. You are the keeper of America. She is counting on you!

What Could Surprise Us

What are the surprises that we should be preparing for? Nobody knows what will happen, but there is enough history to remind us that something surely will happen to a neglectful people. No nation can endure with negligent inhabitants. Past nations have fallen due to neglect and future ones will, as well. What will happen? You ask, what will hurt us and what harm can an outside force exert upon us? What will hurt us is no food, no water, and no money. Yeah, that would hurt! Yes, it would. How would the U.S. get to that point? Well, the U.S. is in great financial debt, maybe that volatile financial system will break. Our borders are open and lots of bad guys are walking across it daily. There are bad guys who are coming in legally, who are also able to do bad things at their choosing. Bad nations are getting nuclear weapons and aerospace capabilities. That’s a dangerous combination. The bad guy “computer geeks” are breaking into our weakened computer systems. A lot of things can be broken, since our nation is controlled by computers and the Internet. There are electric systems, water systems, financial systems, and mass databases that can be damaged. We give the bad guys free worldwide communications service via the Internet and social media. There is much opportunity and means for the bad guys to break things that will hurt us. A nation, whose people only have two weeks of sustenance on hand, are extremely weakened and vulnerable. We can live without money but not without food and water. It seems we are wide open for a big hurt, and the evil forces are inclined to hurt us.

Worst Case

Let’s now go worst case, the electric power goes off. That would really hurt us. How could that happen? A nuclear attack, a computer hack, or the local destruction of our power grid primary transformers. A nuclear attack causes an electromagnetic pulse (EMP), which destroys all electronics everywhere. They have already computer-hacked many systems worldwide. No system is impervious to malicious intruders. What all this means is that if the power goes down, “Houston, we have a problem.” Yes, it’s a very big and a long one– way more than two weeks. That’s all the food you got, right? What are you gonna do after that? How much water do you have? You have two weeks worth, for drinking, cooking, toilets, laundering, and bathing. That’s a lot of water needs, eh? Twenty-four water bottles is not gonna get it done. Of course, beyond the water issue, all of the food in your frig is lost. Oops!

There’s no power, as Schumer has hit the fan! With no preparations, panic is the next mode you will be in, guaranteed. You say, “No way”? Sorry, Yes, way! Panic ensues, due to no resources to help you react to the surprise. You have no mental training and no written plan to read and implement. Of course, you will be living around thousands of other Americans also with the “No way” plan in place, and they will all be in the same panic mode. Now, the mass population is in panic. Nothing good is happening and FEMA is not coming to rescue you. This will become the worst day of your life, and all will be downhill from there. Fortunately, you are now an “I can/Yes way” person. Schumer is still spewing out of the fan, but at least you, the fighter, have a chance, which is better than no chance, in my book.

The Work of a Fighter

So, what is a fighter supposed to do? Prepare your mind first. You have to transition from a follower to a leader. Leadership takes courage and perseverance. There is a big job ahead of you and the time to accomplish it is shortening. Train your mind to know trouble may be ahead; times may become very difficult, and sacrifices will be required. Any generation, preceding our times, had to fight and sacrifice to win. Some had to die, but our American heroes were never victims. If power goes out, you will have a plan in hand, made certain preparations, gathered resources, and trained yourself. Any war America ever fought required all of these things.

Your mind’s capacity to perform under stress will determine your ability to protect you and your family. You will need a plan of what you are preparing for, what will be needed, and who and when it will be implemented. Get some notebooks to put your planning notes in. Do not keep them in a computer that may not work in an emergency. Use the Internet as the resource to learn about the things your family needs.

Now, I must instill a little fear into you. Fear is good, if it gets you moving in the right direction. Fear should not paralyze you but rather guide you carefully to a better outcome. Fear can actually protect you, if it is under control. So, if you have enough warning about things that will drive you into deep fear, you can adjust your pre-planned response ahead of time. Your home basically has about two weeks’ supply of living stuff in it, right? Grocery stores will immediately be stripped. Remember, the terrorists have just knocked down the power grid. Consider these immediate issues thrust upon you:

  • Toilet paper is gone. Now what?
  • The toilet has no water to flush with. You know where that’s going.
  • Hygiene articles– toothpaste, soap, shampoo, mouthwash, et cetera, and tampons (a really big problem)– are not available.
  • Water is unavailable. There is no power, so no running water. Those 24 water bottles are gone. You need to flush, wash, cook, drink with what?
  • Refrigerator’s food all spoiled in a couple of days.
  • Medicine, such as those for your blood pressure, pain, et cetera, and also insulin and antibiotics, will run out with no drug store to go to.
  • Smokes get smoked. You won’t die but you will become instantly frantic when they are gone.
  • Alcohol, well, if you have a drinking issue this will rock your boat for sure.
  • First Aid is something you don’t really miss until it becomes necessary and there is none.
  • Baby needs– diapers, milk, baby food won’t be available at the story.
  • Environment concerns will hit with no heating or cooling.

That’s just the tip of the ice berg. These are the things you will immediately be confronted with when the power goes out. I hope your heart rate has just increased a few beats. It gets real scary real quick. If you have not prepared, you will be stricken with panic instantly, and the whole neighborhood will be in the same mode. A really big mess, indeed, has ensued.

Letter Re: Prepper Auctions

HJL,

In my 26 years as an auctioneer I have conducted over five of these type auctions. Three were defaulted storage auctions. Normally, we don’t know what we have until the door is opened. The first one that I remember was around 1993. It was a 10 X 20 unit. In it were three crossbows, boxes of climbing gear for mountain climbing (crampons, pitons, ropes, and harnesses), first aid kits with blood expander, packs and pack frames, firearms, various brands of dehydrated food, small cook stoves, and so forth. The next one I remember was a 5 X 10 heated unit full of new guns, ammo, packs, food, portable gasoline-operated winch (it worked off of a chainsaw engine and was new from factory), and many other items. The third was a 10 X 15 unit where the person had passed and the relatives said, “Sell it.” It was full of over 100 boxes of books on every subject imaginable, with many on the same subject by different authors. Another was an estate where there were over 75 firearms, many new unfired but in odd calibers, and literally a ton of ammo; some was from the factory and some re-loads. There was reloading gear, powder, NVG, several binoculars and monoculars for range finding, books, brass, lead, lead casting items. It took four auctions of about three hours each to sell it all. In today’s era, the younger relatives don’t want to deal with the eccentricities of Mom or Dad and will dispose of years of accumulation of what is to them “useless junk”. Having read Patriots and several other books about four years ago, I have come to appreciate these type of auctions. If you have the time, farm estate auctions as well as storage auctions can be a place to find many items for prepping. For me and my wife, even though we are auctioneers, we cannot pass up an on-site farm estate auction. – Prepper in ANC

Economics and Investing:

71,777,758 Enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP; Up 14,478,342 Since Obamacare Exchanges Opened; 1 for Every 2 Americans With a Job – B.B.

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Price Controls May Be On the Way

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Items from Professor Preponomics:

US News

California Audit Reveals Pension Debt Grew by 2,000% (Breitbart) Excerpt: “With the addition of the GASB’s required balance sheet adjustments, each of California’s approximately 12.7 million households now is on the hook for about $31,904 in pension obligations.”

Study: Big Banks Don’t Have Enough Capital Cushion (Washington Examiner) Excerpt: “In other words, big banks such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley would have to increase their capital levels by as much as 40 percent, on average, to be adequately capitalized.”

Price Controls May be On the Way (Mises) Excerpt: “Market forces want to drive prices down, while central banks attempt to prop them up. So what to do when central banks aren’t getting their way?”

International News

Japan’s Negative Rates a Looming Headache for Central Banks (Business Insider) Excerpt: “Negative yields make it a challenge to calculate a bond’s fair value, the returns it can be expected to generate through maturity. Market participants say wide spreads between bids and offers also complicate trading, and increase volatility.”

Can Anything Rescue Japan from the Abyss? (The Telegraph) Excerpt: “Having decided to carry out the most radical experiment in monetary stimulus in modern history, buying up 80 trillion yen in government debt every year, there is now increasing disquiet within the ranks of the central bank.”

Personal Economics and Household Finance

The Self-Reliance Manifesto: More than 300 Resources to Guide You on the Path to Radical Freedom (The Organic Prepper) Excerpt: “Self-Reliance. It’s a revolutionary word these days and I thought it deserved a manifesto.”

How to Stop Wasteful Spending: Follow the Money… (Clark Howard) Excerpt: “…no single, big ticket item that was an out-of-the-ordinary purchase. In fact, far too many of them looked all too familiar… and frequent.”

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