“I will greatly rejoice in the Lord, my soul shall be joyful in my God; for he hath clothed me with the garments of salvation, he hath covered me with the robe of righteousness, as a bridegroom decketh himself with ornaments, and as a bride adorneth herself with her jewels.” – Isaiah 61:10 (KJV)
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Notes for Friday – September 30, 2016
Vic at Safecastle says, “It feels like we’re all about to enter the whirlwind. Tie it all down fast and while you’re at it, get in some Mountain House foods–in 30-year cans or 30-year pouches–at the discounts of up to 46% with FREE shipping.” Safecastle’s MH sale ends Friday, September 30.
Today, we present another entry for Round 66 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:
First Prize:
- A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
- A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
- A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
- DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chrome-lined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
- Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul PMAG 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
- Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
- The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
- A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
- KellyKettleUSA.com is donating an AquaBrick water filtration kit with a retail value of $250, and
- Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).
Second Prize:
- A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
- A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
- A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
- A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
- A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
- A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
- RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
- American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
Third Prize:
- A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
- A $245 gift certificate from custom knife-maker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
- A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
- Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
- Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
- Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
- Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
- Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
Round 66 ends on September 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
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Live Your Survival and Gain Sufficiency-Part 1, by E.M.
Self-sufficiency – noun: the state of not requiring any aid, support, or interaction, for survival; it is therefore a type of personal or collective independence.
Survival – [s?r?v?v?l] – noun: the state or fact of continuing to live or exist, typically in spite of an accident, ordeal, or difficult circumstances.[1]
In our day-to-day world, there are varied degrees of survival required of us. This is true simply because there are wide-ranging degrees of threat that we face.
And in today’s economic death spiral of Keynesian Economics[2], politically corrupt leadership, and a war torn world, many are already beginning to experience the peripheral edge of a “deep survival” state because of those same threats. There are more at that edge than I think we care to admit. Government figures of non-participation in the labor force and welfare rolls alone support this. We can look at the high percentage of millennials still at home and the lack of savings they have. Let’s not forget the fact that one out of five families does not have anyone working in them.
I am sure we can all point out a myriad of other examples as well. We could even make them an entire topic of conversation in and of themselves. The point is that an honest interpretation of the financial side of “civil order” tells us that we are in real trouble as a society and a nation.
While most are not fully engulfed in a deep survival mode at present, many do exist in a heightened state of survival with darker days on the horizon. Just the pressing threats of civil unrest, natural disaster, financial collapse, world war, and terrorism are enough to raise the Spidey senses a few notches, and it is forcing people at all levels to find new ways to survive day in and day out. It is sort of like being the frog in a pot of heating water and being boiled at a slow roll.
Unless we want to be the boiled frog, we need a strong mind, body, and soul that can assess threat, plan a defense, and then execute it. Plus, when it comes to defining “survival”, it is important to remember that survival and sufficiency are learned and earned over time.
That is to say that a man cannot easily walk the journey from his traditional 9 to 5 job with three kids and a wife into a deep survival mode overnight and expect there to be some automatic switch that is going to make him able to perform and act under pressure of threat without preparation and training, not for long at least. It’s no different really than the person who buys an AR platform. They take it home, show it off a bit, and then shove it in a safe or the closet, expecting that in a time of real threat they will be able to use it effectively without proper training and muscle memory. Sorry, it is just not happening! It’s also like the couple that has a pile of seeds and never grows anything. While you may have the seeds, you don’t have food unless you can grow them! Let’s not even mention storing the food for long-term use. Deep survival is not something you pull out of a 72-hour pack or the garage when the coming storm makes landfall. At least not without ever carrying the pack or cooking out of the #10 cans, it isn’t.
Much like an athlete doesn’t just sign up, put on the uniform, and run on to the field to play, you don’t just prep and play. No,, there is practice in between each game, and those that practice with purpose become sufficient in the game and excel. Similarly those who “prepare” but do not live the preparation by nature have less of a chance of actually using those preparations to their maximum benefit and self-sufficiency.
We all need training, just like the athlete. However, you and I are not training for a game. You and I are training for our life and the life of our family.
It is important to remember that successful and measurable survival is lived at some level, not stored in a pack or closet, and our chances of success in a deep survival scenario increase dramatically the more we have a tuned mind, body, and soul to complement our physical and operational preparations. So, live your survival before you get there, and it will be livable when it arrives.
The Mind
Without a sharp and well-healed mind, we are less likely to make thorough decisions, take action, and effectively offset threats. It makes it even more difficult for us to see the threats on the horizon when we do not have good mental clarity and focus. If we are not thinking, planning, and acting ahead, well then we are falling behind.
It is for reasons like this that we must keep our mind in tune. In a deep survival situation, critical thinking skills are vital and will provide a higher degree of certainty that we are living through it and not just surviving in it.
Survival Tip #1 For the Mind (All Levels): Crosswords, Sudoku, Reading, and Poker
Who needs Luminosity when we have these rudimentary exercises, which really can be fun? These exercises can be challenging, and they require you to focus thought in one place for an extended period of time. This will help you improve your mental focus over time.
It will also provide you with knowledge and experience and an opportunity to research and learn. Believe it or not, when these exercises are done with daily regularity they will help you in your ability to make quicker and more targeted decisions.
However, there is one catch; you should use no phone, tablet, kindle, PC, laptop, or digital screen, please. Use the real thing, like a crossword or puzzle book, a novel, or a field manual. Also, when you play poker, try and do it with real people at a real table with real cards and chips. Turn off the virtual screens and pick up a pair of weights for your mind.
Outcome:
These exercises will help you think ahead and make decisions based on potential future outcomes. They will teach you how to find answers to things you do not know. They will help you in assessing your threats. They will give you skill in concentration. Additionally, these exercises will help round your knowledge base and make your mind a sharper weapon.
Survival Tip #2 For the Mind (All Levels): “Draw It”
A cohesive team is always an advantage in deep survival scenarios. One of the fundamental principles of team cohesion is communication. The clearer, faster, and more concise you can communicate with your team, the more agile and effective you are both as a leader and a team member.
This exercise should be done with some frequency to sharpen your skills and will require some maintenance and upkeep along the way. You will require the following for the exercise:
- Three different color crayons or markers, which you will share,
- Two pads of paper (one for each of you), and
- Two people.
- Without the other person seeing what you are drawing, draw (4) four shapes in a way that at least (2) two of the shapes overlap one another. Keep the shapes empty at this point, do not fill them in. Use at least (2) two different colors if not all of them in your drawing.
- With the other person still facing away from you, hand them your crayons or markers and then turn with your back to theirs. Now begin to instruct them on replicating what you have drawn on your pad of paper. Remember, the other person is not to see what you have drawn. Guide them step by step until you are sure they have the same picture as you. Do this without looking what they are drawing either!
- Compare!
Outcome:
This is actually a fun exercise for kids of all ages. It helps build communication skill.
Good communication skills are needed for effective leadership and team interaction. Good communication lends to making our workaday world easier and us more effective in it as well. Good communication skills are also required to relay information up the ladder to those that may need it from us. Our ability to communicate up and down the ladder is vital to our ability to live a deep survival scenario.
This exercise will help you learn how to give direction to others in a way that expresses exactly what you mean and want them to do. It will also allow you the opportunity to receive some instruction as well. Alphas can have a real hard time on the “receiving” portion of this exercise. However, a wise alpha will use the opportunity to be on the receiving end and evaluate their “instructor”. They will listen to them and learn. That way they will know what to expect from them in a pinch!
It can also allow you the opportunity to know which team members are effective communicators and recognize those who are not. There is no need to be threatened heroes!
References
[1]Oxford Dictionary on line definition.
[2]Keynesian Economics – Keynesian economics are the various theories about how in the short run, and especially during recessions, economic output is strongly influenced by aggregate demand (total spending in the economy).
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Letter Re: Differences Between Combustible Gases
James, Hugh,
Before someone gets hurt or blows themselves up, here are some more details on the gases in question.
Natural gas is produced primarily from high pressure gas deposits deep within the earth, and to a lesser extent as a byproduct of oil production. Natural gas is what is provided to most homes that are connected to a gas main, served by a gas company. Natural gas is primarily Methane gas, with a formula of CH4, or one Carbon atom with four Hydrogen atoms.
Methane has the disadvantage that it cannot be liquefied by compression. Natural gas must either be stored at high pressure (2000-3000 PSIG / 130 – 200 bar) for vehicle or other portable use. This is called CNG Compressed Natural Gas. Since methane is stored as a gas, the remaining volume in the cylinder can be determined by the pressure.
To store massive amounts of natural gas, or to ship it across continents in ships, the gas can be liquefied by refrigeration, and low pressure. This is called LNG Liquefied Natural Gas. LNG is stored and transported at approximately (?260 °F /?162 °C) degrees and 4 psi / .25 bar maximum. The liquid can then be vaporized and converted back to gas at the final destination. Methane is lighter than air, and most small leaks will dissipate.
Propane and Butane are produced primarily as a byproduct of oil production and separated by distillation. They are commonly referred to by the generic term LPG, Liquefied Petroleum Gas.
Due to the longer molecular structure, the molecules can be rearranged to make compounds such as Iso-butane, which has the same chemical formula as butane but different physical characteristics. For the purpose of this article, I am only discussing normal propane and butane. In the USA, propane and butane are sold separately. In other parts of the world, especially warmer climates, they are sometimes sold as a mixture.
Propane has a formula of C3H8, or three carbon atoms with eight hydrogen atoms, and is the most commonly available LPG, which is used to fill the BBQ tanks, the little propane tanks for propane torches, propane camping appliances, and lanterns, primarily in the USA. (Most of the rest of the world uses butane, including the small portable stoves that use the hairspray style cans of gas.)
Propane is also stored in the large tanks outside of the houses, of those that are not connected to the natural gas “grid”.
Propane is stored in these pressure vessels as a liquid, at a pressure of 120 psig / 8.3 bar at room temperature. Withdrawing propane from cylinder too quickly will cause the liquid to cool off, and the pressure drop. Condensation will frequently form on the outside of the cylinder as well. The top of the condensation on the cylinder is a good indication of the level in the cylinder. Since the gas is stored as a liquid, a pressure reading cannot be used to determine the remaining gas volume. One has to weigh the cylinder, or use the condensation method to determine the remaining volume. Large storage tanks are equipped with a liquid level gauge. Propane has a boiling point of approximately -44 degrees. As long as the temperature is above -44 degrees, gas will come out of the cylinder, although the pressure drops as the temperature decreases.
Butane has a formula of C4H10, or four carbon atoms with 10 hydrogen atoms. Butane is used primarily in low pressure applications, like filling lighters and for use in the portable stoves using hairspray style gas cylinders. Butane is used for most camping appliances in the rest of the world, outside of the USA, but it does not work well in colder climates. Bulk butane is stored in the same style pressure vessels as propane, and the valves use the same style threads. Butane is stored in these pressure vessels as a liquid, at a pressure of 29 psig / 2.0 bar at room temperature. This low pressure is one reason why butane is used in lighters. The small volume of gas and low pressure makes lighters relatively safe. Withdrawing butane from cylinder too quickly will cause the liquid to cool off and the pressure drop. Condensation will frequently form on the outside of the cylinder as well. The top of the condensation on the cylinder is a good indication of the level in the cylinder. Butane has a boiling point of approximately -32F/0C degrees. This relatively high boiling point makes it unsuitable for use in cold climates. Trying to get butane out of a cylinder during a snow storm is not going to happen, unless the cylinder is heated. General gas items and trivia:
All three gases will form explosive mixtures when mixed at the correct ratio with air.
Both butane and propane are heavier than air and will accumulate in low points and cellars. Severe and fatal building explosions have occurred due to gas accumulations in basements.
Always respect the enormous power of these gases and the energy stored in them.
All three gases are odorless and have an odorant added to be able to detect leaks.
Newer style LPG containers have special valves that contain an OPD– overfill protection device– in the valve to prevent overfilling of a cylinder. LPG containers can only be filled to 80%, to allow expansion of the liquid as the cylinder warms up.
Larger, non-disposable LPG tanks use a left hand thread at the valve connection. This is marked by a small groove in the hex nut. Newer style valves use a large hand tightened connection instead of the older connection.
LPG cylinders have a safety pressure relief built into the valve, or tank, to allow the pressure to be released in case the cylinder is involved in a fire. In a large fire, these relief valves are usually too small, and the containers will explode into a spectacular fireball, sending metal fragments all over the place.
Shooting at a propane tank will make a hole and will not create a spectacular, Armageddon-size explosion, like in the movies; although there may be a spectacular fireball if the gas ignites.
Most Airsoft guns use propane, butane, isobutane, or a mixture thereof as propellant. Always use the correct gas, or you may damage your gun.
Lower pressure butane can be used in most propane rated equipment but not the other way around. Due to the difference in pressures, the gases cannot be interchanged without knowing the pressure rating of the equipment. LPG requires special hoses to handle it. The gas can attack and dissolve hoses that are not formulated for LPG.
Household appliances are usually manufactured for natural gas, but most can be converted to propane by changing the gas orifices at the burners and adjusting the regulator pressure. In areas where there is no natural gas, appliances are usually ready for propane. All appliances have a label clearly showing what gas they are initially set up for.
Gases have their energy content rated in BTU, which is also what appliances are rated in. This makes it easy to determine how much gas you will need. For example, propane contains 21622 BTU per pound, or 91502 BTU per gallon (US). If your stove has a 16000 BTU burner and you plan on cooking for four hours, you will require 4 X 16000 BTU = 64000 BTU to cook your dinner (possibly a large turkey?). This would be 2.6 pounds or 0.7 gallons. These calculations are important if you use propane for heating and don’t want to run out of gas during a winter storm. A 250 gallon home tank is usually filled with 200 gallons propane, which equals 18.3 million BTU. This would operate a 125000 BTU furnace for 146 hours. If the furnace runs four hours per day, this would last 36 days.
Due to the low boiling point, propane can cause frost bite if allowed to get on the skin as liquid.
None of the three gases mentioned are poisonous, but they will cause death by asphyxiation (displacing air with gas). The generic formula for normal hydrocarbon gases is C(n) H(2n+2) where the number in the parenthesis represents the number of atoms. There are always (twice as many, plus 2) H atoms for every C atom.
The four gases are Methane, Ethane, Propane, and Butane. Pentane and larger molecules are liquids and no longer gases.
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Economics and Investing:
The Top Four Precious Metals: Which Will Be The Best Investments During The Next Financial Crash
o o o
Reader GJM sent in these links about Deutsche Bank:
Stocks Are Crashing – Led By Banks
The Run Begins: Deutsche Bank Hedge Fund Clients Withdraw Excess Cash
Major Dollar Shortage Exposed In Europe As Deutsche Bank Contagion Spreads
Some Deutsche Bank Clients Reduce Collateral on Trades
Stock Quote: Deutsche Bank AG
Now, to start watching the VIX…multiple times a day. (And to start stockpiling everything you’d want if you knew you were about to wake up in about 480 AD.
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Items from Mr. Econocobas:
Video : Mike Maloney – The Biggest Monetary Transformation Since WWII
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SurvivalBlog and its editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for details.
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Odds ‘n Sods:
Leaked memo: Refugees vet themselves – B.B.
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Immigration Policy Favors Illegals Over Citizens – B.B.
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Dangerous Crossroads: Both Russia and America Prepare for Nuclear War? – D.R.
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Analysis: Is it lawful self-defense to “run down” rioters surrounding your vehicle? – P.S.
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Twin tornadoes cause of state-wide blackout in South Australia – A.S.
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Hugh’s Quote of the Day:
“I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone am morally responsible for everything I do.” – Robert Heinlein
Notes for Thursday – September 29, 2016
September 29th, 1881, is the birthday of Ludwig von Mises (born 1881, died October 10, 1973).
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SurvivalBlog just learned that Bill Mollison passed away in Hobart, Tasmania, Austrailia at the age of 88. Together with Davide Holmgren, he developed what we now call Permaculture, a holistic way of farming, changing the lives of millions around the world
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Today, we present another entry for Round 66 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:
First Prize:
- A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
- A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
- A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
- DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chrome-lined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
- Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul PMAG 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
- Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
- The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
- A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
- KellyKettleUSA.com is donating an AquaBrick water filtration kit with a retail value of $250, and
- Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).
Second Prize:
- A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
- A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
- A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
- A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
- A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
- A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
- RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
- American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
Third Prize:
- A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
- A $245 gift certificate from custom knife-maker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
- A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
- Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
- Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
- Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
- Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
- Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
Round 66 ends on September 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
The Art and Practice of OPSEC, by T.H.
What is it? We often hear the term OPSEC, also know as Operations Security (not Operational Security), but few people actually know what it really means. When asked they often say, “It means not talking about what you are doing.” Or, they may say, “It means staying gray.” This is an extremely simplistic view of the program and fails to incorporate the nuances and methodology of the process.
The concept is nothing new. In the fifth century BCE, Sun Tzu wrote, “If I am able to determine the enemy’s dispositions while at the same time I conceal my own, then I can concentrate and he must divide.” The idea of keeping military information closely held has been practiced by the U.S. military in every war and conflict.
Being that OPSEC is a military program, let’s look at the official definition:
“An analytical process used to deny an adversary critical information about our planning process and operations.”
That is all well and good, but what does that really mean and where did it come from? OPSEC, as a formalized security program, came from a Vietnam era NSA effort called “Purple Dragon”.
In 1965, LBJ ordered bombing missions against Viet Cong (VC) and North Vietnamese Army (NVA) targets in SE Asia. These missions operated under the code names ARC LIGHT and ROLLING THUNDER. By 1966 it was becoming obvious that the bombing missions were not having the desired effects. U.S. ground units and bomb damage assessments were showing there were far fewer VC and NVA personnel and equipment in the targeted areas that intelligence reports had predicted. After a year of heavy bombing and the expenditure of millions of dollars, ARC LIGHT and ROLLING THUNDER appeared to be a failure.
Why was our intelligence so faulty? There must be a reason. As U.S. intelligence dug deeper, they noticed an increase of CHICOM message traffic during these bombing missions. Somehow the Chinese, and thus the NVA, were aware of the U.S. missions before they were launched! These messages even contained extremely detailed target information and warned VC and NVA units up to eight hours in advance.
DoD established a team to investigate this situation. The investigation was codenamed PURPLE DRAGON. PURPLE DRAGON discovered several items of interest, but one stood out. Under International Civil Aviation Organization (CAO) rules, any time that an aircraft moved out of one Air Traffic Control (ATC) jurisdiction into another it was mandated that it file a flight plan with the local ATC and let the new ATC know when and where it would be entering the new ATC’s jurisdiction. The new ATC would release a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) listing flight path, altitude, times of arrival, and other details of the specific aircraft’s itinerary. NOTAMs were available to all civil aviation authorities. This information was sent to all adjacent ATCs, so they would also be aware of the aircraft.
B-52 missions flying out of Guam and Thailand were required to file flight plans as required with the local ATC and thus to the world in the form of a NOTAM. North Vietnam was receiving these NOTAMs via the CAO and were able to extrapolate target data from the documents. This gave ample time to warn potential targeted units and locations with up to eight hours to vacate the area and make defensive preparations.
The Purple Dragon team were able to identify the vulnerability in this process. Using this example the team developed a process to review, analyze, and protect unclassified information that could be exploited by our enemies. They focused on indicators, patterns, and signatures of upcoming operations. This process became Operations Security or as we know it today: OPSEC.
The process is pretty straightforward in a military setting but not so clear in our private lives. We talk about not standing out but how do we accomplish this. What are we trying to protect, and who are our adversaries? Should these issues be addressed in our dealings on the Internet?
Let’s look at that definition again: “An analytical process used to deny an adversary critical information about our planning process and operations.”
It really is as simple as this:
- What information do you want to protect?
- Who wants your information?
- How is your information vulnerable?
- What is the risk for your information?
- How can you protect your information?
The OPSEC process consists of five steps. The text book answer is that they are not in any particular order, but personally I like the following:
- Analyze the Threat.
- Identify Critical Information
- Analyze Your Vulnerabilities.
- Assess the Risk.
- Apply OPSEC Countermeasures.
Analyze the Threat
Who are our enemies and what are they capable of? Are your enemies street criminals, identity theft scam artists, the Mafia, burglars, armed robbers, and/or terrorists? A person living in Atlanta would have a different set of threats (street criminals, et cetera) than a rancher in Arizona (drug runners from Mexico, et cetera). An owner of a logging company may be threatened by eco-terrorists, like Earth Liberation Front, where a butcher may be targeted by the Animal Liberation Front. Conduct research in your area, and determine what the local threats are to you! These may be drastically different than that of your neighbor or local friend.
When analyzing the threat, look at the group’s existence, capability, intent, history, and targeting.
Identify Critical Information
Put yourself in the mind of the adversary. As yourself, “If I were going to attack this person, what info would I need to execute the assault?” For our purposes, we will use an example of identify theft. I would want to know: name, SSN, DOB, account numbers, address, credit card numbers, POB, phone numbers, computer pass words, and other personal information. These questions are called Essential Elements of Friendly Information (EEFI). The answers to these questions are called your Critical Information List (CIL). Try to have no more than 12 items in your CIL.
Analyze Your Vulnerabilities
All of your CILs may not be vulnerable for exploitation. For example, I don’t write my passwords down, but my SSN is on my DL, even though I have the option to opt out by request (in my state). Let’s say I don’t shred my mail and I use my real name on the Internet. Are there any indicators or signatures of my operations?
Assess Risk
Not everything is at risk. We must address only those things that could affect us if compromised. This is called Risk Management vs. Risk Avoidance. A simple formula to help us with this is Threat x Vulnerability x Impact = Risk (T x V x I=R). If any one of these factors is zero, then your have no risk. Let’s say I live on a restricted high security military compound. In this situation, the threat (T) of street criminals is non-existent and is thus a “0”. Factor this in with the fact that I carry large amounts of cash and would be impacted by its loss. Use a scale of 1-5 for each element with 1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest. The carrying of cash (V) would be a 5 and the impact (I) would also be a 5. With the risk formula T x V x I=R, in this case we’d have a risk of 0 x 5 x 5=0; thus, there would be no risk. Use this formula for each of your threats and vulnerabilities to determine your unique overall risk. This also helps you to rate your risk from highest to lowest and allows you to prioritize the expenditure of your limited resources.
Apply Countermeasures
Whatever vulnerability is left after being bumped against threat and impact should be eliminated with a countermeasure. Be open minded when going through the process and try to truly take the role of the adversary.
The thing to keep in mind is that every person, group, company, or operation has a unique set of threats, EEFIs, CILs, vulnerabilities, risks, and countermeasures. There is no one size fits all.
Let’s look at an example of how this comes together for a fictitious tactical training group called the Baytown Training Group (BTG).
CRITICAL INFORMATION LIST
The CIL for BTG is:
- The names, addresses, and contact information of members
- Date time group (DTG) and specific locations of training activities
- After Action Reports (AAR) of training results that show a materiel unit weakness
- Images of members associated with BTG (Photographs may be released if member’s faces and identities are redacted and no specific mention is made of BTG. The individual member must approve the release of the redacted photograph.)
- Operation Orders (OPORD)
- Equipment load out for specific operations/missions (Generic equipment lists are releasable.)
- Communications: frequencies, call signs, cell numbers, capabilities, email addresses, and PGP encryption keys
- Supply and logistics
INDICATORS
The indicators are:
- Increased chatter on social media in the clear
- Members meeting in a public place before a training event
- Visible equipment in vehicle
- Acquisition of supplies by multiple members at the same place at the same time
- Visual compromise of operations by unauthorized personnel
- Distinctive unit insignia
THREAT
The threat is:
- Curious public
- Criminals seeking to steal weapons and equipment
- Law enforcement encumbrances
- Inadvertent disclosure or discovery during an event by unauthorized personnel
- Open source information on members and group
- Interception of communications
VULNERABILITIES
The ways that information is vulnerable for BTG:
- Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)
- Use of email between participants
- Talking in public places
- Recycle bins
- Trash
- Details on tactics, techniques, and procedures
- Social media
- Families and friends
- Interception of comms
- Visual assessment of equipment and operations
RISK
The following vulnerabilities are acceptable risks:
- Encrypted email between members containing Critical Information (CI)
- Telephone calls between members
- Conducting operations without a cover plan on secluded private property
- Use of unencrypted RF comms as long as brevity codes are used
- Use of social media as long as the forum is not available to the public and DTG and OPODR is not posted
The following vulnerabilities will be countered:
- Keep equipment covered if visible by public
- Develop a cover story if operating in public, e.g. an air soft club, geocaching, hiking group, et cetera
- Email with specific CI will be encrypted
- Brevity codes and Signal Operation Instructions will be developed when using RF comms
- Good Information Security practices will be used when handling or transporting paper media
- Practice good situational awareness and tradecraft when speaking in public
- Conduct perception management (e.g misdirection and Information Operations)
Summary
As we have learned, OPSEC is a methodological, continuous process that protects your critical information. Each person, organization, or operation will have a different CIL. OPSEC focuses on the utilization of precious time and resources to protect only that information that is critical, vulnerable, and worthwhile. Once you prioritize your information and decide what is important, it will be much easier to manage from an OPSEC perspective. OPSEC doesn’t involve protecting all information from all potential advisories.
The proper utilization of OPSEC for unique situations and day-to-day life will help create desirable outcomes, pave the way to success, and help minimize difficulties. Become familiar with the process, and get used to using it for every activity. Soon, it will become second nature, and you will have tamed the Purple Dragon!
Letter: Use Even More Caution Putting Personal Information Out There
HJL,
A study by the RAND Corporation, published in the Journal of Cybersecurity, looked at the frequency and cost of IT security failures in U.S. businesses and found that the cost of a break-in is much lower than thought, typically around $200,000 per case. With top-shelf security systems costing a lot more than that, not beefing up security looks in some ways like a smart business decision. “I’ve spent my life in security and everyone expects firms to invest more and more,” the report’s author Sasha Romanosky told The Reg. “But maybe firms are making rational investments and we shouldn’t begrudge firms for taking these actions. We all do the same thing, we minimize our costs.” Romanosky analyzed 12,000 incident reports and found that typically they only account for 0.4 percent of a company’s annual revenues. That compares to billing fraud, which averages at 5 percent, or retail shrinkage (i.e. shoplifting and insider theft), which accounts for 1.3 percent of revenues. As for reputational damage, Romanosky found that it was almost impossible to quantify. He spoke to many executives and none of them could give a reliable metric for how to measure the PR cost of a public failure of IT security systems. – P.S.
Economics and Investing:
There are huge implications to society if this forecast is even partially correct. Men Without Work. – P.S.
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As Heavy-Truck Sales Go, So Goes the Economy – G.G.
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44 Percent Hike in Taxes Covers Obama-Era Debt – B.B.
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8M Americans Paid $1.7 Billion For Not Having Obamacare – B.B.
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SurvivalBlog and its editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for details.
Odds ‘n Sods:
At Senate hearing, US State Department refuses to say how many Syrians in next year’s flow – B.B.
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Refugees from all 50 states in DC today lobbying for more $$$ and more refugees – B.B.
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Secret Report: Terrorists Running Wild Within U.S. Borders – V.E.
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Solar storm heading towards Earth threatening to break your Sky TV and mobile phones – G.G.
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Used Coffee Grounds Can Clean Contaminated Water – S.B. – D.S.
Hugh’s Quote of the Day:
“The economy is not governed with the bottom half in mind.” – William Greider
Notes for Wednesday – September 28, 2016
Today, we present another entry for Round 66 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The nearly $12,000 worth of prizes for this round include:
First Prize:
- A Tactical Self-Contained 2-Series Solar Power Generator system from Always Empowered. This compact starter power system is packaged in a wheeled O.D. green EMP-shielded Pelican hard case (a $1,700 value),
- A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate that is good for any one, two, or three day course (a $1,195 value),
- A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses, excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
- DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper with a hammer forged, chrome-lined barrel and a hard case to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel, which can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools and a compact carry capability in a hard case or 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
- Gun Mag Warehouse is providing 20 Magpul PMAG 30-rd Magazines (a value of $300) and a Gun Mag Warehouse T-Shirt; (an equivalent prize will be awarded for residents in states with magazine restrictions),
- Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
- The Ark Institute is donating a non-GMO, non-hybrid vegetable seed package (enough for two families of four) plus seed storage materials, a CD-ROM of Geri Guidetti’s book “Build Your Ark! How to Prepare for Self Reliance in Uncertain Times”, and two bottles of Potassium Iodate (a $325 retail value),
- A $250 gift certificate good for any product from Sunflower Ammo,
- KellyKettleUSA.com is donating an AquaBrick water filtration kit with a retail value of $250, and
- Two cases of meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).
Second Prize:
- A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
- A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
- A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
- A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
- A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
- A pre-selected assortment of military surplus gear from CJL Enterprize (a $300 value),
- RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site, and
- American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses.
Third Prize:
- A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21 (a $275 value),
- A $245 gift certificate from custom knife-maker Jon Kelly Designs, of Eureka, Montana,
- A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
- Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
- Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
- Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances,
- Montie Gear is donating a Precision Rest (a $249 value), and
- Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).
Round 66 ends on September 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.
Prepping Mindset: The New Normal, by D.V.
I am a one year oral cancer survivor. I survived a 13 hour operation that included removing my lower right jaw and replacing it with the tip of my shoulder blade. My operation is called a lateral neck dissection, and it sounds nicer than it felt! The lining of my cheek received a living tissue transplant from the same shoulder area. I had a tracheotomy and couldn’t speak. During the “cut, burn, and poison” treatment, I was connected to a feeding tube for four months. Months of treatment and physical therapy have helped me survive, but I am still discovering what my “new normal” will be.
How does my “new normal” relate to prepping? “New normal” is a term the cancer community gives to how well a cancer survivor functions in life compared to their original abilities. Let’s look at my experience and see if we can draw some similarities to prepping. First, let us look at expectations.
Expectations
My cancer came on me quickly and unexpectedly. That sounds similar to how the experience Preppers are preparing for is expected to come also– quickly and with little or no warning. I had a few weeks to prepare for a planned easy removal of a cancerous sore inside my cheek that was the size of a pencil’s eraser. I studied every article and video available, and I knew what to expect from this operation. The plan was that doctors would take a piece of my forearm tissue to provide tissue and artery replacement. I didn’t count on the team of doctors stepping out of the operating room and gaining permission from Nancy to remove my jaw because cancer had spread like a wildfire out of control. The result was that I woke up with the very things I was told not to expect. I couldn’t speak because of a tracheotomy. I had a feeding tube, a different donor site for tissue, a longer hospital stay, and a bigger struggle than I was expecting. As preppers we should be prepared. However, realize that you might wake up one day and all of your preps are not going to match the tragedy unfolding in front of you. How will you respond? Will you listen to the new diagnosis and respond to a revised plan, or will you go negative because things are not working according to your plan? It is good and Godly to prepare but also to approach calamity with a discerning eye and adjust to the “new normal”!
If you read the Internet or actually talk to cancer survivors, you soon find they learned early on to have no or few expectations. Read the Internet or actually talk to Preppers and you may experience too many preconceived notions as to what the future dilemmas in life will be. A cancer patient’s day is filled with doctor visits, hospital stays, and medical tests. Ask a room full of medical staffers to predict your results, estimate your length of stay, or pre-plan your treatment, and you will get a room full of differing answers. Our mind tries to grasp at all of the “grey” issues and sort them into black and white pigeon holes. You must lower expectations, live in the moment, and reactively respond to current situations as they occur. Experience is the only teacher that quizzes us first and then gives us the answer. Prepping should be an outline that must be revised from time to time to match the present state of conditions.
Response to New State of Conditions
Now let’s discuss your ability to respond to the “new normal” state of conditions. Let’s say you’re well prepared but out of shape. How well will you survive exposed to the elements or the arduous task of just getting by in a world without structure? My operation was followed by a four week recovery at home before starting my seven week regimen of chemotherapy and radiation. Again, this was another unexpected addition to my treatment that I was told I wouldn’t need before my cancer was seen during my operation. You stashed your preps, but they are unobtainable. How well have you practiced your simple survival skills in order to get by with little to no resources? I knew these four weeks were an opportunity to build my strength before the rigorous treatment schedule. I walked to get in shape. My first walk was to the end of my driveway. Every day I doubled my distance until I was walking three miles. Physical fitness was key to my surviving treatment, but it also killed me more than once. During treatment I kept up a pretty rigorous training program, but as chemotherapy coursed through my body and radiation accumulated in dosage my white cell count diminished and I walked myself into infections and stays at the hospital in isolation. Once I came home to recover, I was in isolation due to risk of infection. I refused to adjust to another “new normal” situation and modify my physical activity. Do you know to recognize your body’s signs of distress like dehydration, hyperthermia, and heat exhaustion? My house has more than a few recreational distractions, and the isolation was almost more than I could handle. I wonder how many Preppers will unlock the door to their subterranean bug out bunker too early and walk into the remnants of a plague borne demise due to lack of human contact?
Let’s say that you survived the initial WROL, EMP strike, plague, et cetera, and now you are aware of the “new normal”. Your preps are in place, but you have an accident and now you are disabled. I used to hunt, but my shoulder is so disabled that I cannot climb a tree stand or withstand the recoil of a shotgun. I am revising my weapon of choice and might switch to a crossbow with a cocking winch. I already have a blind, so I will use that instead of the tree stand. In your disabled state, can you fire your weapons one handed and accurately hit a target with your weak hand? I can, but I won’t gamble that I can hunt like that. What if your dominant shooting eye is injured? You survived, you are healthy, or are you? Are you truly functional in this “new normal” condition? How do you know? I suggest you employ SWOT.
SWOT
SWOT is an acronym for Strength, Opportunity, Weakness, and Threat. Months after my surgery and while I was recovering, an unscrupulous tree cutter left my suburban backyard a mountain of brush and full length felled trees and just walked away. I am so bull headed that I took it upon myself to clean up this mess. I bought a small electric chain saw that was too heavy for me to pick up. I sat myself down in the brushpile and threw the saw as high as I could. No matter where it landed, I cut brush. When I was too tired to saw, I stacked brush and burned. I was still suffering a loss of balance and would fall throughout the day, but I kept going. Soon I built up enough strength to use a gas powered 20-inch chain saw. Then, I started milling large 24-inch diameter logs with a beam machine. Does that sound impressive? It was until I fooled myself into thinking I could move 15-foot long logs across my yard and stack four foot logs four high. I now have a bicep tear, collar bone tear, and shoulder tear, and I am going back to a surgeon because ultrasound guided large mass cortisone shots failed. If I had reviewed SWOT, I most definitely would have stopped at clearing brush and brought in a saw mill to finish clearing the logs. My point is that you must not let your expectations determine the outcome. You must constantly revise your plans using SWOT. SWOT is great for comparisons. If you plot a chart with a column for each comparison, you can quickly assess which action to take. Keep it simple and you can review SWOT in your mind.
My ability to function is quite remarkable in spite of what I have experienced. I would not wish my cancer journey on another person. At the same time, I would not want to give up my new understanding of love and life if it meant not having cancer. Once things go bad, I hope you can use your end of the world scenario for a better purpose. Do not waste it. You may find everyday tasks are much harder, but if you adapt you might gain a deeper appreciation for life and those around you. Life might not be as bad as you planned for, and you might see the best in people if you are looking for it. You will develop a new community, based around your hardships and your blessings. There was a saying in WWII that there were no atheists in foxholes. I can tell you from my own experience that God and the power of prayer is alive and strong in the rooms of cancer patients!



