This article serves as an open letter, primarily to Tulsi Gabbard, President-elect Trump’s Director of National Intelligence (DNI) designee. It would also be of interest to planners in the CIA’s Directorate of Operations (DO). Take note that rather than re-hashing some well-documented historical subjects, I will be relying heavily on quoting the InfoGalactic Wiki. Also, note that this is an article about strategy rather than tactics.
–
Carborundum
With casualties mounting after more than two years of intense fighting in Ukraine, the Ukrainian Army is quite simply losing its war of attrition against the combined Russian ground and air forces. Russia is a much larger nation with a much larger army and air force. In a war of attrition, time is on their side. Meanwhile, Ukraine is now running out of Military Age Males (MAMs). The MAM manpower shortage is now so acute that the Biden administration recently urged the Ukrainian government to start drafting 18-year-olds. The sad truth is that if the war drags on, by 2027 the Ukrainian Army will predominantly be composed of very young conscripts, and men in the 50s. Most of those in the ages between will be battlefield statistics. (Read: killed or permanently disabled.)
With that demographic imperative in mind, it seems obvious that in a best case, Ukraine will be forced to cede some territory in Crimea — the eastern portion of their nation — to the Russians, and parlay for peace. In a worst case, Russia will commit to a much longer war, and seek to conquer the proverbial “Whole Enchilada.” That would transform the war from a simple war of attrition and limited territorial conquest into a full-scale war of subjugation and genocide.
The fight that the Ukrainian armed forces have put up in defending its territory is commendable. But the sheer weight of the Russian forces and the Russian government’s willingness to fight a relatively static war of numbers has made the loss of some ground in Ukraine almost inevitable.
In rethinking the American strategy in Ukraine, one key aspect is contingency planning for if and when Ukraine is partly or entirely overrun by Russian forces. In my estimation, Moldova is similarly at risk. The thrust of this article is that the United States needs to develop a Stay Behind Strategy, in planning their military assistance for Ukraine, and possibly elsewhere in Eastern Europe, the Baltic nations, and Scandinavia.
Continue reading“A “Stay Behind” Strategy for Ukraine and Moldova”